Late-Round Perspectives: Lindsay Rhodes

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Speaker 1: Lindsey Rhodes is the host of the Summer Sports show as well as Sports Illustrated's Fantasy Dirt podcast. She's a mom who spent years in NFL Network as a host and a reporter, and she's done work for NBC, Sports Direct, TV and SERIUSXM as well. These are her Late Round perspectives. This episode is sponsored by Underdog. Underdog is the easiest place to play fantasy sports, and they give you a ton of different games and contests to choose from each week. If you think drafting is over because the season started, you'd be wrong. You can draft teams over there each week in literal minutes right now. If you sign up an Underdog with promo code Late Round, you not only get a deposit offer of up to one thousand dollars, but you also get access to my rest of season rankings. Those will be emailed to you once you sign up. But when you sign up, you have to use promo code Late Round. Had to Underdog Fantasy dot Com or download the app to do so. Again, that's promo code Late Round. Now back to the show. Actually, there's one more thing. If you're listening to this episode with younger children, you may want to hold off on doing. So there's some talk about a certain holiday in this episode, and there's some swearing that occurs as well. I want to put that disclaimer out there because I know some of you listen to the show while you're in the car or just around your family in general. Now let's get back to the show. I realized like right before you hopped on that. So you, I mean, you have kids, right, so you probably you probably might know what this is all about. So, like we do Alph on a shelf right with my six year old daughter and my two year old. My son's about to be two, so it's like he kind of understands that the ELF's name is Pickles, and which my daughter named when she was like three years old. And every night since his football season and stuff, my wife really like takes hold of, like the play of what Pickles does every single night, right, And so last night we're sitting there, Wednesday's kind of like you know, with the the the fantasy football schedule, Wednesday's like one of our nights that's a little bit chiller than some of the other nights during the week. So we're watching a TV show and then afterwards she looks at me and she's like, can.

00:02:17
Speaker 2: I paint your nails?

00:02:18
Speaker 1: And I'm like what, I'm like, I'm not, you know, no, I mean, Caleb Williams, do whatever you want. I don't care, but I'm not painting my nails everything. Yeah, right, okay, And so she's like, yeah, we're gonna have Pickles paint your nails tonight. And so, you know, like like she can sneak in the bedroom. So I really I talked with my hands so much that people watching on YouTube are gonna be like, why you're here?

00:02:40
Speaker 2: So yeah, I have I have pink ye I haven't.

00:02:44
Speaker 1: I haven't taken it off. So my daughter went ballistic. It was well well worth it because of her reaction, you know that matters. That's I will take one for the team to uh, to make her happy that that Pickles did that to me.

00:02:57
Speaker 3: I tell you what, I think the smartest thing I ever did as a parent was not start elf on the shelf.

00:03:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, probably probably would be a smart thing to do.

00:03:06
Speaker 3: Can't get out now, you gotta do it. You gotta do it every single night. All of this creativity, I mean like people are going down like Pinterest rabbit holes, like TikTok, like I need another idea. No, we don't do that in this house. And my kids do think it's funny that other houses have elf on the shelf and like why don't we And I'm like, I don't know, we don't do that. We do instead we get advent calendar. And I've always done an advent calendar that's more of like a you get a small gift, like you know, they sell like you know, when my son was little, it's like Lego and Lego you'd buy like a Lego Advent calendar and he gets like a small thing to make was they as they've gotten older, it's become more complicated because they don't have like little toys like that don't do it for them. So then I've had to start doing like baseball cards and so I'll do like a you know, like small packs or whatever for my son. Anyway, it's become much more elaborate. But I would much rather do that than do the ELF on a shelf old. How old are you have the bandwidth?

00:04:01
Speaker 2: How old are your kids now?

00:04:03
Speaker 3: Ten? Son is ten? Daughter seven?

00:04:06
Speaker 1: Okay, so there are there they're still are then, like the Santa Claus face still still cool with all that.

00:04:11
Speaker 3: Yes, yes, so far as I know what.

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Speaker 2: Question questioning, but probably still cool.

00:04:15
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean I've always those those questions. I've always been really careful. I don't like ever feeling like I'm overtly lying in any way.

00:04:25
Speaker 2: I know that's how we are too. Yes, yeah, have some trauma.

00:04:28
Speaker 3: I think about that from my childhood and some things that my mom told me, you know where I would like repeat it later in life, and then as it's coming out of my mouth, I was like, oh crap, that's a thing she told me, isn't it? You know, Like and so I I I have been really careful of saying like, yeah, I don't know. I mean I've never seen him, but like that's what that's what they say, you know, that's what people say, and like, you know, I always answer the questions that way.

00:04:54
Speaker 2: That's how I always.

00:04:55
Speaker 1: I always will say when my when my daughter asked me something, I will just ask the same question back, well what do you think about this? And then and then she just creates a narrative and I'm like, yeah, that's a great like like she's she's from the start has thought that there is only one Santa, but all the Santas that we see are just helpers of his and that he because there's no way that that that Santa coul Possibly she's way too logical for it. I don't know if my son will be that way, but like she's she's gonna find out. Like that's sort of why we're like really really into Christmas these days in these next couple of years, because I feel like it's like she's gonna be probably on the earlier side of figuring it all out.

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Speaker 3: I know, spoiler alert if anyone's listening to this in their car with their kids, Like, I feel like you need to put.

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Speaker 2: Disclaimer.

00:05:39
Speaker 3: It's like an s yes, yes, Santa Claus discussion.

00:05:43
Speaker 2: Yes, exactly exactly.

00:05:46
Speaker 1: So look, with every lay round perspective's guest, I love to start with just the journey of how you got from point A to point Z. You know, maybe this is more like point M more and more more in the middle, right because.

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Speaker 3: It stimistically yeah yeah right right, but.

00:06:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, like we're we're doing stuff in the fantasy space now.

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Speaker 1: But you, I think compared to a lot of the other guests that I've had, you know, you weren't necessarily just like hey, it's twenty fifteen, and I want to, you know, and I hate my day job. I'm going to try to do this fantasy football thing and this growing industry, and so I'm going to start a podcast and maybe start blogging and stuff. You have a much different background, So tell me about it, like, like talk through it all, like how you got into sports in the first place, but then also how that led you down this path to also doing some fantasy content.

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Speaker 3: So I originally came in through a more traditional broadcast journalism route, which even by the way, that that route is so different now than it was when I got into it. But so I went to college kind of thinking like I want to be either the next hand of Storm or the next Diane Sawyer, and then kind of you know, landed in some internships in sports and realized that that was the path that I liked much more. And thank god, because holy heck, if I had into up at like at my age, you know, now landing in like a political discourse like no, thank you out. So yeah, so it was sports for me and did like a small market route, you know, where you like, move away and you have to go live in you know, some very small town and give up everything that you've ever known and loved in order to be at broadcast. But honestly, and like I still in a very outdated way tell people who want to do broadcasting that they should still do that because there are so many different ways that you can get into it now and you don't have to leave, and you can start a YouTube channel and you can do all these different things. But there is experience that you get when you go live in an environment like that where like in a small town, you know, the people who are doing all the heavy lifting for the local news station are like in their twenties, you know, and so you have to one man bandit. You were like being sent out in the field in a way where like like a I was covering murders and I was like I don't know what to do, you know, like I'm like twenty two, Like why am I in charge of this story? Like the GRAVI toss of it is way over my head. But you just learn how to figure out like a way to turn out content every single day. You've got a deadline every single day. You got to figure it out, and you get better faster, I guess is so anyway I did that and then ended up moving around, ended up landing and like you know, Fox Sports West in LA eventually and then just doing a majority of sports in a majority of different like all of the different roles. I was a host, I was a sideliner reporter. I was a news of the day reporter, go out and like turn a package on the thing that you know was the news. And I think that that was all really good experience too and kind of taught me what I liked and what I didn't like. And then was at the NFL Network and started focusing just solely on NFL for a period of time. I was there for twelve years and kind of landed in more of a hosting role. Was just where I was for most of that time, and it it was a dream job in a ton of different ways. But since I was shown the door during COVID.

00:09:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean a lot of people were there totally.

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Speaker 3: Hi, your contract is up right now, that's not ideal. Thank you for your service. It's been a really interesting pivot for me in that time period after the industry is changing so dramatically in a ton of different ways, and I think it's it's been I've I've really loved it in a lot of different ways because I felt like when I was at NFL Network, you are within a specific format, playing a specific role, like as a host, you asked questions. And I grew up again as a broadcast journalism very much Big Jay journalism was like my training. So for a very long time, I operated under the you are not the story. You do not have opinions. You talk about the facts. You talk about the things that you're seeing. I would go on radio shows locally and people would ask me questions and I would find ways to pivot off of my answer and my opinion about it and just tell them back, like let me contribute more information that I have about the subject matter. Like I didn't have opinions about anything because I just didn't train myself to have those conversations. Yeah, And so overtime at NFL Network was in like you know, meetings about shows with people who were like former general managers and coaches and players and all this stuff, And over time started having conversations with them where I was like, I do I can hang in these conversations and I do know about things that sometimes they don't even know about because I'm just so immersed in this on a day to day basis, And so the last handful of years since I left NFL Network has been me kind of exploring that and getting more comfortable talking about my opinions and settling into that and then obviously pivoting into the fantasy space while also trying to keep you know, some hands, some stokes in the fire of just like straight NFL conversations too. And it's it's been a really a really interesting last few years in terms of growth.

00:11:16
Speaker 1: I think, Yeah, I mean that's a complete backwards way that people generally get into this space. At least, you know, like people people are trying to be fantasy analysts because they have these takes that are sitting there that they just want to get out really badly, right, and they you know, that's that's it's the complete opposite of what you're saying, where it took you some time to get used to that and to realize that you had that voice to begin with. I mean, you you've done so many different things within sports, as you just noted you just talked through. Is there like a singular event or like a topic, or even like an interviewer anything that stands out as like this was the best experience, whether it was just like awesome, right, Like maybe it was just really cool, but also maybe it was just a big learning for you to get you to where you are now.

00:12:04
Speaker 3: My best professional experience and it was clearly a pivot point and a turning point in my life in a bunch of different ways, was covering the Beijing Olympics in two thousand and eight for NBC. And I had been working for Fox Sports West in a regional capacity for a long period of time. Kind of felt like my head was butting up against the ceiling of what was going to be made available to me in that company there, and had the opportunity to go work for NBC. But it's a short period of time. They're like, hey, we're going to offer you a reporting job. It's for I don't even remember how long, like four weeks or something like that. It's like it's a short period of time. You're going to come here and this is like by far, like very freelance, and then you're going to go back to your life and that's all we're promising you. And so I had that offer, and I was so excited about the opportunity about doing that and what was offered to me was Oh God, what do they call it? She would I forgot. I think they called the sports desk. And so it's a group of people. I was part of a unit that was like I had sports experience, and there was like Lester Holt was in the same group. It was people who had a bunch of different types of expertise, Like NBC's leading medical expert was part of this group. And so they put a bunch of different types of people and then we were kind of like the utility players and we would go and just fill holes. And I was so excited about the opportunity to do this, but Fox had told me at the time that they weren't going to let me do it under my contract, and so I had a decision to make, and I said, I want out then, like I will go be a free agent and if you'll have me, i'll come and I'll do freelance work for you moving forward. But I don't want to be under contract with you with that stability, because I need to do this. And so it felt like a really big swing that I was taking, Like people talk about betting on yourself, you know, And luckily that particular one did pan out and it was such an like it was my kind of jump from going like like I can do it here in a regional capacity, but I don't know where I fit in in a larger picture. If I can do this, how do I compare against the best of the best. And so suddenly my colleagues there were literally like household names, and I was sitting at like, you know, breakfast tables with them before we'd go out into the field. And it was the most happy that I can remember being, like in an overt and really conscious way. Yeah, in a work environment. I just felt very proud of myself and very like I think I can do this, and it was it was a big pivot point for me. And then I started freelancing at a NFL network as soon as I got back, and then that led to a full time job and so ultimately it all worked out.

00:14:52
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:14:53
Speaker 1: I mean, like I think that there's always like moments where you're like, you know, I don't know, I question myself plentying, right, I think everyone human questions themselves. There's there's definitely imposter syndrome that goes on in any space, let alone one where like your competing, like there are only so many spots available, right, there's only so many seats at the table, and so naturally you're gonna start to question yourself.

00:15:12
Speaker 2: But then you have those moments.

00:15:13
Speaker 1: Where you're like, Okay, all right, maybe I can hang a little bit, maybe I can do this.

00:15:18
Speaker 3: Right.

00:15:18
Speaker 2: That sounds like that's that's what you had there. That's pretty cool.

00:15:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I think it's funny you mentioned that. I mean, I think that that's an important conversation for everybody to have, Like that imposter syndrome is so real and for me, for me specifically as a female doing this and getting into the industry at the time when I did, when there weren't that many females and there were legitimately some jobs. Like the way that the way that jobs were decided, Like the higher up you went, I think the decision making got worse in terms of like how jobs were filled. Like at the local level, they needed people who could get their shit done, you know, because like I just I don't have time to think about this, so you had to actually be competent at doing the job. And then higher up you got it was almost like the less responsibilities that you had, you know, like working at a network you have like now I'm not doing my own hair and makeup. I'm sitting in there and they're taking care of that for me. And then there's somebody I'm going, hey, find me a stat like here's what I'm thinking, and then they're doing the legwork. But like in the first job, and name the second and the third, you're literally doing all of that yourself. Nobody's there to answer your questions. You got to find it. So it almost gets easier in some ways the higher up that you go in terms of broadcasting. But also when I first started, there were certainly people who were making decisions in sort of backwards ways. They were like, we need a woman, and they're like, let's go find a woman. And there would be people who would call up like CAA and be like do you have a woman, And they're like, I have a model over here who's great. I'd love her to And I'm like the number of people that are trying to go up small market, medium market, they're really competent people who also will meet your visual demands, who are trying to do this job in a good way, which and none of this is a statement about the people who ended up doing the jobs but I just think that, like there was an environment that was really weird, and so it felt very much I grew up in this industry feeling like I needed to prove myself yes so much and so. And I didn't play sports growing up, So there's certainly an imposter syndrome in that sense, Like what am I going to contribute to the conversation. I'm a journalist, Like I'm not bringing expertise to the table. I'm a journalist. I'm here to ask questions. So that's my expertise is how to drive conversation, how to get to facts, and how to figure out what is not known that I can now find out so that the audience will know moving forward, what's my value added? It's that and then pivoting off of that over time, Like I said, sitting in those meetings and realizing that I had sat in enough meetings and I'd asked enough questions to enough people that did have that experience that it had framed a thought process in myself. Like people always told me you should go to radio because you get comfortable talking and then you can just go like you can add lib you don't have to come up with like a little script for a forty five second hit and I was very like, no, I do I need to come up with that because I didn't have that experience and I didn't trust myself. But I also think that I couldn't have done that. The way my brain works, I needed to know that I had something to say in order to feel comfortable talking.

00:18:17
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:18:18
Speaker 3: Nowise, I would have just been like, oh is that stupid? And I wouldn't have been comfortable in the environment. And over time I had enough experience gained that I was like, oh, now I actually do know something, but I don't know that I did. At the beginning, I didn't. I didn't have something to contribute to football conversations. In the beginning, I was only capable of asking questions and doing that job well in that way. Now it's changed, and so now I feel like I can kind of do both.

00:18:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, is there is there a particular medium that you feel most comfortable doing, like for like I'll just throw for instance. This is you know, from my perspective, I know that podcasting is my bread and butter, and I can like I've done TV.

00:18:57
Speaker 2: I hate it.

00:18:58
Speaker 1: I'm terrible at it all. Like I just know I don't believe that. Oh my god, I hate it. But but part of part of it too though, goes back to like, to me, I like to do the things that I know that I can prepare for and am comfortable in. It's a difference between inability of being able to do something and just loving it and feeling comfortable doing that thing and not dreading it, you know.

00:19:18
Speaker 3: And you're like very much like me. I listened to your podcast a lot, Yeah, and I and I think the way that you approach it so me being in this space too, I can tell that you've written out the things that you want to say right that you're not just like stream of consciousness, let's shoot the shit like you're You're being very time efficient with your thoughts, can be strategic, but I think is also probably comfort based, and that's how That's how I have always been also, And if somebody was to say to me, go do And in fact, I have done podcasts like my own podcast before, and I used to do fantasy stuff on Friday and I would write it all out and aways well, and I have and I have you know, as I'm sure you you also feel comfortable now. I have a lot of experience writing conversationally, so it sounds like what I've written is maybe possibly coming off the top of my head. But I want it to be time efficient. I don't want to waste anyone's time. I don't want to I don't want to do that. I think you do that very well.

00:20:18
Speaker 2: Thank you. I really appreciate it.

00:20:19
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:20:20
Speaker 1: I mean, like I said out with the Late Round podcast, I was like, look, there's show so many shows out here that are an hour, hour, fifteen minutes long. I was like, I need to what is the way to get it shorter? You have to like a chunk of the show, of course, is scripted, because I need it to be in order to get it to And I'm saying things over and over again too, like it's the it needs to be that way in order to get it in twenty minutes as opposed to, you know, an hour, hour and fifteen. And it's always funny because people are like, why can't you make it an hour long? I'm like, dude, it's easier to have these conversations with somebody in a podcast form less prep, you know, like there's there, it's easier to just go back and forth like you're just having a discussion at a coffee shop or something as a to carrying it yourself and doing it all yourself in that way. But yeah, I mean like I think that everyone like has a a whatever they're doing in their job, like, there's gonna be something that they're more or less comfortable with. They might be capable of doing some of the things, but they'll be more or less comfortable doing those things.

00:21:19
Speaker 3: Is there is that?

00:21:19
Speaker 2: Is that true for you? Are you more? Did you love being on TV?

00:21:23
Speaker 3: Or what? Like?

00:21:23
Speaker 1: Did you get that fire or has it been like the podcasting world? Has that been really fun for you? Has there been a medium that really sticks out?

00:21:31
Speaker 3: Well? The podcasting is the thing that I think I've enjoyed the most. It's been by far the least lucrative thing that I've ever done financially. Like I'm like this, this sucks like from a bank account standpoint, but I love it. I love it because it gives me a little bit of space. And I've always been who I've been in all of the spaces. Is like, how can we get to the I hate having conversations that feel forced, that feel like they're they're not that No one is naturally curious about them like that's my I can't deal. I can't deal with the debate shows that feel forced to drive ratings, the fake engagement. I can't do it, Like it's just not my jam and I can't even fake my way through it. And there were definitely conversations that I led at NFL Network that where I was like, why why is this the question of all the questions we could be asking And the number of times that you know, I forced fire. Higher ups are probably like, fuck, it's her again, you know, like, and they had to explain to me the way that ratings work, and you know, every time we said the name of the Cowboys quarterback, we did see a spike in ratings. And they could go minute by minute and they track those things and they see like what drives you know, viewership and what turns off it drives people to turn off TVs. And I was like, I can't do it like this because my brain is like, Okay, I realized that the Jaguars have a small fan base, but let's say the Jaguars are good, right, So, and there were years there where they were like coming out of the AFC and they were one of the best teams in the AFC if we can't in that moment talk about the Jaguars, who are legitimately relevant in a bunch of different ways, and not for nothing, but forget the fans. Forget Jaguars fans. Let's say it's not for them. How many people out there playing fantasy? How many people out there are betting? Like you think people are just tuning in just to hear their favorite team and what happened with them that day. Like, that's not the world we live in where the NFL is concerned at all. And so I had a really hard time kind of like not fighting the system in that way. So it's nice now that I can say, what do I want to talk about? What do I think for interesting stories, questions that I have like? And also then there is a benefit that comes along with having done the NFL network thing for so long in the sense that people will return my calls, people will respond to my DMS. If I say, like, Hey, I have a question about you know this guard or whatever, you know, I can go like the person that I think is the biggest expert about it. It's also framed. It's also framed because I've been in so many rooms where those conversations are happening from a TV standpoint where I realize that, like the TV model is to have people who are the stars of the show and the analysts that you are using most frequently, whatever questions come up that day, you're putting it to them. Yeah, they are not necessarily the expert on that particular subject matter.

00:24:41
Speaker 2: Yeah it's good, Yes, thank you for saying that.

00:24:43
Speaker 3: And so you end up hearing from people who are very good at some things and certainly know their football, but you're asking them to opine about something as an expert about which they are not an expert necessarily. And now I can go, Okay, I'm an oline question. I'm gonna call Brandon Thorn. I have a wide receiver question. I'm gonna text Matt Harmon, you know. And I've come to realize, and I think people who are still operating in the big media standpoint, they don't they don't even know that this whole world exists, like they literally don't. I'll pull people aside and I'll be like, oh my gosh, I mean, I say Matt Harmon's name, my favor, reception, perception as frequently as I can on radio hits that I'm going on because I'm like, I feel like it's my duty to tell people it exists because the content is so good, there's such a quality of expertise, and just because he's not a Hall of Famer doesn't mean he doesn't know what he's talking about. And in fact, you'd be surprised. You're right, one actually is watching the tape, charging the data and knows what the frick they're talking about.

00:25:48
Speaker 1: That's the thing, Like, I remember who was it? There's an X running back? I mean, it's probably better that I don't call them out.

00:25:55
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:25:55
Speaker 3: Probably.

00:25:56
Speaker 1: They came out and said that the best running back this year they had watched like halfway through the season was Rashad White.

00:26:02
Speaker 2: Okay, and here this year.

00:26:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, And so I tweeted it and I was like, you know, I said something snarky because it was it's a ridiculous and it was the next running back, right. So naturally there's this appeal to authority that happens where people are like, well, did you play running back?

00:26:18
Speaker 3: No?

00:26:18
Speaker 2: I didn't play running back.

00:26:19
Speaker 1: But it doesn't mean that, I like, it doesn't mean that we can't sit back and say that this is not the this isn't a proper evaluation, like it's it's just because you.

00:26:28
Speaker 2: Did or didn't play.

00:26:29
Speaker 1: Now, I of course that people who did play are gonna have very interesting can have I should say, really interesting insights based on their experience and and you know, the position that they played and uh, you know, going through practice and team and games, et cetera, et cetera. Like they're gonna have a different perspective than me who sits in his mom's basement and crunches spreadsheets.

00:26:48
Speaker 2: Right, but at the same time, like there's plenty we can still disagree.

00:26:51
Speaker 1: And this is all very subjective to begin with, you know, and it's okay that there's going to be that sort of dynamic in my opinion.

00:26:58
Speaker 3: Well, and the question that's post to them should be pretty specific, right, like so it's like who when you watch, like what who has impressed you? And then there's a follow up question back And by the way, there's no time for follow ups and TV. That's the other thing that I love about podcasting is I can go ten layers deep on the same subject matter, which out feeling like, oh crap, like now we're out of time and you still haven't asked about the quarterback, which always has to be asked about. Yeah, of course again ratings driver. But you know, it's usually like that second or third layer where you really get to the interesting answer, which is like, so if you're like, okay, so Rashad White, what about Rashad White do you like when you watch? Like? What about his style of play? Popped to you? And then now, now that answer might be interesting. I'm I tend to think that that person probably wasn't actually watching if they said, but there might be something to give that person the benefit of the doubt, something that they do see that they think is hard to duplicate, and they might have something of value to bring to the table. But to say blanketly like this is the best running back in the league is objectively wrong. It's objectively wrong, right. We in the fantasy community were the first to understand that Bucky Irving was going to be a name that we needed to know this year because we're looking for edges. And this is something that I think I've really figured out in the last couple of years, And this is my soapbox that I will stand on when I go into non fantasy circles. Is that if you think that those fantasy analysts are just like over there, like you roll your eyes and you think that that's not real analysis. I assure you that you're wrong, and go listen to it. And you know, obviously not every single one. But the objective in fantasy is to find an edge that other people don't have. And the content is so good that data that's out there is so good in our access to tape is so good now that you can sit on your computer and look for like what the numbers are saying and what the tape shows you and try and find something that isn't consistent. And Rashad White and his rushing success or lack thereof it last year, even though the fantasy numbers were really good, you had to go, is this going to continue? Always looking for something that's predictive and there was nothing sticky about what he was doing. When your job is to be a running back and you are the least successful running back in the league, but you happen to catch passes out of the backfield, and so therefore the numbers look good like efficiency matters. That's why when Dalvin Cook, when the Vikings moved on from him, those of us that are really in the weeds of the advanced numbers. Knew that his efficiency stats had plummeted, but his volume stats were still there because he was the only running back and they were giving him the ball every single time, and so he still had one thousand yards. And then when the Vikings move on from him, a lot of the former running backs that are on TV said, I don't know what they're doing. He is one of the best running backs in our league.

00:29:56
Speaker 2: And he had eleven hundred yards.

00:29:57
Speaker 3: He's not anymore, and why do I know that?

00:30:00
Speaker 1: And you don't, Yeah, right, right, And well your point about like like this is part of the reason, Like I you know, people ask me to like go on radio and stuff like that, and I hate doing radio hits too because you're not able to flesh out an idea.

00:30:12
Speaker 2: And I'm that's literally like what I do.

00:30:15
Speaker 1: Like with that, I will do a podcast on handcuffing running backs for twenty minutes, you know, and like getting on like I can't just be a hot take machine. It's just not my style, not my thing. Whereas I think that's just what you can do when you're on these different platforms and on these different mediums, like unless the show itself for what have you is like allowing you to sort of dig in and dig deeper into these topics. Podcasting has really become the one space where you can do that. But also look at the fantasy space. Fantasy analysts are largely just doing podcasts. It's not like people are on TV all the time. It's like people are doing radio hits constantly or anything like that. So what that means is we can't go out there and just say things because we're gonna get destroyed by the end if we just go out and say something without it having any substance and any backing and any sort of statistical evidence and such, and so I think that's a really really big difference between like what.

00:31:14
Speaker 2: People see on TV.

00:31:15
Speaker 1: It's not you know, I don't even want to say that the people on the folks that are analyzing stuff on TV can't are incapable of doing it. It's just you're not getting as much of that, you know, on these different platforms and mediums versus what you can get sitting and listening to a podcast.

00:31:29
Speaker 3: Well, and I will say this in their defense, but it does not defend the structure of the medium. Yes, but just in terms of the people. One thing that I found when I was working in an NFL network is that you are so caught up in the wheels of like I mentioned now doing the podcasting thing, that I get to decide what I think is interesting and so then I can go down a rabbit hole in my own time, spend my time doing that. I dictate what my time is spent doing. People who work for big company and are doing a show every day that's an hour or more than that. Other people are dictating the content, right and then contributing to whatever and are saying, now, we also have a great graphic. Here's the graphic we chose. You come up with something to say about it. So you're kind of chasing the structure of the rundown. For a majority of the day, you're having a meeting, and a meeting takes an hour and a half to discuss what we think about all of these different things and which ones we should prioritize and more. And sometimes other people are talking and you just have to sit and you have to wait, and you're like, this is not a good use of my time. Like there is structure When I did total access, Like like I like to say, and I relate to what you said about, you know, the like time efficiency and the way that you do your podcasts so much, because I think that I had a reputation at NFL Network probably as somebody who scripted things too much. And what people who are viewers don't unders stand is that, I mean, it's not always the case for me. I did put stuff in prompter. I was operating off a prompter for a majority of the shows that I did there. I was writing the things that went into the propert That's my whole day, Like, the majority of my day is writing it and trying to figure out how to best and most time efficiently structure all of the information so it flows so I don't waste time on segues. Sure, and then I'm squeezing as much. It would be like you have twenty five seconds to say hello, you and your co host say hi, and then it's gonna be a twenty second veo of maybe it's today it's Brees Hall walking onto the practice field with his helmet going straight to the rehab you know, like is he gonna play? Is he not? And then it's a SoundBite from the coach afterwards saying I don't know if he's gonna play we hope so, and then there's a graphic and the graphic is twenty seconds. Don't spend any more time on that because it's boring visually, and it's with Breese Hall and without Breethehall, right and so, and everything is so time stamped and you have to figure out you got to be done with that in twenty seconds, so you can't. In my opinion, people did ad lib those shows, and I could have ad lib. I could definitely do it now. I didn't train myself to do it then, so I don't know if I could have. But in my mind, I was like, I can do the best show for the audience if I think about what is most important to get out in this fifteen second.

00:34:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, like what matters to them like at the at the end of the day. Yeah, it's always like you're doing it backwards too, if you're if you're if you're coming up with the like like.

00:34:38
Speaker 2: Graphics and stuff.

00:34:39
Speaker 1: As you said, it just seems like content and ideation is not really leading the charge a lot of times.

00:34:44
Speaker 3: No, but that's because in that world it's a visual medium exactly, and so they have to say, like you could go well, I just think it's really interesting to talk about such and such, And then they'd go, Okay, what are we going to cover it with? What's the video? Yeah, you know, and you're like, you know. So for conversations that you have, they they have to be conversations for the most part. Sometimes you can get away with this, not with it being just a we're sitting around a table and cut some cameras. But for the most part, they're like, we only want you on camera for a certain period of time because we need it visually to move because people's attention spans are not long, right, which is true. And then so then I need to have video that is relevant. And then I need to have or graphic that is relevant or a social media post that is relevant that can cover it visually so that the visuals are constantly changing. That is something that we don't have to deal with this in this space. And so you can have a conversation that isn't scripted, because the conversations on TV have to they're not scripted, but you know what everyone's gonna say, and it's planned out and it has to go that way or else they're not prepared to cover it, right, And it just kind of it just hamstrings the whole whole process, and to me is part of the reason that now that this space exists and people are doing YouTube shows and podcasts and people are getting used to people talking like that. Now you go watch a TV show and you're like, it feels like like I'm watching something from nineteen eighty. Yeah, you know, like a lot of these platforms just haven't figured out how to pivot off of that. You watch the news and they're reading like a scripted like you know whatever, telling a story in a scripted form, and it's very formal, and they talk in like local news, not sports, but local news. There was a big thing when I was in journalism where they had to be active phrases. And so that's why you will hear people say, like, God, what's the word? They never talk in past tense interesting, never because that's not an active phrase, and they need to move off of that. Because you watch the local news, and it's the first thing that's going to make the thing feel dated and weird is they're like, you know, running to the store for black fry. Oh yeah, people out in full force. They talk in weird like sentences that aren't complete sentences because they're trying to avoid the past tense, which I'm like, people went to the store early this morning, like that's normal, you know, like people are racing to get to Walmart first, Like that's no one talks like that. Yeah, but they just haven't figured that out yet. So we're in a weird kind of in between period of time, I think when it comes to all broadcast mediums catching up to the ways that this one has changed their business.

00:37:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's super interesting. It's super interesting.

00:37:37
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into into some some individual player stuff, player takes, some stuff going on in fantasy football. Let's start with the Jets back though you mentioned brees Hall, Okay, Breesaw, it doesn't sound like so we're recording this before the Thursday night game, so everyone knows. As of now, it sounds like Breeshall is not going to play. We have Braylen Allen and Isaiah Davis in that backfield. We saw a pretty big bitty fifty split last week. Are we Are you just expecting a fifty to fifty split moving forward?

00:38:05
Speaker 3: I think so, which makes it really hard for me to play either of them, and especially now we're you know, and you're only alive if you made the fantasy playoffs in regular fantasy formats. So I think that the only way that I would look at either of them would be if you need several flexes and if ten points will do it for you, because I kind of think you're probably looking at ten points roughly like we got sixteen and thirteen last week. I think that that's probably our best case scenario in terms of expectations for them, even with positive matchups, because they've got good matchups, But the fact that they're splitting them makes me think that I don't know if I can count on either one to really blow up, which is what you're looking for. I think Braylin. I would go with Braylin over Isaiah. But I mean, my biggest concern with them is the environment, which is that they're in a bad offense and they're running backs, and now they're running backs who are splitting time, like when you didn't have somebody splitting time. You've got Breese Hall thirty sixth in rush EPA on the season, twenty third in rushing yards, tied for twenty five, twenty fifth in yards per carry, just four rushing touchdowns, and that is with the fifth highest rush share in the league and his talent level, by the way, and now you've got Brailn and Isaiah splitting that. So if they're going to have success in fantasy, it's probably going to be in the passing game, as it has been for Breese this year with the third most targets on the season. So, but are they going to be in a script regularly We're I mean, yes, they're going to be down, I guess. But like, if we're looking at these matchups, we're like thinking that these are actually better than normal matchups for running backs, which historically probably means that they might be in the game. I don't know. I just I don't trust the offense in general, and I don't like running backs in bad offenses if you're not Chewbah Hobbard, who's been a total outlier in that department this year. Like Breeze scared me coming into the season because I thought that there was a better than average chance that they were going to be shitty. Yeah, Daryl Wilson, same story, and I think it's kind of played out that way.

00:40:13
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:40:13
Speaker 1: I mean I was actually looking earlier today at my prospect model stuff because you know, I profile all of these guys entering the league, and I liked both Braylan Allen and Isaiah Davis. I didn't remember slash realize that I actually because Brayln Allen had like unbelievably good age adjusted production, Like he was like nineteen years old at Wisconsin doing crazy things, or maybe even seventeen or something like that, Like he because he left high school early and he was still doing crazy things as a freshman. And so the model like naturally likes, loves age adjusted production. But his prospect score was only two or three points better than Isaiah Davis. Isaiah Davis was a very very good prospect too, And so I'm not like, now that we see this in the way that it's kind of formulated and come together, I can't say I'm like overly shocked that they're splitting the backfield the way that they're splitting it, because I think Isaiah Davis is a really good player too.

00:41:05
Speaker 2: It's just the like I had.

00:41:06
Speaker 1: I had a tweet back at the end of April during the draft where I was literally like sarcastically really upset with the Jets, you know, saying something along the lines of like yeah, you got you guys definitely needed both Brailean out and Isaiah Davis, while while already having Breeze Hall rostered, I was only mad because I liked both of them as prospects.

00:41:22
Speaker 3: But elsewhere, Yeah, yah, right right.

00:41:24
Speaker 1: But like I think we're seeing like I think they're both good, but I just don't know, Like you said, if the environment, you know, we got it, we're basically crossing our fingers that the matchups can drive their production.

00:41:34
Speaker 3: At that point, it's a one matchup driven yeah thing. Because again to Breeze Hall's point, like even and again that's rushing and we all know that we're talking about fantasy. And so like Rashad White, perfect example last year, like a terrible running back in terms of traditionally rushing stats, but it didn't matter because they're throwing him out of the backfield and so he's blown up in fantasy. Same can be true for Breece. But I just think in a perfect role, as you want you want both things. You want, you know, an environment to be one that you can control because otherwise there's so much volatility attached to it, And I just I don't like the Jets offense this year, so they scare me. What also I think pushes me towards Breilin over Isaiah is just the fact that they've used Brailin so much more this season than Isaiah. So but having access to both of them now they're both you know, on the field and getting equal time. But you know, prior to Breese not being on the field, Braylin was the guy that they went to. So that tells me that they probably prioritize him a little bit.

00:42:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. I had him at least ahead in the ranking. I think it was literally like back to back, but he was at least the one that, like, I'm giving the tiebreaker to just because of what you said, you like, they've they've used them previously. Another running back though that's in a bad offense, is Sincere McCormick, who now you know, Antonio Pierce came out. He said what he said, very favorable things about McCormick. McCormick's look good. You know, last week I had Matt Schoff on him. We were talking about this backfield a little bit, and we're both a little bit pessimistic because it is this backfield, right yea, And it's just been a freaking roller coaster all year with how they've been deploying these guys. Yeah, but you know, at the same time, I like, I wasn't very hand sameer white at all coming into the season. And then you know, Alexander Madison has kind of proved to us last year he's probably not the dude. So you know, I don't think that we should be like super shocked that we have a random UDFA from two years ago stepping in and doing well. And I actually looked at my prospect model from two years ago and realized, like kind of had some good numbers like when you know, like in college and stuff and the stuff that I look at. But my question, you like, how for real is Sincere McCormick and do you think that he's someone that folks can rely on, you know, even more than an Isaiah Davis, Braylan Allen down the stretch and in the playoffs, I.

00:43:49
Speaker 3: Would rather play him than Braylin or Davis down the stretch. And it's primarily volume driven, and I think that this is it's almost like narrative driven sometimes. I think some of this stuff happens where you're like, Okay, the Raiders are terrible. They have nothing left to play for. So what are their motivations down the stretch? And if you're Antonio Pierce, you know we saw was a mere white down the stretch last year probably earned him the job, right, Like, so give them the ball establish a like like, we are going to be gritty and we're going to run the ball, and we're going to be that team. And then that gives you some momentum heading into the off season where you feel like there's something to build with there and and reason for optimism. And I wouldn't be surprised if, in this current environment that they're in, if they don't go in that direction. Also, just give it to him regardless. And also, uh, it makes more sense to try something new because what if the new hits, you know, and if if it if it doesn't, then oh well because nothing has. But I also think, I mean it's a really small sample size where he's concerned, but he's been better than every other Las Vegas running back this year. He's the only one with a positive rush EPA per attempt. He again, this is small sample saide year, and he's the fourth highest in the league this year for someone who has started a game. His expected yards per carry four point one. He's exceeded that with five point five yards per carry. That's a good sign. His rush success rate is fifty six percent. That is clearly a sample size number, but comparatively speaking, we're looking at Alexander Madison is the next best running back on the team with thirty one percent. Granted, the one game he started was against the Bucks, and you're gonna have success against them, but then his scheduled the rest of the way like he could do it again. He's got the Falcons, he's got the Jags, he's got the Saints, and then he runs into the Chargers. But we don't have to worry about that because that's the last week that's after our season. So Sincere is somebody that I would feel, I mean, god, gross, that feels gross. Maybe it's just a flex Maybe maybe I'm not like confident confident about it, but but I think I'm more confident than I am about Braylon or Davis.

00:46:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I have him as like a high end RB three this week that could turn into more if he's able to find the end zone, that kind of that kind of play.

00:46:17
Speaker 3: You know.

00:46:17
Speaker 2: It's just the hardest thing though for me.

00:46:19
Speaker 1: This time of year is what you were talking about with just like the narrative driven stuff, because like I get questions constantly where people are like, you know, is this team going to shut this player down? Or is this and it's so hard to quantify that and it drives me nuts, right because it just we don't have because because even if you were to look back at data and say, oh, this team shut down this player when he was kind of hurt, how do you even go back and know the true motive for doing something like that? If you were to like do a grand study on something like that, where you're trying to see when these teams are actually shutting these guys down, and if the guy getting shut down has to do with maybe him not want to get hurt for future seasons and maybe there's a contract issue upcoming for them, or are they shutting them down because they're actually hurt. Like Breece Hall right now is a perfect example of this where where like we don't know, yeah, right, Like there's a very like intuitively, I think that just from like a team building and a human standpoint, shut the dude down, don't play him anymore this year? See what you have in these rookie running backs because you're not making the playoffs anyway, why would you not do that?

00:47:22
Speaker 2: Right?

00:47:23
Speaker 1: But then the other part of me, and I'm sure you see this having talked to so many NFL players in your history, it's like, that's not how they operate because they want to be out on the field and competing and playing because that's what they do, Like that is literally their job and they're not just gonna want to just give up.

00:47:40
Speaker 3: Right.

00:47:40
Speaker 1: So there's this really weird dichotomy that us as fantasy analysts who don't have access to the conversations that the front offices and coaching stabs are having, we kind of have to pars through and figure out. And I think that the McCormick situation, the Jets situation, you know, you have to at least factor that in when you're evaluating those backfields.

00:48:00
Speaker 3: Absolutely in some ways, though, I would say that I think that some of the narrative driven stuff is actually more predictive and easier to figure out then whether or not a coaching staff is going to approach a game in the manner in which you think is obvious. Yeah, Like we go through dig through all of these things, and there are trends that emerge. I don't even remember exactly who it was. I want to say it was the Panthers last year. But there was a an obvious running backs if you throw to the running back, like you know, are they having tons of success? This is the way that you attack this defense. And then there was an obvious smash spot. Well like we're like, this is it for this guy? And then the coach just didn't even they didn't go to him at all, like like no plays drawn up that way, And you're like, are you not looking at any data?

00:48:52
Speaker 2: Last week?

00:48:53
Speaker 3: Right?

00:48:53
Speaker 1: Jadan Reid putting a zero in a great slot matchup against Detroit and nothing, you know, and you can only you can only take it so far.

00:49:01
Speaker 3: So we do you know the process? And then that's one of the you know, process versus results in fantasy and one of the reasons that I like that you dig into your process so much. You're like, here is how I came to this conclusion. And that's the value that you're providing as a fantasy analyst. You're not just saying I like this guy with that guy, and this guy's gonna have a good week and that guy's gonna have a good. I think sometimes people are just too general about it in a way that I am as a consumer. I'm somebody that wants to learn. I want you to change my way of thinking, and you can only do that by telling me why you think the way that you do, not that you think the way you do. Like that will never do it for me. Yeah and so yeah, but so that and that's also selfishly the best way to protect yourself because all you did was say this is how teams are attacking this defense. They're doing it with a ton of success. I think he's going to probably have a good week, and then if the coach never does that, then that's on him, right, Yeah.

00:49:58
Speaker 1: I mean it's also it's also I tell people all the time, like I there are way more analysts that get like trolled more than I do. And I think it just has to do with the fact that, like, you know, I care deeply about not having hot takes and just throwing stuff out there and I would rather back it up and people people at least respect the backing it up part, you know, like I'm gonna be wrong and I'm gonna do a show at the end of the year talking about all the things that I got wrong because I want to go over the process, yep, as to why I got those things wrong, like why was I not higher on this player this year? Or you know, why why didn't I draft more running backs? And the second and third you know all that kind of stuff, Like I want to go over all of that because I want to be better next year.

00:50:38
Speaker 3: And that's that and that's the thing, and that's why I think what comes out with your content too. That is probably why you're not getting strolled. Also is that I can tell that you are as curious about why it didn't hit and you want to learn from that, and it all goes back to the process. You're not just like I was right, suck us, and like I was wrong, let's move past that. Like you, I want to talk about why you were wrong and what you were wrong about, because the process is the interesting part to you, as opposed to like let me just generate engagement or something like that, which just feels gross and everybody can see it's gross.

00:51:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, one more running back that I want to get to Chase Brown.

00:51:17
Speaker 2: Obviously.

00:51:18
Speaker 1: Look first four weeks, first month of the season, Zach Moss was getting a lot of work and then he goes on IR and since he's been on IR, Chase Brown has been a top like three running back in fantasy football. It's like he's in the same category as Bijon Robinson and even Saekwon Barkley to a degree. Do you think that he is going to be a long term solution for Cincinnati or would you be nervous? I mean this is kind of like dynasty centric in a way. Would you be nervous that they're going to add to that room and maybe hurt his volume moving forward?

00:51:49
Speaker 3: How far away are we from paying him?

00:51:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is his second year, so'd be he's still on his rookie deal for two more years after this.

00:51:56
Speaker 3: Okay, So then I'm not worried about it from a fantasy standpoint because I think what we've seen so far, I feel comfortable with him in fantasy. I feel comfortable with him being the guy there in the backfield. The one thing that I will say that it's just on my radar is kind of a little bit Rashad Whitey, is that the rushing numbers are not particularly impressive advanced or otherwise. He's twenty sixth than rushing yards per game, he's twenty fourth in yards per carry. I think it's obvious that his value to us and them is primarily in the passing game. The Bengals have the third highest pass rate in the league this year because they're losing, which is so weird. But so I bring all of this up because and I don't know if the Bengals would. I don't know how they look at any of this information, but it kind of makes me think like that he might be a guy that isn't worth the big contract. So if he becomes a guy who's looking for a new deal and wants to move to the top of the market, then may this is a guy that could come back to bite them in that department. I think you need to prove that you can really do both in order to dominate a backfield for the long term and be worth a big contract. Yeah, so that's my only concern about that, I think for the long haul is that they could look at that if those numbers don't go up next year and say like, we're we're not going to pay him, and then he goes elsewhere.

00:53:29
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:53:29
Speaker 1: I think I think it's gonna be interesting to see how like fantasy managers react to Chase Brown too, because if the expectation is that he's going to be this, I think that's probably a little bit foolish, Like if he's gonna be like I'm talking like top three running back in fantasy football type because like you said, Cincinnati, like the setup right now similar to the setup in Philadelphia for Saquan quite literally perfect for both of those situations. Right now, we're like, you know, Philly's been the run heaviest team in football, and the only thing that's not gone Saquan's way is the fact that it's push push still exists, right But but but with Cincinnati, the pass rates out of control, the defense can stop a soul and so you know that that naturally because obviously receiving numbers and passing game numbers and receptions are gonna inflate a guy's total a little bit. So I do think that, like, if the expectation is that he's a first round pick in fantasy next year, if that's what the expectation is, probably a little bit too much. But I yeah, I mean, like, I think you're right, Like there's a very real chance that Chase Brown is just at least in the short term, you know, as they kind of revamp the defense and fix and and try to figure out what's gonna happen with like t Higgins and stuff like if they just say let's just ride him, let's just go with.

00:54:39
Speaker 3: Them, he does have the like positively. And again we talked about the fact that they're not running the ball as much, you know, this year, as they maybe otherwise would because the offense is good. So it's just that the defense is allowing points. That's kind of flipping into it. It's an interesting situation because usually we're looking at bad offenses and they're passing a lot to play catch up, right, And it's partially because the offense is crappy too. So it's a really weird, sort of anomalist situation for a running back. I think the one positive that it will point to us in fantasy is that he has the second highest rush share in the league. Yeah yeah, so I mean you've got third most targets, you've got second most rush share. Like, the environment is very bell Cowie, and so if you are going to just look at the offense in general, assuming they figure out something with Tea and or Chase, I think I'm kind of being swayed to the to the trade chase and get a ton of just draft capital so that you can find his replacement. There you already have Tea and you can fix some of the holes in the defense, but neither here nor there. Like I'm assuming at least one of them is still going to be there in the future, like if Burrows there, I'm assuming that the offense will continue to be good, that the team will get better, that they'll fix what has ailed them this season, and so I'd be a good environment for Chase Brown. I just I'm not one hundred percent sure that, like I'm ready to go all in, push all my chips in because of the rushing component and just not having seen it.

00:56:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it makes sense.

00:56:12
Speaker 1: Two quarterbacks, and I want to talk about really quick before we head out, But Patrick Mahomes has not been Patrick Mahomes from a fantasy perspective, I guess you could probably say a real life perspective too, even like from an EPA standpoint and stuff like that. Do you think that he is going to be trustworthy in the fantasy playoffs? And I'll also follow that up with Jordan Love, who's not putting up very fantastic fantasy numbers. Either, are you trusting either of these guys as QB ones for your team in the playoffs?

00:56:41
Speaker 3: Tak him one at a time. I think Mahomes probably not. He's only been a top twelve quarterback I think four times this season, and I think he's been top five two times. Yeah, and those two times were against obviously bad defenses. It was like Carolina and somebody else that was, you know, like an obvious if you can't do it now, you're never going to do it. From a fantasy standpoint, he only really has one of those kinds of matchups down the stretch. He's got Houston in week sixteen, Pittsburgh in Week seventeen is tough Cleveland, He'll probably finish middle of the pack. I think we're probably going to continue to see just based on schedule what we've seen from him this year, which is more of like QB fifteen sixteen, you know, he's going to be just outside that top twelve as my guess. And I went I went back and I looked at last year in the fantasy playoffs, because we all know that. I mean, there's certainly part of it is they're doing enough to win. They have enough experience that they know what enough is what it looks like. The success rate is really high for the Chiefs, So they're operating, they're off it. It's just not explosive. So they are consistently working their way down the field. Nothing is sexy from a statistical standpoint, but obviously they're putting themselves in a position to benefit from the lucky bounces they are creating. They're the perfect example of they're creating their own luck.

00:58:09
Speaker 2: I think.

00:58:10
Speaker 3: But I looked at last year because we also know that he like turns it on right and they're probably gonna win the super Bowl, even though it makes no sense this year. But during the fantasy playoffs last year, he averaged sixteen points per game. It was the nineteenth best quarterback in terms of points per game in that timeframe. And he was incredible, like he was, you know, doing from a from a football standpoint. He was Patrick Mahomes and all I and so, and it still didn't trans translate to fantasy points for us. So I think that's probably what we're looking at.

00:58:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, what about Jordan loved them?

00:58:44
Speaker 3: Jordan is so confusing to me because so last year in terms of like advanced metrics you look at like there's a clear first half, second half part of the season where in terms of EPA and CPOE and all that kind of stuff. Yeah, he was not good in the first half, a lot of turnover whereth he plays like. It was like you could almost see just statistically looking at the numbers, you could see him figuring out how to play quarterback, right like, what can I get away with what doesn't work? I'm developing a rhythm with my pass catchers. Second half of the season it clicked. He figured it out and he went on a heater and second half of the season he was like in terms of EPA, like just through the roof, and then that brought the offense through the roof. Well this year, weirdly, that's kind of that's been the story. Also, it's like a first half second half so far were the first half, but this year it feels different. First half he was banged up, and so all of those advanced stats are kind of like in the same place that they were last year. You know, I don't know the numbers off the top of my head, but like I'm guessing it was probably around like twenty or something like that. That's where he bring, and then second half of the season he's like up in the upper right quadrant with all of the good quarterbacks, and I'm like, what the fuck, wouldn't that happen right right right? But it's not. It's not happening in a way that leads to fantasy points for us this year. Yeah, so I kind of think that. I think I think you feel the same way about Jordan Love as I do about Patrick Mahomes in terms of where to put him, Like, yeah, because he's been playing pretty well, but it just isn't.

01:00:13
Speaker 2: Just a bad environment.

01:00:14
Speaker 3: We're not seeing his name. They're clearly trying to run the ball a lot this year. Oh yeah, they've been.

01:00:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, they've been below expectation and password over expected for six straight weeks. And I'm talking like well below at this point, like like minus twelve percent type numbers down the stretch.

01:00:29
Speaker 3: So and they've been able to do that and it's going so well. I don't necessarily expect that to change, yea in the fantasy, Like, you know, you get to the playoffs now you just got to do whatever the defense gives you, and who knows, that's all up for grabs. I wouldn't even try to predict script when it comes to a playoff matchup against a good team. But for now we kind of know who they're playing, and I don't know and I'm not like, I'm not confident plugging him in as a QB one. How do you feel?

01:00:59
Speaker 2: Not great?

01:01:00
Speaker 1: Just you know, for the perspective, I mean, when when teams are that run heavy, like they've been dead last in uh neutral script pass rate this season, you know, even if like other formulas that look at pass rate overexpected, they've been bottom five and then they've been bottom three and overall.

01:01:18
Speaker 2: Pass rate this year.

01:01:19
Speaker 1: And when you have pass rates like that, cause like, like touchdowns are going to drive quarterback production at the end of the day, right, like more so than than other positions too, especially in like full PPR where you're getting points per reception. And so when you have a run heavy script, even if your offense is putting up twenty five to thirty points in a game, when you have a run heavy script and run heavy game plan, that just means that those touchdowns are naturally going to come on the ground more frequently than they will come through the air whenever you're a run heavy team. And so That's why Josh Jacobs over the last month and a half has been a completely different fantasy back compared to the front half of the season because the front half of the season, yeah, Jordan Love was a little bit banged up and they had Malik Willison there and stuff. But the front half of the season was also they were a more pass heavy team and that actually did not benefit Jacobs from a touchdown scoring standpoint. And now Jacobs has been on this heater, you know, scoring touchdowns. That's the difference. Like that, that is why Josh Jacobs has been doing. You know, he's been great. I'm not taking that away, but I'm saying, like the reason that his fantasy uh you know, numbers have just gotten you know, he went from being like more of like an RB two type to a very clear RB one is because of the way that they're operating that offense, and they've just that's their identity now. I think last week it was to some somewhat of a detriment against Detroit because they you know, didn't necessarily like the turnovers really helped shorten the field for them and stuff, and like they had really advantage of situations like they they should have won that game, Like, realistically, there were a lot of reasons why they should have gotten a w in that game. I think that them kind of being stubborn in the way that they were operating the offense is a reason why they you know, you can look at their EPA numbers and their success rate like they were they were still good on the ground, but you still are going to create more of those bigger plays, a splash plays obviously through the air versus on the ground, and they just didn't have that. And the fact that they were so stubborn last week in that huge game doesn't make me feel very confident about how they're going to change things up and switch things up in favor of Jordan Love, you know in weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen.

01:03:18
Speaker 3: That's an interesting point. And then because I was even going to say, like once they get to the regular playoffs, which I know is irrelevent for a fantasy conversation, that I think that the fact that the advanced numbers sell us that he is playing better than he did earlier in the year, whether he's getting the opportunity to throw the ball if they asked him to, I think the pass catchers are you know, good enough? And they have like a variety of them right in ways that we help and I mean that we hate in fantasy exactly because who freaking knows which week it is for any of these guys. But that makes them kind of a tricky out. I think, yeah, that they could go in either way direction in the playoffs, but I think that what you bring up is a really good point about whether or not they're going to be stubborn about that. And that's I mean, that's the inherent problem with teams that want to build around the run game, now, is that just like, so a great running back is going to pick up six yards of carry, Go look at average numbers per catch, Yeah, just go look at them, and so like so you're gonna pick up fifteen or six, Like then this is the best guy in the league, you know. Like it's just the goal is to move the ball, right Like, so take three shots at that and you're probably gonna move the ball further. I mean, it's just it's a numbers game. Whether you want it to be or not, it is.

01:04:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, teams just love to establish it. One last question before I let you go. Yeah, one player that you think could help fantasy managers out in the playoffs.

01:04:50
Speaker 3: Who is a guy, Well, this guy's helped people all season long. It's been weird in the last couple of weeks, and I think people might be a little bit scourred of him. And I don't think that they should mean that's Chuba Hubbard. Oh yeah, Cuba Hubbard has a good schedule. Yeah, he might smash Jonathan Brooks is now out, like we at least like get the backfield back to ourselves, which so sad for Jonathan Brooks that that happened to your knee, but also selfishly in our space like I want Cuba. I want Chuba and only Cuba, and that's it. He's been so weird to me in terms of being like very good and like legitimately good. In all of the advanced stats, Cuba Hubbard's like top ten. I had to do a Pro Bowl voting thing for my other job for Suomer Sports, or we had to rank like our top six at each position and then we come up with our own Probol and I was like, am I gonna put Chuba on this list? And I did, because you know, he's had a great season, and yes, and I think that he might be a guy that you can ride to a degree, maybe more so than you would think.

01:05:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I like I think I think he's a full blown like RB one at least. I mean, it's so weird because running back is just so freaking deep right now and it's never been. Like I've been doing bast football analysis for twelve thirteen years now and it has quite literally, Like I'm talking like every week when I'm ranking, I have like twenty four to twenty five running backs that I'm like.

01:06:20
Speaker 2: He's fine, Like he's fine. I can use.

01:06:21
Speaker 1: I could put him in my RB one spot and I'd probably feel okay if I have good wide receivers.

01:06:25
Speaker 2: It's usually half.

01:06:27
Speaker 1: Of that this time of year, like we usually just don't have nearly as many running backs. I can't wait to dig in into all that, like during the off season doing studies about like how different the running back position was this year compared to other years and what that means and all that kind of stuff. It's just like that's the stuff that I just I get very very excited about. But yeah, like Cuba, I mean, my best Ball portfolio hates it because I leaned in on Jonathan Brooks more than Cuba there. But yeah, I mean, if he's getting the backfield to himself plus matchups, like you said, he's been very very good. Their offensive line isn't bad either. I mean I think that people just think that Carolina is just kind of like bad across the board, but the the offensive environment's gotten better. Yeah, I think that that's a good call. He could be a league winner this year.

01:07:07
Speaker 3: Talk about going back and checking your work. I need to go look at my bestball teams and figure out what the what, why where did I go wrong? Yes, because there are so many, so many of those teams that are like I have like two playable wide receivers, and how is that even possible that that's where we are? I mean I have a lot a lot of late round like last couple of rounds where I went in on two Patriots wide receivers just like betting, like oh, it's so late that you know, now one of them has to be their wide receiver one.

01:07:42
Speaker 1: And so I.

01:07:44
Speaker 3: Mean I mean or Jaylen Polk or like whatever, like I mean, we're like late round draft picks whatever, and now they're just wasted. They're just like sitting there. And I would sometimes take both of them and back to backgrounds like in the later rounds, just to be like again one of them, Like I'm just like full like darts at a dartboard. I don't know which one someone there has to emerge, and little did I know, it's gonna be Hunter fucking Henry. Yeah and like and not even really like So that's nine fantasy points a game, you know, like lately like still not that helpful, but anyway, so't won't do that again.

01:08:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I can't wait.

01:08:16
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be doing a recap because I did the Becoming a Best Ball bro series. I'm doing a recap with Rich Ryan at the end of the year. Once it's all done. People are asking, like, are you gonna be talking about it? Yes, I will talk about it. I'll get to it, I promise. I'm just waiting for the playoffs to finish and my brain to be able to kind of dissect and like sit down and see what went.

01:08:35
Speaker 2: Right, what went wrong?

01:08:36
Speaker 1: Most went wrong for my best Ball portfolio because I went pretty zero.

01:08:39
Speaker 2: RB heavy and best ball this year and that was not great.

01:08:43
Speaker 1: Fortunately I didn't do that in season long, but best Ball portfolio not as great. But Lindsay This was awesome. Thank you so much for hopping on talking shop a little bit. Let everyone know where they can find you and what you're working on.

01:08:56
Speaker 3: Lindsay Underscore Roads on X and Blue Sky, which yes, you know, if you if you enjoy people not yelling at you, I suggest you try that space right And yeah, So the podcasts are Fantasy Dirt, so Sports Illustrated Podcast excuse me, five days a week, and then the Sumer Sports Show one day a week. And I'm really looking forward to that one specifically as it pivots into the off season, because we'll be at Senior Bowl, will be at Shrimole, will be at Super Bowl, like having all of the like, now, let's rebuild these rosters and getting into the weeds of that. So, if you're a fantasy football fan, which obviously people watching you are, that's not a fantasy podcast at all, But I think that we'll be having conversations that will benefit fantasy managers who are trying to be predictive and figure out what the rosters might look like next year. Let's really smart people.

01:09:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, we all, we all pivot, we all, we're all kind of like season long fantasied out by the time the season ends, I can't wait. Like I grew up in Pittsburgh, I'm a Steelers fan, but I'm not.

01:09:57
Speaker 2: I don't.

01:09:58
Speaker 1: I've come to respect the game enough over the last you know, through doing this over the last handful of years, that I don't like hate the Ravens like I used to when I was little and stuff like that. But I'm excited to just be a fan for a little bit too and see them in the playoffs and hopefully they'll be able to make some noise. But as usual, everyone, you can find me on Twitter and I'm Blue Skies while at late round QB.

01:10:19
Speaker 2: As always, thanks for tuning in.