431: 15 Transactions for Week 7

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha J J Zacherson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at fandeled at number five dot com. And this is episode four hundred and thirty one of the Late Round podcast and the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. It's just me today saying it, but thanks for tuning in. The twenty twenty NFL season is in full swing, and there's no easier way to get in on the action than with FanDuel's Gridiron Pick Them contest. All you have to do is pick the winner of each week's matchups correctly, and you'll take home a share of the five thousand dollars weekly jackpot. The best part, it's completely free to play. To enter for free, visit playfree dot fandel dot com slash Gridiron Eligibility restrictions apply. Now, let's dig into this week's transactions by Deontay Johnson. So sometimes with these transactions, I just have to feel things out. I have to look at what people are saying on social media, on Twitter in particular, and I kind of have to just go from there. People seem to be very down on Deontay Johnson. I mean, last week in my mentions, people were asking me if they should just drop Deontay Johnson because of Chase Claypole emerging in this offense. And the answer to that is no, absolutely not. Do not drop Deontay Johnson. And because of this thinking, because people are thinking this way, this is probably a time to buy Deontay Johnson. I'm not one to usually trade for an injured player, and Johnson missed this past week with a back injury, but according to Pro Football Doc it's not a major injury. There's a chance that he was going to play in Week six, so he should be back on the field soon. And when he's been on the field, he has produced. In Week one, he had a thirty two point three percent target share, Week two thirty one point seven percent. It's just that things have happened over the last three games that Pittsburgh's played. Johnson had a concussion, and then he got this back injury where he missed a huge chunk of that game, and then he missed all of last week's game. His lack of production over his last two games that he's played has nothing to do with skill and has to do with an injury or multiple injuries. And I'm just gonna repeat what I said last week on this show, Chase Claypole's emergence hurts James Washington when everyone's healthy more than Deontay Johnson. Obviously, Johnson was out this past week, so James Washington was able to ball out. But in weeks one and two, the two games where Deontay Johnson's been healthy, the snap split between Johnson and Washington was one hundred and nine to sixty eight, and that was in Deontay Johnson's favor. So what I'm saying here is Chase Claypool can continue to do what he's been doing. With Deontay Johnson back and healthy, they both can get theirs. Because let's be honest, Juju Smith Schuster is not getting his. He has a really low average at the target. His target share isn't very strong. He's not someone that you can reliably start in fantasy football right now, and because of that, it's going to be very for some of these guys like Deontay Johnson to be able to see a decent enough target share to be reliable week in and week out. So me saying buy Deontay Johnson. It doesn't mean to sell Chase Claypole. You should be buying both of those players because they're both awesome, But right now people don't think that Deontay Johnson is awesome. Ad Boston Scott. So Miles Sanders left Sunday's game with a knee injury, and then on Monday, Adam Schefter tweeted that Sanders is likely going to be sidelined for one to two weeks. He's at least gonna miss Thursday's game, So that leaves us with Boston Scott. He and Corey Clement shared the backfield back in Week one when Miles Sanders missed that game. The Eagles are really bad offensively, but let's look at the peripherals. Boston Scott saw a snapshare of about fifty six percent to Clement's thirty seven percent. He handled nine carries to Clements six, and then both of them had two targets. So I would expect Scott to be the one A in this backfield, and they've got a relatively decent matchup against the Giants on Thursday. Sell or hold DeAndre Swift. So this is one of those transactions where context really really matters. The headline readers of the fifteen transactions call him aren't gonna like this transaction, or at least they're not going to know how to utilize it. But on Sunday, DeAndre Swift ran the ball fourteen times for one hundred and sixteen yards and two touchdowns. He had a huge game, and most importantly about that stat line, he had three goal line touches. He only had one across the first five weeks this season. That's the good news. The bad news is that he still played just thirty seven point seven percent of Detroit's offensive snaps, and even though he did see an increase in running back rush are he only saw about forty two percent of the Lion's running back rushes, so his peripheral numbers were not very strong. He's trending up, but those numbers didn't really match that Week six stat line. So here's what you do, or here's what I would do. If you have DeAndre Swift and your team has won two or maybe three wins this year, you might want to go out and try to sell high on this performance because you need to win right now. But if you can afford to wait this thing out and winning teams probably can. That's not a bad idea because Swift is a talented running back who's already shown that he can catch the ball out of the backfield. He has a target chair that's above twelve percent this year, and if that running back rush sher continues to trend up, then we're looking at a potential strong running back during the second half of the season. So if you're a bad team with Swift, sell them. If you're a good team with Swift, I would hold him and Lemichael p Ryan. So there hasn't been a fifteen transaction show since Le'Veon Bell signed with the Chiefs. But with Bell no longer on the Jets, that backfield is now Frank Gore, who's forty five years old, Ty Johnson, who's actually I think kind of underrated, and then rookie Lemichael p Ryan. P Ryan saw a decent amount of work on Sunday. He ran the ball seven times, he had a few targets, and in terms of market share, he finished the game with thirty three point three percent of the teams unning back rushes and a seven point seven percent target chair. Those types of numbers aren't gonna do much for you week over week, but you're not adding pe Ryan this week because you want immediate production. You're hoping that his role grows because it's not like he's competing with really really good running backs. Nothing against Frank Gore. And get this, despite those market share numbers that were pretty mediocre, pe Ryan played sixteen more snaps than Frank Gore. Gorg just out rushed him eleven to seven. So I think that he's worth a stash and the Jets should get Sam Darnold back soon and hopefully, fingers crossed, the Jets don't have Adam Gase soon because he ruins Fantasy football by Jerry Judy. So look, guys, Jerry Judy's rookie season has not been great in terms of production. Through five games, he's finishes the wide receiver forty four or worse and weekly scoring four different times, and if not for a really great touchdown, a long touchdown against the Jets, he'd be five for five. But his peripheral numbers really aren't that bad. He ranks in the top twenty in air yards per game of all skill position players, and he's seen a target share of at least eighteen percent in all but one of his games played this year. On the season, he has a twenty point six percent target share. That's a number that's been matched by just twenty five different wideouts. And I should mention that Denver hasn't played with Drew Locke every single game this year, they haven't had their quarterback, and they faced a relatively tough schedule for wide receivers. I just think that right now is a really decent time to buy very low on Jerry Judy because it shouldn't take a whole lot to acquire him. Sell Ryan Tannehill. So if you listen to the Late Round podcast over the offseason, you know that I liked Tannehill as a later round quarterback this year. It was kind of a weird situation where last year, when he took over as starter for Tennessee, he was a top three quarterback in fantasy football from when he took over through the end of the season. Traditionally, we would have expected a player like that to be like a top seven or eight quarterback the following year, but everyone's gotten smarter in the fantasy football world. People recognize regression, and as a result, he was being drafted as like a mid or lower end QB two. It seemed like the market was overstating the regression. Now I'm saying all of this because I just want to make note that I like Ryan Tannehill. I think Tannehill is really good, but I also think that you should try to sell him right now. Trading away a quarterback in a single quarterback format is almost always a good idea in fantasy football, but I think there are additional reasons to get rid of Tannehill right now. One of those reasons is his touchdown rate. Last season, when he was incredibly efficient, his touchdown rate was seven point seven percent. That's very high. That's a very good touchdown rate, and given historical evidence, we would expect that type of number to regress maybe closer to six percent the following year. So far in twenty twenty, it's seven point five percent. It's almost identical to last year. Meanwhile, when you look at his passing yards to touchdowns ratio, that looks a little bit messed up too. From twenty eleven to twenty nineteen, quarterbacks threw a touchdown on every one hundred and sixty two point six yards. Now in twenty twenty, that number is closer to one hundred and fifty yards because offenses are scoring a lot of points right now. But even still, no matter how you look at it, if you want to look at it from twenty eleven to twenty nineteen or just twenty twenty, Tannehill is over performing in the touchdown column. He's thrown a touchdown in every one hundred and five passing yards this year. Now, look, Ryan Tannehill is a better than average quarterback. He's probably a top ten quarterback, and good quarterbacks tend to have better marks in all these statistics in passing yards to touchdowns and touchdown rate. Good quarterbacks are going to be better than average, even though these numbers do regress. It's just that Ryan Tannehill's numbers are so so good right now. It's very, very difficult to maintain this type of pace. And considering that they just lost Taylor Lawan to an ACL injury, and moving forward they get Pittsburgh, Chica, Indianapolis, and Baltimore and four of their next five games, I think there's a lot of reasons to sell Tannehill right now. Drop Marvin Jones. Sometimes you guys just need someone to say, drop this guy. I can be that guy for you, but I want to be clear, with Marvin Jones, I would only be dropping him in shallower leagues because we know that Jones has a high ceiling, at least a high weekly ceiling. We've seen that in the past. The threat is always there, and his Week six target chair wasn't that horrendous at sixteen percent. But since Kenny Galladay has come back from his injury, Jones is averaging a ten point nine percent target share per game. On the season, He's yet to finish higher than wide receiver thirty eight and weekly scoring. It has not been a good year for Marvin Jones. So if you're in a shallower league, you can drop him, add or buy Dallas Goddard. So hopefully you listen to Friday's Mailbag episode, because I actually talked about adding Dallas Goddard on that show. I know it was later than the Transactions episode, but I wanted to bring up these guys that are coming off IR and how they sort of slipped through the cracks. With Dallas Goddard, He's still available in sixty percent of Yahoo leagues and he could come back as soon as this week. I don't know if we see it happen, but it's possible. And not only was he out producing zach Ertz before his Week three injury, but now Ertz is sidelined. Now Ertz has an injury, he's out for three to four weeks. So if Goddard does return soon, he's going to be probably the top target in this Philadelphia offense, or at least one of them. And after having about a twenty percent target share across the first two weeks this season, Goddard needs to be rostered everywhere. The tight end position is not good enough for Dallas. Goddard to be a free agent. Add Travis Folgum. So, speaking of the Eagles, Travis Folgum is still out there in seventy percent of Yahoo leagues. Of course, I mentioned him last week after his blow up game against Pittsburgh, but then he had another good game against Baltimore this week. He's now seen thirty six point one percent and twenty six point three percent of the team's targets over the last two weeks. He's been targeted fifteen or more yards down the field six times. That's one of the higher marks in the NFL over the last two weeks. Even when the other Philadelphia pass catchers come back, I think Folgham is going to have a role, so keep him on your team and Adam if he's a free agent. By Miles Gaskin. So last week, not in the fifteen Transactions episode, but on another episode, I talked about wanting to buy Miles Gaskner, wanting this to be a transaction in the fifteen Transactions episode. I wish I would have last week, but fortunately he didn't find the end zone this week. I'm just not sure the fantasy football world realizes how good Miles Gaskin has been. He's now seen almost sixty two percent of Miami's running back rushes this year and almost a fifteen percent target share, and those numbers only are getting better and better. Jordan Howard's been a healthy scratch in each of the last two games for the Dolphins, and in those games, Gaskin has averaged a seventy percent running back rush are and almost a sixteen percent target share per game. Guys, I can't stress this enough. Those are elite numbers, and more importantly, he's taken on the role as the goal lineback. He's seen all three running back touches at the goal line over the last two weeks without Jordan Howard and within the ten yard line, he's seen six of the seven running back touches. It doesn't look like Miles Gaskin is just going away, And I think that this is one of those instances where it just takes time for these players who emerge from nowhere. It takes time for fantasy managers to realize that they're legit. We might still be in that window where people don't fully realize it with Miles Gaskin ad Sterling Shepherd. So another player who could return from injury this week is Sterling Shepherd. He's been out with a tow injury since Week two. Now, back in September, he didn't do a whole lot against Pittsburgh and Chicago, but in twenty nineteen, don't forget he averaged a target share per game of about twenty four percent. It was actually over twenty four percent. The Giants have a fairly soft schedule moving forward. I think Sterling Shepherd, who's still available in like seventy percent of leagues, I think that he's a good ad By Tyler Boyd. The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the most pass heavy teams in the NFL, and we should have seen this coming over the offseason, I talked about how if you look at neutral script pass rates, not overall pass rates, but neutral script pass rates, those numbers are more predictive for next season's overall ratio than the overall pass rates translating year over year. And last season Cincinnati was not good. We know that, but even in neutral game scripts they were pass heavy. We would expect them to be pass heavy overall because they were often in negative game scripts. But even when games were close for Cincinnati, they were throwing the ball a lot. That's what this offense wants to do, and that helps all of the pass catchers in this offense, including Tyler Boyd. He hasn't finished higher than Wider Receiver twenty and weekly wide receiver rankings since Week three, but I wouldn't be that concerned. He said at least a twenty percent target share in each of his last four contests. And honestly, guys, go look at the Cincinnati Bengals upcoming schedule. The only tough matchups they have moving forward is against Pittsburgh, and as we know, the Steelers aren't as tough against slot receivers. So I like Tyler Boyd hold Mike Kasiki. So it was rough for Mike Kasiki. In Week six. He scored zero fantasy points and a lot of you are probably thinking, I want to drop Mike Kasiki right now. I want to tilt drop him. Don't do that, though. According to Pro Football Focus, he still ran twenty four routes on Sunday that was significantly higher than any other tight end on the team. He actually ran more routes than Preston Williams. It only resulted in about a seven percent target share, but Kasiki still ranks in the top fifteen and tight end target share this year. Tight Ends don't grow on trees. It's hard to find any usage at the tight end position, so just hold tight. Add Teddy Bridgewater. The Panthers offense wasn't that great against Chicago this past week in a tough matchup, but things do look a little bit better. In Week seven. They get the Saints in a game according to Fanduels Sportsbook that has a fifty one point over under and the Saints rank is the second best matchup for fantasy quarterbacks in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed this season. Not only that guy's, but Bridgewater continues to be a pretty huge regression candidate. He's thrown for sixteen hundred and seventy seven yards, but he only has six passing touchdowns on that total. He should be closer to ten or eleven. That's the biggest discrepancy on the negative side in all of football, so don't expect him to maintain this current rate of throwing touchdowns all season long. Add the Philadelphia Eagles defense. The Eagles defense is rostered in just thirty one percent of Yahoo leagues, so they're a streamer for a lot of you listening to this. They're a very viable defensive streamer the Giants on Thursday Night, that game is a forty four and a half point over under, and the Eagles right now are four point favorites. They've got a shot to see a positive game script defensively, and that would be nice against Daniel Jones. In their five losses this year, every defense that they faced has ranked in the top eight and fantasy points scored that week. The sixteenth transaction that you can't get in my fifteen Transactions column over on Number five dot com this week. It's a two fur or maybe a three fur, but it's to add Tevin coleman I guess Jamichael Hasty and then Gus Edwards. This is strictly based off of injuries that sort of happened on Sunday. Mark Ingram hurt his ankle, Gus Edwards stepped in and he saw half of Baltimore's running back rushes. Mark Ingram' hit a fifty percent running back rush here in just two of his games played this year. Because that Baltimore backfields annoying. The Ravens do have a bye this week, but keep an eye on the Ingram situation. And then with Tevin Coleman, he was supposed to return from his injury around this time Raheem Moster. It's apparently going on IR with a high ankle sprain. So Coleman could be a sneaky ad this week given his injury. Timeline showed that he'd be back around right now. But also watch for news on Jamichael Hasty. He ended up carrying the ball nine times when Moster got hurt on Sunday night. I do think Jeric McKinnon's the big winner here, like we saw before when Moster was sidelined, but you should still be throwing some darts at the other guys in his backfield. Basically, this sixteenth transaction is to remind you guys that there were a couple of running back injuries that we have to monitor this week. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and if you're listening on Apple podcasts, do me a big favor and leave a rating and review and never forgets follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, appreciate you. I'll be back tomorrow with the weekly ten trend show. H