601: Week 16 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharieson, the editor in chief at Fandle and at number fire dot com. And this is episode six hundred and one of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the Fandel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. As always, let's kick things off today with a look at what happened last week. DeVante Parker and Deontay Foreman were both top fifteen options at their positions as past week. That was a big win in that tier of players rostered in fifty to seventy percent of leagues. Jimmy Garoppolo Tua and Justin Fields. None of them lit it up as streamers, but because this week was so low scoring, the three of them finished between QB ten and QB fourteen. I'll take that from streaming quarterbacks. Gabriel Davis was a big hit, and I was right to quickly call out Marquez Valdez scantling while being wrong about Alan Lazard. And there are just some players who were fine. They didn't do a whole lot, but Donovan Peoples, Jones and Jamison Crowder were top forty options at wide receiver, and James O'Shaughnessy was the tight end twelve. But as always, there were misses. Cole Beasley wasn't very good, kJ Osborne didn't do much, and Jordan Howard didn't get the type of role that he possibly could have had. But overall, given the win at week fifteen went, I'm not upset about the results now. As for Week sixteen, I record this show on Wednesday so that I can get it out to you on Thursday morning. With waivers running later this week, the percent roster numbers aren't totally accurate. Like Ronald Jones is rostered in thirty seven percent of Yahoo leagues at the time of this recording. That number is probably gonna be over eighty percent after waivers run. So I'll do my best to just be realistic with tears this week. I'll try not to just pick obvious players before get into sleepers. Though, I wanted to send another reminder about the FanDuel NFL High Low, a free to play fantasy football contest. All you have to do is build your scorecard with the teams that you think will score highest or lowes to four stat categories. The closer yard to being spot on, the more points you'll get. Players with the most points each week split the prize pool, and a perfect scorecard will win the jackpot. Head over to fandle dot com today and play the FanDuel High Low for free. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the fandal Lap for more details. Let's kick things off. Of the players rostered in fifty to seventy percent of Yahoo leagues you could consider starting, and let's talk about Devonte Parker. He's now averaged a twenty one percent target share per game this season within an offense that's surprisingly ranked tenth in neutral script pass rate. With Tuatungue Voloa. This year, that target share per game is closer to twenty five percent. Jalen Wattles should be good to go this week, and I definitely prefer Wattles matchup to Devonte Parker's, but Parker has been a solid enough contributor this season. He's ranked as a top thirty wide receiver in each of his last four games played, and he's top sixty yards and each game played with two of this year, so I don't mind DeVante Parker this week, Russell Gage just keeps getting it done. Technically, the matchup against Detroit this week is not an amazing one. Detroit actually rings twenty second and adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this year, but part of that is definitely game script related. Teams don't have to throw against Detroit very often, which is why they rank towards the bottom of the league and raw wide receiver targets allowed and pass rate allowed. As long as Jared Goff is able to go, which is a question because he's on the COVID list, we could see a closer game between Atlanta and Detroit. Regardless. I don't really fear the matchup. That's really what I'm trying to say here. And Gage is seeing amazing peripherals. He's not just been a top fifteen wide receiver in three of his last four games, but he's averaging a twenty five and a half percent target share per game over his last seven, so you can feel pretty good about him this week. Deontay Foreman is still rostered in too few of leagues. Maybe his number jumps this week after waivers, and I'd assume that it will, but Foreman has rushed for over one hundred yards and two of his last three games while averaging eighteen carries per game during this stretch, and that's within a run heavy Titans offense. In Week fifteen, he even saw a season high nine point four percent target share. They'll get San Francisco on Thursday night, a team that's been pretty average against backs this year, so he can find your lineup once again as a lower end RB two. Justin Field is someone I keep bringing up in the streaming conversation, and it's for the reasons that I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show. He's been a QB one in each of his last four completed games, and he's running the ball more. He's averaging eight and a half attempts in over sixty four rushing yards per game during this four game stretch. That's an additional six point four fantasy points for him, or the equivalent of a passing touchdown and a half plus some and that doesn't even account for a potential rushing touchdown. Now, the matchup this week is not as good as it was last week, but Seattle isn't the defense that you should be worried about. They're not like a top five defense against quarterbacks or anything. Field should be fine as a streamer, and I would be comfortable playing him over someone like Russell Wilson at this point, and right now, Wilson is ranked ahead of Fields by consensus. Jimmy Garoppolo is another one that I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, and I'm good with him as a streamer this week as well. He's averaging over seventeen points per game since Week eight, which just so happens to closely coincide with when George Kittle returned from injury. Now he gets a Titans defense that ranks sixth worst against quarterbacks and justin fantasy points allowed. Jimmy g is fine on Thursday night. I'd prefer justin fields, but Garoppolo should give you a floor also in this tier. Amanas Saint Brown, I would assume that his percent roster number is going to shoot up, but he's seen twelve to twelve and eleven targets over his last three games. He's been a top ten wide receiver in two of those games, and he's facing a Falcon secondary that's been terrible this year. Atlanta rings second worst against quarterbacks and the justin fantasy points allowed fifth worst against running backs and third worst against wide receivers. I think you could argue that Saint Brown makes sense as a wide receiver three type even if GoF doesn't go. But if GoF does go, he's more like a wide receiver two at least in PPR formats. One surprise from week fifteen was Latavious Murray's workload. He had gone five straight weeks with a running back rush share under forty percent, and against Green Bay that rose to fifty three point eight percent. He also saw his highest target share of the season against the Packers. If that continues to some degree in Week sixteen, he could be usable. The Ravens get Cincinnati, a team that ranks tenth and adjusted points allowed to running backs this year, so it's not some tough matchup. You know, at the very least, Murray getting work makes Devonte Freeman a riskier play. Gabriel Davis probably belongs in the previous tier, but he's still in the ten to twenty five percent rostered range that's at the time in this recording. Regardless, he's probably not going to reach a status where he shouldn't be mentioned on this show, so let's talk about him. As I alluded to on the fifteen Transaction Show, Davis has scored four touchdowns over his last three games, and that's aligned with a higher target share and more looks in the red zone. He leads the NFL in red zone targets over the last three weeks, and he's averaged a target share per game over this time of seventeen percent. Even in a tough matchup against New England, I think you've got to ride Davis, and now that Cole Beasley is out with COVID, you can feel confident that Davis is going to have a full time role in this offense. Samaj p Ryan could have a role against Baltimore. We'll see how Joe Mixon's injury looks as the week progresses, and it does look fairly optimistic on Wednesday as I'm recording this. But you could argue regardless that p Ran isn't a terrible desperation flex play because if gamescript goes south, pe Ryan will probably be on the field a good bit as a team's pass catcher, and that's only re emphasized by Mixon's ankle injury. Even with a healthy mix in over the last five games, p Ran has averaged a nine percent target share per game. Now, Baltimore is a bottom three matchup for pass catching running backs when you look at adjusted target share aloud. And that makes sense because teams can target tight ends and wide receivers against the Ravens successfully. But just watch the reports about mixing, because if he plays, he may not be one hundred percent ready to go for that same Bengals offense cj Uzama. The Ravens ranked fifth and adjusted target share allowed to tight ends this year, and that's translated to them ranking six than adjusted points allowed with the issues they've had in the secondary. I do think that you run the risk that the matchup isn't as good as it appears in spreadsheets. But Uzama has averaged a fourteen percent target share per game for Cincinnati over their last seven and don't forget that against Baltimore in Week seven, he caught all three of his targets for ninety one yards and two touchdowns. I think he's more of a desperation streamer with upside, but that's sort of where we're at with the tight end position. Someone like James O'Shaughnessy, who I talked about on the fifteen Transaction show, he's a safer bet, but I don't think Uzama is some horrific tight end streamer. But I will say my top tight end streamer this week is probably Cole Komet. He's seen a nineteen percent target share this season and he has three top ten performances over his last six games. Over his last four, his target share per game has been an impressive twenty two percent. Justin Field opens things up a little bit more for the Chicago offense, and Kament is going to face a top three match up for tight ends and adjusted Fantasy points allowed, so he makes a lot of sense this week. I've got more players than usual this week in the under ten percent bucket, or players roster in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues, So let's get to them. The first is Alan Lazard. I'm going back to Lazard. Marquez Valdez Scantling is on the COVID list, and maybe by the time you're hearing this, Lazard is going to be hit by it too, But right now he's not on it, and that means Alan Lazard is going to be the number two wide receiver for Green Bay. Last week, he failed to hit an eighty percent snapshare, but if MVS is out, that number likely increases. And if MVS is out, we should probably project Lazard to see seventeen or eighteen percent of Green Bay's targets, if not more, in an Aaron Rodgers led offense. I'll take that all day long. And for what it's worth, Lazard has hit a twenty percent target share twice this season. In those games, he scored twelve and twenty one PPR points. Antoine Leslie ranks second in routes run for Arizona against Detroit this past week. Like the rest of the Cardinals offense, he didn't do that much, but without DeAndre Hopkins, a sixteen point seven percent target chair is not bad. It sounds like Rondale Moore hurt his ankle in that game too, so if he can't go, that raises the snap floor for Wesley. Arizona geinst Indianapolis, So the matchup isn't special, but Wesley is at least in an offense that can generate points and he could see more work than usual in that offense, so he's someone to watch. Now we go from Antoine Wesley to LaQuan Treadwell. Seriously, Treadwell ran the most routes for the Jags this past week, and he's second on the team in routes run over their last five and he's averaged a twenty percent target chair over his last four, with a twenty five percent target share this past week. The Jags get the Jets in Week sixteen, Like I said on yesterday's show, maybe they'll be able to move the ball a little bit better. Maybe just maybe Trevor Lawrence actually throws a touchdown pass. Treadwell's usage in the matchup make him a He's in enough deep sleeper. I mean, I'm choosing from pretty bad players here, you guys, give me a break. I originally was going to talk about Justin Jackson in this final tier because he's still rostered in very few leagues, and I was ready to say how the Chargers are big favorites over the Texans, and with a banged up Austin Eckler, maybe Justin Jackson ends up seeing more work than usual. And then Eckler was placed in the COVID list. So here we are. Like I talked about on the fifteen Transaction show, Justin Jackson is the guy who I think would get the most work in that backfield without Austin Eckler. He saw forty percent of the team's running back rushes this past week. And then next in line is kind of interesting. Joshua Kelly played last week with Larry Rowntree as a healthy scratch, but Kelly had a bad goal line fumble and he's just not been that effective. So I wouldn't be surprised if we see more Larry Rountree this week, even though he was in active last week. There's a chance one of those two backups to Jackson would have a good game given the fact that the Chargers could be playing with a lead against a very beatable defense. If you want to take a shot on round Tree or Kelly, it's a complete dart throw move to me. If Justin Jackson's available, he's your man. He's the safest bet, and he's a pretty good bet to make if Austin Eckler doesn't play. And then finally, you could look at DJ Dallas as well. In very very tilting fashion, he scored a goal line touchdown on Tuesday Night's game against the Rams, but he looked pretty good in that contest. When it was all said and done, Dallas had a forty one percent running back rush air in a fourteen percent target share in week fifteen. Now, I understand it's really risky to trust those kind of peripherals this week, but again, if you're needing to dig super deep for a running back, Dallas does make at least some sense. Now, as for the streamers this week, I mentioned Seattle has won to target against Chicago on yesterday's fifteen Transaction show, but don't sleep on Cincinnati either. There are better defenses to play this week, for sure, but Baltimore has been a top ten opponent for opposing defenses this year. The Bengals are at home and they're two and a half point favorites. The over under that game isn't very high either, at forty four and a half. I like Seattle more, but Cincinnati does still work. If you're in a pinch, that's gonna do it. For today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by switching forward pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. This is the last episode of the week because of the holiday, so I hope everyone has a great and safe holiday weekend. I will talk to you next week.