885: Mailbag 5/31/24

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacherthis j J Zacher reson what's up everyone? It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode eight hundred and eighty five of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Hey, thanks for tuning in. There are tons of best ball drafts happening over on Underdog. Of all entry prices and sizes, you really can find a league in contest that's right for you. Some of you haven't tried best Ball out yet over on Underdog, So I've got something to offer you. If you've never signed up over there, head to Underdog Fantasy dot com or download the Underdog app. Sign up, make a deposit with promo code Late Round, and when you do, you'll get a deposit offer, but you'll also get a free Late Round Draft Guide, which is the thing that I put the most effort into each and every year. That draft guide is in pre order mode right now, which you can check out over on Lateround dot com. But if you'd rather not purchase it, you can get it for absolutely free by signing up on Underdog with promo code Late Round and making a deposit, and you get that deposit offer too, so again underdog Fantasy dot Com or download the Underdog app. Use promo code late Round when you sign up, and that's all one word late Round. It's a mailbag episode, though. Let's get to it. This first question is from twitters from at Ayush Mattal twenty three says, with the Colts drafting eighty Mitchell, is there a chance Josh Downs goes down the Elijah Moore path and gets pigeonholed as a slot receiver with minimal fantasy value got burned by More? Can we identify these types of wide receivers ahead of time? So I think there are some pretty big differences between Elijah Moore and Josh Downs. Obviously, neither player is very big, so there are some similarities there, and they both had really good collegiate production profiles too. But the reason myself and others were so bullish More after his rookie season is because he wasn't a slot receiver. That's what's so infuriating about the Elijah Moore story. We thought that he would be a slot but he only ran twenty nine percent of his routes from the slot as a rookie, and all of his peripheral numbers, is per route run numbers, his target share, I mean, even his fantasy points per game. They were all really strong. I think the story of Elijah Moore has just as much to do with off the field stuff as on the field stuff. That's just my honest take missing on him after year one. You're gonna hit on those types of peripherals quite often. It just didn't work out with Elijah Moore. Sometimes that's gonna happen. But that's a key difference between More and Downs. Moore wasn't just a slot guy. He played everywhere in year one. Downs was basically a slot receiver. Last year he ran eighty one percent of his routes from the slot. But fantasy gamers aren't valuing him the way they valued Elijah Moore after his rookie season. That can't be ignored. According to Dynasty League Footballs, eighty More was wide receiver twenty four in May after his rookie season. Right now today, Josh Downs is wide receiver fifty three. The cost to acquire and invest in Downs is totally different. For a projection standpoint, It's tough to get there with Josh Downs. There's no doubt we're talking about probably a middle of the road passing offense at best in terms of volume, and he's got competition in that offense. The way they've built the wide receiver room, Downs probably won't be out there in two wide receiver sets, and there's a chance that eighty Mitchell hits and then all of a sudden, Downs becomes easily the number three target getter on that team. But my philosophy with situations like this, when prices aren't substantial for a player, I want talent on my fantasy rosters. I think Josh Downs is a very good slot receiver. He was a good prospect, he had a good first year in the league. Rather than getting worked up about situation, I'll follow that talent when the price point is as low as it is for Josh Downs. So I don't really think this is a similar situation as Elijah Moore. Moore hasn't even been a slot guy throughout his entire career, Like beyond year one, he's played everywhere. Downs is more limited at the moment, but the price reflects that. This next question is from Patreon. It's from Robert. It says, using the two most recent podcast Tying Zap in year two model scores to redraft. Are there any players who are more in or more out? Now? Yeah? So on that show I talked about Chase Brown. That's because I just think Year two running backs in general are good bets across the board, similar to rookie running backs. Now, I sent a newsletter blast out about those running backs where I highlighted the top twenty four running backs who had poorer prospect scores. That newsletters for free. Go to Lateround dot com. Sign up, just give me your email address. That's all you gotta do and you'll get that content. Remember what that running back study said, which you can find in the Late Round podcast feed. But what that study said was that top twenty four running backs with prospect scores below eighty, they only exceed EIGHTYP expectation at a twenty six point seven percent rate. The norm is around fifty percent. Meanwhile, they've exceeded ADP expectation by three or more points at just a three percent rate. Just one of the thirty running backs drafted in the top twenty fourth the position since twenty fourteen who had a prospect score below eighty was able to give fantasy managers a big season versus EIGHTYP expectation. The running backs who are below that eighty mark this year while being drafted in the top twenty four. This is by Underdog ADP include Kyrien Williams, Isaiah Pachecko, James Cook, Ramandre Stevenson, and Zamir White. I think Stevenson and White are gonna end up being players to avoid for me this year. I actually do like Pachecko. I talked about him with Hayden Wings the other day. Meanwhile, Kyron Williams is definitely going to be a scare player to add to your roster if he's a firm second round pick and home leagues. That's based on this study and his poor prospect score. But also Blake Korum and then James Cook. I know it seems weird that his prospect score was below eighty, and it was just below eighty for the record, but the ZA model, my updated model, it didn't really love him. He's undersized and he was in a split backfield in college, so his production profile didn't look that good. I also don't think it's that crazy to think that James Cook might end up being a little bit overvalued this year when you consider what Josh Allen does on the ground and what Ray Davis might be able to do in the RB two role. Would it shock anyone if James Cook is not some massive league winner, if maybe he just matches ADP expectation. So those are the running backs that think twice about now a wide receiver. I'm higher on Zay Flowers for sure, players who have his type of year two score, who go in his wide receiver range. They've seen great results in the past. And then the other guy that I'm on the show, Jackson Smith and Jigba. I think JSN makes a lot of sense as sort of a post type sleeper. Those are the key players who I think those studies really called out. This next question is also from Patreon. It says, is it reasonable to predict a third year breakout for Jalen Tolbert? Dallas didn't do much to improve the wide receiver room and his only competition to be second on the depth chart is Brandon Cooks, who will be thirty one in September. Curious what your thoughts are on how Tolbert profiles for the year ahead and in Dynasty. Thanks. I think the chance that Jalen Tolbert truly breaks out, and I mean becomes like a weekly starter in your fantasy lineup. I think that chance is very slim based on what we've seen historically. You can do this for basically any metric. But let's just look at target share. Tolbert has seen target share per game rates to start his career of one point three percent and six percent. He's seen thirty nine targets in two seasons. Since twenty eleven. There have been over one hundred unique wide receivers individual wide receivers who played eight or more games in a season and scored ten or more PPR points per game during any season after year two. So we're not looking at rookies and second year players because Jalen Tolbert is no longer a rookie or second year player. These receivers only include guys who were drafted in twenty eleven or later two. So these guys were drafted after twenty ten, they're in their third NFL season or later, they played eight games, and they scored ten or more PPR points per game. Now, keep in mind, ten PPR points per game is not that high of a bar. It's not overly difficult for a wide receiver to hit that mark, and we have over one hundred who got there. Of those one hundred individual wide receivers, guess how many had target shairs below six percent in each of their first two seasons. Four of them. Those four are Noah Brown, Adam Thielen, Terrell Pryor, and Kamar Aikinmar Aikin talk about a remember some Guy's moment. Kamar Aikindrell Pryor is only on that list because he wasn't even playing wide receiver during the first two seasons of his career. So you're looking at a less than one percent chance that Jalen Tolbert becomes anything substantial. And with Adam Thielen being the outlier here, he was an undrafted player who needed to climb his depth chart. Jalen Tolbert was a Day two pick. It's not really an apples to apples comparison. Now here's another way to look at it. My Prospect Model database dates back to twenty eleven. It includes every wide receiver who's either drafted or at the NFL combine from twenty eleven until now. During that timeframe, four hundred and seventy plus wide receivers failed to score five pper points per game in both year one and year two. That number is so high because so many undrafted players or late round players. They don't do a whole lot in the NFL. Guess how many with a minimum eight games played in year three scored ten or more PPR points per game. Two of them, Willie Sneid and Isaiah Hodgens. They weren't exactly huge hits. I think if you're looking at Tolbert in a best ball stack, that's fine, go for it. I'm sure he'll have some usable weeks, but history is absolutely not on his side to be some big league winning player or even close to that. That's especially true when you factor in his draft capital. Because Jalen Tolbert has had opportunity, you have to ask yourself why he hasn't taken advantage of that. This next question is an email and says, hey, JJ, your prospect guide has been super helpful during rookie draft season and I can't wait to read the upcoming draft guide. Thank you. My question is related to redraft. In most home leagues I play in single quarterback leagues, qbs tend to go way ahead of ADP like sometimes two or three quarterbacks get drafted in the first round as a result, I usually get forced into streaming quarterback. What do you think is a good strategy here? Is there ever a time where you'd reach to get a quarterback just so you have someone that you can trust, or do you hope for the CJ. Strouds and Joe Flacco's to carry you through the season. Thanks Tyler. So the answer here is it depends as usual. But I get questions like this pretty often, and even the next question on today's episode it's loosely related to this. You can't ignore what the market is doing in your individual league. You have the overall market, which is ADP and how things generally go down, But then you have your individual leagues market, and if your league is going to value quarterbacks the way they're valuing them, you can't just ignore the position. You have to pay attention to that. Now, with that being said, the question I'd ask you is how much are they actually valuing these quarterbacks. Having a couple of teams in your league take a quarterback in the first round could actually be a huge benefit to you, because when they take a quarterback, they're taking a devalued pick. They're letting better players all to you. Where things get a little bit shakier is when teams are picking up multiple quarterbacks, which would dry up the waiver wire. Like if your best option to start next year is bow Nicks, then you have to think about spending up a little bit at quarterback. Your league is not just gonna follow ADP in situations like that, though, Instead of overpaying for a higher end quarterback, are inevitably overpaying for a mid range pocket passer, which we never want to do. I'd rather just burn a roster spot on a backup quarterback and platune the position to start the year. Get two QB twos and obviously hope that one can emerge as a QB one, But at the very least have two guys you can play a little bit by matchup and hope to get a QB one production from them. I'll be honest, though, it's tough to answer these types of questions when we're only getting part of the story. How big is this league? How many roster spots do you have? It's important to know when top quarterbacks are falling off draft boards. Yes, but what about the QB seven, the QB twelve, the QB fourteen If those players are still in line with ADP. Then all that means that you won't have an elite quarterback on your team, which is fine considering the opportunity cost, because those elite quarterbacks in your league are going in Round one. But if the rest of the quarterbacks are going where they generally go, that's fine. You can get those other quarterbacks. But if those guys are also going super early, at some point you have to adjust a little bit. You have to use your tiers because your individual league's market matters. The last question this week is from twitters from at no Meet and Team. It says, with the three to two wide receiver to running backs starting ratio on underdog, shouldn't the value wide receivers be a one point five x to the running backs? For example, the RB twelve should be going around the same point in the draft as the wide receiver eighteen. I consistently see wide receivers going way past two x Higgins, the wide receiver twenty seven going around Jacob, the RB eleven has zero RB gone too far. Now, look, I'm currently becoming a best ball bro, so maybe a current best ball bro will have a better answer than what I'm about to say. But this is also a question about supply and demand in fantasy football. That's something that I've talked about and studied for the last thirteen years of my life. It's good to be thinking about roster requirements because that drives positional value more than scoring does. Like when people say they're gonna go super early tight end because it's a tight end premium league, that's fine. But leagues where you're required to start two tight ends instead of one, that's where tight end value starts to soar. That's where elite tight ends become a lot more valuable, not because they're getting a little bit more points per reception. So it's good to be thinking this way. Where I think you're not totally thinking about this correctly. Well, there's two spots. Number one, it's not exactly a one point five x ratio or a three to two ratio like you're describing, because there's a flex spot. Two. If hypothetically wide receivers would always win the flex then it would be a four to two ratio, not a three to two one. Next, you're making some assumptions about the types of players that you're drafting here, and this is something I really really focus on in the Late Round Draft guide. You're saying that the RB twelve should be the equivalent of the wide receiver eighteen in this example. But what if the RB twelve isn't projected to be a whole lot different than like the RB twenty eight, Why reach for that player? Why force the issue? In my research, I've found that you'll have better success in the early rounds, generally speaking, with wide receiver in the middle rounds with running back. It's why I've preached an anchor running back strategy for years. Once you start getting into that RB two range, the players you're getting just aren't that much different from a ceiling perspective than a lot of RB threes and even RB fours. The drop off is a lot more gradual at wide receiver. But I think what's arguably more important here if the market is being illogical in your eyes, you can't simply ignore the market like I was saying with the last question, Like you can't just ignore the fact that everyone's going wide receiver heavy because they go wide receiver heavy throughout the entire draft. Best ball teams almost always consist of more wide receivers than running backs. So if you say to yourself, wow, the market is backwards here and go with a bunch of early round running backs. You're gonna fall behind dramatically a wide receiver. Just listen to what Hayden Wings said on becoming a best ball bro earlier this week. When you don't have four wide receivers through the first seven rounds, that's been a problem historically. Now. I could get into a lot more detail than this, but those are the main reasons is to why things aren't as clean as you're making them out to be. It's good to have that supply and demand mindset, but it shouldn't really be used as a multiplier. Understanding where positions generally hit, where they bust, and how they score points that's just as important. If you do want more detail about this kind of thing, you can definitely check out the Draft Guide. I go over this kind of thing every single year in it. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are mestaging for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't for to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening this week. Everyone greatly appreciate it as always. Enjoy your weekend and I'll talk to you next week.