605: Mailbag 12/31/21

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad podcast with your host JJ zacher Resa, j J zacher Reason. What's up everyone? It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at FANDL and at Number five dot com. And this is episode six hundred and five of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the Fandel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. As always, don't forget about this week's Fandel Podcast network Listener League. Check out fandle dot com Slash League slash Listener Lead to join. It's a rake free contest that costs five dollars to enter and has fifteen hundred dollars in prizes. You can interrupt the three lineups to the contest. Again. That's fandle dot com Slash League Slash Listener League. To join. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the fandle app for more details. The first question this week says, Hi, JJ, thanks to you, I'm in the final of my home league. Congrats. I get the feeling that this year was a bad year for quarterback streaming. Normally I have a better hit rate with streamers, but this year feels like streaming didn't work well. Is it me bad luck or a strange year. Quarterback streaming has been tough for the last two seasons, not just this one, and a lot of it is because two things have happened. Number One, top quarterbacks are bigger difference makers compared to replacement level players, at least compared to years past. But number two, those top quarterbacks are more predictable, meaning the guys who are at the top of the quarterback rankings right now they weren't out of nowhere players. I talked about this a lot over the last two off seasons. We have these quarterbacks who can now run the ball well and throw the ball well, and the market has finally recognized how to properly value them, or maybe properly isn't the right word, but the market at least understands the value of rushing, whether it's with Kyler Murray or Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts. The market gets it more than it used to. And then, on top of that, pocket passers like Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady they generally did well this year two A lot of these quarterbacks were selected in the top ten or the top twelve and drafts, and then the replacement level guys. They're just not as predictable as a result, because the pool of replacement level players isn't what it used to be. I've got another podcast called Living the Stream. Each week my co host Denny Carter and I we talked through our favorite quarterback tight end in defensive streamers. In a typical year, we're gonna stream the equivalent of a defense two or three. And keep in mind, with our streaming picks, we don't have the luxury of finding someone off the waiver wire and just starting them each week. Like if we said the ad Taysom Hill and then his percent roster number got too high, we don't recommend Hill anymore. We don't have that luxury now. Tight end is typically tough to stream, as you'd guess, but with quarterback, we went through a stretch in like the twenty fifteen to twenty seventeen range where we were legitimately streaming a QB five each year in points per game, like we've got receipts, but last year was our worst season doing this that dates back like a solid seven years stream like the QB nine QB ten in points per game this year among our main streaming picks each week, so not our deeper plays. This year, we're at a little over eighteen points per game, so we're in like the Joe Burrow Kirk Cousins range. That's low end QB one territory. That's not nearly as good as we used to be. But look at the quarterback landscape right now. Part of the reason streaming has been more difficult is because the quarterbacks who we thought would be good entering the season, they're the ones at the top and points per game. There's more predictability than ever at the position when looking at an average draft position versus postseason result, and that means the quarterbacks that we're choosing from on a weekly basis just don't have as much quality. That's at least my hypothesis. It was the way I felt about the position entering the season. Streaming should never be your go to strategy. You should be trying to find the Jalen Hurts of the world who are nice laterish round values. It's just that streaming can still be effective, or at least effective enough, and it's still been effective enough this year. It just hasn't been as good as it used to be. The next question is from at Vonte Underscore Mac. What are your thoughts on wide receivers and running backs tied to mobile second year quarterbacks. Do the numbers significantly improve or stabilize for the skill positions when a mobile quarterback enters their second season. So I'm assuming this question stems from studies that I did over the off season on how players are impacted by mobile and rookie quarterbacks. But I sort of think in this question you're combining the two studies. In one study, I found that rookie quarterbacks generally don't support their pass catchers very well. We typically don't see high end seasons from wide receivers and an offense with a rookie quarterback. In the other study, I looked at mobile quarterbacks and how they impact their teammates and fantasy And in that study, I didn't separate by year in the league. It was all mobile quarterbacks, so it didn't matter if the player was in year one, year two, et cetera. I'd say, though, that there's probably a double whammy when you get a mobile quarterback who's also rookie, because rookie quarterbacks are not as efficient, and when quarterbacks run the ball a lot, the team passes less, there's less volume, and the quarterback himself is gobbling up more of that offense. So I would just say to remember that mobile quarterbacks, generally speaking, remember this is just a trend, but generally speaking, mobile quarterbacks in any year are not good for pass catchers. Of course, take it case by case, but I think it's an intuitive finding. And by the way, the episode and the impact that mobile quarterbacks have on their teammates is episode five hundred and ten and the episode on rookie quarterbacks is five to eighteen. The next question is from at the committche what are the most important things you can do to improve at fantasy football? So I sat down and thought about this one and realized that there are just so many things, like you can do so many things to improve as a manager. But I have two main things, two main buckets to remember and always keep in mind that should help. The first thing is to remember and understand that almost everything regresses player talent can make a player more or less efficient, and it will. But when players are doing things that are just out of this world that seem totally unsustainable, it's likely that it's actually unsustainable. Within the context of one season. Anything is possible. But across a larger sample football statistics regress. Everyone wants some golden key statistic that unlocks everything you ever wanted to know about fantasy football. But the truth is, instead of analyzing numbers to see which ones are most predictive, you should be analyzing numbers to see how players are going to regress. Now to this point, and this still falls under the same bucket, I think, but you should care just as much, if not more, about usage than production. Usage helps us see how sustainable production actually is. Production usually comes with usage. But there's a reason I'm always looking at target share or backfield share numbers or raw volume numbers. That kind of stuff helps us remove some of the up and down nature of player production. And then the other sort of category or thing that I'd say to always keep in mind is that you're gonna be wrong. Just to be honest with you, guys, nothing irritates me more than when I have some sort of stance in like week three, and then I change that stance in like week seven or eight, and then people get mad at me for changing my stance. Why is that a bad thing? Clearly, if I change my stance, I got new information, and with that new information, I'm trying to make an informed decision to help you. Doubling down on a bad take not only hurts you guys listening to this show, but it also hurts me as a fantasy manager, because when that happens, I'm too blind to reality. It's okay to be wrong about this stuff. More importantly, it's okay to admit when you're wrong about this stuff. You need to do that if you want to be a winning fantasy manager, because there's a lot of variance in this game, and a lot of things can change in an instant. What we think is reality one week becomes completely irrelevant the next. You don't want to have take lock when you get new information. You need to be flexible. And look, that doesn't mean that this stuff is just totally unpredictable. What it means is that when you know things can change, when you know that there is variance to this stuff, when you embrace that, you start to just generally view things differently. Instead of looking at a simple projection for a player's outcome, you look at a range of outcomes. You think in terms of probability instead of certainty, because you know variance exists. Having this mindset allows you to be contrarian in daily fantasy tournaments. It allows you to diversify your portfolio across leagues properly. It allows you to make better start set decisions. It has a profound impact on how you act as a fantasy manager. Embrace variants, understand that you're going to be wrong, and don't get so tied to specific metrics because those numbers are bound to regress. Those are the things I think people can improve on most as fantasy managers. This last question is from at pj hen seventy seven. HIJJ. I have used my high waiver priority or free agent budget to pick up many of the running backs that are now helping teams win championships, such as Jeff Wilson, Rashad Penny, and Justin Jackson. However, I dropped them once it appeared they were no longer holding value for higher valued players. At the time, it always seemed like I was a week too early for them. Whenever I do hold on to players, it seems like that anticipated value never materializes. Are you able to assess where I might be going wrong? Thanks, so it's have to know where you're going wrong, But with Jeff Wilson and Justin Jackson in particular. You're referring to handcuffs here, and I think that's probably what a lot of people can relate to. They end up dropping handcuffs, and then immediately when they drop that handcuff, the starter gets hurt. Or that's what it seems like. You never know which starting running back is going to get hurt. But when you're adding players off the waiver wire, you should be constantly asking yourself if you're ever going to actually use that guy. Like I go through my fifteen transactions list each week, I don't automatically add all of the players that I talk about. It's league and team dependent. If there's a wide receiver who's probably not gonna be anything more than like a why receiver three in a given week that I'd rather just hold a handcuff who actually has some weekly upside. So I can't really analyze this situation without knowing who you added for those players, But you should always be thinking about that sort of upside when you're looking at your bench. It goes back to what I just talked about. Understand range of outcomes and think through those outcomes as you're adding and dropping players. This be'st questions from at Run Underscore, CMC Underscore forty four late season. Wide receiver streaming feels like it's becoming a thing, yet all the talk is always about running backs, so I don't think streaming running backs or wide receivers is really a thing. The reason we can stream quarterbacks and tight ends and defenses that has to do with the fact that teams are only starting one of them in a typical fantasy football lineup, so there's less demand for those positions, and that leaves a lot more of them on the waiver wire, a lot more usable pieces. With running backs and wide receivers, everyone is fighting for those players on the waiver wire each week, so it's harder to acquire them, and it's then hard to stream them. Now, if you're referring to finding gems on the waiver wire, yeah, you can find wide receivers. I don't think anyone is really disputing that though. We just talked about running back handcuffs because adding them is a way to get ahead of things, and we know running backs can step in and see a more predictable workload when their starter gets hurt. With wide receivers, it's often more gradual. It doesn't happen in an instant. It's more about talent and searching for trends that seem to point to that wide recier becoming a bigger part of the game plan. But I guess they just don't agree with the premise here. Streaming running backs and wide receivers is not really a thing. But if you're referring to just adding guys off the waiver wire each week, I don't think anyone is out there saying that you can't do that at wide receiver versus running back. This last question from at Underscore Diet Donut, is Aaron Jones's usage concerning enough to bench him this week? Now? I don't answer start sick questions on this mailbag show because they're just not very appealing. But I have like three people ask me about Aaron Jones this week, So let me just break this down for a sec. Is his usage concerning? I mean kind of, but I don't think it's so concerning to bench him. He's seen about sixty percent of Green Bay's running back rushes over his last two games, and he hit an eighteen percent target chair last week. Meanwhile, he gets a plus matchup this week, it's Minnesota, where the Packers are six and a half point favorites. Basically, even with that split backfield, I can't imagine you have a better option on your bench than Aaron Jones. He's a top ten or twelve option this week, if not better, So you'd need to have three or four top ten running backs to bench him in most cases. This has questions from at Az Claire. My opponent has Jonathan Taylor. Was it a dumb move to drop Mooney for Nahim Hines to potentially block him. I have two more wide receivers on my bench that would play over Mooney if something happens to my starters, and my opponent has better bench wide receivers too, So let's just talk about this at a high level. This is really asking you if you should drop players on your bench who you won't use and who your opponent won't use for players that your opponent might want to use. And the answer to this is absolutely yes. You should be blocking your opponent from getting the best players. You're trying to win. You do whatever you can within the rules to win. This is just strategy, and like I talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show earlier this week. There's an argument to make that dropping guys like Terry McLaurin, who could be enticing to your opponent, that you may want to drop those players because they haven't been productive, but they have big names. That's all part of the game this time of year. So you're thinking the right way if you're doing this. This last question says, what is your podcast schedule like for the off season? Also, you often mention your rookie evaluation, but I haven't seen what goes into the process. And will you release a list during the off season prior to next year's fantasy draft. So this is the last episode of the season for me, and then I'm planning to take a week off from the show and reset a little bit. And for those of you who are new to this show, I do off season content early in the week. I do one episode on some random topic each week, and then I do a mailbag show every Friday. I love the off season because I have time to do the studies that I reference all the time on the show, and it's time to do work with the incoming rookie class. Now I've gone through my rookie evaluation work every single year, my process which rookies. I like all of that stuff. I do it every year and this year will not be any different, So please don't unsubscribe from the show. I'll have some content for you guys throughout the off season. The last question this week is from at BDFFB. Other than helping your followers win a fantasy championship, what is the most gratifying part of your job? I think it's appropriate to end today's show, the last one of the season, with this question. First and foremost, I want you guys to all win your fantasy championships. Some analysts may not care how well their audience does, but I care a lot. I love hearing that my advice helped you out, or that a process that I talked about got you a title. Aside from that, though, I think life is about relationships, and by far the best part of this job is the relationship that I've been able to build. Not just with other analysts in the industry either. I've made some really great friends in this space who do what I do, who sit on podcasts and talk about fantasy football every day, and I'm forever grateful for getting the chance to meet those people. But I enjoyed the hell out of the relationships that I built with listeners too. To me, we're on this fantasy football journey together. I play fantasy football too. I've got my home league, my local league, I've got expert leagues. I'm trying to win titles too. There's no reason for me to act like I'm not tilting every Sunday when things seem to not go my way. There's no reason for me to act like I'm not in the literal, exact same position as you guys with this stuff. And there's a cool bond with that. I think when we're on this journey together, when we escape reality for a little bit together, that naturally formed some cool relationships. And I'll tell you what, I've done a lot with my career that I'm very proud of, but nothing compares to the messages in the emails that I get from people who tell me that they were in a bad place, that things weren't going their way in life, but my podcast and my content helped them. It helped them escape, It helped them just get away from those problems for a little bit as they thought about their fantasy teams. I can't put into words how rewarding that is, like, it's cool to get recognized in this space and to win awards, but nothing is better than having the privilege to sit here and to build relationships with people just by speaking about a game that we all love. So thank you all for going on this journey with me this year. I can't explain how much it means to me that you tune into this show. It gets me excited to do my job each and every day, and I don't think that's ever gonna go away. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening the season everyone, I really really do appreciate it. I cannot wait for the off season. Big things are coming. Happy New Year to everyone. I will talk to you soon.