722: Week 14 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha, j J Zacher Reason, what's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Eeson in this episode seven and twenty two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Week thirteen was better for this sleeper show than Week twelve was, but it wasn't hard to be better than Week twelve. On the plus side, Jared Goff and Mike White they were reasonable streamers. Bam Knight had a nice game. Corey Davis had eighty five yards. DJ Shark had ninety eight. Nico Collins scored and so did Evan Ingram, and the defensive streamers were really solid. On the other end, Cam Akers was the play over Kyron Williams. Jordan Mason was the play over. Ty Davis Price, Jay Jones didn't take advantage of a good matchup. Mack Hollins wasn't great, and neither was DeAndre Carter, and a lot of the deeper plays they just didn't pan out. I'd say it was a bull low average week in Week thirteen, but there were at least some hits there. Let's move on to week fourteen before getting the sleepers. This week, I want to let you know that, with only a handful of Monday Night football games remaining the season, Fandle and Visa are coming together to make sure the excitement surrounding Monday Nights is at an all time high. Introducing Monday Night Perfect Picks presented by Visa, a free to play contest on fandle that gives you a chance to win a share of ten thousand dollars in cash prizes courtesy of Visa. Here's how it works. You'll be presented with ten questions centered around on field action for Monday Night's NFL game. Fans who answer the most questions correctly will win their share of the ten thousand dollars prize pool. It's that easy. The contest is now live, so head to fandle dot com Slash Free Slash Contest slash Visa Perfect Picks and make your picks before Monday Night. That's fandle dot com Slash Free Slash Contest slash Visa Perfect Picks. No purchase necessary, Agent location restrictions apply, void were prohibited. See full terms of fandle dot Com. Visa It's financial and stitutions have not sponsored or offered this promotion in any way. As is the case each week, we'll start this week off by looking at players rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues who you might be able to start this week. We'll start with the quarterback I talked about on the fifteen Transactions episode, and that's Ryan Tannehill. Trey Lon Burk's likely not playing does hurt Tannehill this week? And if Trevor Lawrence can't go, I'd be even more concerned because there'd be less back and forth in that game. So monitor all of that. If we assume Lawrence goes and Burks doesn't, then I think Tannehill's fine. It's a tough week for quarterback streamers. So me saying that Tannehill's a streamer, I don't have a lot of excitement saying that, because, trust me, I know how bad he's been in Fantasy. He scored sixteen Fantasy points per game over his last four that's nothing to write home about. But he's also faced bottom ten matchups in each one of those games, at least by adjusted Fantasy points allowed. Jacksonville's a top ten matchup, and in the only other top ten matchup that Tannehill's face. This year, He's order respectable nineteen fantasy points. Tennessee has a decent twenty three point implied team total, So like I said, I think he's fine. I have some concerns about Tyler Huntley. As I said on the ten Trends episode, he averaged sixteen points per game last year when he threw the ball thirty or more times in a game, but he also exceeded that sixteen mark just once. He had one game that really lifted that average, and on expected points added per dropback basis, he was really inefficient. But with it being a rough week for quarterback streamers, I can definitely understand going in this direction. The Ravens do have a super ugly implied team total under seventeen points according to Fandels Sportsbook, so from a process standpoint, it's pretty bad for Huntley, but the rushing component could be there in relief. Last week against Denver, Huntley ran the ball ten times for forty one yards. He found the end zone on the ground too. Sometimes it's all it takes. So if he's hitting double digit rushes, there's a chance that he has a good fantasy outing. And then the last quarterback streamer of this week. It's another if he won, it's Mac Jones. Jones gets Arizona quarterbacks against the Cardinals this year have scored about three point six more points per game than their season long average, So with Mac Jones at twelve over thirteen points per game, maybe he gets over that fifteen point mark. That's really all I can say about Jones. He scored more than sixteen fantasy points just once this season, so chances are you're praying that variance is on your side with this one. I'd rather go with Tannehill or Huntley. Let's move on to running back and go with James Cook. He's still under that fifty percent mark despite playing a season high forty three percent snapshare last week. He ended up seeing forty eight percent of Buffalo's running back rushes in a really solid eighteen percent target share. His target shairs over his last two games have been twelve point eight percent and eighteen point two percent. Those are very good numbers. The Jets have been a tough opponent for quarterbacks and wide receivers in fantasy, but against running backs they've been totally average. James Cook makes plenty of sense in this matchup where the Bills are big favorites. The last time we saw the Panthers, they took a ground and pound approach against the Broncos. I'd expect them to try to do the same thing this week against Seattle, though it may be a little bit more difficult because the Seahawks offense is better than Denver's offense. Who would have thought that I would be saying that at the beginning of the season, But Shuba Hubbard had a forty two percent running back rush share in Week twelve. He carried the ball seventeen times. In their Week eleven game, he had a twenty seven percent running back rush air and a ten percent target share. Both of those backfield shares, they're pretty gross. That's if you compare those shares to some of the studs in the league. But they're not that gross when you're comparing them to other players who are sitting on your waiver wire right now. It's likely going to be Deontay Forman getting the most work in that backfield this week, but he's also banged up. He didn't practice on Wednesday. The Seahawks are also somewhat of a run funnel. They rank as the second best matchup for running backs and justin fantasy points allowed, and they've seen the fifth lowest pass rate against them this season. I'm expecting a lot of runs unless this game just gets to totally out of hand. That's possible, but according to Fandals Sportsbook, the Seahawks are just three and a half point favorites. And speaking of the Seahawks, I don't have a ton of information on that backfield to share with you at the time of this recording, but whoever is healthiest in that backfield could make some noise this week. Assuming Kenneth Walker's out, the Seahawks are favorites, They're at home, and Caroline has been the sixth best matchup for opposing defenses and adjusted fantasy points allowed, so keep an eye on that injury report. Let's shift to wide receiver now and look at Robert Woods. He ended up with a twenty percent target share last week with Trey Lon Berks leaving early, and while he didn't do that much with his five targets, it's still an okay share in that offense. He was facing a much tougher defense last week against Philadelphia than he's going to this week against Jacksonville. Woods this actually average a target share per game of twenty three percent since Week one. The Titans just aren't a very pass heavy team, and like I said with Tannehill, they haven't faced the easiest schedule. In fact, their wide receivers have seen the sixth toughest schedule by justin Fantasy points allowed this season. Jacksonville is a much better opponent. They rank fourth easiest and adjusted points allowed. Again, I really hope Trevor Lawrence plays to make this game more competitive, but for right now, Robert Woods is a sleeper this week. DJ Shark, though, is probably my favorite sleeper this week, and by sleeper, I'm just saying a dude who's on the waiver wire in seventy five percent of leagues. There's a chance we see more Jamison Williams this week against Minnesota than we did last week. But Chark has now seen a fourteen percent target share or better in three of his last four and he gets the Vikings. This is the same matchup that I called out last week with Corey Davis. The Vikings are one of the worst in the league at covering perimeter wide receivers, and Chark is a perimeter wide receiver. Minnesota is a third best matchup for wide receivers and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. This game has an attractive over under. I'm very into this game, and I'm very into DJ Shark. Nico Collins is still rostered in fewer than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. He's getting another shout this week. Houston's going back to Davis Mills, which is probably a good thing for their pass catchers, and Collins is seeing a ton of looks in an offense. He's ever'ed a target share per game of twenty five percent over his last four that's resulted in ten seven, nine to ten targets. This matchup against Dallas is definitely not a good one, and Houston's imply team total is absolutely laughable, but a negative game script might not be a bad thing for Collins. More passing will give him a better floor. I kind of don't mind Isaiah McKenzie. This week, the Jets are the absolute toughest matchup for wide receivers according to adjusted Fantasy points allowed, but they've also seen the fifth highest percentage of wide receiver targets go to the slot this season. They've still been relatively good against the slot in total but if we're assuming that Josh Allen is able to throw for a good number of passing yards, at least compared to what the Jets have faced this year, then his wideouts can still be productive. Mackenzie has target shairs of twenty six percent and fifteen percent over his last two He's totaled fifteen targets, so I wouldn't be surprised if he sees six to eight looks in this game. Matt Collins had a rough one last week, but the peripherals were at least there. He saw a third of the Raiders targets. He cut five of nine targets for thirty five yards. That kind of usage is going to get some love on this show. He's a high floor option against the Rams, at least when compared to other sleepers, and in that same game as Van Jefferson. The Rams are six and a half point home underdogs against the Raiders according to Fandels Sportsbook, and the over under in that game a cording of Fandel Sportsbook is forty four and a half. That's not a horrible horrible over under. The Rams could be facing a negative game script that would increase their passing volume. They didn't really see that this past week. That resulted in their lowest pass rate of the year. But Van's target chairs have not been bad over his last five nineteen percent, eight percent, okay, that one's not good, nineteen percent again, twenty nine percent and sixteen percent. He's averaging about five targets per game during this stretch, and the Raiders are a top ten matchup for wide receivers. So Jefferson in play tight end is actually kind of fun. This week, I've got two of them in this tier, and there's more in the next tier. I'll get to that in a second. The first is Evan Ingram. He had a nice game last week with that touchdown. More importantly, in that game, he had a twenty one percent target chair. Tennessee's a top half matchup for tight ends, so if that share continues on, he should be good. But I do think last week's matchup against Detroit played a role in his success. He's certainly not a locked in obvious start. The other guy in this tier, though, is Hunter Henry. Henry's seen at least a thirteen percent target chair in three of his last four, and this week he's got the dream matchup against Arizona. The Cardinals are the second best matchup for tight ends according to my justin Fantasy points Allowed metric, but they're very very close to being the absolute best matchup. So the increased usage for Henry Combine with this matchup makes him a good streaming choice. Now we're going to talk about players who are rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues who could maybe find your lineup this week. But as usual, I hope you don't actually have to use these guys, or at least use most of them, but you never know. I like Nick Westbrook a Keene for all the reasons I talked about with Robert Woods. The difference is that Woods has more of a concrete role in that offense. But I would guess that Westbrook a Keene could see more looks in a plus matchup of trey Lon Burks's out. I say that I like him, but I really think he's just okay, give him more. Looking at players not rostered in many leagues, it's not sounding great for Cortland Sutton this week. Kendall Hinton would be next in line. And while I definitely do not find the Broncos passing attack appetizing they do get Kansas City. It's not only a game that could force a pass heavy script, but the Chiefs are a top half matchup for wide receivers. Hinton just two weeks ago had a twenty eight percent target chair in this Denver offense, so it's possible that he comes through with a usable performance in that same game and in that same offense as Mike Boone. Now, in Week thirteen, the Broncos didn't get hit with a negative game script. They had just three offensive plays while trailing, and Latavious Murray was there leed back, playing sixty eight percent of their offensive snaps. But according to Next Gen Stats, that's sixty eight percent snap share for Murray that dropped to fifty percent when the Broncos faced a third and medium or a third and long. Earlier this season, Mike Boone was often deployed as a team's pass catching back. So in a game against Kansas City where the Broncos could very easily trail and trail big, maybe Boone gets some more run as a pass catcher. Considering Week thirteen was his first game back from injury, it's not surprising that he didn't just take his old roll back right away. Now. I mentioned Daniel Bellinger on the fifteen Transaction Show, and I don't mind him this week. He's still rostering just four percent of leagues, but he's coming off a game where he ran the third most routes for the Giants. He had an eighteen percent target chair. Philly Ranks is a below average matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but they're actually eleventh and adjusted target share allowed, meaning teams are using their tight ends more in the passing game against the Eagles than they typically do without alternatives in that offense. I do like Bellinger. And then the final player in this tier is Chickakonquo from Tennessee. He's actually seen a twenty percent target share in three of his last six games. He's seen five targets in back to back games. Traylon Burks has banged up, and Jacksonville's not a horrible matchup. They're pretty average and adjusted fantasy points allowed, so I think a Conquo makes sense as a deeper streamer. Now, as for the defensive streamers, I mentioned Pittsburgh earlier this week, and they're in play against a Ravens team starting a backup quarterback with a sub seventeen point implied team total. There's also the Raiders against the rams La is the third best matchup in Austin fantasy points allowed this year, and that was largely with Matthew Stafford under center. It's a great matchup for the Raiders. And then I don't mind Arizona against New England. You've got a struggling offense in the Patriots facing a team coming off of bye and the Cardinals are at home. New England's been a little bit better at protecting their quarterback the last couple of weeks, but they've given up a top ten sack rate this year, with the Cardinals being top five in pressure rate. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You don't have to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Remember check out Lateround dot com. Otherwise I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.