604: Week 17 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha j Jake Zacher reson.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone, It's JJ zacharieson the editor in chief at fandle and at Number five dot com in this episode six hundred and four of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's sleeper show is probably a below average one. We got nothing from DeVante Parker, Justin Fields, and Gabriel Davis didn't even play. Cole Comet and c Jo'sama were mediocre streamers, and the defensive streamers didn't do a whole lot either, And then there was some a JP Ryan who.

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Speaker 1: Didn't do anything.

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Speaker 2: With Joe Mixon being healthy, Aman Ross Saint Brown was good again though Justin Jackson balled out, Alan Lazard paid off, and even Antoine Wesley was able to score eleven PPR points. It could have been worse, but I'd like to go out on top this week before getting to the sleepers. This week, Hey sports fans, Fando is now offering an exciting twist to the beloved Same Game Parlay now introduw I've seen the Same Game Parlay plus, which allows you to combine the same game parlays across multiple games. All you have to do is head over to the Fandels Sportsbook and navigate to the same Game parlay tab of the first game that you're interested in, Select multiple bets from the first game, and then plus it up. Now you can add more bets from other same game parlay labeled games. Head over to the fandel Sportsbook today and opt into the same game Parlay plus must be twenty one years or older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia. Max bonus one thousand dollars in site credit restrictions apply see terms a sportsbo dot fanel dot com. Same Game Parlay plus available for multiple sports in all states on mobile slash web gambling problem called one hundred gambler, visit Fandle dot com slash RG and Connecticut called eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven, or visits CCPG dot org slash chat in Indiana one hundred nine with it for confidential called Michigan one hundred two seven zero seven one one seven In Tennessee called the Redline in one hundred eight nine nine seven eight nine, and West Virginia visit one hundred gambler dot net or in Arizona called one hundred next Step or texts next step to five, three, three, four to two. As usual, the first tier of players that I talk about on this show are guys who are rostered in fifty to seventy percent of Yahoo leagues. Van Jefferson's won that I want to talk about this week. His target sharers haven't been great over his last three games. He's seen targets sharers of ten percent, seven percent, and sixteen percent over this time.

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Speaker 1: But according to.

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Speaker 2: Pro Football Focus, Jefferson is running a similar number of routes as Cooper Cup and Odell Beckham. Last week, the three had almost identical routes run numbers, and over the last three he's run just too fewer routes than Cup. The Rams get the Ravens this week, and the Ravens are struggling in the secondary. They just gave up big performances to Bengals wide receivers, and the week before that, Marquez Valdez, Scantling and Devonte Adams both finished as top fifteen wide receivers against them. Even the Browns in Week fourteen had Jarvis Landry and Donovan Peoples Jones score fifteen to fourteen PPR points. Jefferson is the right type of upside play this week. The Rams shouldn't have trouble moving the ball through the air, and he's been on the field a lot despite his lower target chairs. Now, I just mentioned Jarvis Landry and I like him this week as well. He got five of ten targets for sixty five yards against the Steelers the last time we saw Cleveland and Pittsburgh play, and he's averaged a twenty five point five percent target share per game since returning from injury in Week seven. Now, he hasn't provided a super high ceiling and we should consider him more of a floor play. But Landry's played sixty percent of his snaps this year from the slot, and Pittsburgh ranks fifth and target share allowed to the slot this year, so Landry makes sense as a safe option. Daryl Williams is still available in thirty percent of Yahoo leagues. That number should change given the fact that Clyde Edwards a layer is banged up. If Cech doesn't go this weekend, Williams should see a good amount of work in a decent matchup without Cech. Earlier this year, like I mentioned on the fifteen Transaction Show, Williams averaged almost eighteen PPR points per game with a running back rush yare per game of almost seventy seven percent. That's why he needs to be rostered. And then one more player in this year that I want to shout out is Elijah Moore.

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Speaker 1: Remember him.

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Speaker 2: He's been on ir with a quad injury, but the Jets have said that they expect him back and a report on Wednesday said he's fifty to fifty to play this week, and he gets Tampa Bay. It's a team that's faced the highest pass rate in the league this season, and the Bucks are sixth and adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. There's definitely some risk with Elijah Moore, don't get me wrong, But if you need high upside, more is in play because keep in mind he was averaging over twenty pper points per game over his five games before his injury. Taysom Hill works as a streamer this week. He's still within the twenty five to fifty percent roster range, despite the fact that He's finishes a QB one and five.

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Speaker 1: Of his seven career starts at quarterback.

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Speaker 2: The Saints get a beatable match up against Carolina, where they're six and a half point home favorites. According to Fandals Sportsbook. He's not my favorite streamer. He's not even really a traditional streamer given his percent roster number, but he's still a good play this week. Marquez Valdez Scantling should be back this week from the COVID list, or at least that's how things have gone for the majority of players, and the Packers get the Vikings. The Vikings ranked second and adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and the last time MVS squared off against Minnesota, he saw a thirty two percent target share en route to a twenty two point three PPR point performance. He did make a big play in that game, but Minnesota was also ninth and deep ball rate allowed, so it's not surprising, so I think you got to like his big play potential once again this week. I've only got two more players in this year just because of how the percent roster numbers sort of broke down this week, and they're both tight end streamers.

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Speaker 1: The first is Gerald Everett.

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Speaker 2: He had a big game in Week sixteen, catching four of his five targets for sixty eight yards in a touchdown. Since Russell Wilson's return from injury, Everett has a seventeen and a half percent target share per game in that Seattle offense. Now, Will Disley was out last week, but even with Disley, Evert's been running the most routes within that offense at the tight end position. And now Seattle gets Detroit. Detroit's a team that ranks tenth and adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, so he's a logical streamer.

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Speaker 1: And then the other one is Cole Comet.

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Speaker 2: He has a nineteen percent target share this season, and he's seen five or more targets in each of his last five games. That's really why you're looking his way. To be honest, the tight end position continues to be absolutely terrible, so you need to try to bank on looks, not the way the Cole Comet looks, but I mean targets. The matchup is pretty average, but Camets should give you at least something. This next tyear consists of players rostered in ten to twenty five percent of Yahoo leagues, so we're digging a little bit deeper. And this is where I want to talk about my top quarterback streaming option, Trey Lance.

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Speaker 1: As long as he goes. Of course, Lance.

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Speaker 2: Rushed sixteen times for eighty nine yards in his only start, and he still almost hit fifteen fantasy points without a touchdown. And if you recall, he was also about an inch away from scoring a rushing touchdown in that game.

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Speaker 1: Now he gets Houston.

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Speaker 2: You can say what you want about the way Houston's been defending quarterbacks, and I even talked about that on yesterday's ten Trend Show, but it's not a scary matchup, and they've been below average against the run according to Number five ors Expected Points Model. There's a reason so many analysts hype Tray Lance in the preseason. He has the tools to break fantasy football. I would expect the forty nine ers to go with a super run heavy approach this game, and that should include Lance. To me, he's a QB one this week. Look, I think there's plenty of risk in starting daaraa Goombalwalle this week. The Jaguars could utilize other running backs, which would lower Goomblewalle's eighty one percent running back rush share from week sixteen. But then on top of that, are the Jags really going to move the ball against the Patriots or move it?

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Speaker 1: Well?

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Speaker 2: Now, with that being said, a Goomblewle could still have two things going for him. Number One, he may just be the featured back. That's in his range of outcomes. It's definitely in his range of outcomes. Number Two, if this script flips to a negative one, he'd likely be the primary pass catcher for Jacksonville. That's what he's been thus far in the NFL. So I don't love him, but I do need to call him out on this show because things could hypothetically go the right way for him. I'd still only start him if I was desperate. Kadarius Tony returned in week sixteen, and he'd didn't play as a starter. He finished the day with a fifty three percent snap rate. Both Kenny Galladay and Darius Slayton played more snaps a lot more snaps. Despite this, Tony led the team with nine targets and he saw a twenty two percent target share, and according to PFF, he played seventy five percent of his snaps from the slot, which makes sense because Sterling Shepard is sidelined. I obviously don't love the quarterback situation for New York, but you've got to wonder if they just eased him back last week and they might play him more this week. If that's the case, he's got a great slot match up against Chicago. The Bears are second in target share allowed and third in yards allowed to the slot this year. Of course, he's risky. Anyone I'm talking about today has some risk, but we're talking sleepers, and Tony is definitely that. Let's talk about the Philadelphia backfield. Like I said in the fifteen Transactions episode without Miles Sanders, I prefer Jordan Howard most in that backfield, given he's played ahead of Boston Scott during the second half of the season. But I think Scott works as a sleeper regardless of Howard's status. He gets a boost if Howard doesn't go. Of course, but the Eagles ran all over Washington two weeks ago, and they continue to be a super run heavy team. They haven't finished the game with more passes than rushes since Week seven, and since.

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Speaker 1: That point in time.

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Speaker 2: From Week eight through Week sixteen, the Eagles have averaged thirty and a half running back rush attempts per game. That's two and a half more than the Colts, who rank second in the league with twenty eight running back rush attemps per game over this time, So Scott should see more work without Miles Sanders. He's at least a flex play if Jordan Howard goes, but if Howard doesn't, he's an RB two. Let's dig into the deep sleepers or players rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues you could consider starting this week. I'd say you probably shouldn't rely on these players in the championship, or I at least hope that you don't have to rely on them. But maybe you're in a super deep league. I get it, I feel you. The first guy is key Sean Vaughn. I talked about Vonn in the fifteen Transactions episode earlier this week, and the logic here is pretty simple. According to Fandal Sportsbook, Tampa Bay is a massive favorite this week. The Jets are by far the worst team in the NFL against running backs in adjusted fantasy points allowed, and while Vaughn got by this past week on a big play that resulted in a touchdown, he could see some garbage time if things go the way the betting markets don't. Really everyone on the planet thinks that it's gonna go. I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes an RB three or even a low end RB two this week. Another player I think is sneaky this week, and this is like incredibly deep considering what happened last week, but it's Tyler Johnson. Johnson didn't record a target last week, He did absolutely nothing, But Mike Evans didn't play. In Evan's spot was Cyril Grayson, who played eighty four percent of his snaps out wide. According to PFF. Tyler Johnson played way more snaps than Scottie Miller. He was the number three option. And even though Mike Evans has COVID, he may be able to go this week. So if Evans goes, I'd expect Tyler Johnson to be their slock guy. Now, if Evans doesn't go, I think you could look at Brashad Perriman. He didn't play the last two weeks because he was on the COVID list, but he'd likely take on that perimeter role, the one that Grayson played last week. So there are a lot of moving parts within this Buccaneers offense, but I'm interested in the Bucks offense because of the matchup against the Jets. I can't imagine you have to dig that deep for a championship matchup, but you never know. Braxton Barrios played the most snaps for the Jets this past week without Jamison Crowder in the picture. He was fourth the week prior, but without Crowder, Barrios was able to play sixty five percent of his snaps from the slot. He saw a thirty percent target share against the Jags this past week, and he's now seen the twenty five percent target share are better and two of his last three now at the time of this recording, is being reported that Jamison Crowder.

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Speaker 1: Is fifty to fifty this week, so if he doesn't.

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Speaker 2: Go, Barrios could see a lot of volume in a game against the Buccaneers where the Jets try to keep pace and then the last deep sleeper and we're getting deeper than Atlantis here it's Josiah Dguara. Marcedes Lewis was put on the COVID list, which could open things up a little bit for Daguara this week, but the Guar is actually getting some run regardless. He ran twenty one Rountes this past week and twenty one the week before. Maybe that sees a slight uptick if Lewis misses this game. If Lewis is out, I'd put to Gwar in a desperation streamer category. I'd much rather play a Gerald Everett type and even maybe a cj Uzama type over him, but their percent roster numbers are just a lot higher. And then as for the streaming defenses this week, as I said in the fifteen Transaction show, I really like Chicago against New York defenses against the Giants. Since Daniel Jones's season ending injury, They've averaged almost twelve standard Fantasy points per game, so they're a good play. And then if Carson Wentz doesn't go, you could look at Vegas. If he does go and you still need a defense, Cleveland works as well. That's the other defense that I talked about on Tuesday show. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I got one more show for you this week, the Mailback episode that'll drop him on