334: Week 16 Matchups

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha, j J zacher.

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Speaker 2: Resa, what's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyeson, the editor in chief at Fandel and at Number five dot com. And this is episode three hundred and thirty four of the Late Round podcast on the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. The big hit last week on this show was Kenyan Drake. I liked him a lot more than the consensus, and he came through with a big performance. I was pretty average at quarterback. I got Patrick Laird wrong, I got Terry McLaurin right, and I missed on Jamison Crowder and John Brown. I'll actually be talking about those two wide receivers today. Overall, though, it was a decent week fifteen. This is the last one of these episodes of the season, so hopefully we end things on a high note. Now before looking at players and I'm higher and lower on versus the consensus for this week, I wanted to remind you guys that there are NFL games on Saturday, and that means we've got a three games slate for FANDEL on Saturday for just nine dollars. Compete for five hundred thousand dollars in prizes, including one hundred thousand dollars for first place. For more details on the contest, visit fandle dot com or download the fandle app today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Dak Prescott is better at home than on the road, like most quarterbacks are, but it's really hard for me to look at this matchup against Philadelphia this week and say that he's not a top five quarterback option. Philadelphia gets torched by outside wide receivers and the Cowboys have two really good outside wideouts and Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. The Eagles rank about average and adjusted fantasy points allowed, but they've been pretty awful over the last three weeks against Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning and Dwayne Haskins. That trio of very mediocre quarterbacks averaged twenty point six fantasy points against the Eagles. And don't forget Dak himself is very good for fantasy. He finished outside the top fifteen just twice this year, and he's fourth in points per game. I'd be confident playing Dak Price Scott this week. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the top streaming option here in week sixteen. Like I said on the fifteen Transaction Show a couple of days ago, he's been averaging more points per game than Russell Wilson since he returned as starter in Week seven, and he gets Cincinnati this week. That's allowed two point one points above expectation this year to opposing quarterbacks, meaning we should expect Fitzpatrick to score about two more points than his season long average. The game is a decent over under, it should be close, and that all makes Ryan Fitzpatrick a pretty strong play. Honestly, there are many quarterback options that I disagree with. Positively, I think Gardner Minshew and Andy Dalton are both streaming options this week if you need deeper plays, but Dak was the one quarterback who struck me as too low, while Fitzpatrick seems.

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Speaker 2: Like the easy go to streamer this week.

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Speaker 1: Now, there are two guys who I think are ranked a little bit too high this week who I want to touch on, though, or at least there's a lot of risk involved in starting them, and I'm not sure that that risk is totally realized in their rankings over on Fantasy Pros. The first is Jamis Winston. Now, I like Winston and I think think that he's a QB one this week. If you have him, you're probably playing him. But at the time of this recording, he's ranked as the QB four. He's ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott. I'd play both of those players over Jamis Winston. It's not because Winston's not in a great spot.

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Speaker 2: He is.

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Speaker 1: Houston ranks is the fifth friendliest team to opposing quarterbacks this year when adjusted for strength of opponent. But the obvious question mark that's out there surrounding Winston is that both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are gonna be out Who's he gonna be throwing to. It's not that he can't produce without those players, it's that Mahomes and Dak just seem like safer options despite more difficult matchups.

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Speaker 2: I'm a Winston guy.

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Speaker 1: I think he's better than most people do, and if you've got him, you're probably playing him. But temper expectations a bit. And the same could be said for Josh Allen. A couple of weeks ago, on the fifteen Transaction Show, I talked about Alan being a drop candidate.

00:03:53
Speaker 2: It was gonna be tough to trust him.

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Speaker 1: Against Baltimore, then Pittsburgh, and then New England against the Ravens, he posted ten points set seven points. Last week against Pittsburgh it was sixteen point four. The difference between those two games is that he was able to score on the ground. Against Pittsburgh, he had nearly identical passing yard totals in both games, and he was pretty ineffective through the air in tough matchups. Now he gets New England, a team that ranks by far the best in schedule adjusted points allowed to the quarterback position. If Josh Allen pays off this week, it's more than likely going to be because he scores a rushing touchdown and.

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Speaker 2: He does a lot with his legs. Now he's done that this year.

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Speaker 1: He's actually scored in eight separate games on the ground, but it still makes him a risk. Devonte Freeman was pretty bad in Week fifteen, but I like him to rebound this week against Jacksonville.

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Speaker 2: The Jacksonville allowed five.

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Speaker 1: One hundred yard rushers over their last six games, and when you look at the schedule adjusted numbers, only Carolina has been a better matchup for opposing fantasy backs. Meanwhile, DeVante Freeman's usage hasn't really been the issue this year. He's averaged a seventy percent running back rush year when he's been active this season, to go along with a near twelve percent target share. If the Falcons get into a positive game script, which is possible in this matchup, he'll have a shot to score in this game.

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Speaker 2: He's a solid RB two option this week now.

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Speaker 1: James White isn't the sexiest type of fantasy running back, but he gets the job done and I was surprised to see him ranked as the RB twenty three this week in PPR formats over on Fantasy Pros only because of his consistency. He's actually ranked lower than RB twenty three only twice this year, and he's hit double digit PPR points in all but two games as well. And it's not like Buffalo is that tough of a matchup for opposing running backs. Their average and adjusted points against and they've given up receiving yards to opposing running backs at an above average rate. It's not that I'm totally in love with James White, It's just that I think that he should be ranked higher. Boston Scott was an ad on this week's fifteen Transaction Show and I think he's not the worst play in PPR formats. He saw seventeen and a half percent of Phillies targets last week, and he played forty five and a half percent of their snaps. And the Eagles have a lot of holes at pass catcher. Not only that, but Dallas their opponent this week. They've given up her seven yards to running backs and above average rate, and twenty two point six percent of the targets that Dallas has faced have gone to running backs. That's one of the higher marks in the league. If you're desperate for reflex or even just need an RB two who could get you close to ten PPR points, I think Boston Scott is in play. Okay, So Raheem Mostard is the running back that you want in San Francisco, and the forty nine Ers as a team have scored the second most Fantasy points at running back this year. But I'd be lying if I said Moster didn't scare me. Over the last four weeks, Moster's been the RB thirteen, five, four, and twenty eight. Naturally, he has a fairly high ranking in Week sixteen, but over the last three weeks, Mostard hasn't seen a target share higher than nine and a half percent, and he's only caught a maximum of two passes in a single game since becoming more involved in this offense. The thing that's really helped him as touchdowns. He's scored a rushing touchdown in four straight games. He's getting work there, so we shouldn't expect him to have zero touchdowns. But look at his performance against Atlanta last week. Fifty four rushing yards, a running back rush share under sixty percent, a target share of six percent, and one catch for five yards. Without that touchdown, he would have scored fewer than five PPR points, and I doubt that he'd be ranked as highly as he's ranked this week. It's not the worst matchup this week, but I'm a little concerned about what his output could look like without a touchdown. You probably have to play him if you have him, but just keep your expectations in check. James Conner's return last week saw him with a fifty seven percent running back rush share and a fourteen percent target share. Not bad, but he also had just nine receiving yards and forty two rushing yards not great. The Steelers offense hasn't been good this year and It's been legitimately bad. In Duck Hodge's three starts since becoming starter against Cleveland, Arizona and Buffalo, Pittsburgh's averaged his twenty seven point eight yards per drive while scoring touchdowns on thirteen point three percent of their drives. From some perspective on the season, that'd be a bottom five number in yards per drive, and only Cincinnati is scoring touchdowns at a worse rate. So we know go into this matchup that Pittsburgh's unlikely to put up thirty plus points at least offensively. That means that players in the offense need a huge touchdown share in order to really pay off. Could it be James Connor? Sure, but the Jets also haven't been all that bad against running backs. In fact, the Jets have given up the six fewest yards to opposing running backs from scrimmage. They just allowed the sixteenth most touchdowns, so they're not as bad of a matchup on paper. But what if the opposing offense isn't likely to score a lot of touchdowns. That's what you've got with James Connor, and that's what scares me. He could end up with a low yardage total, but then his touchdown upside isn't that strong given the offense that he's playing it, that's a recipe for disaster. But look, if you have him, like a lot of these guys, you're probably playing it. But that doesn't mean he's without risk. I already alluded to this with Dak Prescott, but I love the Cowboys wide receivers to bounce back big time this week against Philadelphia, So that includes Michael Gallup. Gallup had by far his worst outing of the season last week, and he wasn't overly special the last time that we saw him against Philly, but he's played the majority of his snaps in the outside this year, and that's where the Eagles have gotten crushed. They've allowed the seventh most adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers this season, but they've seen the lowest percentage of targets go to the slot. That tells us that outside guys are doing work, So I'd feel good about him in Week sixteen. The same goes for will Fuller. Tampa Bay is the best matchup for opposing wide receivers, and when will Fuller's been healthy, he's gotten the rock and games that he's played the majority of the snaps this year, He's averaged over a twenty four percent target chair in the Houston offense. That's a great mark, and we've seen him with upside already this season. He's had two separate games of twenty one plus points.

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Speaker 2: This matchup and that.

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Speaker 1: Target share make him a great play this week. So there's a decent gap in rank between Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. The rookie is about ten spots ahead, but generally speaking, I chase volume over touchdowns. Shepherd's averaged a twenty seven percent target share per game over his last four, while Slayton's been at time twenty one percent, actually under twenty one percent. Really, the main difference between the two guys over this time is that Slayton had that monster game against Philadelphia. But I think both players are in play. I just think the ranking should be a lot closer. Jamison Crowder's a really interesting option this week. He's ranked at wide receiver forty, which I totally understand because Pittsburgh's a tough matchup. But they've also been bad against the slot this year, and that's really an extension from last season too. No team has seen a higher percentage of targets go to that area of the field than Pittsburgh has, and Jamison Crowder, according to Pro Football Focus, has played seventy five percent of his snaps from the slot this season. He's not easy to trust, but I think Crowders should be okay this week. I at least prefer him to Robbie Anderson.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: On the other side of things is Breshad Perriman. I don't mind him, and I'll be using him in potentially more than one championship matchup this week. So when I say he's overvalued, I don't mean to the point where he's unplayable, but I'd play Will Fuller over Breshad Perriman this week. He's ranked well below him right now. Despite his performance last week plus matchup, Parriman still just saw fourteen point six percent of Tampa Bay's targets. There's risk in playing him. He's not a lock like a lot of people seem to be selling him as the matchup is good enough to play him, but I think he's more of a low end wide receiver two or a high end wide receiver three. When he's a fringe top twenty wide out on Fantasy pros right now, Justin Watson could easily outperform him this week if Scotty Miller sidelined with his hamstring injury.

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Speaker 2: And then there's John Brown.

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Speaker 1: I was surprised that he was able to come through with such a huge percentage of Buffalo's receiving yards against Pittsburgh on Sunday Night. And Brown's a great receiver. I just don't trust him against New England. The last time these teams faced, Brown caught five of eleven targets for a nice sixty nine yards. But in New England against Stefan Gilmour, I think we'd all be more than pleased with that kind of performance. He's wide receiver thirty this week, but I think that's too high. Unfortunately, naturally, without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, we should expect an uptick and work for OJ Howard.

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Speaker 2: But really, over the last three.

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Speaker 1: Games, his usage hasn't been all that bad. He's averaged a sixteen point three percent target chair while hitting the eighteen percent mark in two of those three games. Houston's on an unbelievable matchup and opponent for a tight end, but it's very easy to see a path for upside for Oj Howard this week. He's a good low end tight end one, as is Mike Kasiki as long as you need a floor. He's hit a double digit percentage target share in seven straight games, which is something that I mentioned on the fifteen Transactions podcast, and since week nine, Kasiki's averaged about nine point four Fantasy points per game. That's not amazing, but it's useful. He can realistically finish as a tight end one without a touchdown this week, but if he does score, he'll get there given his strong target floor and also if you have Jacob Hollister you're playing in he gets Arizona, which is the best matchup for opposing tight ends by far. He's averaged over an eighteen percent target shair per game over his last four contests.

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Speaker 2: Too.

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Speaker 1: He hasn't really produced, but he shouldn't have trouble against the Cardinals. Two streaming defenses this week are the Dencos in the Atlanta Falcons. I talked about both defenses on the fifteen Transaction show, but if you missed it, Denver's a good play because they're a touchdown favorite at home and David Blau has taken at least two sacks per game over his three starts. Defenses have also finished his top five options against Detroit in each of the last two weeks, so with a low over under in that game, Denver should be fine. But my sort of deeper play than almost definitely is going to be on your waiver wire is Atlanta Jacksvill's had one of the worst offenses in the league since the start of November, and Atlanta's defense surprisingly has four top ten performances over their last six games, and those are six games since they changed up defensive play calling duties. So as home favorites, they're a pretty good play. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've yet to subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.