879: Mailbag 5/3/24

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha JJ zacher reson what's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and seventy nine of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. Underdog Fantasy is the place to be this summer. Bestball Mania five drafts have already started, where there are fifteen million dollars in prizes, But there's so much more than just that. You've got pick them and champions game modes. There are different bestball contests that you can join and more. As I announced earlier this week, I've got a new show dropping soon in the podcast feed called Becoming a Best Ball bro. I'll be interviewing the smartest best ball players on the planet to get their insights that I and you can crush our best ball drafts this year. So make sure you're signed up on Underdog by heading to Underdog Fantasy dot com. You can also download the app when you sign up. Make sure to use promo code Late Round for a one hundred dollars deposit match. That's promo code Late Round also really quick. Don't forget to check out the Late Round Prospect Guide. It's all finished up, so you can go to Lateround dot com order it and get that finalized version. It'll help you out with not just your rookie drafts, but it will help you with your general understanding of this class. I think it can even help for redraft too, so check it out Lateround dot com. It's a mailbag show. Let's get to these questions. The first question this week is an email and says, hey, JJ love the show. You helped me nail last year's draft with Jaden Reid. Thanks. I was going through the Prospect Guide and got to the draft capital Delta section. Even after reading, I found myself a bit confused on where the numbers come from and how we get the low, neutral and high risk. Could you talk a little bit more about draft capital delta and what it means for high level prospects like Marvin Harrison, Junior Malik Neighbors, and Roma Donze. Thanks dev So, a couple of years ago, I decided to create a metric called draft capital Delta. I know a lot of you guys already know about this, but bear with me in podcast form. This isn't the easiest thing in the world to explain. Let's just talk wide receiver as our example, because there is draft capital delta for running backs too. There are different inputs in the wide receiver model, things like breakout score, Fantasy points score, rushing production, and teammate score. And then there's draft capital. Draft capital gets a whole lot of weight because draft capital matters. Every player in the model gets some sort of score for draft capital. I don't call it draft capital score because that's just unnecessary. But Romadonza, who went ninth overall, doesn't get a nine for his score. There's a draft capital formula where you plug in that nine number. And the reason there's a formula is because early round picks are more meaningful than late round ones. A player getting drafted first overall versus one getting picked twenty first overall, that's a twenty spot difference. That same twenty spot difference can be seen from a guy getting picked one hundred and eightieth overall to one getting picked two hundredth overall, but the twenty spot difference in the first round is much more meaningful. That's why there's a formula for draft capital. So when I get that draft capital score, that number it gets fed into a prospect's overall score, and that overall score is out of one hundred. Now I can also look at a player's draft capital and get that score out of one hundred. It's a hypothetical draft capital score. And then all I do is subtract the two to get draft capital delta. So draft capital delta is a difference between where a player was drafted his draft capital compared to his overall prospect score. It essentially tells me if his profile was worthy of being drafted at that slot. It's really showing me his profile without capital. Now here's the thing, and this is kind of hard to explain, but hopefully I do an okay job at explaining it. Like I said, later round picks, draft capital matters a lot less. Naturally, the score they get in the late rounds via draft capital is not nearly as significant as what's added to their score if they're a top ten pick. If you look at Brendan Rice versus Roma Dounza, Roma Dounza is getting a lot of love from a score perspective because he was a top ten pick. Brendan Rice was an afterthought. His draft capital portion of his prospect score is not very large. Now, think about what that means. Mathematically. That means that Brendan Rice's analytical profile, the stuff that we're always analyzing and talking about on this podcast, that now takes up a larger proportion of his overall score, and that leads to bigger fluctuations in draft capital delta for players who are drafted on Day three because at the end of the day, a top ten pick, that kind of draft capital Roma Dunze's draft capital, Malik Neighbor's draft capital, Marvin Harrison Junior's draft capital, that's taking up a very large portion of their overall prospect score because their top ten picks, they're very important players. There's a lot of signal to that. And as a result, first round wide receivers don't have these giant fluctuations in draft capital delta, but the Day three wide receivers they absolutely do, because there's a wide range of production profiles that we see on Day three, and those production profiles are making up a larger proportion of those Day three wide receivers scores. So in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three and those versions of the Prospect guid if you look, you'll see that players on Day three so players drafted on the third day in the NFL draft, they had draft capital deltas that were like plus ten and minus ten, maybe even higher. It would be rare to see that big of a delta for even a Day two pick. But also, what do those numbers even mean? That was one of the things that I asked myself before publishing this year's guide. Clearly, a positive draft capital delta is better than a negative one. If that weren't the case, then all of the metrics that I'm using in these models wouldn't matter, right, because what draft capital delta is saying is that this guy was overdrafted or underdrafted based on what all of these non draft capital factors are telling me. But what number makes them meaningful? Is a plus five draft capital delta a lot better than a plus two to one? Like, what does it all mean? How do you actually consume that number? So I crunched some numbers this offseason and I created buckets for draft capital delta instead of having these random numbers that didn't mean that much to the reader. So now, based on where a player was drafted, he then has a draft capital delta range that he has to hit in order to either have a high risk, a low risk, or a neutral profile. That means that if he has a high risk profile, his draft capital delta is really really low. It's really bad, which means he's a risky player at his draft capital because he was overdrafted. Now, most players are going to have neutral draft capital deltas, and then some players are going to have low risk ones like Troy Franklin has a low risk profile because his analytics look great and then he fell all the way to round four, so he was underdrafted according to the model, and he hit the right threshold for me to say, hey, this guy's a low risk player. Now. When it comes to the top three wide receivers in the model, Malik Nighbors did have a low risk tag to his profile. That's how good his numbers looked. But I wouldn't be concerned about those guys as it relates to draft capital delta because none of them had a high risk profile. The main reason Marvin Harrison Junior wasn't low risk is because he went forth. Overall, it's really hard to have a low risk profile when your draft capital is that high. And again that just goes to show how good Molik neighbors profile really looked in the model. Now. I hope that helps everyone make some sense of Draft capital Delta. It's just a fun additional piece to the model. A player's prospect score is still way, way more important, but Draft capital Delta does get some signal if a player has a low risk profile, he's generally going to outperform expectation a little bit better than someone who has a high risk profile. Now none of this is incorporated into a player's prospect score, but it's something to keep in mind, and I might do more work over next offseason on Draft capital Delta, but for now I'm not touching that model for a while. This test question is from the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. It's from Nelson. It says, hi, JJ, how do you think the recent influx of wide receivers is going to affect how we value the position in dynasty? And how should dynasty players to get ahead of the curve? To elaborate, it seems like every year is a great wide receiver draft class, and we can't have forty wide receiver twos. It seems like the landscape is pretty talent rich, so perhaps we should be weighing situation a little bit more when it comes to differentiating between these players. This current landscape reminds me of the tight end position, where a cluster of fine options actually means elite options are that much more valuable. Is the move to tear up at wide receiver wherever possible, since the Deontay Johnson just isn't going to be a real needle mover. Okay, this is another one where it might be a little bit tough to explain, but I'll do my best. In fantasy football, we want difference makers or needle movers, as you said in this question, at all positions, but let's just focus on running back and wide receiver here since they're the most important positions in fantasy football. If a running back's not that needle mover, then his production is relatively replaceable. Right. We see it all the time where running backs step in for an injured or running backs give us some output out of nowhere. The position outside of the higher end players is relatively replaceable because running backs can be productive without a real talent backbone. We don't have to always invest in those players to get that kind of production. Lower end RB two production, for example, it's everywhere and it's coming from everywhere. And again that's because running back basically consists of some elites and then a whole bunch of non elites who are still getting some work in their offenses. There may be a few players in between there, like a Rashad White type, but you know what I mean. Now, a wide receiver, it's a little bit more of a gradual decline. We've got guys like DK Metcalf or DJ Moore, even like a Zay Flowers. They're not elite all the time, but they can still provide a nice floor ceiling combo within fantasy where we're often starting three or more wide receivers in our lineups. So the way I view wide receiver in both redraft and in Dynasty is that there's just better baseline for value. If a running back doesn't hit, if that running back isn't giving you elite production, then that running back just isn't that valuable. Most of them, at least, like I said, you'll every once in a while get an exception where there's this low end RB one tweener. If a wide receiver doesn't hit, if he's not giving you elite production, he can still provide something of significance because wide receivers don't come from nowhere the same way that running backs do, like with an injury or something. They're not quite as replaceable, especially when you look at the game on a week to week basis. And that's because more wide receivers are on the field at once and it's a more talent driven position. They also last longer in dynasty. They hold value a little bit longer than running backs do. So, yes, wide receiver might be getting deeper, but we're still trying to take shots to find those elite players, those real difference makers. So in your rookie drafts, it's still find to go after that position and hope that you're finding the next top ten guy. If they don't pan out, they can still provide some value on your roster. If a running back doesn't pan out, even if he's getting some work in his offense, that work just isn't as valuable. There's also just more volatility to their cost, and dynasty we see that all the time. When a team adds the running back room, the existing running backs take pretty big hits. It's not quite the same at wide receiver. Now, your question asks about existing wide receivers or veteran wide receivers like a Deontay Johnson. And yes, if you're in a normal dynasty format where you're managing your lineup each week, you want as many elite players as possible. If you can package up wide receiver three type players to get an elite player, you absolutely should do that. That's still our goal. But regarding this influx of wide receiver talent, we still want to take some shots. Even if the outcome is that the player will just be clustered up with a lot of other wide receiver two and wide receiver three types, we still want to see if we can get a little bit lucky and get an elite wide receiver for a relatively low cost in a rookie draft. Now that's true at running back too, don't get me wrong. There's just more volatility to that position, which is why to me, Jonathan Brooks at this point is just the clear cut RB one in this class. Because the draft capital was a lot better than the other backs in the class, and his overall profiles a lot better. He's the one player that I think you can draft within the tier of other first round wide receivers. It's not that the other running backs are bad. There's just more volatility with them because the nice thing with wide receivers, even if that player isn't quite elite, Like if you draft Jalen Polk and he just ends up being a wide receiver three or something, he's still going to hold a lot more value than if that similar thing were to happen to someone like Marshawn Lloyd. Now that answer may have made zero sense. I feel like I'm getting super theoretical on this episode so far. So let's change that up with the next question. This one's from at JM Bellum on Twitter. It says could Keon Coleman be overvalued in fantasy? Stefan Diggs barely produced with a new offensive coordinator, so seems expecting more from a rookie wideout is overly optimistic, especially with Coleman's profile and the fact that Buffalo didn't exactly go get their guy. They traded back twice. Okay, so first off, I don't think the expectation is that Keyon Coleman's going to be Stefan Diggs. Now, you're right, Diggs didn't come through towards the tail end of last year, but he was still averaging a twenty nine percent target chair per game rate. With Joe Brady, the usage itself was a little bit different, and Diggs just didn't convert and come through, like I said, But let's not pretend like Diggs was a nobody in this offense with Joe Brady. Now, I said this to my prospect guide, but I think some of the fear with Coleman is the fit. Matt Harmon talked about this on The Wide Receiver Show just a couple of weeks back, but Coleman to him in reception perception profiled more a big slot. The Bills seem to want to use him as the X, even if he'll get thrown the slot plenty. But that could present somewhat of a problem because you've got Curtis Samuel who played the slot in Washington though he can't play outside, and then Khalil Shakir, who I think is a very capable player to play both inside outside, but the Bills have used him as a slot player so far in the NFL. Maybe that was personnel driven because they had Stefan Diggs and Gabe Davis, but that's how he's been used. The landing spot is good for any wide receiver because it's a climbable depth chart. With an elite quarterback, you can't ask for much more. The downside is it doesn't change Coleman the player. He enters the league with some red flags. I talked about those flags throughout the pre draft process. He can overcome them, but he's not as clean of a prospect as some of the guys who went in Round one. So yes, be cautious. It's totally rational to be cautious. I can't tell you if he's a good or bad redraft pick, although in post draft underdog drafts, I think he has a fine ADP, but I can't say that in rookie drafts. Right now, I think he's generally going where he should be going because a lot of the other receivers who went around him in the draft they also have red flags. That's the thing that we can't lose sight of when we're looking at an individual player like this. What's your alternative in a rookie draft? Well, your alternative is another wide receiver with a bunch of red flags. That's what this class looks like. Analytically, the NFL got it right. In my opinion, the guys that they drafted in the first round, maybe Ricky Pierson and Xavier Legetti side, but the top five wide receivers in this draft, to me analytically what my model was saying, those were definitely the top five wide receivers in this class. And there's not gonna be seventeen good wide receivers in the draft class seventeen flawless wideouts. It's just not gonna happen. So what that means is when you're looking at round too, round three guys, especially this year, there's just not many players with super clean profiles, so Keon Coleman. When looking only at Keon Coleman, yeah, there's some concerns there. There's some analytical concerns, but those concerns are going to exist for most second round, third round wide receivers, Day two wideouts. That's generally what we see. Even Jaden Reid last year, a guy that I really liked, he had plenty of analytical concerns, he was an older prospect, his production profile wasn't amazing. I just liked him a lot because of his versatility. Basically, when we draft Keon Coleman, we're not drafting Keon Coleman over someone like Romadoonza. If that's happening, if people start doing that, then yeah, I'd probably hold back a little bit. But that's just not happening right now. So to your question, could he become overvalued in fantasy? Absolutely, people love landing Spot. They over state landing Spot sometimes, and like I said, there are some concerns of his profile. He had sub sixty breakout score in the model. His ZAP model scorer placed him in a good bucket, but not a great one. Is he overvalued right now? No? I don't think so. I think there's enough good going on with this situation. And it's not like he was a horrible prospect. He's still an okay prospect. He's a good prospect, and when you look at the alternatives, they're not necessarily any better than Keon Coleman. The test questions from Twitter's from at keV says sixty eight. It says you've talked in the past about the unlikelihood of rookies producing multiple top twenty four wide receivers. Could the level of talent around Caleb Williams make him an outlier? So, as we know, CJ. Stroud had one of the best rookie quarterback seasons that we've ever seen. Last year as good of a prospect as Caleb Williams is, I don't think it's reasonable to just project what CJ. Stroud did last season. Stroud became the first rookie quarterback since at least twenty eleven to have two wide receivers finished with fourteen or more PPR points per game. That's with a minimum eight games played. Fourteen PPR points per game at wide receiver is usually like a lower end wide receiver two season, maybe into the mid wide receiver two range. Stroud then had one of his wide receivers finished with sixteen PPR points per game. That's a typical wide receiver one season. Since twenty eleven, we've seen thirty seven rookie quarterbacks hit three hundred pass attempts. In that rookie season. Eleven of those quarterbacks supported a wide receiver with fourteen or more PPR points per game, and only four of those quarterbacks support a wide receiver with sixteen or more PPR points per game. So that's a rate of about thirty percent of these quarterbacks giving you a wide receiver two eleven percent of them gave you a wide receiver one. When you look at the non rookie quarterbacks, those rates naturally change the rate of a quarterback giving you a wide receiver two season, it doubles the rate of giving you a wide receiver one season. That nearly quadruples. Now. The reason for this is twofold. Teams with rookie quarterbacks are getting less efficient passing. That's one of the reasons. But teams with rookie quarterbacks are also generally not throwing it as much as teams with veteran quarterbacks, and we want that volume for our wide receivers. Now, can Caleb Williams break the mold? Of course, he's one of the best prospects that we've seen during this timeframe. But when we're talking ceiling, typically the wide outs with rookie quarterbacks who really really hit, they're seeing crazy good target shairs like Reggie Wayne with Andrew Luck or Keenan Allen with Justin Herbert. As long as everyone's healthy in Chicago, it's tough to imagine a world where one of those guys is seeing like a twenty eight or a twenty nine percent target chair. There's not just competition there, it's good competition, and that'll be good for Caleb Williams, but it could hurt the ceilings for each of those wide receivers in your managed leagues. The last question this week is also from Twitter. It's from at the Dynasty Oasis. It says, what are your favorite Day three players to target during the late rounds in Dynasty rookie drafts. I'll give you two players, one running back, one wide receiver. These guys are literally last round picks. I got both of them in the fifth round of a super flex draft the other day. The first is a Nias Smith. You might remember Matt Waldman to me talking about Smith when he was on Late Round Perspectives. When Waldman was on Late Round Perspectives, I didn't have a Nia Smith on the show. But he's a very fun prospect. He's sort of a running back wide receiver hybrid type player who comped pretty closely to Curtis Samuel in the ZAP model. The Eagles have a need at slot receiver and he could be a really fun yards after the catch slot guy. You let Devonte Smith and aj Brown stretch the field on the outside, and you leave things open for a tackle breaker underneath, and that tackle breaker could be a Nia Smith. He could get you some production on deeper rosters, and then if an injury occurs, his upside becomes a little bit more interesting. But one guy that I've been getting in a lot of rookie drafts is Rasheen Ali, now of the smaller school running backs. I definitely like Kamani Vadell more than Ali. I like Viadell Moore pre draft, and I like a more post draft given that landing spot in LA. But Ali is not even close to a thought in round three, round four of rookie drafts. He's probably going undrafted in a lot of years, or he's going in like the round five, round six range, if they're that deep. I don't really get it, Like, are his odds good to succeed? No, of course not. He's a Day three back who isn't stepping into an open backfield. But Derek Henry might not be in Baltimore very long. He's also old, he might not be able to stay healthy. Keaton Mitchell is coming off for horrific injury, and the other back that Ali has to beat out is just Justice Hill, who's not a huge threat. I don't think we should be overly scared of Justice Hill. At this point, Ali had a nice positive Draft Capital Delta, though he was still tagged as a neutral profile when it came to Draft Capital Delta. His breakout score was close to seventy and he had a top season reception share that was close to fourteen percent, which is really good. Now. He didn't face super tough competition in college because he played at Marshall, but the model cares far less about program strength at running back compared to wide receiver. He came through with a sixty two point five Zapp score. That's not bad for a Day three pick. Is it gonna amount to anything? I mean, the guy isn't even a lock to make his own team, But to me, this is the right kind of dark to throw. When you combine situation and talent profile. You're using a last round pick on him. You're probably getting him off the waiver wire in your dynasty league. But I think it's a logical choice to make. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by stretching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found. You know, to follow me on Twitter at late round QB. Thanks for listening everyone, Enjoy your weekend and I'll talk to you next week.