575: Mailbag 11/5/21

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Speaker 1: This is the Label Podcast with your host JJ zacher Resa Jay Jake Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyaeson, the editor in chief at fandled at Number fire dot com in this episode five hundred and seventy five of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. Don't forget about this week's Fandel Podcast Network Listener League. Check out fandle dot com Slash League slash Listener League to join. It's a rake free contest that costs five dollars to enter and has fifteen hundred dollars in prizes. You can enterrupt the three lineups of the contest. Again. That's fandel dot Com Slash League slash Listener League. To join, eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the Fandle app for more details. The first mailbag question this week is from at Texas Blue Moon. It says, hi, JJ would love to hear your main take away from the Odell Beckham Junior falling out with the Browns. Who would you say benefits the most from the perspective of fantasy football is Donovan Peoples Jones a viable wide receiver two slash three moving forward. Okay, so at the time of this recording, Odell Beckham basically just isn't involved with what the Browns are doing. He's still technically a Cleveland Brown, but he's been excused from practices. I think at this point we can expect that he's played his last down for the team. Maybe he plays this weekend. Maybe I'm wrong. I don't know, but things at least aren't good in terms of what happens from here. Let's start with two higher level things. First, the Browns don't have the best offense for wide receivers. We know this, but to give you some data, Cleveland is thirtieth in overall pass rate this year, and they're thirtieth in total wide receiver targets on the season. I don't expect that to get dramatically higher if obj is replaced. The second thing is that Beckham has seen a target share per game average since returning to the lineup this year of almost nineteen percent, and before last week against Pittsburgh that number was actually almost twenty two percent. That's not insignificant even in an offense is going to be run heavy. I think we shouldn't lose sight of what this could do for Jarvis Landry. This year sample sizes a little bit wonky, but don't forget that we have a sample of the Browns with and without OBJ. Last year. Beckham was hurt in Week seven. Last year, Through that point in time, Jarvis Landry had a target share per game under twenty percent. From the time that Obj got hurt through the end of the season, that target share per game jumped to over twenty eight percent. I already had Landry as a bye on the fifteen Transaction Show earlier this week, but I think this means that he at least has a chance. He has a chance to be a wide receiver two in PPR formats a lower end one. Now. Outside of Landry, I'm definitely most interested in Donovan People's Jones. Rashard Higgins has gotten more run the last couple of weeks because People's Jones. He's been sidelined, but People's Jones has played more snaps in every game played this year. He's the number two on that team, and he's a pretty good wide receiver. He's more than capable of playing on the perimeter for them. I think they'll mix all of their wide receivers in don't get me wrong, with Landry being my top priority and People's Jones being my number two. I don't think we'll see People's Jones as a wide receiver two in fantasy football, and probably not even a consistent enough wide receiver three. But he should be rostered in most formats because of the potential target shair and just the potential emergence. When you get a good player who's got a clear opportunity, you have to be open minded about the possibility of that player doing something big. So I'd add him if he's available. The next question is from at not Gump three. HEYJJ, can't thank you enough for all you do. Thanks. My question is what do you do when you have a positional advantage in one place but a positional deficiency in another and your league won't trade you. I'm stuck with great wide receivers but no reliable running backs because of injuries. Please help so you can do two things. First is that you need to just simply do a trade that you typically not be interested in doing. You have to take a chance if people aren't trading, if you give them a trade offer where their side is clearly winning, but you're getting a running back that you desperately need, then there's a higher chance of that trade getting accepted. Now, the other thing that you can do, and I don't know your exact situation, so I can't tell you exactly which course I would take here, But the other thing that you can do is maximize the use of your bench. Go harder with how you're managing your bench assets. Since you need running backs, flood your bench with backups and see if one of them ends up hitting because of an injury. There are going to be high end demand waiver wire running backs from now through the end of the year that's gonna happen. Your goal is to get them on your team before they become popular waiver ats. And the way you do that is to increase your probability of having that player by just having more of those players on your roster. That's really the only thing I can say. It's tough when you're put in that kind of position. This next question is from Adam Koffler says, what should we make of Alvin Kamara rest of season? With Taysom Hill as the starter in mark Ingramantown? Should we be selling him high? For a guy with a higher ceiling, perhaps Darryl Henderson. So I think this is a downgrade situation for Alvin Kamara if Taysom Hill is the starter, and it's not only because of the target share situation and how that could flip. Last year, in Taysom Hill's four starts at quarterback, Kamara ranked as the RB twenty five, the RB thirty six, the RB nine, and the RB nine in weekly scoring. During that stretch, he had just a thirteen percent target share per game, and he dip below a ten percent target share in two of his contests. Those are the only two games where that happened last year. Now, for context, he is a twenty one percent target share this season. Now, one of those games was that weird one against Denver where Kendall Hinton started a quarterback. But regardless, even if you want to remove that game, Kamara wasn't seeing as good of receiving work. Anytime we have data like this where we're looking at splits, we have to ask ourselves if there's a for the things that are happening. Because we're working within a small sample, within a small sample, And I think you can look at this logically and say yes, Taysom Hill is not a good thing for Alvin Kamara. He's certainly not someone who boosts Kamara's potential. And it goes back to the things that I talked about over the off season with mobile quarterbacks. Mobile quarterbacks aren't really good for running backs. That's what I talked about on episode five hundred and ten. It's a bigger deal for pass catchers, but it still matters for running backs. The backs may end up being more efficient, but you have to think even more simply than that. Mobile quarterbacks take up a larger portion of a team's offense. They're touching the ball more, and then they take away touchdowns on the ground from running backs on their team, unless, of course, it's just an offense it's really good, like Baltimore or something. I'm not banking on New Orleans being that great offensively. I don't think it would make sense to now. One thing I do want to say is that the Saints offense with Jamis Winston, they were already a really run heavy team through Week eight. Only Chicago has average fewer team targets per game. So the net result here may not be super super significant, but I'd still say Camara should get a slight bump downward. So what does that mean moving forward? That's a good question. If someone's still buying kamaras like a top two or three option, I think moving on is fine as long as you're getting something substantial in return. Now, you mentioned Darryl Henderson in this question, and for as high as I've been on Henderson since the season started, I think the market would still dictate and say that Kamara is a better piece from here on out, which means you could do a Henderson plus type trade if you're trying to get rid of Kamara, so you could potentially upgrade another lineup slot in the process. But yes, I would expec Kamara's numbers to dip a little bit. I still think he's an RB one, but there's a lot more volatility now and his touchdown equity probably won't look the same. This next question is from at Topping Shots twelve. Do you think there's a real chance for a Javonte breakout this season without a Melvin Gordon injury? It feels like his upside is capped at a dozen touches in a bad offense. Yeah, I mean, I think there's still a chance if Denver's not in the playoff picture. They may want to go with Javonte Williams and see what they've got, or at least give him more of that Gordon workload instead of this complete fifty to fifty split. I don't think a Melvin Gordon injury absolutely has to happen, but I wouldn't bank on it happening with certainty. Like I always say, you're playing probability, I'd say the most likely outcome is still a split backfield all season long. But with Williams, you're holding onto him because number one, he's a flex option. Number two he has crazy upside with a Melvin Gordon injury, and number three he could just naturally take that job. It doesn't mean all of those things will happen, It just means they could happen. And like I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show last week, his schedule down the stretch is really nice. This es question is from at Austin Underscore Underscore Owens, are you looking to sell high on Jamar Chase in his insane touchdown rate keep rolling with the elite talent in chemistry with Joey b Yeah, So look, Jamar Chase is not gonna keep this up. If you look at the league's top twenty four wide receivers in PPR formats this year, chases first in fantasy points per target, fourth and touchdowns per target, and first in yards per target. Now, some may hear that and say, but he's just really good, and you're not wrong. He is really good. But consider this. His yards per target rate right now is thirteen point one. We've only seen that number hit twice over the last ten years among fifty plus target wide receivers. Jordan Nelson did it in twenty eleven, Tyler Lockett in twenty eighteen. It's a number that generally regresses. The same goes for touchdowns per target. That's a number that generally regresses. Good players will have higher than average rates, but good players aren't just always top three or four on the list year over year over year. For example, over the last decade, forty wide receivers with fifty or more targets had a touchdown to target rate of ten percent or higher, meaning ten percent or more of their targets going for touchdowns. Among players on that list, there were only three duplicates, which tells you that it's a really freaking hard thing to do. Right now, Jamar Chase is at an eleven point seven percent rate. Eleven point seven percent of his targets have gone for touchdowns, so we can't just expect this to continue. That wouldn't be logical. But expecting regression doesn't mean we should sell the player. I'd still expect him to be a top five or so guy rest of season because he's incredibly talented, he sees good targets, and his target share is still strong at twenty five percent. I lucked out with Jamar Chase this year, not because I didn't like him as a player. I love him as a player. I talked all off season on this show how he was a ninety ninth percentile prospect in my model, but I didn't go all in on him and redraft because I didn't think it was necessary. Before all the drop issues in the preseason, I actually thought his ADP was a little bit too high. And then I actually ended up buying a lot of Jamar Chase because no one wanted him. They wanted nothing to do with him. I just reacted to the market because the market was reacting so strongly to those drop issues in the preseason. So now I've got him on a lot of redraft teams because of how the market reacted. This is why it can be tough to give general fantasy advice. It's just as much about the market as anything else. Now, I know you guys don't care about my fantasy teams, so let me get to the punchline. I'm not actively trading him where I have him. He's a very valuable piece in fantasy football, even with regression. This last question is from at Big Time Underscore tim. If Adrian Peterson gets eighty percent of Henry's rushing work, is he automatically an RB two or was Henry playing so far above points expected that it's not a sure thing. We can't make many assumptions about a player replacing a complete outlier like Derrick Henry. I also don't think we should make any assumptions about a player taking eighty percent of Derrick Henry's work. On the year, Henry was averaging a ninety five percent running back rush share per game. Percent of that would mean that Adrian Peterson would see about three quarters of the Titans running back rushes, when just eight running backs including Derrick Henry, have hit that per game this year. Now, I will say now that we've had the week and we saw the kind of fob that Peterson went for, at least in my leagues and what I saw online, I thought Peterson was a little bit undervalued this week. I almost wish I would have been higher on him earlier in the week during the fifteen transactions process, because I ended up seeing that people really like Jeremy McNichols more. I thought people would for sure like Peterson more. Now. I did like McNichols more in PPR formats specifically, but I didn't see it as some like ninety to ten type of thing where I was ninety percent sure McNichols was the better AD. I would put it more at like sixty forty. So I ended up getting Peterson in a lot more leagues than I expected. But again, no one cares about my fantasy teams. But I'm not expecting the world. I just think he's in a spot where he can see twelve to fifteen, maybe sixteen rush attempts per game while also being the goal lineback, and that can be good enough to be a fringe ARB too if it happens. I just wouldn't think in terms of eighty percent of Derrick Henry because this offense isn't going to operate the same way, even if they say that it will. At the very least, the backfield is going to look a lot different than it did with Derrick Henry because they're going to utilize their backs completely differently. This es qrist is from at Abo Govic. Hey, JJ, can you talk about league winners slash handcuffs? I feel like more often than not, these high upside handcuffs perform at lower than expected levels. What should we be looking for? I feel like our expectations sometimes far exceed the actual outcomes. Thanks, Yeah, they do usually perform under expectation. Years ago, I did a study on handcuffs. What I found was that even when an injury occurred to a running back, a top running back, even when we had an opportunity for their handcuff to step in, those handcuffs didn't do a whole lot because there was likely still a split backfield, or because they just weren't very good. They're backups for a reason. There's a lot to that study. Like I analyzed top twelve running backs by ADP and I looked at where their backups were being drafted to determine if a player was a handcuff or not. But it's very rare for true handcuffs to ball out, which is why I always preach about targeting backs and ambiguous backfields. And look across the landscape right now, Yes, we'll all remember Truba Hubbard being an RB two while Christian McCaffrey was out. I'm not denying that handcuffs can work. Alexander Madison had a couple of great games this year too, and I'm not even saying that handcuffs shouldn't be added. I'm more against drafting handcuffs, especially high end handcuffs, because of expected value. But look across the landscape. Elijah Mitchell ambiguous backfield, Leonard Fournette ambiguous backfield, Michael Carter ambiguous backfield, Chase Edmonds ambiguous backfield, Cordero Patterson sort of an ambiguous backfield. At least Mike Davis wasn't some high end player where Patterson was handcuff. Daryl Henderson was even part of an ambiguous backfield once they got Sony Michelle. You can get usable weeks here and there from handcuffs, but you can't guarantee those are happening at the beginning of the season. People who drafted Alexander Madison were pretty fortunate that there was a Dalvin Cook injury early on, because otherwise they just be holding onto Madison for weeks and weeks without any usability. I mean, how many people with Alexander Madison right now are starting him this weekend? He has zero usability as long as Dalvin Cook is healthy. And you know what happens when people hold onto handcuffs when their starters aren't getting hurt. People drop those handcuffs. I've picked up Alexander Madison in home leagues this season, and for the vast majority of you listening to the show, that's your league. You're trying to beat your buddies, your coworkers, and your neighbors. There's not a one size fits all strategy here. I can't be clear enough about that. There are leagues where drafting handcuffs make sense, and there are handcuffs where their costs are so low that it's fine to throw that art Chuba Hubbard was actually a pretty good example of that this year. That pick was way more defensible even without the benefit of hindsight. And again, this is about drafting handcuffs not adding them later in the season. It's just that in the majority of leagues, going after those high end backups is usually a bad idea for a lot of reasons. One of those reasons being your opportunity costs because you're missing out at a dart throw at one of those ambiguous backfields. And those ambiguous backfields, those are the ones that are bringing us more sustainable fantasy production week in and week out. The last question this week is from at Jay Yorki thirty nine. Do you consume fantasy content from other analysts? If so, whose content do you find yourself prioritizing. Has anyone's work especially influenced you, either today or early in your career. I figured i'd end on something that was a little less advice driven this week because I actually get this question quite a bit. I admittedly don't consume a ton of fantasy content in season. I just don't have the time to do it. It's also kind of nice because it doesn't influence the things that I say on the show. I'm just giving you guys my brain, no one else's, and by the way, that makes this podcast really exciting for me each episode. I don't know how many of you guys know this. But I put this show together completely by myself. I come up with the topics, I come up with what I'm gonna say, I do the research, I record it, I edit it, and I publish it. No one else listens to this show before it gets pushed to everyone. It's kind of scary. I see it more as thrilling than scary. But it's scary to put yourself out there without anyone giving you feedback on whether or not what you're saying makes any sense. But I think the fact that I do that, that I'm not influenced by literally anyone when it comes to the advice that I give. I think that makes this show a little bit unique. It's one of the things that I think resonates with people. I do get stuck sometimes, though, and when that happens, I just hit up my close friends that are in the space. I talk to Jim Sonis and Brandon Goadola, two incredibly smart people who work with me at Number Fivere and Fandle I message my go two analysts, a guy that does incredible work, and Rich Reebar are at Lord Reeves on Twitter. Rich and I have long conversations about how we feel about players in situations all the time, especially during the off season. In season, it's just a little bit tougher to do. I've also always gravitated towards people who do things differently than I do, because I think I can learn from them a little bit more like Evan Silva. It's not that Evan's not numbers heavy or that he doesn't care about numbers, but the thing that separates him from other people in this space is that he just knows more about football than you do, period. And I've told him this and how I respect him so much for it. But I also am always learning from people who make content and creative ways. You guys know that Pete overs At is this hilarious dude and he can make anyone laugh. And yes, he is hilarious. I've had the pleasure of hanging out with him and had a blast. But Pete's really good at differentiating what he does within this space. He's put together some really really smart show concepts and content. That's the kind of stuff I'm always paying attention to and looking at because it gets my creative juice is flowing. I'm much more inclined, though, to look at studies in fantasy analysis that's done during the off season, because those studies usually are more foundational and they're not just here's who you should pick up this week. Sometimes I can actually build off of them, and sometimes I just message the person who did the study and I say, hey, you want to come on my podcast and talk about it. All of the guests that I've had in the past are people that I pay attention to. There are people that I read. There's a lot of smart people in this fantasy football industry doing some awesome work, and it's amazing that I can learn from them and be better myself. It's just that during the season, I'm almost forced to just do me. That's going to know for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You know, to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening this week everyone, I really really appreciate it. Good luck in Week nine. I'll talk to you next week.