Investors Brace for Key Inflation Data; Google Breakup?

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:10.039 --> 0:00:12.680 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and and I'm John Tucker. 0:00:12.720 --> 0:00:14.480 Here are these stories we're following today. 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:16.600 Well, John, the S and P five hundred is coming 0:00:16.640 --> 0:00:19.439 off its biggest four day rally of the year. It's 0:00:19.480 --> 0:00:22.720 gained four and a half percent during that stretch. Yesterday, 0:00:22.720 --> 0:00:25.560 the Nasdaq one hundred climb two and a half percent. 0:00:25.640 --> 0:00:28.920 In Wall Street's favorite volatility gauge, the VIS, tumbled to 0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:33.559 around eighteen. Sema Shaw, Chief Global strategistic Principal Asset Management, 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:36.360 is still bullish on the markets even if there. 0:00:36.240 --> 0:00:39.599 Is a genuine economic slowdown coming through. Given the resilience 0:00:39.640 --> 0:00:42.680 and the balance sheet strength of households and corporates, is 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:45.720 it likely that EFFED can't come to save the US 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:49.280 economy with various red cuts. So I put the chance 0:00:49.320 --> 0:00:52.279 of recession fairly low, which means an after a bit 0:00:52.320 --> 0:00:55.319 of volatility and pullback, I think the actually market can 0:00:55.360 --> 0:00:56.920 still ecout some positive gains. 0:00:57.240 --> 0:01:00.160 Principal Asset Management Sema Shaw notes that swaps trade is 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:02.720 a priced in about forty basis points in FED cuts 0:01:02.760 --> 0:01:05.000 in September and a total rate reduction of more than 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:07.600 one hundred and five basis points for twenty twenty four. 0:01:07.720 --> 0:01:11.039 Well, yesterday's rally was fueled in part by producer prices 0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:14.280 rising less than expected, and later this morning we're gonna 0:01:14.280 --> 0:01:17.360 get the latest reading on consumer prices. Sarah House is 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:20.720 in your ACOUNTABIS at Wells Fargo Corporate and Investment Banking. 0:01:21.240 --> 0:01:23.640 We're looking for a zero point two percent increase on booth, 0:01:23.640 --> 0:01:26.440 the headline and the core. So that's in line with 0:01:27.000 --> 0:01:29.120 the consensus, but I think the details are going to 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:31.600 be really important. So to what extent are we still 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:35.959 seeing outright goods deflation and are we seeing more progress 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:39.039 on the services side, both in housing but also the 0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:41.959 non housing services that have been such a such a 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:42.920 concern for the Fed. 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:46.520 Wells Fargo's Sarah House. Now, if the consensus holds, it 0:01:46.560 --> 0:01:49.480 would mark the smallest three month increase for core inflation 0:01:49.920 --> 0:01:51.880 since early twenty twenty one. 0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:54.920 And inflation is also in focus in Europe this morning. 0:01:55.000 --> 0:01:57.400 Let's get the latest on that with Bloomberg's w and 0:01:57.440 --> 0:01:58.800 Potts in London. 0:01:58.560 --> 0:02:01.760 You and Nathan and John. The headline rates of UK 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:04.800 inflation ticked up in July, but by less than expected, 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:07.440 with consumer prices two point two percent higher. Than a 0:02:07.520 --> 0:02:10.240 year ago, But it was a sharp drop in services 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:13.320 inflation that really got the attention of traders. That measure 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:16.520 fell from five point seven percent to five point two percent. 0:02:16.919 --> 0:02:20.400 Core inflation also fell to its lowest since September twenty 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:23.799 twenty one. The better than expected data saw investors fully 0:02:23.840 --> 0:02:27.120 price two more quarter point cuts in UK interst rates 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:30.040 this year. In London, I'm une parts Bloomberg Radio. 0:02:29.840 --> 0:02:32.000 All right, thanks to you and staying in Europe. Shares 0:02:32.040 --> 0:02:35.639 of UBS up almost two percent. The Swiss Bank posting 0:02:35.680 --> 0:02:38.680 higher than expended profit in the second quarter as strong 0:02:38.760 --> 0:02:43.079 client inflows in investment banking revenue help bolster chief executive 0:02:43.120 --> 0:02:46.880 officers Sergio or Mahdi's efforts to return capital to shareholders. 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:50.440 A year after completing the takeover of Credit Squeeze, the 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:54.000 bank says it's on track for pre merger levels of profitability, 0:02:54.360 --> 0:02:57.919 something Sergio or Madi tails Bloomberg he can deliver. 0:02:58.400 --> 0:03:00.000 Of course, is going to take a lot of time, 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:03.920 i am but to restore the profitability because the amount 0:03:04.000 --> 0:03:07.119 of task to be done is huge. But I'm confident 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:10.000 that we are on a good way to deliver. 0:03:10.360 --> 0:03:14.720 But despite Sergio Armandi's optimism, ubsays it's also expects to 0:03:14.720 --> 0:03:18.520 book another one point one billion dollars in integration related 0:03:18.680 --> 0:03:20.359 expenses in the third quarter. 0:03:20.680 --> 0:03:23.120 In Asia, John Japan is going to be looking for 0:03:23.160 --> 0:03:26.200 a new leader once again. Fumio Kashida is withdrawing from 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:29.720 his ruling LDP parties leadership race in September. That paves 0:03:29.720 --> 0:03:32.920 the way for someone else to become Japan's premier. The 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:35.400 successor would be the third prime minister for the country 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:37.880 since Shinzo Abe stepped down in twenty twenty. 0:03:38.120 --> 0:03:40.360 Now to the latest from the Middle East, the United 0:03:40.440 --> 0:03:42.840 Nations Security Council held a meeting of the tensions in 0:03:42.880 --> 0:03:46.480 the region as Israel waits for a potential reprisal attack 0:03:46.560 --> 0:03:50.560 from Iran. US Ambassador Linda Thomas Greenfield repeating calls for 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:52.360 a cease fire deal in Gaza. 0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:57.680 We've called on both sides to resume urgent discussion on Thursday, 0:03:57.760 --> 0:04:02.280 August fifteenth in Doha for Cairo to close all remaining 0:04:02.320 --> 0:04:06.400 gaps and commence implementation of the deal without further delay. 0:04:06.600 --> 0:04:09.880 Ambassador Linda Thomas Greenfield says a ceasefire is the best 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:12.760 way to bring immediate rely to the people in Gaza. Meantime, 0:04:12.760 --> 0:04:15.360 the Biden administration has approved a more than twenty billion 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:17.960 dollar weapons sale to Israel. We get more of that 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:20.520 from Bloomberg's Roz Matheson, Well, this. 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:22.280 Is the approval of a big event still that we 0:04:22.360 --> 0:04:24.279 knew was in the works, and it's involves up to 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:28.920 fifty fighter jets and fifteen fighter jets, upgrades for existing 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:33.120 fighter jets, everything from vehicles, ammunition, radar equipment. 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:34.239 It's a big deal. 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:37.080 It's got a lot in it, but the reality is 0:04:37.080 --> 0:04:38.760 that these planes are not going to come at least 0:04:38.800 --> 0:04:41.719 until twenty twenty nine, so there's some years away. 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:45.919 Bloomberg's Rhons Mathison reports the US paused weapons shipments to 0:04:46.000 --> 0:04:48.960 Israel and May over concerns that could be used against 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:52.680 civilians in Gaza. Two key Democrats drop their opposition to 0:04:52.720 --> 0:04:54.080 this weapon sale in June. 0:04:54.279 --> 0:04:56.720 Well John, a progressive member of Congress who has been 0:04:56.760 --> 0:05:00.760 outspoken against Israel's conduct in Gaza, has won her primary 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:03.800 in Minnesota with ninety nine percent of the votes counted. 0:05:03.839 --> 0:05:08.200 Democrat Illin Omar defeated former Minneapolis council member Don Samuels 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:11.920 fifty six point two percent to forty two point nine percent. 0:05:12.080 --> 0:05:15.200 Omar told her supporters her campaign was about joy. 0:05:15.560 --> 0:05:18.960 We know it is joyful to want to live in 0:05:19.160 --> 0:05:21.760 a peaceful and equitable world. 0:05:25.240 --> 0:05:25.960 So I am. 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:30.320 Incredibly, incredibly honored by this victory. 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:30.719 Tonight. 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:35.080 Congresswoman Ellan Omar's victory buck's a trend for progressives in 0:05:35.160 --> 0:05:37.479 Congress to other members of the so called squad. New 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:41.200 York's Jamal Bowman and Corey Bush of Missouri lost their primaries. 0:05:41.279 --> 0:05:44.760 Unlike those races, Pro Israel groups decided not to get 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:47.440 seriously involved in the Minnesota race and. 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:50.200 Turning back to the markets now, Dathan shares of Alphabet 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:53.800 down almost one percent in early trading. The Justice Department 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:57.240 is considering whether to force alphabets Google to break up. 0:05:57.680 --> 0:06:00.000 More from Bloomberg's Amy Morrison Washington. 0:06:01.000 --> 0:06:04.120 Officials with the DOJ are considering what would be a 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:07.120 rare bid to break up a big tech company after 0:06:07.160 --> 0:06:10.960 a landmark court ruling found that company monopolized the online 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:15.000 search market. Sources tell Bloomberg that less severe options include 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:18.440 forcing Google to share more data with competitors and measures 0:06:18.440 --> 0:06:22.160 to prevent it from gaining an unfair advantage in AI products. Now, 0:06:22.200 --> 0:06:24.560 even if it does not pursue a breakup, the government 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:27.280 will likely seek a ban on the type of exclusive 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:30.039 contracts that were at the center of its case against 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:33.120 Google in Washington, Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio. 0:06:32.960 --> 0:06:36.320 All right, Amy, thank you. Meantime, a merger is getting closer. 0:06:36.360 --> 0:06:39.520 Perhaps in the grocery ole. We're watching shares of Kelenova. 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:42.480 They're up about seven percent. The Wall Street Journals reporting 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:46.200 Mars is expected to unveil a nearly thirty billion dollar 0:06:46.279 --> 0:06:49.160 deal for the food maker today. Keleanova was spun off 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:52.520 from Kellogg last year. Its brands include pop Tarts, Springles 0:06:52.520 --> 0:06:53.479 and Cheese Its. 0:06:53.600 --> 0:06:58.279 And activist investors pushing for sweeping changes at Southwest Airlines, 0:06:58.680 --> 0:07:02.680 Elliott Investment Management has nominated ten of its own candidates 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:05.359 to the board of the struggling carrier. They include the 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:09.160 former hands of Virgin West Jet and Eric Canada. Elliott 0:07:09.160 --> 0:07:12.960 has previously demanded the oulster of Southwest Airline CEO Bob Jordan, 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:18.680 and that brings us to five the wait on Wall 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:20.040 Street Time down for a look at some of the 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:23.000 other stories making news in New York and around the world. 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:26.360 For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, Good Morning, 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:29.960 Good morning John. The United Autoworkers Union has filed federal 0:07:30.040 --> 0:07:34.160 labor charges against both Donald Trump and Elon Musk. The 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:37.840 charges are tied to particular comments made during Trump's ex 0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:43.320 interview with Musk on Monday, UAW President Sean Fain, the rich. 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:45.640 Keep getting richer at the expense of the working class, 0:07:45.680 --> 0:07:48.920 and people like Donald Trump and Elon Musk, they sneer 0:07:49.040 --> 0:07:51.240 at labor law, but they don't care about labor law 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:53.520 because they don't care about working class people. 0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:57.480 The senior advisor for the Trump campaign released a statement saying, 0:07:57.480 --> 0:08:01.080 in part, the lawsuit is a shameless political stunt to 0:08:01.200 --> 0:08:06.280 eroad President Trump's overwhelming support among America's workers. Hunter Biden 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:09.440 is facing new criticism this morning. The New York Times 0:08:09.480 --> 0:08:12.640 reports that the president's son wrote a letter to the 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:16.480 US ambassador to Italy in twenty sixteen to seek help 0:08:16.800 --> 0:08:20.560 for a foreign business venture. Hunter Biden's lawyer called the 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:24.640 letter to the ambassador a proper request and insisted no 0:08:24.800 --> 0:08:29.480 project materialized. Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to grow to 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:33.080 a hurricane as it turns in the Caribbean. Officials in 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:37.080 Puerto Rico closed schools and open shelters. Ernesto is on 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:41.640 a path toward Bermuda deryl ingestion with the Virgin Islands 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:43.960 Territorial Emergency Management Agency. 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:47.320 The hurricane washing is being issued for US Virgin Islands 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:51.120 to Burgess, Virgia Islands vehicles and Calebra to anticipate a 0:08:51.200 --> 0:08:52.439 rapid intensification. 0:08:53.280 --> 0:08:56.800 Just days ago, Debbie passed through the area, leaving storm damage. 0:08:57.040 --> 0:08:59.520 Opening statements are expected to begin today in the murder 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:03.120 trial of a Las Vegas area politician accused of killing 0:09:03.120 --> 0:09:07.920 an investigative reporter. Prosecutors accused former Clark County Public administrator 0:09:08.000 --> 0:09:12.360 Robert Tellis of killing Las Vegas Review Journal reporter Jeff 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:16.439 Jerman in September of twenty twenty two Loyola Law School 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:19.720 professor and former federal prosecutor Lori Levinson. 0:09:20.000 --> 0:09:24.120 The allegations are at the politician. The defendant here, Robert Tellis, 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:27.440 was upset at a reporter who had said negative things 0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:30.360 about him, and in fact, that seems to have been 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:32.280 the motive alleged for this crime. 0:09:32.440 --> 0:09:37.200 Former federal prosecutor Lori Levinson. Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:40.520 was picked as the Democrat's nominee to succeed the late 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:44.319 US Representative Sheila Jackson Lee, who died last month of 0:09:44.400 --> 0:09:48.520 pancreatic cancer. Turner will be appearing on the November ballot 0:09:48.600 --> 0:09:52.520 after securing the most support from local Democratic precinct chairs. 0:09:52.840 --> 0:09:55.440 Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:58.080 want it with Bloomberg News. Now. I'm Michael Barr, and 0:09:58.120 --> 0:09:59.400 this is Bloomberg. 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:06.360 John, Michael. Yeah, it's tigned out for the Bloomberg Sports Update. 0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:09.280 An for that, we said, good warning, John stash Ewer, 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:10.160 All right, John. 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:12.840 Had the White Sox one last night. That would have 0:10:12.840 --> 0:10:15.160 been two wins and two nights after one win the 0:10:15.200 --> 0:10:16.120 previous month. 0:10:16.200 --> 0:10:16.800 Didn't happen. 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:20.160 Yankees won four to one in Chicago thanks to Nester Cortez, 0:10:20.160 --> 0:10:23.680 who through seven scoreless hittings and Juan Soto, who provided 0:10:23.679 --> 0:10:26.080 the entire Yankee offense. He was the only Yank to 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:28.560 have an extra base hit. Soto had the best home 0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:30.880 run hitting game of his career, two run shot to 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:34.040 left field thirty night solo blast also the opposite way 0:10:34.040 --> 0:10:36.200 of the Fens solo home run to right in the seventh, 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:38.400 actually had a chance in the ninth for a four 0:10:38.480 --> 0:10:40.920 home run game. He now has thirty three home runs 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:42.240 and his teammate Aaron. 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:44.959 Judge has forty two. Here's Soto on the two of. 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:47.880 Them were just coming here and tried to do large 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:50.800 jobs down with the day. You know, it's it's really 0:10:50.840 --> 0:10:53.160 impressive what we've been doing. But at the end of 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:55.160 the day, we forget about what we've done. 0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:55.439 In the past. 0:10:55.440 --> 0:10:57.760 We tried to come every day, tried to focus in 0:10:57.800 --> 0:10:59.160 that day, and tried to win games. 0:10:59.160 --> 0:11:01.160 So for us is. 0:11:01.120 --> 0:11:04.080 Really it's really good that you guys appreciate everything. 0:11:03.760 --> 0:11:04.240 That we do. 0:11:04.320 --> 0:11:07.720 But definitely we come in here every day hungry for. 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:10.960 More Yankee win. Coming after news of Jazz Chisholm's elbow 0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:13.079 injury suffered Monday night on the head first slide home. 0:11:13.120 --> 0:11:15.000 He is gonna have further test but the MRI is 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:18.000 gonna land Chisham on the injured list with surgery and option. 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:20.840 Chism has been a nice addition since the trade was Miami. 0:11:20.920 --> 0:11:23.439 The Orioles lost to Washington nine to three. The anksor 0:11:23.480 --> 0:11:24.959 back ahead of ball the More by a half game. 0:11:25.000 --> 0:11:27.840 In City Field, Oakland beat the Mets nine to four. 0:11:27.960 --> 0:11:30.439 Paul Blackburn, facing his old team, gave up sixer and 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:33.200 runs met to their last four games have an outscored 0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:36.640 thirty one to five. JJ McCarthy, the former Michigan quarterback 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:38.599 draft of the first round by Minnesota's gonna miss the 0:11:38.600 --> 0:11:40.840 start of the season due to a knee injury. Vikings 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:43.000 had already planned to have the veteran Sam Donold be 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:45.360 the week one starting to be the forty nine Ers 0:11:45.559 --> 0:11:47.720 appear closer to pulling the trigger on a trade of 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:51.240 white Out Brandon Ayuk to Pittsburgh. Terms have been agreed 0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:52.800 to and now it's just the question of if the 0:11:52.880 --> 0:11:55.200 Niners make the move. By you unhappy with his contract, 0:11:55.559 --> 0:11:58.839 wants a trade. John Stashawa Bloomberg Sports, Johnny. 0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:05.080 Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, 0:12:05.160 --> 0:12:08.040 and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the 0:12:08.120 --> 0:12:09.360 Bloomberg Business app. 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:11.559 This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:12:11.760 --> 0:12:14.080 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. On a morning of big 0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:17.960 bank earnings. UBS posted higher than expected profit in the 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:21.080 second quarter as investment banking revenue and progress in the 0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:25.240 integration of Credit Suite helped CEO Sergio or Mahdi's efforts 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:29.560 to return capital to shareholders. Sergio or Mahdi joined Bloomberg's 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:31.440 Fancy in Lanqua to talk about the results and how 0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:35.800 higher volatility could be good for client portfolios. Let's listen 0:12:35.840 --> 0:12:36.760 in for the. 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:38.199 Markets and for many investors. 0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:40.800 You know, what happened early on this month has been 0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:42.880 a week up cal away up cool right, So I 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:48.360 mean you look at the magnitude of the movements should 0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:51.000 make people think carefully about. 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:59.160 Having a proper diversification and being very total about the 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:02.560 way you invest. More so, in that sense, the fact 0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:03.480 that we have. 0:13:03.840 --> 0:13:07.880 Basically made back everything within one week or two cannot 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:12.760 be taken as a you know, temporary issues. In my 0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:16.000 point of view, one has to really think that probably 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:20.520 is a sign of some elements of fragility in the system. 0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:24.079 Does it get easier as maybe we get a FED cut, 0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:26.280 or does it get more complicated as we go to 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:27.000 the US election? 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:28.000 But look, you know. 0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:32.920 When central bank cuts, it depends how they cut and 0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:33.920 why they cut. 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:35.040 So if. 0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:39.640 You know, of course there is now a capacity probably 0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:42.679 to accommodate cuts based on lower. 0:13:42.400 --> 0:13:46.199 Inflation, but it's also you know, we need to watch. 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:48.960 Exactly also what are the underlying economic drivers. 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:52.040 And to the extent that the FED is. 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:55.960 Forced to cut more aggressively because of economic downturns, that 0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:58.240 would not really be good for the market, so we 0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:02.719 need to really watch why rates would come down and 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:07.200 how quickly they come down. In general, we do expect 0:14:08.160 --> 0:14:11.640 and we see room for a potential rate cuts in 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:15.400 the foreseable future, but I wouldn't really be in the 0:14:15.440 --> 0:14:18.559 camp of predicting that the FED will go as far 0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:19.680 as the market wants the. 0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:23.080 FED to go. 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:26.560 There's been a lot of focus on private markets. How 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:29.360 does that interplay actually change and what does it mean 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:30.280 for ubs now? 0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:31.760 The big change in client. 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:33.760 Behaviors we saw in the last twenty four months was 0:14:33.880 --> 0:14:40.720 clearly more diversification towards fixed income and so on and 0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:41.160 so forth. 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:43.680 When the rates comes down, of course, maybe part of 0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:46.640 it will go to search for higher yield in maybe 0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:49.240 in private credit, but not only. 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:52.800 But we do believe that as rates comes down, you 0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:57.840 will see also potentially people moving back to more alternative assets. 0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:00.440 And also, which is. 0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:04.480 Important to understand the ed winds we face in the industry, 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:08.680 but also at US in NII in margins on interest 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:13.239 rates will be also upset by clients taking more leverage potentially, 0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:17.480 So it depends how it plays out, It depends what 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:19.560 are the underlying economic dynamics. 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:22.640 Do you worry that there could be a systemic risk 0:15:22.640 --> 0:15:23.800 for semi systemic risks. 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:26.480 I don't think so. No, I don't think I don't 0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:29.000 see systemic risk. But volatility. 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:32.680 High volatility doesn't mean that you have systemic risks. 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:35.880 But what does it mean? High volatility means you need. 0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:38.480 To be higher volatility? I mean, to be honest, I 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:40.760 think if you look at high. 0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:44.720 Volatility can be an absolute or a relative concept. So 0:15:45.440 --> 0:15:49.840 because we have seen solo volatility in the last few quarters, 0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:52.480 you know, I do believe that we're going to see 0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:55.960 higher volatility. If this is very high and permanently, it's 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:58.160 another matter, but I do believe we're going to see 0:15:58.160 --> 0:15:58.960 more volatility. 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:00.360 So it can be quarterly results. 0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:03.520 If I don't ask you about hiring or actually job losses, 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:05.480 can you give us an update on what the next 0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:08.600 six and then twelve months will bring well you, so that. 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:11.520 You know the restructuring. 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:18.320 And fixing the elements of problems in the integration are 0:16:18.440 --> 0:16:23.920 unfortunately driving job losses. We are We took down around 0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:28.880 three thousand counties quarter, so I think that we will 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:32.560 continue to do that in order to restore the profitability 0:16:32.640 --> 0:16:34.520 UBS had before the appuisition. 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:37.840 This is Bloomberg Day. 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