567: Mailbag 10/22/21

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Speaker 1: This is the Label Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha, j J Zacher Reason. What's up everyone? It's JJ zacharyes and the editor in chief at FANDL and at number fire dot com and this episode five hundred and sixty seven of the Late Round podcast. So the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. We've got another FanDuel podcast network Listener League this week. Check out FanDuel dot com Slash League slash Listener League to join. It's a rake free contest that costs five dollars to enter and has fifteen hundred dollars in prizes. You can interrupt the three lineups to the contest. Again. That's fandel dot com Slash League slash Listener League. To join, eligibility research and apply, go to fandle dot com or download the Fandel app for more details. The first question this week is from at Luke Angelica one and looking to buy low or sell high on players? What stats do you pay attention to when making those decisions? Which ones have the most weight in leading to player success or failure? Thanks love the pod, Thanks Volume drives Fantasy Football. We can sit here and talk about matchups, we can talk about how efficient a player is per touch but in the end, volume is what matters. Volume is what correlates to fantasy points most. And that makes sense because fantasy points are based on getting the most yards and the most touchdowns and the most receptions as possible, and those statistics don't care about efficiency. So we have to ask ourselves what leads to volume. Well, talent leads to volume. If a player is good, however you want to define that, then that player should see volume. At running back, you have to hope that a coach puts a player on the field because he has undeniable talent. A wide receiver, you have to hope that the quarterback is competent enough to throw to a talented receiver. And a talented receiver is one who's getting open most often or making contested at a better rate than anyone else. So let's look at this then, with buying and selling players. When you're buying a player, you could be looking at a player who's seeing a ton of volume but is underperforming, So you're buying into volume, and you're buying into that volume turning into more production. Or you could be buying into a player who may not even be seeing that much volume, but you trust the talent and you know the player is good because that talent can lead to more volume. This is what we see most often with younger players who haven't broken out yet, and then the reverse is true too. We're working with small sample sizes here, so we should always accept the fact that wild and crazy things can happen in a three, a four, or five a six game sample. Sometimes players perform way above expectation despite seeing little volume, usually because they score touchdowns at an unsustainable rate. And sometimes players are seeing a lot of volume because of their environment. If those players aren't very talented, then you can't necessarily expect them to continue the pace that they're on, so they can be cell candidates. In the end, there's a lot of detail in figuring out who's a buy and who's a sell candidate. You're looking at regression, you're looking at player talent, you're looking at the schedule. You're looking at a ton of things. But what all of those things sort of surround is the idea that volume is what's most important in fantasy football. This ast question says, do I consider trading Davante Adams and If so, what type of value should I look for in return? If not, do we think the touchdowns will go up? I wanted to follow the previous question up with this one because it's a perfect example of what I'm talking about. Davante Adams is undeniably good. We know the talent is there. So if you feel like he's underperforming in some way, ask yourself what's missing from his fantasy totals this year. It's not volume. No player has a higher target share across the league. Than Davante Adams right now. And we know that volume isn't totally fluky because he had a target shair per game rate last year that's not that far off from what he's doing this season. So his volume is more than fine. The issue, as you noted in the question, is touchdowns. I'm going to make a blanket statement here that I'm probably gonna regret because it can be twisted, but generally speaking, generally speaking, when players have volume, when players have yards but they don't have touchdowns, we should expect that to regress. Now, I understand that not all players are utilized the same way. There are formulas for being more precise than what I just said I'm just saying that, generally speaking, volume in yards will lead to touchdowns. There's a correlation between those things. I mentioned on the ten Trends episode earlier this week that Adams is one of the bigger regression candidates in the league because of his yardage total, and it's true. I can't think of a single scenario where I would want to give up a thirty six percent target share in an Aaron Rodgers led offense, especially when the player with that share is underperforming, so we'd be selling him, if anything, you want to buy DeVante Adams right now? The next question is from at Dodgers Colts, should we be looking to sell Cooper? And Lamb got to think that targets will be more difficult to come by once Michael Gallup returns. So I understand this logic, I really really do. When you have this many good weapons in an offense, it can cap the target shairs of players in that offense. Here's the thing, though, with this Gallup situation, and really most situations with a player returning from injury, try not to think about it from the perspective that Gallup will enter the lineup and everyone's target shairs. Since week one, since Gallup's been out that they're gonna fall. Some of them will absolutely fall more dramatically than others. For example, the player who's benefited most from this Gallup injury is probably Cedric Wilson. Without the injury, he wouldn't be seeing the field that much, but since week one he's tied with Dalton Schultz for the third most routes run for Dallas, beyond Ceedee Lamb and Amari Cooper Cedric Wilson. Since Gallup's injury average a target share per game of ten percent. The majority of that canon will go Michael Gallup's way. And then there's Dalton Schultz. You guys know that I've been into Schultz this year, but I would be pretty surprised if he's able to maintain his target share per game with Gallup in the lineup. Since week one, he's had a target share per game of twenty two percent. So Gallup could see the majority of Cedric Wilson's work and some of Dalton Schultz's work. I would expect Lamb and Cooper to see some dip in target share because Gallup's a better player than Cedric Wilson. But I also think there's a chance that Dallas is a little bit pass heavier neutral game scripts than they've been. They're twenty third in the league in pass rate when games have been close. They also may end up being a little bit more efficient offensively. That's gonna help every player in the offense. So yeah, I think Lamb and Cooper may take a slight hit with Michael Gallup coming back. But I also think the market knows this. So instead of selling, I'd say to latch onto the things that I just talked about. Recognize that Cedric Wilson's role will basically go away, and that Dalton Schultz in the tight ends probably won't be as involved as they've been. That can lead to about a fifteen percent target chair for Michael Gallup, which will still allow Cooper and Lamb to perform. Well. It sort of goes back to what I said to the top talent matters. We know factually that Amari Cooper and Cede Lamb are talented, and we know their situations are good, that the Dallas offense is one of the best in the league. So it's really hard for me to sit here on this show and say to sell them because I don't think the market is going to properly evaluate them. I wouldn't actively be buying them, but I think they're more holds than sells. This ask questions from at Morrison James with bipocalypse upon us. If you are hit particularly hard, is it worth dropping a talent for a spot filler and possibly make someone else better? Or should you just take the l this week by starting players on a buy. My RB one, wide receiver, two, wide receiver, three, and tight end are all on buy this week. I got this question a ton this week because we've got so many buys in Week seven, and a lot of those buys are teams with really good fantasy assets. The answer to this question is that it totally one hundred percent depends. I don't know how I could answer this question in like a blanketed way. It depends who's the player that you're dropping, How valuable is he, what's your current situation within the league. Are you in desperate need of a win. It's just a tough one to answer, but I want to at least give some sort of guidance since it was asked so much this week. What I would do is still try to fill my lineup. I would still try to have a full lineup and just cross my fingers and hope that variance is in my favor. That's one of the things that I think gets missed in conversations like this, even when you're an underdog and fantasy football from a projection standpoint, because of how touchdowns can skew weekly results because of injuries, I wouldn't ever make the assumption that my team is gonna lose. I at least would try now. Sometimes though, trying means that I'm putting a bench player in my lineup because I don't want to drop him even if there's a better option on the waiver wire. I think that's the line that we draw in situations like this. Let me give you an example. I've got Sony Michelle in a couple of leagues. I'm gonna start him this weekend. It's not a terrible matchup for it. But it's not like Michelle is getting a ton of work in the Rams offense. But as we know, he's got handcuff upside. He's the right kind of piece for your bench right now, especially if you have other by week fillers on that bench who are more productive. It's just that this week I don't have those players because it's bye week. Hell, there are probably players on waivers who are in better spots than Sony Michelle this week who I could play over Michelle, But I'd rather just hope for some variants and hope that Michelle is able to pile up some garbage time points and in the end he'd be no worse than someone on waivers. So keep that in mind as you set your lineups this week. Some players may be worse options than what's on the waiver wire, but there's a cost to acquire a player off of waivers. They're not totally free since you'd have to drop someone, and chances are players on the waiver wire aren't going to be that productive, so you might as well just take a slightly worse projection from a bench player who has more upside rest of season. This has questions from at ab Hardball. Which tight ends do you have ranked above Hockinson rest of season? Love the pod, thanks, So. The tight end position's a mess. It's really hard to get consistent production from that position. I feel like that can sometimes get lost when you've got a player like TJ. Hockinson. You sit there and you're like, man, why has he had so many down performances this year, and then you look at the tight end position you say, oh wow, he's actually not that bad. He's not nearly as bad as I thought. I mean right now, and I'm recording this before Thursday night's game, but Hockinson is seventh in the league in PPR points per game. He's fourth in the NFL and tight end targets, and he's fifth in target share. And that's all while dealing with an injury this year. I think I'd probably put him behind Kelsey Walder, Andrews and Pitts rest of six season. There's an argument to be made for someone like Dalton Schultz, maybe Noah Fan which again I'm recording this before Thursday night's game, and then maybe George Kittle as well. Maybe there's an argument there, but with him not being healthy, with George Kittle not being healthy, it wouldn't be right for me to say his name. I don't think so. I think Hawkinson is still the tight end five from here on out, given his peripherals are still fine. The last question this week says what to do with the forty nine ers backfield? Is Jeff Wilson an option? So I'd like Elijah Mitchell the player quite a bit. I think he fits the offense well and he brings the speed element that Kyle Shanahan loves. With that being said, I would be kind of surprised if Mitchell is a true bellcal from here on out. I don't mean that from the standpoint that he's not going to get any work on the ground. I'm just a little bit concerned about what things might look like for Mitchell as a receiver. Mitchell hasn't seen a double digit percentage target share in any game this year. He's seeing the bulk of the team's running back rushes when healthy. That's great, but they use Kyle Yuschek when Mitchell was out. They use them as a pass catcher, and they've used Jamiael Hasty as one too, And remember Hasty's not out for the year. And then with Jeff Wilson, you have to worry a bit about what can happen at the goal line when he returns. But it sounds like we're not gonna see Wilson for at least a month. Here's another thing to keep in mind when looking at justin Fantasy points allowed from now through the end of the season. The forty nine ers have a below average schedule. It's not super far below average, but it's below average. I like Mitchell. I think he's gonna see work in this backfield, especially on the ground, but I would be shocked if he's anything more than an RB two type from here on out, and honestly, I think it's more reasonable to place him at the lower end of that RB two group. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, enjoy Week seven. Hope you get through these bye weeks. I will talk to you next week. M