507: Mailbag 5/14/21

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zachersa j J zacher reson.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone?

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyas and the editor in chief at fandled at Number five dot com in this episode five hundred and seven of the Late Round podcast. On many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network, Oh Hey, what's up? Thanks for tuning in. I've been pretty harsh to Kadarius Tony this offseason, not that he listens to this show, but I've said negative things about his game, like how if there's one first round wide receiver bust from this class, it's likely him. But as I always say on this show, fantasy football isn't just about player evaluation. It's about what the market is saying too, And the market right now is saying that Kadarius Tony kind of sucks. He's a first round wide receiver who can be drafted in the second round of rookie drafts. Since two thousand and nine, according to My Fantasy League dot Com ADP data, only three wide receivers fit that criteria. Marquise Brown, Darius Hayward Bay, and Philip dor said. None of those guys lit or are currently lighting up the fantasy football world. But it's also a very small sample size. It just goes to show that this does not happen very often. I've pointed out in the past that Tony has a negative stat score in my model, and of the nine first round wide receiver draft picks in my model with a negative stat scorer, none of them, zero of them have been successes in fantasy football. He's also not an early declare first round pick. Non early declare first round wide receivers have done far worse in fantasy football historically than early declare ones, and it makes sense if a player is declaring early, that's a sign that he's very talented. There's analytical mark after analytical mark as to why Tony won't pan out in the NFL or at least in fantasy football. But guess what, I've drafted him in multiple rookie drafts because player evaluation is not absolutely everything. Do I think Tony is this awesome bet? No, I've said that many times in the show. But I do think we have to recognize that it's not impossible for him to hit, not even close.

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Speaker 2: At least with Tony, you have a.

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Speaker 1: Narrative that you can tell yourself as to why his profile looks the way that it looks. He was a high school quarterback and doesn't have that much experience at all playing wide receiver, and he's.

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Speaker 2: Really really athletic.

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Speaker 1: If he develops more and that athleticism translates, then boom, you've got to hit. My argument against that, of course, is that it's just an excuse. It is an excuse, but you're making excuses for most players in the back half of the second round of rookie drafts this year. Anyway you want to draft Amen Ross Saint Brown over him, I can absolutely see the argument and wouldn't fault anyone for going for Saint Brown over Canarius Tony. But don't pretend that day three wide receivers hit at a very high rate. Amari Rodgers. Well, we've got the whole Aaron Rodgers situation going down, and Rogers has almost an identical stat score. In my mind is Kadarius Tony. It's all like he's a locked in stud either.

00:03:04
Speaker 2: The truth is, once you get past.

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Speaker 1: That good tier of wide receivers with the Moors and Rashat Bateman and Terres Marshall and once Trey Sermon and Michael Carter and maybe Diami Brown are off the board. You're at a complete dead spot in rookie drafts. And you could argue that dead spot hits even before those running backs and d'ami Brown, because they're not close to flawless prospects either. I don't even think Tony would be considered an outlier if he hits like, yeah, he'd buck the trend. But the trend exists in my eyes, at least within a fairly small sample. And it's not like my model spits back a prospects score that just reads avoided all costs, all of the inputs of my model looks at, spits out a score and Kadarius Tony's score is still in the ninetieth percentile. Now that's a pretty bad score for a first round wide receiver, don't get me wrong. But it's not like Tony is complete trash who absolutely positively has no upside. But he's almost being treated that way. And if that's the way that you're looking at this, if you're looking at this from the perspective that he absolutely positively has zero upside, I think you're doing it wrong. Straight up, it's never good practice to simply fade no matter what, we should have a process that shows us which players we think will be good and which players we think won't be good. And that process, if you're looking at it analytically like I am, it says that Tony doesn't have as high of a chance to work out as someone like Rashad Bateman or Elijah Moore. But the actual act of fading needs more context than that. You have to know what the market is saying, and right now, the market is also down on Kadarius Tony, very down on him. And since other players going around him in drafts have just as many red flags, if not more, That's why I have some Kadarius Tony when I expected to have zero play the market, not the player. Before we get into the questions this week, because this is a mailbag show, I want to let you know that Fandal is offering a special selection of MLB contests. Play in the Daily MLB Hot Streak Eligible contest from May tenth to May twenty first to build your streak and win daily cash prizes. Have at least one lineup finish in the top fifty percent of the daily contest, and your streak continues if one of your lineups is not finished in the top fifty percent, it ends and you can start a new one the next day. Build the longest streak for a chance of the fifteen thousand dollars grand prize. Start your winning streak today with Fandel. Head over to Fandel dot com slash MLB hyphen hot hyphen streak for more information. Eligibility restrictions apply. The first question this week is from twitters from at It's That Boys seventy five thoughts on Miles Sanders after the addition of carry On Johnson. I think the team still believes in Sanders and he will be a primal point in the offense. I don't think Howard and Johnson will make the team. I see the move more for competition, and I can see multiple backs being involved, so I would actually think that one of those guys makes the team. But I don't see carry on Johnson as this massive map threat to Miles Sanders. Maybe Johnson's body is healthier and better than it was last year, but Johnson couldn't get run last year for Detroit despite there being opportunity for him to get that run. A thirty five year old Adrian Peterson out attempt to carry on Johnson by over one hundred rushes. What does that tell you? And this idea that's out there that Miles Sanders didn't get a good workload last year is just so so false. He didn't pan out as well as we hoped for, but so much of that stem from the team itself, not his workload and an injury. But Philadelphia was twenty third in the NFL in touchdowns, they were twenty eighth and yards per team play, and they had poor offensive line play.

00:06:40
Speaker 2: When Sanders was active.

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Speaker 1: Last year, he saw seventy nine percent of Philadelphia's running back rushes and about a twelve point four percent target share per game. Those are both really good numbers. It's fine if you're skeptical about how this new coaching regime is going to utilize Miles Sanders. I happen to think that Sanders is really talented and that's going to elevate his snap's place. But if you're not into the ambiguity with this new regime, that's fine. I just wouldn't take the Johnson signing as a huge ding for Sanders, though it obviously doesn't help Miles Sanders. This last questions from at Dino game Theory what are the odds that any of these backs become truly fantasy viable this season? And then he lists all the San Francisco running backs like Raheem Moster, Jeff Wilson, to Michael Hasty, Wayne Gallman, Trey Sermon, and Elijah Mitchell. So, first off, the forty nine ers aren't going to hold all these running backs into the season, and we have to assume that Trey Sermon is a lock to make the roster, and it wouldn't surprise me if Elijah Mitchell made it too. Mitchell is really really interesting here. If you look at his profile, it's very much like the other forty nine er running backs who have had big moments in this Kyle Shanahan offense. He's a little undersized to two hundred and one pounds, and his college production profile wasn't anything special. It's really average, but he's got a ton of speed. He ran a sub four four forty at his pro day. He actually comps really well to both Raheem Mostered and Matt Brida. My money is still on Trey Sermon in this backfield, though I said as much on the Ranking Show earlier this week. But San Francisco traded up to get him, and that's a good sign for a bump in year one work. I do expect this mostly to be a committee this season, though, if Sermon's ADP doesn't get out of control, then I can see him being a target in an ambiguous backfield. But yeah, the odds probably aren't super high that just one of these backs becomes truly viable. But I also think it looks a lot worse right now than it's actually gonna look when the season starts, because the running back room won't be nearly this crowded. This last question is an email from alec. It says, Hey, JJ, how does Atlanta passing on a quarterback and going with Kyle Pitts affect Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley's expectations for next season. I'm sure Pitts could take a few targets away from those guys, but I mean more from a standpoint of them committing to Matt Ryan for another year. Should we expect another year of being top five in pass attempts? Wouldn't you want receivers from a team like that? Or should we maybe avoid them if a better option is available because of the question marks around Matt Ryan and the new coaching staff thanks love the show, So them passing on a quarterback means that they're at least content with Matt Ryan in the short term, and that makes sense because they're really not ready to PLoP that quarterback in who's on a rookie contract to start competing. You want to have some semblance of a strong foundation from a team building perspective before optimizing a quarterback's rookie deal. In my opinion, now, how Kyle Pitts affects Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley from a fantasy perspective is that both Ridley and Julio, as long as Julio's a Falcon, they'll be fine. There's not a whole lot of depth of pass catcher for Atlanta, so the target share projections for Ridley and Jones didn't change a whole lot when Atlanta drafted Pits. It may hurt their touchdown equity a little bit, but I wouldn't be concerned about it because adding Pits means that both wide receivers and the offense in general should be more efficient. As for the question about the team being pass heavy, I would say to try not to associate quarterbacks with pass rates because they have Matt Ryan.

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Speaker 2: That's not the.

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Speaker 1: Main reason or the sole reason that Atlanta will continue to throw the ball at a high rate. Atlanta's defense sucks. There should be negative game scripts, and the Falcons are in a position where it's most advantageous to throw the ball given their weapons, given their personnel, and for those reasons gamescript in personnel, Atlanta should still be pass heavy even under this new regime where Arthur Smith didn't lead a pass heavy offense in Tennessee, It's just logical to project the Falcons to be a pass heavy offense. So I like the pass catchers there a lot As a result. This ask questions from at mister Sportsman sixty nine. Seemingly, Tebo's role will be multi dimensional. Do you believe he's a late round startable tight end since recently the tight end landscape is barren past the first three or four guys. Now, look, I had to keep a Tim Tebow question on this show because it was the biggest storyline in the NFL this week. But no, I would not be adding Tim Tebow. Maybe he surprises us all, maybe he shocks the world, but I have a hard time believing a quarterback who's been out of the game for nine years can come and make a fantasy football impact right away, even if the tight end position sucks, even if Jacksonville doesn't really have tight ends, there are just better darts to throw because the cost here is not zero. Adding Tim Tebow doesn't cost you nothing. It costs you a roster spot, and I would rather have someone else in my roster than Tim Tebow.

00:11:32
Speaker 2: The sas question is from at Starchucker.

00:11:34
Speaker 1: Mac Jones's fantasy upside is it capped at the Cousins slash car level? Is that worth a late first round super flex pick? So I do think that mac Jones likely has capped upside, at least compared to other quarterbacks in this class, because he's not as mobile as other quarterbacks in this class are. In the bottom line, in today's fantasy football world, you need that mobility to consistently give QB one seasons. There will be years where a quarterback may have an inflated touch rate and provide that strong season, but consistency is key here. Doing it year in and year out is what's key. I do think there's a chance that Jones is a little bit more mobile than we expect. But from a projecting standpoint, yeah, there's a cap ceiling.

00:12:14
Speaker 2: I wouldn't put it at.

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Speaker 1: Cousins or car though, because he can still hit better than they did, at least better than Derek carr has. I would just view him like other pocket passers from a production standpoint, Stafford, Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan. Those guys have given us spike seasons and have still been valuable in super flex leause despite having cap seasons compared to like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen or Kyler Murray.

00:12:37
Speaker 2: So I think mac.

00:12:38
Speaker 1: Jones makes sense in the late first or early second round of super flex drafts. I'm not super super high on him as a prospect, but quarterback evaluation is tough, and having a young, steady.

00:12:48
Speaker 2: Passer is valuable in that format.

00:12:53
Speaker 1: This does questions from at dingle Sheep, what are your thoughts around the current situations for second year wide receivers who disappointed in year one and then wide receivers are listed in this question, like Michael Pittman, Jalen Reger, Denzel Mims, Jerry Judy, Brian Edwards, Henry Rugs.

00:13:07
Speaker 2: The only guy on that list who really does it for me this year is Jerry Judy.

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Speaker 1: I talked about Pittman last week and how I like him as a player, but I'm worried about how past friendly that offense is gonna be. Jalen Reger didn't come through as much as I would have liked as a rookie despite his injury. Even when you consider the injury, Mims now has more competition and might not be the best wide receiver on that team. In fact, I think Elijah Moore is better. He was a way better prospect, and then Edwards and Ruggs are both dart throws. At this point, there's a lot of evidence that points to bad or mediocre rookie seasons not voting well for wide receivers and running backs. We can be a little bit more lenient with wide receivers, but Judy just stands out among this group, like very easily. He finished last year with eight hundred and fifty two yards on one hundred and thirteen targets.

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Speaker 2: He was sixth in.

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Speaker 1: The entire NFL in air yards. I know Cortland Sutton is back, and I love Courtland Sutton, but Judy had really strong peripherals last year As a rookie, and you combine that with the fact that he was a good prospect with strong draft capital, and it's easy to buy Jerry Judy right now. The best question is from at only Fantasy FB. One thing has always confused me. Everyone says, draft running backs with early rookie picks, But wouldn't you be better off drafting wide receivers because their careers are longer than when the rest of your roster is set you go in on running back. I don't think you absolutely need a draft running backs with early rookie picks at all. It's just that you're going to get more immediate production from those selections, and the running back position is more important in fantasy football. If you have an elite running back, you're gaining the biggest edge you can find in the game. But as I talked about with my research earlier in the off season on how rookies appreciate in value, first round wide receivers and rookie drafts are actually pretty decent bets from the standpoint of appreciating value. They may not provide the same edge, or at least compared to running backs just in general, but wide outs to me, are still good building blocks. I generally still build my dynasty rosters through wide receivers as a foundation. Like, if I'm rebuilding, I'm trying to find wide receivers because I always like to have that currency, and then when I'm ready to compete, I'll snag the running backs. So I think that you're thinking about this the same way that I do. It's just that people are saying those things with the assumption that you're trying to win right now. Probably the last question this week is from at evan Fantasy. What bit of game theory knowledge helps managers improve their process more than any other? Start thinking in a more probability driven way because your league mates aren't, at least not as much as they should. I seriously mean this, like, actually assign probabilities to certain events happening, and you'll start to realize where values exist because values are based off of how your league mats are valuing players, not just you. And if they think in a more black and white way, which is how ninety five percent of fantasy managers, then you're gonna have an edge. A good example of how I've used this to my advantage is with Mike Davis. Now I felt about in pre draft. Everyone just made the assumption that Atlanta was going to draft a workhorse running back in the draft, but there was always a chance that they didn't, and the chance that they didn't was probably bigger than people were realizing, since there were basically three, maybe four running backs who could step in right away and be a workhorse. Meanwhile, there were more than three or four teams that were in the market for one of those running backs. That's why I said what I said about Davis on this show before the draft, that I didn't necessarily expect this to happen, but I expected it to happen more than my league mates did. So he was sort of a by candidate as a result, and if you bought him, you've gained value from before the draft. It's very easy to fall in the trap of making what I call black and white moves in your head, where you say, no way this thing happens, when we know there's a lot more gray area to that thing happening. If you've noticed, this is how I approach my analysis, this is how I talk about things on this podcast. Some people honestly view it as me having sort of a cop out when things don't go my way. But that's not it at all. It's because to me, this is how you should think, this is how you win in fantasy football. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got to subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by streting forward pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening this week everyone, I really appreciate it. Hope you enjoy your weekend