904: Week 1 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacherathas JJ zacher reeth. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode nine hundred and four of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in on this Sleepers episode. Every week, I look at players who might be on your waiver wire and who you might be able to start if you're in a pinch. That's really all there is to it. I set parameters at players rostered in ten to fifty percent of leagues as the normal sleepers, and then there's deep sleepers. Those are guys who are rostered and fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues. Naturally, the hit rates on this show, they're not going to be incredible. I'm dealing with players that people don't want on their rosters, but there's been some success in the past, and at the very least you can sometimes get ahead with some players before their usage in production goes up, hopefully in week one, though. You don't have to dig this deep. Oh and also keep in mind that if a players mentioned on this show this season, it doesn't mean that you've got to start them, no matter what. If you're curious where I land on these players, you can check out my weekly rankings and tiers over on the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. You can access that by just heading the Lateround dot com. Now, before I get into the sleepers this week, there's yet another Underdog offer that I want you guys to know about. On Thursday, September fifth, all Underdog customers get a thirty percent profit boost token to use on any entry. You can apply your Thursday thirty token to any qualifying entry to boost your profit by thirty percent. If you're not signed up on Underdog Fantasy, get on it. New users can use promo code Late Round and get a nice deposit offer along with a free copy of the Late Round Draft Guide. Just go to Underdog Fantasy dot com, sign up and use promo code late Round when you sign up. Once you make a deposit, the Draft Guide will be sent to your inbox. Again, that's promo code Late Round. Now let's get to these Week one sleepers now. As I said, this first group of players consists of guys rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues at the time of this recording. Let's kick things off at quarterback and let's go to my favorite streamer this week, Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers face a Commander's defense that was absolutely brutal against the pass. Last year, they allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. And while that type of data isn't going to have amazing year over year correlation, Washington does rank third worst in PFF's preseason secondary rankings. Mayfield and the Bucks have the twelfth best implied team total on this week slate, and I'm intrigued by the amount of plays that they may end up running because Cliff Kingsbury's on the other side of the field. He's their opponent and he likes to push the pace of play. So Baker makes plenty of sense. Now, the other quarterbacks that I've got for you is Geno Smith. Seattle's now got Ryan Grubb running their offense. I'm expecting them to run a little bit more up tempo and more importantly, throw the ball down the field. Two years ago, when Gino Smith had his really solid season, he had fourteen touchdowns on fifteen plus air yard throws. That fell to just four last year. They need to push it down the field. They get Denver and they have a top ten team total on the week. The Broncos have some talent in the secondary. Obviously Patricks are tans there, but there's a chance that it's beatable outside of him. The high team total in the new offense should keep you interested in Geno Smith. Moving on to running back in this tier, let's stay in that same game, let's go to Julia McLoughlin. Generally speaking, when we're talking about running backs in the waiver wire, there usually aren't many of them who are obviously usable. Otherwise they'd be rostered. Because running backs are in very high demand in fantasy football, we just had to lean on volume regardless of matchup. Well, not only as the matchup fine, but McLoughlin should see plenty of work this season in general. It's crazy that he's out there in over sixty percent of Yahoo leagues. As I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, Sean Payton's offenses love using running backs out of the backfield as receivers, and this could end up being more of a negative game script for Denver. That's going to force a higher pass rate. Now, McLoughlin doesn't need a ton of touches to be fantasy relevant based on what we saw last year. He was most efficient running back on the Broncos. He was one of the most efficient running backs in the entire NFL. I won't reiterate what was said in the fifteen Transaction show, but he should be rostered in way more leagues. But both Williams and McLoughlin should have a nice floor in PPR formats. I'd expect double digit touches from McLoughlin, which is enough to call him out here. JK. Dobbins is currently healthy currently and that's enough for me to say that he's a sleeper this week. A healthy JK. Dobbins, in my opinion, is a better player than Gus Edward. The fantasy community is understandably leaning Edwards way, but Dobbins has more pass catching upside than Edwards does. Gus Edwards. The most targets he's seen the single season throughout his career is thirteen. He's been in the league since twenty eighteen. He has thirty seven total targets now. Camanie Vaidell has season long upside, especially given out fragile the running backs can be in front of him, but early on in the season, I'm not gonna be surprised if Dobbins gets more work than anticipated, and this could be a favorable game script for the Chargers this week because they get the Raiders and that makes Dobbins an enticing flex option. I've talked up Ray Davis during the summer and I'm interested to see how much work he gets here in Week one against the Cardinals because the Bills are relatively decent favorites against Arizona, and if this game script does go favorably at least for Buffalo, we may end up seeing a lot of Ray Davis. Not only do I think Davis could end up being the Bill's goal lineback year. Remember James Cook had only five goal line rushes last year. But don't forget that when Joe Brady took over his offensive coordinator last year for Buffalo, he really shifted their offensive philosophy. They were below average and dropbacks over expected during their final six regular season games. That's gonna favor the grinder in this backfield, which is Ray Davis. So the script, the philosophy, those are both reasons to be interested in Davis this week. Now, the last running back called out this week, it's a lot riskier in my eyes than the other dudes that I just talked about, but it's Antonio Gibson. We don't know exactly how this New England backfield is going to be deployed. Like is Antonio Gibson going to be their hurry up running back. That's important because if he is that player, there's some appeal in Week one because New England is the biggest underdog on this slate. If that game script goes south for them, maybe we see more Gibson giving his pass catching ability. Like I said earlier this week, he's never had a season with a target chair per game rate below nine and a half percent. We should learn a lot about this backfield over the weekend. At wide receiver, I'm really intrigued by ad and I Mitchell this week. The Colts made it a point to get him reps in the preseason and Josh Downs he's been nursing a high ankle spring. He didn't practice on Wednesday, So not only would Mitchell see two wide sets, but he may play more in the slot. If Josh Downs is out in this game between the Colts and Texans, it could be high scoring. The over unders set at forty nine and a half points. The Colts had the twelfth best implied team total on the slate, so don't be surprised if Mitchell starts off his career with a bang. Joey Porter Junior is probably gonna see a lot of Drake London this week, so I'm interested to see if the Falcons push the ball in other directions, maybe like towards Darnell Mooney. Now, the Steelers have been really, really bad against slot players basically over the last two decades. That could benefit someone like Ray Ray McLeod. Maybe McLeod has a revenge game in him, but Mooney's the number two wider receiver option there, and with London getting the worst cornerback matchup, Mooney may end up seeing a decent target share this week. Now, in general, there aren't many wide receivers in this ten to fifty percent rostered range right now, so I only have one more for you. I'll have more with the deep sleepers later on in the show, but that one is Dontavian Wicks. The big question mark with Wis is how he's going to be deployed and how many snaps he actually might play. It's not necessarily talent. He finished last year his rookie season with a yards per route run rate over two. That's something that we only typically see from really good wide receivers. And now Romeo Dobbs is banged up, and even if Dobbs goes, maybe he doesn't play his typical snap count. That could lead to more opportunity for Dantavian Wicks. And what could end up being a higher scoring game at tight end in this group is Hunter Henry. He's the first one. Henry and the Patriots are big underdogs and they have a really low team total. That's not always what we're looking for in a streaming option, but Cincinnati was a top five opponent for tight ends last year and adjusted points allowed to the position. There's a lack of established pass catchers in New England in general, and if the team is trailing, maybe there's more passing volume, so you could do worse. Noah Fant is another option. We've seen Fant split some work at tight ends since he joined the Seahawks, but he's essentially the sole option at the position right now from a pass catching perspective. The Seahawks get a Broncos team that was absolutely worse than the NFL at defending tight ends last year and fantasy points allowed, and like I said with Gino Smith, the implied total for Seattle this week is pretty strong, So I think Fant is a pretty good streamer. Now we're looking at players who are rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues. These are your deep plays at quarterback. Yeah, I mean, I hope you don't have to play him in a single quarterback league. But it's Sam Darnold. We've seen multiple quarterbacks post usable fantasy numbers in Kevin O'Connell's offense, and Darnald has the weapons around him, or at least he has Justin Jefferson around him, and that could be enough. He gets the Giants this week. That's a team that ranks thirty first in the NFL and PFF secondary rankings entering the season. It could be ugly, but it might end up being okay for Sam Darnold at least this week. At running back, I have two deep sleepers for you. The first one samaj p Ryn. I'm not sure how much run he's actually going to get in the Chiefs offense this week, but like I said in the fifteen Transactions episode, there's a chance that we get a little bit of the Jeric McKinnon roll out of samaj p Ryan. This year they get Baltimore and the Ravens have ranked in the top ten in each of the last two years and running back receptions allowed. Now, obviously p Ran is tough to trust, but this is what happens when you're talking about deep sleepers entering Week one, especially at running back. Now, one back who I think has a little bit more appeal is Jamal Williams. The Saints could end up just hitting a positive game script against the Panthers this weekend. It's in New Orleans, and without Ken Dre Miller active, the Saints could end up leaning on Jamal Williams a bit. Now. I like this play more if Taysom Hill weren't there because he might see some stuff at the goal line. But as a desperation play, and honestly, we're talking like a twenty four team league, you could do worse than the Saints RB two against a team that ranks as a top five opponent for running backs last year. Now, moving on to wide receiver Andre Yosibash. He was something that I talked about in the fifteen Transaction show. He makes for an okay play this week. I do think Jamar Chase is going to play in this game. But even with Chase, Yosi Vash could just play the slot role for Cincinnati, the one that Tyler Boyd had last year. That could result in about a fifteen percent target share for a team with the seventh best implied total on this week slate. And maybe they have a ramp up period for Jamar Chase, maybe he doesn't play one hundred percent of the team snaps. That would only make Yosi Vash more appealing. Luke McCaffrey was another call out earlier this week. Cliff Kingsbury runs his offenses at a fast paced like I've been saying, that should be able to help the pass catchers make up for the fact that they're playing with a mobile rookie quarterback. McCaffrey has a chance to take on the slot role in that offense that really lacks alternatives. It's Terry McLaurin and Diami Brown zach Ertz. McCaffrey could carve out a role in a decent match up against Tampa Bay. I wouldn't be surprised if he's someone that we're targeting off of waivers. Entering week two. That's something that I talked about on a recent Mailbag episode. Now, another player that I talked about on that same episode was Jaylen McMillan. He's in the same game against McCaffrey now. As I said with Baker Mayfield earlier, the Bucks get a beatable Washington secondary this week, and while Mike Evans and Chris Godwin they should eat, McMillan might be able to take advantage there too. He played a lot of slot in college, but the Bucks are likely going to move him to the outside because they want Chris Godwin to play more in the lot. And I'll trust the talent and what I saw in the preseason to say that McMillan can make the transition. He's a super deep play, but I want to reiterate that he's a good stash. I mentioned Kolby Parkinson as a streamer in the fifteen Transactions episode. That's still true. Not only has Detroit been a great matchup for tight ends in each of their last three seasons, but that game could shoot out, and you always want to attach tight ends who run routes to teams who are bound to score. So you can look his way and then the last tight end to call out another fifteen transactions guy, it's Greg Dolsic. Like I said on that show earlier this week, I like Dulcic a lot as a second year player last year. That's because as a rookie he had a target share per game rate of seventeen point seven percent since twenty eleven among all rookie tight ends that only trailed Kyle Pitts and Evan Ingram. If Denver hits a negative game script, Dulsage could see a decent amount of volume. I don't think it should shock anyone if you have ends up being the second best target getter in this Broncos offense in twenty twenty four. Now, I always like to close this show out with some quick hitting, defensive streaming callouts. So let's do that really quick. If New Orleans or Minnesota are still out there, they work. The Saints get the Panthers, the Vikings get the Giants. They're both advantageous matchups with potentially turnover prone quarterbacks. Seattle's a five and a half point favored against Denver in Seattle, and the Broncos are trotting out their rookie quarterback. Seattle's got a new defensive minded head coach that can help things out on that side of the ball. So you can go with the Seahawks. And then there's also the Chargers and the Buccaneers. The Bucks are also facing a rookie quarterback, and that rookie quarterback is no stranger to taking sacks. And then the Chargers, that's the defense that I called out in the fifteen Transaction show. I called them out because they're going to participate in what should be a lower scoring game against Gardner Minshew and the Raiders. Now, something I'm gonna do this year on this Sleeper Show is making un Doog Champions entry at the end of every episode. This is how I'm gonna close things out. I'll be taking players from this Sleeper Show and I'll make an entry every week, which means we're only looking at overs. Because this show is about the optimistic side of things. It's about the optimistic side of a player's range of outcomes. You can choose to play along with me. It's totally up to you. I'm doing this partially to test the Sleepers, but also to just have some fun. So first, we're gonna go higher than half a touchdown for Colby Parkinson and he comes with a nice multiplier. Second ray Davis over sixteen and a half rushing yards. That one feels really good. Next, since I think the Chargers are gonna use Dobbins more than others think, I'm taking his over thirty four and a half rushing yards. And then we'll close out this entry with an eighty Mitchell touchdown, which also has a nice multiplier. So touchdowns for Colby Parkinson and ad Nin Mitchell, Ray Davis over sixteen and a half rushing yards and JK. Dobbins over thirty four and a half rushing You can try it out for yourself if you want to. Just go to Underdog Fantasy dot com and make sure to use promo code Lateround if you're signing up. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't fret to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back tomorrow with a Mailbag episode and a new Late Round Perspectives episode. I'll talk to you then