300: Mailbag 10/18/19

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j Jake zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zachareson, the editor in chief at FanDuel and at number fire dot com. And this is episode three hundred of the Late Round podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. There were lots of good questions this week, so I'm going to get to them right away, sort of. I first have to tell you that another free roll is happening this week for all FanDuel podcast listeners. You can win a free Number fire subscription or even a little bit of cash. Just go to FanDuel dot com slash League slash Jim to enter for free. That's fandel dot com slash League slash Jim to enter this week's free role. This first question is from at Fantasy Scottie. I have Darren Waller and was able to grab Hunter Henry off the wire. Who are you higher on rest of season? And who should I be trying to sell for a running back or wide receiver upgrade? Thanks? So, I would prefer Hunter Henry over Darren Waller the rest of the season, given they shouldn't see that drastically different of a target share, And despite playing three fewer games than Waller, Henry has the same number of red zone targets. But the thing about trading is that you don't always want to just get rid of the player who you like less. You want a way how others in your league might view a particular guy and look at the cost benefit of keeping each player, Like if we like Hunter Henry more, but if you can't get anything for Darren Waller, but you can get a ton for Hunter Henry, then you can sell Henry. So my advice would be to talk to your league mates and see how they're feeling about each of these players, say that you're willing to part with either of them at the right price, and then kind of go from there. This next question from at fish Wind, is Godwin a sell high No. I don't think that he's going to necessarily finish as the wide receiver one. But there was a reason one of my bold predictions this year is that both Chris godd Win and Mike Evans we're gonna finish his wide receiver ones in twenty nineteen because the peripheral numbers were likely to be there, and they are. Godwin has seen almost twenty six percent of Tampa Bay's targets, and while he does have some negative regression heading his way in the touchdown column, I wouldn't be all that alarmed by it. The thing with regression is that it matters a lot more when players aren't seeing strong volume. But Godwin is so even though his yards tell us that he should have about two fewer touchdowns. Even if he starts to play at a eight where he's not scoring as much, He's still going to be just fine. It's hard to imagine a ton of wide receivers that I would rather have right now. This next question says thoughts on potential a JII landing spots and fantasy viability therein. So, if you look across the league, it's really hard to find teams that have any sort of opening at running back. Maybe Miami, but Miami's not gonna just go out there and get a veteran like that, and even if they did, the situation sucks anyway. Maybe the Buccaneers. Honestly, that's the only team that I think has somewhat of a hole at running but I wouldn't even consider that position super problematic for them right now, not just because the running back position doesn't matter a whole lot, but the combo they have is fine. Jayajaii is only going to be relevant in my opinion if an injury occurs. I think he's probably one of the top free agent running backs, but I'd rather roster flyers who were on NFL teams right now. Maybe that idea is gonna bite me in the butt, but I think that it's logical. This next question is from at draft Stranger. What did your model think about Mark Walton and how do you feel about him going forward? So, Walton didn't play a full season during his final collegiate year, and that's weighed the most in my model. But for someone like Walton, the model will then weigh his most relevant season, which was a sophomore one in twenty sixteen, because it's a model that's based heavily on college production, and his production wasn't horrible. What he did on the ground was below average compared to the rest of the twenty eighteen class, but he was a pretty good receiver and that's something that I found correlates well to NFL success. And then he was picked one hundred and twelfth overall, which isn't that bad of raft equity for a running back. So as a prospect, though we had below average athleticism, I actually kind of liked him, mostly because I'm a sucker for pass catchers, but the model ranked him as an average to slightly above average running back in last year's class. Now, with that being said, I don't think he needs to be a priority right now because the situation in Miami, like I just talked about, is really bad. I think he's fine enough to stash to see where his workload trends, but I'm not under the assumption that he's gonna be any sort of league winner this year. This next question is from at nick Degenerate thoughts on Nick Chubb. With schedule after the bye week and the return of Kareem Hunt looming still in RB one, my take on this Kareem Hunt thing hasn't really changed. I think it's a pretty volatile situation where we don't really know, and that's okay sometimes we don't know. My biggest concern with Kareem Hunt entering the picture is the target share potential for Nick Chubb. But fortunately right now Chubb has seen almost fourteen percent of Cleveland's targets this year. We know he's like to maintain a high running back rushing share rate, but I do think that we're gonna see his ninety one percent rate drop. So let's imagine a world where he sees maybe seventy five percent of the team's running back carries and nine or ten percent of the team's targets. That may push him out of the elite group of running backs or I guess the second tier given what Christian McCaffrey's doing, and more into that lower end RB one territory. And I'm just gonna throw an idea out here for you guys to think about. Kareem Hunt's return sort of coincides with Drew Brees's return. Brees might be able to come back next week, we don't really know, but the Saints have a buy in week nine, So that makes a potentially interesting time to buy Alvin Kamara because New Orleans may be cautious with Kamara given the injury that he's now dealing with. So if you have Chubb in a couple of weeks, depending on how things sort of break down, that could be your move. You can move on from him and try to get Alvin Kamara. But this is sort of just speculation in me thinking out loud. I just don't want to not say it because that's not fair to you guys. This next question is from a tone one three one eight, three to two. What's to make of Eckler and Aaron Jones for the rest of the season? Move off of them or hang tight? Yeah, So I have a few thoughts on this. Let's start with Austin Eckler. One thing that clearly happened for the Chargers last season was a rise in target share at the running back position. We saw about a five percent bump and target share year over year, and all the while the team's tight end target chair dropped by about five percent. There's a relationship between those two things that makes me a little bit worried about how sustainable the receiving work is going to be for Austin Eckler and even Melvin Gordon now that Hunter Henry is back. So if you can get rid of Eckler, even though I think that he's awesome and really good, I think it's fine. I actually traded Eckler and Juju Smith Schuster away this week for David Montgomery, which is my only share of David Montgomery and Robbie Anderson. That may come back to haunt me. But I love the Jets schedule. I love that both the players I got have had their bye and like I just said, I worry about Eckler's usage. Now let's talk about my man, Aaron Jones. I'm a truther, but a few weeks ago I said Aaron Jones was a sell candidate because of the touchdown regression that was likely to hit and the fact that Jamal Williams was getting work in that offense. And then Jamal Williams was concussed and we saw Aaron Jones do Aaron Jones things against Dallas. But the take of selling Jones never really went away. I even mentioned it last week on the Mailbag Show. The Jamal Williams threat is very real and on the season, based on his yardage total, Jones has four point eight more touchdowns than he should have. Right now, that's based on how running backs have scored over the last five years, and that's by far the highest differential in the NFL. So Jones is also someone I'm fine with selling as long as the price is right. This next question says, what are your thoughts on Ronald Jones seems to fit the mold of a good stash as he is getting passing work and some goal line opportunities currently, and if the situation ahead of him opens up, he'd be in line for a large workload. So Jones actually isn't getting that much work as a receiver. He only has a two point eight percent target share in that offense this year, he said, one game with more than one target, and Peyton Barber has double the number of goal line rushes that Ronald Jones has. Is he the most talented running back in that backfield? Yeah, I'd say that Ronald Jones is the best running back that the Bucks have. I didn't like Ronald Jones coming out, but I think that we can say that he's better than the other backs that they have. Things have to change a lot for him though, to be a weekly plug and play option. Like I said, his target share sucks and he's not seeing the bulk of the goal line work for Tampa Bay. Maybe things change out of the bye, who knows, but things do need to change pretty dramatically in order for him to be relevant in fantasy football. So I'm not actively buying Ronald Jones right now. This next question is from at the mister Rob three. How do you combat general league philosophy when it conflicts with your own? Do you conform to match competition or stay true to your strategy? I e. Ten team league one quarterback. Almost all managers draft two quarterbacks and carry them throughout the majority of the season. Do you trade stream? It? Honestly depends in this case. Can you find a quarterback off the waiver wire? Are you actually able to stream? I really just think that you have to be logical with things like I'm in a fourteen team league where people love to carry two quarterbacks. That means at least twenty five are going to be rostered. Do I really want to rely on streaming every week just for the sake of doing it? Not really, So. I drafted Kyler Murray and Josh Allen, two late round quarterbacks, and I still have both guys. Having that second quarterback in a deeper league is sometimes going to be more beneficial for your roster than a random flyer. So to answer your question, I conform to the competition when I have to conform. The next question is from at d Heck fifty one. When evaluating trades, how much weight do buy weeks carry? The opportunity cost has to be higher for underperforming teams to avoid by weeks. So what is your technique for extracting value over the next month. I think this question is a simple reminder that when you're making trades this time of year, it's important to see if the player you're trading has had their bye week or not. You might notice in my fifteen transactions call and then I'm often buying players who are entering their buy because you can often get them cheaper than you otherwise would John Brown last week, DJ Moore this week. Those are just two recent examples. But yeah, if you're a team that's struggling, you might want to get rid of players who still have their buy and get players who have already had theirs. But if you're a team that's doing well, you can target players on a buy to get them for a cheaper price. Hopefully that all makes sense. This asked questions from at Fantasy Tilt for Eva, Hey, JJ love the content, and then in parentheses he says thanks, because I always say thanks if you hit on a late round quarterback example, Lamar Jackson, is it smart to try and sell that quarterback and bench assets for a starting running back or wide receiver, and stream quarterback the rest of the season, assuming a ten to twelve team league. So I want to be clear about something here. I don't think streaming is the answer. It's just the worst case scenario that isn't that bad. If you want to sell Lamar Jackson, that's fine. I think people will generally overvalue the quarterback position, so I totally get it. If you can get a really nice, usable running back or wide receiver for Lamar Jackson, I'll take that. But do know that streaming isn't the answer in a lot of leagues because, like I've shown before, the streamers that I've compiled with my podcast co host Denny Carter on my other show, Living the Stream, that streamer generally falls in the QB six to QB eight territory. So you're still taking a hit at that position. If you trade Lamar Jackson and you just start to stream, you're making up for it hopefully at running back and wide receiver. But it's not a flawless transition to streaming. This next question from at Joe Neely, is Josh Gordon droppable? I wouldn't drop Josh Gordon. No. Before getting hurt this past week, he had seen a twenty percent target share or better in every game since Week two, and in that Week two game his target share was still eighteen percent. The volume was there without a ton of competition in New England's passing attack. I still think he can be veryvery usable when he's healthy. This last question is another Patriots question, is from at user Bryce. How do you value the pats defense as far as trades are concerned. I know the conventional wisdom is that defenses don't have real trade value in fantasy football, but are they a true exception to the rule. I've got the Patriots defense in a couple of leagues, and my record in those leagues is awesome. I can't pretend like the Patriots defense had nothing to do with that. But let's look at reality. I've talked before on this show that the Patriots defense is really good. It's not just the products of their opponents. But at the same time, we have to recognize that from a fantasy perspective, their opponents do matter. Who they've faced matters, and those opponents are gonna be a lot better through the rest of the season. They still get the Ravens, the Eagles, the Cowboys, the Texans, and the Chiefs during a five week stretch, so I would be shocked if they were to keep up even close to this current pace. So if you can trade New England's defense now for a usable piece in your starting lineup, I'm all for it. That's gonna do it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcasts, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, enjoy your weekend and best of luck in Week seven