The Show: Kyle Pitts Tilt, Pass Funnel Defenses, and More

00:00:00
Speaker 1: You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Show, which originally aired yesterday on YouTube. If you'd like to catch it live, you can find it on the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel at one pm Eastern every Friday during this twenty twenty five season. That's on YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF. So, without further ado, here's this week's episode.

00:00:37
Speaker 2: Welcome in everybody to the Late Round and Fantasy Football Show. David Kitchen alongside JJ zachar Reeson and boy, what a day we have had. What a past twenty four hours we've had.

00:00:48
Speaker 3: JJ.

00:00:49
Speaker 1: Really, I'll tell you what. I'll tell you what. Man. I was in the middle of just an absolute tilt fest last night, an absolute tilt fest with that game, the way things went down. We'll talk about it in the news section. But you know what, this is fantasy football. This is what we come you signed up for. It's what we signed up for and what we've come to love. The one thing that always grounds me this time of year is to remember that only one team wins a fantasy championship. You know, when you're in a big tournament too, only one team is going to win that tournament. But man, it would be really nice in those best Ball streets to be able to just have a team in the final, you know, and just be able to sweat some of that.

00:01:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, it'd be nice to Like I was trying to explain this to my home league, you know, where their their normies. Was just trying to explain to them, like Best Ball, Like, hey, you spend the whole summer drafting these teams and talking about things, and literally the Thursday night game the first day of week fifteen, and you just feel like, oh, I'm dead.

00:01:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm ned. My team's dead. It's toast so tough.

00:01:59
Speaker 1: I mean, it is, it is. You know. It's one of those things too, where you sort of forget what you signed up for. I was having this, Yes, I was having this conversation with you earlier today where you're like, Okay, I advanced a lot of you know, I had. I had I advanced forty seven for those of you who didn't see on Twitter, like, I had I advanced forty seven of my one hundred and fifty million teams when expectations twenty five, right, So I had a good advance rate for these these millionaire maker teams, and uh, so when you see that, you're like, oh, well, well, certainly things will go well, but you have to remember the way that these are all situated and set up is that you're merely increasing your odds. It's not a guarantee that things will go a certain way. And unfortunately, only three of those forty seven had Kyle Pits, so, you know, which is not as bad as it could have been. Because I've seen others in the space who have forty plus teams that had no Kyle Pits. You know, it could have been really really bad. But yeah, I mean I wish I had like six Kyle Pits teams. That would be nice.

00:03:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, of course, But I mean one of the reasons why you don't have any Kyle Pitts teams is because he wasn't that great during the season.

00:03:09
Speaker 1: He was just fine. You know, he was a fine pick. He wasn't an amazing pick. And you know, we we can obviously talk about this when when we recap Thursday Night Football. But one of the toughest parts for me and why I was personally tilting, is that, like I try to like when I tilled, it's usually when I have like deep thought about stuff. It's not just like, oh, I'm facing Kyle Pitts and this sucks, you know, just period. It's more so like I think about the extension of why Kyle Pitts is doing what he's doing, and a big piece of that is Drake London being sidelined. And guess who has a lot of Drake London across all of my leagues and Best Ball leagues and touted him as someone to target in the draft guide and it was looking great. He was looking like a league winning type wide receiver before that injury. And he goes down and Kyle Pitts and now I can look at the data again when we talk about the news, but Kyle Pitts has seen an uptick in work with Drake London sidelined, and it's just sort of like this double whammy, just a gut punch where you know, you're excited about Drake London and week whatever eleven, you know, and things are trending in such the right direction, and then all of a sudden, you know, he goes down and Fantasy football happens, and then Kyle Pitts puts together one of the greatest tight end performances in the history of fantasy football period. I mean the best in our history since we've started playing. And that's that's just how it goes sometimes.

00:04:32
Speaker 3: Man.

00:04:33
Speaker 2: All Right, I will we will talk more about the Thursday and football game because there was other other like notable performances in that game as well. I mean, the Pitt's performance was just like legendary, like I mean since overshadows everything. Yeah, like two thousand and two or two thousand and one, like a long time since the tight end has done that what he did. So just a little bit of housekeeping today we had the Mailbag episode.

00:05:04
Speaker 3: Go listen to that. And also if.

00:05:07
Speaker 2: You have been in the Late Round Patreon, if you've been a Late Round discord, you know Subverted Down is a guy from Reddit who has been referenced many times and JJ he was today's Perspective episode, our guest.

00:05:25
Speaker 1: He was he was, I should I should add it was. It's been a kind of like a bit within the discord with Subverted Down because I do obviously I do defenk rankings. I don't do kicker rankings. Maybe that'll change next year with Godula on board, but uh so, I don't do kicker rankings, So people naturally go to Subverted Down because he does really great streaming, kicking stuff, kicker stuff, he has a model and all this kind of stuff, and then they would start citing like his defensive rankings, and then I had this fake like beef with Subverted Down in the discord, just joking around because I mean, I didn't know the guy. And so it's been cool because over the last few months we've connected. You know, I've seen him on Reddit plenty of times because I'm on Reddit and like to you know, talk to people and have conversations on there, and I've seen him plenty on there. And so the three of us were able to have a meeting like a month or two ago and got to know each other a little bit, and I was like, yo, dude, you've got to come on perspectives like this would be amazing to just have a great conversation with you about the models and like what goes into them and all that kind of stuff. And so he said yes graciously and we recorded it and it was his first ever podcast, which is sweet because I mean, it's it's awesome from my perspective that I was able to, you know, be that platform for him to get out there. You know in the podcasting streets because he's been doing such awesome work over on Reddit and on his site, subverted down dot com. So it's just been like a long time coming and like a really fun story for myself and the subscribers of Late Round, and it's just funny overall, and I'm in and so far. You know, I think that that people who have listened to it have really enjoyed it because it's just been like it's a really really nerdy. It's like a very nerdy episode.

00:07:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I enjoyed it.

00:07:14
Speaker 2: I enjoyed it, even though I'm not, you know, as nerdy as as you guys are. I enjoyed listening to it. And for his debut on the show that that was fun. Also, I just want to let people know that the schedule is changing a little bit. You know, we're going into the holidays. We are just gonna be winding down, focusing on like the key key points to get you to your Fantasy Championship.

00:07:39
Speaker 3: So things dwindling down just a little bit. Sign up for the newsletter.

00:07:43
Speaker 2: Though, if you haven't already, yeah, because we'll have plenty of stuff there.

00:07:47
Speaker 3: All right, JJ, are you ready? Let's do it? Are you sure, let's do it.

00:07:52
Speaker 1: Okay, Today's fantasy news.

00:07:58
Speaker 3: All right, let's start was a Thursday night football recap. I mean, this is just this game for me.

00:08:07
Speaker 2: I had a few Pits teams, but they weren't even in the playoffs.

00:08:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I had one of the teams that I was kind of sweating to get into the playoffs in the league has Pits and naturally, you know, this was the week that he that he did what he did.

00:08:21
Speaker 3: But you put you were playing against Pits.

00:08:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, the King's Classic League Andrew Cooper. Love love that I got to. Not only did I lose the bye on the last week because all my guys were on by and not only did I have the most points in the league throughout the season, but then the last week was so bad that I dropped into fourth from second, and I had some really bad beats throughout the year. And then I'm playing against Coop, and I love, I love Coop. So that's one opponent that I'm actually not that annoyed that I would lose to. Like, so if it was like Denny Carter or something, I'd actually be even more upset. But since it's Coop and Coop is cool. You know, I already took the L. It's already gonna happen.

00:09:00
Speaker 2: And uh, you think it's like emotional hedging, like in case you do win, it'll be it'll feel like this Marati let's come back.

00:09:07
Speaker 1: But he scored forty eight PPR points or forty five however many PPR points. It's not. There's no emotional hedging when you face a random double digit round tight end in a fourteen team league with deep rosters who scores forty plus PPR points. There's no emotional hedging there. You're just being realistic. I took the y L. It's done, it's over, it's.

00:09:27
Speaker 2: Over all right, it pits I mean insane, insane week.

00:09:32
Speaker 3: But Bjon also good week, Mike good. Yeah.

00:09:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was a it was a really like interesting game realistically where I mean the the Buccaneers deserve to lose that game the way they played defensively. Yeah, and you know, I thought that Kirk Cousins looked probably the sharpest that he's looked since, you know, coming and becoming starter, uh, since Michael Pennock's injury. Obviously, Kyle Pitts was just finding areas in these like short parts of the field. There were just no defenders even close to him. And then obviously he was this red zone threat for them, which has not been the case for Kyle Pitts throughout his career. But naturally he scores three touchdowns. So the Falcons offense, I thought, you know, look good against a bad defense. And then on the buck side, I think there's some interesting storylines here. You know, people were tilting a mecha Buka a little bit in the discord last night. I get it, but I think a four for sixty four line is not It is pretty much what you would expect from a projection standpoint, just that he didn't find the end zone. And look, the one thing I actually talked to you about this too, But the one thing that I think that people should wrap their heads around when they look at like a projection and you know, maybe you can allude you can understand this a little bit too if you listen to me and subverted on talk. But touchdowns are a binary event when they actually happened, right, you either scored or you didn't score in a game, and that's either zero points from touchdowns or six or twelve or eighteen points from touch downs. And so when a guy doesn't score a touchdown, he's not getting those six points. But when we're projecting a touchdown or projecting something, he might have point three five touchdowns that he's projected for and so that projection might be thirteen PPR points and then he scores ten and a half and you're like, oh, he underperform, but he didn't find the end zone. Like that's that's one of the main reasons, you know, that's why we look at target share. We look at these things and these indicators of what could come in the future for a touchdown score. And so, you know, I think Abuca was fine. And there were some really bad throws from Baker to Abuca last night, but it wasn't as bad as it's been, you know, over over the last handful of weeks. So it was it was encouraging enough. I thought Mike Evans looked like himself. You know, I wish I was more aggressive in ranking him because I was thinking earlier in the week I was going to be and then there was that report that he was going to be more on more of a snap count. Yeah, and so you know I adjusted a little bit based on that, which was you know, a mistake in hindsight, because he had, you know, a great game. And that's the thing too, is that like it's a colorbone injury, it wasn't. It wasn't like a knee injury or him coming off in acl or something. So those kinds of injuries I'm usually not as concerned about. And I think Evans is gonna be like a wide receiver two type, you know, low end two maybe rest of season. And then you know, Baker looked fine. He hasn't really been himself since Week four or five. U you know, Chris Godwin got kind of involved. We saw Jayleen McMillan get kind of involved. So I think the pecking order is gonna be Evans, Abuka, Godwin, McMillan. And then the backfield is also interesting, where we saw Sean Tucker get a lot of green zone work, which you know, I'm I'd be a little bit concerned if I if I had Bucky Irving. With that being said, you know, Irving still dominated ground game touches for the most part. I think he had like an eighty or like a in the seventies high seventies percent running back rush are you know, he saw some looks through the air, And I do wonder if next week, because they play Carol and it's such a big game for both teams, if they if they just really ride Bucky Irving because he's the best and most talented, you know running back they have in that backfield.

00:13:10
Speaker 2: Can I ask you about the Bijon Robinson Tyler Algier shares, like why yesterday, Like was it so pronounced you had Bijon with nineteen carries, Algier with only two carries.

00:13:27
Speaker 3: One was late in the game.

00:13:28
Speaker 1: I don't know, honestly, It's just like they just waited till our fantasy playoffs were like starting, and they're like, okay, yeah, I mean I think I think Bijon was playing really really well, and they you know, coaches have these like they go off vibes and that's what the hot hand approach is all about, right, and so yeah, I mean, like this is the really frustrating part of being a fantasy analyst and trying to predict this stuff is that, you know, running back usage comes down to coaching decisions. There's some teams where that running back usage is at least consistent, so you know, once once week three or four hits, we kind of know how the backfield is going to be split for the most part. But then there's some backfields, you know, to a degree Atlanta, but to an even stronger degree Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's a backfield where you know, it could be Kenneth Gainwell one week and then Jalen Warren could have an eighty percent running back rush are the next week. It's just it's it's completely you know, they'll say that it's just due to the game flow of that particular game, but I call that kind of BS because they can control what they want to control. I mean, they're they're coordinating these offenses. So yeah, I mean that's just that's just the way that it goes with this game.

00:14:34
Speaker 2: All right, let's get onto some other news items. No, Marvin Harrison Junior.

00:14:39
Speaker 3: Ah shucks. Everyone is disappointed.

00:14:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, like how many. It's really strange to me, like, were there, Like I've never talked to anyone who was like overweight on Marvin Harrison Junior this year.

00:14:53
Speaker 3: You know.

00:14:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just think it's like people enjoy like he's just he was so frustrating to start and the same thing with like the if you think about the beginning of the season, we were thinking that Kyler to IMHJ and now it's completely flipped on its head where we're one of those guys to be out so that we can get Jacoby Brissett to Michael Wilson.

00:15:16
Speaker 1: I had that trend this week that I do think was kind of interesting and hopefully it came across and you guys thought it was interesting. But essentially like Jacoby Brissette seems to be locking in on what whoever the top wide receiver is because when Marvin Harrison Junior was healthy with Brissett, Marvin Rison Junior was seeing the highest first retarget chairs of his season, you know, even when he like higher than what they were with Kyler Murray, which tells me that Brissette is number one locking in on his top receiver. Number two maybe not going through his progressions the same way that Kyler would. And then number three, I think that that Jacoby Brissett's a more aggressive thrower and he'll throw into those tight windows a little bit more than Kyler Murray would. Now this week kind of tough. I mean, they get Houston, so I don't know exactly how well it's going to go, but tell you this, if I had Michael Wilson. I would have a very hard time benching Michael Wilson just based on what he's done. You know, I think matchups can can only go so far. You got to look at at usage first and foremost, and he's almost a lock to see a thirty percent target share and then offense without Marvin Harrison Jr. So if you have Michael Wilson, I think you should be in your lineup.

00:16:21
Speaker 3: All right, do you know what this one? This next one is.

00:16:27
Speaker 1: So it says q R s U V w y Z. Yeah qure s t UV you missed, you missed the T so no T no T Higgins, Yeah you got it? Yeah, uh yeah, no T Higgins this week. So Jamar Chase to the moon.

00:16:46
Speaker 3: You know.

00:16:46
Speaker 1: You know it's funny speaking of that matchup that I have with with Coop, all three guys that we've talked about so far he hasn't his on his roster is Jamar Chase, Michael Wilson, and Kyle Pitts. So I'm I am. That's another reason why I am. Yeah, But yeah, no T Higgins. I would expect Jamar Chase to see a hefty target share. You know, it's really important to not just take what we saw the last time these guys played and just say this is how it's going to go this this time. You know, Mitchell Tinsley the last time they played, had nine targets in that game on like a sixty four percent route share. Andre Yosibosh I think is the guy that I'd still play over Tinsley just because the route share is a little bit more stable. And then Mike Kasiki is is one that you know, he's now a more reliable streamer. I had tea in my last rankings update in and Gasiki fell to like tight end twenty or something even even lower than that because his route share is not strong. I mean it's only like forty to fifty percent. It's it's not Mike Kasiki is not out there because they have no a fan. They have these other tight ends. Mikeasiki's not out there running tons and tons of routes, and so what you need is that when he is running routes to have a high targets per out run rate, and without T Higgins, that's going to improve naturally. So I do think that he can be a a more reliable streamer this week than he would be you know, if t Higgins were playing.

00:18:05
Speaker 2: All right, I got the alerts this morning. No Justin Fields, No Tyrod Taylor. They're gonna let Brady Cook. Brady Cook gonna be the starting quarterback for the New York Jets this week.

00:18:20
Speaker 1: Jet JJ Yeah. I mean my response to that is, well, also, Mason Taylor's out in that gu Yeah. So I'm hoping cross your fingers for Breeze Hall Love, That's what I'm gonna say, because Breecee has oddly had really low target shairs ever since Braylan Allen went down. And it's bizarre because you would think, oh, he's gonna be on the field more, he'll see more looks through the air. Hasn't really been the case because he had he was playing like a very specific role for and he had like more first red targets back then, and things have just changed in that offense. But no Mason Taylor in this game. Not that Mason Taylor was like, you know, lighting up the world, but like there's just no one in that offense to rely on outside of like an eighty Mitchell, maybe a John MATCHI, but I I think that that Breise Hall, you know, could hopefully it's a really tough It's not a really tough matchup, but it's a tougher matchup. I think he could get by by just seeing like seven or eight targets of things, you know, kind of go in his favor.

00:19:21
Speaker 2: All right, See Lamb is cleared. So I was pleasantly surprised by this. Uh he gets to play this week.

00:19:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the the extra rest helped, right, that's what. Yes, what mileageaction is yea extra rest for the win. Got a start him this week, even though it's a tough matchup. I think Minnesota is the worst matchup by justin points allowed to wide receivers this year, a little bit of a ding to George Pickens as well. But like I talked about in the ten Trend show, you know, Dallas has been a team that has really done well against a tough schedule, passing schedule, and so you know they still have the high implied team total. I like both sides of this game. Like I I think Justin Jefferson is just underrated this week. You know, I think JJ McCarthy's a reasonable streamer if Jordan Addison plays, he's got this achilles injury. But if Jordan Addison goes. I think he's a great sleeper. It could, you know, like we should be interested in any game that the Dallas Cowboys are playing in because they're they're usually relatively high scoring.

00:20:24
Speaker 2: All right, no Nick Chubb at practice today? We're going all in on.

00:20:28
Speaker 1: Oh I didn't see that report. Is it official that Nick Chubb did not practice today?

00:20:33
Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure now you're.

00:20:34
Speaker 1: Double checking, because.

00:20:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I have been checking. Yeah, Texans Friday practice, No Nick Chubb. Aaron Wilson tweeted that.

00:20:41
Speaker 1: Well, I need a lot of Woody. I'm very excited for that. I'm gonna say, like, I think ninety running back rush share is in play for what he marks. He saw that last week against Kansas City. Over his last like five or six we're going to talk about this on the main event, but over his last like five or six games, he's averaging almost twenty rush at times per game. And now he gets Arizona, great matchup. You gotta play what he marks this week.

00:21:08
Speaker 3: Okay, now for this one, Philip Rivers.

00:21:15
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers, I.

00:21:16
Speaker 2: Mean again, then Kyle Pitts sing and it makes me a little bit mad because it's just overshadowing everything in the fantasy football world. This was the story earlier this week.

00:21:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, do you think.

00:21:27
Speaker 3: He starts this week?

00:21:28
Speaker 1: Yeah? I do. I think he's gonna play. I think he's gonna play against one of the toughest defenses in football. And what like I said in the mailbag this week, if I take a stand and I say, as an analyst, I'm gonna be lower on Indianapolis than we were before or just in general, like, I'm not gonna be bullish on this Colts offense and a forty four year old Philip Rivers who hasn't played in almost five years, if he's the one who comes in and he's awesome, I'll bet against that all day long. Of course, just rationally and logically. I'm gonna root for him, though, because the story itself is gonna be made out of It is gonna be made into a movie if they make the plays, you know, like I want to. I want to see this thing go down. But man, I mean, he's heftier than he was before.

00:22:16
Speaker 3: He uh, aren't we all?

00:22:18
Speaker 1: So Yeah, yeah, five years in your middle age, you're gonna gain a little lb. You know, some LB's, But yeah, like I'm I'm excited to see what this looks like and how this goes down that they're probably gonna feed Jonathan Taylor. And like I kind of talked about on the live stream this week for for patrons, I kind of whenever we see a player like this step in where I'm worried about arm strength, I'm worried about them getting the ball down the field, just go by a dot and kind of work your way down as to who would see worse work. So like Alex Pierce I'm really concerned about than Michael Pittman, you know, and then it would be maybe a Josh Downs, Tyler Warren and then Jonathan Taylor because they can still dump it off to him and he can still be okay enough. But Taylor is no longer a top five running back rest of season in my opinion, just based on schedule, based on this, if we see something this week from Rivers, great we can feel better. But look, I'm just saying based on sentiment, because you're not making moves right now. You know you're playing Jonathan Taylor if you have him, and you're not making any moves. I'm just saying, like, just be realistic and probably temper expectations.

00:23:19
Speaker 2: Okay, report today, this not really any groundbreaking news, but the the Chargers planning used the hot hand for running back this week, So I put hot hamp But you got to Hampton and.

00:23:34
Speaker 3: Vidal this week? What are you doing with them?

00:23:37
Speaker 1: I'm really not interested in either of them because the matchup's not that great. Like, for instance, I'm playing Woody Marks pretty confidently over Marion Hampton in a league this week, and.

00:23:46
Speaker 3: I'm actually crazy yeah, oh.

00:23:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean like comfortably over Marion Hampton. The one that I that's if here is DeAndre Swift. But I feel I feel okay about DeAndre Swift over Hampton too, just because you know, eleveland's been a little bit worse against the run of late and they're playing a tough Chiefs team that absolutely needs a win. A little bit worried about that. I thought Hampton looked good. The thing that was bad was the pass pro stuff, and that's that's the issue with him, you know, maybe staying on the field more. And Kamani Videll has been great throughout the second half of the season or basically since Hampton went down. So I say, what even is hot hand? Just because it's so subjective and it's just so there's just no like, it's just a vibes bas thing on how that coach is feeling at that moment. But yeah, I would say if I were projecting this, I think Hampton sees sixty sixty five percent of the team's running back Rushes Videll gets the rest, and then maybe the snap shares is more fifty fifty because Videl will be out on the field and more of those long, down and distant snaps.

00:24:48
Speaker 2: All Right, this one just came out since we recorded, since we started recording the show.

00:24:52
Speaker 3: In Djokui and Samson elt this week for the Browns.

00:24:57
Speaker 1: My response is that's massive for Quinnjahn Judkins. Massive.

00:25:01
Speaker 3: Ir.

00:25:03
Speaker 1: Yes, massive for Judkins. The one area where he needs to get more work is as a pass catcher, and so Jerome Ford out already, he's on IR. Dylan Samson is the backup who has played plenty of pass catching. You know, has gotten that and played that role throughout the season. I mentioned this in the Sleeper Show, but he's played basically twice as many two minute snaps and down in distance snaps as Quinn show Judkins. So he was going to step in and get more of that work for the Browns, and this is a negative gamescript waiting to happen against Chicago. I mean, hypothetically speaking, it's a good matchup too, I think Judkins. I mean, I'm gonna move Judkins up in my rankings just based on the fact that this could be the one of those weeks where he sees like a seventy percent routehare. Hypothetically like it very very well can happen today's data.

00:25:57
Speaker 2: All right, let's get on to today's data, and you've got some yards allowed stats.

00:26:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know. I just thought this could maybe be interesting for people as they're making decisions for you know, who to start over the next couple of weeks. Now that we have fifteen or fourteen weeks of data, So basically what I'm looking at here is this is by team defense adjusted passing yards allowed. So all this does is takes passing yards, It looks at their opponent, and it finds the delta between their opponent's typical rate and what they've allowed. So, for instance, you know, the Bengals this year have allowed forty five point seven more passing yards to their opponents through the air. Obviously to quarterbacks only quarterbacks, than what those opponents season long average has been. So the Bengals the Cowboys are number one, forty eight point eight they've allowed. So let's say a player average two hundred passing yards per game he went up against Dallas, we would expect him to throw for two hundred and forty eight point eight passing yards, which is not insignificant because more passing yards doesn't just mean oh two more fantasy points. It means more potential for touchdowns than such. Right, And then on top of that, I look at adjusted pass rate allowed, which is not pass rate over expected. That's a different metric. Adjusted pass rate allowed says, Okay, when a team faces this defense, what does that offense look like from a pass rate perspective? Like how much does their pass rate change in terms of just raw percentage points from a normal game to a game against that defense. Now, for instance, you know, when a team faces a good team, their pass rate's probably going to increase because of game script, because they're trailing and they're trying to come back, all that kind of stuff. So you see a team like New Orleans, a team like Minnesota teams against when they face those teams, they're running the ball a lot more because those teams have been losing throughout the year. And also personnel is going to dictate that too, because Minnesota secondary has been playing well. But what I did was I kind of had another call, added another column and just called it pass funnels. And I just looked at these two metrics and I said, Okay, what teams are allowing more passing yards adjusted ranked opponent and what teams are allowing higher pass rates when adjusted for strength of opponent. Those teams are sort of the pass funnels that we have in the NFL right now, where when an offense faces them, they're going to throw the ball a lot more. So. We have Baltimore as one, we have Dallas as an obvious one. Indianapolis has been one. Sauce Gardner obviously has been banged up. Jacksonville has been one where they're adjusted passing yards allowed isn't that much over expected, but the teams are throwing a lot against jams.

00:28:30
Speaker 4: Jed that was that one kind of Well, they've also been pretty good against the run, and they and you look at the adjusted numbers allowed to running backs this year, they've been pretty good against running backs, but they it's mostly because they just allow.

00:28:43
Speaker 1: Like teams are throwing the ball against them so much. And then you look at New England as kind of a pass funnel. Pittsburgh is definitely a pass funnel because they're allowing about thirty five yards over expected and two point seven percent increase in pass rate. San Francisco kind of a pass funnel. And then last night you saw this doesn't even include last night's data, but Tampa Bay a very obvious pass funnel, allowing twenty two passing yards from quarterbacks over expected and a bump in about four percentage points in pass rate. So you know, those two things obviously go hand in hand. You know, like there's gonna be more passing yards when there's more pass attempts. But you know, sometimes you're gonna see some fluky stuff because teams are just really like Cincinnati, for instance, they're just when teams face Cincinnati, they're actually more run heavy than they are in a typical game. But Cincinnati is still allowing forty six passing yards over expected because they're so inefficient defensively, you know, but when you can combine volume and just overall, you know, effectiveness, that's when you get one of those past funnel defenses.

00:29:44
Speaker 3: Cool, let's get on to the main event.

00:29:46
Speaker 1: It's the late round, main event, all right.

00:29:51
Speaker 3: These are players as you like.

00:29:53
Speaker 2: More of the consensus this week, starting with Grandma Golf Jared Golf. This is not a surprise though, because you mentioned earlier Golf after I forget what game it was, but he had like five games.

00:30:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, he had like six or seven games the end of the season.

00:30:07
Speaker 3: That we're all on a dome in a dome.

00:30:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I really do favor dome environments and domed environments in my rankings and stuff, so it's not a huge surprise. I also look at game total and team total, and this game could be higher scoring twenty four and a half point implied team total for the Lions. The Rams are are basically an average opponent for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. Like I said, it's indoors. He's been. He's had one game under sixteen points over his last six and that one game was that outdoor game against Philadelphia when that offense just looked absolutely horrific. So I like Golf this week. You know, I'm only three spots. I had a consensus, but I think that's enough to call him out.

00:30:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, there are some good games this week.

00:30:48
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, this game has fifty four and a half total, Like, that's gonna be a solid game, especially if I don't know you're going up against someone like you know a.

00:31:01
Speaker 1: Lot of bet I don't have any rams on that team.

00:31:03
Speaker 3: So yeah, all right, next guy. We've already talked about what he marks.

00:31:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have him three spots ahead. I haven't met as a fringe ARBI one right now, and I think you could even bump him up a little bit more it people don't like what he marks because he's not been that effective on the ground and he's really not meant for this role in my opinion, just based on his like overall prospect profile. With that being said, he's gonna probably get a lot of this work. Al A Goomba walle will mix in no doubt, and and my I do have some fear that there's going to be you know, some of Goomble Walley stealing some some work through the air, because you know, when you get this rotation of running backs, like when you when you when one guy's out, another guy steps in. Sometimes that guy who's stepping in we saw this in Arizona all year long. Sometimes the guy who's stepping in, you know, will then lose the more valuable touches and fantasy, which is the pass catching stuff, right just because they want to give him a break. And the guy who happens to be the third stringer is good in that kind of role. And that's what we have in Gumballe. But I haven't met RB fourteen this week. What he marks consensus is about three spots lower. Love this match up against Arizona. They were just absolutely destroyed by the Rams last week. Multiple top ten performances allowed to running backs. It's just one of the best matchups by adjusted points allowed to running backs. So what he marks I think should be in most people's lineups this week.

00:32:20
Speaker 2: I felt bad for him last and I've got a lot of woody, but I felt bad for him last week, all those inside rushes like it was, and then like for every one his body Yeah, after everyone, he's like getting up.

00:32:33
Speaker 3: I'm like, is he gonna make it?

00:32:34
Speaker 1: Yeah? You know who. It kind of reminds me. I only remember this because I sent a gift about this whenever he was just getting crushed and injured all the time. But Matt Brida used to do this for San Francisco where he would just get destroyed and then he'd come back and he'd keep going. And there's always a point in every game when you watch what he marks where he leaves the game with an injury and then he comes back and he you know, gives you at least some sort of usability.

00:33:00
Speaker 3: Is breed it with the Vikings as well.

00:33:03
Speaker 1: Brita played for Miami. I know that he played for a little bit. I think he played for the Bills.

00:33:08
Speaker 3: Bills, yeah, yeah, okay, and the Giants.

00:33:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, he did the Giants at the end of his career. Yeah.

00:33:17
Speaker 2: You got Stefan Diggs the last time that they played Buffalo.

00:33:22
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying.

00:33:23
Speaker 3: It was personal.

00:33:24
Speaker 1: It was personal, and this is a huge game. The Stefan dig stuff is really difficult. I'll be completely honest. Diggs is so hard speaking of like coaches just making a choice, right, Ye. Diggs over the last two games has had rout chairs of fifty four sixty one percent. Right, It's just it's just been not great. His yards para run is still strong, but if he has that kind of rout share again this week, it's probably not going to be very pretty, but we saw him crush Buffalo last time. This is a huge game between these two teams. I mean massive, massive game, So I would imagine maybe they were saving him a little bit and they're like, all right, Stefan, this is your game. Let's just go do that again, and we'll target you at a really high rate. Maybe you'll have an eighty percent route share because it's so important and you're the best wide receiver on our team. That's what I think they probably will end up doing. Is this a little bit vibes based and projection? Yes, I mean like yes, I have to use some sort of ball knowledge whenever I'm doing this stuff, and that's where my brain kind of goes. They have a strong twenty four plus point applied team total, so I have digs only two spots head of consensus. But I did kind of want to talk about him on today's show.

00:34:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, like if they if the Patriots beat they're tied right now with Denver, and if they beat the the Bills, then they've got one more game versus the Ravens and then they close out versus the Jets.

00:34:52
Speaker 3: And the Dolphins.

00:34:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, so that one seed as we know for teams with a playoff buy.

00:35:02
Speaker 3: Didn't in the King's Classic, you don't.

00:35:04
Speaker 1: You don't want to go into the wildcard round and face Kyle Pitts. Guys, all right, it's not it's not an unfeeling, you know.

00:35:10
Speaker 3: Would have messed it up at all. All right. For tight end, you've got Daldon Kinkaid.

00:35:15
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't really know why. This is what I like sometimes in my rankings because like, like ETN last week. Remember, by the way, last week's main event was pretty sweet.

00:35:24
Speaker 2: I was about to say last week you had ETN, you had for the tight end Kobe Parkinson, who scored a touchdown did yes?

00:35:31
Speaker 1: Yes?

00:35:31
Speaker 3: And and the Vikings scored a thirty burger.

00:35:34
Speaker 1: The Vikings did did score put put a thirty burger up? Yeah, that's I've only done that for two teams this year, and both of them hit because the one was weak two with with Detroit Detroit forty burger. Uh. Dalton Kinkaid, Though, I don't really know why I have him ranked higher, But I mean, I'm just ranking him based on the combination of you know, projection and vibe and subjectivity. But uh, I think he does have a tilting route share you know, usually under that sixty percent mark. But again, really really important game for both of these teams. New England, like I just shared, they're kind of a pass funnel defense plus four percent pass rate when teams face them, eleven passing yards overexpected through the air from quarterbacks, and New England's a top ten opponent for tight ends by justin points allowed. So Kinkaid kind of eased back last week potentially, and now you know, maybe they give him that sixty percent plus rout chair.

00:36:23
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to the bold predictions, starting with Christian Watson.

00:36:28
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say Christian Watson scores fewer than six PPR points this week. Okay, he's on a heater. I said won a heater. I meant on a heater. There's a typo there. He's on a heater. But but Jayden Reid came back last week, and I know Christian Watson did his thing. He also had four targets in a nineteen percent target chair. Not bad but certainly not great. We know that Denver's defense and secondary is really good, top five against wide receivers. They're also top five and deep ball completion rate. Allowed in terms of like in a good way, like they're good at stopping deep ball passes, and Christian Watson has has created and generated some of those big plays. So I'll say he's gonna score fewer than six PPR points this week. That's my bold prediction.

00:37:13
Speaker 3: All right, you got chim Mary DK.

00:37:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, I did this for you, thank you. Yeah. I threw out a tight.

00:37:20
Speaker 2: Feel a top twenty four receiver this week, which is saying like a whole lot, but for.

00:37:26
Speaker 1: All Chim ray DK I is at top okay, here here, okay, we'll change it right now, top twenty wide receiver.

00:37:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, there you go. Top twenty sends a lot better than top twenty four.

00:37:36
Speaker 1: All right, fine, Jim ray DK is a top twenty wide receiver this week. He had a thirty two percent target shair last week. He's lining up in the slot now that elic Iamaner's back. That's something you've always got to pay attention to, is when like Wanda Robinson's a good example of this, when Darius Slayton's out, Robinson's not in the slot nearly as much, and then Slayton comes back and wandall will play you know, ninety eight percent of the routes and he'll be out there all the time. But he's able to go in the slot more when they're in eleven personnel because they have another perimeter wide receiver who can play that role. And it's similar with Tennessee and lic I Amnner and so I am anders healthy and you know they have guys that can play in the perimeter. And he's been lining up in the slot on about seventy percent of his snaps. Jim ray DK has well. San Francisco allows the second most adjusted targets and fantasy points to slot receivers when you look at just the raw numbers there first, and I think I cited the raw numbers on the Sleeper show. That's my bad. But when adjusted their second, Chicago's first and adjusted fantasy points allowed the slot receivers. So negative gamescript is probable for Tennessee this week in San Francisco. Great slot matchup. That's where Chim ray DK has been playing top twenty wide receiver.

00:38:45
Speaker 3: All right, look ahead wherever we wire.

00:38:47
Speaker 2: And again, these are just a bunch of names, no particular order, usually by position.

00:38:53
Speaker 3: He started with JJ McCarthy.

00:38:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm also seeing Ben Johnson and chat say, Watson put up a measly twenty five PR points last week after JJ's wide receiver one call and JJ turns heel on him. Smy, that was to be fair. That was Joey Wright on Perspectives who said that Watson would finish as the wide receiver one last week, and it was close. I mean, he was very close to that. So shout outs to Joey. But yeah, man, I mean, this is the way that things go in fantasy football, where I don't think that I think Watson's a great like you probably have to play him, you know in most leagues, Like he's probably a decent wide receiver three for you. But you know, we know that bad games can happen with like non elite elite players. All right, look ahead, waiver wire JJ McCarthy. Hypothetically he comes out this week, he is a good game. They're playing Dallas. It's very possible. Okay, you might consider playing him against the Giants next week because it's another great matchup on paper, and then they get the Lions in week seventeen, like they have a great rest of season schedule, the best in the league for a passing attack. If he's competent at all. I think we're gonna see Justin Jefferson look better down the stretch. Jordan Addison. There's a lot to like Marcus Mariota. You could get ahead of things and pick him up now, not only to use this week, potentially you're not using them next week. I can't remember who they're playing, but it's someone tough. It might be Philadelphia. I think it is Philadelphia. But in week seventeen they do get Dallas, and so that's obviously a great matchup, the best matchup for quarterbacks on paper, and Jane Daniels maybe he gets shut down and Marcus Mario is just their starter rest of season. Bryce Young gets Tampa Bay next week, obviously a pretty good matchup after what we saw last week. And Aaron Rodgers gets Detroit in a dome, so that'll be kind of interesting for Rogers. I think that Mariota for week seventeen is a great pickup here. Bryce Young is probably safer against Tampa Bay, but I don't mind the other guys either. Get your handcuff running backs. Non handcuffs would be like Bam Knight because Trey Benson is officially Donzo and they get Atlanta and Cincinnati in week sixteen and seventeen. Emmanuel Wilson, even Josh Jacobs plays, this is a handcuff, yes, but I'm calling him out in particular because Jacobs has his lingering knee and if something gets worse, you don't know what's gonna happen in week sixteen. So ad Emmanuel Wilson, Jalen Wright, you know, same deal with Devon Chan and they get Cincinnati next week, man Plea and I have Dylan Samson here, but he's not playing, so I'll take him off this list. Man. I'll tell you what, Devin ah Chan, I have a lot of buys with a Chan and I need him to be healthy for next week. Devon Ahan against Cincinnati is is what this world needs.

00:41:34
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:41:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, Josh Downs gets San Francisco next week. I called him out just because of that slot matchup, but I don't think that that's only a very deep league play. Kayshawan Boody, still out there in a lot of leagues, gets Baltimore. That's a plus matchup. Luther Burden talked about him enough. Ady Mitchell. Maybe Tyrod Taylor's back next week. Darren Waller gets Sincy next week. Isaiah likely has just been playing pretty well seventeen percent targets here since Lamar Jackson came back. Mika Sicki gets Miami coming up, and then you can see what his usage kind of looks like here in week fifteen to see if you should play him next week, and then two defenses. New Orleans gets the Jets in Minnesota getst the Giants. There's not yet a ton of New Orleans.

00:42:16
Speaker 3: You know who New Orleans has in Week seventeen.

00:42:19
Speaker 1: They hang on, hang on that that would be? That would Uh I'm trying to th oh, is it is it Vegas?

00:42:25
Speaker 3: No?

00:42:26
Speaker 1: Who is it?

00:42:27
Speaker 3: Titans?

00:42:28
Speaker 1: Oh? That's right, that's right. I knew that.

00:42:30
Speaker 3: So they get they get the Jets, and then the Titans they should be.

00:42:33
Speaker 1: Yeah they could. I mean they're not great defensively, but yeah they could. They could.

00:42:37
Speaker 2: I do wonder some of these games where teams are trying to I don't know, they're not trying to tank, but like these games do have meaning with the NFL Draft, Like Week seventeen, you've got the Titans and the Saints and you've got the Raiders and the Giants. Yeah, like we thought they would have meaning for our best ball teams.

00:42:56
Speaker 3: Really they've got meaning for the NFL.

00:42:58
Speaker 1: But in the wrong way, right, yes, Like you.

00:43:01
Speaker 3: Don't want you don't want to win those games.

00:43:03
Speaker 1: Like here's at least with Atlanta they traded theirs a way, so it's whatever, you know.

00:43:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, I think that's uh, that's it. Let's let's move on to the quad boxes. We have a lot of games.

00:43:22
Speaker 3: To uh to talk about as far as like you got a limit to just four?

00:43:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, So here are the games. Jets, Jags, Cardinals, Texans, Titans, forty nine Ers, Browns, Bears, Ravens Bengals.

00:43:44
Speaker 3: That might be one.

00:43:45
Speaker 1: Are you going first? If I know what I want, if I go.

00:43:48
Speaker 3: First, You're going Lions and Rams first?

00:43:50
Speaker 1: Yeah? Do you want to go first? Though? No, you can go first, all right, Lions Rams. Okay, it's gonna be a really fun game.

00:44:00
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with that. That Ravens Bengals game. Okay, I think that that could be fun.

00:44:08
Speaker 1: Good total in that game. I am going to go Bill's Patriots next.

00:44:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was gonna be mine. I feel like you went really chalky with yours.

00:44:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean there's there's three. Those are the three best games. I think I might put Bill's Patriots over Ravens Bengals, but those are the three best, like intriguing, you know, some playoff implications and fantasy implications.

00:44:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, let me go with Vikings and Cowboys.

00:44:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that would be my other one too, just because we could have done Colt Seahawks just to just for the Philip Rivers Bowl.

00:44:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's true. You know, you can still change yours if you want.

00:44:47
Speaker 1: I'm definitely not changing, But I'm one watching Bill's Patriots over over Philip Rivers getting destroyed by Seattle's.

00:44:55
Speaker 2: Defense, Vikings and Cowboys Sunday night football watching Justin Jefferson getting two catches for you know, twenty two yards.

00:45:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have. I have Jefferson in a first round playoff matchup this week too.

00:45:12
Speaker 2: That Dolphin Steelers game looks kind of gross, but big implications on the Monday night football Hammer game.

00:45:18
Speaker 1: So I'm actually picking up Boswell in a kicker league just so I can sweat something. Boswell was the like ever boy for the late run perspective. No, I feel like I feel like the world is telling me. The universe is telling me to use Chris Boswell this week, and so I'm going to add him and I'm going to use him over Harrison Bucker.

00:45:35
Speaker 2: How do you feel as a as a Steelers fan for where things are right now?

00:45:40
Speaker 1: I mean, you say Steelers fan. Look, I like the Steelers. I want them to win. It's not a very like hardcore fandom anymore. But I'm very are you Are you disavowing the Steelers right now? No? I mean if I hadn't seen the root for it's obviously the Steelers. Yeah, you don't.

00:45:58
Speaker 3: Know what's what's you're You don't what yours on the team.

00:46:02
Speaker 1: You don't grow up in Pittsburgh and not have that in you, right Like it's just a part of uh. But I think that they're an absolute disaster right now. Still, even after last week's game. Last week's game was one of the most predictable outings in a Mike Tomlin of the Mike Tomlin era. He did this against Indianapolis. I called both of them on the Living in the Stream podcast because he just this is what he does. It's just it's this is what the Steelers do. But Miami is still technically in it, and they've been playing better defensively. It's gonna be kind of an interesting game, genuinely. So I'm I'm I'm excited to watch that on Monday night.

00:46:37
Speaker 3: Waller versus Rogers. That's what you know, this is. This is like the week where we are a little bit nostalgic.

00:46:43
Speaker 2: Have you seen some of the memes about like stuff happening in the NFL and how like our nineties two thousands are back?

00:46:51
Speaker 1: I did not have not, but it feels that way.

00:46:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, like Rivers is back, Rogers? What was it? Another one?

00:46:58
Speaker 2: Like the the like Yeah, I mean all all sorts of stuff as far as like the how it feels like it was when our childhood.

00:47:09
Speaker 3: All right, JJ, that's that's it for the show. It's a you know, kind of a shorter show.

00:47:14
Speaker 1: This We were a short show this week. Yeah, but yeah it was good. Good to I mean it's good for you. You got to rest up, you know, get the man cold going.

00:47:23
Speaker 2: So yeah, chill out, And this is what happens. I put it in the newsletter last week. I said that I had a normal voice, you didn't last week on the show.

00:47:31
Speaker 3: And then immediately I get I get hit with it.

00:47:34
Speaker 1: So I only I only have gotten because it went from in my throat to then early this week it was kind of in my like, I had a headache for a couple of days just from like, but today was was a turn the corner kind of day. I feel a lot better today, even though I tilted like crazy. I couldn't even I couldn't even go to bed last night because of going through Best Ball. I think we should explain this a little bit, okay for for people who don't play Best Ball right like, So essentially, with like a lot of these contests, like the Milli for instance, you can max enter one hundred and fifty teams, and that's what becoming a Best Ball bro was all about, was sort of me documenting max entering the milli and one hundred and fifty teams. And then also there's another contest that you and I both had a decent amount of lineups in and teams in like that fifty nine dollars one. You know, you have a couple, you have a five to five to five team that's still alive and going well. But regardless, the first round you can think of it ash and Best Ball is weeks one to fourteen. So your goal in your twelve team league that you drafted with your goal is to get in the top two because then you move on into the playoffs, and then there's gonna be different playoff rules depending on each tournament. But you know, the MILLI for instance, you're now in a new pod, a new league with eleven other teams, and you're trying to get first to then move on to Week sixteen. And so last night, so I had forty seven Milli teams that had moved on, and last night I was looking through to see how many Kyle Pits teams I had. I had three of them, and then I had one in the fifty nine dollars contest out of seventeen teams in advanced out of forty one. But I was going through, and I'm going through just to see. You know, they call it pod luck. I'm explaining this well as a best play. Yeah, they call it pod luck because each pod, each league that you join in week fifteen, that's randomized. You don't know what these other teams draft. There could be seven Christian McCaffrey teams in that pod, and you might think that you have an edge with Christian McCaffrey, but you really don't. So every pod has this sort of like unique economy almost and unique circumstances where like.

00:49:40
Speaker 2: You and I got thrown into the same we were in two different leagues, we won those leagues. We got thrown into the same pod this week, and Kyle Pitts isn't in that.

00:49:50
Speaker 1: Pod, right and we're in we're in that in that tournament, that particular contest, Yeah, to two out of twelve advance and right now after Thursday night game, we're first and second. Just because we had some exposure to that game. Did I think I'd Bejon? Did I have Bejon in that in that one?

00:50:06
Speaker 3: I don't know.

00:50:08
Speaker 1: Regardless, Uh, we're sweating the fact that, like you know, last night, I'm sitting here and I'm like, I really hope I don't have a lot of Kyle Pits in my pods because he just went off. And what do you think is advance rate's going to be? So by advance rate, folks, I mean, how many Kyle Pits teams are going to win one of those pods of twelve? Right?

00:50:29
Speaker 3: Yeah?

00:50:29
Speaker 1: Like, how how frequently do you think Kyle Pitts is going to move on? Is it going to be over fifty percent?

00:50:33
Speaker 3: I'd say, yeah, fifty was the number that I had my mind.

00:50:36
Speaker 2: I think it's just crazy when you think of one player out of twenty that you draft right, accounting for a fifty advance.

00:50:43
Speaker 1: Rate, right, But then you have to play the game theory. And I was talking to to Liam about this earlier today chess Liam on on Twitter and he, you know, he was saying, how the nice part is though that if you get a team through that doesn't have Kyle Pits, then all of a sudden, you have a really really nice edge. And we sixteen because if Pits doesn't have a big game and you don't have you're not relying on Pits, then all of a sudden, you know, you like, like the thing is that these teams, there's gonna be some really dead teams that can move on when these big performances happen because the rest of their roster might not look that great, but they got this huge forty eight point performance from Kyle Pitts, so they're able to make noise and move on to the next round. But then the next round their team might not have unless Pitch just keeps doing this, But the next round they might not have the right players. Right, So you if you can make it, but that's the problem. So I went through each of my forty seven pods today this morning. I was trying to do it on my phone last night when I was lying in bed, like not being able to go to sleep, And uh, he's in seventy five percent of my milli pods, Which do you think that's probably around at like sixty five to seventy five percent is probably around the average at this point, yeah, probably, Yeah, So, like, you know, you want to be lower obviously if you don't have him, and then I have him in a few other teams had in two of the three and my million whatever. You just kind of go through all these iterations and you have no idea what's gonna happen. But you know, usually you root for, or at least I do. I root for like nothing crazy. I don't love when crazy stuff happens, and obvious unless I have like a lot of exmotor now, you know, but even from like as an analyst, I don't like when crazy outlier things happen because it just makes yes, we love the game for this, but also it makes things just not as fair isn't the right word, but it's the one that's coming to mind. And so it's just gonna be one of those things where now I'm rooting for more of those types of games this week. We need, you know, I really need Jackson Smith and Jig But to just go absolutely bonkers this weekend, you know, or or really it's later round players like a Rico Dubtle or something who I'm heavily exposed to to just have great games because you need to make up the lost points that you are now behind to all the Kyle Pitts teams.

00:52:56
Speaker 2: I mean, crazier things can happen. This could just be an insanely high scoring week. Yeah, and you have twenty players that have a team to pick the optimal plays for each one.

00:53:09
Speaker 1: Slay.

00:53:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I was trying to tell you this morning, Like, hey, it's not all over. Like I mean, I was trying to pick you up. I was sick, but I was still trying to pick you up.

00:53:17
Speaker 3: I just come here for.

00:53:19
Speaker 1: I just you know, I put a lot of pressure on myself to do well, you know, I know, and part of it is just a journey that we're on.

00:53:25
Speaker 3: You know.

00:53:26
Speaker 2: It's when you when you're drafting all these teams and then you realize, Okay, statistically speaking, yeah, I did have advance a good advance rate, but like statistically speaking speaking, actually I should only advance like three or four teams.

00:53:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, realistically, if I have forty seven teams, I should only advance three or four four, let's just say, because that would be forty eight to it by twelve but before. So realistically I should only have four million teams after this week, and if I get three to five, then that's that's what should have happened, you know. But it is a little bit of a letdown because you just won as many as many teams in there as you possibly can do to have a chance, you know, to win that big prize in week seventeen.

00:54:05
Speaker 3: All right, any final thoughts.

00:54:09
Speaker 1: No, I appreciate everybody listen to this diverted down episode. So far, the feedback's been awesome because it's a really nerdy episode. And I tried to ask the questions that you guys might have had about his modeling and stuff, and he gave some great answers. It was his first ever podcast, and he was great and I really enjoyed doing it, So give that a listen.

00:54:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, he did great, and yeah, I will just say in your Week fifteen matchups. Some have already lost. Presumably it's okay. It's what we signed up for. This, We signed up for crazy outcomes that are unpredictable.

00:54:50
Speaker 1: Just remember here's my advice, because I try to do this for myself too. Yeah, a one league snapshot, a two league snapshot. It might look absolutely heinous and frustrating and crazy, right, but if you play this long enough, and you play in more leagues, whatever the case may be, you will eventually be on the other side of that. And maybe right now you're on the wrong side. I am too. I feel you. I'm in the same boat. But try your best to focus on the positives and other leagues where you got buys or whatever the case may be, and it should help you out the tilt. When I tilt, it's usually like a three minute tilt. Sometimes I throw jugs in those three minutes, in that three minute period, But you know, I can get over it pretty quickly because you have to have that kind of mindset. After things you'll go awry.

00:55:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, crazy things can happen. Best of luck to everybody in their Week fifteen matchups.

00:55:45
Speaker 3: And thank you for just being with us. Thank you for being with us.

00:55:48
Speaker 2: Staying with us and hopefully we'll see you Week sixteen with active playoff teams here on the late round Fantasy football show piece and when, Bill