482: Sell Candidates

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Speaker 1: This is the labor of podcast with your host JJ zacher Resa Jay Jake zacher reson What's up Everyone.

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Speaker 2: It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at fandle and at Number five dot com in this episode four hundred and eighty two of the Late Round podcast when many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network.

00:00:23
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 2: If you listen to the show last week, then you heard me talk about a handful of players and I'm looking to buy this offseason in Dynasty. Naturally, this week is all about the other side of that, players that I'd be looking to sell. This episode is always a lot harder than the other one because when analysts come out and say you should get rid of this player, people remember those takes more. And since these players are being traded away, that means I'm viewing them as overrated. And in order to be overrated, a player's got to have some sort of significant value, otherwise it wouldn't matter what that means is. I've got to talk about legitimately good players on today's show. Last week's show had a lot of sleepers and guys you could trade for.

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Speaker 1: By giving away very little.

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Speaker 2: I can't exactly do that this week because it's less actionable than for you guys. So keep this in mind as you listen today. I'm not saying to sell these players at all costs. I'm saying to sell these players at cost There's a big difference there. Now, before we get into the list of players that'd be looking to sell this offseason, just a reminder that with the NBA regular season underway, there's no better place to play daily fantasy than with Fandle. Fandel is offering an NBA single game Shootout Series contest, where your top three scorers from three separate contests will make you eligible to compete for the ten thousand dollars first place prize. The top sixteen hundred participants get paid out from a fifty thousand dollars prize pool. Contests that are eligible to count towards your score will be labeled with Shootout Series. For more details, visit fandle dot com or download the fandal app today. Eligibility orstrictions apply.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: Like the buy side of things, I don't have really really strong takes on quarterbacks on the cell side either. I thought about talking about Aaron Rodgers because he's a clear clear regression candidate, but I don't think that he's like this supremely overrated asset in Dynasty right now. So I don't want to push any of you in a direction that feels forced, and calling any quarterback this offseason to sell, especially with the carousel that's going on, that would feel forced. So I'm gonna kick things off today at the running back position. I typically love selling running backs and Dynasty since the position turns over a good bit and you can get immediate production in your rookie drafts. According to Dynasty League Football's average draft position data, Josh Jacobs is the RB ten and look. I like Josh Jacobs. I think he's a good player. I just also think there are some red flags surrounding him, and that's a hefty price to pay with those red flags existing. Probably the biggest issue that we've got with Jacobs has been the lack of pass catching.

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Speaker 1: So far through his two year career and.

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Speaker 2: Twenty nineteen, he handled just five point seven percent of the Raiders targets in thirteen games, but even across sixteen games that would have prorated to about a seven percent target chair. That's nothing special at all. This past year that pro rated share jumped to nine point two percent. That's good to see an increase, but it's still not as high as we'd like to see from a running back that ye're drafting in the top ten at the position. He also wasn't very special as a player in twenty twenty. He had an average success rate, which measures the percentage of positive expected points runs made by a running back, and his yards per carry compared to his teammates yards per carry saw a minus point six y five yards per carry difference, meaning looking at all of his running back teammates yards and carries that they had, they averaged point six y five more yards per attempt than Josh Jacobs did this past year. Among the twenty three backs with one hundred and fifty or more carries, that difference was fourth worst. It's not the most predictive metric in the world when looking year over year, but it does show us that he just wasn't all that great in twenty twenty, and that worries me a bit. Jacob's to me, he's just profiling to be a player who's sure he can live up to where he's being drafted. His ADP makes sense, but I think you can make the argument that a player like Antonio Gibson, who's being drafted seven spots behind Jacobs, I think you can make an easier argument that he's the better Dynasty asset because of upside. So again, it's not that I don't like Jacobs, it's that he's not necessarily shown to be some Stutley all around back over his two years in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: It's feeling a lot like it felt with Joe Mixon.

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Speaker 2: And while I think that Mixing is a buye right now, that's only because he's starting to finally see more work as a receiver and his cost is a lot lower, so you're not taking on as much to get a player like Mixin. But realistically, if you have a short window and you're trying to win now, you're better off just for going Jacobs and just getting mix In a little bit later. That's at least my opinion from a short term perspective. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about Miles Gaskin. If you take a look at January's startup ADP data from Dynasty League Football, Gaskin comes in at RB twenty four as the seventy fifth overall pick. That's in single quarterback formats. It wasn't that he was bad this year. In fact, he probably was undervalued by the masses. He finished twenty twenty with a top twenty performance in each of his final six games played. He gave us top ten running back numbers on a points per game basis. Now, is he a special talent. I didn't really mind him as a prospect per se, but my model wasn't in love with him thanks to a mediocre reception share and not great draft capital. I think you have to question that talent too when you consider what other running backs, specifically Savon Akman, what they did when he was banged up. When Akman was seeing RB one work in that backfield. He also consistently gave us top twenty performances. He had three of them in his three games with double digit carries this year. So we can say Gaskin is good, and I won't deny that. I think he's a solid back, But to see other running backs thrive in similar circumstances, even though I also think that Savon Ackman is a fine back too, but to see other running backs thrive that scares me a little bit. And that's on top of the fact that there wasn't a big investment with Gaskin and he doesn't really have the protot typical bell cow size at five t nine two hundred and one pounds.

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Speaker 1: Miami's also in a situation where they've.

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Speaker 2: Got five Day one and Day two picks, and They've also got a pretty desirable cap situation. Now, even though I'm not one who would invest much into a running back, and even though I do think that the Dolphins are progressive in how they think about team building, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they get a true bell cow this offseason. And if that happens, Miles gask And all of a sudden loses tons and tons of value. So to me, I wouldn't be touching him at his ADP. He could pan out, of course, but there are just so many things working against him as a later round draft selection who's also got a small sample of success. I've talked about this already this offseason, but I'm in the cell David Montgomery camp. I do think it's a little bit different in redraft than in dynasty, wherein redraft, your cost of taking on Montgomery is not very high. It's not like you have to hold on to him year over year. But a whole lot went in his favor in twenty twenty, at least down the stretch of which is why anyone would be excited about Montgomery in the first place. But don't forget, guys, Montgomery was not super special through the first half of the season. From weeks one through nine, which marked nine of his fifteen games played, Montgomery was averaging twelve point three PPR points per game. For some perspective, that's a number that would have placed him outside the top twenty fourth the position had he kept that up, but he didn't. As we know, from weeks twelve through seventeen, Montgomery's points per game average jumped to almost twenty six. He scored at least twenty PPR points in every single contest during that stretch.

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Speaker 1: It was unbelievable.

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Speaker 2: As I had talked about on the fifteen Transaction Show, throughout the season, Chicago had a really, really nice stretch schedule wise.

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Speaker 1: To end their season.

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Speaker 2: They faced Green Bay, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, Jacksonville, and then Green Bay once again. Those were Montgomery's opponents during his beastly run. When looking at adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. Green Bay was the seventh most advantageous matchup, Detroit was second, was first, Minnesota was sixth, and Jacksonville was third. Montgomery beat up on some really, really bad rush defenses, and that's great. We want to see that happen. But that's context that's still necessary. Now, digging even deeper, Montgomery scored eight total touchdowns across his final six games after finding the end zone twice during his first nine. Now, keep in mind, this is not how touchdown regression works. This was an over correction. With that being said, Montgomery did finish with about as many touchdowns as he should have last season based on math. I'm just saying that we shouldn't overemphasize what he did at the end of the season because it just wasn't sustainable. It wasn't just the matchups, but it was the touchdown scoring as well. And then on top of all this, Tarik Cohen was out last year, Montgomery saw his target share rise from five point two percent to eleven point two percent. Before this season, Cohen had averaged a target share per season of seventeen percent. That's why David Montgomery, to me, is a Cell.

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Speaker 1: You don't always have to sell high.

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Speaker 2: You can sell low too, and I think that's what you've got to do if you have James Connor. Connor's currently the RB thirty three according to Dynasty League Football, but there are other high upside backs like Chase Edmonds or Tony Pollard. Those guys are going after him, according to ADP, and I would much rather take a chance on one of those players, either having just some sort of tandem role with their starter or having handcuff upside than I would with James Connor being a strongly relevant piece again in fantasy football. And it pains me to say that I'm a pit graduate. I was born and raised in Pittsburgh. I love James Connor. His story is inspiring too, but he's a free agent. Even if he went back to the Steelers in a team friendly deal, you've got to imagine that Pittsburgh's not going to plan to feature him like they did in twenty eighteen. That's when he broke out and he had his awesome thirteen touchdown season in thirteen games. There's not that much data with this recommendation. That's sort of why I wanted to bring it up. Connor just hasn't been able to stay healthy. And when what he does, what he brings to the tables the fact that he can handle a big workload, when that's sort of gone since the health side hasn't been there, it means that teams are going to be hesitant to offer him a clear starting role. And if you look at the running back landscape, it's not like starting roles at running back are everywhere, and in the places where things are vacant, teams are more likely to build their depth through the draft or through objectively better free agent running backs. So yeah, I just see Connor as just not having a whole lot of dynasty value. I was pretty surprised that he was being ranked ahead of the high end handcuffs who also have some standalone value. Now I'm going to stick with the Pittsburgh free agent theme and shift to wide receiver and talk about Juju Smith Schuster. Juju is someone who analysts who prospect through analytics generally love. He had great sophomore year production in college. He had an elite breakout age, and then when he hit the NFL he produced over the last two years, though as we know, that production hasn't looked as good. He did bounce back a bit in twenty twenty with Ben Roethlisberger back and under center, but he also saw a massive jump in slot snaps. In twenty nineteen, he played about two thirds of his snaps from the slot, but in twenty twenty that number was eighty five percent. This past year, according to Pro Football Focus, Juju saw over one hundred targets from that area of the field. He actually had more slot targets than any other player in football. Now why is that significant? Well, winning in the slot is generally easier than winning outside. Using that same PFF data, Juju has significantly won inside at a better rate than he has outside. Last year, his yards per target rate was over three yards better inside than out. It was about a yard better the year before that, and then during his second year in the league, when he balled out, it was point six yards per target better. Now, that's not abnormal, But what's worrisome is the fact that he hasn't necessarily shown that he can be a number one guy who wins outside when he did so well in year two, as we know, he had Antonio Brown there helping make defenses.

00:12:03
Speaker 1: Honest, since AB's been gone, we can't deny.

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Speaker 2: That Juju's not only seen his effectiveness on the outside dip, but the Steelers threw him into the slot more, which could be a sign that they don't necessarily believe that he can win outside consistently. There's nothing wrong with that for an elite slot receiver, and I think that's what Juju is.

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Speaker 1: The issue is that I.

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Speaker 2: Want my wide receivers to have a lot of upside, and it's hard to do that by playing so much in the slot, let alone playing in the slot on an unknown team.

00:12:32
Speaker 1: And remember that unknown team is.

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Speaker 2: Likely to not be as pass heavy as Pittsburgh's been over the last few years when Ben Roethlisberger's been healthy. Chances are Juju won't be a Steeler next season, so we don't even have the luxury of knowing what team he's gonna be on the ambiguity, in my opinion, for a player who just can't win on his own, that should drive down his price, but it's not really doing that since he's still being drafted ahead of someone like Brandon Auk According to DLF, I.

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Speaker 1: Just think that we have to be realistic here.

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Speaker 2: If you can find a spot where he's got a great compliment on a pass heavy team, then things should work out. But you could say that for a lot of wide receivers. I just don't want to bank on that.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: Another wide receiver where I'm just kind of worried about the ceiling is Marquise Hollywood Brown. I was into Brown this past year in redraft, but I think there are a lot of reasons to sort of move on in most dynasty leagues now. I say most because I do think that he's still fine in leagues where you've got deep starting rosters and you know that you're not going to have this totally flawless lineup. I don't think he's like going to go away or anything. It's just pretty obvious after two years that the Ravens are a run heavy team, and while Brown has a lot of big play upside, he really needs a lot working in his favor in order to hit as a fantasy asset. Let me explain what I mean by that. If you recall, Brown really turned around his twenty twenty campaign towards the end of the year. From weeks one through eleven, he averaged eight point seven Fantasy points per game. From week two twelve on that number, jumped to sixteen. But look what happened to his production. His target share per game went from twenty one point seven percent to thirty four point eight percent in and out of that split, and then with that increase in target share, Brown averaged a touchdown per game in that down the stretch split, so a thirty five percent target shair and a touchdown per game. If almost any other wide receiver in any other offense had those numbers, he would have been locked in as a top five wide receiver in fantasy. Brown was not that. Brown actually still didn't produce a single wide receiver one performance because the Ravens just don't throw the ball that much. Over the last three years, Baltimore's ring thirty second, thirty second, and thirtieth in neutral script pass rate. Of course, Lamar Jackson could be gone as the starter at some point, which would give Marquise Brown more opportunity for volume, or they might just throw it a little bit more, But ask yourself when that's actually going to happen. There's at least going to be one more year with Lamar Jackson at least, and Baltimore is more than likely going to try to do something to boost its wide receiver group. If that happens, then there's no chance Brown maintains close to that thirty five percent target chair that he was maintaining down the stretch. This is just a classic case of how on the field production and what a player may be able to give a real NFL offense. It doesn't always translate to fantasy and that's okay. It's just important to recognize it. Brown right now is admittedly reasonably priced. I have no issue with him going as the wide receiver thirty nine in startups, right ahead of Michael Pittman and right after Denzel Mams. I do think those guys who I just mentioned they present more alpha potential. But Brown's still going to give you something. It's just that I know that Hollywood Brown truthers are out there, so I had to call out the fact that this could be the time to move on now. Over these last two non mail bag episodes, where I've talked about players I'm buying and selling, I haven't given you lists on lists on lists of players that perfectly fall into those buckets, because that's not how I play fantasy football. You should be open to trading nearly anyone, and you should be open to trading for nearly anyone. It all depends on cost and what your team build looks like. I just wanted to highlight a handful of players so you knew where my brain was at and how I think about this stuff. That's what the show is really all about. As you know, it's my place to just brain vomit, and I think understanding the why is more important than just seeing a list and going from there. It should help you formulate a process to know when it's smart to buy and sell. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you later in the week.