421: Week 4 Matchups

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with with your host JJ zacher Retha j J zacher reefon What's up Everyone. It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at fandled at number fire dot com in this episode four hundred and twenty one of the Late Round podcast on the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. As usual, I had some big hits and some big misses last week. I got Ryan Fitzpatrick Wright, but I missed on the Jacksonville passing attack, including Gardner Minshew. I also miss big on Joshua Kelly. I didn't see a negative game script coming for that Los Angeles Chargers team. The same could be said for the Ravens backfield. That offense just wasn't clicking against Kansas City. But I was right to be low on Deshaan Watson and I hit on Miles Gaskin too. I need to be better, though, week over week I expect way better, so hopefully we have a good episode here in week four. Now, before getting into players that I like more and less than the consensus this week, I want to remind you guys to enter the Sunday Million Over on Fandel. If you missed out in the first three weeks of the season, don't worry. The stage is set for you to play for a big payday here in Week four. For just four dollars and forty four cents, you can enter the Week four NFL Sunday Million and compete for your share of the two point seventy five million dollar prize pool, including a one million dollar first place prize. For more details, vi was at fandle dot com or download the Fandel app today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Ryan Fitzpatrick is my top streamer this week, and he's my top streamer by a good margin. The Seahawks defense has been very beatable this year. Quarterbacks are averaging about four point two more points per game against them compared to their season long averages, and the three quarterbacks of the Seahawks have faced have averaged almost four hundred and forty passing yards per game. They've allowed the highest adjusted net yards per attempt in football this year. So enter Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's been a top ten quarterback in each of the last two weeks, so you can at least feel good that he has has proven production. He's been a decent fantasy asset. This game is a high fifty four point over under, and with the Dolphins as six and a half point underdogs, they still have a decent enough implied team total. So all of this combined makes me feel really really good about Ryan Fitzpatrick this week. Now, you could also look to Baker Mayfield if you can't get Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Cowboys have allowed the eighth worst yards per attempt a net yards per attempt rate this year, and even though the Browns are a run heavy team, we shouldn't assume they'll be able to be that run heavy this week, and as four and a half point underdogs according to Fandals Sportsbook, what's more important to that game is that there's a fifty five point game total. The Browns have an implied team total north of twenty five this week. We haven't seen a ton from Mayfield as a fantasy producer so far this year, but we've also seen him with just twenty three pass attempts in each of the last two weeks, the Browns have a passed to rush touchdown ratio of one. They've had the same number of passing touchdowns as rushing touchdowns, and that could easily check in a game like this where there's a chance that they play from behind or at least have to play catch up with one of the better offenses in the league. And by the way, that passed to rush touchdown ratio is well below average. So I like Baker Mayfield in this matchup against Dallas, and I would be streaming him and Fitzpatrick over Tom Brady this week. I mean, let's not pretend that Brady's been this amazing fantasy starter so far this year. He's finishes the QB thirteen and the QB eight in two of his three weeks, but he had a really average fantasy performance against Carolina, and he's had three decent matchups to start the year. The reason I don't love him, though, is because the Chargers aren't a super easy matchup. They've played above expectation in terms of fantasy points allowed, and even though they won't have Chris Harris in the secondary this weekend, the Buccaneers likely won't have Chris Godwin. More on that matchup later, But I do worry about Brady without Chris Godwin in this matchup, So I guess I would say Brady's fine, but I think there's more upside to be had with Mayfield and Fitzpatrick this week, and then there's Ryan Tannehill. I would try to not start Ryan Tannehill this week. The Steelers are generating more pressure than any other team in football, and the Titans have been slightly below average at allowing pressure. I've got to state the obvious here too. I've got to say that I'm a little bit worried about Tennessee's offense without a ton of reps this week. At the time of this recording, I don't know exactly when this Steelers Titans game is going to be played, and this is all because of these positive COVID tests, but I don't think that it's a good thing that Tennessee's facilities are closed until Saturday. Maybe Tannehill and the Titans offense shocks everyone, but I wouldn't be very bullish on them here in Week four. David Johnson is ranked way too low this week over on Fantasy pros. I'm just excited about the Texans offense in general. They're coming off two of the toughest matchups in the league after facing Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and now they get a beatable Minnesota defense in a game with a fifty four and a half point over under. Johnson is one of two running backs in the league right now with an eighty five percent running back rush share and a twelve percent target share. The other running back with those numbers Ezekiel Elliott. That's it. So David Johnson should be a very rock solid RB two this week, but he's being ranked as a lower end one, and I think you can absolutely go back to Mike Davis this week. The Panthers are also involved in the game with a relatively high over under, and they're just three and a half point underdogs. That's all Cordon and Fandels sportsbook. So like a lot of these other underdogs this week, the Panthers still have a pretty high implied team total regardless of game script, though Mike Davis is going to be involved. What's amazing is that in last week's game against the Chargers, despite the win, Davis still saw thirty two percent of the team's targets and he had eighty six percent of the team's running back rushes. Those numbers are legitimately elite, and it's a continuation of what we saw when Christian McCaffrey left that game with an injury in Week two, so Davis should be ranked higher this week. He's at least an RB two option moving forward without CMC in the mix. And then, lastly, for the guys that I like more than the consensus, I've got to go back to Miles Gaskin. He's being ranked as a middle of the road RB three, but I think he should be higher. Just look at the peripherals. He's seen almost seventeen percent of the team's targets this year, and we've watched his running back rush are climb from forty one percent in week one to thirty seven percent in Week two, all the way to seventy nine percent in Week three, and he looked good and like Davis, even if a negative game script hits, Gaskin should be on the field since they're using him so much as a pass catcher, he seems like a really safe option this week in a game where there could be a lot of Fantasy football love. Now, after being into Joshua Kelly the last couple of weeks, I'm not into him this week. I'm actually surprised he's ranked as highly as he is. Right now. I'm afraid of a negative game script though, because last week we saw Kelly handle only forty percent of the team's running back carries and he only had a four percent target share, and that was in a negative script. Now he gets Tampa Bay. The Bucks ranked sixth and expected points allowed to running backs and their ninth and success rate allowed to the position. I think we see another strong Austin Eckler performance in this matchup, and in the last situation. A running back that I want to get to on this show is the backfield for Detroit. DeAndre Swift is currently being ranked ahead of Adrian Peterson. I have no idea how we can feel any confidence in DeAndre Swift after not even carrying the ball last week and just playing nine percent of the team snaps like I get DeAndre Swift. I get this play hypothetically. It's projected to be a higher scoring game against New Orleans and he's been used as a pass catcher. But until we see more work go his way, I don't know how we can trust him. There's a difference between buying super low on a guy, or at least believing in the talent long term, versus playing him in this spot, and maybe he comes through, maybe the Lions just decide to use him more, but based off of our most recent sample, he's a massive, massive risk. Like I said before, I'm high on the Texans offense this week, and Brandon Cooks is one of the players that I definitely like. He hasn't really produced in fantasy, but like I just talked about, Houston's faced Baltimore and Pittsburgh over the last two weeks and cook still has a similar average at the target to Will Fuller and he has a nineteen point six percent target share. Minnesota secondary ranked second worst and adjusted points allowed to the wide receiver position. The Texans have a high implied team total. Brandon Cooks is a good play and he should be ranked higher than players like Brandon Auk and Lavisko Schnault this week, but he's not. Now. Aside from Cooks, I've got some really deep sleepers for you guys at wide receiver this week, and they're all slot guys. The first one is Hunter Renfro. Both Brian Edwards and Henry Ruggs are banged up, so it's gonna be the Darren Waller and Hunter Renfro show for this Raiders offense. Renfro saw over twenty eight percent of the Raiders targets last week. But more importantly to this matchup is what's gonna go down in the slot. Renfro's played sixty five percent of his snaps from that area of the field this year, according to Pro Football Folk, and the Bills have been really bad against slot receivers this year. No team is allowing a higher percentage of throws to go to the slot than the Bills are. So not only is Renfro set to see an uptick and targets because of the injuries to the other players in that lineup, to Rugs and Edwards, but he's got the matchup two. He's a solid deeper play this week. But let's dig even deeper. I talked about the Buccaneers wide receivers in the fifteen Transactions episode this week and how with Chris Godwin out we could see more work for slot guys like Justin Watson and Tyler Johnson. It sounds like Watson could be healthy this week. He practiced on Wednesday, and that would lead me to believe that he'll see the biggest increase in workload with no Chris Godwin. Without Godwin in Week two, Watson played sixty eight percent of his snaps from the slot. He was also on the field for over eighty eight and a half percent of Tampa Bay's offensive snaps. In Week one, when everyone was healthier, Watson played fewer than sixteen percent of the team snaps. There was clearly a big jump when Chris Godwin was not in the lineup. Now, typically this wouldn't be a great matchup because Chris Harris is a slot cornerback for LA. But Harris is out for four to six weeks with a foot injury, so that could mean that Watson is okay, though the matchup against Desmond King still isn't that great. I'd still play Scottie Miller over Justin Watson. But if you're in a super deep league, Watson should see a bump compared to his normal output. But let's dive even deeper, and honestly, I like this guy more than Watson a good bit more. And that's Isaiah Ford. I already talked about how I love Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, and you've got to love Devonte Parker. You gotta love Preston Williams because Seattle, like I mentioned on the ten trend Show yesterday. They have been awful, horrific against wide receivers. They've given up way more receptions and yards than any other team to wide receivers this year. They've also specifically been bad against slot guys. No team has a lot more total targets, receptions, and yards to slot receivers this year than Seattle. Now, that should mean that Mike is will eat in this matchup because Gasiki will play snaps from the slot. He's played seventy nine percent of his snaps from the slot this year, but Isaiah Ford has played ninety five percent of his from that place in the field. He didn't play a ton of snaps last week because of a positive game script, but in the team's first two games where they trailed, Ford snapperate was seventy four percent and sixty four percent. In those contests, he averages sixteen and a half percent target share That fell to about eleven percent last week. So if this game goes as we expect it to go, or Seattle keeps their foot on the gas and they get a lead, then Ford could end up being pretty usable as a deep play. I at least think it's logical now on the flip side. I love Jerry Judy's peripheral numbers, and I think overall he's a bye. He was a bye in fifteen transactions after the Courtland Sutton injury, and I still think he's technically a bye. That doesn't mean I love his outlook against the Jets this week. Is the matchup? Fine, yeah, but that game has an over under of just thirty nine and a half according to Fandles Sportsbook. We've got question marks at quarterback. He's just really hard to trust as a wide receiver three. So if you're between Judy and like Marvin Jones, I would lean Marvin Jones. I'm gonna always go for players who are in a similar tier, who are in higher scoring games. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I just got to trust the process. I think if you have t Y Hilton in like a twelve or a fourteen team league, you're likely starting him this week. But I know a lot of you are in smaller leagues than that, and I think there's a case to be made for him to be benched this week. I tend to play it safe when it comes to volume in production. I'd rather see a guy go off on my bench than him. Give me a goose egg in my starting lineup, and look, Hilton should be fine without Paris Campbell and Michael Pittman in that lineup. He should hit a new season high in target chair. But Chicago's been one of the best teams against wide receivers versus expectations so far this year, and that game has a pretty ugly forty three and a half point over under. We know Hilton has big playability, so there is some concern for me that this will bite me in the butt. But I'm about five to ten spots lower on Hilton than the consensus this week. He can still find your lineups in most leagues, but in shallower ones it's not the easiest spot in the world for him. I won't tout Logan Thomas and Dalton Schultz again this week as streamers because I do it every single week and it's probably getting boring. Thomas still has great peripheral numbers, though he just has a bad quarterback, and Schultz is in a good offense while running lots and lots of routes. So they're both strong enough options if they're still on your waiver wire, but I'd rather dig a little bit deeper. I say that phrase all the time on the show. I feel like, well, let's start with Eric Ebron. Ebron finally saw an uptick and target shore this past week, seeing twenty percent of Pittsburgh's targets. Deontay Johnson being sideline might have helped, and maybe Johnson ends up playing this week. But the Titans have been bad against tight ends to start the year. They're in the top five and adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position, allowing a tight end touchdown each week so far this year. Maybe that screams regression, but we know that's the way the Steelers might deploy Eric Ebron throughout the season. He's a red zone threat, He's a dart throw tight play, but I don't hate it. Robert Tanian's another player to have on your radar. He saw seventeen percent of Green Bays targets this past week. He's running a decent number of routes and he gets the Falcons in Week four. Atlanta ranks second and adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight end so far this year, where they've given up a tight end eleven performance to Greg Olsen in Week one, a tight end seven to one to Dalton Schultz in Week two and then last week a tight end one performance. To of course, Jimmy Graham, it should be a highest scoring game between the Falcons and the Packers, and if you want to get a cheap piece of it, tanyan kind of works. The game with the lowest over under this week is the Broncos and Jets, and I think both team defenses can actually be used. We saw why we target the Jets offense last week. Indianapolis was the highest scoring defense in fantasy football, but with Brett Rippin under center for Denver, the Jets actually are in play as well. A really quick process for targeting a defense is to look at the over under and the point spread. If there's a low over under, that's great, and if the point spread really favors one team, then that team is probably in play as a defensive streamer because the defense will be in a positive game script, which means more sacks and more turnovers. Now, we also need to look at the individual matchups and how an offensive line will handle potential pressure. But at a high level, you can just look at the game line and go from there. With the Jets as just a one and a half point underdog, I don't think the Broncos should just be so so far ahead of them defensively this week in rankings. I'd rather play the Broncos, but the Jets are very much in play as a streamer too. I also say that Kansas City was ranked pretty low this week, and I actually kind of like them. They're seven point favorites against New England, and though I do think New England's going to come with a run heavy approach and that could limit sacks and turnovers, I'm not sure they're going to be able to just do that all game long, not with the way that Kansas City played this past week and so far this year. Kansas City's defense is well above average and pressure rate, while New England's been below average and pressure is allowed. So I don't mind Kansas City despite what this over under says. That's gonna do it. For today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You know, I forgot to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. One more show this week, the Mailbag episode that will be out tomorrow. I'll talk to you then