291: Week 5 Matchups

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacher, Retha Jay Jake Zacher Reason.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone?

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Speaker 1: It's JJ zach Reeson, the editor in chief at fandel and at number fire dot com in this episode two hundred and ninety one of the Late Round Podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. As always, thanks for tuning in. Before looking at players, I'm higher and lower on versus the consensus. This week, I want to let you guys know about Fandel's Sunday Million contest, where there's three million dollars in prizes up for grabs here in week five for just a nine dollars entry fee, take your shot at the one million dollar first place prize this Sunday with the added wrinkle of fandels fifty thousand dollars overtime TD bonus. Simply roster a player in your Sunday Million lineup that scores a touchdown in overtime and you'll win a share a fifty thousand dollars in bonus cash in addition to any other prizes you win. For more details, visit fandle dot com or download the FanDuel app today eligibility restrictions apply, So at quarterback this week, I'm gonna start with two guys from the same game. That game's in Cincinnati, where the Cardinals are facing the Bengals. I really like the potential in this game. Arizona's running at the fastest pace in football this year, whereas Cincinnati ranks sixth, and in neutral gamescript situations, both teams are top ten. That means more volume, which means more potential scoring, and that means more fantasy points. So I like Kyler Murray because of that fact, but also because Cincinnati's defense is terrible. Every quarterback they've faced has thrown at least one touchdown this year, and they've allowed the fourth highest yards per attempt rate. But Andy Dalton is in play as a streamer too. Arizona ranks fifth worst in yards per attempt, and before last week, when Russell Wilson was pretty average fantasy wise against them, the Cardinals had allowed three straight top six performances to fantasy quarterbacks. And the difference between Dalton and someone like Russell Wilson is that Dalton's defense isn't likely to step up the way Seattles did last week. That should lead to a more pass heavy script for Andy Dalton. But like I said, that game has a lot of potential fantasy value and I think that both quarterbacks are in play, and so is Jacoby Brissett. We'll have to see if t Y Hilton plays. That would make me feel a lot better about using Brissett this week. And as I mentioned on yesterday's ten Trend show, Brissett does have some touchdown regression coming. His touchdown rate this year is far above expectation. Now, with that being said, this is a good spot for any quarterback. He's playing in the highest over under game of the week against Kansas City, and even if that regression does hit, from an efficiency standpoint, he'll likely.

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Speaker 2: Throw the ball more.

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Speaker 1: Than usual given this matchup against the Chiefs. Kansas City ranks in the top ten and fantasy points against to the quarterback position, with the only big flop being Derek Carr. So Brissett is a good streamer if you need one, but I would feel better about it if t Y Hilton were playing.

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Speaker 2: Now. As for quarterbacks that I'm lower.

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Speaker 1: On versus the consensus, I'm sort of surprised to see Aaron Rodgers easily ranked as a top ten quarterback this week. Now, the positives are that he's Aaron Rodgers, and we know that there's a ceiling there, albeit one that's a little bit overstated.

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Speaker 2: But look at the negatives.

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Speaker 1: He's on the road, He's facing a Dallas team that hasn't faced a good quarterback yet this year, so there's some ambiguity with how strong this matchup is. And DeVante Adams probably isn't playing. So I don't mind Aaron Rodgers, but I think he's more of a fringe top ten play rather than a locked in one. There are enough question marks about that situation for me to rather play someone like Matt Ryan or Carson Wentz. I actually like Wentz a lot more than where he's being ranked two. And then there's Daniel Jones. After that big performance against Tampa Bay, he had an average one in Week four. He looked like a rookie in Week four, and I'm worried about him going up against Minnesota this week.

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Speaker 2: He's at home. That's good, but.

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Speaker 1: Minnesota's held Matt Ryan to a QB fourteen performance, Aaron Rodgers to a QB nineteen to one, Derek Carter QB twenty, and then last week we didn't see much from the Chicago quarterbacks. Adjusted for strength of opponent at Minnesota's defense is a top ten one according to Number fivereers expected points model. So if you're looking at Daniel Jones as a potential play this week, I think someone like Andy Dalton makes a lot more sense, even with Golden Tate coming back for Daniel Jones. Jordan Howard saw over half of Philadelphia's offensive snaps in Week four. He saw a season high fifty five point six percent of the Eagles running back carries. He saw a season high fourteen point eight percent of the team's targets, and he saw three goal line rushes. The Philadelphia backfield is going to be tough to predict and utilize each week. I totally get that. But Philadelphia is facing the Jets. They're huge favorites, so both Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders can eat. I'm just surprised that two of them are as close as they are right now in ranking over on Fantasy Pros, there are like four spots from one another. I strongly prefer Howard given what we saw last week, though Sanders could be a fine flex option. Now I've picked on Sony Michelle a good bit this year, but I don't mind him in this week's matchup against Washington. Washington's allowed to seventh's most running back rushing yards to start the season. They're coming off a game where Wayne Gollman finishes a top five option against them, and once again, game script should favor New England. That hasn't mattered all that much for Sony Michelle this year, but it was good to see him get nearly ninety percent of New England's running back rushes last week after seeing him get just forty one percent of them the week before. So if that usage keeps up, he should be fine for Week five, especially in a non PPR format.

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Speaker 2: I want to also note that the.

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Speaker 1: Gap between James Connor and Jalen Samuels this week doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, and that's all based on what we saw in Week four, which was Jaylen Samuels actually touching the ball more than James Connor did. Like I would choose Connor over Jaylen Samuels straight up, but there's a twenty eight running back player gap between those two players over on Fantasy pros.

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Speaker 2: If that's how people were viewing Jalen Samuels.

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Speaker 1: Then I guess I'm higher than most on Jaln Samuels, especially given Connor's dealing with a minor ankle injury. So I apparently like Jalen Samuels a lot more than the consensus. Now, my deeper play of the week would look better if Marlon Mack is indeed out with his ankle injury. But I think you can play Nihiim Hines as a desperation move even if Marlon Mack goes fandal Sports, because the Colts is eleven point underdogs, which means if gamescript goes as predicted, they'll be in hurry up mode. And when that's the case, it's Nahim Hines who can see the field. Heines had six targets last week in a negative game script, and you might be thinking that had something new with Marlon Mack getting injured, but head coach Frank Reich said that Marlon Mack wasn't medically ruled out of that game. I'm sure the snapshare wouldn't have favored Naim Hines the way that it did if Marlon Mack were perfectly healthy. But we've seen Hines with good target totals in negative game scripts, and this is the type of game where things could go south for Indianapolis. Now, I wouldn't play him in a standard league, but it's not a bad deep option in a PPR one. On the other side of things, I'm worried about Le'Veon Bell this week. Even if Sam Darnold does play like you can't bench Le'Veon Bell. He's seen eighty nine percent of New York's running back rushes this year and almost twenty five percent of the team's targets. His workload is insanity, but he's facing arguably the best run defense in the NFL, which means most of what he does this week is likely to come through the air, and his scoring upside isn't very strong. With the Jets having the second lowest implied team total of any team on this slate. I just think that we could be in store for another performance like we saw in Week three against New England, where Bell finishes the RB thirty one. It's not the best spot in the world for him, and I want to take a minute and talk about Leshawn McCoy too. Now, don't take this the wrong way. I think the McCoy's a fine play.

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Speaker 2: This weekend.

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Speaker 1: The Chiefs are big favorites, so he's likely to see some work. But McCoy saw fifty eight percent of Kansas City's running back rushes his past week, when Daryl Williams was at forty two percent and both players had an identical target share, it sounds like Damian Williams is not practicing two. That just adds to the potential mess that we'll see in that backfield in Week five. So I like Shady, but having him as a fringe RB one is a little bit aggressive. But as usual, if your running back as seeing volume, he's likely a decent starter. It's tough to knock a lot of running backs each week for matchups because it matters less when the position has so few players who are seeing significant work. Now a wide receiver this week, I love me some Tyler Boyd and with John Ross out, Audentate isn't a bad play either.

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Speaker 2: But let's focus on Tyler Boyd. He's played over sixty three.

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Speaker 1: Percent of the team snaps from the slot this season, which is the highest on the Bengals, and Arizona not only has been bad at stopping anyone in their secondary, but over forty percent of the targets seen against them this season have gone to pass catchers in the slot. It's one of the highest rates in football. They've allowed the most touchdowns, so they're tied for the most touchdowns allowed to players who are lined up in the slot as well. Now, as I mentioned, this game could see a lot of volume given the fast paced nature of it. So I think Tyler Boyd is a really really good option this week, at least a very very good high floor option. Some of you might be nervous about Alan Robinson with Chase Daniel under center, but I think that he's a really solid option still, especially this week against Oakland. The Raiders have allowed the sixth most fantasy to wideouts this year, and as I talked about on yesterday's ten Trend Show, Robinson is one of just a handful of receivers with a twenty percent target chair in each of his first four games this year. So that includes last week when Daniel was quarterbacking. So don't pull Alan Robinson from your lineup because of this quarterback change. I'm still gonna have a hard time benching Hollywood Brown where I have him as well. The matchup against Pittsburgh isn't bad at all, and as I keep saying with Brown, the peripherals are there. He's seen a quarter of Baltimore's targets this season, despite a slow start from the year from a snap standpoint, and only Mike Evans and Keenan Allen have more air yards than Hollywood Brown. Eventually, it's going to happen. Eventually he's going to hit. And then my last wide receiver that I'm interested in this week, or who I think that people are too low on, is Will Fuller. Fuller's been in disappointment this season and weekly PPR scoring, He's yet to finish higher than wide receiver forty eight in a single week this year. But with that being said, his last three games, I've seen a twenty four percent, a twenty one percent, and a nineteen percent target chair and according to airyards dot Com, Fuller actually ranked just outside the top ten in air yards and he and the Texans passing attack could be in store for a huge bounce back game this week against Atlanta, who looked awful last week without Kean O'Neil.

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Speaker 2: So I think Fuller's not a bad play in Week five.

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Speaker 1: Now, on the other side of things, I have some worries about Sterling Shepherd with Golden Tate returning, mostly because I don't know what the usage is going to look like and where he's gonna be lined up on the year. And this is according to Pro Football Focus, but this season, Shepherd's run about eighty percent of his routes from the slot. So what happens when Golden Tate, a slot receiver, is active, Shepard will probably move to the outside, where he's gonna find less advantageous matchups. So I think you can still play Sheppard this week, but there are some question marks with how his usage will look moving forward. And speaking of usage, Jujus Smith, Schuster's not seeing it without Ben Roethlisberger. He saw just thirteen percent of Pittsburgh's targets against Cincinnati on Monday Night. He has a far less enticing matchup this week against Baltimore, but yet he's still being ranked as a friend wide receiver. One of course, he has that type of upside, but until we start seeing more consistent volume, we shouldn't feel like he's that strong of a fantasy asset. We have to adjust with this new information. And the same goes for DJ Moore. I talked about this on the ten Trend Show yesterday that I keep referencing, but Moore seeing his target share dip dramatically with Kyle Allen under center. With Cam this year, it was in the twenty seven percent and twenty eight percent range. With Alan, it's barely been in the double digits.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: You can't bench Juju, but you may be able to bench DJ Moore against Jacksonville this week.

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Speaker 2: It's a good process move.

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Speaker 1: Even if he does come through and have a decent game, you have to see more volume before you can trust him. Jimmy Graham is technically a tight end streamer this week, or it was at the start of the week, so I figured that I talk about him in this tight end section on today's show. With DeVante Adams banged up last week, Graham saw some end zone work and he ended the game with an eighteen percent target share. His two previous games saw with a six percent share and a three percent share. So without DeVante Adams, he becomes a more important red zone threat for Green Bay, and he's not a terrible option at a very terrible position. And then there's Tyler Eifert. At this point, even my daughter who can only say the words touchdown in bubble even she knows to play tight ends against the Arizona Cardinals.

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Speaker 2: So far of the season, the Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: Have given up six touchdowns the tight ends. No other team has given up more than three. They've also allowed four hundred and thirty one receiving yards to the position, when the second place Buccaneers have allowed three hundred and sixty five. Eifert isn't hugely involved in the offense given his ten point six percent target share, but without John Ross and given this matchup, this could be a good week for him. Now, the first streaming defense that you can play this week is the Tennessee Titans. Now, at the time of this recording, I have no idea if Josh Allen is going to play for the Bills this weekend. But even if he does, it's not like it's a bad matchup for Tennessee. They're three point favorites. There's a low thirty eight and a half point over under over on Fandals sportsbook, and two of the four defenses to face the Bills this year have ranked in the top three and weekly scoring. The other two who didn't were the Giants and Bengals, two really bad units. So the Titans should be absolutely fine as a defensive play, and like I said in the fifteen Transactions episode earlier this week, the Carolina Panthers are in a great spot. They currently lead the league in sack rate and they're facing a Jacksonville team in Charlotte this week, so they're at home. But Jacksonville ranks just outside the top ten and sack rate allowed, and this game also has a pretty low over under, so the Panthers should provide a nice floor.

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Speaker 2: That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening.

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Speaker 1: If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. If you have start sick questions, you can always hit me up on there, or tune into my weekly Facebook live on the FanDuel Facebook page every Sunday morning at noon Eastern. I guess it's not morning, but it's at noon Eastern. That's the best place to reach me for those questions. Thanks everyone, I'll be back tomorrow for the last show of the week, the Mailbag episode