1001: Mailbag - The Browns Backfield, Isiah Pacheco, and More

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zafera j J zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachary Sin in this episode one thousand and one of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. Football season's right around the corner, and there's no better way to lock in your fantasy dominance early than with Best Ball on DraftKings, where you draft once and ride your roster all season long. And right now, DraftKings giving all customers a can't miss offer. Draft one, get one and turn line up in the fifteen million dollars Best Ball contest for just twenty dollars, and you'll score another Best Ball ticket to play free for a share of that fifteen million, giving you a second shot to win big. It's easy. Just draft your dream team once, no weekly management required, and let your top scorers automatically start each week across the whole season. 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Help is available for problem gambling call eight eight eight seventy eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org eighteen plus and most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply void where prohibited. One per customer answer the best Ball fifteen million dollars headliner contest by nine four to twenty five to get one bonus entry twenty dollars entry free. Required. Reward expires in thirty days. See terms of DraftKings dot com. Slash NFL dash Best dash Ball sponsored by DK now. Let's get to these mailbag questions. The first questions from Twitter is from the first man Underscore Adam and says, do you use sports books when researching player stats and projections, specifically for over underlines or projections. No, I don't. There was a great comment about this exact topic this week by establishing the runs, Adam Levitan, and he's exactly right, and I'm just gonna read it because he articulated it really well. It was a quote tweet about Rashi Rice and Juwan Jennings prop lines, and this was before all the news broke with Rashi Rice. But he said, seeing a bunch of these posts, think people should be very careful about using prop lines for fantasy. Number one, season long prop lines aren't that efficient. Limits and liquidity are very low. Number two, prop outcomes are binary. We don't get paid more if Rashe Rice goes for eighteen hundred yards. Number three. When you don't get paid on sealing outcomes, it's harder to accept the floor outcomes for Rice. There's tail risk on the knee and suspensions. Number four. Good fantasy rankings consider the full distribution of outcomes. Good prop lines are simply medians. Maybe Jennings goes for eight hundred yards fifty percent of the time and eighteen hundred yards one percent of the time, whereas Rice hits eighteen hundred yards twenty percent of the time. That's a massive difference. Number five books should be and are daring betters to bet overs on season long props due to injury and chaos outcomes skew hard to left tail Rookies guys off injury like Rashi Rice typically have far wider range of outcomes. So essentially, these lines are giving us some median outcome, when in fantasy football we're often not concerned with that median outcome. Now, I remove part of this question that was from Patreon because it names someone else in the fantasy industry, and I'm not here to disagree with someone else's take who can't defend it. But the player in question was Jared Goff, and the question alluded to Goth having really good season long prop lines compared to other quarters and then how that made him undervalued in fantasy. But this is exactly what I've been saying about Goth and why you can fall into this trap of thinking that he's of value and fantasy football we shouldn't be concerned about median outcomes at quarterback. Quarterback is the most replaceable position in the game. Now, it's hard to match the elite guys at the position, but you can get streamers each and every week and put together a low end QB one performance by points per game. And I know this factually because I've been doing that and tracking the results of my other podcast, Living the Stream. I've been doing that for the last ten years. Low end QB one production is replaceable in ninety nine percent of leagues out there, maybe ninety eight percent, which means I don't care that Jared Goff might finishes the QB ten after being drafted as the QB eleven. He's literally been a top six quarterback in his career zero times. He's never scored twenty points per game. He's never been a serious difference making player, and this is not the scene where I want to bet on that changing. He's coming off the high touchdown rate season, so his cost is higher. He lost his offensive coordinator the Lions. They have more question marks on the offensive line they did before. As a fantasy analyst, my job is to not tell you who's going to simply meet expectation because that doesn't win fantasy leagues, like a lot of my fades this year, a lot of the players I'm not aggressively drafting, they're guys who I fully understand can meet their ADP expectation, like Brian Robinson and Jared Goff. But I don't think, given Robinson's receiving upside, that he's gonna be something that I'm upset about passing on. Same with Jared Goff and what he can do because he doesn't run the ball. Now, I could be wrong, Any of my predictions could be wrong, but that's where my analysis points to. And with quarterback it's even easier to make those adjustments and assumptions because they're arguably the most solved position in fantasy football. And we know that if we miss out on someone who ends up as the QB nine the QB ten, our fantasy season is far from over. It's far from ruined. Just know that these prop lines are not the types of lines that we should be worried about in season long fantasy football. We should be far more concerned about the ceiling outcomes for these players throughout most of our draft, not the median ones. Now, maybe you could argue that They're more important for some of the early round picks, but definitely not past that point in your draft. The best question is also from Patroon. It's from bro Filio. It says, Hey, jj, I just re listened to episode seven eighty seven because I want to revisit your take on handcuffing. Has your perspective changed it all since then? I'm curious, especially given a few backfields this year like Atlanta, that would seem to raise the question again, at least for me. Would love to hear your thoughts. On a related note, I've also been wondering is there such a thing as handcuffing wide receivers or should there be? For example, what do you think about the idea of handcuffing Pukainakua with Devontae Adams or Jamar Chase with T Higgins. I think the term handcuffing just needs to be thrown out at this point, and I've said this for years. Everyone has a different definition of what it means, Like is David Montgomery a handcuff to Jamir Gibbs, is Tajy Spears, a Tony Pollard handcuff? Is Jalen Warren a handcuff to Caleb Johnson, I'd argue as strong no. In all of those cases. Handcuffs, to me are players who have zero value without an injury, and generally speaking, they're not the kind of end of bench players that I'm drafting in season long. They're the kind of players that I'm picking up as the season goes on because i want flexibility on my bench to start the season when there's a lot of chaos going on, when we're learning about what might happen in that given season. When you draft handcuffs, they're often one of the first players to get dropped by your team because you can't assume that the player you're handcuffing gets hurt in the first couple of weeks of the season. Not only that, but handcuffs are not not sure things. Everyone makes these assumptions that like, Will Shipley's gonna be the starter in Philadelphia and see this massive workload if Saquon Barkley gets hurt. And while I'd rather take Shipley than aj Dillon, it's not a one hundred percent fact that Shipley would see this massive workload In my season long league, I'd rather take a shot on players in more ambiguous backfields more ambiguous situations who could overcome and be usable even without an injury. This is why we talk about contingent upside so much more than we used to, because there are a ton of split backfields out there and some players of standalone value even with a good starter in front of them, like David Montgomery, But then they have that contingent injury upside if their backfield teammate gets hurt. And as far as the wide receivers go, I mean some players would get an obvious spike if their team's wide receiver one got hurt, like Davonte Adams and Pookinakua. Yeah, if Pokin a Coupa is not in the picture, Davonte Adams is a full blown obvious wide receiver one. But you also spending a lot of draft equity just to handcuff that player. You're putting a lot of eggs in that basket, which you can do, but you don't have to do. But like last year we saw Davante Smith had a target chair per game rate that was almost ten percentage points higher when he played without either aj Brown or Dallas Goddard. But those players, they're highly unlikely to be found in the later rounds if that makes sense, right, We're talking about DeVante Adams and Davonte Smith. Both of those guys are really freaking good at football. But on the contingent upside front, yes, you should absolutely consider that in your evaluation of players. It's one of the reasons I think Adams is undervalued in season long drafts. But I don't draft handcuffs. I'll add them as the season goes on. The last question from Twitter's from at footy Talks zero zero one zero. It says, how are you reacting to a potential suspension of Quinn Shawn Judkins? Do Samson and Ford climb draft board substantially? Which of these backs reap the benefit? And even if they do, will they be worth drafting at a higher price. Well, my reaction to the Judkins situation is that it's just really unfortunate, and I hope justice is properly served. This is the worst part about my job. There's no right time to talk about this kind of thing. But I also need to react to news because it is my job. So strictly from a football perspective, let's dig into this. Remember, Quinn Shawn Judkins does not have a contract right now, so who knows what the Browns plans are with him, and who knows what happens with that case. What we do know is that Dylan Sampson's room Ford are behind him on the depth chart, hypothetically speaking. Now, there's been some talk about Samson being a pass catcher for Cleveland. The coaching staff has talked about that this offseason. It's a little bit hard for me to believe because he didn't do a whole lot of that in college. To me, Samson was a little bit overvalued as a prospect, just a little bit. He wasn't terrible by any means, but he was slightly undersized, and he didn't have a great pass catching profile, actually pretty good between the tackles, and he has burst and he actually is a good short yardage back despite his size. So like maybe I thought he was a little bit overvalued, but he's not something that I would avoid totally. I thought Judkins was a better prospect when you layer on draft capital, but you guys know that I had questions about Quinn Shawn Judkins too. Samson had some interesting comps. One was Devonte Freeman, who had his high upside moments in fantasy and he had a really close comp to Ronnie Hillman. Rest in Peace Ronnie Hillman, and that was one of my favorite comps for him. But Hillman had some moments of usability as well. I just worry about Samson being like a huge upside piece. So where we're at, I think if Judkins is not in the picture in this hypothetical, we'd see Samson and Ford split that backfield. Samson would obviously have more intrigue because of the unknown, and I think he could be a fifteen touch player in the league, but my fear would be negative game scripts. I think they're gonna use Jerome four, the veteran in those environments, and he's been a pass catcher in the past, so I think they might use Ford regardless of Judkins being in or out. And it's projected to be a bad team and a bad offense which could lean forward more often than we'd like. But I would still rank Sampson ahead. I just wouldn't be surprised if the result would be that Ford was the better value, if that makes sense. And this is all hypothetical right now, because we have no idea what's gonna happen with this Quinn show. Judkins situation. This as questions from David. It says, Hi, JJ, longtime listener, tons of love for what you do. Thanks David. Apologies if you've touched on this before. But how do you approach team building in heavy tight end premium leagues if you don't have one of Bowers, McBride or Kittle, especially if you're a borderline contender in a shallower league with less teams ten or less. You touch on the tight end dead zone and one of your recent episodes now targeting good offenses and or teams where the tight end is the second target. Would you say this is a strategy worth leaning into in a shallower league or is a better idea to retool for the future. So to be clear, the tight end dead Zone episode was purely about season long leagues. It's not about Dynasty leagues, and this question, the way it's worded makes me think that you're referring to Dynasty. But I do still want to talk about this idea of the tight end dead zone for really any format, because with Dynasty, you're still playing fantasy football within this singular twenty twenty five season, so it still applies to some degree. I actually think this is a spot where you can lean into the tight end dead zone idea even more when there's tight end premium leagues. When there's a tight end premium format, it's not to say that the standard mid range tight end one players won't see a bit of a bump in value, given they're getting an extra half point per reception, but oftentimes it almost becomes like the running back dead zone where teams are so excited to get this rare piece, which is a true elite tight end, and they boost up players who probably don't deserve to get boosted up, which makes the elite tight ends actually more valuable selections in the end because the next tier of tight ends are going earlier than they should. Now, what that means for you is that you should still likely go with a go big or just wait on the tight end position strategy. And since this question, it's saying that if you don't get one of the big three tight ends and Bowers, McBride or Kittle, there are some guys that I do like in that tight end dead zone range, like Evan Ingram, Tucker Craft. Those are two names that come to mind, but you run the risk of those players going far earlier in your draft. In a tight end premium format, and when that happens, the opportunity costs in selecting one of those players it rises pretty dramatically. Meanwhile, while some of those later round tight ends they're going to rise in ADP two, the rise is still going to be in a zone in your draft where there's not a significant opportunity cost. So without digging into the details of this kind of thing and just being high level with this, I wouldn't let half a point per reception totally change my approach. Like volume, at the end of the day, it ties to every statistic and Fantasy football touchdowns, receptions, yards, it's driven by volume. You're gonna have outlier touchdown seasons and all that. But I just mean if a tight end is gonna be good in a normal league, then he's probably gonna be good in tight end premium and vice versa. Generally speaking, like if Breton Strange is a breakout tight end, he's probably gonna be a breakout tight end and tight end premium too. It doesn't change that general idea and equation, and it may make going with late round tight ends, maybe getting an extra one to cover your bases and improve your chances of hitting, but it might make those late round tight ends even more appetizing. As the middle round tight ends, their prices rise and they rise to a point in your draft where the opportunity cost is really significant. So hopefully that makes sense and can be applied to both your season long and your dynasty leagues. It's not super mathematical, and maybe I'll do a tight end premium breakdown next offseason. It's just too late for that right now. But for now you at least have some tools to react properly to both types of formats and drafts. The last question this week is from Joey on Patreon. It says, is there a chance everyone is undervaluing Isaiah Pachecko? The injury experts predicted reduced performance with return from injury. Before the injury, he was a workhorse our Kareem Hunt, Berchard Smith likely to cut into his workloads significantly. As an average joe a running back and a great offense who has shown capability of a three down workload, going in the middle rounds seems like a buye. So I think Jacob Sanderson put it best on last week's Perspectives episode. Isaiah Pachecko is probably more of a classic dead zone running back, but we're not paying that price tag anymore for him. Like realistically, Pachecko is in completely the kind of running back that we want to target out of the middle rounds. This is year four for him. He's not necessarily being pulled down by eightp because of uncertainty of skill set. He's never had a ten t t percent target share per game rate in a single NFL season. He's never really been a massive plus as a receiver. But this kind of running back, given the depth of the position right now and the intelligence of the average fantasy manager, this type of back would have been more like a fifth rounder just a few years ago, but he's not now now. It's true that Pachecko was looking good before his injury last year, and I remember vividly doctor Jeff Mueller coming on Late Round Perspectives and me asking him about Pachecko. It was in the middle of last season. It was around the time that people were thinking about adding Pachecko back to their roster when he was coming back from that injury, and Jeff was really adamant about the fact that he just wouldn't be the same running back when he came back from injury, and Jeff was completely right. Now that also makes me feel a lot better about his injury being one of the main reasons for his down numbers during the second half of last year. He also was just failing the eye test. But Pachecko did have really strong target share numbers to start last year, with games of an eleven and a half percent share and then a twenty two point seven percent one I think, though funny enough given how he started last year. That's where my biggest hesitation is with him this year. I've talked about yards prorout run being a predictor for running back target share. He's never been special within that statistic, And if Burshard Smith really does come on, I do think there's a chance that he steals some receiving work from Isaiah Pacheco. And that's given Smith's a converted receiver who kind of profiles as a player who can play a role like that in the NFL, maybe in like a Jeric McKinnon kind of way. So I'm okay with drafting Pacheco. I'm actually slightly above market, but I don't think he's totally egregiously priced. His workload to start last year just doesn't seem super sustainable in hindsight, and Kansas City should just have more pass catching weapons in general this year, even with the Rashi Rice suspension, and that can lead to a lower target share for Pacheco in that backfield, and that's my worry. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You know to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Make sure you're checking out the Late Round Draft Guide. You can find that over on lateround dot com. Subscribe to the newsletter as well. It's absolutely free. Thanks for listening, everyone, greatly appreciate it. Enjoy your weekend and I'll talk to you next week.