Ken Rosenthal's Inside Scoop: Manfred's tourney idea, D’backs not trading Ketel + Skubal’s shot, NPB/KBO surplus value obsession

00:00:05
Speaker 1: That's at the inside scoop with that FT senior insider Ken Rosenthal, big news about an hour or two before our show started, and this put out by Ken in the Athletic it sounds like Cautel Marte will not be traded this offseason, and that means maybe not ever for the rest of his career since he has no trade class kicking in soon. Ken, what else can you tell us?

00:00:26
Speaker 2: Just what you said, Scott that the Diamondbacks, after weeks of speculation and talks, have determined that they're not going to trade him and this is not posturing. They had made the statement Mike Haysen had their general manager right at the end of December, that hey, if we don't get this done soon, we're not going to do it. We're going to move on to other things. They are looking at their bullpen, They're looking at a right handed hitting first baseman. I don't know that they are out on Alex Bregman, in fact, I don't believe they are. But it becomes a little bit more difficult when you've got Marte on your books, albeit at an affordable price, to go get Bregman when you have these other needs as well. Remember They're without Corbyn Burns to start the season. They were without two of their key relievers, Ajpuck and Justin Martinez to start the season. These guys are all coming off Tommy Johns, so they've been trying to supplement their pitching and they're going to continue to do that. That was the only reason initially they were even entertaining trading Marte was if they could fill some of these needs. And maybe they felt as well that it might be best for Marte to move on, But they valued him very highly and they by not trading him, have shown they weren't simply trying to get rid of him. So this is where they are right now. And as you mentioned Scott, ten days into the season, he becomes a player with ten years of service, five consecutive with the same team, and thereby gains full no trade protection. He can veto anything at that time, so this really is their last window to trade him without restriction. You can still trade a guy with no trade clause, but he has to approve.

00:02:01
Speaker 3: Now do you think this was just a matter of not getting the right trade like you talk about, or our teams being too tight and our esteni about not wanting to give up certain players that other teams want.

00:02:13
Speaker 2: Todd, that's always in the eye of the beholder, right and I know, and they have freely admitted that they were asking high and rightly. So kateel Marte is an All Star. He is a guy who is one of the best second basemen in the league from an offensive standpoint, still good defensively. He is a player that is valued highly. And on top of all that, his deal is considered by the industry to be quite affordable. His luxury tax number annually is fourteen point six million. That's not a lot in this day and age when you see the Kyle Tuckers of the world looking for thirty five forty, when, of course Soto and Guerrero and Otani are crazy much above that. Kateel Marte might not be those guys, but he's pretty good and for fourteen point six million a year from a luxury tax standpoint, that is very appealing. So the Diamondbacks had all this to pedal, so to speak, but no team bit to their satisfaction.

00:03:10
Speaker 1: So how does this affect the rest of the market. As you told us last time around, a lot of players are intertwined to take Catel off I know you've reported about the Cardinals and Brendan Donovan. Bobashett essentially is a second basement free agent, or at least it appears to be that way for most teams. So how does this help the puzzle pieces fit into place so we can get some signings done.

00:03:32
Speaker 2: It's a good question, Scott, And certainly let's look at Boston just as an example. They were a team that reportedly were in on Katel Marte. Now that katl Marte is not available to them, it's Bregmann or Bishett for their infield if that's the way they want to go, and that clearly is their area of needs, so it should influence those particular free agents from that perspective. Well, there's one option that's not there any longer. And the same goes for Brendan. Now, I don't know that Brendan Donovan was looked at the same way as Kateell Marte. It's a different set of scenarios, entirely two years of control, not quite the same offensive type player that Marte is, but more defensively versatile. And I know that Seattle, for example, had and has a desire for Brendan Donovan because of that defensive versatility, whereas Marte they were cooler on because he would only have played second base for them. So it does, or theoretically should, open up these things a little bit more. But I don't know that any one move is going to necessarily start all the others. It just is logjammed right now.

00:04:43
Speaker 4: Ken, what's the move that'll on logjam?

00:04:45
Speaker 2: It?

00:04:45
Speaker 4: Is it Bobachett signing? Is it Kyle Tucker signing? Who was it in? Where did the Phillies come from?

00:04:49
Speaker 5: On Bobachow We kind of discussed this a couple of days ago, and they were kind of a team like, oh, they'd have to maybe move Bome or Stod or somebody to make this work. But here they are setting up a zoom call with them.

00:05:00
Speaker 2: Right and AJ, I'm not exactly sure which is the first domino and how that would affect the others. It seems to me that you have three groupings of the better free agents here of two, three of two. And what I'm talking about is Ranger Suarez and fromber Valdez, both left handed pitchers. When one goes, I would think the other would follow. Tucker and Bellinger similar left handed hitting outfielders, Bregman and Bischett right handed hitting infielders. I would think those are the dominoes that would need to fall one of those for the other. I don't know that Tucker would necessarily affect fromber Valdez, for example, or even Bishett. Now. As for the Phillies, they are a team that has been trying to sign JT. Real Mutto for the longest time, trying to re sign him at least for now, that has gone nowhere. So they started looking around and saying, okay, what if we look at some other things, some other guys who are still lingering on the market, and Bishett would be an interesting fit for them. They've been trying to trade Alec Bohm for quite some time now, so they would open up third base. Presumably they could even trade Bryce and Stott, though I don't know that they want to do that, And then Bashett fits. If you get rid of Boehm's money and you bring in a catcher some other way, you can make it work. And the Phillies don't necessarily worry about the dollars the way other teams do anyway, So it seems that this all emanated from their frustration or their inability at least to sign JT. Real Muto quickly. Now they're looking at other ways to go about building their team, and we'll see how it all plays out. Some people have asked, well, they're just trying to leverage JT. Reel Muto with Bishett. I don't see that at all. They're two different categories of players, two different categories of what they will cost. This is simply another idea for them to get a younger position player into an older group and maybe go about it that way.

00:06:59
Speaker 5: Ken, Another interesting free agentcy is Cody Bellinger. You know, there's rumors of the Yankees and they're thirty million dollars a year. We don't know the length of the contract, and this and that, and then there's people saying he wants thirty seven thirty eight million dollars. Are the Yankees bidding against themselves? And if this offer is out there, let's say five one fifty, which is you know, thirty million a.

00:07:19
Speaker 6: Year, Lil freeze, Ken, we're back.

00:07:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I know the question, and aj I don't know that the Yankees are the only team. I'm sure they have some concerns about bidding against themselves, but the Mets have been reported to be on Bellinger as well, And when players of a certain level are out there and people say they have no market, I'm always skeptical because good players always have teams interested. Now the question is at what level are they interested in? And Cody Bellinger, yes, thirty plus million a year for five years would be a good deal for a guy who has not gotten a long term deal yet. Right at the same time, he's probably looking at it like, I'm younger than Alonzo, I'm younger than Shorber, and those guys got five years, why shouldn't I get longer? That would be his perspective on it. I'm not saying it's right, but as Brendan Cuddy of The Athletic reported yesterday, if he got a thirty million dollar aav it would be the fourth highest for an outfielder. That's pretty good, and five years isn't bad either. So I'm sure Bellinger and his agent, Scott Orris do want greater length, and they have every right to seek it. I just don't know that they're going to get it, and it certainly sounds like they're not going to get it from the Yankees. And then the question becomes as you mentioned, Daja, where else would the Mets do that. The Mets have been more inclined to do shorter deals too, So it's really curious.

00:08:47
Speaker 3: You talk about those two teams, but out west, the Dodgers are always lurking. Are they in on any of these guys? As you know right now in your talks.

00:08:56
Speaker 2: The Dodgers are a team that they like to say, well, we hang around the backboard, and what they mean by that is we wait and see, and if certain players' markets fall below perhaps where they anticipated the players anticipated, then we jump and we grab the rebound and we get in. Will that happen with any of these guys? I'm not sure They've been linked to Tucker, They've been linked to Bishett Bishek to play second base for them. But it seems to me that any interest by the Dodgers is predicated on the markets not being with those players initially envisioned. Could that happen? Yes? Could the Dodgers determine? Well, maybe the market doesn't fall to quite the len that we would have wanted, but it's at a place where we're good, we're comfortable. Okay, I can see it happening Edwin Diaz that was not a guy they necessarily were linked to at the start of the offseason. What were they saying, we want a one year closer. Well, when Edwin Diaz wasn't getting five years and when they could get him for three with deferrals, they said, let's do it. So that is how they've generally operated, or often operated. It's kind of how they got Freddy Freeman when his market collapsed, and others as well. So we'll see what happens with the Dodgers. But TDD, you're right, they can never be ruled out because they're always kind of there in the background.

00:10:16
Speaker 4: True. True, All right, Ken, you know not really.

00:10:19
Speaker 5: People are gonna ask what do you think of the schoobl arbitration and the thirteen million dollar gap? But I just want to know who wins the team or school.

00:10:28
Speaker 2: I've been asking that question this morning of different people in the game, AJ and kind of getting different answers. And there are a couple of factors in play here that stand out to me anyway, and just talking to people and learning more. One, the Tiger's number was lower than David Price for and his was a record for an arbitration pitcher. Nineteen point seventy five million. Schooble is at nineteen million. Price was eleven years ago, and I had one person point out to me this morning the Tigers should have, if at least filed at twenty million, just to say, okay, we're offering him a record arbitration amount for a picture. I don't know why they didn't do that. It seems to me that would have been wise to do. The other side of this is that the rays that Schooble is seeking is something along the lines of twenty two million. That is unprecedented in arbitration. One player has not gone from RB three, arbitration three to arbitration four, arbitration two to arbitration three and made that kind of jump. David Price, we just talked about him. He went from a higher level than Schooble. When he got his nineteen point seventy five he was at around fourteen, if my memory serves correct Schoobles coming from ten. So arbitration is not necessarily a process that most fans would think is logical, But it's based on all these precedents and all the things that have happened before. That's what precedent is. So I'm not sure who wins. My inclination would be to say the Tigers win. But you know what really should happen here, What really should happen here is that they should settle somewhere in the middle around twenty five million. And I know if the Tigers are a file on trial team, that they're going right to a hearing. Well, I've never thought the file on trial thing was such a great idea in the first place, in all circumstances. Maybe in some and in this circumstance, it would behoove them, and it might behoove schoobl and Boris as well. To settle somewhere in the middle.

00:12:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you're gonna break your protocol, Derek School is a pretty good guy to break the protocol with.

00:12:36
Speaker 6: He's done a lot for the Tigers, so that makes sense.

00:12:38
Speaker 2: But one thing too worth explaining. So the midpoint is twenty five point five million, and what the Tigers must do is prove that simply he is less worth worth less than twenty five point five And what Boris and School must do is prove that he is worth more. That's how these things are determined, and we'll see how it works out. His award would be unprecedented, not just for a pitcher, it would be the highest arbitration award ever. Soto is the record at thirty one million. Shohyo Tani was at thirty million. Pitchers are not the same as position players, of course, but there is a lot at stake here, obviously a lot in play. But the process is again not something that you can just simply say, well, he's here, so he should be here. That's not necessarily how it works.

00:13:29
Speaker 1: The difference for me is that I don't think there is a comp for Schoogle with the current arbitration process. Looking back at our guys not free agents, and so it sounds like they're fundamentally challenging the whole system, Like, hey, the system's messed up. The guy who has the record pitched in twenty fifteen for this, that's crazy, that's eleven years ago. It's like there's nobody else good. And I know not everybody gets to this point in art, but anyway, it's going to be an interesting battle. I did want to get to one more with you, Ken, based on comments from Rob Manfred about a potential in season tournament or split season your thoughts.

00:14:04
Speaker 2: I don't love an end season tournament. I have heard for a while now about the possibility of a split season. I believe my colleague get Fox John Smoltz is one of these people in favor of that. And there is a certain logic to a split season. You'd start over, you can have two dra deadlines, you'd have the ability of more teams to get in the mix, perhaps even than they are now. So that is something worth exploring. But as Manfred said accurately, the schedule in baseball makes it a little bit more challenging, a little bit more difficult perhaps to accomplish one of those things. I know a lot of fans say, hey, man leave it as it is and don't mess with it. And Manfred even mentioned that, he said, hey, we have a fan base that is accustomed two one hundred and sixty two game seasons since what nineteen sixty one. That would be hard to abandon. And the sport has abandoned certain things over the years, and they've expanded playoffs and they've had some innovations, but once sixty two has been kind of sacred. So if you split it into eighty one and eighty one, okay, maybe that works. But again, there are some other things that would have to be figured out, and I'm not sure totally where I stand on it. The idea is intriguing, though, the idea of doing that at least is worthy of discussion. I don't know that I would do it, but I'd like to hear a good plan that would maybe make it a strong recommendation.

00:15:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know you want to keep fans engaged for a longer period of time. Some fans are already out of it by April or May, and.

00:15:37
Speaker 6: It still feels gimmicky.

00:15:38
Speaker 2: But whatever.

00:15:38
Speaker 1: We again, we can spend a lot more time on it once we get more details. And just because NBA does it and they've done some things better than MLB, we don't have to be the copycat league. But here we are. And I like that he floats it out there to get the public perception. That's why we talk about it. Thank you, Rob Manford for the content for the day. Ken, thank you for joining us. We'll talk to you on Monday, or actually we'll hear from you on Monday on Fair and we'll see on Tuesday.

00:16:00
Speaker 2: Thanks guys.

00:16:01
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, we're talking pitching with Cody Stavenhagen, who is a writer for the Athletic covering the Tigers among other topics and one of the stars of Tiger Territory, part of the FT Network. Well, you've got some fodder to cover this week on the show, Cody. I know the Tigers haven't been super active. They had their two signings of Kenley Jansen and Kyle Finnegan that stand out.

00:16:22
Speaker 6: But here we go with the Schooble battle. We go from the trade rumors.

00:16:26
Speaker 1: To the battle between him and the team over arbitration figures. Can you lay out what you wrote in the Athletic?

00:16:33
Speaker 7: Well, yeah, Scott, it's really quite the twist and what's already been a weird off season saga. They went from trade rumors to now the Tigers and Trek Scuogle face the largest gap, the largest salary gap in MLB arbitration history. Scott Borris and Trek Scuble filed to make thirty two million next year. The Tigers filed to pay Schooble nineteen millions, so a thirteen million dollar gap. We'll see that sides could continue negotiate, but right now it looks like this is one track to go to a February hearing, and a February hearing that could have a lot of precedent on the line. Nineteen million sounds low compared to thirty two million, but it's not completely out of line with arbitration norms. The most picture has ever made an arbitration is David Price at nineteen point seven to five million. Granted that was eleven years ago and Trek Scuball was coming off a better year than David Price probably ever had, but thirty two million would represent easily the largest raised in arbitration history. If Scooba were to get that would probably set a whole new precedent for how stars and particularly star pitchers are treated in the arbitration system.

00:17:42
Speaker 3: Now my question to you, well, first the first question, do you see this going to arbitration? Do you think they will come to an agreement beforehand?

00:17:50
Speaker 2: Do you see that?

00:17:51
Speaker 3: Or do you think one side is very standstill on where they want to you know, get paid or make the payment of.

00:17:59
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's definitely the biggest question at hand, Toad. I think it would make a lot of sense for the sides to continue negotiating. Just my opinion, Schooble's probably worth more than nineteen and less than thirty two. The two sides could get there to a number in between if they wanted to keep negotiating. My sense right now, I don't know. I kind of feel like both sides might be pretty dug in. It seems to me like Scott Boris wants to use this as a way to break the arbitration system a little bit. And the Tigers, look, if they wanted to pay Trek Scooble a little bit more, all they had to do was file for a higher number, and maybe this could have gone a little better than it is right now. The Tigers typically operate is what's called a file and trial team, which means they file a number and if there's no agreement, we'll see you at the arbitration table. Now they've made a couple exceptions, it usually results in negotiating a multi year deal, sometimes with an option that's just going to be declined. But the Tigers tend to be pretty tough negotiators. We all know Scott Boris is a tough negotiator. The easy solution is to keep talking here, but I wouldn't be shocked if this actually ends up going to a hearing.

00:19:08
Speaker 3: Now, my second question is we talked about this earlier. David Price his first year, nineteen point seventy five million, the highest one as we know, no Cy Youngs, Derek Scuobel, two Cy Youngs, the best picture in baseball. How can you start off in nineteen million dollars is my question if you're if you're the Tigers, where are they getting that number from?

00:19:31
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean I think they're they're basing it off. Guy is like David Price, who did have one Cy Young he won the say Young in twenty twelve, or from Bravaldez made eighteen, which I think is second most ever for a pitcher that was just one year ago. Scooble was better than from Bravaldez. They're only valuing him at one million better. I think it's fair to say that's a little low.

00:19:53
Speaker 2: Scooble.

00:19:55
Speaker 7: The projections kind of vary. Spot track had him at twenty two point five million. I feel like that's probably a little bit of a safer number given the two Cy Youngs, given two years of dominance. But arbitration is also generally based on track record, the whole body of work. Schooble the early years of his career, he was hurt, he was inconsistent. That kind of started him at a lower floor, whereas David Price was a super two player, so we actually got to go through arbitration four times instead of the normal three. It's generally a camp based system, right, One thing Scott Boris is bringing to the table. If you're in your fifth year, we don't just have to compare you to what David Price did eleven years ago. We can compare you to anyone. Zach Wheeler, Garrett Cole, Scoobol was better than those guys last year. And that's why Boris seems to be kind of shooting for the moon here.

00:20:43
Speaker 1: Cody, can you elaborate on why the Tigers can be tough to negotiate with?

00:20:48
Speaker 6: Like what I don't want to say.

00:20:49
Speaker 1: What gives them the right? But take us behind the scenes on how that's been. Is it a Scott Harris thing. Scott's done a really nice job building up some core players for to try that's right, But it seems like either he or ownership has not allowed him to kind of push the chips in further, to build upon what they've had, which is a lot of success the last couple of years, or to try and actually not have this issue and just throw an extension off or at schoogle or yeah, like you said, throw a little bit of a higher arbitration number. This almost seems contentious to me, and I just want to get more on the psychology of who is doing this. Is it Chrisilich, is it Scott Hires. Are they both on the same page where they like to be aggressive and they don't care if it's the best player on the team by far?

00:21:35
Speaker 7: Well, yeah, I mean I think the Tigers are clearly pretty numbers based, pretty data driven. Again, they're using their comparisons to say it's reasonable to pay trek'scuoble nineteen million dollars. Now, maybe they didn't expect Scott Boris to file at thirty two. Maybe they expected him to file at twenty four, and the two sides easily could have struck a middle ground. I don't know exactly how that went down, but the Tigers do have a reputation in the league of being tought inotiate with, of being a little stubborn. Whether that's in trade talks we saw them not wanting to part with prospects at last year's trade deadline, or whether that's free agent deals. They tend to come up with their numbers, and it seems like they tend to stick to them.

00:22:15
Speaker 2: Now.

00:22:15
Speaker 7: They have overpaid for guys Alex Cobb, they paid Drew Anderson seven million this year, but especially operating at the higher levels, I think they're pretty cautious. People are going to use the nineteen million to again paint them as being cheap when it comes to the best pitcher in baseball. But again, there's just not a lot of precedent for any pitcher getting more than this in arbitration. That's what the Tigers are banking this one. Scott Boris is using more common sense. Hey, this guy is the best player in the game. He should get a lot more than all these other guys have in the past.

00:22:48
Speaker 5: Cody, you mentioned the file and trial and there's people out there that.

00:22:51
Speaker 4: Don't know what file and trial is.

00:22:52
Speaker 5: It means if you file numbers, teams automatically go to the arbitration case. What the Tigers make in exception here, if there's any chance to keep Trek scouble. I've been through arbitration. I've told the story. It sucks for the player. You will bunk out of that place and you're like, I hate that team. Corbyn Burns has talked about it. Players that have gone to that trial walk out of there with a completely different feeling for the GM and the organization that they've been a part of, especially like Trek Scuble, who's been there his entire professional career. Is there any chance they would make an exception and say, hey, Trek, what if we give you twenty eight million or twenty seven or thirty or whatever it is? Or are they just going to be so stubborn and say, you know what, we're losing them at the end of the year.

00:23:31
Speaker 4: Anyways, We'll just take our chances. Yeah.

00:23:35
Speaker 7: I think that's a good question, and I think there are a few things at play here. One, let's be real, the Tigers likely are not signing Trek Scouble to an extension. There's been no indication of any real movement on that front. I think Schooball and Bors both want to set a record in free agency. Anything that Tigers throw at them is just going to be used as a starting point for negotiations with other teams next offseason. I don't think they can sign them. No matter what happens now, it is still worth considering. Is it worth for lack of a better term, pissing off your best player in his final year before free agency, when you have a good team, a team that could really make a postseason run if some things go well, and I think that's where it might be worth the Tigers being open to keep talking about this, because you're right, think this could get contentious. I think Scott Boris is prepared to exercise some theater in front of an arbitration panel. I think this could get heated and could get ugly. The Tigers have already been walking a little bit of a tightrope with all the trade rumors and everything regarding Schooble. For the most part, the team's handled it well. Schooble's handled it well, but at some point this was bound to get a little bit awkward, and I think this situation puts us there. I think this could certainly get awkward, especially if the Tigers go in front of a panel and say Trek's not actually worth that much, and if Scott Boris goes in front of a panel and tears down the Tigers' arguments. I just don't see that have a friendly resolution. Even if both parties should say, hey, this is just business, there's going to be there has to be a bitter taste that would come out of that room, I would think.

00:25:10
Speaker 1: Cody, I'll ask the bigger picture Tiger's question. They're going to be focused on this battle for a little bit of time. Are they focused on anything else? I think most Tiger fans are pretty pissed off right now. Kenley Jansen, Kyle Finnegan cool, happy, Great, that helps the bullpen, But this is another offseason where it appears that they might not make a big splash. Last year they made an effort, but the effort was not good enough according to Alex Spragman's camp, and that proved to be right because he got his opt out after one year and here he goes again where he'll probably get more money. So they were wrong on that one. What's next for the team. Are they actually going to do anything else to try and improve this current roster? If they're going to keep Trek Skoogle and this might be the best winning window you're left that they have.

00:25:54
Speaker 6: In a while.

00:25:56
Speaker 7: Yeah, the sexy move everyone wants to see is probably not talk about the Tigers being, you know, kind of dug in on their stances. I think they're dug in on doubling down on the next wave of young position players. Obviously that's risky, prospects don't always pan out, but it seems like that's what this front off is is pretty intent on doing. They're not in on Alex Bragman right now. I don't think they're gonna get in on Boba Schett. Maybe they could always add another pitcher, but even I'm not sure it would be a top of the line guy. They're probably not one hundred percent done this offseason, but I don't see anything big happening, especially on the position player front.

00:26:33
Speaker 6: All Right, Cody, I want to get to hold up.

00:26:36
Speaker 4: Hold up.

00:26:37
Speaker 5: It's amazing because they were they were disclosed, Cody. We were there in Seattle from going to the LCS right in making a run to go deep in the playoffs.

00:26:45
Speaker 4: I mean, they were one hit away.

00:26:47
Speaker 5: Just it's mind boggling to me because I remember that Mike Ilich, not Chris Vilich, Mike Ilitch, and he'd be like, Oh.

00:26:53
Speaker 4: We're this close.

00:26:54
Speaker 5: Okay, we're gonna go get David Price, and we're gonna go get you know, whoever took Princefield, or we're gonna go get whoever we need to get us try at least to get us to the next level. So it's just such a different mindset from the It's like, wow, is this the same Tigers? You know, I know it's not because mister Illig passed away a while ago and his son now runs a team. But wow, it's just such a different mindset that, you know, the Tigers because if you for me, but being someone that was in the Central for so long, the Tigers have the city and the power and the fan base to really do something and take a step and control this division for years to come. But it's just like, oh, well we have mcgonagale come in and you know, Joeb we'll be back at some point, and oh, we'll just wait for them and then hope we play good enough and then if we just get in it's good enough.

00:27:39
Speaker 2: Well.

00:27:39
Speaker 5: No, like they haven't won since what eighty four, right, Restore the Roar eighty four?

00:27:44
Speaker 7: I mean it's been a long time now, Yeah, it's it's been a long time. And the unfortunate reality, you know, you just said it, Mike Ilich is dead. This is not the same Tigers of the mid twenty tens. They run things a lot differently now. They're not quite a small market club. They run kind of a mid market payroll, but they're pretty focused on development and being one of these new wave player development driven organizations. I think there's a real argument that they should do a little more, that maybe they are one player away, one veteran bad away. The Tigers will tell you that they made the Alds and had a great season with the third most played appearances of players under twenty five. They think they're young, they think they're only going to get better. They want to maintain flexibility, both in terms of their roster, both in terms of payroll. So it's definitely, you know, a lot of varying approaches. It's not what a lot of fans want to see. I can kind of twist my head and sometimes see the team's logic, but I think it's definitely focused not just on twenty twenty six. I think they're looking at twenty seven, twenty eight, twenty nine. There have been other teams that have done that in the past, and it doesn't always work out, So I think it's it's certainly a little bit of a gamble in its own way, the approach that they are taking.

00:28:55
Speaker 3: You wrote an article about how pitchers are seeking a boost from Japan or even Korea and the MPB and KBO. I mean, case in point, you have Cody Ponce who went for another year back to Japan and absolutely dark excuse me, Korea absolutely dominated out there, and now he gets a three year, thirty million dollar deal. Talk a little bit about you know what you wrote, and you know about how pitchers are getting better as they go out there and then when they come back.

00:29:22
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:29:22
Speaker 7: I think one of the more interesting trends we've seen this offseason is the market that's developed from guys coming back from Japan and really especially Korea. Cody Ponce got three years and thirty million, Drew Anderson the Tigers played seven million, and other teams wanted him. Ryan Weiss is going to the Houston Astros and people are really optimistic about what he could be. These are dudes who are going to be parts of MLB rotations. And then Anthony k with the White Sox and Foster Griffin with the Nationals are coming back from Japan. These are guys who I feel like a decade ago just might not have existed. Most of them were first or second round pick, good prospects who didn't work out and in the past. Maybe these guys would toil away in Triple A and maybe they make it back, maybe they don't. It seems like players are becoming more willing to go overseas Korea, especially pitch, refine their stuff, add a pitch, do something different, and get better. MLB teams as a result, are paying a little more attention to these leagues. They're using their pitch models stuff plus to say, hey, we know the KBO is a week hitting environment, but this guy's pretty nasty. We have reason to believe it can translate. And these guys are then coming back in their late twenties or early thirties with multiple teams wanning their services. These aren't minor league deals, these are major league contracts. Part of the reason is teams being quote unquote cheap. Everyone's obsessed with finding value, and we all know the middle part of the free agent market can get a little bit dicey. You see guys like Luis Severino getting fifteen twenty million dollars struggled last year for the A's. I think team are saying, hey, rather than pay some veteran fifteen to twenty million, what if we pluck a guy out of the KBO pay him half that, and we think there could be just as much upside. This has been percolating for a couple of years and there are at least five guys who kind of fit this bill. I think this season is going to be a little bit of a litmus test for if this can actually work, because although it's cool, there are some good stories, there is also uncertainty when guys are coming back from overseas. But it's becoming more common than it used to. It's no longer like you go over there and you're probably not coming back.

00:31:35
Speaker 6: Hey, Cody, what did you think?

00:31:37
Speaker 1: I know we're talking about the US players, but what did you think of the Japanese market for the players that we're playing an MPB for a long time and are Japanese born players Like I don't even know if I want to go murk Kamie.

00:31:50
Speaker 6: I kind of want to go more on the Ami.

00:31:52
Speaker 1: Factor here based on your article and how it, in my opinion, seemed like they might have undervalued him.

00:31:59
Speaker 7: Yeah, it'll be a fascinating player to watch this year. I think he was getting a lot of hype because there's always a lot of hype around, you know, the big players coming over from Japan. Some of the scouts I talked to in the league weren't all that impressed, or at least saw a lot of risk.

00:32:16
Speaker 6: In his profile.

00:32:17
Speaker 7: Now, this is a guy who can throw in the upper nineties, who has a good splitter, who has a good slider, but no one was projecting him to be Yamamoto or even Showda In Monaga. He was viewed, you know, more along the lines of kind of a number four starter with even some reliever risk. So I thought it was possible he could get a little bigger deal just based on the upside. But I also wasn't totally shocked at the deal he signed. It seemed to me more in line with what I had heard from evaluators across the league than some of the numbers, you know, one hundred plus million being floated out there where I just think the teams see some risk in his profile. They want to see if he can overcome adversity in a different league. There's always concerns guys coming over the all is different. So he may's a really good pitcher, But again, no one was ever proclaiming him to be Yamamoto, So I wasn't totally shocked at the contract ended up being a little lower than some people.

00:33:11
Speaker 5: Thought, Cody, before I let you go, why don't mid market teams take more flyers on some of these Japanese guys coming over? Meaning the amis like you said, because he didn't get as much. Now, the White Sox did it with Mark Kami, But why would they not? It's just because the risk is too great and they don't They can't afford to give a guy like a my seventeen eighteen million dollars for a couple of years. But if it does work out, they make that money back hand over fist in the Japanese marketing and all that stuff. So why are some of the smaller market teams like this would be a perfect guy, I thought, for we use the Tigers who you cover, right, he could fit flip right in there into the third fourth spot in the rotation. And if he turns out to be something, wow, we really got something with Schooble and Flaherty in a mine.

00:33:57
Speaker 4: You know, do you see what I'm saying?

00:33:59
Speaker 5: Like, well, I just don't understand why some smaller market teams don't go a little bit more into this.

00:34:04
Speaker 7: It could be as simple as they don't think these guys are that good. You look at Murakami, you look at Okamoto. These guys are corner players. No one quite knows how I mean, a Kimodo can probably hit philosity a lot better than Murakami, but no one quite knows what they're gonna be at the MLB level, even tatsoy Eme. Like, we just talked about the risk, So it's possible that a lot of teams just didn't have great evaluations on these players. It's also possible that the risk is just too much, which in a way relates to the thing we were talking about with the KBO. If you're looking to get someone you realistically think can be a two war pitcher, would you rather pay a much higher figure eighteen twenty million, knowing there's some upside, or would you rather play it safe pay seven million for Drew Anderson you think he can be a two war pitcher, and if he's not, it's only seven million. You just move on. You find someone else. I'm not saying that philosophy is right, but I think that's clearly what the Tigers and some other teams have done. It's a little bit safer, it's a little bit cheaper, and it also speaks to like I think teams really value volume with pitching injuries are so volatile. If you can get three or four guys a pay guys seven mil, sign three guys on minor league deals, hope one of them hits. Is that a better strategy than paying a fistful of money to someone who you don't quite know what they are going to be, even if there's a little more upside. I don't know if that's right, but I think that's kind of what the thinking is.

00:35:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the philosophy. That makes sense, and it's great homework on a great article. Check it out in The Athletic. Cody Stavenhiggen joining us, and of course a fresh Tiger Territory episode.

00:35:41
Speaker 6: Did you do one yet or it's coming out on the Schoogle News.

00:35:44
Speaker 7: Because I know we got one this morning school now.

00:35:46
Speaker 1: Okay, so everyone check that out and if you want to hear more on the spice between the two sides, go for it.

00:35:52
Speaker 6: Cody, have a good weekend. Thanks for joining us. Good to see you, dude.

00:35:55
Speaker 7: All right, Thanks guys, good stuff. Appreciate it.

00:35:59
Speaker 6: There.

00:35:59
Speaker 1: It is Tiger Territory part of the FT Network. It's Kieran, it's Cody. You get a little Austin Jackson in there too. Go download, Go subscribe, do the deal.