Trump-Harris Neck and Neck; Markets Move on Latest Polls

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:09.760 --> 0:00:11.520 Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. 0:00:11.440 --> 0:00:14.680 And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. 0:00:14.880 --> 0:00:17.800 Karen, we begin with the presidential race. This is the 0:00:17.840 --> 0:00:21.320 final full day of campaigning for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. 0:00:21.520 --> 0:00:24.159 The polls continue to point to a photo finish, and 0:00:24.280 --> 0:00:27.480 both candidates are campaigning like they know it. The former 0:00:27.520 --> 0:00:31.680 president held rallies yesterday in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. 0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:34.600 In mac and Georgia last night, he urged his supporters 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:35.920 to get out and vote. 0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:38.800 We stand on the verge of the four greatest years 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:42.640 in American history. You watch, it's going to be so good. 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:45.720 It's going to be so much fun. It'll be nasty 0:00:45.760 --> 0:00:48.000 a little bit at times, and maybe at the beginning 0:00:48.000 --> 0:00:49.920 in particular, but it's going to be something. 0:00:50.200 --> 0:00:53.560 Earlier in Lidditz, Pennsylvania, Trump suggested he shouldn't have left 0:00:53.560 --> 0:00:56.080 the White House in twenty twenty, and he raised eyebrows 0:00:56.080 --> 0:00:59.600 with a long riff about the bulletproof glass surrounding him. 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:04.480 And I have this piece of glass here, but all 0:01:04.560 --> 0:01:06.800 we have really over here is the fake news, bro. 0:01:12.360 --> 0:01:16.680 And to get me somebody would have to shoot through 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:22.600 the fake news, and I don't mind that so much. 0:01:23.240 --> 0:01:25.520 The Trump campaign later put out a statement saying the 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:28.200 media should have a protective glass shield around them. 0:01:28.280 --> 0:01:32.319 Also, meanwhile, Nathan Kamala Harris is putting her focus on 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:35.400 black voters in the final stretch. The Vice president visited 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:38.920 the Greater Emmanuel Institutional Church of God in Detroit before 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:41.440 visiting a couple of black owned businesses in the area. 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:44.880 Church in just two days, we have the power to 0:01:45.000 --> 0:01:49.200 decide the fate of our nation for generations to come. 0:01:49.560 --> 0:01:52.960 Kamala Harris also revealed that she submitted an absentee ballot 0:01:53.040 --> 0:01:55.520 to her home state of California, but she declined to 0:01:55.560 --> 0:01:58.000 say how she voted on a ballot measure that would 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:01.480 put harsher penalties on repeat rug or theft defenders. 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:04.000 I am not going to talk about the vote on 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:07.560 that because honestly, it's the Sunday before the election and 0:02:07.600 --> 0:02:11.239 I don't intend to create an endorsement one way or 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:12.040 another around it. 0:02:12.400 --> 0:02:15.080 Later today, Kamala Harris will wrap up her campaign with 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:18.520 a pair of star studied rallies in Pennsylvania. Katie Perry 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:20.959 will lead the line up in Pittsburgh, while Lady Gaga 0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:24.600 will headline a Harris event in Philadelphia. Donald Trump will 0:02:24.600 --> 0:02:27.600 hold his final campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, the 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:30.760 same place he did it in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. 0:02:30.919 --> 0:02:33.400 Well, Karen, there are some encouraging signs for Harris, with 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:36.680 the final poll from ABC News and ipso's giving her 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:40.079 a forty nine to forty six percent edge nationally, while 0:02:40.160 --> 0:02:43.520 New York Times Siana College survey shows Harris ahead in 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:46.400 five of seven swing states. We get more on this 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:49.799 late flurry of polling from Bloomberg's Jill deesis. 0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:53.400 This remains essentially a coin flip. Yes, there's some good 0:02:53.400 --> 0:02:57.160 polling news for Kamala Harris, certainly in this final weekend 0:02:57.280 --> 0:02:59.880 of the campaign, but you know, let's tick a close 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:02.160 look at what that's actually telling us. So, first of all, yes, 0:03:02.240 --> 0:03:05.040 she's got an edge in these national polls, but I 0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:08.280 wouldn't really give you know, an absolute ton of weight 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:10.760 to what that may tell us about the popular votes. 0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:13.800 I mean, very famously, you know, I mean, Democrats have 0:03:14.000 --> 0:03:16.320 won the popular vote in the past but lost that 0:03:16.360 --> 0:03:20.320 crucial electoral college vote, you know, obviously, including in twenty 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:23.120 sixteen where that happened with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:26.840 so really it's important to look at those critical battleground states. 0:03:26.960 --> 0:03:29.240 In Bloomberg's Jill Liesis also says a poll from the 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:31.840 Des Moines Register shows Harris with a forty seven to 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:35.120 forty four percent lead in Iowa. That's a state Trump 0:03:35.200 --> 0:03:37.520 is won in each of his prior elections. 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:41.120 Well as Harrison Trump make their final case to voters, Nathan, 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:44.760 the finance industry is gaming out the implications of historically 0:03:44.840 --> 0:03:48.680 close race I could dramatically swing policy. Begin more from 0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:52.000 Bloomberg's Markets reporter Valerie Title in London. 0:03:51.960 --> 0:03:55.080 JP Morgan said that they planned to increase staffing in 0:03:55.120 --> 0:03:58.480 Europe and Asia to handle the big surge in overnight 0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:01.280 volume they could see from clients. To handle that volatility, 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:03.960 Goldman even said that they plan on having its sales 0:04:03.960 --> 0:04:06.760 and trading teams on site in New York well into 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:09.600 the night. Other banks are preparing staff to log in 0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:12.400 from home if they need to, and even one major 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:15.680 investment bank said they're halting all technology updates this week 0:04:15.720 --> 0:04:18.640 because they don't want any glitches when it comes to 0:04:18.720 --> 0:04:22.720 their trading systems during those crucial trading hours. And then 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:25.400 We've even heard colloquially from hedge fund managers here in 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:27.680 London saying they're flying to the US this week to 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:29.640 trade it. They want to be closer to the ground, 0:04:29.640 --> 0:04:31.919 closer to their strategist and economists in the US. 0:04:32.320 --> 0:04:35.360 And Bloomberry's Valery Titel reports some traders say it's more 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:38.200 important to know what happens in Congress than who wins 0:04:38.200 --> 0:04:42.120 the presidency. A divided legislature often translates to commerce markets 0:04:42.120 --> 0:04:44.960 because it limits the potential for big policy changes. 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:48.240 I Meanwhile, Karen Judy Diamond, the prominent political donor and 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:51.719 the wife of JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond, canvas 0:04:51.800 --> 0:04:54.839 voters in Michigan over the weekend in support of Kamala 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:59.080 Harris's presidential bit. The chief executive officer of the biggest 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:03.120 US bank, has declined to endorse either candidate, publicly pledging 0:05:03.160 --> 0:05:06.240 that he would work with whoever's elected. Axio says that 0:05:06.600 --> 0:05:09.839 Judy Diamond, who is a longtime donor to Democratic candidates 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:12.520 and an education advocate, has donated two hundred and fifty 0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:15.720 thousand dollars to Harris and the Democratic National Committee. 0:05:15.960 --> 0:05:18.520 Well Nathan to Some polls show a shift to Harris. 0:05:18.600 --> 0:05:21.400 We're seeing some immediate reaction in the markets, and we 0:05:21.440 --> 0:05:24.000 get the latest with Bloomberg's John Tucker, John, what are 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:24.440 you looking at? 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:27.240 Yeah, Karen. The so called Trump trade unwinding to a 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:30.360 degree that favored higher treasure yields and a stronger dollar. 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:33.800 The dollar gauge and the tenure treasurys both had reached 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:37.040 their highest since July. In recent weeks, investors ramped up 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:40.159 wagers on a second term for Trump. There was concern 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:43.080 that his support for looser fiscal policy and Steve Tariff's 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:47.480 would deepen the federal deficit and fuel inflation. Well, this morning, 0:05:47.720 --> 0:05:50.520 the dollar is lower, dollar dx WHI right now down 0:05:50.600 --> 0:05:54.919 half a percent, Treasury yields are lower, Bitcoin dropping below 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:59.120 sixty nine thousand dollars, and Trump Media and technology shares 0:05:59.279 --> 0:06:03.000 right now in pre market they are a down five percent. 0:06:03.480 --> 0:06:07.000 In the prediction markets, Trump spread over Harris is vanishing. 0:06:07.360 --> 0:06:09.960 They have reversed the Trump trade and now think the 0:06:10.040 --> 0:06:13.360 election is a toss up. Carol Kong, a strategist and 0:06:13.400 --> 0:06:15.920 Commonwealth Bank of Australia, puts it this way. This morning, 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:19.360 markets are pricing in a higher chance of a Harris win. 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:22.320 Now in New York. I'm John Tucker Bloomberg Radio. 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:24.520 All right, John, thank you, and join us for complete 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:27.880 coverage of the election results tomorrow night, kicking off at 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:30.800 five pm Eastern with a special two hour edition of 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:34.279 Balance of Power, followed by Coast to coast Bloomberg Team 0:06:34.320 --> 0:06:38.400 coverage at seven. Get live election results and analysis with 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:42.120 contexts tomorrow night on Bloomberg Radio and Television and the 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:44.240 Bloomberg Podcasts YouTube channel. 0:06:44.640 --> 0:06:46.880 Well, Nathan, we're also watching oil It's on the rise 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:49.479 this morning as tensions escalate again in the Middle East. 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:51.960 The Wall Street Journal is reporting Iran is planning a 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:56.320 counter attack on Israel, involving more powerful warheads and other weapons. 0:06:56.560 --> 0:06:59.120 West Texas Intermediate up two point nine percent of a 0:06:59.160 --> 0:07:01.840 dollar ninety nine. It's seventy one dollars forty eight cents 0:07:01.839 --> 0:07:05.120 of barrel. Brent is also moving higher. It's up more 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:07.520 than two and a half percent at seventy five dollars 0:07:07.520 --> 0:07:13.000 three cents. Time now for a look at some of 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:15.320 the other stories making news in New York and around 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:18.400 the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:19.480 Good morning, Good. 0:07:19.240 --> 0:07:23.160 Morning, Karen. The music world has lost a titan, Quincy Jones. 0:07:27.640 --> 0:07:32.239 Jones's legacy range from producing Michael Jackson's historic Thriller album 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:36.160 to writing prize winning film and TV scores. He also 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:39.720 collaborated with Frank Sinatra, Ray Charles, and hundreds of other 0:07:39.760 --> 0:07:44.400 recording artists. Jones won twenty eight Grammys during his career. 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:47.600 Quincy Jones died at his home in Los Angeles at 0:07:47.640 --> 0:07:51.200 age ninety one. More than two thirds of Americans say 0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:55.440 they feel stressed out or frustrated about tomorrow's presidential election. 0:07:56.000 --> 0:08:00.880 Psychiatrist Sue Varma says people should tread, care for, and 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:03.920 be very intentional if they planned to discuss. 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:06.400 The election, what is the point of my conversation? Am 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:08.320 I trying to change their mind? Am I capable of 0:08:08.400 --> 0:08:10.480 changing their mind? How does that affect the outcome? And 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:12.600 what do I want? Do I want to preserve a 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:15.000 relationship with this person? And if that's the case, how 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:15.760 do I back off? 0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:20.760 Psychiatrist Sue Varmer also says limit the conversations about really 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:24.000 heated topics that some people are never going to see. 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:27.840 Ey and eye. A crowd of enraged flood survivors belt 0:08:27.880 --> 0:08:31.200 at the Spanish Royal couple with mud and rocks during 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:34.120 their first visit to the center of the nation's deadliest 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:38.840 natural disaster in living memory. Officials rushed Prime Minister Pedro 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:42.360 Sanchez from the scene soon after his contingent started to 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:45.480 walk the mud covered streets. Police had to step in, 0:08:45.679 --> 0:08:49.040 with some officers on horseback keeping back several dozen people. 0:08:49.440 --> 0:08:51.600 At least two hundred and seventeen people have died from 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:56.160 the storms. Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt declared an emergency for 0:08:56.240 --> 0:09:00.079 six counties affected by multiple tornadoes. About one hundred home 0:09:00.160 --> 0:09:04.240 have been damaged statewide, and around thirty thousand households have 0:09:04.600 --> 0:09:07.800 no power. Governor Stet said that they are making sure 0:09:07.880 --> 0:09:11.520 polling stations are set up for tomorrow's voting Tuesday. 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:14.800 For the polling stations, we're prioritizing making sure those are 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:19.280 all up. We'll advise, will advise the public if there's 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:21.360 any issue there with the polling stations, and kind of 0:09:21.400 --> 0:09:23.160 re route people if we need to if that comes. 0:09:23.559 --> 0:09:26.600 Governor stiad also warn residence to look out for more 0:09:26.679 --> 0:09:29.680 dangerous weather. Finally, Space Sex is about to launch a 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:32.480 cargo ship to the International Space Station from the Kennedy 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:35.920 Space Center and One of the experiments it carries is 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:39.960 an unusual satellite. It's made of wood. The four inch 0:09:40.080 --> 0:09:43.079 qube made of magnolia, was built by researchers at Hyota 0:09:43.160 --> 0:09:46.800 University and a Japanese logging company. It could mean more 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:51.560 environmentally friendly satellite since wood burns up in the atmosphere 0:09:51.600 --> 0:09:54.640 when the orbit decays. Global News twenty four hours a 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:57.280 day and whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News. Now, 0:09:57.400 --> 0:10:00.439 I'm Michael Bron. This is Bloomberg Karen uncle. 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:07.480 Bar, thank you time now for the Bloomberg Scores update, 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:11.800 brought to you by Tri State Oudie. Here's John Stanshawer, John. 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:14.000 All right here the Washington Commanders, but a big story 0:10:14.080 --> 0:10:16.719 first half the NFL season. New owner, new coach, new 0:10:16.800 --> 0:10:19.440 quarterback of the Commanders are seven to two, first time 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:22.320 since nineteen ninety six, two wins over the Giants. In 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:25.400 those two wins, they've only punted a total of two times, 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:28.120 never trailed. That MetLife the Giants twenty seven to twenty two. 0:10:28.200 --> 0:10:31.400 The rookie QB Jayden Daniels two touchdown passes to Terry 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:33.040 McLaurin one at the end of the first half. But 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:35.320 Washington was pretty much playing for a field goal, but 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:39.199 suddenly got into the end zone. The Giants coach Brian Dables. 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:42.760 Tough game, competitive game in the end, just didn't make 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:45.800 enough plays to get the outcome we want. You know, 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:49.200 gave up some big plays there right before the two 0:10:49.240 --> 0:10:52.160 minute at the end of the half, and those are 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:54.160 our game changing plays that we need to we need 0:10:54.200 --> 0:10:54.439 to make. 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:57.480 Dabeles record the last season and a half eight and eighteen. 0:10:57.559 --> 0:10:59.720 No team in the NFL right now is a worse 0:11:00.280 --> 0:11:02.360 than the two and seven Giants. They're the only team 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:04.199 that still hasn't won a home game. Game of the 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:07.160 Day was in Buffalo Bill's and Dolphins, four league changes, 0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:10.000 looking like overtime until Buffalo lined up for a last 0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:11.000 second field. 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:14.600 Goal sap Pie Ferguson hull of Pie Martin Kickpie pass 0:11:14.720 --> 0:11:15.840 is long enough. 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:24.120 It is Good's away for Tyler pass who Dotzi Trucks 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:27.520 sixty one w g R good time with the longest 0:11:27.520 --> 0:11:29.960 field goal and Bill's history. Buffalo's got a four game 0:11:30.040 --> 0:11:32.280 lead in the AFC East. Detroit sit the top the 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:34.680 NFC at seven and one. Lions one at Green Bay 0:11:34.960 --> 0:11:38.040 twenty four to fourteen, Philadelphia six and two. Four straight wins. 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:40.840 Eagles got another big game from Saquon Barkley in a 0:11:40.920 --> 0:11:43.560 twenty eight twenty three win over Jacksonville. Patriots lost in 0:11:43.600 --> 0:11:46.439 overtime at Tennessee Matt Nay at the Garden Rangers with 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:48.880 the Islanders five to two paragals for our Timmy Peneren, 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:51.679 thirty five saves for Igor saysterk and Nets lost at 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:54.040 home to Detroit one oh six ninety two. Knicks played 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:56.760 tonight in Houston. Odd Be Naji first ever from the 0:11:56.840 --> 0:11:59.520 Netherlands to win the New York Marathon. Sila Chipcari of 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:01.760 Kenya the women's winner. She had never run a marathon 0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:05.719 until last year. John dash Eway Bloomberg Sports Cannony. 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:12.120 Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Syrias XM, 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:15.120 and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the 0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:16.400 Bloomberg Business app. 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:18.480 This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:21.000 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. It is the last full 0:12:21.080 --> 0:12:23.800 day of a presidential campaign that has seen more twists 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:26.560 and turns than most Americans have ever witnessed, and in 0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:29.719 these final hours, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are 0:12:29.720 --> 0:12:30.880 claiming the upper hand. 0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:34.760 On Tuesday, just go out and vote and we're going 0:12:34.840 --> 0:12:37.040 to close this thing out and it's going to be 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:38.560 party time. 0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:42.680 We have momentum. It is on our side, can you 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:43.319 feel it? 0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:48.040 And joining us now this day before election day is 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:53.319 Lindsay Newman, geopolitical risk expert and columnist at G zero Media. Lindsey, 0:12:53.400 --> 0:12:56.920 Good Morning Market seemed to be sensing a momentum shift 0:12:56.920 --> 0:12:59.640 in this race toward Kamala Harris. Where do you see 0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:01.000 the momentum at this point? 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:04.400 Thanks, Nathan. It's really interesting. So if you look at 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:06.880 the polling data, it would suggest that the momentum shift 0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:09.679 is moving actually towards Donald Trump. Right, he has now 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:13.000 erased her lead in aggregate national polling that she held 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:16.040 essentially since something into the race in July. Each of 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:18.360 the major swing states is now a toss up and 0:13:18.360 --> 0:13:20.560 have traded back and forth in recent weeks. But as 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:25.320 you say, betting markets have now dramatically shifted away from 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:29.920 Trump towards Harris. What's behind that? As sort of anybody's game, 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:33.920 anybody's guests, I should say there are some other interesting 0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:36.760 indications we can talk about early voting. We see that 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:39.959 Democrats have a slight edge on who's voting more often 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:44.400 ahead of the election, so perhaps that moving the betting markets. 0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:48.720 Women are voting more than men. That is something that 0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:51.800 the Harris campaign sees is favorable to her election, So 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:53.800 maybe that's moving it. And then I'll throw one last 0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:56.440 in just to tie in for the sports page. There's 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:59.160 the Commander's rule that if the Washington Commanders win the 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:01.520 last home game before the election, which they did, the 0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:04.400 incumbent likely wins the next election. So maybe that's what's 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:05.400 moving the betting markets. 0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:08.360 Of course, the incumbent is out in this race officially, 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:11.640 with President Biden dropping out back in July. But how 0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:14.840 much stock to put in this Des Moines Register poll. 0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:17.200 It seems to be getting so much market attention with 0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:20.800 Harris three points ahead in Iowa. 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:23.240 Yeah, what's remarkable about that is not just that headline 0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:25.480 about the three points, which in and of itself is remarkable, 0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:28.040 but it's who's voting, right, So it's women turning out 0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:30.920 for Harris, and that, as I said, is her belief. 0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:32.800 You know, that's what her campaign believes to be her 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:35.920 pathway to victory. Her whole campaign has been about turning 0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:40.480 the page, fighting for democracy, fighting for your freedoms, including 0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:43.360 of course reproductive rights. Trump, on the other hand, thinks 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:46.040 that he's going to win through young male voters. They 0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:50.200 have not yet turned out in early voting. But again 0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:53.600 we've seen about seventy five to seventy eight million have 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:56.320 already voted. We're going to say double that number actually 0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:58.920 turn out tomorrow. So we don't want to you know, 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.000 this sort of moment is the moment where we read 0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:03.120 the tea leaves on the early voting, but when we 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:05.440 have the final numbers is really you know, when the 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:07.040 trend lines will be able to be detected. 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:10.280 In this final stretch, lindsay, we've seen the rhetoric really 0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:13.920 heat up, particularly from former President Trump, raising doubts once 0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:20.720 again about the election integrity, even suggesting that he wouldn't 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:24.880 mind if members of the media get shot. What is 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:30.280 the risk that we could see violence after election day tomorrow? 0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:33.240 So it is a big concern about what happens between 0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:36.120 election day tomorrow and the days just after, what happens 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:39.080 between election day tomorrow and when the election is certified 0:15:39.480 --> 0:15:42.280 and inauguration day. I think the most volatile outcome that 0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:44.120 we need to be keeping our eye on is if 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:47.120 Kamala Harris wins by a small margin of victory. You know, 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:50.440 last week at his msg rallied Trump said that we 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:53.320 need to defeat Harris. He needs to defeat Harris by 0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:56.360 a landslide that is too big to rig right, and 0:15:56.440 --> 0:15:59.200 so he's pointing towards this margin of victory. If the 0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:02.080 margin of victory is quite large, Hairs somehow pulls off 0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:04.640 this major surprise and wins by a large margin of victory, 0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:07.480 then it could deflate Trump World's balloon. But if it's 0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:09.960 just this small margin victory, we have to expect a 0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:12.520 flood of legal cases, calls for recounts. We're going to 0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:14.760 see disturbances at courthouse and government buildings. 0:16:15.240 --> 0:16:16.240 We know that there's this. 0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:19.560 Lineup for potentially even congressional challenges, and this is the 0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:22.040 hyperpolarized moment. Nathan. You know this, we know as we 0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:25.440 all know this, and so political violence cannot beogled out. 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:29.200 This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories 0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:32.320 making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:35.000 Look for us on your podcast feed by six am 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:38.440 Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. 0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:41.480 You can also listen live each morning starting at five 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:44.240 am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:47.160 in New York, Bloomberg in ninety nine to one in Washington, 0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:51.200 Bloomberg ninety two nine in Boston, and nationwide on serious 0:16:51.360 --> 0:16:53.080 XM Channel one twenty one. 0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:53.600 Plus. 0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:56.240 Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business App now 0:16:56.280 --> 0:16:58.880 with Apple CarPlay and Android Atto interfaces. 0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:02.200 And don't forget Tobscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the 0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:05.439 latest news whenever you want it in five minutes or less. 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:08.760 Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast platform to 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:12.320 stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow. 0:17:12.080 --> 0:17:14.600 And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:16.600 all the news you need to start your day right 0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:18.040 here on Bloomberg Dabray