1017: Week 2 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacheris j J zacher reson What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode oney seventeen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions in prizes with their first deposit of five dollars or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code Late Round to play free for your share of millions. The crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hundred gambler in New York call eight seven to seven eight hope NY in Connecticut called eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven eighteen plus in most states. Eligible and restrictions apply ends December thirty first see terms at DraftKings dot com. Slash Promotions. Week one is always a hard sleeper show to do because we have such little information, but we did have some hits from last week. Javonte Williams was a big w from that opening game, though he was even better than I expected. Kyle Pitts had a good outing, Cedric Tillman was really solid, Michael Pennox was great. I called out both Brown's running backs and liked Jerome Ford Moore, so that was an l but I at least had Dylan Sampson as a shout. And probably the biggest hit was Daniel Jones, who wasn't on many rosters at all entering week one. But with the hits that were definitely misses, Tank Bigsby, Josh Downs, Trevor Lawrence, they all disappointed. Ollie Gordon did nothing, Xavier Leaguett was a bust, and we didn't get anything from Kate Totten neither. Definitely not my best week, but with more data comes more accuracy. So let's hope that we can turn things around. Now. Before I get going with this week's show, I do want to make a quick statement, as you know, I switch up the show this year, and I'm featuring players who have rostership percentages in the following buckets fifty to eighty percent, twenty to fifty percent, and then less than twenty percent. I receive some feedback about this, both good and bad. The good feedback was that people really liked that I'm looking at the fifty to eighty percent players. The bad feedback was that people wanted more deep sleepers, So I'm gonna do all of the above. We're keeping the format the same, but I'll do my best to shout out a few deep sleepers each and every week. Guys rostered and fewer than ten percent of leagues, often fewer than five percent of them, so hopefully that's gonna help everyone. So without further ado, let's get to the sleepers this week. We'll kick things off with the players rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues, and we'll start at quarterback with Jordan Love. Now, this might look bad early on because they play on Thursday night, but that game against Washington is protected to be a high scoring one with a forty eight and a half point total, and the Packers team total currently sits as the fifth highest on the week across the league. Green Bay was run heavy in Week one because they had such a positive gamescript, and that might happen again this week. But what was good to see was that their pass rate over expected according to NFELO, was pretty neutral at minus point five percent last week. Last year, that number was minus eight percent. The Packers defense played great in Week one, and maybe that does limit this Packers offense, but we know that Washington has firepower, so it could result in a back and forth contest. Next up at quarterback in this tier is JJ McCarthy. He really came alive in the second half of that game against the Bears in Week one. This week he's in a dome environment against the Falcons, and Minnesota has a twenty five point implied total. One thing to love about McCarthy's Week one was that he showed off his athleticism. He ended up with twenty five rushing yards and a rushing score. Now he may not give you as many scrambles as someone like even Caleb Williams, but we at least know it's there against the Falcons. Like I said at home in Minnesota, you have to like the upside. Now running back in this tier, I've got Dylan Samson. I think you have to look his way after what he did last week against Cincinnati. Cleveland's gonna face the Ravens this week. It's a much tougher matchup and while Sampson probably won't be able to maintain that nineteen percent target share that he saw last week on a thirty one percent route share. I do think we're gonna see his route participation increase here in week two because he looked good and last week he already saw over half of Cleveland's running back rushes, even if he wasn't that efficient. Now, one thing I will say about this play, and this was kind of the thesis for Jerome Ford last week, but Ford did play eighty six percent of the Browns long down and distance snaps. That's according to Fantasy Life data. He played one hundred percent of the team's two minute snaps. They kept things relatively close against Cincinnati, but I don't think we're gonna feel that confident that they can keep things close against Baltimore. So do be aware that this play of Dylan Sampson could go south. And at this moment, I'm not overly concerned about Quinn Shawn Judkins here in week two. Longer term, definitely concerned. Now, another player from this tier to call out is my guy bay Shall Tuton. There's no Tank Bigsby for Jacksonville, which means they're going to be trotting out Travis Etn bay Shall Tuton and LeQuinn Allen against the Bengals. Etn's gonna get the most work, but he's coming off a game where he saw sixty four percent of Jacksonville's running back rushes. Would it be that surprising if Touton gets around a thirty percent running back rush, heare in this game with maybe a few targets and there's obviously room for more there if Jacksonville wants to get touton the ball more. No, I don't think it's a smash play at all, but the Jags get the Bengals and what could end up being a shootout this week. It's got the highest total on this week slate, So Tuton might be able to find the flex in some of your deeper lineups, and Austin Eckler might be able to find the flex too. Green Bay is a tough matchup, but we did see last week Jamiir Gibs hit the second highest target share of his career, and we know that pass catching and that role that's Austin Eckler's. In Week one, Eckler ran around on fifty one percent of Washington's dropbacks. Bill Krosky, Merritt and Gerry McNichols were under the twenty percent mark, and with the Packers being home favorites, there's always a possibility that Washington is not playing with a favorable game script that would help out. Eckler, Jackson, Smith, and Jigba had a monster game in Week one on the usage front, and I talked about that on yesterday's ten Trends episode. Cooper Cup, though, did run more routes, so it's not like he was completely forgotten about. Though his fourteen percent target share wasn't something that we love to see. With that being said, Cup ran fifty percent of his routes out of the slot for Seattle, and the Seahawks get Pittsburgh this week. That's a team that notoriously has been awful against slot receivers during the Mike Tomlin era. Now I won't be bold and rank him as a top thirty six wide receiver, but don't be surprised if Cooper Cup is more involved this week and then Hollywood Brown is still under that eighty percent mark. This one's pretty straightforward. Yes, it may not be the best matchup in the world, and I'm actually a little bit worried about how many points this Chiefs Eagles game sees, but Xavier Worthies, Iffy Rashi Rice is already out, and Brown is coming off a game where he had a forty two percent target chair. He's a wide receiver three for me in my early rankings. This week, Let's not look at some guys who are rostered in twenty to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. Starting with a familiar face, and that's Trevor Lawrence. Now, Ti law did not look sharp in Week one, There's no doubt about it. But Cincinnati has been bad defensively for over a year now, like really bad. And this game, like I said earlier, has the highest total on this week slate Jacksonville. They actually have a pretty favorable twenty three point total, and they should be more in a pass heavy script than they were last week. So I think you could go back to Lawrence this week, though I understand if you'd rather see it first. I like Michael Pennocks again this week. I like him enough. He came out with a big twenty four point performance last week against the Bucks, and what we can't expect a rushing touchdown each game from him, He did see six carries for twenty one yards. He had four scrambles in that game. We saw more rushing output from him in week one than what we saw from him in his limited time last year. Now, Atlanta gainst Minnesota. There's some fear there because the Vikings are at home and that's a tough defense to play against. But as long as Drake London ends up going, Pennix should be in mid QB two conversations. Another quarterback to look at this week is Geno Smith. He gets the Chargers. Now, I don't necessarily love this matchup, but I loved what we saw at the Raiders offense last week. They finished the week with the third highest pass rate over expected. They played at a top half pace too. This game's in Vegas. It's indoors as a reasonable forty six and a half point total. Now, if Brock Bauers doesn't go at the time of this recording, I have no idea if he is or not that I wouldn't be playing Geno Smith. But if brock Bowers is good to go, I think Geno Smith makes sense as a streamer. Now, I only have one running back in this tier this week, and it's Trey Benson. The Cardinals are six and a half point home favores, against the Panthers this week, and Caroline has been torched by running backs dating back to last year. No team allowed more Fantasy points to the position in twenty twenty four, and no team in twenty twenty five has allowed more rushing yards to running backs. Last week, we saw James Connor understandably deployed as their RB one. He had a sixty percent running back rush share, but that still allowed Benson to see eight touches on the ground, and Benson had a twenty six percent route share and saw a target through the air. So in a game script that could be similar, if not better, it wouldn't be surprising to see Benson with ten touches this week, and against this defense, that might be enough to be productive. I've also only got one wide receiver to talk about here, and it's Cedric Tillman. Look to me, I may still prefer Jerry Judy to Cedric Tillman, but like I said in the fifteen Transactions episode, there are reasons for it to be very very close, mainly that Tilman has outscored Judy and four of their last five games together, and those are games since the Amari Cooper trade. The Browns are huge underdogs this week against the raven So a passing script is very likely from this Cleveland offense. If Tilman can see another twenty to twenty five percent target share, then you're likely looking at eight to ten targets, So that warrants a call out. And now to tight end. There are a lot of tight ends in this tier, and I know there are a lot of fantasy managers out there who need tight end help. Harold Fannin's an obvious one to go to now. He didn't see the same number of routes as David and Joku last week, but Fannin did see a sixty four percent route participation rate. He lined up in the slot on forty two percent of his routes run. David and Joku was at twenty four percent, and Fannin looked great ended up seeing a ridiculous nine targets on his good but not great route participation. And I don't think the Browns can just put that away after what we saw in week one, So again negative game script operated often as a slot player for the Browns. I think there's a lot to like about Fannin this week and moving forward. Juwan Johnson's another one. I said in the fifteen Transactions episode. Johnson basically saw Trey McBride peripherals in week one. A twenty seven percent target chair, He ran a route on ninety six percent in New Orleans dropbacks. He had a sixty two percent slot rate too. That was a top five number for tight ends this week. This kind of usage is just way too hard to ignore. He's a legit option until we see that usage change, and that's very possible because it's only been one week. But tight end is brutal at the moment, as it usually is. You had to feel pretty good about the Brentons Strange usages past week two. A seventy percent route participation rate, that's pretty good. A fourteen percent target chair is fine. Four catches fifty nine yards and a forty four percent slot usage rate. Using a tight end against Cincinnati probably not a bad idea look at what we saw last week with Harold Fannin. Though it's not like Harold Fannin is the most traditional tight end in the world. But this game could see a lot of scoring and there could be more passing from this Jags offense this week. So I like Strange and then don't count out chigacon Quo just yet. I know he didn't come through last week, but the secondary numbers, they actually didn't look bad at all. He saw sixteen percent target share, there's nothing wrong with that. He had over an eighty two percent route participation rate. That's very, very strong, and he ran fifty two percent of his routes out of the slot. That's all according to PFF. The Titans don't have the best matchup in the world against the Rams, but la that's a better matchup than the one that he faced last week against Denver, and this one's being played in Tennessee, so as a more desperate play compared to the other guys. For those who are maybe kittle lists this week, I don't think Chig is a terrible, terrible option. Okay, with his final tier, we're looking at players roster and in fewer than twenty percent of Yahoo leaks, and I've got one running back in this tier, and it's a deep sleeper, la Quinn Allen. Yes, I love bashall Tutan, Yes I'm very excited about Tuton, but la Quinn Allen was a really good and prospect too. He had an amazing pass catching profile coming out of Syracuse and the Jags already this season. In Week one, they've deployed him in that kind of role. According to Fantasy Life data, Allen played eighty percent of the team's long down and distance snaps this past week and twenty percent of their two minute snaps. There's at least some chance that the Jags trail against the Bengals, and if that happens, le Quinn Allen could find the field and it's a high scoring matchup, So I do think he has some PPR appeal in deep deep leaks. Now, I went with Jordan Love earlier, and I don't mind one of his wideouts here in Romeo Dobbs. Dobbs was the only Packers wide out in Week one to run a route on over sixty percent of Green Bay's dropbacks, and he was at seventy four percent. That resulted in an eighteen percent target share. Now he gets a Commander secondary that wasn't very highly rated entering the season, and the game itself has shootout potential, so he makes plenty of sense as a sleeper this week. And Kaishan Boudi too. How do you not love of Kaishan Booty against this Dolphins secondary Miami's defense was Booty in Week one. That's the second time I used that joke in one week. I won't do it anymore, I promise, But we knew that they would have issues in their secondary entering the season. Booty had the best average at the target, target share, and rout participation on the Patriots in Week one. Now, Stefan Diggs will surely see more and more usage as the season goes on and he gets healthier, But for now, I think Booty is a legit option. Now I'm going to buy into the Elk i Amner peripherals just like I did Chickaconquos. If the Titans can move the ball a little bit better against the Rams, then I'd expect both of those players to come through with better stat lines. As I mentioned in the fifteen Transactions episode, I am in Er ended Week one with an eighty two percent route chair that was second best at wide out on the team, behind only Calvin Ridley. He had a twenty eight percent target share. Those are both amazingly good numbers for a rookie. His average at the target was also a ridiculous nineteen yard. Eventually, those peripherals will match good production. It was just tough last week against arguably the league's best defense. And then I've got a deep sleeper for you at wide receiver, and that's Jalen Naylor. The Vikings have a really solid twenty five point imply team total against the Falcons this week it's an indoor game, and in Week one, Naylor was Minnesota's wide receiver two because Jordan Addison suspended, and Addison obviously he's gonna be out in week two as well, but Naylor had a fifteen percent target share and a ninety six percent route participation rate. Maybe we do see more Adam Thielen this week because he's probably still getting acclimated to this offense. But this environment, this game environment's really good, and Naylor's peripherals in week one were not bad at all, so he makes sense as a deep sleeper. And then I have two super deep sleepers at tight end. The first one is Dalton Schultz. You know, Cad Stover was actually getting some run for Houston in week one, but he's now out definitely with a broken foot. Schultz is the lone tight end who's left for them who's relevant, and he had an eighteen and a half percent target share in week one. Houston faces the Bucks this week. It's an indoor game, and Tampa Bay was just beat up by Kyle Pitts. Maybe beat up is too strong of a phrase, but he did well against them. There are worse options than Schultz out there. And then a really weird one that I want to call out is Mason Taylor. He did nothing in Week one, I know nothing, He saw one target, but Taylor ran a route on eighty four percent of New York's dropbacks that was seventh across the league at tight end in route participation rate. The Jets are very likely going to see a negative game script against the Bills, and if that hits, they're gonna be forced to throw the ball a lot more than they want to, and that could benefit Mason Taylor again, just a very very deep sleeper. Now, as for the defensive streamers this week, I've got the Seahawks against the Steelers, like I said in the fifteen Transaction Show, and remember Seattle gets New Orleans next week. They could be a good play there too. I also like the Rams that they're still out there against the Titans. The Waivers definitely change their percent roster number. The forty nine Ers, same exact deal against New Orleans, though I wouldn't be as optimistic about San Francisco if brock Purty doesn't go. And then New England against Miami. Look at what Miami did last week offensively, it's hard to not feel good about the New England Patriots defense. So overall it's the Rams, forty nine Ers, Seahawks, and Patriots. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks Solvy for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. It to follow me on Twitter and on blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. Tomorrow, I have two episodes dropping. There's a Mailbag one in the morning and then a Perspective's one that'll drop at noon Eastern, And if you want to, you can check out the Late Round Fantasy Football show that's gonna stream live at one pm Eastern over on YouTube. Otherwise you can hear that audio on Saturday morning within the podcast feed. I'll talk to you guys tomorrow