818: 15 Transactions for Week 7

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha, j J Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode eight hundred and eighteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Before we get into the transactions this week, I want to send another reminder about the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. With the Patreon, you get live stream q and as with yours, truly weekly rankings and tiers, rest of season rankings and tears, a great discord community, and much more. You can learn more about it over on Lateround dot com.

00:00:41
Speaker 2: Let's get to these.

00:00:41
Speaker 1: Transactions by Jerome Ford an ad Kareem Hunt.

00:00:49
Speaker 2: Now.

00:00:49
Speaker 1: Like most buy and sell transactions, there's some nuance to this one. Back when Nick Chubb suffered a season ending injury, one of the biggest question marks about Jerome Ford was how he'd react to a really tough stretch of games. Chubb got hurt in Week two against Pittsburgh. From Week three to Week six, the Browns would face the Titans, Ravens, and forty nine ers. That wasn't the easiest schedule in the world. Ford has come through with three top twenty four performances at running back during that stretch, and moving forward, Cleveland has a much easier schedule. Over their next three games, they get the Colt, Seahawks and Cardinals. Those are three teams that rank his top eleven favorable matchups for running backs and adjusted points allowed From now through the end of the year, Cleveland running backs have the second best schedule according to my numbers. That's a big reason to want both Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt on your roster right now. But I know what you're thinking, JJ, why should we be buying into Jerome Ford after what Kareem Hunt did in week six? And the reason I think that you might be able to is because the manager, the person who has Jerome Ford, they might be a little bit worried. If you're trading for Ford a is pre week six price tag, this might be more of a hold transaction as opposed to a buye. But people with Jerome Ford might be a little bit nervous right now because in week six Kareem Hunt had sixteen PPR points, Jerome Ford had eleven, and there are signs that Hunt's going to take on a decent role in that Cleveland backfield. He saw his route participation go from about fifteen percent pre Week five by to thirty three percent in week six, and then Jerome Ford's ended up dropping from about sixty percent to thirty three percent. That's not some insignificant thing, and it makes Kareem Hunt something that you won on your roster. But Ford still ended up seeing fifty eight point six percent of the team's running back rushes in Week six. That was his highest running back rush here of the season. And let's just try to be objective here. We're working off of a one game sample. This trend of Kareem Hunt seeing more work through the air, seeing more work in this backfield. It's not really confirmed yet. It's only been one game, and as we know, a Kareem Hunt injury would really unleash Jerome Ford.

00:03:07
Speaker 2: There's contingent upside.

00:03:09
Speaker 1: But I do think that if you're going to trade for Jerome Ford right now, it's not the cleanest transaction in the world. It's not some obvious, screaming buy. It's one where you're buying into Cleveland's upcoming schedule, and it's one where you're buying into the potential that your league mate is nervous about Ford. If that ladder point is not true, if your league mate is not worried about Jerome Ford, then trading for Ford right now probably not worth your time. But you can still add Kareem Hunt off waivers this week. Essentially, if you can trade some bench assets for Jerome Ford right now, I'd be all for it. I'd lean into this idea that Kareem Hunt may take over this backfield because the schedule's good and Jerome Ford has not been bad since Nick Chubb's gone down. Add Devin Singletary, so Damian Pierce's rough sea got even rougher in week six. He hadn't seen big target share numbers all season long, but he was at least averaging a running back rush share per game rate of about seventy two percent from Week one to Week five. In Week five, specifically, Damian Pierce saw every single Houston Texans running back rush. That all changed in Week six. Pierce saw his percentage of running back rushes fall to just fifty percent against the Saints, and he didn't see a single target. His route participation was the lowest of the season. That's because Houston decided to use Devin Singletary. More, Singletary hit season highs and running back rush share, snapshare, target share, and route participation. That's noteworthy, and it's especially noteworthy when you consider that the Texans were in a neutral and positive game script. That type of game script historically had favored Damian Pierce, but this week it favored Devin Singletary. Now, maybe this will end up being an outlier for this backfield, but it could also be the start of Devin Singletary being a more valuable fantasy asset than Damian Pierce. Now this week they're on a bye, but Singletary's definitely worth the ad through the buy, and it's nice that they have that bye week because you might be able to get him cheaper.

00:05:17
Speaker 2: Sell.

00:05:18
Speaker 1: Brian Robinson. Brian Robinson started his season off really, really strong. He scored thirteen point six and twenty eight point nine PPR points, but he's been pretty average since then. He's averages ten and a half PPR points per game. A big problem for him is Antonio Gibson. Gibson's basically been playing a receiving role out of that backfield all season long. Now, Robinson did hit a season high fifty percent route participation in Week six, but he's yet to see a double digit percentage target chair in a game all season. That's obviously a problem, as is the fact that Washington is one of the tougher schedules from here on out according to adjustin Fantasy points allowed for running backs, and in the Fantasy playoffs, specifically in weeks fifteen through seventeen, they get the Rams, Jets, and forty nine ers. Those aren't very desirable matchups. I think Robinson should be fine as like an RB three, maybe a low end RB two with some spiked weeks. But if someone in your league's willing to pay up after a reasonable Week six outing, I'd be open to trading Brian Robinson away. Add Curtis Samuel. So if you listen to this podcast and you listen to The Sleeper Show, then you might already have Curtis Samuel on your roster because he was featured on The Sleeper Show last week. He had a nice slot match up against Atlanta and he came through with a four catch forty two yard one touchdown performance. Samuel's peripherals aren't amazing. He's seen a fifteen and a half percent target chair in the season, over his last three that target chair has been eighteen percent. But the thing is Washington's been the third past heaviest team in football this year. So that target chair, that fifteen sixteen, seventeen percent target chair, that's on a good number of pass attempts. Now, we shouldn't assume that he's going to score each week, but he is seeing desirable matchups week in a week out out of the slot. He's a solid bench player to have during this by week period. Drop Johan Dotson. I think one of the biggest surprises of this fantasy season is Johan Dotson's lack of performance. If he finishes like a wide receiver three wide receiver four, it would be disappointing, but it wouldn't be that big of a surprise. He was basically being drafted as a wide receiver three, but right now Dotson's more like a wide receiver six or a wide receiver seven. Now, he's had an identical target chair to Curtis Samuel this year, but he's been way less productive, and after seeing target shairs of just ten point four percent and four point eight percent over his last two games, I understand that it's getting very, very difficult to keep holding on to Johan Dotson, and then on top of that, Washington wide receivers won't have it easy from now through the end of the year. They have a bottom ten schedule according to adjustin Fantasy points allowed, and they've got one of the worst playoff schedules that you can find. Curtis Samuel right now is at least giving us something. That's why he's an ad. Dotson just doesn't have that much going for him. All that he has going for him is how we felt before the season started that he was a really talented wide receiver who could potentially break out this year. But as it stands through six weeks, that breakout clearly isn't happening. If you're in a shallower format definitely a ten or an eight team league, but maybe even a twelve team league, you can drop Johan Dotson. Hold Marvin Mims. Now, look, I sit on my couch and I watch football every Sunday, just like you do, and just like you, I'm critical of what coaches are doing, but I understand I'm not the one who's coaching that team. I don't want to be overly critical when I'm not the one making those decisions. But there's one thing I will be overly critical about Sean Payton's usage of Marvin Mims. Mims is second on the Broncos right now in receiving yards. That's after six weeks. He's only run fifty one routes and he's second on the team in receiving yards. For some context, Marvin mimms fifty one routes run, Courtland Sutton one hundred and eighty five routes run, Jerry Judy one hundred and forty two routes run. Among all players in the league with fifty plus routes run, Marvin Mims trails only Tyreek Hill in yards per route run. I know you're sick of hearing about this. I know the production is not matching. It's just absolutely crazy that this guy can't find the field more.

00:09:39
Speaker 2: The Broncos were horrible.

00:09:41
Speaker 1: In Week six and Marvin Mims ran seven routes. Despite all of this, right now is not the time to drop Marvin Mims because the Jerry Judy trade rumors are really, really strong, and if a deal gets done that could truly unleash Marvin Mims. I'd probably even get cosider MIM's a by candidate right now, so definitely don't drop him. Add Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell. So, Christian McCaffrey left San Francisco's Week six game against Cleveland with a oblique injury. Fortunately, though Twitter doctors don't seem to think that it's that serious, but as we know, anything can happen with injuries. There's still a chance that he can miss Week seven, and if he does, Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell are gonna have to step up. Mason ended up playing fifteen snaps to Mitchell seven in Week six, but Mitchell is also coming off of an injury of his own. I think if you were to look at both of these running backs, Mason would be the guy to prioritize over Mitchell just given our most recent sample. But I think that if CMC misses time, we're looking at a split backfield. But regardless, given how efficient the San Francisco offense is, you should be adding these guys this week because of this CMC injury. By Brock Purty, So, speaking of the forty nine ers, I think that you can go.

00:11:01
Speaker 2: After Brock Party this week too.

00:11:03
Speaker 1: He scored just seven points seven standard Fantasy points in Week six That was the first time in his career that he failed to hit fourteen fantasy points while throwing the ball twenty or more times in a game. But it came against one of the best defenses in football with two of his biggest weapons sidelined with injury because Deebo Samuel was hurt in that game too, Brock Purty is gonna bounce back, and he could bounce back in a big way. Not only did the forty nine Ers get a more favorable matchup this week against Minnesota, but San Francisco Quarterbacks currently had the second best schedule from here on out according to adjusted Fantasy points allowed, and in two of their three playoff matchups, they'll get the Cardinals and the Commanders.

00:11:43
Speaker 2: No, I don't think brock party is going to be a.

00:11:45
Speaker 1: High end QB one in fantasy football, but a high end QB two, maybe even a low end QB one absolutely in his range of outcomes. Ad Craig Reynolds. David Montgomery landed awkwardly on the ball on Sunday. He hurt his ribs as a result, and that could sideline him and that would lead to more Craig Reynolds in this Lion's offense. Now, the last time we saw Montgomery miss a game, that was back in Week three. The Detroit backfield saw Jamir Gibbs with a sixty eight percent running back rush. There he carried the ball seventeen times. Meanwhile, Reynolds essentially split the remaining backfield touches with Zonovan Knight with Bam Knight. The thing is Knight's now out for the season with a shoulder injury, and Gibbs hasn't been able to play the last couple of weeks with.

00:12:33
Speaker 2: A bad hamstring.

00:12:35
Speaker 1: So if Montgomery miss his time, Reynolds would see an uptick and work. He saw eighteen snaps on Sunday. When the third stringer Divine is Zigbo, he saw six. Now, if Jamiir Gibbs is back, Gibbs would be the one A in that offense. He would see the most work. But if Gibbs isn't back, then we're talking about Craig Reynolds being the lead back in this Detroit backfield. He's definitely worth an ad this week.

00:13:01
Speaker 2: Add Michael Mayer.

00:13:04
Speaker 1: From weeks one through four, Raiders tight ends had a target share of five point three percent. That was by far the lowest in the NFL. Over the last two weeks, that number has been twenty one point seven percent, and Michael Mayer, the rookie from Notre Dame, he is the one who's benefited most from that change. He's seen target shares of ten point three percent and nineteen point four percent over his last two He had a tight end one performances past week, catching five balls for seventy five yards. I know a lot of us are struggling at tight end, So Michael Mayer's worth an.

00:13:37
Speaker 2: Ad by Pokin Nakua.

00:13:42
Speaker 1: Look, I'll be honest, I don't know how every Pokin Nakua manager is feeling after.

00:13:46
Speaker 2: His Week six dud.

00:13:48
Speaker 1: Anyone who has Nakua probably loves Pukin Nakua. It's almost impossible not to. This transaction is to essentially say that Pooka Nakua and his peripherals this past week were absolutely fine. Yeah he scored six point six PPR points. Yeah it wasn't a great game, and yeah it was a game when Cooper Cup was back, he was active. You can make that correlation all you want. You can say that Cooper Cup was back and Pokin Akua didn't perform very well, but guess what, Nikua had a thirty three point three percent target share. That was his third best target share of the entire season, and that was with Cooper Cup. It's just that the Rams didn't throw the ball that much and Nakua ended up with just seven targets as a result. But the fact that I'm saying just seven targets, that tells you all you need to know. Pookin Nakua is just fine. He's gonna perform better moving forward. Add Dalton Schultz. So, like Michael Mayer, another tight end who seeing an increase in work over the last couple of weeks is Dalton Schultz. From weeks one through four, Schultz's target share per game rate was just eleven point eight percent. His last two games have seen him with target shares of thirty one point three percent and twenty nine point two percent. Regardless of how good Dalton Schultz is, that absolutely needs to be rostered. And he's still out there in about half of Yahoo leagues, so he deserves a shout this week.

00:15:20
Speaker 2: By Bijon Robinson.

00:15:22
Speaker 1: So I can't imagine that a lot of Bjon Robinson managers are ready to move on after his Week six performance, but his back to back games with a sub fifty percent running back rush there, it might be scaring people off. It's at least a very tilting experience because it is frustrating. As underrated as Tyler Algier has been since entering the NFL, he's not Bijon Robinson. In fact, on the year, Algier trails Robinson expected points added per rush success rate and rushing yards over expected per Kerry. And maybe this is just how things are gonna go. I talked about this a little bit on last week's Mailbag episode. But maybe Robinson's forty six point seven percent running back rush are over the last two weeks.

00:16:04
Speaker 2: That's how it is. That's what we're gonna see.

00:16:07
Speaker 1: The thing is, even if that's the case, even if things remain the exact same, he's still not a bad fantasy asset. He's now scored ten plus PPR points in every game this year. That's because he has a sixteen point three percent target share.

00:16:21
Speaker 2: And look, even though we're a couple.

00:16:22
Speaker 1: Months away, Atlanta's running back schedule in the Fantasy playoffs is amazing. They get the Panthers, Colts, and Bears during weeks fifteen through seventeen. Those are all top ten matchups for running backs.

00:16:35
Speaker 2: So again, even if.

00:16:36
Speaker 1: Robinson's backfield chair remains the exact same, he can still be productive. We've already seen him be productive, but they're still upside with his volume, and in the Fantasy football playoffs when things matter most, his efficiency could go through the roof too. So if anyone in your league is open to trading away Bijon Robinson, you should jump on it. Ad zachf Kyrien Williams is a minor ankle injury and that could sideline him Week seven against Pittsburgh. And then meanwhile, backup Ronnie Rivers has a PCL sprand that's going to keep him off the field for four to five weeks. That leaves the Rams backfield to rookie Zach Evans. Now Evans was a back who had a pretty big following this offseason during draft season. I know a lot of you guys aren't listening during that time, but a lot of smart people like Zach Evans as a prospect. My prospect model didn't totally love him because he had a best season reception share of just five percent, but that model's not right all the time, and he had a hard time staying healthy in college, and he also played with some really good running backs that can lower a player's production. Considering how the Rams have given Kyron Williams such a great workload this season, there's always a chance that they do the same with Zach Evans. If Williams misses this week, or if he misses even longer, and what if Zack Evans shows up, what if he has a great game, Then all of a sudden, we're talking about this rookie running back who hasn't had an opportunity this year. We're talking about him potentially digging into Kyraenn Williams workload moving forward. Now, do I think that that's the probable outcome? Absolutely not. Do I think it's possible? Sure, And off the waiver wire, we're adding what's possible. Add the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. We finally have pretty good streaming defenses here in Week seven. You could look at the Rams against the Steelers, the Commanders against the Giants, the Raiders against the Bears if they're still available, or even the Seahawks against the Cardinals. But I'm going to talk about the Buccaneers here because they're available in a lot of Leagues right now. They get Atlanta in Week seven. The Falcons are a top ten team for fantasy defenses and adjusted fantasy points allowed. They've given up four more sacks in four of six games this year, and this game, a cording to Fandles sportsbook has a' ub forty point over under with The bucks's two and a half point home, favorites so The buccaneers make plenty of sense this week as a streaming. Defense that's it for today's, show, though thanks to all of you for. Listening if you yet subscribe to The Late Round Fantasy football, podcast make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be, found and to follow me On twitter At Late ROUND. Qb thanks for listening, EVERYONE i got the Ten trends episode for you. Tomorrow i'll talk to you then