460: Week 14 Matchups

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha j J Zacherson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyes and the editor in chief at fandel and at number fire dot com And this episode four hundred and sixty of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. Last week was pretty strong. I liked Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers. They came through with decent performances as streamers. I think the process, at least for frankre was fine given ty Johnson's performance, Todd Gurley didn't do anything, Corey Davis blew up, and my guy, Cole Kamet came through as a tight end streamer. I did miss Tyler Boyd because he had that big touchdown and I talked up Michael Pittman when I should have been on t Y Hilton. But at least I'm happy with the process there. So overall, a good week. Let's keep things rolling for the Fantasy football playoffs. I know how important this week is before digging into players I'm higher and lower on versus the consensus. This week, though, we've got another fan duel podcast Network Listener League and you should join it. Enter the Rake Free weekly NFL contest made exclusively for you the Listener for just five dollars, and compete for your share for the fifteen hundred dollars prize pool, including a one hundred and fifty dollars first place prize. To enter, visit fandle dot com Slash League Slash Listener League. Eligibility restrictions apply. Let's kick off this week's quarterback section with Matthew Stafford. A lot of you are probably on the fence with starting or sitting Stafford this week, but I think he's a good play. I mentioned on the fifteen Transactions episode this week that this past week Stafford was throwing it deep at the highest rate that he's thrown it deep on the season. It was like twenty nineteen Stafford, and I don't think it's a coincidence that that all happened the same week as offensive coordinator got promoted to interim head coach. Now the Lions get the Packers in the game with a fifty five and a half point over under. Green Bay's been good and adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but they've been below average in net yards per day tempt allowed and pressure rate allowed. That makes me feel good about Stafford's ability to sit in the pocket and do what this Daryl Bevill offense wants to do, which has open things up with down the field throwing. I think he's a good low end QB one option this week. I talk about Philip Rivers basically every single week. At this point, he's just consistently undervalued. I mentioned him on the fifteen Transactions episode as well, but he's really only given you one bad game since the beginning of October, and that came against Baltimore. This week, he gets the Raiders in the game that has an over under of fifty one and a half according to Fandals Sportsbook and Vegas Ranks, is an attractive matchup when looking at adjusted points a lot of quarterbacks, so I think it's a very safe option as a streamer. Let's take a little bit deeper, though, Teddy Bridgewater gets the Broncos this week. At the time of this recording, I don't have confirmed updates on the COVID status of Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore, so if they don't go, it's a little bit tough to trust Teddy. But if they do suit up. I don't mind him as a waiver wire quarterback. The Broncos secondary is banged up, but now aj Boye is suspended, so they're taking a hit, and Carolina utilizes their wide receivers a lot. On the season, They've targeted wide outs on about sixty eight percent of their targeted throws. That's one of the highest marks in the league. The Panthers have a solid twenty five point imply team total this week as well, so if one of Samuel or Moore's back, I'll feel decent about Bridgewater as a good streamer. I'd still go Rivers over him, though, because there's a lot less variance, and since I don't really have someone that you should absolutely bench, maybe aside from Jared Goffo, I don't really like this week. I'm gonna give you a super deep play and go with Mike Glennon. And Glennon's two starts, he's definitely gotten enough volume and he's gone for an average of about two hundred and fifty eight passing yards per game, and what I like to see is that he's chucking it deep. He had a deep ball rate of twenty five point seven percent in week twelve, and that was twenty six point two percent in Week thirteen. Those are both really high numbers, and NA could come in handy against the Titans this week because Tennessee's second Canary has given up a top ten number of deep ball plays this year. They've also allowed the third most adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks. I kind of hate talking about running backs on the show each week because it's just not a deep position. It's so hard to find deeper plays that are truly viable, and we usually get those deeper plays later in the week when players are rolled out. But I'll do my best to go a little deep. Let's start with Jamal Williams. Detroit is very beatable on the ground. In fact, not a single team has allowed more opponent adjusted Fantasy points to running backs than the Detroit Lions this year. That's why everyone was on David Montgomery last week. So it's not hard to envision a scenario where on Jamal Williams's limited touches he ends up having a really efficient game. He did see a slight dip in rush air this past week, but since Aaron Jones returned, his running back rush air has hovered the thirty six thirty seven percent mark. That means he can get maybe eight to ten touches in this game and against this defense, that can make him flexworthy a similar situation with Chase Edmonds. Would I feel confident starting Edmonds in my playoff matchup? Probably not. But talking about starting a player like Austin Eckler doesn't help you, guys. You're not gonna learn about process if I say, hey, guys, I like Austin Eckler this week. Edmunds has seen about a twenty seven percent running back rush share since Kenyan Drake came back from his injury, but his target share is kept up. He's seen a twelve point six percent target share per game over his last four and that's equated to four and a half targets per game. Now, he's facing a Giants team this week that's been pretty bad against pass catching running backs. Only the Jets have allowed more running back receptions this year, and only the Packers have seen a higher percentage of their receiving yards allowed go to that position. So I think Edmunds works as sort of a punt play in PPR leagues. Let's look at the flip side, though, I think there are two players that some of you are probably curious about this week, one being Jonathan Taylor and the other being Miles Sanders. Let's start with Taylor. I think he's just ranked a little bit too high this week. Not that I don't like a spot. I really like his spot, but as I said on yesterday's ten Trend Show, his usage really isn't that amazing right now. He saw an eight point six percent target chair and just fifty four percent of Indianapolis's running back carries this past week. I do think he should be in your lineup, but he's being ranked as a fringe RB one this week. I get that the position is weak, and I understand why he's ranked there, but I do think that there's a lot more risk than what that type of ranking is telling you. And then with Miles Sanders, I think if you have a decent alternative, maybe not as low as someone like Jamal Williams, maybe someone like Niim Hines, I think that you can bench Sanders. I would probably play Hines over Miles Sanders. That's where we're at. Sanders' workload took a hit this past week with Jordan Howard being activated from the practice squad and new Orleans is a really tough matchup. Not just really tough, they're the toughest. They're the best team when looking at adjusted points allowed to running backs this year, and they've allowed zero top twelve performances this season to opposing running backs since Deandre's Wwhipt's RB seventeen performance against him back in Week four, no running back is even ranked in the top twenty against the Saints. That's why it's just so hard to trust Miles Sanders. Let's talk some wide receivers. The first is Cole Beasley. He's coming off a big Week thirteen game and he's now been a top three weekly wide out in two of his last three contests. Now, this game against Pittsburgh may seem a little bit scary on paper, but Pittsburgh's not as tough of a matchup as you might think. So the thirteenth best matchup and adjusted points allowed, which by the way, they're nineteenth when you don't adjust, So this just shows that they faced a relatively easy schedule and they're not good against the slot. No team has seen a higher percentage of their targets go to that area of the field according to Pro Football Focused data, and according to PFF. Beasley has played almost ninety percent of his snaps from the slot this year, so you can start him pretty confidently. And I like Jarvis Landry this week for similar reasons. Since Obj's injury, Landry is averaging a target chair per game above twenty nine percent. And while Baltimore does rank as a top ten matchup to avoid for wide receivers, they've seen the fourth highest target rate to the slot this year. The Ravens have actually allowed the most slot receptions in the league, and Jarvis Landry since that OBJ injury, has played about half of his snaps from the slot, So I'm into Jarvis Landry in PPR formats. I like Mike Williams a lot more than usual this week as well. He's had a down last two weeks, but at least last week he saw a seventeen percent target chair. Now he gets a Falcons secondary that's been the second friendliest to wide receivers this year when looking at justin fantasy points allowed, and the Falcons have allowed the most deep ball passes to be completed this season. Meanwhile, Mike Williams among relevant pass catchers, has the third highest average depth of target in football, so a big play could happen in this one. Darnell Mooney gets to face the Bradley Roby lists Houston Secondary this week, and I'm excited about it. Mooney has seen at least eighteen percent of Chicago's targets in three of his last four games, and he's got twenty eight targets this year on deep ball passes. To give you some context, that's the tenth highest number in all of football. Only nine wide receivers have more deep ball targets than Darnell Mooney. This Houston defense should be beatable. That's why I liked Philip Rivers last week, and I like Mooney's chances to make a big play given his usage all season long. Now on the flip side, I know Jacobe Myers has the target cheers to back up a potential start, But after Cam Newton's failed to throw for one hundred yards in each of his last two games, I don't know how you can go to Myers. Not only that, but the Rams have been by far the best team against wide receivers this year. It's not even that close. Team Wide receivers have scored seven point six fewer points against the Rams versus their season long average the next closest team in Chicago at minus four point seventy five. So don't start Jacobe Myers. Let's go back to Cole Komette as a streamer. He's now run more routes than Jimmy Graham in three straight games, and those peripherals finally hit in week thirteen when he saw two twenty one percent target share. Now he gets a decent enough matchup against Houston. Now I do worry that Chicago's going to take advantage of some cornerback matchups, but Kamen is still ranked way too low given Chicago's using him a lot more. Now, a more traditional streamer, a higher floor streamer, and a better streamer that I like this week is Jordan Reed, who has a revenge game. Reed is now average a target share a little over fourteen percent over his last three games. That's good, not great, But he gets a Washington defense it's actually been beat by tight ends this year. They rank eleventh and adjusted Fantasy points allowed twenty two and a half percent of the receiving yards that they've allowed have gone to the tight end position. That's well above average. So you can absolutely use Jordan Reed as a streamer this week. Now on defense here in Week fourteen, I'm just going to reiterate what I said on the fifteen Transaction Show. I really like Carolina against Denver since Denver's the second most advantageous matchup for defenses this year and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. Carolina is still a three and a half point favorite, and there's a relatively low forty six and a half point over under in this game, So I then you can go in that direction as the best waiver wire option. Now, I may have called Arizona a safer option on that show, but I don't know if that's really the case. What I do know is that the Cardinals get a Giants team that's been a top ten matchup and adjusted points allowed, and I think that, honestly, the Cardinals might be a more attractive option if Daniel Jones starts, because we know his turnover tendencies and we know that the Giants might want to drop back and pass more if they have Daniel Jones versus Colt McCoy. So to me, the Cardinals are ranked just a little bit too low this week, but I do think that Carolina is the better play that's going to do it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you've get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. One more show this week, the Mailbag Show, and that will drop tomorrow. Talk to you then,