606: Prepping for Fantasy Football Playoff Contests

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher Resa, Jay, Jake zacher Resa, what's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyeson, the editor in chief at Fandle and at Number five dot com in this episode six hundred and six of the Late Round Podcast. So many shows that are part of the fandel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. It's the off season, and for those of you who haven't been around for a Late Round podcast, off season things are a little bit different. You get two episodes each week, or at least most weeks. I do take some time off here and there during the off season to recharge, but early in the week, usually on Monday or Tuesday, I'll release a show on some random topic. Those shows can be deep dives into specific fantasy football topics. Sometimes there are shows that go over my prospect rankings, and sometimes I'll bring on a guest to talk about something cool they did in the fantasy football space. After that show publishes, I start working on the weekly mailbag, which will go out each Friday. So the same as the regular season, the shows during the off season are sort of the foundation for the regular season. I reference old shows on the podcast all the time. This is where we all can refine our process to be better fantasy football managers. Now, with all that being said, today's show isn't really the norm. I mean, I do this show each year, but it's unlikely to really help you out as a fantasy manager, at least in the traditional sense. I do this episode each year, and people seem to like it and get something out of it, so figured I'd run it back once again each year. The fantasy football season ends and everyone's sad because it's over. Some of us are relieved, but it's sad that we're not playing fantasy football anymore. But over the last handful of years, playoff fantasy football has become more and more popular. But unfortunately, unlike season long, there's not one specific format that the majority of people play now. If you haven't played playoff fantasy before, there are usually a couple of different formats that people go with. One is a one and done type format where each week you create your typical fantasy football roster, but stead of having the same team each week, you pick players and you can't use those players again. So let's say that you want to use Patrick Mahomes this week against the Steelers. Well, if Mahomes goes off, that's great, but know that you can't use them again for the rest of the playoffs. That introduces a new layer of game theory that we don't really have in regular season long fantasy football and season long. We don't really care how good a team is. I mean, we do to some degree, but we don't really care about the result of games. Whether the Chiefs win or lose doesn't really matter. In this type of format, it does because if you keep picking players on winning teams, eventually you're going to run out of players. There are also a lot of formats that consist of you drafting a team at the start of the playoffs and then you keeping that team throughout the playoffs, and that also has that added element of caring about whether a team is good or not. If you're drafting a team that started the playoffs and you decide to use all of your early round picks on Raiders and Steelers, then you better hope the Raiders and Steelers make it far into the playoffs, or else you won't have anyone to play. So on today's show, my goal is not to just make a lineup for you. It's not just to draft a team for you. It's to explain my strategy and playoff formats this year based on what numbers say might happen in the NFL playoffs. At the end of this episode, the hope is that you feel more confident in the different ways the playoffs can unfold, because that can make all the difference with these formats. Now before digging in. You may not know, but the World Fantasy Basketball Championship is scheduled to take place on March thirteenth, and that means there's still plenty of time for you to qualify for the live Final. To get in on the action, enter your best nine man NBA lineup into a WFBBC qualifier and finish in first place. Each finalist VIP package includes a trip for two to New Orleans, two luxury box game tickets to the Hornets Pelicans game on March eleventh, VIP entry to a special fan event, and so much more. The Live Final will be here before you know it, so head tofandel dot com slash WFBBC today and compete for your chance to party by the Bayou. Eligibility destrictions apply to fan or download the Fandle app for more details. Okay, so naturally, in order to really nail your lineups in these formats, you need to know which teams are good and which teams aren't good. You need to know which teams have a real shot at making some sort of run in the playoffs. And you could look at simple win loss records, but that's not always telling. Some teams had some luck on their side to have the win loss record that they have. Some didn't like If a team went thirteen and four but won all thirteen of those games by a field goal, it wouldn't really make sense to put them in the same tier as a team who went twelve and five and won all twelve games by double digit points. There's regression that happens in those one score games. That's where number fires metrics can be really, really helpful. If you listen to this show last year, you might remember me talking about number fires nerd metric. It measures the number of points we'd expect a team to win by against an average team on a neutral field. A team with a NERD of three would be expected to win by a field goal. A team with a NERD of minus five would be expected to lose by five, and if those two teams face each other on a neutral field. Quick math tells us that we'd expect the team with a NERD of three to beat the team with a NERD of minus five by eight points. When it comes to sports betting, there's more than just this simple calculation. But NERD can help us determine which teams are actually good, not just teams that seem to be good. And if any of you remember the show from last year, do you know who the number one team in football was? According to NERD entering the playoffs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers despite being the five seed. Number Fires NERD metric entering the playoffs had the Bucks as the best team in football. This year, the Bucks ranked second in NERD entering the playoffs. The team in first is actually the Buffalo Bills. They've got a NERD of eleven point four that's more than a point better than the second ranked Bucks. And if you're curious where number fires Metrics have Green Bay and Tennessee this year's two to one seeds. Green Bay has a NERD of six point three, which is tied with the Rams for seventh, and the Titans have a NERD of two point three to seven, which is worse than the Saints and the Colts, who didn't even make the playoffs. Now, remember this isn't the end. All these teams get home field advantage. They're not playing on a neutral field, and Tennessee in particular could get a key piece back when they play in a couple of weeks in Derrick Henry. But this does tell us at a quick glance that we could be in store for a more unpredictable playoff. Now, the way that I sort of approached these formats is that I look at the teams that are likely to be eliminated early first. You can do that in a couple of ways. One easy way is to check Fandel's sportsbook and just look at this week spreads. Of course, an underdog isn't a lock to lose, but it at least gives us an idea of what could happen this week and in future weeks if a team holes an upset, and you can combine that with number Fire's Nerd metric. So Pittsburgh's a perfect example. According to Fandels sportsbook, the Steelers are twelve and a half point underdogs against Kansas City this week, and according to Number fires Nerd metric. Pittsburgh is the second worst team in the playoffs, with a NERD of minus one point five to three. That means they were a below average team this year despite their record, and that makes sense. The Steelers had a point differential of minus fifty five this year. All but one of their wins was by eight or fewer points. They won a lot of close games, and even though that could continue hypothetically, we can't count on that continuing. So use that to your advantage in these drafts. If you're in a one and done format, it's probably not a bad idea to use Deontay Johnson this weekend in a game where Pittsburgh could be throwing a lot to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes. Even Najie Harris could work. According to Number Fire is NERD metric. The difference in NERD in this game, or the difference in the Steelers NERD versus the Chief's nerd. It's actually not the largest of the weekend that goes to the Eagles versus the Bucks. Now I know, I know the Bucks are sort of trending in one direction, the Eagles are trending in another, and a metric like NERD is capturing the entire season, not just recent weeks, although recent weeks still do matter. With that being said, that's also sort of the point. You can't let recency bias overshadow and entire season where we have more data to work with. Fandel Sportsbook sees the Bucks as a pretty big eight and a half point favorite this weekend. So the Eagles are another team that you could use a lot here in round one in a one and done format, and it's a team that's tough to buy into making a huge run, especially when you consider the level of competition that they beat this year. And I'm not taking anything away from Philly. You guys know that I love me some Jalen Hurts. I'm just saying that there's a reason they have a NERD of point nine to five and they're facing a team with the second highest NERD in football. Those are the two games that numbers seem to highlight most as being lopsided this weekend. The state of Pennsylvania may have a depressing wild card weekend. So let's make the assumption that the Bucks and Chiefs get their wins this weekend. You can never assume that in football, but you have to do that in order to see the paths for these teams. The NFL Playoffs reseed in the second round. That means there's a zero percent chance that the Chiefs would face New England in round two, which you could argue is the worst matchup for an AFC team for fantasy football purposes, because they're methodical and they play good defense. If New England upsets Buffalo, they're gonna go to Tennessee. But if Buffalo and Kansas City both win, we'll see them in the divisional round, and with those two offenses, it could be fireworks. I'm more inclined as a result, to go with the Chiefs running back this week, which we have to monitor with Daryl Williams toe injury. But it's the right matchup and the Chiefs are big favorites, so it makes sense to save some of that passing attack in a one and done format, even though they could have a good week this week. Now stemming from that, we can start to put some of these pieces together. The Bills get the Patriots this week, and actually the Patriots are a top five team by NERD. The Bills have the top team in football courording the metric, but the difference between the Bills and the Patriots is still just four points according to NERD. That's the second lowest mark during Wildcard weekend. So there's actually some risk with Buffalo, and because there's risk, you may be more inclined to use them this weekend in one of those one and done formats. But it's not some cakewalk matchup, which is why this game has the lowest over under in the week. I think using a secondary player from Buffalo is fine this week, but I'd rather risk the Bills in this game and not use anyone major in a one and done format and look to Buffalo in a more advantageous matchup later on in the playoffs. And because they have the highest NERD in football, it makes sense to draft Bills in the format where you draft a team and just have that team for the entirety of the playoffs. So we've covered two of the three AFC games. Let's finish it out with the Bengals and the Raiders. The Bengals are a really fun team with offensive firepower, but NERD has them as the tenth best team in the playoffs. Fortunately for them, the Raiders are the absolute worst team in this year's playoff. Cincinnati has a NERD of two point six two. Vegas is at minus two point four to six. Now, Cincinnati wins, chances are they're gonna either face Tennessee or Kansas City, And if we believe in the Bills, the highest chance is that Cincinnati will go to Tennessee, and Tennessee is actually a very winnable game. The Titans, despite being the top seed in the eight, have a slightly worse NERD than Cincinnati does now. Obviously, like I said earlier, the Titans could be getting Derrick Henry back, but the numbers are telling us that whoever wins this game in Cincinnati could end up going on a run. But this game in Cincinnati also has a decent over under. And because Round two is likely to be against Tennessee, a team that ranked in the bottom five and adjusted points a lot of running backs, I'd be cool with going with someone like Joe Mixon in a one and done format here against the Raiders. And if you want to split up Jamar Chase and t Higgins, that's fine too. You could go with Higgins this week and wait for Jamar Chase next week. And I'd be fine using Raiders players as well this week because their odds of making a run are very low in fact, and this goes back to what I've said about Pittsburgh too. But my friend rich Reebar at lord Reeves on Twitter, he said this on Monday on Twitter. Quote playoff rematches between non division opponents in which a team lost by seventeen or more points in the regular season since two thousand and eight, the losing team went three to fifteen in the postseason rematch with thirteen straight losses. So this relates to the Steelers and the Raiders. The Steelers lost to the Chiefs by twenty six in Week sixteen, the Raiders lost the Bengals by nineteen and week eleven, So just more evidence that the odds are likely that the Steelers and the Raiders are going to lose this weekend. So to recap the AFC, it seems obvious, but Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Buffalo are teams who've seen poised to make a run, and they are teams that you may not want to use a ton of in the wildcard round in a one and done type format. But let's flip to the NFC, where I think things are less straightforward. I already mentioned the Bucks and the Eagles, and I think that if you want to use Jalen Hurts this week in a one and done format, that makes a ton of sense, or even like a Dallas Goddard. But there are two other games, one being Dallas in San Francisco, the other one Arizona in La. Arizona in La projects to be the closest this week by Nerd and Fandel sportsbook has the Rams is four point favorites, but Fandel sports because the Cowboys and forty nine Ers is a three point game, likely because of how the forty nine ers are playing late. Let's just assume we see the Buccaneers advance. That would put the Bucks and Packers into the next round. I don't think the high level matchups then in the wildcard round would necessarily be any better or worse for the other four teams that are playing, Which means that the way you may want to approach the two close games in the NFC, at least from a one and done format standpoint, is to look at the size of your contest. If you need to be contrarian because there are hundreds of people that you're competing against, then you could risk it and play some like Cooper Cup in a later round. If you're in a shallower league, you can play Cup immediately to at least banks some points from him. Because it's not a guaranteed that the Rams are gonna win. Even though Arizona has been playing poorly, NERD says that the Cardinals are actually the better team. It doesn't mean number Fire's algorithm is projecting Arizona to win. It just means that Arizona's NERD is better, that they've performed better across the season. If you're drafting a team stack to advance far into the playoffs, of these two games, Dallas seems to make the most sense. The third best team in football by NERD, and they've got over a five point advantage in NERD over the forty nine ers. But in a larger pool tournament, I'm at least intrigued by Arizona because so many people are gonna be off of them, and it's all because of their recent play. But you've got to do your best to look beyond that in situations like this. The numbers do show the Cardinals being a decent team. They're the fourth best team in the playoffs by NERD, so they're probably one of the best contrarian teams to stack up in a non one and done format, So let's recap the NFC similar to how we recap the AFC. The Eagles are likeliest to lose this weekend, which means in a one and done format, you should use up Jalen Hurts given what we know that he can do in fantasy football. Of the remaining non Tampa Bay teams, the Cowboys seem most likely to go on a run, and they'd likely get Tampa Bay in round two, which could be a great fantasy football situation. And then Arizona's the contrarian team to stack According to number five is Metrics, the Cardinals have the ninth best Super Bowl odds entering the playoffs, but they're not really that much different from la who's in seventh and is bound to be more popular. You guys can check out all of those odds and all of the nerd ratings by going to number fire dot com, hovering over NFL, and then going to team power rankings. There are just so many format iterations of these playoff contests that it's impossible for me to really give you direct guidance, but I at least wanted to get this episode out there to show you guys how I generally think about playoff fantasy football, and I've had success with it, so hopefully you will too. Asking to do it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You know, for it's following me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I will be back on Friday with the Mailbag episode. I'll talk to you then