Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Are We Going Zero RB?

00:00:00
Speaker 1: So rich, I know what these cold opens. We usually go back and forth, we have a conversation. There's no conversation today. I'm just gonna tell you a little story something that happened this morning dropping my son off at daycare. And as I drop him off every morning, he kind of gets a little upset and cries at times, which I appreciate. I'm cool with right, because that means that he loves me. Right, he doesn't want me to go, that's fine. So it usually only lasts like thirty seconds or a minute or so. And so I walk out the door, and I go to the front to where my car is parked, and his teacher usually picks him up as he's as he's being sad, and they look out the window to say bye to daddy, you know, and I wave back to them and I'm able to go, and he feels really good. Well today I go outside and I look back at the window, and there he is standing there with his teacher, and I'm sitting there waving and I'm like, yeah, goodbye, I have a great day. Well, as I'm doing that, a grandma and her grandson come walking up the sidewalk right in front of that window, and lo and behold, they think that I'm waving at them. So the Grandma is waving back, and I ever seen these people in my life, They're waving back. It was one of the most awkward moments of at least my week, but probably my month so far if you count May as well. And I got to say, Grandma, I was looking right past you the way that I'm looking right past Jared Goff in my season long leagues. This year, I'm JJ and last year I tried my hardest to become a best ball bro. I drafted over five hundred teams, I talked to some of the most successful best ball players in existence, and I admittedly had mixed results. So this year I'm going to chase that title once again. My plan is a max Enter Draftings millionaire maker, and I'm going to document all of it while talking to the brightest best ball minds on the planet. Last year, I didn't quite get there, But this year this is going to be the year where I officially become a best ball bro. This episode is sponsored by Drafts. There's no better way to lock in your fantasy dominance early than with Best Ball on DraftKings, where you draft once and ride your roster all season long, and right now Draftings giving all customers a can't miss offer. Draft one get one, Enter a lineup in the fifteen million dollar Best Ball contest for just twenty dollars, and you'll score another Best Ball ticket to play free for a share of that fifteen million, giving you a second shot to win big. It's easy. Just draft your dream team once, no weekly management required, and let your top scorers automatically start each week across the whole season. Every breakout star, every clutch play, every touchdown will count towards your quest for a share of fifteen million dollars. I'm drafting over there all the time. It's an absolute blast. So down with the DraftKings daily fantasy app now to draft a twenty dollars best ball lineup to play for a share of fifteen million dollars, and get a second ticket to play free for a share of that fifteen million. That's two chances to win big without ever setting your lineup again. Draft one Get one only on DraftKings. The crown is yours y gambling problem called one hundred gambler in New York, call eight seven seven eight Hope end Y or text hope n why to four six seven three six nine. In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org eighteen plus and most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Voidware prohibited. One per customer enter the Best Ball fifteen million dollars Headliner Contest by nine four to twenty five to get one bonus entry. Twenty dollars entry forre required reward expires in thirty days. See terms at draftings dot com. Slash NFL Dash Best Dashball sponsored by dk now Back to the show. Welcome into another episode of becoming a Best Ball bro. I'm jj Zacharieson, joined as always by Rich Ryan Rich, What's going on, Buddy?

00:03:50
Speaker 2: Doing good? Turbulent times for my New York Knickerbockers obviously flamed out against the Pacers. It was pretty much all over after that insane Halliburton shot in Game one that found all the way up to whatever floor fifty second.

00:04:03
Speaker 1: To Jim mersay and heaven is what is Yeah?

00:04:06
Speaker 2: I was gonna say it hit the top of the Empire State Building and came down. But yeah, Jim Mersey with the assist there on the day of his passing TIBs gets fired right before we hit the big red record button.

00:04:18
Speaker 1: A lot of it's gonna be an.

00:04:20
Speaker 2: Interesting summer for the Knicks as they try to figure out do they keep cat, what's the lineup look like? So getting to the conference finals is exciting, and then all of a sudden, the transactions rule the day and you just don't know what next year is going to look like.

00:04:33
Speaker 1: So I know people were confused this is a football podcast. We are going to talk about fantasy football.

00:04:38
Speaker 3: No.

00:04:38
Speaker 1: It is weird to me though, how in the NBA you'll see these coaches who have like crazy success and immediately get fired, whether it's this situation with the Knicks, but you never see that. Like, in no world would an NFL head coach who gets to a conference final conference championship get fired the next year. That would never ever happen.

00:05:01
Speaker 2: It's like you say, like the Knicks, Like imagine if the Browns go to the Cottage Championship game, Like they're not axing their staff after that season.

00:05:12
Speaker 1: No, they're giving them promote. They're they're promoting and they're giving them more extensions and more money. That's why it's so crazy that this stuff happens. In the end. This isn't like an abnormal thing to happen in the NBA, right, Like, this is something that didn't Nuggets do this recently? And I guess the Bucks too did the I mean, look, I'm very casual, so I could be saying this completely incorrectly. But hasn't that been going on with.

00:05:34
Speaker 2: This Bludenholzer was canned from the Bucks who had just won a championship, and Michael Malone was canned from the Nuggets after they had just won a championship as well. Entering the postseason. That was a bit weird, But I think if you look at it as someone has taken this team as far as they can, maybe this is something that should apply to football a little bit more. Where when the Knicks were really bad, they needed someone like TIBs to come in and be an adult and get them to where they are now. But now you need someone to take them over the line.

00:06:00
Speaker 1: It's like the you know, it's like the Tony Dungee John Gruden thing, or it's you know, you could Honestly, I think that a lot of people in Pittsburgh think that it's the Mike Tomlin thing. Like, if your team is just a perennial loser, hire Mike Tomlin and you will at least get in the playoffs every year and then maybe not do anything from there. But hey, you're you're out of that. Out of that. Mike Tomlin could just be a consultant, right, he just help from team to team and then you know, never win a championship. But yeah, man, we are in another week of Best Ball drafts over on DraftKings. How are things going with you? You still draft in some Are you in some slow drafts right now? Good? Yeah?

00:06:36
Speaker 2: No, I'm I'm completely fast draft. I had this feeling last year and you and Karane confirmed it on the last episode. When it comes to focus, you you get this maximum not maximum, but a very large time limit, and you have so much time to research and make the best decision. But ultimately, what I do is I look at my team and I try to fill my team as opposed to looking at the board and looking at where value might be if someone doesn't take a player or someone needs ex player, And I just am not making optimal decisions. And I also just think the fast drafts are just more entertaining, right I have a couple yeah minutes here a half hours, so I can just sit down and fire off a draft. So I just much prefer that strategy.

00:07:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I do think that like they are you know, as I said with Koran, they are definitely better for that focus, right, Like I especially when you get in the late rounds, Like I almost dread some of the slow drafts that I'm in, Like right now, I'm maxed all of the lower entry fee, whether it's single entry or like five max whatever, I've maxed all of them, and so there haven't been new contests that have appeared in that sort of bucket. And so all of my slow drafts are now in the latter rounds for the most part. I have some that are like, you know, a round seven or so, but so many of them are like round eighteen, round nineteen, round twenty. And by that point in time, every time you open up the app and then you go when you look at that lineup, you're like, oh man, I gotta re remember where I was at in this draft after all that kind of stuff. I think that you can, like if you can just fire off as many fast drafts as you possibly can, you know, then you're in a better spot to really know what's going on, and you can get more volume in that way too, more than likely, like just like in terms of you know, like like quality volume is really what I mean by doing that. I'm gonna only do fast drafts for the million Maker, and I'm going to be starting to stream those next week. Just have some crazy stuff going on this week with my schedules, so I can't, but next week I will be live streaming those. I'm going to try to get like three, maybe even four to five live streams in a week, so like it's like every single day basically, like that's my goal. But so so being you know, on the lookout for that YouTube dot com slash at late round.

00:08:46
Speaker 2: F F dark mode bros, get your sunglasses out because the white lights come.

00:08:52
Speaker 1: Hey now. Although to be fair, to be fair, DK is all is dark and just naturally dark. It's so we don't have to we don't have to worry about light mode stuff going on and people I wouldn't know.

00:09:03
Speaker 2: I wouldn't know because I haven't even I haven't even put my toe into light mode arena, so I wouldn't even know if it's available.

00:09:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's definitely gonna be a different experience too. I mean I haven't done DraftKings, live drafts, you know on the YouTube channel. It's a you know, it's it's a different kind of experience when you're doing it in front of people and you're making sure that you know you're not you're not doing anything egregiously stupid. But at the same time, I like to be transparent with my process and how I do things, And that's another way of like just generally being transparent. I'm gonna make dumb picks, I'll make some good picks. People can yell at me, people can critique the lineup. That's all part of this game, right, That's all part of being a content creator in the space and streaming this and documenting this journey of becoming a best ball brow. It's not just for me. It's for everyone else to sort of like join in and critique and get better themselves too.

00:09:53
Speaker 2: And one part about your process as we we jump into the actual football you talked about last week with elite quarterback with pat Based on your rankings, it's really hard for me to go through a draft without getting an elite quarterback, which is fine because they all have dual threat ability when you talk about guys like Lamar and Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. But one of the issues, not issues, but one of the most interesting things you've come upon the last couple of week is quarterback later in the draft and a drop off point where if you don't got your guys, it gets a little hairy after that, Cam wore Gino Darnold area.

00:10:30
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I talked to Neil Orfield, who's the guest on today's show, about this a good bit actually in the interview, and I just think that quarterback is really weird on draftings where and Neil actually had a very similar experience. So I don't want to give away too much about what we talked about because I think that are back and forth was just really really important. But with quarterback, the elite guys definitely are intriguing. And like you said, I think my rankings and the way that I do them, which by the way, they're on Patreon, they're in the late round Fantasy Ball Patreon. I built a formula where I simply compare, you know, where my season long rankings are to where DraftKings is I merge DraftKings ADP with my season long rankings, and I build a formula to sort of way positions properly based on the DraftKings format. And so yeah, I mean, like, I'm not surprised that like a Josh Allen Jalen Hurts, you know, Lamar Jackson would look better. I think Jayden Daniels might actually be like one or two spots lower, though I actually write about this in my Draft Guy that I'm working on right now, at the quarterback position, where I actually think that I am more at this point in my career, I am more early round quarterback than the masses are, which is wild to think about. And it's crazy because I still think there's this like stance that people have that I'm a late round quarterback guy. I haven't really been that way for years now. It hasn't been that hasn't been like the go to strat. And I do like a lot of late round quarterbacks this year. But when you get the points edge that you get with the elite guys, but more importantly, the predictability edge that you get with them, Josh Allen has been a top two quarterback for like six consecutive seasons, like you just don't get that at other positions, including tight end, where tight end was that position before, and that was one of the main reasons people were drafting you know, Travis Kelcey and Rob Gronkowski so high was because of that. So I'm fine with getting the elite guys, you know, I'm not gonna be as fine getting some of the pocket passers that that that are soon after them. I'll get them late, or if I'm stacking, I'll get them in a stack. But what I found on DraftKings is that you know, once you get into like the the the oh I don't know, Jordan Love CJ. Stroud type tier, and if you pass on that tier thinking you're gonna get you know, the next one. Let's just say like Geno, you know, cam Ward or Darnold or whomever, Bryce Young, if you're waiting on that tier, you got to snatch them quick because oftentimes they just go a lot earlier than you expect, like the the delta between some of those like more established pocket passers are the guys that you feel pretty good about, like a CJ. Stroud going into the cam woar g area, which for the record, I'm not saying if any of these guys are over undervalued right now, I'm just saying that there appears to be pockets and adp but it happens fast, like it changes very very quickly. And so I think that what I've experienced is that when I'm going with a three quarterback build number one, it's sometimes difficult to know for me. And I talked to Neil about this a little bit, like when to go three quarterbacks and when not to go three quarterbacks. But then number two, sometimes I get caught and I'm like, oh, man, I forgot to get a guy out of that Geno tier. And now I'm stuck with one of the Giants quarterbacks or Aaron Rodgers and just throwing a dart and hoping that Aaron Rodgers ends up signing with Pittsburgh. I'm stuck with one of these quarterbacks, or I just pass on them because I don't want to waste a roster spot on Jackson Dart and I just roll with Bo Nix and Gino Smith or something, or you know, like I like these guys where you get one really really solid quarterback one kind of questionable one, and do you just roll with that, right or you know, I had one draft where I drafted Kyler Murray and Drake May and to me, on paper, I think I'm okay with just those two, right, But then you hear about how frequently people are drafting three quarterbacks and how it's it's a pretty op type way of drafting, and so I just, you know, I question whether I should be going three quarterback or not. So definitely hit the comments on YouTube and talk about how you're kind of approaching the quarterback position, because right now I feel okay about how how I've approached it. Like I'm getting the guys that I want. I'm getting a lot of the elite guys, you know, I'll get like Fields and Kyler and some of those rushing profiles. But also in best Ball, the rushing profile is probably inflated a little bit. It doesn't matter and what I mean by that it doesn't doesn't matter as much because you still do get weekly ceiling from pocket passers, especially when you're not trying to predict them. Like that's part of the the allure of the of the rushing quarterback, right But so so like I feel okay with how I've approached quarterback. It's just a matter of like really nailing that down, that roster construction down and really feeling good about, you know, getting a guy in that like Bryce Young tier as opposed to waiting and getting kind of screwed with your QB three and it being Russell Wilson.

00:15:09
Speaker 2: To me, logically, the fragility of having two quarterbacks correlates pretty well in the scenarios where you are taking early quarterback because we're not just betting on those guys being elite in week seventeen. When we take those guys early, we're betting on them being elite throughout the entire season. So I'm okay marrying that again with the fragility of only having two quarterbacks and assuming the risk that comes with injury throughout the season because we've already put our chips in the middle of this guy is going to be a bell cow on our team at the position. So I think that correlation is fine. It does get a little hairer once your first quarterback is maybe one of these pocket pazer types like a Patrick Mahomes or a Baker Mayfield or the illustrious Jared Goff. Once you start to drop out of that elite tier, it probably makes a lot more sense to go with a three quarterback build. And yeah, this cliff right here, the first cliff even before we get to the later one that you were discussing with the young Ward Smith area. But round ten it goes eighteen picks between Herbert and Trevor Lawrence right now, and then the next highest guy in ADP is Michael Pennix. So if you're in desperate times in that tenth eleven round and you don't get a quarterback, it's gonna get hairy real fast.

00:16:24
Speaker 1: And the problem too, is that if you're trying to extract value in drafting off of ADP and you're at like a turn or something, you often say to yourself, oh, I don't have to get this guy right here, because look at the gap from this guy to that. But all it takes is one or two teams to draft that quarterback and then you can get screwed very quickly. That's really the experience that I'm experiencing, right, is that, like you think you can wait, and then in that individual draft you can't wait. ADP says you can wait, but you know that that's not always gonna be possible. So yeah, I mean, I just I think that, and Neil echoed this in the interview. But I think that we both see that quarterback is a little bit inflated in general on DraftKings are more than we expected, and it does make elite quarterbacks look a little bit better.

00:17:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, especially when the inflation comes with those mid tier guys. Right. You know, you can only you can only inflate these elite guys so much. And like you said, they've been so consistent because they add so much with their rushing, both from a yardage and a touchdown standpoint. So when these middle tier guys get inflated, it makes it makes them so so much less valuable and drive so much more value for these elite guys. You mentioned Drake May Kyler Murray there, but it sounds like Drake May's a guy you've been targeting a bunch, regardless of what draft it is.

00:17:36
Speaker 1: I don't know my exposures right now. I think I've drafted maybe thirty thirty teams or so on DraftKings at this point, so I and they're not all done, so I haven't calculated my exposure. I don't really care about exposure to this early because it's just going to be. It's going to fluctuate a whole lot. But I'm pretty sure Drake May is on like half of my rosters. Like legitimately, I just I don't really understand the ADP when and you have so many historical trends that favor this kind of quarterback. You know, I talked about this on the Year of the Sophomore Quarterback episode that I dropped on Tuesday in the podcast feed where Drake May, Caleb Williams, Boone Nicks, JJ McCarthy, Michael Pennox, obviously, you know, Jayden Daniels. They all have, or maybe all aside from Penix, all have ADP trends that really really look good. And one of those trends for these middle round, these QB seven to QB eighteen quarterbacks is that they generally, you know, if they're if they're mobile, if they're coming off seasons that aren't high and touchdown rate, and if their second year court. Second year quarterbacks in this range have been unbelievably good against expectation. So Drake May where he's getting drafted, like he goes after you know, like a Jordan Love, for instance. We know that Jordan Love is not going to give us any of that rushing production, which is a floor thing, don't get me wrong, and look in Best Ball when it comes to quarterbacks. You know, if there's one thing that I've really realized, especially last year, it's that, of course rushing matters, but rushing is more of a floor thing than a ceiling thing for these players. And you're you're really getting your quarterbacks based on the weapons that you're drafting, not not getting the quarterbacks and then getting the weapons unless it's unless it's a late round pick like Drake May kind of is. So essentially the reason why I have a lot of Drake May is because late in the draft, you know, I, let's say I get an elite quarterback earlier, let's say I get a Kyler or something like that at Perim with Trey McBride, then I'm looking for another stack. And if I, you know, miss out on Stefan Diggs, it's not the biggest deal in the world because there's a lot of other New England pass catchers later and so I can get Drake May knowing that I'm gonna have many opportunities to get Kyle Williams, who I like, who they drafted on Day two, and get Hunter Henry, who I like who last year was tight end fifteen and is now being drafted after Mason Taylor and you know, just just tight ends that shouldn't be drafted after Hunter Henry in my opinion, in this kind of environment. And so to me, you can draft a naked Drake May and then build after that, right, Like, you don't need a weapon for May to get him, because you're gonna be able to get some of these other New England weapons later. And I think they're a good candidate to outperform or to at least perform better in touchdowns per game they did last year. So this New England stack is a stack that I've just gotten a lot because it's a really really good just kind of like emergency type stack. But to me, it's just like there's a lot of trends that point to it being favorable too.

00:20:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's so many soft landing spots if you take Drake May in the later rounds, Hunter Henry end of the fifteenth, Pop Douglas end of the sixteenth, and then the other guys are going in the nineteenth twentieth rounds, So where you might be finding yourselves like who do I take in these later rounds. If you have Drake May, it's gonna make those decisions a lot easier. And outside of fantasy, the Patriots are eight and a half win total. Juice to the over, like one of the most influential markets in all of sports is telling you that this is going to bounce back and be good at football. And we know how much offense matters in twenty twenty five, so they're telling you that there's a likelihood that this offense bounces back with Drake May healthy under center for the full season, no Jacobe Brissett, and he's gonna have an impact on the seat. Let's talk about the Jags backfield. A guy you've been talking about seems like all year in mister Bashall Tuton a guy that caught your eye, but you're spreading the love around with the other running backs as well.

00:21:28
Speaker 1: There's been a lot of discussion about the Jags backfield on Twitter this week, and folks that are in the best Ball community have been talking about it, and you know there was there were quotes by it from from Liam Cohen this week about Travis Etn in particular, and how they can get him out in space and use him that way. To me. You know, I think that base shall Tutan has the most upside of this backfield, but it's more so based on like ambiguity and such. And if you look at history and you know, look, I've been talking about ambiguous backfields for how long now, and now.

00:21:58
Speaker 2: The first person that evert tweeted actually looked this up and I showed it to JJ last year. The first human on planet Earth to hit send after typing out and big us backfield was JJ Backers.

00:22:11
Speaker 1: Which honestly might be a bigger deal for my career than the late round quarterback strategy.

00:22:16
Speaker 2: But you're gonna always be the late round quarterback guy.

00:22:18
Speaker 1: There's no escape. Yeah, because like if you look on like like anyway, people are talking about ambiguous backfields all the time. And it was just something that i'd written. I think it was like twenty seventeen or something that I had written about it, and it's you know, just just grown and people kind of like understand and understand the concept more and more, which is great. Like I'm not sitting here trying to take credit for it. I'm trying to spread the word and it's great that it's out there and people use it as a reaction to conversation and things to say. But with those ambiguous backfields, I think that a lot of people assume that the younger player, you know, the more ambiguous player, is the one that you should be targeting in these backfields. And I'm I haven't researched this enough this year or re researched it this year, but I believe in my historical analysis with the ambiguous backfields, that hasn't really been the case so much. I mean it has been more so than not, but it's like, you know, more of like a sixty forty type situation as opposed to like, you know, ninety ten, and like you gotta get the younger player. So yeah, I'm spreading it around because I could see scenarios where they do use Travis etn more than what people are projecting, where base Shall Tutin doesn't really do much in year one. I could see a scenario where he base Shall Tuton is like the clear cut go to guy in that backfield. I see scenarios where TENK Bigsby's a goal line guy and he gives you spiked weeks. So I'm spreading it out in the Jags backfield, I probably have more Tuton than Etn than Bigsby, But I have all three of them because this is an ambiguous backfield. It's an up and coming offense that we should be investing in given that coaching change, and I think all three of these backs can at least bring something to the table, So I'm gonna invest in all three. They have multiple injury outs. I like the Jags in general, so I'm gonna I'm gonna go that route.

00:23:59
Speaker 2: I'm gonna say the word one more time. It doesn't get more ambiguous than this. Etn at one twenty, Tooton at one twenty nine, and Bigsby at one point fifty. And Yeah, I think the most optimal route here is to just spread your chips around like it's a roulette table, because I think the only wrong opinion is having a definitive opinion that one of these dudes is going to be the dude.

00:24:21
Speaker 1: The thing that I like to think about, too, that I really learned last year through doing this exercise is think about how the market will shift right as we get into training camp and as we hear more coach speak and stuff, and how they're going to deploy these running backs. There's a very real chance. And in July one of these guys really emerges and people like coaches are saying like, oh yeah, he's going to be the one A or he's gonna be the bellcoun on this offense whatever, and then he rises to I don't know, pick eighty write something like that. But in that scenario, I don't know if like Tank Bigsby's going to lower that much, even if we get some sort of clear picture. And even if we get some sort of clear picture, I don't know if et or like, I don't know if that other running back, like let's say that Tootan is the one who gets steamed up, I don't know if Etn is gonna fall that that dramatically right. It's like, in my opinion, the investment right now in the Jags backfield can probably only get better as the off season goes on. Plus there's gonna be a lot of just like Steam I think, with this Jags offense. So I'm down to just invest now because I think it's a good investment to make.

00:25:21
Speaker 2: Right, one of your bags just goes up and the other two you can just keep clicking at value because they'll drop and they'll become more valuable. But you know, you could just stop drafting the guy that gets super steamed and you'll just have him in your portfolio for later Niners pass catchers. We've got a brand new number for Ricky Piersoll, rocking the number one that he rocks down in Gainesville for the Gators. But you can't get enough George Kill last week and now the entire lot stick him in there.

00:25:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm just throwing this out there. I think the forty nine ers are still undervalued. I did that exercise where I looked at projected touchdowns per game, which I'm actually working on that formula a little bit more. I want to make it even better. But I sent an a newsletter blast out that showed some metrics that that helped me project next season touchdowns per game because touchdowns per game obviously is important. If you knew which offenses were gonna be good, then you would probably want to spend up on players in those offenses. And so with the forty nine ers, with that initial formula that was built and now used AI to help me, which was really fun. But those that that initial formula that was built, the difference between last season's touchdowns per game to this season's projected touchdowns per game. The team that increased the most was was San Francisco and no Deebo Samuel. You get better target shares for for Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle. Brandon Ayuk's is probably gonna miss some of the front half of the season. He might not even be one hundred percent throughout the season, who knows, But even if he is, it's fine, like they could they could still all eat, you know, in the scenario, and Christian McCaffrey obviously being there and being healthy too. And I think brock perty I think the whole forty nine ers offense is kind of undervalue. Like brock Purty, it's as if he's being drafted right now. Uh as if he did what he did two years ago. Last year he had over four points per game with his legs, which is a very like That is far far stickier rushing points per game than total points per game in terms of like how these guys perform against expectation. Look at rushing points per game from the previous season, not total points per game, and then look at that versus overall average draft position, and you will find more values by looking at rushing points per game in that end minus one season than total points per game. Brock Perty is a player who is not in that lower tier anymore of like strictly a pocket passer. Now maybe that changes k he reverts back Baker Mayfield. It's kind of the same deal, like Bak Baker. The reason why I'm not full fading Baker because of his touchdown rate stuff last year is because he had better rushing numbers last year, So there is gonna be more stability, I think with his production. And they obviously drafted to Mecha Buka too.

00:27:52
Speaker 2: Might have a guy wide open on every single yeah right right, He's got the best weapons, yeah, yeah, arguably the best weapons in football.

00:27:59
Speaker 1: And so but like this is why I keep railing against like Jared Goff and stuff, And like a guy like Goff is totally different in Best Ball, where he's gonna have spiked weeks and you're really just trying to create the best, the most optimal roster based on who else is on that roster and stacking and stuff. So it's fine to get Goff in Best Ball. I'm not really like so so against him in Best Ball because like I said earlier, I'm gonna draft quarterbacks based on my weapons, but like, there are going to be quarterbacks that I just generally like more than where they're being drafted, and one of them is Brock Party. You know, one of them is Drake May. It's just weird that it seems like people were just completely forgetting that Brock Party actually had some mobility last year.

00:28:35
Speaker 2: And you're not alone. Since last week, both Juwan Jennings Anderkeeperer still have crept up five spots.

00:28:41
Speaker 1: Yeah.

00:28:42
Speaker 2: I think I maybe when people realize, oh wait, it's still Kyle Shana and it's still a benigners, it's still an offense that's going to be very explosive throughout the season, we might see continued trend in that direction.

00:28:53
Speaker 1: Yeah. And for the record, I like Juwan Jennings too. I wrote a newsletter blast on Tuesday, and I've mentioned Piersoll, but you could just interchange that with Juwan Jennings. It's the same kind of deal, the same kind of idea you want to invest in this offense. That's my general take. All Right, We got to talk about our guest Neil Orfield. I talked to him earlier today, had a great conversation He's a DFS player who's won the Millie in the past, He's had multiple six figure wins. He's been very good as a DFS player. He transitioned a little bit more to the best ball world. He's been a finalist in multiple flagship best ball contests around the industry. He's a great streamer over on YouTube. We talked about his approach to DraftKings versus other platforms, stacking running back in twenty twenty five. He had some good zero RB takes, talked about a lot of stuff. So Neil I asked this to Pat Kurane last week when he came on becoming a best Ball bro because I think it's really important. A lot of people play on half PPR platforms, and Best Ball DraftKings is a full PPR platform. What kind of strategy shifts to you employed you see generally going from one of those platforms over to Draftings.

00:30:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's funny because I think the obvious answer is the best answer, which is you just target players who are going to get more targets, Like you just want to you just want to draft players who are going to see a lot of targets. But like in general, people are going to be targeting those players anyway, anybody who can project for one hundred ten targets is going to be taken early in drafts regardless. So yeah, that's the best answer, and that is honestly true. Like I do a lot more zero ORB when there is on a full PPR site because I just want to target the players who are going to get a lot of targets. But beyond that, I also think generally to two types of players that I target more on full PPR sites are receivers on offenses that are bad that are not going to score a lot are more valuable because like, Okay, the team is not going to score a lot of touchdowns, but somebody's still going to be targeted a lot. So like the effect of PPR mutes to touchdown value to some extent, Like obviously a touchdown is still very valuable, but a full PPR site does mute that a little bit. So receivers that are going to be targeted heavily on bad offenses I think are still really valuable and more valuable on full PPR sites than half PPR sites because yeah, they might not score as many touchdowns as you want because the offense is just not going to score as much, but if the PPR volume is there, they can still have a lot of value, and usually those are players they can get later. Like you don't really usually have to target players on bad offenses really early in the draft. You can take them kind of as flyers later on. And then the second knowing thing that I that I do a lot of is pass catching running backs, and primarily like like it's obvious guys like Christian McCaffrey, you know, the p John Robinson, guys that go in the first round, Like they're going in the first round. Sure everybody wants them, but I also think that there are players like Justice Hill becomes a lot more valuable on DraftKings, Austin Eckler, Julia mcloffin, Like, there are some players that like I wouldn't even consider on Underdog or on any half PPR site, that on a full PPR site like DraftKings, they become a lot more valuable to me because those are generally going to be shorter targets that they're pretty likely to catch them. So even if you know it's a running back who isn't a big part of his offense, he's maybe only going to be targeted forty five times in the year, but like he's going to catch a majority of those because they're going to be shorter targets and a lot of the time they're also going to be condensed, which is kind of what you want in best ball. You want your your players scoring to be condensed. You don't want them to score six points every game. You want them to score zero points one game and then twelve points the next game. I mean, for just as kind of an example, you want the scoring to be condensed, and that kind of happens with those third down, two minute drill type running backs. They can just rack up points in a hurry. So I target a lot of those types of players, the third down running back, the pass catching running back who is not like the the you know, first and second down back. And yeah, those are the two prototyl that I think I target the most on DraftKings relative tappypr sites.

00:33:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's interesting because in a season long managed league, when it comes to a guy like Justice Hill, he's not always going to be the most predictable, especially because Baltimore is generally a decent team and all that, and so like, you don't know when those two minut drills are going to hit, when they're in a negative game script and all that. But in bestball, you don't have to predict that, Like that's the beauty of best ball, right. So I guess my question then is, because of those kind of archetype of running backs, does that make you want to go more zero RB in this environment than it would in a half PPR environment. Yeah.

00:33:36
Speaker 3: Absolutely, I'm I'm a pretty big proponent of zero RB anyway, And actually this year I'm doing a lot more like hero RB. And I think I just got a bit too hard last year by doing zero RB and everything going terribly for me last year. But yeah, I do do a ton of zero and hero RB where I'm not taking more than like one running back in the first eight rounds and I'm definitely more comfortable with that on draftkins and elsewhere, and just take several shots on players late that are you know. Yeah, like you say, it's unpredictable when they're going to get the scoring, but hope, you know, you take a few of them, you kind of hope that they line up well where you're getting some kind of production every week with those players. Yeah, I'm definitely I think that's probably my primary approach on draftings. It's maybe my primary approach everywhere, but especially on draftings. It's really tough for me to take a running back in the first round, maybe starting kind of like the one two turn. I'm more comfortable starting to take running backs, but I kind of need a follower to take a running back in the first round on draftings.

00:34:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, and also, I mean, obviously with full PPR and at least the research that I've done for season long and such, you know, obviously it can be different in a best small environment where you're getting you know, the best score each week no matter what. But in your flex you've got to assume that a wide receiver is more than likely going to find that spot. So it's really like you almost have to think of it as maybe not a full four wide receiver start, but like a three point eight wide receiver start. You know, like you're you're starting many, many wide receivers. So it does allow you to lean into zero RB a little bit more. Now Over on DraftKings, you do have those extra two rounds too, versus a place like Underdog where they're eighteen. Having those two extra rounds, does that change your approach at all. Does that make you want to go maybe lean in even further into zero RB because you can just tack on two random running backs at the end.

00:35:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that. That is actually like the primary thing that I think I do differently with the twenty x rounds is you can often get like an RB two on a team in the eighteenth, nineteenth, twentieth rounds on DraftKings. So with the twenty rounds, you can take eight running backs. There's no problem taking eight running backs, which you don't really want to do that in eighteen round draft particularly. I guess half PPR doesn't really play into the equation, But in eighteen round draft it's really tough to take eight running backs on the team. In a twenty year round draft, you can still be pretty good everywhere else and just like lean into the randomness a little bit more with taking you know, maybe it's your last eight picks, you could do that. You could take your last eight picks all running backs and just take a bunch of players with different archetypes. You can you can take players that have maybe a little bit more of a floor guy like Austin Eckler goes pretty late on DraftKings that there are several of those types of players that do feel like they have somewhat of a floor, and you can kind of mix in those guys with the true like the Todd Brooks, who might be a complete zero but like has upside potential, and you just kind of like mix in eight of those archetypes and like, yeah, I mean it's sometimes you're gonna really be bad, really be hurting at the running back position. But like, as as many people have said, we're gonna lose anyway, So why not take a shot on the upside of just betting on a bunch of those late round running backs. Take take your favorites, mix in maybe a couple of the safer guys for a little bit of floor early on. I love that approach on on draftings, particularly with the twenty round draft. So that's one of the primary things that I do. I like three quarterbacks in general, Like even an eighteen round drafts it's probably average two and a half, Like I take two or three basically always in a twenty round draft, I want to take three quarterbacks like that is one of the things that I'm generally going to be targeting on DraftKings. Is a third quarterback, you can't really take them later on because they all the quarterbacks, as you know, on draftings, get eaten up really early. It's tough to find late round quarterbacks that you realize that maybe there's a couple, but you need to take them a little bit earlier. But you can take those three quarterbacks and just know that there are going to be kind of those long shot running backs available later on for or wide receivers, tight ends, whatever. But you're more able to build with three quarterbacks on draftings with the twenty rounds. And then I'd say the only other thing that I do a little bit more often in a twenty year und draft is I will sometimes take four tight ends. Still not something that I do like most of the time, but it's not uncommon for me to take four late tight ends on draftings.

00:37:56
Speaker 1: Yeah. I love that you specifically called out Austin Eckler and Todge Brooks, because Eckler, to me in particular, was one who had like, like his projection for me is not even really far off in full PPR than to Brian Robinson likes there's not that significant of a difference. You look at the ADP gap, there is a significant difference, and it's very easy then to go with Eckler. You know, in that environment. There's obviously upside too if something were to happen to Brian Robinson. Then Todge Brooks was another guy that I mentioned on the Late Round Fantasy Peopball show last week as someone as a rookie and redraft that I just to me, it just doesn't make much sense to have him be in like the nineteenth and twentieth round in these drafts. I think he should probably be more like a fifteenth rown type player, just because we know the environment's really good and the guy sitting ahead of him on the depth chart and Chase Brown. I like Chase Brown, don't get me wrong, but we also have to be open minded about, Hey, we only saw you know, half a season of Chase Brown being an elite belcal and so you know, I think the market is is properly you know, valuing that, because if they weren't, then he'd be like a one two turn type running back as opposed to where he goes you know, more in the third. But you have to be open mind to the fact that it's still a Day three back that they don't have a massive investment in and you know, TODJ. Brooks wasn't someone that really really lit it up for me as a prospect, but he also is someone who is in a very very good draft class, and he was really prolific and good at least on the ground. So I think there's there's some upside there. There's a lot of running backs just kind of like that, you know, in those very late rounds. So I think that's a great call out you did mention quarterbacks and going with three quarterbacks. I found it just really strange over on DraftKings, going going through drafts, and like you know, there are certain guys like I've gotten a ton of Drake May for instance, over on DK just because of where he sort of sits and where his his tier is in the pocket and where he goes. But to me, it kind of seems like there isn't a big enough gap between some of the higher end decent pocket passer types to that next tier to then the next tier, because there have been instances and maybe people who are less I've experienced this as well, and I'm coming at this again. I'm trying to become a best ball bro here. So I'm just talking to you about my experience, and I want Neil, as someone who's more experienced, to be able to see to say, yeah, I've seen that too. You know that makes sense, YadA, YadA, YadA. But it seems like if you're relying on a on a three quarterback bill, right, you have two guys who are you know, more of like high end twos or maybe low en qb ones, and you're trying to get this third quarterback and you're eyeing that tier of like Sam Darnold, Bryce Young, you know that grouping. It seems like every time you think they're going to be available, they end up not being available by the time you end up picking, and it's like it's like they're that tier. That final grouping a quarterback seems to be elevated like too much, like just a little bit too much. Is that something that you've experienced as well? Like is it? Am I going crazy? Because it feels like every time I need that third quarterback, I'm only stuck with like Aaron Rodgers crossing my fingers, or a Giants quarterback right, where whereas I feel like the other guy should be pushed out a little bit more than they are.

00:41:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, So as a more experienced basketball player. I mean, I've been playing basketball for five years. I started playing when it became popular, so like I'm still very much in the learning phase. And I think that we were having kind of the same experience where it's like every year the landscape changes and doesn't always make sense. And I think quarterback on DraftKings is like the best example there because in theory, like quarterback is less important on a full PPR site, like they don't really get receptions, so quarterback should be less important. They should generally go later. That is not the experience that I have had on DraftKings at all. People go quarterback crazy. They really, you know, the middling quarterbacks go a lot earlier than I think they should. The bad quarterbacks, all of them get moved up on DraftKings, at least in some drafts, like the ADP is actually not always entirely crazy. But yesterday I was in a draft where I set up several of those later options, like the Matt Stafford Gino Smith had several stacks that I was like, Okay, I'm going to get one of these quarter at the next turn, and then they were all gone. There's people taking their fourth quarterback or like they have two elites and they tack on a third, just like completely unstacked. Like you just really can't predict anything on DraftKings. So it's a lot harder to do that. But it is something that I'm toying with, which I think is kind of what you're getting at, which is I kind of think if everybody's going to be forcing up all of the middling or bad quarterbacks, it just makes me want to take those elite quarterbacks early on, Like why do I want to take I mean, Joe Burrow is like a good quarterback. I don't want to call Joe Burrow a middling quarterback, but like for fantasy, he kind of is, so like why don't want to take Joe Burrow around after where I can get Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurtz or one of these elite quarterbacks. So I think, and honestly, I've only started doing draftings drafts. I've only got like five under my belt, But I kind of think that's kind of the direction I'm moving in, is just taking those elite quarterbacks and then you know, later on when other people are scrambling to get the those bad quarterbacks reaching for a Gino Smith, then I can take you know a pretty good why. I can take Kyle Williams. I can take one of those mid round running backs who I think have a lot of value, and I'd take that two v two any day with my elite quarterback and an Austin Eckler versus whoever they take in the early round. I think generally it's a good idea to take one of those top quarterbacks and you know, let let other people reach and kind of push up the bad and middling quarterbacks. I do think like that is something that I think we're gonna have to consider more and more on draftings, which feels really counterintuitive to me on a full PPR site to want to take Lamar Jackson or I mean, I know, I listen to your your podcast, Jalen Hurts. I agree with you, Like it's tough to not want to take Jalen Hurt He's going any any of those kind of elite quarterbacks. They feel pretty good when when just having at least one of them early on, so you don't have to scramble to get a quarterback later and reach ahead of where you want to on one of those later guys.

00:43:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the That's something that I've really talked about and preached, I mean really since I started doing fantasy analysis backs, this is like thirteen years at this point. But when it comes to a quarterback position, in a onesie position, where there is a scarcity just inherently because there are only so many starting quarterbacks in the league, right so at most you're gonna have thirty two guys starting in thirty two viable options. And we know that teams like the Giants exist, teams like the Steelers exist, so it just gets lowered and lowered and lowered. Now you're only starting one of them, so naturally, you know, the vorp and the value that you're getting from those quarterbacks aren't necessarily going to be as great, you know, despite the fact that they are quote unquote scarce. But you have to react to what the market's doing. Like I always say in your regular season long draft that when you're the first team to draft a quarterback, you better be sure that other teams are going to follow or else you're going to devalue that quarterback selection that you just made. Right, So if you in your season long league draft Josh Allen in the second round and then Lamar Jackson goes in the sixth and Jalen Hurts goes in the seventh. Your Josh Allen pick, it was a terrible pick, right, And it goes in the reverse though, too, where if you can be at the start of that run, if you get Josh Allen in the fourth round in your season long league, and then Jared Goff and Joe Burrow and all these sort of like more pocket passer types go in round five, than that Josh Allen pick looks a whole lot better than it otherwise would. And that's what you're referring to here, where if these quarterbacks are being pushed up more, then that makes the value of that original quarterback, that elite quarterback that you're taking, that much greater. And it's funny because I've found that a lot of my teams do have those players Jalen Hurts, you know, I talked about on the show last week. I've gotten I still have gotten some Josh Allen, even Lamar Jackson, I think is a little bit easier than going than getting a guy like Alan, But like I've gotten like a Hurtz and Lamar more than I expected to. And I think that's what it is just kind of like an inherent like I know what the quarterback market's gonna look like when I'm in round thirteen and fourteen, I'm not gonna be able to get that much reliability because teams are kind of doing crazy things from an ADP perspective, which is a great thing on one hand, right because we can really extract some fun ADP value, which is something that Karin talked about last week. But then it's obnoxious on the other hand because your stacks are all screwed up, and you know, you're just not able to at least when you get that quarterback early, you know what you're working with. You know, like if you get Josh Allen early, you at least know that you have that quarterback and there are multiple outs then to create that stack.

00:46:20
Speaker 3: The other frustrating thing is you really do need to pay attention to like the way the market is moving, because because we're seeing what the market is doing right now, which is really pushing up the quarterbacks, and I think that's largely going to continue. I think last year that was sort of my experience as well, like quarterbacks generally went a lot earlier than a lot of them went earlier than I thought they should, so I think it might stick, but it can. It can turn really quickly where suddenly you're in a draft room where people are really waiting on quarterback and then you feel foolish for having taken Lamar Jackson early. So it is important to kind of pay attention to who's in your draft room. Sometimes we get to know the drafters a little bit. But also just like kind of paying attention to the shifting tides in best ball, because it, like you say, like just being able to sort of be able to predict what the rest of the room is going to do is pretty important, and it's generally hard to predict what the room is going to do. But I'll say this, my third and fourth teams on DraftKings felt a lot better than my first and second team, where I was just completely boxed out at quarterback unexpectedly because I thought, Okay, one of these guys clearly is going to fall to their ADP and then just none of them did, and I ended up having to take a late Daniel Jones and Jaln Milroe and unstacked, and just like I hated my teams, but later on I was kind of able to get ahead of it, and it's like, okay, I will reach for this quarterback even though I have a later out. I'm not going to wait for that those later outs like I often want to. Usually I want to kind of wait for like, all right, I give myself three outs, I'll wait for one of those. I started being like, you know what, those have not worked out, So I'm just going to reach four picks and take a different quarterback that I already have stacked up, rather than waiting for another quarterback that I have an out later on.

00:47:58
Speaker 1: So, if you're going three quarterback, like you know, I have a question of how vitalist is stacking for you, which I think anyone listening will generally know that answer. But I want to take that sort of to the next level and say, in a three quarterback build, let's say where you have Brock Purty and then you get Jordan Love and you're like, yeah, maybe I want to go with one more quarterback. I you know, I think you can probably get away even with those two. But let's just say that you want to go with a third in that case, would you be open to just drafting like a naked Anthony Richardson and For those of you listening, I know some of you are more inexperienced with like best ball and stuff. That just means that there's no other Colts players attached to Anthony Richardson. I'm not saying that I will physically see Anthony Richardson naked and nude as I'm drafting him. This is more so you get an Anthony Richardson and you're you're doing so, you know, without having Alec Pierce or aDNA Mitchell or Michael Pittman or Josh Downs. Do you do that at times or do you only do that out of desperation?

00:48:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty much only out of desperation. I mean maybe maybe out of spiration is a little bit of an overstatement, because occasionally I will do it. No, I out of desperation is probably the right way to put it, because ultimately I never go in with the plan like wanting to take a quarterback unstacked. Even when I'm taking three, I want all three to be stacked up. And if you read like Mike Leoni's manifesto Basketball Manifesto, that was kind of the point that one of the many points that I got out of that was the best ev You're a line I'm gonna have is three quarterbacks all stacked up. Those are the teams that are really gonna look good in the finals. Just just gives you multiple outs with the team stack. It's not always possible, so I do end up taking Like I said, I took Daniel Jones and Jalen Milroe as my second and third quarterbacks, and those were unstacked. It's okay, Like I will occasionally end up with some unstacked quarterbacks. And if I have three and I have two of them stacked up, sure I guess that's fine. But no, I never want to do that. It is always a kind of a last resort, Like, all right, all my quarterbacks got taken, all of my pass catchers, Like I don't have any pass catchers. I've taken a lot of pass catchers. I don't really want to take any more, so I can't like set up a new stack later on. Then I'll be like, Okay, I still think having this third quarterback like maybe covers a bye week for me, or maybe I just think my quarterback room is weak. Then sure I'll take a third unstacked quarterback. But yeah, it's never, never really my preference to take three unstacked. I just think stacking is really powerful.

00:50:27
Speaker 1: Do you think there's any credibility to the idea, And I'm thinking about this more on the fly, but to the idea of getting you know, you drafted a mill row, or getting like an Anthony Richardson who we know can give us spiked weeks by themselves, you know, without really doing anything through the air. Like if you were to go naked in the late rounds like that at quarterback, would that be sort of the archetype? And Daniel Jones even you know Daniel Jones can do that too, would that be sort of the archetype that you'd be looking for? Yeah?

00:50:52
Speaker 3: Absolutely, I do think like if I'm going to take an unstacked quarterback, I'd rather target one that is a rushing quarterback. And I've done it with Jalen Hurts, like we already brought up that example, like sometimes he just falls enough. And honestly, in years past, I wouldn't take him even at like pick sixty if I didn't have a j Brown Deavonte Smith, I would often be pretty hesitant. I've kind of come back around to you know what, maybe I'll maybe I'll stack him up later. But like some of these quarterbacks, if they fall enough, it's probably just better to take them unstacked, because we know we can just have three rushing touchdowns in a game. He's very powerful on his own. So it's never my preference to take an unstacked quarterback, even with the rushing quarterbacks, even Josh Allen, like I, I'd rather have a stack Josh Allen unstacked, even though like his pass catchers weren't really that great last year. But yeah, I've come kind of around to the idea of, yeah, maybe some of these rushing quarterbacks, if you get a good enough value on them, you should probably just eat that value rather than like, Okay, all of his stacking partners are gone, can't take him anyway because I don't have them. I've sort of accepted that as a maybe a concession I need to make to not stacking occasion. But yeah, so yes, if I'm taking a quarterback unstacked, I really don't want it to be a pocket past. I want them to have some rushing upside, even if they are a rusher. I prefer to have them stacked. But I in some cases, if there's value or just I have a need, I'm willing to take them unstacked if they're a rusher.

00:52:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, makes a lot of sense. You mentioned that you often will go zero RB or hero RB where you're not spending that much at the position early, So you know, I think you can go in a lot of different directions at running back this year. You know, I was surprised when I started drafting on DraftKings by how elevated the running backs were, how it wasn't as wide receiver heavy as I expected, just given you know, the full PPR platform there being a flex, because in the flex obviously you are comparing wide receiver performance to running back performance directly. But yeah, I mean the running backs are going early, they're going often. You know, I think that part of that is probably a reaction to what happened last year, where their health was just unbelievably good and there were some outlier things going on. But you know, how are you generally looking at the running back position? That's my first question. And then are there any early round running backs that you're just not into this year? Just in general?

00:53:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm definitely very into zero RB again this year and hero RB again this year. I really think last year was an outlier I think like even in some ways that like we haven't really fleshed out. Maybe people haven't. I haven't heard those discussions, but like a lot of the receivers that got hurt last year were the receivers that were on pace to absolutely smash. It was Rashi Rice, it was Chris Godwin, it was Rashi Jihied, like some of the top receivers that the guys who were crushing their ADPs were the guys that got hurt pretty early on. So I think like those of us who drafted a lot of zero RB got crushed last year, and the result is we're really pushing running backs up the board, even on PPR sites like DraftKings. But I think the thesis of zero RB still holds, where like late round wide receivers are just going to hit at a much lower rate and are a lot less predictable than late round running backs. So I still really like taking the points at wide receiver early on and then just taking swings on several running backs late. So yeah, I do think generally I'm going to be doing a lot more a lot of zero RB and hero RB again this year. I'm not going to be scared off of one real outlier year last year, and then in terms of players that I'm not drafting at all, the real answer is like where he's going, I'm not going to take a ton of Saquon Barkley just because I'd rather take several of those receivers there. Take the PPR points, but I might end up with zero Derrick Henry. Other than drafting with other people who are like adamant, no, you need to take Derrick Henry here, I might just have zero if he continues to be at that one two turn. I'd just so much rather have all of those wide receivers like you can get Brian Thomas often there, and people are taking Derrick Henry over Brian Thomas. I love brock Bauers this year. I think he's just like super powerful. So I think I'll probably end up with zero Derrick Henry.

00:54:57
Speaker 1: On draftings, let's talk about tight end real quick, because it seems like we have the big three at tight end where you have Brock Bauers, you just mentioned Trey McBride, and then George Kittle, who I personally think and I'd love to hear your take on this too. I think George Kittle is like unbelievably undervalued when compared like I enjoyed drafting Bowers and McBride. Don't get me wrong, Like I'm getting them, but I'm also just getting so much more George Kittle just because of where he falls and drafts and where his projection kind of lines up with McBride. But let's just say that there's a big three and then there's the rest. I think that the rest conversation is going to be really important this year. I thought last year, and I said it over and over again on this show, that figuring out tight end in the early rounds is going to be really, really key. And if you had McBride, you know, if you ended up waiting a little bit and getting brock Bowers and that was key. It was a really big deal for those squads. But we're kind of back to what tight end used to be, Like, you know, last year was kind of this transition period and then this year we have like the Set and Stone guys that we feel great about and then the rest. And so my question to you is which tight ends are you drafting most? Like what are you doing with the rest?

00:56:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, and the short answer is, so far, I think I've only left one draftings draft where I didn't have one of those top three tight ends, like I'm really going out of my way to get them. And I think that one only happened because my previous draft I had actually taken McBride, and then Kittle fell to me at the four or five turn, and I was like, ooh, I really want to take Kittle here, but then I already have McBride, so I felt I couldn't. So then the next draft, I was like, all right, I'm gonna wait this time, not gonna take me Bride, I'm gonna kill and then.

00:56:28
Speaker 1: Of course he went.

00:56:30
Speaker 3: So I really do love those top three, But if I'm not getting one of those top three, like I said, I do think like taking four late tight ends is a viable strategy, and there's several that are like pretty good. Often for me, it's just going to be building on stacks like with those like a Mike Asiki, if I have Joe Burrow, Hunter Henry, if I have Drake May But outside of that, because you're probably not gonna have all of your tight ends. Actually, Hunter Henry is a good example of like kind of a later tight end that I really like just like on that whole offense taking a step forward. He's one of those that I kind of target. Tucker Craft. I think I like more than most fantasy football analysts. I just think like watching him, I think he's he's a pretty damn good tight end. So I think part of it is just like I think he's good. I think he's really good. I think, like I've heard Michael Flora was asked reading the coach Beakin next discord, Michael floor was asked, could could Tucker Craft be your leading receiver next year? And he was like, yeah, of course, And I believe him, Like he's never been one who wants to lean on a top receiver. Wouldn't be that shocking to me to see them just say, you know what, I think our best receiver is our tight end. So Tucker Craft is just a player that I think is pretty good, clearly clearly won over that top tight end role on Green Bay, and I wouldn't be that And it's a good offense and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a pretty big target share in that offense. So he's one that I'm kind of targeting where he's going. I I'm kind of waffling on Breton Strange, he was one of my hot takes earlier on I was like, I think he's pretty good. He was what a second round draft pick? Yeah, yeah, had some good games last year, but then they took Travis Hunter, which kind of is like, Okay, now they've got two elite wide receivers. I don't really know what's left over for him, but I still kind of like Breton Strange where he's going. He's somebody like if I can get him anywhere near ADP and I need a tight end, I'm probably gonna take Breton Strange.

00:58:20
Speaker 1: And then I did.

00:58:20
Speaker 3: I liked the pass call out last week of Harold Fannon. I think is a pretty good last round target on draftings. Speaking of having those twenty rounds, like I do think that is pretty valuable. Just having that dart throw that could hit in a massive way in the twentieth round is pretty cool.

00:58:37
Speaker 1: Yeah. The sole let me ask, if you're getting four tight ends, are you mixing matching archetypes where you're you know, like, to me, I look at a guy like Hunter Henry and he looks like someone who is just gonna beat ADP, unlikely to be like a league winning tight end, right, like the unlikely, But then maybe you're into Terrence Ferguson or something who right, who has this ambiguous upset as a rookie who maybe you know obviously would have like crazy upside if like Tyler Higby got hurt, but maybe he just you know, gets in front of Tyler Higby on the depth chart at the end of the season or something like that, but you're not gonna get that much production from him, especially the front half of the season. Are those two tight ends? Then if you have a four tight end room or even a three tight end room where you're getting maybe your tight end one being a kittle or something, and you just get like two really really late round guys to tack on, are you mixing and matching archetypes like that?

00:59:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm trying to kind of have those those textures across the board. It's like we talked about with running back, like with with Austin Eckler and Todd Brooks. It's the exact same thing for me at tight end, Like I'd rather have some of that like safety, and yeah, I think Hunter Henry is like the perfect example of that kind of safe feeling tight end you can get pretty late zach Ertz, I guess would would fit that archetype. Actually don't even know. I don't like I've drafted zach Ertz yet. I don't know where he's going this year. But last year he was the perfect example of that, Like he actually ended up being maybe closer to a league winner than I would have expected. Last year he had some some big, big games. But yeah, I definitely want to mix those archetypes when I'm taking I meanless regardless of how many I'm taken. I guess maybe if I'm taking two elite, then sure you don't want an archetype of someone who's not safe. But yeah, generally, if I'm taking three or four, yeah, I'm mixing in a little bit of safety, and I probably don't want, you know, four late round rookie tight ends. I want to mix in at least one or two veterans there.

01:00:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, before I let you go, favorite value in draft site right now you can name more than one. I'm just curious about some of the guys you seem to be drafting a lot.

01:00:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we've talked about him a little bit on this show already. Austin Eckler, I would say, is my favorite value on draftings. I just think, you know, he's gonna see a lot of targets this year like that. That is a running back room where they didn't really they didn't add anything, and he's already the past getting back, so I think he's really valuable on DraftKings. Pat Bryant also goes pretty late if I'm throwing out another name just to take a bet on that rookie who is drafted higher than we're expected. Those are the two that immediately jump out to me as values and I'm kind of targeting on DraftKings. Honestly, I've been sort of impressed with the adp on DraftKings in general this year, Like there aren't as many players that I'm just like, oh, this is way too late as there were last year. But those are two that kind of stand out to me.

01:01:13
Speaker 1: Love those callouts. Both of them I've talked about on the show and send a newsletter blasts and such. Pat Bryant one, I don't know, he just isn't being talked about that much within the fantasy space at all. And to me, when it comes to like a late round dart throw like that, you're obviously not going to have many upside cases just because that's why they're in the late rounds in the first place. But with Pat Bryant at least like he had a decent enough profile in my opinion, you know, analytically, but then also if you look at how that coaching staff and Sean Payton's talked about him, it's been pretty favorable. And he did comp them to Michael Thomas. He said that he reminded him of Michael Thomas, which again, you know it's May and Jude. He probably said that like right after the draft, so it's like late April, early May. But building narratives with these late rounds picks, that's kind of all you got to do sometimes, right, because there's not that much to latch onto to begin with, and you know that there's a lot of upside with rookies in general and redrafted and best ball. So really really like that call out. But Neil, this was awesome. Really appreciate you hopping on. Let everyone know what you're doing, what you're working on, and where they can find you.

01:02:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, you can find me on x or Blue Sky at player q dfs. You can find me on YouTube. The flannel Verse is my YouTube channel. I'm also going to be doing a lot of best ball content. So far, I've just set up Wednesday night streams, like is going to be a consistent thing going forward. I will be doing more content than that as well going forward, probably probably gonna do some some VODs and other stuff. But I can check it out at the flannel Verse YouTube channel. My name is If you search my name Neil Orfield, I'll also probably find it.

01:02:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's awesome stuff. I always enjoy drafting with you and hanging on stream hanging out on streams and stuff with you. You can find me on Twitter at late roun QB on Blue Sky as well, same handle. Make sure you guys check out the Late Round Prospect Guide still for sale Late Round Draft Guide in pre order form David Kitchen I will be live one pm Eastern on Thursday for another episode of the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. Definitely check that out, but otherwise everyone, thank you for tuning.