618: Running Back Prospects Who Produced Like Studs

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Resa JJ zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen and this is episode six hundred and eighteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. If you listen to the show last week, then you know what today's episode is all about. Last week, I looked at a sample of stud NFL wide receivers, wide outs who have given us multiple seasons with fifteen or more PPR points per game over the last decade. I then looked at how those wide receivers did when they were in college. Because good players in the NFL, they were generally productive in college. And then I started the comparisons. I looked at players in this year's draft class, and I compared their production profiles to the stud wide receiver production profiles. That allowed me to spot some players in this year's class who produce like studs in college. We're gonna do this same thing today, but with running backs instead. Now before digging in sports fans, there's no better time than today to sign up for Fandle Fantasy For users who have yet to make a deposit on Fandle Fantasy. You can deposit today to receive two free entries. All you have to do is deposit a minimum of ten dollars into your FANDL dfs account and you'll be instantly rewarded with two free vouchers. There is a limited time offer, so be sure to deposit now and play for free. Head over to fandle dot com or download the Fandle Fantasy app today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the FANDL app for more details. Okay, so I'll do the same thing I did last week when trying to find our stud running back sample. If you look at the last handful of years, a top twenty season at the running back position is usually in the fourteen PPR point per game range. I generally tell you that we should be looking for top ten seasons rather than top twenty ones at running back, but we want a large enough sample size to work off of here. So I looked at running backs who had more than one season of fourteen PPURO points per game since twenty eleven while playing at least eight games in that season. And remember, this isn't about an exact science today's show is more of a primer than anything else, like last week's show. Now, using those filters, we get forty two running backs. But here's the thing. My prospect database includes players who either went to the combine or who were drafted, and it goes back to two thousand and six. So Austin Eckler, Fred Jackson, and Darren Sprouls were all removed from the sample. That left us with a stud running back data set of thirty nine running backs. These are the players that we're going to compare this year's draft class too. Now, similar to the wide receiver model, my running back prospect model deals with three main production metrics. There are other inputs that go into the model, and I break them all down in the Late Round Prospect Guide that launches on March fourteenth. You can pre order it right now to save a few bucks over on lateround dot com. But those three metrics are best season touchdown share, best season reception share, and best season total yards per team play. Touchdown share is the percentage of touchdowns a player had in his offense, reception share is the percentage of receptions that a player had in his offense, and total yards per team play takes a player's rushing and receiving yards and it divides it by his team's pass attempts and rush attempts. Now, within our STUD sample, the average best season touchdown share for these backs was thirty six point four percent, the average reception share was twelve point nine percent, and the average yards per team play was one point nine to seven. Those numbers have very little meaning to you right now, so let's give them some context by comparing them to this year's class. And when I say this year's class, I'm referring to the thirty six running backs were invited to the combine. Among those thirty six players, their average best season touchdown share in college was twenty eight point three percent. Remember, the STUD sample was over thirty six percent. Their best season reception share average was ten point one percent. That's almost three percentage points lower than the STUD samples average. And their best season total yards per team play averaged one point four to nine. That's significantly lower than the stud's average of one point nine to seven. Now, none of that's all that surprising, because we know that productive NFL players are typically productive in college. But let's go through each metric one by one and call out any running backs who seem to have some red flags. At the end, I'll reveal if there are any running backs in this year's class who hit on the STUD sample averages across the board. So let's start with touchdown share. Like I said, in the STUD sample, the average best season touchdown share was thirty six point four percent. In this year's draft class, eight of thirty six running backs hit that mark, So right away we're done to just eight possible running backs potentially hitting all of the STUD averages. Within that STUD sample. Of thirty nine players, only three of them had a best season touchdown share south of twenty percent. Those three were Devonte Freeman, Chris Carson, and Josh Jacobs. And since twenty eleven, of the running backs with one or more seasons with fourteen or more PPR points per game across their first three in the league, just fourteen percent of those rushers had a best season touchdown share under twenty percent. Touchdown share isn't that important of a statistic in the model, but it's still something, and one player who stands out in this year's class under that twenty percent mark is Dalvin Cook's brother, James Cook. Cook is getting some buzz, and according to NFL mock draft database dot com, he's projected to get selected around the early fourth round range. He's a top eight running back according to the site, and some have called him a top five back in this class. Part of the reason he doesn't have a very good touchdown share number is because he's just not a bruising back and Georgia didn't utilize him that way. He was never a workhorse in college. He's leaner in frame at one hundred and ninety pounds, and he's more of a receiver. This is more of a call out to say that it doesn't look like he's gonna have that high of a ceiling in fantasy football at the next level. He doesn't have that type profile more than touchdown share could have shown that though. Now another player I want to call out within this stat is Isaiah Spiller. Spiller is my RB two in this class, but there's no doubt that his best season touchdown share it's lacking at just twenty two percent thirty one of our thirty nine running backs in the stud sample, we're over that mark. Now. I don't think this is something that will sink Spiller as a prospect. He's the RB two in my model pre draft. He has good numbers outside of that one, but it's something to at least think about when you're looking at Spiller versus the other higher end running backs in this class, maybe as a tiebreaker. I think it also speaks to a greater point that I want to make on the show, and it's that this class, at least according to the stuff that I look at, it's not a very strong running back class for fantasy football. At least we don't have a ton of obvious studs at the top like we've seen in recent years. We usually don't have many red flags with a few high end running backs each season, but we're already seeing one with Isaiah Spiller. Again, it's not the worst thing in the world, but it at least sheds light to the fact that these profiles are not completely flawless. My take on the class as a whole is that there are a lot of dart throw type players that you can get in rounds two or three of your rookie draft. Finding must have guys is where it's tougher. Now, moving on, let's talk about reception share. I made a thread about this a couple of weeks ago on Twitter, and it got a little backlash, but I think people were making some assumptions about how I felt generally about a particular player, and that player being Kenneth Walker. Basically, my stance is that receiving numbers matter a lot for running backs. They get a lot of signal in my model. And it's not even the idea that a running back with good receiving numbers will then be a good receiving back in the NFL. It's more so that a running back with good receiving numbers in college it shows versatility, and versatility means that his team is trying to get him the ball in different ways, and if that's the case, that's a sign of talent. Now, in the thread about this, I mentioned the falling statistic from twenty eleven to twenty nineteen, so players who have had a shot to play three years in the league. Only two players, Jordan Howard and Chris Carson, hit fifteen or more PPR points per game in a single season from years one to three with a sub six percent best season reception share in college, so they were under the six percent reception share mark, and they're the only players in this data set to have a fifteen plus point per game season across their first three in the league. Kenneth Walker, who some have is the top running back in this year's draft class, was under that six percent mark. When comparing to our stud sample, we have three players under a six percent reception share. One of them is Chris Carson, who I just mentioned, One is Derrick Henry, who didn't hit fifteen or more PPR points until after year three, and the other is Adrian Peterson. As we know, Henry and Peterson are two of the most prolific rushers in the history of the game. Now, the pushback that I received about this Kenneth Walker thing was that Michigan State just didn't util their running backs that much as receivers. That might be the case, maybe he ends up being a workhorse at the next level. It's certainly in his range of outcomes. It's even in his range of outcomes in my model. He still has a decent score in my model pre draft. Like, let's relax for a second once again. I know that I'm not relaxed as I'm saying that, but let's chill. I'm here to spot trends and to change the way we think about odds. The draft is not a black and white thing. Of course, Kenneth Walker can still be good without a high best season reception chare. It's just that historically that number has had some significance, and if there's a red flag to his profile, then there's some reason to bump down his odds of hitting. Because here's the thing, I've heard this same logic in the past. We went through this exact same thing with Ronald Jones when he came out. I'm not saying those two running backs are comparable. I'm just saying we've heard this exact same excuse. And again, it's not to say that something absolutely can't happen. Is that we're playing odds with this stuff. And if you don't see it that way, that's totally fine. I might not be the right draft analyst for you, but I look at this stuff in terms of probability. Walker's likely still gonna be my RB three in this class when it's all said and done. He still has good marks elsewhere, and he has the right size for sure. It's not like I think that he's a bad running back, but there's no doubt in my mind that the receiving profile that it's a red flag. I just don't interpret that to mean that he's one hundred percent doomed. Now. Walker is by far the biggest name with a low reception share, but Damian Pierce is another player to call out here. His best season reception share was just seven point two percent, but a lot of trusted film people seem to like him. He's got a crazy BMI. Standing at five foot nine and weighing two hundred and twenty pounds, he does have some uniqueness to his profile. Now, a big reason his numbers weren't better was because he was never a full time back in college. Had he seen a higher backfield share, we wouldn't have these concerns. But that's the point. That's why there's correlation between production and volume and NFL success, because if a player is very good, we generally see his team given the ball a lot. Sometimes teams are very irrational, like incredibly irrational, But just because they're sometimes irrational doesn't mean that we should just ignore this data. So Pierce does have some interesting aspects to his profile, but there are obvious red flags too. Now, the last metric to look at today is best season yards per team play. The NFL stud average with this one was one point nine to seven, and among the NFL studs only Josh Jacobs and Chris Carson were under a rate of one. Damian Pierce once again doesn't get to that mark. He had a best season yards per team play rate of point eighty seven, another player with a not so great rate as a Mere White. White was another piece of that Georgia backfield with the aforementioned James Cook, but unlike Cook, White's got more prototypical stud running back size. He dealt with injury throughout college. I'm expecting him to have a really good speed score too when the combines all said and done, and that could really boost his draft capital. When we have split backfields like this, where we have multiple players who could be solid pros in one backfield in college, it's easier to forgive worst production profiles. Fortunately, the model is looking at more than just production, but it's at least something to keep in mind. I'm not saying this is close to the same situation, so don't take this the wrong way. But it wasn't long ago when we saw both Nick Chubb and Sony Michelle come out of this same Georgia backfield. And they did it the same year, just like this. Okay, now for the fun part. Let's take the three averages in the stud NFL running back sample and see if any of the running backs in this year's draft class hit those averages. There's actually only one player who emerges when we do that, and it's not Brice Hall. It's Tyler Batty out of Missouri. Baty's best season numbers are really really good. He had some production through the first three years of his college career, but his senior season in twenty twenty one was where he really took off. In the model, he has a forty six point two percent touchdown share, an eighteen point one percent reception chare, and a yards per team play rate of two point one two. This is not to say that he's the best back in the class, as I've been saying, a lot of other things go into this model than just these production metrics, and he may end up not having the right size for the model, But according to NFL Mockdraft database dot com, he's projected to go one hundred and forty six th overall in the draft, and that would lead to my model liking him a lot more than draft Capital so he's summoned to watch. Now, if I loose in the filter restrictions a little bit, some more productive backs emerge. Breise Hall is in the running to be the top back in his class. I think he is the top back in this class. He missed the STUD sample averages by just half a percentage point and best season reception share, meaning his numbers across the board are very very good. And if he gets round two draft capital, especially if it's early round two, he'll be in a good spot to be a ninety third, ninety fourth percentile prospect in my model. But keep in mind it's highly unlikely that any running back in this year's class is gonna end up being a better prospect than what we saw last year and Naji Harris, Travis y Tann, and Javonte Williams. So this running back class is not as top heavy as last year's was, but I do think it's a little bit deeper. Now I have three more running backs of the model seems to like that came close to the STUD running back thresholds. The first is Kyron Williams. Williams is another undersized back, but his fifteen percent best season reception share is really good, and while he probably won't see as good as draft capital as someone like Walker Hall or Spiller, he should have decent draft capitals. Still, he's an electric back. He's someone that you absolutely should be watching, especially for PPR formats. Now, Tyler Algier isn't that far off from Williams in my model, despite having worse projected draft capital, Algier doesn't have the size concerns that Kyroenn william has And the only reason he wasn't mentioned to someone who hit every average the stud running back sample hit is because of an eleven percent reception chare, But there's absolutely nothing wrong with that kind of reception share. My model does like Algier right now with a lot of time to go. Obviously he's over that eightieth percentile mark that I want running backs to hit. And then the last players were Shot White out of Arizona State. His best season yards per team play is two point two seven. That's a top tier number. In fact, in my data set, over forty percent of running backs who hit two point two in yards per team play, so even lower than where White's at, forty percent of those running backs ended up giving us at least one season of thirteen or more PPR points per game across their first three in the league. And here's the thing. White is currently projected to go one hundred and fifteenth overall according to NFL mock Draft database. That thirteen or more PPO points per game rate increases the forty seven percent when looking at running backs who were drafted in the top My model really likes for Shad White. I just hope an NFL team ends up liking him too. Now a lot can change between now and the draft. The NFL combine can influence not just my model at the running back position, but where these players might get drafted. It can influence draft capital, so my opinions can change here. But I at least wanted to get this primer out there so we can all be in the right mindset for draft season. I really hope that this show and last week's show on wide receivers, I hope it helped you guys. That's going to do for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. If you like this Prospect Talk again, go to lateround dot com pre order the Prospect Guide. It launches in a couple of weeks. Very very excited for it. Otherwise, I'll talk to you later in the week with the Mailbag Show.