NYC, NJ and VA in Focus on Election Day; Shutdown Pressure Builds
On today's podcast:
1) Zohran Mamdani’s lead heading into the New York City mayoral election has withstood a furious push from Republicans, establishment Democrats and a coalition of Wall Street dealmakers. Aspects of Mamdani’s campaign that some thought would doom his candidacy — his vociferous criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, his past calls to defund the police and his refusal to flee from the political label of socialist — haven’t turned off a plurality of New York voters, despite a torrent of campaign spending from some of the city’s wealthiest residents. Instead, the 34-year-old assemblyman’s campaign — with its focus on core economic concerns combined with an online charm offensive and occasional searing barb at his critics — is working well enough that some political observers see a model for future Democratic candidates and races. Nationally, Tuesday’s results could provide a muddled message for Democrats.
2) Governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey and California’s redistricting ballot measure are among the elections on ballots Tuesday, providing a barometer of voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. While Mamdani’s progressive campaign has given him a lead in New York, the candidates leading the polls in governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia — Representative Mikie Sherrill and former Representative Abigail Spanberger, respectively — come from the more centrist range of the Democratic spectrum.
The race in New Jersey has tightened in the past few weeks between Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, as voters express dismay over high electricity bills and general affordability issues under the state’s current Democratic governor. Republicans would love to eke out a victory there — even as polls narrowly favor Sherrill — after President Donald Trump endorsed Ciattarelli and called him “100% (PLUS!)” on the MAGA agenda.
In Virginia, Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger looks likely to prevail over the Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. The huge number of federal workers in Northern Virginia, frustrated by the government shutdown and the DOGE cuts, gave Spanberger a built-in constituency. And she’s made sure to talk about issues key to local voters — inflation, schools, health care — rather than solely going with an anti-Trump message. If Democrats lose one of these races, expect even more hand-wringing over the party’s tarnished national brand and its inability to capitalize on Trump’s unpopularity.
3) As the government shutdown enters its 34th day, lawmakers face mounting pressure to reach a resolution. Major US airports are facing staffing shortages leading to ground delays, the distribution of food assistance is up in the air, and more federal workers are missing paychecks as the shutdown is on track to become the longest in history. Senators are increasingly optimistic about finding a path to reopen the government, but any resolution will likely have to wait until after tomorrow’s off-year elections, which could sway either side to move depending on the results.
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Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Good Morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. Karen, we begin with election day from coast to coast, starting with a key race in New York for mayor of the city. Bloomberg's Lisa Matteo is in Manhattan with the very latest Lisa. Good morning, Good morning, Nathan, and now one of the candidates getting a last minute endorsement from President Donald Trump. In a social media post, a president said, quote, whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You must vote for him and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it. Mundummy is not now. President Trump also called Democratic Socialist frontrunner Zora. Mundami a communist. He threatened to withhold federal funds quote other than the very minimum as required from the city if Mundummy is elected. Now the post didn't seem to bother Mamdanni. He campaigned across the city yesterday. The MAGA movements embraced at Andrew Cuomo is reflective of Donald Trump's understanding that this would be the best mayor for him. Now, both Cuomo and Mundammi have promised to defend the city from President Trump. Cuomo made that evidence while talking to voters yesterday. I can stand up to Trump. Tump will go through Mamdani like a hot knife through butter Well. Meanwhile, Republican candidate Curtis lee Wamp still on the ballot, he despite calls to drop out of the race President Trump saying a vote for Sleewha is a vote for Mundammi. Elon Musk agreed with a post on next saying, quote, a vote for Curtis is really a vote for Mundummy or whatever his name is, because he spelled his name wrong in the post and he ended it by saying vote Cuomo. Lisa Matteo, Bloomberg Radio, all. Right, Lisa, thank you. We want to stay in the Tri state area. There's a key gubernatorial race in New Jersey with Republican politician and businessman Jack Chitdarelli facing off again to Democrat congresswoman Mikey Cheryl for the seat held by term limited Governor Phil Murphy. For more on that race, we go to Bloomberry's de Niche spelling Greene. The stakes are high in New Jersey, where the governor's race is seen by many as a test for just how much ground Republicans can gain in a one's very heavily democratic state. Cheryl has been slamming Chitarelli's support for President Trump on. Every single occasion. Jack has decided, I'm going. To defend Trump. Chittarelli has heavy praise for the President. We're very thankful of all that he's done to secure the border and enhance national security. We're very thankful all that he's done to improve the economy. President Trump in New Jersey campaigning for Chittererelly Mikey will send New Jersey into a death spire, and former President Barack Obama has been campaigning for Cheryl. We need leaders like Mikey, public servants who are in it for the right reason. And this race has tightened appreciably in the past few weeks as voters expressed dismay of arising electric bills and the overall cost of living. Hee's Pelgrity Bloomberg Radio. Denise, thank you. We're also tracking one more governor's race in Virginia. Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earl Sears are vying to become the Commonwealth's first woman governor. Earl Sears would be the first black woman to lead any state if she wins, but University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato says, the odds are in Spanburger's favor. You have to search hard in Virginia, the state in which I live, to find any analyst who thinks Earl Sears has any real chance of winning. Most people will bet that it's going to be a Spanburger landslide. Larry Sabato with the University of Virginia. Spanberger has been running as a center left candidate focused on living costs and the impact of President Trump's tax cut law on healthcare. Earl Sears has given high marks to the President, but he has not actively campaigned for her Well Nathan. The other major race to watch is in California, where voters are deciding on Proposition fifty. It's a ballet question that would replace the state's congressional map drawn by and independent commission and replace it with one from the Democratic controlled legislature. Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom as spearheading the effort. Prof fifty is not about drawing lines on a map. It is about holding the line to what makes us. Who we are. California Governor Gavin Newsom's push could a race up to five Republican held districts and offset redistrict efforts in Texas and other Republican led states. More than one hundred million dollars have been spent on TV and cable ads in the Prop fifty campaign. More than two thirds of it came from supporters. Let's turn back to markets now. Karen stocks are selling off on this election day morning. Wall Street chief executives say investors should race for an equity pullback, and that such a correction may be positive. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon spoke at the twenty twenty five Global Financial Leader's Investment Summit in Hong Kong. Of course, it is likely they'll be, you know, at ten to twenty percent draw down an equity market sometimes in the next twelve to twenty four months. And I'd say there are very few people in this room that don't think that that's a meaningful possibility. It doesn't mean that the general direction of capital flows, investment portfolio allocations changing. It just means things run and then they pull back. So people can reassess. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon's sentiments of a possible stock pullback re echoed by Morgan Stanley, CEO Ted Pick and Mike Gitlan, who helps oversee about three trillion dollars at Capital Group. The S and P five hundred is trading at twenty three times forward earnings estimates. That is above its five year average of twenty times. Well Nathan also adding pressure to the overall market this morning, Pallenteer shares of the AI darling are falling. They're down more than seven and a half percent right now, despite beating earnings estimates and raising his annual revenue outlook. We get more from Bloomberg's Tom McKenzie in London. This is a company that has not missed estimates for twenty one consictive coolses. In fact, it is beaten estimates for twenty one consictive coolses. So that comes down to evaluations story. This is a stock that's been one of the darlings of AI. The stock is up around one hundred and sixteen hundred and sent percent year to date, and the valuation for many is just too is just too rich. The valuation concerns this price to sales ratio, for example, one metric of looking at valuations at eighty five that is the highest in the SMP five hundred. And Bloomberg's Tom mackenzie says profit excluding some items is twenty one cents a share, compared with analysts average estimates of seventeen cents. Karen, We're watching shares of iHeartMedia this morning. They are up thirteen percent in early trading. Bloomberg News has learned Netflix is in talks to licensed video podcasts distributed by iHeart. Sources say the streaming giant is seeking exclusivity for the video programs, meaning full episodes would no longer be uploaded to YouTube. iHeart distributes popular programs like The Breakfast Club, Las Colta Ristas, the Jay Shetty Podcast and Stuff You Should Know Well. In Europe, Nathan BP's profits topped estimates. The British Energy and also maintained its quarterly share buyback plan, and operational improvements in higher oil and gas production outweighed lower prices. Turning back to politics, Karen, it is now day thirty five of the government shut down, now tied for the longest in US history. Now after suspending federal food assistants at the start of this month. The Trump administration says it will comply with the judge's order to resume the benefits, but only at half the level that households normally receive. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer says that doesn't go far enough. Everyone can get full benefits. The only person standing in the way is Donald Trump. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer says the administration could draw from tariff proceeds to pay for snap. Agriculture Secretary Brook Rowland says that could lead to a shortfall in other programs, like school meals for low income students. Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world, and for that we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker. John Good h. Good morning Karen. As voters head to the polls across the nation, elections face a security test as the Department of Homeland Security cots its local cyber support. Let's get more from Washington and Bloomberg's Amy Morris. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, or CISA, has ended its regular election day situation room that shared intelligence with state and local authorities. This is after the dismantling of the agency's election security team earlier this year, and remaining election personnel are not allowed to work with nor contact state election officials. These cuts have sent state and local officials responsible for running elections searching for ways to shore up potential gaps in cybersecurity, threat monitoring and physical protection of polling places. In Washington, Amy Moore as Bloomberg Radio. A nail bider national election. In the Netherlands, it came down to postal votes from Dutch citizens living abroad. The Centre's D sixty six party has eked own a in over the anti Islam lawmaker Gerd Wilder's far right Party for Freedom. A word this morning that European leaders, including German's chance Germany's Chances of Friedrich Mertz and the European Commission President Ursula Vonderland, will skip the EU's summit with Latin American and Caribbean states, doing part to concerns over angering President Trump. The European Union Sealock Summit is coming under scrutiny as the US targets countries including Columbia, which is hosting the summit, and Venezuela over drug trafficking claims, and the Department of Homeland Security directing border patrol agents to screen all foreign travelers with facial recognition tools as they enter and leave the US. The Wall Street General reports the move, set to take effect in late December, would also create a massive biometric database. Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News. Now, I'm John Tucker, and this is Bloomberg Karen. Thanks Jean. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, and for that we bring in John stash Hour. Thanks Deren. Whether that I pootball was in Dallas. Arizona ended a five game losing string beat the Cowboys twenty seven to seventeen. The NFL trade deadline comes today. Washington quarterback Jane Daniels has another injury. He's already missed time with injuries to his knee and hamstring, and now he's got a dislocated left elbow. Waltwise named the new manager of the Atlanta Braize. He finished his playing career playing for the Brads. He's been the bench coach of J. Bryan Sticker. He formerly was the manager at Colorado. That's the Bloomberg Sports Update. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg day Break coming up after. This Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business opp This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. A New York City mayor's race that has caught the nation's attention is now in the final stretch and heading into this election day, former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Democratic nominee z Or and Mam Donnie have been sparring over the Trump factor. We need a mayor who can stand up to Donald Trump. We know and have known for months that Donald Trump would favor Andrew Cuomo as the mayor. That wors Andrew Cuomo and Zorn Mumdanni in their final campaign stops before this election day. This morning, we were joined by Bloomberg Daybreak editor Mark Perrier. Mark, good morning. At the final stretch, we do have a Trump factor, A final or last minute endorsement of former Governor Cuomo from the President. Does that affect the race at this final stretch? Good morning, Good morning, And just to add on to what you said, not only the nation is looking at this is you know, major international news as well. Will it impact on the electorate today, We shall see. It may impact on undecided voters, as the funding being cut may rattle the undecided. I suspect that people who are locked in for Coup or Mam Danny will remain locked in. But again, we shall see how this plays out today. How have the candidates moved to expand their coalitions since the primary. It's been rather afraid, I would say, especially with the shutdown looming in the background. I think today may set the tone, you know, the outcome of today's election may set the tone for the next year, leading into the midterms next year. And we're also looking obviously at other key elections today in California, in Virginia, in New Jersey. So I think, you know, I'm not sure if this will repair anything, but again, it's such an interesting story to follow. We had early voting record setting early voting in New York City. I think it blew past, maybe more than doubling the previous record from just four years ago. What does that tell us about how this could turn out after tonight? I think this tells us that people are really concerned about the issues that Mahamdani has hit on the cost of living crisis. But again I think you also have maybe an older electorate coming in as well to support Cuomo, So it could be from both sides. This election means so much for the city and again nationally, it will set the tone for the next year. So I think people felt very compelled to take part in this election. Yeah, I could say a lot as well about the direction of the Democratic Party if, as the opinion polls have it, Zorn Mumdani does win this race, in contrast to what we've been seeing in the races in New Jersey and Virginia, where you have somewhat more center left candidates running in those contests. Exactly, so the city might be looking at a left leaning government, you know, from tomorrow whenever this decision comes out. You know, it's going to be interesting to see how people actually react to this win and also how the Democrats react to it as well. Since Mom Donnie does not have the full support of all the major players in the Democratic Party, I think people are engaging with them, but again they're being very careful about what they say and what they write. I think people are waiting to see what the outcome will be. Before making any moves on this. In our last minute, Mark, let's talk about the ballot question in California as well. I mean, this could have some serious mid term implications if indeed the Democratic push to redraw the maps sort of offsets what we've been seeing from Republican led states. Absolutely, it's all eyes on New York, but also all eyes as well on Gavin Usom and this Proposition fifty, which is looking to redraw the congressional map in order to win more seats for the Democrats in the midterms. Again, the risk is other states might jump in as well and want to do the same. It's also a moment for Gavin Newsom to exercise his power and to potentially gain of leading into the year, perhaps as a potential lead for the Democratic Party. We shall see, but it's definitely all very interesting. Today we're all watching. This is Bloomberg day Break, your morning podcast on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed by six am Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street time. On Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, Bloomberg in ninety nine one in Washington, Bloomberg ninety two nine in Boston, and nationwide on serious XM Channel one twenty one plus. Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business App now with Apple CarPlay and Android Atto interfaces. And don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the latest news whenever you want it in five minutes or less. Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast platform to stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow. And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Day Ray