936: Week 9 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha JJ zacher reson what's up everyone, It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode nine hundred and thirty six of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 1: We saw a little bit of week over week improvement with last week's sleeper episode, but there were still some big misses. The Tampa Bay wide receivers weren't nearly as good as I thought they would be. Dontavian Wicks was a flop, Jalen Tolbert was too, and Tyler Boyd didn't take advantage of a good matchup. But I did call out Jamis Winston and I called out Cedric Tillman too. Bo Nix was an awesome streamer. Braylan Allen found the end zone, and so did Jalil McLoughlin. It was another below average week, but it was at least better than that crappy one than I had in Week seven. Now, before we get into the Week nine sleepers, I want to remind you that even though you drafted your fantasy teams back in August, you can still do snake drafts right now.

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Speaker 2: Over on Underdog.

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Speaker 1: Just head to underdog Fantasy dot Com or download the Underdog app. In the draft section, click NFL and you'll see tons of drafts that you can participate in right now. And if you're new to Underdog, make sure to sign up with promo code late Round. That'll get you a nice deposit bonus as well as my rest of season rankings. Those rankings are updated for you each Tuesday once you get the link to them, but to get them you have to sign up use promo code late Round, make a deposit, and start playing. We'll kick things off with players roster and fewer than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, but more than ten percent of them, and as usual, we'll start with some quarterback streamers. Bo Nicks has been on fire, at least in fantasy football. He's averaged almost twenty two standard fantasy points per game over his last four and two of those games came against opponents who rank in the bottom half of the league and adjusted fantasy points allow to quarterbacks. Denver gets Baltimore this week. The Ravens have been thrown on this year on the Buccaneers have seen a higher pass rate against them in neutral script environments and the Ravens are allowing an extra seventy one passing yards to be thrown against them versus their opponent's season long average, meaning we should expect bo Nicks to throw more passing yards than he typically throws for. There's some concern about Denver's low team total this week, but as a fantasy asset.

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Speaker 2: Nix is not in a bad spot.

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Speaker 1: Derek Carr should be back this week, and the Saints get the Panthers, we know that's a plus matchup. Carolina has been putrid defensively this year. They've given up the third most adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks, and they've got a bottom tier pressure rate. They've given up a QB one performance in four of their last five games, and the last time that Derek Carr faced them back in Week one, he completed nineteen of twenty three passes and threw for three touchdowns. The Saints have almost a twenty six point implied team total this week. That makes car an ok play now, moving on to running back as usual. It's tough to find reliable players of the position off the waiver wire, but Tyler Algiers rostered in thirty seven percent of leagues. I don't mind him against Dallas this week. The game between Atlanta and Dallas looks like it's going to be one of the fastest paced ones on the slate. We may see a lot of back and forth action and more plays run that's gonna favor all of the players involved in the game. Dallas has faced a bottom five pass rate against them this year in neutral game script environments because they've been bad against the run. Team running backs have seen sixteen more rushing guards per game against Dallas versus their season long averages. The Cowboys are the seventh best matchup for running backs by justin Fantasy points allowed.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Algier has been flip flopping between lower running back rush heares and higher ones over the last five weeks, but last week he did see forty eight percent of Atlanta's running back rushes. If they go with a ground heavy approach, he could see double digit touches in this game. Another running back who may have some appeal in deeper formats is Zach Charbonnet. He's seen at least a twenty five percent running back rush here in every game over his last four He's actually hit a double digit percentage target share in two of those games. Seattle gets a RAMS team has been pretty average for running backs when looking at a justin fantasy points allowed, but they've been a bottom ten team at preventing running back rushing yards. So in a pinch, maybe you get like ten touches from Sharbonnay in the game that could end up being high scoring. And then I'm gonna shout out Ray Davis here too. Look all these running back players, they're shaky because people roster all the usable running backs.

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Speaker 2: But Davis has.

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Speaker 1: Seen running back rush shares of twenty nine twenty five percent over his last two games, and he's been efficient with his touches basically since his Week six breakout against the Jets. The Bills get Miami this week. It's a game where they're at home as six and a half point favorites. The game has a high over under, giving Buffalo a massive team total of almost twenty eight, and Miami's been a team that struggled against the run way more than the pass this year. They're actually the best team and adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks according to my numbers, and their eighth worst against running backs. In neutral scripts, they faced a bottom five pass rate. Teams are running the ball against Miami. This is more of a desperation play, there's no doubt, definitely more so than a player like Tyler Aljear. But that's where we're at this year with these waiver wire running backs, and there surprisingly aren't that many injuries across the league at the position.

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Speaker 2: Now, moving on.

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Speaker 1: To wide receiver, let's just talk about the Carolina guys. Xavierly Get is roster in about twenty one percent of Yahoo leagus Jalen Coker only two percent of them.

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Speaker 2: Now, I think we Get is.

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Speaker 1: The preferred choice, but I don't have their projections massively far apart. This week, assuming they run out the same guys as they did last week, they get the Saints. As I just talked about, New Orleans has been the eleventh best matchup for wide receivers and adjust the points allowed this year, so the matchup isn't anything that we should be overly worried about. A higher percentage of wide receiver targets have gone to the slot against New Orleans than most teams. They rank just outside the top ten and slot target share allowed that's adjusted for strength of opponent, and they've been well below average and slot targets receptions yards and touchdowns allowed, which is why Coker is kind of interesting. He's been operating as Carolina's primary slot guy. He was at an eighty percent slot rate last week according to PFF, and he led the team in Week seven two. So the Guttus is safer option because of the talent profile and sort of the steadiness of his role. But don't forget about Cocher this week either. Like I said before, I really like this Falcons Cowboys game. There's a nice overunder, there should be a good pace, and there are quarterbacks who can sling it if necessary. That means that Jalen Tolbert once again is a sleeper. His target shairs have not been that great. I'm not gonna lie. He's been below a twelve percent target share in four of his last five games, but he's still getting up to a ninety percent route participation. There's an avenue here where even if he's only had a fifteen percent target share or so, that that's enough for him to produce against a top ten team for wider or by justin fantasy points allowed. We're getting a switch to Joe Flacco in Indianapolis. That's great news for fantasy football. Josh Downs and Michael Pittman. They're going to be more reliable now. And I think that we can look at Alec Pierce too. People kind of make the assumption that Pierce is just going to be better with Anthony Richardson given how he started his season, but don't forget. They need a monster game against Jacksonville with Joe Flacco, at least from a production standpoint, his target share wasn't great, but he got there. The bottom line is that all of these pass catchers and players on this team, they're better off in fantasy with Joe Flacco and Pierce's running routes on about eighty percent of the team's dropbacks. Right now, the eighty Mitchell takeover has not happened, and this week the Colts get the Vikings. Teams against the Vikings have thrown on average seventy two more yards than their season long averages. That's the most in the league. Minnesota has given up an average of two hundred and ninety eight passing yards over their last three games, and teams are throwing at fifteen plus air yards against the Vikings at the fifth highest rate in the league. As we know, Alec Pierce a big play guy. He's a super volatile player, but that's all why he can hit. This week, the Buccaneers get the Chiefs. The Chiefs defense is bad news for basically anything fantasy football. But we're looking for volume here and there could be some volume for Jalen McMillan and even Sterling Shepard. Now we have to see if Shepard is fully healthy. But the reason I'm calling him out and he's a deep sleeper for the record, but it's because he played the slot for the Buccaneers this past week.

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Speaker 2: And guess which team has been.

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Speaker 1: Targeted in the slot most this year in the entire NFL win a ju justed for strength of opponent. That's right, the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, that could mean big things for Kate Otten. Once again, I wouldn't be surprised if that's the outcome here because Kansas City they've kind of struggled against tight ends this year. But it could mean Okay, enough production for Sterling Shepard and then Jalen McMillan. Just getting a call out here because number one, he could play some in the slot too, But number two, he's coming off a game where he had a ninety percent rout participation in a fifteen percent target share. Now, I don't feel great about either option because this matchup is not awesome, but that's kind of the name of the game with these sleepers.

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Speaker 2: I feel better about Elijah Moore this week.

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Speaker 1: About being honest, the Browns will get nearly as juicy of a matchup this week when they face the Chargers, and this could end up being a pretty slow game that's not good for fantasy. LA is also a bottom ten matchup for wide receivers when looking at justin Fantasy points allowed. Now, on the plus side, Elijah Moore is coming off a game where he saw twenty nine percent target share, and for what it's worth, the Chargers ring tenth and adjusted slot target.

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Speaker 2: Share allowed to wide receivers.

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Speaker 1: Teams are targeting the slot at a slightly higher than normal rate when facing LA, and since Amari Cooper left town, Morris played in a slot on about seventy percent of his snaps, so I don't mind him as a sleeper now. The first ten end that I've gotten this tier is Zach Ertz. The matchup on paper's kind of whatever, but Ertz now has three consecutive top twelve performances in PPR formats. He's coming off a game where he hit a thirty two percent target chair that's hard to find a tight end, So go ahead.

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Speaker 2: And stream him. And then I'm going back to Taysom Hill.

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Speaker 1: I talked about him in the fifteen Transaction Show earlier this week, but there are injuries and openings across the entire Saints' offense right now that could lead to more work for Taysom Hill, both on the ground and through the air, and he gets one of the best matchups imaginable this week when they face Carolina. The Saints have a super high implied team total, like I talked about earlier, so I think Taysom Hill's kind of a good play. We're not looking at players rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues, and the obvious go to quarterback this week is Joe Flacco. I talked earlier with Alec Pierce about how Minnesota's secondary hasn't been great of late. They've watched their opponents throw for seventy two more yards in their season long averages. Flacco has a legit chance to throw for three hundred yards this weekend, and the Vikings have been a top ten team this year and adjusted Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks in terms of being a favorable matchup. So he's one of the better options that you're gonna find this year in this sub ten percent bucket. Now, I've been targeting backup running MAXs who faced the Panthers, because backup running max have crushed the Panthers this year. Within context, in five of eight games, a backup running Mack has scored double digit PPR points against Carolina. Now, that could either be Jamal Williams or Kendre Miller this week, depending on Kendre Miller's status, But right now, it doesn't sound great for Miller. Putting Williams directly in that backup role. He could see a decent number of touches in that game if the game script goes the Saints' way. I talked about Jalen Kocher already in this year, So let's move on to a pretty obvious pick in Parker Washington. Christian Kirk he's done for the year. Brian Thomas, he's banged up. Gabe Davis, he's banged up. Even if Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis play this weekend, Parker Washington is basically the new Christian Kirk, I'd anticipate him playing that role now. If one or both of those wide outs is out, there's an even higher target chair ceiling for Washington, and the Jacks could see a negative game script this week because they get the Eagles. They're seven and a half point underdogs. Philly's a slightly below average matchup for wide receivers, but volume alone could get Washington into flex status this week. We've got some banged up wide receivers in Houston too. We have Nico Collins still on IR and Stefan Diggs is out for the year, so it's Tank Dell and then some other wide receivers that we have to figure out. If you look at last week's numbers, according to PFF, Tank Dell ran thirty routes, Stefan Diggs was at twenty eight and Xavier Hutchinson was at twenty six. Then it was John Metchi and Robert Woods who were only at nine and eight routes run. Hutchinson played an identical number of snaps as Stefan Diggs did out of the slot, so I think he's gonna have more of like an inside outside role than what we're gonna see out of Robert Woods and John Metchi. So I think he's the safest option of those three, which is why I'm gonna shout him out on today's Sleep Show. You guys remember Trey Tucker. Remember when everything was up in the air with DeVante Adams and people are really excited about Tucker. Well, He's been pretty bad in fantasy over his last four games, aside from team environment. One reason why is because the Raiders have faced the Broncos, Steelers, and Chiefs during that stretch.

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Speaker 2: That's brutal.

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Speaker 1: Tucker's running routes on well over ninety percent of the team's dropbacks right now without Adams, and they get a much more advantageous matchup this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati is the sixth best matchup for wide receivers by justin Fantasy points allowed, So I think that Tucker's kind of an interesting prayer this week. Lastly a wide receiver, Noah Brown, He's still only rostered in two percent of Yahoo leagues despite target sharers of eighteen percent and twenty four percent in two of his last three games.

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Speaker 2: Now. He obviously scored.

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Speaker 1: A lot of points last week because of that Hail Mary, but his role participation was at eighty one percent. That's not bad. This week, the Commanders get the Giants. New York has been beat more so in the perimeter this season, which is where Noah Brown will line up, and they've been an average team and adjusted points allowed to wide receivers, so I think you could do worse. We've got two tight ends in this tier. First is john Us Smith, who's in play for two main reasons. Number One, Miami may be forced to have a relatively high pass heavy script, But more importantly, Smith has seen target shares of twenty six percent, thirty two percent, and sixteen percent over his last three. Over his last two, his route participation has been seventy eight percent and seventy percent. Those are not bad numbers for a tight end. I don't love him, but I do think that he makes sense as a dart throw. Chick Aconquo is kind of in the same spot. There's no DeAndre Hopkins anymore for the Titans, and over Chigs last four games, he's in his route participation rise by about fifteen to twenty percentage points. That's resulted in target shares in that twelve to fifteen percent range. The Titans get the Patriots this week. It's a totally average matchup, but Chick might start to get a little bit more involved in this offense with so few alternatives. That's why he's kind of interesting. But I'm not gonna lie this week. Overall, it's just kind of a tough one. I'll be happy if like four or five of these picks really hit. But I know that some of you are in trouble, so I did my best to get you something now. At defense this week, I talked about New Orleans already on the fifteen Transactions episode. They're definitely in play. I also think Washington and that improved defense they work against New York and really either defense in that Tennessee New England game. They work as streamers too. And then lastly, let's get our pick them on over at Underdog. We're gonna go higher than two hundred and fourteen and a half passing yards for bow Knicks. He's been higher than that in two of his last three, and we know that Baltimore generally gives up a lot more passing yards than the average defense. Walls to go higher than forty and a half receiving yards for Jalen Tolbert against the Falcons. He's actually been above that mark in all but two games this year, and this is a plus matchup, So bow Knicks and Jalen Tolbert let's ride.

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Speaker 2: That's it for today's show, though well. Thanks to all of you for listening.

00:16:01
Speaker 1: If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't fret to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening everyone.

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Speaker 1: I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag episode and another episode of Late Round Perspectives