506: Post-Draft Rookie Rankings

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacheritha J J Zachertha.

00:00:11
Speaker 2: What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharesen, the editor in chief at Fandle and at Number five dot com. This episode five hundred and six of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. We've got draft capital. We know which teams these prospects are on. Now it's time to rank them. Today is post Draft Rookie Rankings Day. Just like my pre draft show, I'll be splitting this one up into tears, and just like the pre draft show, I have to add the caveat that these rankings don't totally align with my model. My model is there to guide me through this, like I explained on last week's Mailbag episode, but it's not everything. Just because Terras Marshall is close to tow at Well objectively in my model doesn't mean that's how things will be ranked. There's a little subjectivity to this, and I think that's fine when we consider how much variance there is in prospecting to begin with. I actually publish these rankings on Number fire dot com last week, but my plan is to give a different perspective on today's show, and I'm just going to talk through my top twenty. But in my rankings, you can look at the top thirty six. Just go to number fire dot com, click my author profile on the homepage and you can find that article before get into the rankings. Though, basketball fans, I'm talking to you here. Fandal has partner with the NBA to provide fans with an exclusive opportunity to win a trip to this year's NBA Playoffs. All you have to do is enter the free qualifying contest on fandle from May third to May sixteenth for a chance to win. Fandel will add together your three highest scoring lineups to get your combined score. The top fifty players at the end of the contest will win bonus prizes on top of qualifying contest payouts. Those prizes include a trip for two to the NBA Playoffs, autograph gear from fanatics, and NBA dot com gift cards. So head over to Fandel dot com slash NBA A Hyphen road, Hyphen two hyphen Playoffs for more information. Eligibility restrictions apply. Let's dig into these rankings starting with Tier one. Not a lot changes in my pre and post draft rookie rankings because number one players who I think are good before the draft will generally get drafted high number two. Some players like Kadarius Tony, they were ranked higher in my pre draft rankings because of their projected draft slot and number three. Landing spot is not everything. It's something, and it matters to a certain extent, but it's not the end of the world if a player goes the wrong spot, especially a wide receiver. So my top tier is unchanged. I've got Naji Harris, Jamar Chase, and Travis Etn. I won't bore you guys with similar analysis from that pre draft rookie ranking show. Instead, I want to focus on what my model says about these players, how strong their landing spots are, and if we should care, and I'll add some nuggets here and there about their prospect profiles. Nause Hair is my one oh one, but I think there's a case for Jamar Chase, and I guess since Traves Etn is also in this tier, you can make the case for him at one oh one as well. I just have more question marks about his landing spot. The Steelers are going to use Naji Harris. He'll see the majority of early down work, but he's a great pass catcher too. He should have double digit percentage target share upside in year one. My projections have him around RB eighteen, but I'll likely rank him a little bit higher than that, more in the RB fifteen range for his rookie season. There's some concern about the Steelers offense after Ben Roethlisberger, but Roethlisberger's more replacement level right now anyway. The bigger concern is Pittsburg getting a cohesive offensive line. It's still not looking very good, but it's hard to be worse than it was last year. Harris Ranks is a ninety six percentile prospect in my model, and for context, that's better than any running backs in Saquon Barkley and Barkley, by the way, is the absolute best prospect in my model that dates back to two thousand and six. Jamar Chase, meanwhile, at wide receiver, is a ninety ninth percentile prospect. He joins Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, and Damarius Thomas as the only ninety ninth percentile wide receivers my model has ever seen, and again that dates back to two thousand and six. Chase walks into a pass heavy offense with his college quarterback as his quarterback now, and it's an offense where he can be in alpha while not being the only good target. T Higgins is a really really good boundary receiver and Tyler Boyd can play the slot. Chase is a very good prospect, and I can't fault anyone for taking him first overall in single quarterback rookie drafts this year. And then there's Travis Etn. What worries me about Etn is not the player. He's the second best prospect in this class behind Najie Harris, and my model has the two very very close. They've been close all offseason. I think if you want to use a tiebreaker between Etn and Harris, just look at what urban Meyer said after draft where he called James Robinson and Carlos Side his one two punch with Etn being a third down back.

00:05:07
Speaker 2: Now.

00:05:07
Speaker 1: As I said last week, that was coach speak. It's highly unlikely the Jags just drafted a first round running back to be used as a pass catching back. But the fact that he made that comment and the fact that a team in rebuild mode took a running back in round one. That tells me that this coaching staff may not be that sharp. That latter point is probably a bigger one to make. We can't assume rational coaching and team management when these people were making irrational moves. Etn still belongs in this tier, but I'll be drafting him. Third Tier two starts with Kyle Pitts. I had Pits at five in my pre draft rankings, where he was behind Javonte Williams, but Pitts scooted up a spot because of his draft capital combined with the landing spot. We know he's an elite athlete in prospect, we know he had good college production, but now he's got fourth overall draft capital on a team where he can contribute right away.

00:06:02
Speaker 2: He's likely the third.

00:06:03
Speaker 1: Option immediately in that Falcons offense, and that Falcons offense should be pretty pass heavy. My projections right now, even though he's a rookie, has Kyle Pitts as the tight end six. The tight end position is not as meaningful in fantasy football as running back or wide receiver.

00:06:20
Speaker 2: I get it, but you're.

00:06:21
Speaker 1: Also buying longevity and safety with Pits in your rookie drafts. Even though I really like Javonte Williams, I have way more faith that Pits is in the league and dominates for a long period of time or a longer period of time than Javonte Williams does. But speaking of Williams, he ended up going to Denver. At first, it seems like a bad landing spot, but it's really not that bad year. One may see a split backfield between Williams and Melvin Gordon if Melvin Gordon sticks around. But like I said in last week's mailbag, show Gordon's a free agent after this year. I would be shocked if Melvin Gordon is a Denver Bronco.

00:06:53
Speaker 2: In twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: Williams, for what it's worth, is a ninety second to ninety third percentile running back in my model. That gives him a very good chance to hit. It's honestly in line with where Jonathan Taylor and DeAndre Swift were last season. Some stuff changed for me at wide receiver post draft. I don't let landing spot determine a whole lot at that position, but I do think there are some cases where we need to be cognizant of where a player landed, but landing spot isn't the only reason the wide receiver rankings changed a little bit. Draft capital is a reason too, It's a bigger reason, and Davante Smith got that capital while other wide receivers did not at least the same degree or close to the same degree. I think DeVante Smith is at the top of tier three as my wide receiver too. He was my wide receiver four pre draft, behind Chase Terris Marshall and Rashad Bateman. I think instead of diving into Smith as a prospect, which I've done many many times on this show in the past, I wanted to just explain this ranking and the thought process behind the ranking.

00:07:55
Speaker 2: Post draft.

00:07:56
Speaker 1: Davante Smith has a ninety eighth percentile rating in my model. He's the second best wide receiver in this class according to my model, And remember my model does look at wide receiver BMI. If you look at the fifteen wide receivers drafted in the top ten between twenty six and twenty twenty, so we're not talking about Chase Smith and Jalen Waddell because they haven't played yet. The ones with a best season yards per team pass attempt right a three point zero or above include Corey Davis, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Justin Blackman, Julio Jones, and Calvin Johnson. Davonte Smith is part of that group. The other top ten wide receivers that that filter removes includes John Ross, Mike Williams, Kevin White, Tavon Austin aj Green, Darius Hayward, Bay, Michael Crabtree, and Ted Ginn. It essentially removes all of the busts in the top ten. So it's pretty clear that hitting that threshold for Davante Smith is a very good thing, which makes sense because it's a predictive production metric. When Smith was taken in round one, he also became just the third first round wide receiver with a best season yards per team pass attempt to rate above four. The other two since two thousand and six Des Bryant, Demarius Thomas. Devonte Smith is really good and I don't think having him at wide receiver two post draft is controversial at all.

00:09:16
Speaker 2: The question really is why did.

00:09:18
Speaker 1: He jump or shot Bateman and Terres Marshall, And it's pretty simple in my eyes. I always viewed them fairly similarly in terms of hit rate potential in the NFL.

00:09:28
Speaker 2: That's why they were in the same tier pre draft.

00:09:30
Speaker 1: Marshall didn't have the draft capital to back him up, and Rashat Bateman landed in Baltimore with a worst draft capital selection. I'll get to that in a second, but that allowed Davonte Smith to rise, and then after Smith, I have Jalen Wattle. Wattle is a risky prospect who doesn't look very strong analytically. He has a ninety fourth percentile ranking in my model, which really isn't that great considering he went sixth overall.

00:09:57
Speaker 2: With that being said, as.

00:09:58
Speaker 1: I've noted on this show over the last couple of time, we can at least find very obvious reasons as to why Wattle's profile isn't as strong as it could be. He had a really good freshman season against players who had more experience on his team that are now NFL players, and he outperformed them. He then dropped a bit during his sophomore year while not playing as many snaps, and then he got hurt his junior season. But last year he was pacing to have an incredible season. He had more receiving yards through four games than Heisman winning Devonte Smith. I placed Wattle in this tier because I don't think analytics capture everything with Jalen Wattle. This is why draft capital is part of my process. It inherently involves a film grade because a team drafted that player at that spot. I do think Smith is the better prospect versus Wattle, but both look pretty good in my model.

00:10:47
Speaker 2: Post draft.

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Speaker 1: Tier four is where things get really interesting. I kept the Alabama wide receivers in their own Tier three, but you could argue that this tier could be combined with that one because there are a lot of good wide receivers in this tier. But let's talk about my wide receiver for post draft, and it's my guy, Terras Marshall. This is probably gonna be one of the more controversial takes on this show. And like I noted in my post draft rankings article, it's fine if you'd rather take one of the other wide receivers in this tier over Terris Marshall. That's why we have tiers. But to me, Marshall has just as high of a ceiling as anyone in this class, maybe aside from Jamar Chase, and I'm gonna often shoot for that ceiling in rookie drafts. He's got the right size at six foot three, two hundred and five pounds. He competed well with two wide receiver stud teammates at LSU before getting injured his sophomore year, and in his seven games played before opting out this past year, Marshall accounted for twenty eight percent of LSU's receptions, thirty three percent of the team's receiving yards, and fifty nine percent of the team's touchdowns, all the while, according to Pro Football Focus, over the last two years, Marshall's had a perfect passer rating when lined up on the outside, and he got a lot of slot experience this past year, taking over that slot role that Justin Jefferson freed up when he went to the NFL. Marshall went from being mostly a perimeter wide receiver to a slot guy in twenty twenty, where he played seventy three percent of his snaps from the slot. I've seen the take that Marshall's landing spot isn't very good, but I would disagree with that. Yeah, there are question marks at quarterback, but you have similar question marks for other wide receivers we like in this tier. Not only that, but the Panthers don't have any depth at pass catcher. They've got DJ Moore and Robby Anderson and Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield. They don't utilize their tight ends. They don't have a tight end that they can reliably throw to, so immediately, Terris Marshall can play the slot for the Carolina Panthers, and Robby Anderson is a free agent next year. I love the fact that Marshall's reunited with Joe Brady too, who is LSU's passing game coordinator the year that team blew up.

00:12:50
Speaker 2: It just all comes together.

00:12:52
Speaker 1: Marshall's got a high ceiling, which is why I have him ranked where I have him ranked. My post draft wide receiver five is a lie and my wide receiver six is Rashod Bateman. I want to quickly just move to Bateman because I've gotten a lot of feedback about him since I published my post draft rankings over on Number Fire. A couple of mailbag episodes ago, I went on a giant rant about landing spot. I don't want to rehash everything that I said on there right now, because I think that episode really explains my thoughts about a wide receiver going to Baltimore and that was recorded before the draft. So now we know that the wide receiver in Baltimore is Rashod Bateman, and Bateman was my wide receiver two pre draft. So when people saw that he was my wide receiver six post draft, there were some flames in my Twitter mensions. How could you move Bateman down four spots due to landing spot? How could Bateman, who's a ninety six percentile prospect in your model be the wide receiver six in this class? Honestly, guys, there are really really easy explanations for this. Let's start with Bateman as a prospect. Yes, he's a ninety six percentile wide receiver in my model, and that's very good, but so is Elijah Moore. DeVante Smith ranks as a better prospect than Rashad Bateman does, so right away it's easy to see why DeVante Smith and Elijah Moore would be ranked ahead of Rashad Bateman in post draft rankings. So let's focus on the other two wide receivers ranked ahead of Bateman who weren't ranked ahead of him pre draft, Jalen Wattle and Tarris Marshall. Wattle is a ninety fourth percentile guy who, as I just noted, has an easy story to tell as to why he doesn't look better, and two percentage points really isn't that significant. I also think straight up draft capital, a top six pick versus a late first rounder makes it easy to see why someone would prefer Wattle over Rashad Bateman. But regardless, even in my model, the difference isn't all that big. So this really comes down to Terris Marshall. If you're arguing my Rashad Bateman post draft rookie ranking, it has strictly to do with Terris Marshall, and like I've been saying, Marshall is a ceiling pick. There is a bigger gap between Marshall and Bateman in my model than Bateman and Waddle. But I have absolutely zero problem with someone preferring a safer, higher floor option in Bateman than going with Terris Marshall. It's a personal preference thing, and that's the thing with Bateman. I've seen so many articles and so many videos of analysts saying that Bateman's landing spot isn't that big of a deal, and then all the evidence that's shown to support it have far more to do with Bateman's floor than his ceiling. Let this be known so that this take cannot be skewed after the fact, Rashad Bateman is a safe option. He can give you wide receiver two seasons throughout his career. My beef is where the ceiling is going to come from and what should continue to be a very run heavy offense as long as Lamar Jackson is under center. And again, you can listen to that mailbag episode from a couple of weeks ago to get all the data on this. And we can sit here and say, but AJ Brown all day long, and how AJ Brown has thrived in a run heavy environment and how people push Brown down theirs post draft like they're doing with Rashad Bateman.

00:16:03
Speaker 2: But guys, we.

00:16:04
Speaker 1: Don't know if Rashad Bateman is going to be as good as AJ Brown is.

00:16:08
Speaker 2: In fact, we.

00:16:09
Speaker 1: Should expect him to not be because Brown is a proven stud wide receiver in the NFL. You can't just compare Bateman to the best possible outcome. You have to compare him to all outcomes. Because if we're gonna do that, does that mean I get to compare Terris Marshall to DK metcalf a player whose production was hindered partially by teammate competition who had some medical concerns and fell to the later parts of the second round.

00:16:32
Speaker 2: Can I do that?

00:16:34
Speaker 1: It's just a really silly way to approach this and staid. I'm just saying Rashad Bateman is good and he has a high chance to hit. I'm also recognizing, though, that in the Ravens environment and probable environment, he has to hit to a more significant degree than other wide receivers do in order to have a true ceiling in Fantasy football, because his environment is not like other environments objectively, That's why he's still in this tier though that that's why the players being ranked ahead of him, Terris Marshall aside essentially have the same prospect scores or better prospect scores in my model, because I do think that Rashad Bateman is really good, and I'm not letting the landing spot completely dictate how I feel about Bateman post draft. If I did, he would not be in this tier. This is why tears exist. If you like Bateman more than Marshall or Elijah Moore or even Jalen Waddle, I'd have no problem at all if you took Bateman ahead of those guys. I think the only wide receivers who he absolutely should not be drafted ahead are Jamar Chase and DeVante Smith. This is why tiers exist. But I make my rankings based off of the information that I've analyzed and based off of how I would draft, and to me, Bateman has a cap ceiling in Baltimore. He's a safe option, but I worry about him being a full blown fantasy football stud. And then the last player in this tier who I haven't mentioned is Rondell Moore. Again, he's still in this tier. If you like Rondell Moore or in his landing spot in Arizona, which was a good landing spot, be my guest, go ahead, reach for Rondel Moore ahead of some of these wide receivers. It may seem like I'm not taking a stand with these players, but it's really not that at all. I'm trying to help you guys win. Me taking a stand is me ranking these guys. But these players are prospects who haven't played it down a professional football in their life. There's so much variance with prospecting. That's why I like grouping players in tiers. Providing information for you guys and allowing you to make your fantasy football decisions. I still have my takes, but I recognize how much variance is involved here. Rondel Moore is a similar prospect as Jalen Waddle in my model, rating wise, at least not play style, but my hesitation with Morris size.

00:18:48
Speaker 2: We haven't really seen someone with.

00:18:49
Speaker 1: His profile before where he did so much as a freshman, but he's only five foot seven. If it comes together, I could see him being a top wide receiver from this class, but there are question marks, and that's why I have him ranked where I have him ranked. And by the way, as I've been talking about this, I've realized that Jalen Waddell probably belongs in this tier and not in the DeVante Smith tier. So DeVante Smith now has his own tier after Rondel Moore comes a tier with just one player. Trey Sermon pre draft, Sermon was my RB four. That was partially because I figured that he'd be the fourth running back selected in the NFL draft, and he was. He was one of the two Day two running backs selected, and he found a spot in Kyle Shanahan's system. The forty nine Ers have ranked first and third and running back fantasy points scored over the last two seasons. They just haven't had a consistent piece in that backfield to be a full blown RB one And while I'm not totally sold Sermon is gonna be that guy, we do have to feel at least somewhat bolish. The Niners traded up to get him, which, as I talked about last week, that's a good sign for immediate fantasy success. And Sermon has the right size to handle a big workload. So even though he comes in with a risky score in my prospect model, given where we're at in this rookie draft, I think he makes sense as an upside pick because if he hits, he could have RB one upside in that system. This is the spot where I think that you can go with Trevor Lawrence or Trey Lance. I won't speak a lot on them today because I've said my piece on previous shows.

00:20:18
Speaker 2: I will say though, that.

00:20:19
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised at all if Trey Lance is the QB one in fantasy football in this class. When we look back in five years, the rushing component is absolutely there for Lance, and he fell to a coaching staff where we can feel confident in his development. I still have Lawrence ahead of him for stability and safety purposes, but I have them back to back. The only other player in this tier, though, is Michael Carter. As I said on last week's Mailbag episode, I couldn't have pictured a better spot within reason, at least for Carter to land. The big question mark for Carter is size and maybe his athleticism, even though that doesn't seem apparent on tape. But size is definitely an issue because he's only about two hundred pounds. I figured that he'd be a satellite back at the next level, but he landed on the Jets, where whole have a chance to see immediate ground game production. The competition there is really lacking. So if he has one hundred and fifty plus carry upside right away to go along with being a good pass catcher, then it's easy to see him play a role like we might see from someone like Chase Edmonds this year, and if Zach Wilson hits and if the Jets turn things around, Carter could be pretty usable. It's also a dead point in the draft, so it's a perfect time to snag a player like Michael Carter, who still doesn't have a high hit rate. Despite this landing spot, we had to still be cognizant of the fact that he's a Day three pick and he's undersized. It's just that the opportunity cost at this point in the draft isn't very high because you're not taking Carter over some of those aforementioned stud wide receivers. This next year is where I would be okay with going with Kadarius Tony. As I mentioned before, if there's one first round wide receiver who looks like a fantasy football bust, it's Tony. The nine players with first round draft capital and a negative STATU score in my model since two thousand and six, all of them are bus and Tony also doesn't have early declared status. With that being said, I don't think it's all bad for Tony. He actually has a better prospect scorer in my model than Henry Ruggs had coming out last year. And we know that Tony has a whole lot of athleticism. Sometimes that translates despite a poor production profile. And not only that, but you can at least tell a story with Tony he wasn't really a full time wide receiver until this past year. The dude played quarterback in high school. I don't weigh this kind of thing much subjectively because I think good players are good for a reason and they play the position they're supposed to play.

00:22:37
Speaker 2: For a reason.

00:22:38
Speaker 1: But you can at least find excuses for Kadarius Tony. I don't love the landing spot though, because I can see a scenario where Tony is more of a gadget player in year one as he continues to learn the position. He may be someone who's more of a by candidate after this season as opposed to buying him right now.

00:22:55
Speaker 2: But he's still.

00:22:56
Speaker 1: Affordable in rookie drafts because everyone is off Cadarius Tony. Like I got Kadarius Tony in a rookie draft last week, and I don't like Kadarius Tony as a prospect.

00:23:05
Speaker 2: You have to play the market as well.

00:23:07
Speaker 1: Now in this same tiers where I have Justin Fields, I do think it makes sense to have Fields in a tier below Lance and Lawrence because of his draft capital and how he fell a little bit in the draft, and he didn't just fall quarterback needy teams passed on Justin Fields. I still like Fields a lot. Don't get me wrong. I've already drafted him in a couple of super flex leagues. He had impressive numbers last year against a tough schedule, and he's gonna bring that rushing element to fantasy football just as well as anyone in this class. I mean, he ran a four four four forty at his pro day. I just amusing the fact that Detroit, Carolina, and Denver all quarterback needy teams. They all pass on him, and I'm using that as a differentiator. But he's my QB three and I would take him at the one ZH three spot in super flex rookie drafts. The last year I'm gonna get too. On today's show starts with Diami Brown. I was actually a little bit confused with this pick from a real football perspective. Not that Washington can't work for Brown, but I figured the football team was going to use Curtis Samuel as more that deep threat, similar to how he was utilized with his same coaching staff during his last year in Carolina. But that's Diami Brown's game. He averaged over twenty yards per reception over his final two seasons at North Carolina. I do think he can develop into something more though. He ranks in the eighty first percentile on my model post draft, and that's a good sign. Anything above eighty makes me feel good about a prospect, and he should be able to find the field right away for Washington, So I think you could argue that he belongs in the same tier as Kadarius Tony to be honest, after Brown at nineteenth overall, I have Aman Ross Saint Brown. I think there's a lot of overemphasizing landing spot in first year production happening with Saint Brown right now. Yes, the Detroit Lions wide receiver depth chart absolute trash. Yes, Saint Brown should immediately be able to play the slot for them, But I've seen him get selected in that higher end wide receiver tier ahead of guys like Elijah Warren Rashad Bateman. I don't agree with that at all. Saint Brown was never in alpha in college, and he was a Day three pick. I think he's a high floor slot option for fantasy purposes, but I do worry about his ceiling, especially since he didn't really show much of that ceiling in college. And then I finished my Top twenty with Dwayne Eskridge, who's ranked right ahead of Amari Rodgers, Zach Wilson, and Nico Collins in this tier. I mentioned this on last week's Mailbag show, but despite his age and sort of a strange production profile, Eskridge looks pretty good in my model. He's an eighty six percentile guy in that model thanks to a best season yards per team pass attempt rate of four point nine to two. That's absolutely absurd. He's got great speed, and he'll compliment what they have in Seattle nicely by being more of an underneath guy while Metcalf and Lockett stretched the field. I don't think he's close to a slam dunk though. He's a twenty four year old prospect who played five years in college, and he's not in early declare, and he'll be at best the third option in that Seattle offense for the foreseeable future. So I don't mind him as much as some who think more analytically about this stuff.

00:26:09
Speaker 2: But there are.

00:26:09
Speaker 1: Definitely some red flags. That's why he's not ranked higher despite where he sits in my model. Again, that's just the top twenty. You can see the top thirty six by heading over to number fire dot com, or you can just hit me up on Twitter and I'll send that article your way. But that's going to do it for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got to subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you later in the week.