Countdown to Big Fed Decision; Tupperware Files for Bankruptcy

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 0:00:10.080 --> 0:00:11.920 Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. 0:00:11.800 --> 0:00:15.000 And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. 0:00:15.120 --> 0:00:18.080 Karin, we are hours away now from the most anticipated 0:00:18.120 --> 0:00:21.800 FED decision in years. After holding borrowing costs at a 0:00:21.880 --> 0:00:24.520 two decade high for more than a year, the Fed 0:00:24.720 --> 0:00:28.680 is widely expected to cut rates at least a quarter point. Today, 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:31.880 we get a preview from Bloomberg's Michael McKee. 0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:34.720 A FED rate cut would be the first since twenty twenty, 0:00:34.760 --> 0:00:37.479 when the Central Bank took rates to zero during COVID. 0:00:38.000 --> 0:00:41.280 The pandemic snarled supply lines and the government provided extra 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:45.000 cash to consumers. The combination touched off the highest inflation 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:48.160 since the nineteen eighties, and the FED took rates back 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:50.559 up again to their current range of five and a 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:53.319 quarter to five and a half percent. Hand Lists are 0:00:53.320 --> 0:00:55.560 divided over whether we'll see a half point or a 0:00:55.640 --> 0:00:59.320 quarter point cut today. That will depend on whether policymakers 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:02.920 see the risks tilted more towards an economic slowdown or 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:06.920 to reaccelerating inflation. One thing that is certain, more rate 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:09.759 cuts are to come. The Fed will suggest how many 0:01:09.920 --> 0:01:12.959 with a new dot plot today as well Michael McKee 0:01:12.959 --> 0:01:13.800 Bloomberg Radio. 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:16.640 All right, Mike, thank you. So will it be twenty 0:01:16.720 --> 0:01:20.480 five or fifty? We asked Laura Raim, chief US economist 0:01:20.560 --> 0:01:25.040 at FS Investments, Robert Teeter, chief investment strategist at Silvercrest 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:29.640 Asset Management, and Michael Darta, chief economist at Roth Capital Partners. 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:33.840 I am in the twenty five basis point camp, but 0:01:34.040 --> 0:01:37.560 I cannot recall a FED meeting where things have been 0:01:37.680 --> 0:01:40.280 so up in the air and it is a really 0:01:40.319 --> 0:01:42.800 close call. There are great reasons for them to do 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:46.160 a larger cut. I also can't remember a FED meeting 0:01:46.480 --> 0:01:49.800 where markets have been so split going into the decision. 0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:52.160 Half the market's going to be surprised either way. 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:54.480 I don't think there's a whole lot of difference between 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:56.120 twenty five and fifty basis points. 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:56.280 Here. 0:01:56.280 --> 0:01:58.880 We're sort of tracking to know maybe sixty percent odds 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:00.720 of a fifty basis point cut, But it's all in 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:03.440 the communication as to why they're making that cut. So 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:05.280 is it tilted more at We've made a lot of 0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:07.600 progress on inflation. I think that's a hard story to 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:09.200 tell me. You've had three months in a row of 0:02:09.240 --> 0:02:12.200 two point six percent or so on their preferred metric 0:02:12.240 --> 0:02:12.840 of PC eight. 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:16.880 Markets are thinking that maybe the FED is sending a 0:02:16.880 --> 0:02:20.200 signal here or at least much more open to starting 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:23.320 with fifty rather than twenty five. And if the view 0:02:23.360 --> 0:02:26.840 of the committee is that they're substantially above neutral, we 0:02:26.919 --> 0:02:30.040 can debate neutral. But the highest estimates of neutral are 0:02:30.040 --> 0:02:32.720 about one hundred bases points below where the FED is, 0:02:33.280 --> 0:02:35.920 and you have markets pricing in a seventy one percent 0:02:35.960 --> 0:02:40.559 probability of fifty starting with twenty five. I think Carrie's 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:43.120 significant risks for the FED, and that. 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:47.800 Was Rock Capital Partner chief economist Michael Darta, silvercrisht Asset Managements, 0:02:47.919 --> 0:02:51.639 Robert Teeter, and Laura Ray at FS Investments. Right now, 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:54.120 markets are pricing and a cut closer to fifty than 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:55.960 twenty five basis points Karen. 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:58.800 A couple of Wall Street Titans are weighing in as well. 0:02:58.840 --> 0:03:03.279 Here's JP Morgan, Chase CEO, Jamie Diamond and Bridgewater Associates 0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:04.400 founder Ray DALLYO. 0:03:04.720 --> 0:03:05.640 I mean they're gonna do it. 0:03:05.680 --> 0:03:07.320 You know, A twenty five or fifty basis poicte not 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:10.760 gonna be earth shattering doesn't mean that much. 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:11.960 I mean, I think they need to do it. 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:13.960 You know, I think j Pellow does do a. 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:16.600 Great job, but it's a minor thing. 0:03:16.760 --> 0:03:19.560 What does that that have to do? FED has to 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:24.640 keep interest rates high enough to satisfy the creditors that 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:27.760 they're going to get a real return without having them 0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:30.959 so high that the debtors have the problem. So, now, 0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:33.160 if we're looking at this, whether it's twenty five or 0:03:33.160 --> 0:03:35.920 fifty basis points, twenty five basis points would be the 0:03:36.000 --> 0:03:37.480 right thing to do if you look at the whole 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:38.360 picture as a whole. 0:03:38.760 --> 0:03:41.760 And that was Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dallyo and JP 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:46.040 Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond for full FED coverage. Stick 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:49.200 with Bloomberg for a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. The 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:52.600 FED decides it's at one thirty this afternoon, Wall Street 0:03:52.640 --> 0:03:55.000 Time on Bloomberg Radio and television. 0:03:55.400 --> 0:03:57.960 Now, Nathan, let's get the latest on the presidential race. 0:03:58.080 --> 0:04:00.800 Both former President Trump and Vice President and Harris are 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:03.960 back out on the campaign trail after the assassination attempt 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:07.400 last weekend. Trump is holding a rally on Long Island 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:10.480 in New York today. Ahead of it, he's promising to 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:13.040 bring back a tax break that he reigned in as 0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:16.680 president the state and local tax deduction. They got reaction 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:19.640 from Republican Senator Bell Haggerty, who sits on the Senate 0:04:19.680 --> 0:04:20.520 Banking Committee. 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:22.599 I haven't had an opportunity to discuss this directly with 0:04:22.640 --> 0:04:24.520 President Trump, but I think this was happening in the 0:04:24.560 --> 0:04:28.120 context of a huge rally that will be underway there 0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:30.440 in New York. I know it's going to be very popular. 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:30.680 In New York. 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:33.920 Tax cuts in general in this environment, given the inflation 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:37.640 that we've all experienced, are very appealing to the American public. 0:04:38.520 --> 0:04:40.960 Senator Haggerty was a guest on Balance of Power on 0:04:41.000 --> 0:04:44.520 Bloomberry TV and Radio, and Trump's twenty seventeen tax law 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:48.240 limited the popular deduction and high tax states to ten 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:51.919 thousand dollars. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:56.000 repealing the salt cap would cost one point two trillion 0:04:56.080 --> 0:04:57.400 dollars over ten years. 0:04:57.520 --> 0:05:00.279 Well Karen Vice President Kamala Harris is proposing a cap 0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:02.919 of her own on the cost of childcare. She says 0:05:02.960 --> 0:05:05.360 no working family should pay more than seven percent of 0:05:05.400 --> 0:05:08.480 their income on raising a child. Harris made the comment 0:05:08.600 --> 0:05:11.200 at an event with the National Association of Black Journalists 0:05:11.240 --> 0:05:14.080 where She also talked about the attempt on Donald Trump's life. 0:05:14.400 --> 0:05:16.039 I checked on and see if he was okay. 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:17.800 Yeah, And. 0:05:19.120 --> 0:05:21.680 I told him what I have said publicly. There's no 0:05:21.760 --> 0:05:24.920 place for political violence in our country. 0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:28.640 Vice President Harris also alluded to Trump's debate comments about 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:33.000 Haitian migrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio, without mentioning Trump directly. 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:36.440 She said candidates have a responsibility when they're bestowed with 0:05:36.480 --> 0:05:37.680 a big microphone. 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:40.240 Well, Nathan, let's turn to the Middle East now. And 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:43.400 pagers used by hundreds of members of the militant group 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:48.560 Hesblah exploded nearly simultaneously on Tuesday in Lebanon in Syria, 0:05:48.920 --> 0:05:51.920 killing at least nine people, including an eight year old girl, 0:05:52.040 --> 0:05:56.160 and wounding several thousand. Hesbela and the Lebanese government blamed 0:05:56.279 --> 0:05:59.440 Israel for what appeared to be a sophisticated remote attack. 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:03.440 Israel declined to comment. Bloomberg's Ethan Bronner is in Tel 0:06:03.440 --> 0:06:04.200 Aviv with Moore. 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:08.520 It looks almost certain that the Israelis, through massade or 0:06:08.520 --> 0:06:12.559 eighty two hundred, one of their major intelligence organizations got 0:06:12.600 --> 0:06:17.520 into the distribution or manufacturing chain of these pagers and 0:06:17.760 --> 0:06:22.159 installed small amounts of explosives in each pager, as well 0:06:22.200 --> 0:06:25.479 as a trigger inside that worked so that once a 0:06:25.520 --> 0:06:30.440 message was sent, the message was the trigger that exploded 0:06:30.440 --> 0:06:31.560 those little devices. 0:06:31.839 --> 0:06:35.760 Bloomberg's Israel bureau chief Ethan Bronner notes that American officials 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:38.960 said that the US was neither involved nor informed in 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:40.679 advance of the pagers incident. 0:06:40.960 --> 0:06:44.240 In company news, Karen a legal victory for Google. It's 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:46.520 won a court fight with the European Union over a 0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:49.680 one point seven billion dollar fine for thwarting competition for 0:06:49.760 --> 0:06:53.000 online ads. Judges at the EU's General Court back to 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:55.359 the Alphabet Units challenge to a fine doled out in 0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:58.960 twenty nineteen, saying regulators made mistakes in their probe. The 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:01.520 decision comes a week after the EUS Top Court ruled 0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:04.440 against Google's attempt to avoid a nearly two point seven 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:08.120 billion dollar anti trust penalty for favoring its own product 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:10.400 results on search Well. 0:07:10.440 --> 0:07:14.200 An iconic American company has found for bankruptcy. Nathan and 0:07:14.240 --> 0:07:17.840 Bloomberg's John Tucker is here with Moore and John. I'm 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.640 willing to bet that there's one of their products in 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:22.120 just about everyone's kitchen. 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:25.160 Here's a hint, Karen put a lid on it. We're 0:07:25.160 --> 0:07:29.239 talking about Tupperware brands. For decades, they dominated the world 0:07:29.240 --> 0:07:32.360 of food storage. Toperware's founder, Earl Tupper this was back 0:07:32.400 --> 0:07:35.040 in nineteen forty six, introduced the plastic products to the 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:39.600 public and patented their flexible airtight seal. The brand's goods 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:42.360 later flooded into American homes, largely by the way of 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:47.520 independent sales Tupperware parties hosted in suburban homes. Tupperware has 0:07:47.560 --> 0:07:51.160 filed for Chapter eleven bankruptcy protection, their listing assets of 0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:53.880 up to one billion dollars and liabilities of up to 0:07:53.960 --> 0:07:56.840 ten billion. The company's going to seek court approval to 0:07:56.880 --> 0:07:59.840 facilitate a sale of the business, and they will continue 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:03.720 operating during the bankruptcy proceedings. This all follows months of 0:08:03.800 --> 0:08:07.680 negotiations between Tupperware and its lenders over how to manage 0:08:07.720 --> 0:08:10.680 hundreds of millions of dollars and loans. In New York 0:08:10.720 --> 0:08:12.920 on John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio. 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:14.640 And John It's an end of anier on Wall Street 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:17.240 as well. Steve Cohen stepping away from the trading floor, 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:19.920 the billionaire hedge fund founder will remain Point A seventy 0:08:19.920 --> 0:08:22.680 two Asset Management's co chief investment officer, but he's no 0:08:22.760 --> 0:08:25.880 longer investing client capital, the firm says. The sixty eight 0:08:25.960 --> 0:08:28.640 year old is instead focused on driving Point seventy two's 0:08:28.680 --> 0:08:31.800 growth and mentoring and developing talent. Cohen owns the New 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:34.559 York Mets. He's been one of the most dominant forces 0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:37.360 in hedge funds for more than three decades, building his 0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:39.840 firm into one of the world's biggest. After a costly 0:08:39.880 --> 0:08:45.360 insider trading scandal, time now for. 0:08:45.320 --> 0:08:47.360 A look at some of the other stories making news 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:49.080 in New York and around the world. And for that 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:52.360 we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr Michael, good Morning, Good. 0:08:52.120 --> 0:08:56.000 Morning, Karen Sean. Dinny Combs was denied bail and ordered 0:08:56.000 --> 0:08:58.800 maya judge in a federal court in Manhattan to remain 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:03.440 in prison until his trial on sex trafficking and racketeering charges. 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:07.840 A newly unsealed federal indictment alleges he engaged in kidnapping, 0:09:07.920 --> 0:09:11.600 forced labor, and more. The fifty four year old music mogul, 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:16.120 who has pleaded not guilty, was arrested late Monday. Prosecutors 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:19.560 alleged that Combs used his business empire to force women 0:09:19.600 --> 0:09:24.440 to engage in sexual acts at events. US attorney Damian Williams. 0:09:24.000 --> 0:09:26.800 As alleged when Combs didn't get his way, he was 0:09:26.880 --> 0:09:31.680 violent and he subjected victims of physical, emotional, and verbal 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:34.840 abuse so that they would participate in the freak offs. 0:09:35.720 --> 0:09:38.480 US attorney Williams says it was there that Combs was 0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:42.000 violent toward the women, including dragging them by the hair. 0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:46.679 After the hearing, defense attorney Marc Agnifilio says his client 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:49.000 intends to fight the case to the end. 0:09:49.360 --> 0:09:52.480 He's been looking forward to this day. He's been looking 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:54.960 forward to clearing his name, and he's going to clear 0:09:55.000 --> 0:09:55.319 his name. 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:59.640 Defense attorney Agnifilio will be back in court today for 0:09:59.720 --> 0:10:02.680 a to get Combs out on bail. The charges come 0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:06.520 after Homeland Security rated Combs's homes in Los Angeles and 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:11.640 Miami last March. Movie producer Harvey Weinstein, whose alleged sexual 0:10:11.679 --> 0:10:15.200 misconduct helps spark the Me Too movement, will be arraigned 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:19.160 today on new charges. The arraignment in Manhattan will clear 0:10:19.240 --> 0:10:22.160 up issues that resulted in a New York State appeals 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:26.280 court overturning Weinstein's original conviction. The appeals court ruled that 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:30.120 the jury heard evidence that should have been inadmissible because 0:10:30.160 --> 0:10:34.000 it was involved in allegations from other women who never 0:10:34.040 --> 0:10:37.600 brought charges. All but two Republicans in the Senate voted 0:10:37.640 --> 0:10:41.400 to block a bill that would have ensured nationwide access 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:45.480 to in vitro fertilization. Democrats had brought it back to 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:50.400 the floor after Republicans previously blocked it from advancing in June. 0:10:50.520 --> 0:10:54.240 After the vote, Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth of Illinois said 0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:58.320 IVF is now threatened by former President Trump, who appointed 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:01.560 three of the six Supreme Court justices who voted to 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:02.840 overturn Roe v. Wade. 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:06.280 He is the reason that IPF is in danger. He 0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:10.040 is to blame. He and every other Republican who cares 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:13.000 more about staying good with Trump than about doing good 0:11:13.000 --> 0:11:16.080 for the Americans. They are supposed to be serving global. 0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:18.319 News twenty four hours a day and whenever you wanted 0:11:18.360 --> 0:11:20.760 with the Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Michael Barr. This is 0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:21.640 Bloomberg Cart. 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:28.319 All right, Michael Barr, thank you time now for the 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:30.679 Bloomberg Sports Update with John Stashaur. 0:11:30.800 --> 0:11:32.200 John, Good morning, Good morning, Karen. 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:35.400 Mets and Yankees fans both enjoyed last night their teams 0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:37.839 won both by nine runs, and the teams they wanted 0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:40.720 to see lose did just that for the Mets ten 0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:42.840 to one over Washington at City Field. The Mets scored 0:11:42.920 --> 0:11:45.679 four times in the thirty eight, added home runs by 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:49.400 Francisco Alvarez and Pete Alonzo. Tyler McGill six innings, allowed 0:11:49.440 --> 0:11:52.199 just two hits nowhere and wrungs. Meanwhile, Atlanta Blue of 0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:54.840 five to one lead, lost six to five at Cincinnati. 0:11:55.120 --> 0:11:59.160 Arizona lost eight to two at Colorado. Wildcard standings now 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:01.960 have San Diego followed by the Mets and Diamondbacks, who 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:05.240 are tied. The Brains are now two games behind. Yankees 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:07.800 won eleven to two at Seattle. Aaron Judge got him 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:10.360 going before and out was recorded. Judge with a two 0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:13.480 run double. He added a two run single in inning later, 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:16.040 Austin Wells later with a three run double, and one 0:12:16.160 --> 0:12:19.320 Soto with his fortieth home run two hundredth of his career. 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:22.520 Luis Hill got his fourteenth win. Marcus Stroman, just moved 0:12:22.559 --> 0:12:24.400 to the bullpen, got the save since he worked the 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:28.040 last three innings. Slumping Baltimore lost to the Giants ten 0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:30.640 to nothing. The Yanks are four games ahead, their largest 0:12:30.720 --> 0:12:33.439 leads since June seventh, and Judge knows that if the 0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:36.560 Yanks win tonight, they're assured of at least a wild card. 0:12:37.800 --> 0:12:39.959 Well, we'd definitely be excited, you know, especially after the 0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:43.400 season we had last year, missing out in the postseason. 0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:46.560 That's you know what we came into the season to do. 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:49.360 You know, getting into the postseason gus ourselves an opportunity 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:51.480 to out there and won a World Series. So I 0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:53.480 thought it'll be step one, but you know, we gotta 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:54.120 get there first. 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:57.520 Also, last nine, the Dodgers lost Joeyo tanis forty eighth 0:12:57.559 --> 0:12:59.560 home run as he nears the fifty to fifty club. 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:01.559 Stay shower, Bloomberg Sports Canada. 0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:08.320 Nathan Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, 0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:11.400 and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:14.760 Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:17.200 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. We are hours away for 0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:20.319 one of the most highly anticipated and hotly debated Fed 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:24.000 policy decisions in years. J Powell and company are widely 0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:26.920 expected to deliver a cut this afternoon, but just how 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:29.440 big it will be remains an open question. 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:32.600 A gradual approach is what they're going to pursue. 0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:35.439 Twenty five basis points is going to be dependent would 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:36.200 be the right thing to do. 0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:38.400 If they don't know fifty tomorrow, I'll be shocked. 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:41.680 Now tomorrow is today for former New York FED President 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:44.760 Bill Dudley, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio, and Ed Heyman of 0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:47.760 Evercors you just heard there, joining us now for more 0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:52.640 on this debate. Veronica Clark, us economist at City Veronica, 0:13:52.760 --> 0:13:54.760 good morning. I think you've been on both sides of 0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:56.559 this debate. We're one of the first out of the 0:13:56.600 --> 0:13:59.440 gate with a fifty basis point call after July jobs. 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:01.640 Where do you sit now on FED day? 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:04.400 Yeah, good morning, Thank you for having me. I don't 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:07.160 think anyone should have, you know, too high of a conviction, 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:10.400 and what will happen today? Of course, we're repricing essentially 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:13.600 fifty to fifty chance of a twenty five or fifty. Yeah, 0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:15.880 we were initially expecting that this would be a fifty 0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:18.520 basis point rate cut, and then we saw the CPI 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:21.240 data last week and there were some stronger elements of that. 0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:24.640 Maybe twenty five is now the path of least resistance 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:28.360 in terms of an agreement amongst Seed officials, so expecting 0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:30.480 in twenty five today, but I think it will be 0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:33.800 a very duvish decision, keeping all options on the table 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:36.520 for future meetings, and I do think we are probably 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:38.640 in store for some big rate cuts down the line. 0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:41.920 What makes you think that, Faronicam, Yeah, it. 0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:44.120 Essentially comes down to what we're seeing in the labor 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:47.720 market and the said reaction to that labor market data. 0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:50.440 You know, we know already that FED officials see the 0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:54.360 other inflation mandate and employment mandate really imbalance now, and 0:14:54.400 --> 0:14:57.080 the risks are very quickly shifting in favor of that 0:14:57.240 --> 0:15:00.280 employment mandate. We just see hiring pulling back, of course, 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:02.880 the unemployment rate rising, the pace of job growth flowing. 0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:06.960 We think that will continue in the next two jobs 0:15:06.960 --> 0:15:09.200 reports that we're going to get before the November decision, 0:15:09.840 --> 0:15:11.480 and I think we'll see more weakness and that will 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:13.840 that will let them, you know, do fifty at that meeting. 0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:16.280 Also, what do you think the market reaction will be 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:19.000 if the Fed doesn't go big today? With this debate 0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:22.440 roiling for so many days? Now, what's the market talking 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:24.000 itself into with this debate? 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:26.840 Yeah, I mean, we we luckily do have you know, 0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:30.200 updated summary of economic projections today. So that's the updated 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:32.760 dot plots for you know, where FED officials see rates 0:15:32.760 --> 0:15:34.800 at the end of the year. Of course we'll have 0:15:34.840 --> 0:15:36.720 the press conference from Chair Powell and all of that 0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:39.560 will will matter if it's not a fifty basis point 0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:41.680 cut today it's just twenty five. I think there are 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:44.840 ways that Fed officials can be sufficiently dubbish, you know, 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:48.680 keep what is priced priced in already because you do risk. 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.080 You know, if you're doing too little, you risk may 0:15:51.080 --> 0:15:54.080 be looking complacent, looking out of touch, looking like you're 0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:56.680 behind the curve and risk assets. I don't think we 0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:59.640 would love that, you know, we would see yields, you know, 0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:03.000 for out moving lower on almost a policy mistake kind 0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:05.520 of pricing. So I do you think Charpala has to 0:16:05.520 --> 0:16:07.840 be sufficiently dubash today. I think they can do that. 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:10.600 I think they'll show maybe one hundred basis point total 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:13.360 of kutzper for this year on the dot plot. But 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:14.440 we'll we'll see what happened. 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:17.520 This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:21.120 the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:24.160 Look for us on your podcast feed at six am. 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:27.880 Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:29.120 get your podcasts. 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:31.960 You can also listen live each morning starting at five 0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:34.600 am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:37.480 in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:40.440 Bloomberg one oh six to one in Boston, and Bloomberg 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:42.240 ninety sixty in San Francisco. 0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:45.760 Our flagship New York station is also available on your 0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:51.240 Amazon Alexa devices. 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