920: Week 5 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacheras j J zacher rethon What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode nine and twenty of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. It's been a good couple of weeks for the Sleeper Show. Now, not everything has been perfect, of course. Last week the Cardinals wide receivers weren't nearly as good as I expected them to be. Romeo Dobbs was pretty average and to Mario Douglas went back to having a low target share. But I'm happy with some of the other results. Gino Smith and Justin Fields were both top ten options. Justice Hill at a top ten performance, Rico Dowdles scored, Wandel Robinson had a nice day. Josh Downs took advantage of his slot matchup. Tucker Craft was good, Xavier Lagete had a nice day. Overall, with the type of players that I'm looking at it on this show each week, I'm very happy with those results. Let's hope progression doesn't it here in week five. Now, before we get into the Sleepers this week, make sure you're checking out what's going on over at Underdog fantasy football draft season might be over, but it's not over. On Underdog. You can draft teams each week over there based on the slate of games, and those drafts are for all sorts of price points in different sizes. There's also pick them and Champions mode that you can dig into as well. If you want to get in on the action, head to underdog Fantasy dot Com and sign up. When you sign up, use promo code late Round. That'll get you a free pick, a nice deposit offer, and you'll also get my rest of season rankings. Those rankings are emailed to you from Underdog after you sign up, and they're updated every Tuesday. That's Underdog Fantasy dot Com promo code Late Round. We'll kick things off with players rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and we'll start with Justin Fields. He's still not up to that. Mark. Fields gets a banged up Dallas defense this week that's ranked as totally average as an opponent for quarterbacks this year and the fantasy points allowed. I'm also intrigued by the fact that Dallas's offense is probably the best one that Pittsburgh's faced all year, so we might see Pittsburgh and more of a neutral or even negative game script. They'll at least have to keep pace, and for some time now the Cowboys have been pretty bad at stopping the run. That also might help justin fields. After a huge Week four, he's a fine play in Week five now. Trevor Lawrence is just over that fifty percent mark over on Yahoo. But I want to talk about him because some of you might be questioning whether or not you should start him. I kind of don't mind him. This week against Indianapolis, the Colts are the six best matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. They've given up twenty five passing yards over expected to start the year. This is the defense that watched Caleb Williams throw three hundred and sixty three yards against them. Lawrence has no doubt struggled, but this contest is a reasonable over under, and both the Jags and the Colts have played at a top eleven pace this season. We could see a lot of plays run and more scoring than you usual. And then, as hard as it is for me to say this, Deshaun Watson's a streamer. This week they get Washington, and yes, the Commanders played better. They looked better against Kyler Murray last week, but they're still the third best matchup and adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and Cleveland actually has a team total over twenty points this week. Watson's been terrible, so I do think this is more of a desperation thing, like if Gino Smith is out there, or if you can play Lawrence or fields, do that, but the matchup is at least good on paper. Running Back is always the toughest position to do on this show because it's just in such high demand in fantasy football. When there's an opening for more work, the player gets rostered. But there are still some okay plays this week. First, if Jonathan Taylor is out, you could look at Trey Sermon. It's hard to find something super favorable to say about Sermon, but the matchup against Jacksonville that's great. They rank as the third best matchup for running backs and adjusted points allowed, and if you want a super deep play, Tyler Goodson might get some touches in the scenario too. If Jonathan Taylor is out at the time of this recording, though I don't know if Taylor's in or out this week now. Apparently the Patriots are considering making a switch at running back and giving Antonio Gibson the starter role because Ramandre Stevenson has these fumbling issues. Now, I'm not sure if they're going to go that far, but Gibson has now seen back to back games with the twelve and a half percent target share. He's seen his role participation rise every single week this season. Not only that, but Gibson leads Stevenson this season and rushing yards over expected per attempt rushing EPA per rush that's likely to do to the fumbles, and he's a little bit better in success rate. It's not in apples to apples comparison, of course, but it hasn't been terrible for Antonio Gibson this year. They're in a game this week against Miami that should definitely be low scoring, but it also could be run heavy. The Dolphins have seen the fourth lowest pass rate against them this season in neutral script situations. They're the sixth best matchup for running backs by adjusted points allowed, they're second worst for quarterbacks. So Gibson should at least be on people's radars. The Roshawn Johnson usage in Week four wasn't what many expected. There were multiple reports saying that he was going to be used more and then nothing really changed week over week. But there's a decent chance that he'll see goal line touches for Chicago and the Bears get the Panthers this week. Carolina has allowed the second most adjusted points to running backs this season, so he's in a spot where he could hypothetically touch the ball ten or more times. I mentioned on the fifteen Transaction Show this week, but Emmanuel Wilson has gotten legitimate run in this Packers offense. He's seen running back rushyers of forty seven percent over his last two games, and the Packers get the Rams this week. Green Bay is the third highest implied team total on the slate and the Rams are the seventh best opponent for running backs by adjusted points allowed. Again, these backs are rarely going to be must starts, but Wilson isn't a terrible option if you're hurting now sticking with the Packers and moving to wide receiver. Yeah, we're gonna talk about Dan Teve Wicks, but also Romeo Dobbs. They're both pretty good plays this week. I'm leaning Wis right now because he's getting run as a starter and he's coming off this monster game last week, where he scored almost twenty five PPR points and he had a twenty four percent target chair. As I said during the offseason, and as I said on the fifteen Transaction Show, Dantavian Wicks is also good. But it does kind of feel like people have forgotten about Romeo Dobbs. He wasn't the one who benefited last week, but he did have a ninety one percent route participation in a fifteen percent target chair. The Rams are also a team that's been torched on the perimeter this year. They ring dead last and adjusted slot rate, which means they're getting attacked on the outside, and that's definitely where we'll see Dobbs line up, and Wicks will be out there more often than not. Two Honestly, guys, all three of the Packers' wideouts are great plays this week. Now. I don't know if Malik Nighbors is going to be able to play this week. He's in concussion protocol as I'm saying this, but regardless of his status, I think Wandel Robinson is in play once again. The slot matchup isn't necessarily as desirable as last week's, but it's tough to not consider a guy who has a twenty eight percent target share on the season, and he could be in a negative game script. The Giants are six and a half point underdogs, so once again I'm calling out Wandel Robinson. Now one sneak year played this week. I think is keyon Coleman. I know he's been a disappointment, which is often what happens during the first half of the season for rookies, but here are the positives. In weeks one and two, his route participation was ninety percent. It was solid enough in a wonky game script. Last week at seventy three percent. In Week three, it was kind of weird because he was sidelined and discipline in the first quarter. Coleman, though, leads the Bills an airyard share right now. His average depth of target is fifteen point one yards. Teams have thrown at fifteen or more air yards against the Texans this year at the fifth highest rate, and Coleman's been a perimeter guy for them. And when adjusted for strength of opponent, teams are targeting the outside against Houston at the third highest rate in the league. There's definitely a ton of volatility with this play with Keon Coleman, but he's interesting in what could be a high scoring contest. Jerry Judy has a twenty one percent target share on the season, and he' said a twenty percent and twenty eight percent share over his last two games. Washington, as I noted earlier, has been beatable in the secondary dating back to last season. They're the second best opponent for wide receivers right now and adjusted points allowed, so Judy makes some sense as a sleeper play this week. I'm gonna also go back to Josh Downs. He's still not rostered in enough leagues. Indy gets Jacksonville as I talked about earlier, and the Jags are just pathetic defensively, or they have been. No team has allowed more ad justin fantasy points to wide receivers and as a slot receiver. Jacksonville is a top half team to target, but it's really just all receivers. You want to play wide receivers against Jacksonville, and Downs probably does get more of an uptick if Joe Flacco's under center, but he's seen target shares regardless of the quarterback of twenty eight percent and thirty two percent and his two games played this year, so he's a pretty good option. Now, we've thankfully seen more looks go to Brian Thomas and Christian Kirk over the last couple of weeks, but Gabe Davis has still hit about a fifteen percent target chair over his last two and last week he ran more routes than Thomas and Kirk. INDI's an above average matchup for wide receivers, and like I've been saying, this could be a decent game from a scoring perspective. He's not a great play, but he works as a bye week villain, and also make sure he's healthy. He was in a non contact jersey at practice on Wednesday. Now at the wasteland, that is the tight end position. We'll start with Tucker Kraft. The Rams have been a top twelve team for tight ends and adjusted points allowed this year, and the Packers have a nice implied team total. Craft has consistently seen fifteen percent target shairs in this offense, and he saw season high eighty six percent round participation in Week four. He's an obvious play this week. Tyler Conklin's another one. He's got a revenge game against the Vikings, and while Minnesota great defensively, that's actually been the second best matchup for tight ends by adjusted Fantasy points allowed, and they face the seventh highest adjusted target share to the position. Conklin leads the NFL in route participation. He's run a route on ninety percent of the Jets dropbacks, so he gets another look this week. Atlanta's actually been the second toughest matchup for tight ends this year by adjusted points allowed, and they've allowed a lot of looks to go to the slot. But they're going to wide receivers, so Chris Godwin should eat on Thursday night. That's as long as they do throw him in the slot, with Sterling Shepard being their wide receiver three. But regardless of all of that, kay Totten has finally seen his target share go up and sort of a line with his top three route participation. He's seen target shares of twenty five percent and nineteen percent over his last two He's been the tight end seven in both weeks. That alone means that he's a viable option at such a tough position. And then there's Colby Parkinson against Green Bay. I gotta mention him too. The Packers have seen tight ends get targets at the thirteenth highest rate in football this year when a justin for strength of opponent, and Parkinson has been really heavily involved in this offense over the last two weeks without Cooper Cup He's had target shares of twenty two percent and twenty four percent, So he's not a bad streaming choice at all. Now, I gave you a lot of normal sleepers this week, and that's a good thing because there aren't many deep sleepers or guys rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues you can consider playing. The only quarterback I want to call out here is Joe Flacco if Anthony Richardson misses this game. From what I'm seeing right now, though Richardson is trending in the right direction, but if he doesn't go, Jacksonville has been the worst team against quarterbacks this year by justin points allowed, so you can look Flacco's way. Now. I don't have any running backs for you in this tier, but keep an eye on the injury report. Devin Singletary didn't practice on Wednesday. That could really open things up for my guy, Tyrone Tracy. But I do have a pair of teammate wide receivers here technically one of them too to at well he's a little bit above the ten percent, but Jordan Whittington isn't. So far Without Cooper cup Atwell's kind of been the consistent force in that wide receiver room. He's seen at least twenty percent of LA's targets in each of their last two games, and he's run a route at a similar rate as to Marcus Robinson. He's seen roughly a third of the team's air yards during this time too. He's been pretty good. And then there's Jordan Whittington, who saw this big uptick last week. He ran the most routes for the Rams. He turned that into a thirty percent target chair. He's kind of playing a lower a dot role, but he surprisingly didn't get all of his run out of the slot in week four. That was really good to see. He's playing all over the field. Both guys are in play this week against the Packers because of that usage. I would lean at Well because he's been more consistent, but Whittington has plenty of usability if his usage keeps up into Week five. And then I've got one deep tight end sleeper for you this week, and it is pretty deep. It's Juwan Johnson. There's a lot of variance with Johnson given the fact that he's seen three total targets over his last three games, but we saw his route participation rise by about twenty percentage points from week three to Week four, and the Saints get the Chiefs this week. Kansas City has allowed the most adjusted fantasy points to tight ends this year, and they've allowed the highest adjusted target shair to tight ends. Week one, Isaiah likely twelve targets. Week two, Mika Siki and Eric All they had thirteen. Week three, Atlanta and Kyle Pitts had five targets, and then last week it was the Chargers and those guys hit a twenty three percent target share. Johnson's definitely a desperation play, but I think the logic is there now. As for streaming defenses, this week, Denver's no longer in play. Everyone went after them. But aside from them, you've got New England against Miami. They've been terrible offensively without Tua, And then if you want to get a little bit deeper, there's Vegas against Denver and maybe Indianapolis against Jacksonville given the Jag struggles. But New England is the top play of the highly available defenses right now now, as I've done each week, I'm want to look at some pickum spots you could look at over on Underdog, and I'll use strictly the players that I talked about on this show. Last week's picks finally did well. This week, I have two of them for you. We'll start with Trevor Lawrence higher than two hundred and sixteen and a half passing yards, and then we'll do Romeo Dobbs. He's going to score a touchdown, so over half of a touchdown. Those are the best ones available out of the crop that we talked about today. You can follow along if you want to by heading to Underdog Fantasy dot com or downloading the app. When you sign up, remember to use that promo code Late Round. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found eduf it's follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back tomorrow with the Mailbag episode and another episode of Late Round Perspectives. I'll talk to you then