1029: Week 5 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Reasons. J J.

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Speaker 2: Zacher reson what's up everyone?

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten twenty nine of the Late Round Fantasy football podcast sponsored by DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 1: There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code Late Round to play free for your share of millions. The Crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hunter Gambler New York call eight seven seven eight Hope n Why in Connecticut called eighty eight seven eight nine seven seven seventy seven eighteen plus most states. Eligibillionastians apply Ends December thirty, first CE terms at DraftKings dot com slash Promotions. Last week's episode had a lot of big hits and how had a lot of big misses. There wasn't much in between. At quarterback Justin Fields went off, Matthew Stafford went off, and even Carson Wentz scored over twenty one standard points, but Gino Smith was a big l I'll take those results.

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Speaker 2: Though.

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Speaker 1: Most of the running backs were kind of whatever, which is typically the case. Running backs are tough to find off the waiver wire, but Woody marks Man he came through with almost twenty eight pp er points in his breakout performance at wide receiver. Again very hit or miss. I really like keyon Coleman's matchup, but that offense just keeps spreading things around. Trey Tucker was disappointing, and then Cedric Tillman and Darnell Mooney both got hurt. And then there was Adni Mitchell after he fumbled at the goal line. I sent a tweet out and I asked if I still get points for the process of calling out Mitchell as a sleeper, and you guys were very friendly saying it was clearly just an unlucky result on the play. I'm not going to take a W, but I won't take an L for that either. But beside Mitchell, I did talk about Romeo Dobbs and Quentin Johnston last week. They both did really, really well. They had great days, and then at tight end it was mostly the same overall, not a bad week. It was definitely better than Week three. I hope we can keep it going into Week five, but just a warning, this week is pretty brutal. To kick things off, we'll look at players rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues you might want to start this week, and Justin Fields is by far the easiest go to, or at least the most obvious. As we saw Monday night, Fields can save his day with just one big play that wasn't a plus matchup against Miami, and this week he's gotten even better. One quarterbacks against the Cowboys have ranked at the QB eight two one in five this season, Dallas ranks is the best matchup for quarterbacks by justin fantasy points allowed. They're allowing ninety three passing yards to be thrown on them over expected per game. The Jets have a reasonable twenty two and a half point total. Field is in a great spot. I honestly think that you could rank him as high as QB two this week. Daniel Jones another quarterback that you could look to in this tier. The Colts get the Raiders this week and they have an impressive twenty seven point total. It's hard to not be on a quarterback with that high of a team total. Now, the Raiders have actually been a bottom five team for quarterbacks this year through adjusted Fantasy points allowed. They haven't been a good fantasy matchup. With that being said, they've been totally average when it comes to adjusted passing yards allowed, and they're below average and passing touchdown rate allowed, meaning more of the touchdowns they've given up have come via the ground than expected. That kind of thing should regress fields is the better play this week, but Danny Dimes is okay too. Now, I don't have any running backs in this tier for you, but I do have some wideouts, and man, I gotta be honest with you, guys.

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Speaker 2: Wide receiver is absolutely brutal.

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Speaker 1: This week in fantasy football. I'll be playing surprised at just a couple of the picks that I talk about this week do well. It's just a tough spot at the moment. But we'll kick things off with Chris Godwin. He's coming off a ten target game against Philly and those ten targets were on a twenty six percent target share and a ninety one percent route participation rate. Now, the annoying part about Godwin's Week four was that he actually had just a thirty five percent slot rate. His average up to target was over fifteen yards. What we want from Godwin in fantasy football is more slot work and ideally not tons and tons of down the field stuff. Godwin's money in that short and intermediate area. I mean last year when he was dominating in fantasy football before that season ending injury, Godwin had an average depth of target of five point six yards and he ran sixty two percent of his routes out of the slot. There are new circumstances this year, and it's something we have to be aware of. Regardless that kind of target share, that kind of route participation, it's not something that's easy to find. Here in Week five, He's got a tough matt against the Seahawks, but volumes should allow him to be usable. Seattle's technically been below expectation and passing yards allowed this year too. Another white all you can look at in this tier is Trey Tucker. Not that I feel great about it. Tucker only had a ten percent target share last week, but he continues to run a lot of routes. He had a one hundred percent route participation rate. In Week four, Indianapolis has been the sixth best matchup for wide receivers and looking at justin fantasy points allowed, and we know Tucker's capable of some big plays, and the Colts, for what it's worth, they've allowed the six highest completion percentage on deep balls this year.

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Speaker 2: He's a volatile.

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Speaker 1: Player, but given the landscape this week, he does make some sense. That's it for this tier, though there aren't obvious running backs and there aren't obvious tight ends, so we'll just move on to the next one.

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Speaker 2: For as rough of a week as it is.

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Speaker 1: At wide receiver, we actually have some reasonable quarterback streamers. One of them is Matthew Stafford, who fits in this bucket of players rostern in twenty to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. Stafford's coming off a big game against the Colts and he's back at home on Thursday night against the forty nine ers. Now it's technically a tougher matchup on paper, but San Francisco they've just been average this year and adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks, though they haven't been the best matchup for accumulating a ton of yards, and that is somewhat of a concern and It's also concern that the forty nine ers probably won't be able to do that much offensively in this game, given all their injuries, and we would like that to have Matthew Stafford sort of keep up the pace. But Stafford in the Rams, they've a really high twenty six point imply team total. If they get there, he's likely going to have something to do with it, and that's why he's okay. Still as a streamer, I think Jackson Darts a good streamer this week too. We saw his rushing on full display last week, giving fantasy managers over eleven points with his legs alone. Now he gets an easier matchup against the Saints in a domed environment. The Saints have been the ninth best matchup for quarterbacks so far this year by justin points allowed in their pass rush. According to PFF data, it's simply been just average. So even without Malik Neighbors, I think Dart can get by on his rushing production. Now, someone we won't get that much rushing production from is Sam Darnold, but I don't mind him this week against Tampa Bay, the Bucks have been an above average matchup for quarterbacks this year by justin points allowed and the Seahawks have almost a twenty four point imply team total. This is in Seattle too. Really, when I look across the board pace defensive matchup regression for Seattle, it's just like an above average matchup overall. So Darnald could walk away with a couple of scores in that same game. As a running backs, we'll go to the running back position and talk about Rashad White. At the time of there recording, I have no idea if Bucky Irving's gonna play. There's some strong speculation though that he's not gonna play, that he's gonna be out this week against the Seahawks. That would leave Rashad White as the one A in that backfield. White's coming off a game where he saw a solid four thirty five percent role participation rate and a twelve point eight percent target share. We know that White's a good pass catcher. That can happen again this week if Irving's out, and then he'd likely see double digit touches.

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Speaker 2: On the ground too.

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Speaker 1: The matchup is an amazing against Seattle, but you're getting volume in a good offense and that matters a lot in fantasy football. Woody Marx is still grouped in this tier, and yeah, after last week, you have to feel decent about him. The Texan's gonna Ravens team in Week five that has not been good against running backs this year. According to my adjusted Fantasy points allowed numbers, Baltimore is the number one opponent for running backs and they're banged up upfront. Marx looked great last week and he could build upon that fifty seven percent running back rush share that he saw against Tennessee. So he's a great play this week. Now, if you want a much deeper play compared to Rashad White and Woody Marks, one that might be more readily available, you could look at Blake Koram. Now, obviously Kian Williams is gonna lead that Rams backfield, we know this, but Korum is been really good this season. He's currently leading Williams and rushing yards over expected per attempt and rushing EPA per rush. And that's nothing against Kyron. He's been good this year too. They have comparable success rates. But this game for La could be higher scoring for the Rams and there's a chance and it's a blowout. The forty nine ers are really really banged up Meanwhile, Koram's been getting a larger larger role in this Rams offense, like even if the game script doesn't go severely in their.

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Speaker 2: Favor, he could get some work.

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Speaker 1: He's seen running back rush years of five percent in week one, twenty three percent in week two, twenty nine percent in week three, and then forty one percent in week four. That's not nothing within a really good offense. So I know some of you guys are struggling. Koram isn't the worst play in the world. I've got two wide receivers for you in this tier, and shocker, I'm not really in.

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Speaker 2: Love with them.

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Speaker 1: That's the way it is this week at wide receiver, Elic Iamanner's one of them. Calvin Ridley didn't play a whole lot last week's game against the Texans, and he's apparently dealing with some undisclosed injury or whatever the case is with Calvin Ridley. Iamanner didn't have a big outing last week, but he saw a thirty percent target chair. He's now hit a twenty eight percent target chair better in two of four games this year. And the Titans get a cardinal secondary that's banged up and it's been a top ten opponent for wide receivers by justin points allowed. He makes plenty of sense, even though it's really hard to get overly excited about anyone in this Titan's offense. Troy Franklin is the other wide receiver for real. I like Iaman or more than Franklin, but Franklin continues to run a strong number of routes in that Denver offense. He's been in an eighty percent route chair in each of his last three and his target shairs this season are sixteen percent, thirty percent, seventeen percent, and nineteen percent. There's nothing wrong with that. The Broncos could face a pass heavier game script this week as road underdogs against the Eagles, and maybe we see them open things up a little bit. Not that it's super easy to do that against Philadelphia, but I do think Franklin could walk away from this game with seven or eight targets, and that's rare to find in this tier this week. Oddly, there are some really intriguing tight end streamers this week. Darren Waller is actually one of them.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Waller only ran around on thirty six percent of Miami's dropbacks in his debut on Monday night. But not only did he see a solid fifteen percent target share, he had all of their end zone targets. We might see that route participation rate just gradually rise as Darren Waller gets more and more acclimated and Tyreek Hill is now out and the Dolphins get the Panthers this week, which is a decent matchup for tight ends. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I actually don't mind Darren Waller. In the year twenty twenty five, Breton Strange has been low key kind of good this year. He's fifteenth in routes share among all tight ends, He's got a seventeen percent target chair, and he scored double DIGITPPR points in back to back games.

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Speaker 2: Now, I don't love this match up against.

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Speaker 1: Kansas City, but usage like this isn't super easy to find it tight end, so you can stream him. I would, however, play Harold Fannin over both of those guys. I actually like Fannin a lot this week. Despite Dylan Gabriel getting the start for Cleveland, the Browns are gonna be without Cedric Tillman, and while I do expect someone like Isaiah Bond to step up, we'll talk about him later. I would imagine Cleveland runs a lot more twelve personnel than they usually do, even though they're not afraid to do that in the first place. That could lead to more Harold Fannin. Fannon has a shot to be sort of the de facto's slot player for Cleveland this week, and they're facing Minnesota. Minnesota, they rank first in the NFL and adjusted slot target share allowed teams are targeting the slot a lot when they face the Vikings. So I could see a scenario here where Gabriel is looking for these high percentage looks, and that's Harold Fannin's game. We might see like a seven catch sixty yard performance from him. That's just the way this offense might operate in Week five. This next tier players consists of deep sleepers. The guy's rostered in fewer than twenty percent of Yahoo leagues. Now, I don't have a quarterback for you in this tier. Let's move on to running back. We actually have quite a few. Let's talk about Kendre Miller first. I talked about Miller on yesterday's ten Trends episode, noting how a snapshare has been rising each week this season and last week, we saw him get mixed in throughout the game, leading to a forty two percent running back rush share. He's still not been very involved as a receiver, which is a problem for possible negative game scripts. But this week the Saints are hosting the Giants in a game where the Saints are actually a slight home favorite. New York has been the third best matchup for running backs this year by justin points allowed, so I think that Miller makes some sense as a deep desperation play. Kind Of similar to that is Rico Dowdell. He's not the RB one on his team either, but he's getting some work each week in his backfield and Shoopa Hubbard has been dealing with this calf injury, but Daddall's seem consistent running back rush share so over the last three weeks he's been at thirty eight percent, thirty seven percent, and thirty five and he'll get a target or too per game as well. And this week the Panthers get the Dolphins. Have you watched the Miami Dolphins play defense. They've been above average matchup for running backs this year, and they're lying about eleven yards over expected on the ground of the position as well. Again, not a great play, but that's what you get in this tier. Now. I talked about Rashad White earlier and now he's not a bad play. If Bucky Irving's out, that could extend to Sean Tucker too. Tucker's a very capable player. He was a really good prospect who only went undrafted because of a heart condition, and he's looked good when he's got an opportunity in the NFL. I referenced it earlier this week, but Tucker had that crazy game last year where he had almost two hundred total yards and two scores.

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Speaker 2: Rashad White won't see every touch in.

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Speaker 1: The Buccaneers backfield, and there's always a chance they lean on Tucker more than we're expecting, so he's a deep sleeper. Isaiah Davis is another deep sleeper like Tucker. I was a fan of Davis when he came out a couple of years ago, and I thought he looked good as a rookie. In my opinion, he was more interesting than Brayln Allen After twenty twenty four, but the Jets have liked Alan size Alan's sideline now that allows Davis to step in and play alongside Breese Hall. Davis is more of a pass catcher than Allen too. He actually had a twenty nine percent route share in Week four, when Allen hadn't had that high of a route share all season long. In Week five, the Jets get the Cowboys. Dallas has had the most fantasy friendly defense in all of football to start the year, and that's leading to a game total of forty seven and a half points. Davis should be involved, and if he sees like ten or so touches, he might be flexworthy given the defense that he's facing.

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Speaker 2: Finally, we have Michael Carter.

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Speaker 1: He's the best playout of all the running backs in this tier in my opinion, and that's because Trey Benson is now on IR and I realized I talked about Trey Benson on yesterday's ten Trends episode. I obviously did that before we got this news that unfortunately happens. Stuff is going to change constantly throughout the season, but I think Carter's going to take the early down role for the Cardinals while Mari de Marcado mostly plays that pass catching role. That's the one that he's typically played for them. Nate Yankee of Pro Football Focus he tracks the early down roles for running backs, and he made this note on Blue Sky this week. He said the Cardinals have consistently had one running back on early downs and one on late downs since Drew Petsing has been the offensive coordinator. I expect Michael Carter to be the early down back and de Marcado to remain the third down back, rather than any other combo of early and late down. We haven't seen Carter and de Marcado in this exact situation before, but I'm with Nate. We saw a glimpse of this even in last week's game when Carter saw some early down work on a three and out against the Seahawks, but de Marcado's two carries they came in hurry up mode.

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Speaker 2: He's the two minute back.

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Speaker 1: But I think Carter's the one who's gonna see the moor consistent work, and this week in particular, it's a great game for him. The Cardinals get the Titans. That's again, they easily could be leading in the game. Scripts that Tennessee has faced has forced them to be the second best matchup for running backs by justin points allowed this year. So if that happens, if the Cardinals are leading, Carter could come through with a decent day. And for the record, I don't totally mind Mari de Marcado either, because we don't know exactly how this backfield's gonna shake out. I just personally think that Carter is the more logical play here in Week five. Now, moving on to wide receiver Darius Slayton makes some sense. This week New Orleans sees most of their targets against them hit the perimeter, and that's where Darius Slayton's gonna line up, and he'll be in store for a higher target share Without Malik Neighbors, New Orleans has also been the tenth best matchup this year by justin points allowed to wide receivers, so it's not a matchup that should scare you. The other waiver wire wide receiver this week was Malik Washington, and I'll mention to see what he can do in his increased role too. Miami gets Carolina and the Peter's been fine against receivers by justin points allowed, but they also faced a bottom ten number of dropbacks. This game has a close spread, it could be a closer score, which could lead to a more natural game flow. Honestly, Caroline has been part of some really weird game scripts this season, but Washington works on potential volume. Jalen Tolbert has now seen routchers of eighty nine percent and eighty three percent over the last two weeks, and with Ceedee Lamb likely out again this week, he should be in the same ballpark. And it sounds like Cavante Turpin's banged up too. But this has resulted in fourteen percent and sixteen percent target chairs for Tolbert over his last two games, which isn't great.

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Speaker 2: But those target chairs are fine.

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Speaker 1: The Cowboys have a twenty five point imply team total this week against a Jets team that's been just average against wide house to start the year, so maybe we get a little something out of Jalen Tolbert. Isaiah Bond is the last wide out to call out here. He'll likely find the field quite a bit with Cedric Tillman's sidelined, though I'm not overly in love with the matchup against the Vikings. They've been a top three team and adjust the points allowed to wide receivers. This is purely a volume thing. He was a good prospect. He just had some off the field issues, and he's coming off a game where he hit an eighteen percent target share and a solid seventy one percent routchare. I would imagine that routchair increases this week and that could lead to more fantasy points.

00:19:22
Speaker 2: At tight end.

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Speaker 1: Theo Johnson saw twenty five percent target share last week, and he's been running a route on about seventy percent in New York's dropbacks this season. The matchup isn't necessarily great on paper, but I'm interested to see if he sees an uptick with Jackson Dart and no Molik neighbors, so he's a worthwhile streamer. But I do like Mason Taylor Moore. Taylor has now seen routchairs above seventy percent in every game this year. He's had back to back performances with a seventeen percent target share and then a twenty six percent target share. He's essentially the number two receiving option for this Jets offense now and that could be profitable this week against a bad Dallas defense. And then lastly, I'm going cade Otton Cardiokade if you will. He rings third among all tight ends and route participation rate, but he's only seen a target on seven percent of his routes run. That's why he's cardiokad, He's just out there running sprints. But I do like this matchup against Seattle. Early data suggested the Seahawks might be a little bit more vulnerable to tight ends. They've allowed the second most adjusted Fantasy points in the position. Now, they faced some really good tight ends. Don't get me wrong, but those tight ends, they fared better against the Seahawks than other teams. So if Mike Evans sidelined, maybe Aughton gets going a little bit this week. Now. As far as defensive streamers, I mentioned Cleveland on the fifteen Transaction Show, and they work if they're still available. And yes, I'm aware that on the fifteen Transaction Show I accidentally said that they were playing at home this week. You guys definitely let me know that was my bad. There's also the Rams that front against a forty nine ers offense that's super super banged up. They should be able to get it done. And then I don't mind the Colts against the Raiders, even if that Colts defense isn't going to generate a ton of pressure. And then the Cardinals, they're an obvious play, but they're rostered in way too many leagues. Now, that's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.

00:21:26
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening everyone.

00:21:27
Speaker 1: I'll hit your ears tomorrow morning with another Mailbag episode.