1100: Mailbag - Kaelon Black, Model Discrepancies, and More

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Speaker 1: This is the Late with your host JJ zachera JJ zacher reson what's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode eleven hundred of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. You guys know it by now, but the Late Round Prospect Guide is still available to purchase on Lateround dot com. It's got everything you need to crush your rookie drafts and it's very much analytically driven. In the guide, you can learn about what goes into the zapp models. You get ZAP scores for these prospects, you get my rankings. There's year two profiles, let's not forget about those, and so much more. Check it all out over on lateround dot com. Now let's get to these mailbag questions. The first question this week is from my friend Joey Wright at the Joey Wright on Twitter. He says, what is your process on Klon Black? Now, without a doubt, Joey's asking this question because there's a really strange interaction this week on Twitter between myself and someone else, and that interaction had to do with Klon Black and on this show, in this podcast feed, since the draft, I don't think I've really broken down Klon Black the prospect. I've mostly talked about San Francisco reaching for him based on mock draft data, so objectively from an analytical perspective, with the things that I look at, what do we have with Klon Black? Well, first off, I think overall there's a lot of red flags to his profile. Not being an NFL combine invite was a little bit weird, but I won't even hold that against him. What I will hold against him is the fact that he's already twenty four and a half years old. Now, this isn't the same that I care about his age from the perspective of having him through a second contract, or that I'm worried about him breaking down quickly in the NFL. It's that generally younger running back prospects are better than older ones. There's more room for growth than if they enter the league at a younger age. That signals to us that they're talented. They were able to do that at a younger age, oftentimes leaving college early. Now I'm coming off of an episode where I talked about the impact of this current college landscape with nil and transfer rules all that stuff, and how that's driving prospect age up, but it's generally driving the age up for undrafted players in later round picks, not Day two once, so we're bound to see some of this happening a little bit more, where we get a twenty four year old player getting drafted on Day two just because there's more of them entering the NFL right now, that doesn't mean that we ignore the age signal, though we admittedly don't have a lot of data of top one hundred running backs, we're past their twenty fourth birthday when they were drafted. In fact, the only other top one hundred pick at this age since twenty eleven in the zapmodel database is RJ. Harvey, and I think we'd all agree that right now today Harvey was overvalued as a dynasty asset, largely due to landing spot. And it's not to say that things can't turn around. I'm just saying, right now, versus where we were a year ago, RJ. Harvey's value isn't looking amazing. We know that age matters even in this nil era, and honestly, we can even ignore that raw age if you want to and just look at age adjusted production, like if Kaylon Black is twenty four and a half years old, but he produced right away. He had a sweet production profile. When you adjust for when that production happened, then we might be more forgiving about his overall age. But according to my numbers, that's not really the case. I will say this Black didn't even get a high risk Draft Capital delta tag within the ZAP Model, which means the model has seen plenty of worst picks, which is kind of surprising. He's got pretty good size, and even his pro day adjusted speed score it's solid enough. Meanwhile, he had a best season reception share around ten percent. That's a forty seven percentile number. He had an adjusted yards per team pass attempt, adjusted for age, and strength of schedule of point six that's in his best season. That's also a forty seven percentile number. But that's percent tile among all prospects in the ZAP Model database. All prospects meaning the guys who were drafted are the guys who went to the combine since twenty eleven. When we look solely at picks thirty three through one hundred, so day two picks, we're removing the round one guys here, it's closer to a thirty first percentile number. And that's for adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt. Now, look, one number doesn't make or break a prospect. We've seen hits from players with an adjusted yards per team pass attempt this low. When we look at players in the ZAP model database who were below the point seven mark, remember Kaylon Black was point six, we find thirty seven running backs who were drafted between pick thirty three and pick one hundred since twenty eleven. Of those thirty seven, Eddie Lacy, Le'Veon Bell, Carlos Hide, Tevin Coleman, David Montgomery, and Miles Sanders each produced an RB two type season, and Quinn Shawn Judkins is on that list too. He'll probably get there. Here's the issue, though, many of those players were really good on the ground in college. I have a just did total yards per team play in the model too, and each one of those players cleared one point seventy four, which means nothing to many of you. I get that, But Kaylon Black is at one point one to two in his best season, and that's an adjusted total yards per team play. That's where I start to get concerned about his outlook. I certainly don't think that he's an elite receiver. But I think at one point I mentioned that his receiving numbers were kind of awful, but they're not awful. I'd say they're below average for sure, but it's not to the point where I think he's like incapable of playing some role as a pass catcher. But we have to remember why we're looking at receiving metrics for running backs when we're prospecting. It's because it shows how well rounded they are. It shows how frequently their teams were trying to get them the ball. It shows intent. It's not just about capability of being able to handle a ten percent target share in the NFL. It's talent evaluation. And with Black, he's at least below average there. I don't know how you could point to any metric for him and say that he's got a good or great receiving profile. But yeah, I've seen worse. Where I haven't really seen worse is in total yards per team play, at least for this kind of draft capital. Among that same subset of backs who've been drafted between thirty three and one hundred over the last fifteen years, blacks adjusted total yards per team play rate is the absolute worst, and again, we've seen some hits from running backs with low total yards per team play rates. James Cook is one of them. He was at one point one point nine and adjusted total yards per team play in his best season. Antonio Gibson's was one point one seven. He's had his moments. The difference is that those two players, they were excellent and adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt If we lose some parameters here a little bit, and we look at players with adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt rates below point eight and then adjusted total yards per team play rates below one point five. Remember, Kaylon Black is at point six and one point one two, significantly below those thresholds. We get the following day two running backs Jeric McKinnon, who wasn't a traditional running back prospect, Terrence West, Matt Jones, Damian Harris, Funny Enough, ty Davis Price, and then Trey Benson. Let's move that even further north. Let's go one point seven in yards per team play and point nine in yards per team pass attempt. That added Alex Green, Stephen Ridley, Kristin, Michael Kenyan, Drake, Darrenton Evans, Tank Bigsby, and Marshawn Lloyd in addition to the other backs that I already mentioned. I mean, flat out, plain and simple, this is not a good profile. I genuinely don't know how you would spin this profile to look above average. At the very least. The problem is that the prospect himself isn't the only thing that matters, especially for running backs. There's no doubt that the system that he's in right now with Kyle Shanahan can give him a boost. There's no doubt that running back production in fantasy football is tied more closely to simple coaching decisions than wide receiver production is. This is why the model is still weighing draft capital and still isn't saying fade at all costs. And that's the key. I mentioned this in the Late Round show a couple of weeks ago, But my rankings they've had Black ahead of ADP. Not dramatically because I don't think he's a great prospect, but it was ahead because I'm trying to recognize range of outcomes here, and I also know that weird things can happen in prospect evaluation. If he were a second round rookie pick, he'd be an easy fade but he's not at all, which is why within this bad rookie class, I don't think he's a fade. I don't think he's a good prospect, but I don't think there's a lot of good prospects in this class. Am I excited about his potential? Not really. I thought there were more talented running backs to choose from when San Francisco made that pick. And historically, players with these types of numbers they don't pan out at a very high rate at all. In fact, they just don't pan out. But again, it's a really weak class, and crazy things happen in prospecting all the time. You have to weigh the pros and cons. You have to weigh the range of outcomes. And with Kaylon Black, it's fine if you want to throw a third round rookie pick at him. That's really not costly at all. You can just say I'll plug my nose and just look at situation. But overall, do I think Kaylon Black's a good prospect? No, I don't. This best question from at sideshow Tim too it says at some point Jonathan Brooks has to be healthy again. The Panthers backfield seems wide open. Canal has loved him coming out of Texas. He seems to have a reasonable path to shooting up in average draft position. Or am I missing something? You're not missing anything. I think Brooks is a very, very intriguing player who I'll probably be in on this year when season long drafts start. I've already taken him in Best Ball drafts. I think some people with pain me as a Chuba Hubbard hater because last year I faded him a cost. But I think Hubbard is a fine running back. My issue is I don't think he's an excellent pass catcher, and so he doesn't bring enough upside for me to want to be aggressive with him. As of today, He's not a fade for me in twenty twenty six, but I do have my concerns. For one, we learned last year through a study that I did, that middle round running backs their yards per route run in the previous season can be pretty predictive at the extremes. And look, Hubbard was a little bit better last year in that department at a one point zero one rate according to PFF, but he's been below that one mark in two of his last three seasons and three of his five seasons in the league. He has not been an a fishing pass catcher, and I saw them bringing Rico Dowdell and drafting Trevor Etn last year a pass catching specialist because they need a little bit more help there. But Brooks can bring that pass catching element to this Panthers offense. He's got that well rounded profile. He also looked pretty good in the Zapp model. We just haven't been able to see him on the NFL field for obvious reasons. Now, look, Brooks has not been able to stay healthy, and a big reason I don't have Chewpa Hubbard as a clear fade right now is because of that. If things do go south, Cheopa Hubbard just on volume alone, can be fine in fantasy football. He's not the player that I'm gonna aggressively target, like I said, but I do think he's gonna have a very good floor because unlike last year, where we had some data on Rico Dowdell being a decent NFL back, we have no data on Jonathan Brooks and we have no idea if he's gonna look the same after these injuries. But as a standalone late round target, yes, this is the kind of player Jonathan Brooks that I love throwing darts. At this last question from Blue Skies from at Leif Peterson, it says any udfas that you're keeping an eye on this summer. Yeah, there's plenty of udfas, but there's one in particular who I'm interested in, and that's John Michael Gillenborg. I'd mentioned Gillenborg is a deep sleeper pre draft, and then he didn't get drafted, which is sad because he had a ninety first percentile heighth adjusted speed score in the ZAP model and his breakout score wasn't amazing due to program adjustments. It was fifty third percentile, but that's still not bad given the program adjustments. And I say program adjustments because he went to Wyoming. At Wyoming, though he had a best season yards parole run rate in the eighty eight percentile, in a career yards parole run rate in the eighty six percentile. And in Kansas City you obviously get Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, but Travis Kelcey's on the verge of retirement. Noah Gray would probably be the next man up if Travis kelce retires, But it's not like He's just undeniably good and there are mostly projects behind him, so why not interesting profile, pretty good situation. Let's see what happens there. And I also think that Jeff Caldwell on that same team, he's also an interesting UDFA. He's an absolute size speed freak, and Kansas City needs some help at wide receiver. Now, look, I highly doubt either of these players are going to become something because it's very very rare to see udfas really work out. I think I've only correctly called two of them over the last like six or seven years. James Robinson was one, Jalen Coker was another. At least that's who I remember most, But those are two names to watch out for. The nice question from raw Luga on Patreon. It says most everyone has Cede Lamb and George Pickens and their top ten wide receivers, but Dak Prescott barely cracks the top twelve quarterbacks. Do you think Dak will hold back both wide receivers from actually finishing as wide receiver ones. No, because that offense and Dak himself it's very fantasy friendly. Something I do want to call out, though, is the way that we're thinking about this. I've done some research over the last couple of years, and while it's not bad to have a quarterback who has high end wide receivers, we should actually care more if the quarterback has no high end talent. There's a little bit more signal from what I've found. Typically, not always, but so typically those are the quarterbacks who tend to underperform versus expectation when they don't have high end wide receivers or pass catchers according to ADP, but Dak not ranking in the top twelve fantasy quarterbacks has just as much to do about rushing as it does anything else. He's not super mobile, and the market is adjusted to quarterback rushing over the last three to five years. So at the top of quarterback ADPs we're getting like josh Allen, Lamar Jackson. But then there's Jayden Daniels who's still getting drafted high, Drake May and so on, and they should I'm not saying that's wrong, that's actually right in my opinion. I'm saying looking at the ranking of Dak Prescott and saying that he can't support two wide receivers because of that ranking isn't super relevant these days because quarterback ADP is going to skew towards those mobile players. It's a pass friendly offense, and those targets are going to be funneled to those wide receivers. As long as Pickens is there in playing, I wouldn't worry about Dak, who's been one of the better quarterbacks in the league since he's entered the NFL. There are far worse situations out there. The last question this week is from at sam heard Shipping. It says, as fantasy players who aren't statisticians or spend their time researching data, only use analytics and insights from the pros, what should I think of Jordan Tyson being so drastically different in so many models drafted him one oh two because of you, but so many others think that he won't hit. Now, Honestly, I haven't seen other models that are saying that Tyson won't hit. If I'm just being honest, like most models will have him wide receiver three at worst, wide receiver one at best, which I think is honestly pretty reasonable. I obviously like him as the wide receiver one, but I can see why a model might like Carnell Tate or Mackay Lemon more for Tate, he had better draft capital. You've got program adjustments or teammates score stuff that favors him. He's in early declare. McKay Lemon is two and he had a really strong production profile. Depending on some metrics, you could argue that Lemon had a better production profile than both, that he has the best production profile in this entire class. Breakout score, though, is really reliable for me. So I lean on that, and I lean on Tyson, But there are many many ways to analyze production. Now, if I were to assume that models really do disagree with Jordan Tyson, I'd say it's probably because he missed a lot of time in college. And people could look at that a lot differently, Like I use a pro rated number in the Zapp model, so as long as the player plays six games, his season's gonna count. Others may look at season long data that to me is a little bit unfair. But again, maybe they're finding signal through doing that. And I kind of already alluded to this, But Tyson's not an early declare receiver either. Some people really weigh that factor. I care more about age adjusted production, even though early declare status is an input in the ZAP model, but some might weigh that more heavily than I am, and they might not care about age as much as the college year year one as a freshman, year two as a sophomore, and so on. There are loads and loads of numbers that we can look at in so many ways to manipulate those numbers. College football data, unfortunately is not super robust, but we collectively as a fantasy community have come up with a lot of cool ways to measure things. And some of those things will be in one model but not another, and sometimes for some players that can make a difference. Though I stand by the fact that I haven't seen Tyson further down than wide receiver three in a model. But I'm not looking at every single model that's out there, obviously, But I think you asking this question raises a point that I think is very valid, and that's how do I know what models to follow and what to rely on? Now. I did talk about this more in depth a couple of mailbag episodes ago, but i'd make sure that you're listening to an analyst who's being open and transparent, talking honestly about the inputs and their process. If they're just throwing names into a list without explaining the why. That's a huge problem. But there could be differing results analytically because the way we calculate things can be slightly different. Even just purely what we're solving can be different. I'm looking at B two s or the best two seasons across the player's first three years of his career. Someone else might be looking at top twenty four performances or something across a player's rookie contract. Those small things can dictate what the inputs are gonna be in a certain model. I guess what I'm saying here is just because something is numbers driven and analytical doesn't mean it's objectively true. We're humans trying to predict human behavior. We're trying to forecast how well humans are gonna play a game. That means not only is the result pretty volatile, but the process in which we get to that result that's gonna be volatile too, no matter the method, whether it's purely film based or purely analytics based. But I see it no differently than how I see how. There are differing ideas for film based analysis. In fact, i'd strongly strongly argue that numbers based prospecting is gonna align more closely to other numbers based prospecting processes than film based ones will, just because there's more objective overlap, and because, in my opinion, when you prospect through numbers, it's a little bit easier to fix any issues that you might be having, and as you fix them and as you get better results, you're more likely gonna align with others who are doing the exact same thing. That just doesn't mean that there's gonna be one hundred percent overlap. I'm gonna have different results than Dwayne McFarlane and his Rookie Supermodel. And if you the consumer would rather lean in on the players where there's serious overlap between my analysis and Dwayne's, although I do think that Dwayne likes Tyson, But if you'd rather just draft the true overlap players, maybe there's some validity to that. Maybe that's a process that you can take on that has really good results. I don't have the answer to that, because I'm trying to give you, guys, what I think is the best analysis or the best analysis that I can give, and it's analysis that I know has been successful, not just through how I've used it in my leagues, but how others have used it. It won't be perfect. Jordan Tyson is not guaranteed to hit, but I'm confident that what I'm doing is gonna hel help you out in the long run because I've tested it and I've lived it, and there are others in the fantasy space who can claim the exact same thing. The guy I just mentioned, Dwayne, not only a friend, but he's a great analyst too. You just have to find the mix that works best for you, and you have to understand that we're not always going to see things the exact same way because we're projecting something that's inherently very volatile. That doesn't mean that we can't find a serious edge though. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening this week everyone, I greatly appreciate it. Enjoy your weekend and I'll catch you next week.