896: Players to Target

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha JJ zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode eight hundred and ninety six of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. Over the last couple of years, I brought on the same guests for my yearly Players to Target and Players to Avoid episodes. Those guests being my friends Evan Silva and Rich Reebar. We're running it back again this year. Evan is the guest on today's episode, where we each talk through five players that we're targeting and fantasy drafts this year, and then Rich and I will discuss players to avoid next week. Now, some of you may wonder why this isn't just a Late Round Perspectives episode, and a simple answer is the one that I gave back during NFL Draft season. We're talking about a very specific topic today. Perspectives is for back and forth conversation. We kind of let that conversation dictate the topics of it. This is specifically all about players to target. But like I said, Evan is on today's episode, he doesn't need much of an introduction because ninety nine percent of you know who he is. But Evan Silva is one of the co founders of Established the Run dot com. He spent over a decade at Rotal World, where he became known for his crazy football knowledge through his weekly matchups calm. On today's episode, Evan and I run through some of our favorite values in fantasy drafts. Now before get into our discussion, just a reminder if you're thinking about getting the Late Round Draft Guide, but you haven't yet considered signing up on Underdog, because if you do, you can get that draft guide for absolutely free. Here's how it works. Just head to Underdog Fantasy dot com and sign up with promo code Late Round. Once you do that, and once you make a deposit, Underdog will send you an email with a link to the draft guide. That's it. It's a twenty five dollars value for absolutely free. You get to play best ball and have the draft guide. You can always get the guide overrun Lateround dot com as well, but it's much easier and cost effective to do it through Underdog. That's Underdog Fantasy dot Com promo code Late Round. Now. Here's my chat with Evansilva. All right, Evan, you've done this for I think this is your third year now where you either come on and we talk about players we're targeting, players were avoiding, you know, the drill. At this point, we'll just go back and forth. We each have five players. You sent me your five, so I picked five that are that are There's no overlap, right, So you kick it off. Give me a player that you're targeting because you like this guy versus average draft position.

00:02:41
Speaker 2: So it's Devin eight. I'm gonna start off with a guy who's you know, already high up in the ADP Devin eight Chan and I hope I'm pronouncing that correctly, because the pronunciation seems to change from day to day. However, that's not what matters here. So I remember, back in the heyday of rootal World, I was doing, you know, content with Chris Westling, primarily Greg Greg. Greg Rosenthal was overseeing us, and there was a player by the name of Chris Johnson who was drafted out of East Carolina. And Chris Johnson had he was a late first round pick. He had a really nice rookie season. He showed special capability, and Chris Westling just rip just pushed all of his chips in on Chris Johnson entering his second season, when Lendell White was still a big factor at that time theoretically. And I remember coming out with my first one point fifty, like right after the NFL Draft, entering Chris Johnson's second season, and I had Lendial White ranked ahead of Chris Johnson, and Chris Westling goes, dude, what are you doing. You need to change that. The rest of your rankings are really nice. You need to change that. And I did, and I got Chris Johnson, like I think it was like a second round pick. Maybe I bumped him up to that he ran for two thousand yards the next season. I think that this is a similar situation potentially between Raheem Mostert and Devin h Chan. Now no one's ranking Raheem Mostert ahead of Devin a Chan, But I think that the upside for Devin ah Chan is like generational, you know, legendary season. I think that he has that within in his range of potential outcomes. So the way that I am ranking Devin h Chan is I have him I think twelfth overall, and I think his ADP is somewhere in the second round, maybe I just I want my readers, my audience to get Devin h Chan on their teams, and so I'm being hyper aggressive with him. I don't think he's gonna run for two thousand yards like Chris Johnson did in his second year, but I do think he has fifteen hundred yard fifty catches, double digit tds, especially in that offense. He's such a great fit for that offense. They've been using him lining up in the slot a bit during training camp. Just you know, we really want to aim for big time difference making league winners, and Devin h Chan definitely has that in him, I believe.

00:05:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like to call out I think he's someone you know, if you're really into like a Jumier Gibbs or something, this is an arbitrage off of Gibbs in the way that you know, you're looking at efficiency over volume in a way with those with those kinds of backs. I also think we're just kind of approaching and maybe we were already there a landscape at running back where efficiency just matters more than it did in the past because there are so many split backfields out there where there's there's only three running backs, the big three that we confidently are saying these guys are going to bell cows. And even even with those big three, you know, you can talk up Braylan Allen, you can talk up Tyler Aljeer like like, it's still not even as big of a lock as it is with like Christian McCaffrey, right, and so, And not to say that I think, like I love Bejon and Breeze Hall, but I just I think efficiency does matter a little bit more than what people probably believe, just based on what we've told them over the last fifteen years of us doing this. You know, of us saying volume drives thegether, it does. But when you get a player like a Chan who you know, last year he had a thirty five percent total rush share, So that's based on all the rush attempts that team had. Right, if you bump up to a forty percent rush are in my projections this year, he's still in that like RB twelve ish range from a projection standpoint, that's a that's a number that a lot of players will get to. Like I'm talking like thirty plus running backs are gonna get to on a per game basis when you look at minimum eight games, if you look at last year, and so if he hits a fifty percent rush share in that offense, dude, it's it's over. I mean, the guy has a legit opportunity to be a top three running back pretty easily, even with regression coming with that yards per carry average. So I'm with you with a Chan. I think he's a really really solid pick right now. You know, I would not be you know, as much as I like a player like Isaiah Pacheco. You know, if you're a Kyron Williams fan and you you know, saw what he did last year and you're into I'm I'm I'm taking Devon a Chan over those guys. I'm not even thinking twice because I think the upside is just very very evident with him. I'm going to get to my next player, My my first player, I guess I'm gonna talk about Jonathan Brooks. So we'll go from one young back to another. Brooks is really interesting because obviously he has this ACL that he's coming off. You know, he suffered that in November of this past year. One thing that I'll say about the ACL, and obviously that's a huge reason why his ADP is where it's at you know, I think if if Jonathan Brooks were completely healthy, not only would he have been the consensus RB one uh you know, from from uh you know, I think he would have probably gone even higher in the draft. Arguably. I think some people have even said he might have been a first round pick. But if he had, if he was fully healthy, he'd probably be a top twenty ish running back in fantasy football right now. And so I think that's the first thing to get to to talk about. And if you look at historical examples I think the obvious go to example with his ACL would be Todd Gurley. Todd Gurley suffered his ACL in twenty fourteen, his final collegiate season in November. He comes back in twenty fifteen. Drafters were hesitant to go after him, and he comes out, he's a top ten fantasy back and he wins. He wins the offensive Rookie of the year, you know, during his rookie campaign in a bad offense. Mind you, that was the year Jeff Fisher was still there. It was before like the whole shift to a better offensive environment with Sean McVay, et cetera. So with Jonathan Brooks, though he scored a ninety four in my ZAP model, which without context might not make that much sense. That was right in line. Obviously the archetype is different, but it was right in line with Kenneth Walker and where he scored. And that's without Brooks having the benefit of the doubt of you know, being able to play multiple seasons in that Texas backfield because he was playing with Roshan Johnson and b John Robinson production based model, and Jonathan brook still looked that good in that model, So that's a big plus. Since twenty fourteen, we've had ten rookie running backs get drafted in the RB twenty to RB forty range with a prospect score of ninety three or above. Four of those tended up exceeding ADP expectation by three or more points per game, which is what I call a moderate breakout. Then you get Dave Canalis there, who's already hyped up the fact that they're going to run the ball a lot that he's talked about Jonathan Brooks's versatility as a receiver. And then also look what Dave Canal has did with Rashad White last year, who is an inferior talent compared to Jonathan Brooks. So I think that Brooks is worth the cost right now. I understand that he might not get off to a super hot start, but I think there's a very real chance that he's in RB one down the stretch this year.

00:09:49
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like that take, I think, and I think it's measured because you acknowledge that maybe he won't get off to a hot start. I recently did a podcast Doctor Chow and he scared me on Jonathan Brooks because I'm above ADP on Jonathan Brooks, and he was like, this is you know, one of the guys he does like the six score for you know, injury risk players, and you know, it scared me a little bit. But he also doesn't think like we think, like in terms of, well, you know, we we can wade out the waters for the first five weeks and this guy can be a difference maker in the second half of the season, which is kind of how Bryce Hall was. By the way, last year, also coming off in ACL you were absolutely right the way that it's not just Dave Canalis talking up talking about how they want to be a running team, Like they put that plan into action when they signed two hulking guards, some massive contracts and free agency. Damian Lewis and Robert Haunt this team, and then they traded up for Jonathan Brooks at number forty six. They wanted him, and you know, his competition is two Bahubbard is kind of like a you know, a pedestrian veteran, and Miles Sanders, who I'm not even sure he's going to be on the week one roster. That was a terrible contract that the previous regime gave him. I want to be high on Jonathan Brooks. I do think that that's the perfect way to term it, though we got to be a little patient. He can be a difference maker, you know, like by week six or certainly in the second half of the season they want to run the ball.

00:11:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think it's also important that you look at your own team build when you get a guy like Brooks, right, Like, if you go and you get an anchor running back early, I'm gonna be more inclined to just throw a dart at Brooks in the middle rounds and feel good about it. Whereas if I'm going complete zero RB and he's my RB one, I might not feel as comfortable. But yeah, I mean, I think overall though I'm definitely heavy on Jonathan Brooks this year, just because I think the upside is definitely there. Evan, give us a second player.

00:11:55
Speaker 2: I'm going to Nico Collins, And I mean, I think that everybody likes Nico Collins toun extent. I think that I like Nico Collins more than most people. And I experienced that when I put out my first or my revised Top one fifty rankings a couple of days ago, and I got a lot of pushback on having Nico Collins as my sixteenth overall player. People bring up Steph Diggs. Steph Diggs is going to be, I think, an asset to the Texans playing in the slot and Tank Dell, who was dynamic as a rookie. But I think that when you, you know, kind of like zoom out and look at the the complexion of the Texans passing offense, I think that Nico Collins is on like a pedestal and it's Stefan Diggs and Tank Dell competing for that number two receiver role. I don't even know who's going to work in two receiver sets between them. We know that Nico Collins is going to be working in two receiver sets and then Dalton Schultz is like, you know, the complimentary, you know, potential red zone target. But if you look at the history of the Shanahan offense, I know that you've been critical of this in the past, and I like, you wrote a great article about it, you know, a few years ago. But at the end of the day, that X receiver in the Shanahan style offense. And that's where Bobby Sloweck comes from. Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Brandon Ayuk. Now with Kyle Shanahan San Francisco, when a guy measures up in terms of talent to those guys, then we can talk about it. And that is that you know, it didn't work with Tory Smith, you know what I'm saying, Like under Gary, under Garry Kubiak, it comes from the same system. I think it can work with Nico Collins. He was second in the NFL in yards per route run last season. The Texans know he's awesome. In the game of three year, seventy three million dollar extension this offseason, he his numbers versus man coverage, according to Matt Harmon, were off the charts. And he's also so the Texans last year under Bobby Slowk's first year as the offensive coordinator. Detexans had some concerns about him as a post catch receiver. They want all their guys to be awesome after the catch. He was a stud on those deep crossing patterns. I think he's a true Alpha X receiver with a great, young, ascending quarterback in an offense that is going to throw the ball more. When you think about the investments they've made again extension of Nico Collins, added Stefan Diggs. They gave an extension to Dalton Schultz Tank Dell back after the injury. I'm going to be aggressive on Nico Collins. I don't care that people that is ADP's in the thirties or whatever. He's going to be a second round, locked in second round pick for me.

00:14:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've warmed up on Collins a lot over the last month. I was worried when I was first doing projections and looking at things because I do see regression coming to Like you know, you mentioned the yards parute run thing, Like chances are he's not going to repeat the yards parrout run rate that he had last year. Same with like a Brandon Aiyuk, right, But I think the difference is between last year and this year, as you noted, is the more pass heavy nature that we're probably gonna see from Houston and that sort of combating maybe a drop in efficiency. And then also you know people will say, oh, there's more competition with Stefan Diggs being there, But if you really lay it out, you can have three wide receivers in this offense get to a twenty percent plus target share and Nico Collins being even close to the twenty five percent mark if he does take a step forward because he was at like twenty two to twenty three percent last year, that still can exist, Like there's not an automatic dip in target share despite adding a guy like Stephan Diggs, because there's a lot of there were a lot of secondary guys in that offense last year that we're just getting targets. You know, Noah Brown had his time, and obviously you know that the tight ends would get would get targeted. A lot of that work, especially if Diggs is a guy who ends up playing in the slot, a lot a lot of that work would just end up going to Stefan Diggs, you know, instead of these tight ends and using them. That's part of the reason why I'm a little bit lower on like Dalton Schultz this year versus the mark because I think I think they're just going to be running eleven personnel. Let Diggs run the slot, and you know they also have you know, Tank Dell Can obviously you know, go inside out too. But it all kind of centers around this idea that Nico Collins has his role, which is what I think you're basically saying.

00:16:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that he's locked in, and then it's the other guys kind of competing for the complimentary targets. You mentioned that there is growth potential for the pass volume for the Texans. There's also growth potential for the touchdown rate of CJ Stroud, who only threw twenty three touchdown passes last year. We talked about this on the quarterback podcast that we did on Established a Run with you Jj. His touchdown rate was only four point five percent last year, and I think he could get into the five point five percent six percent range just throwing a ton of touchdowns. And Nico Collins is probably their best you know, he's certainly their biggest wide receiver.

00:16:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, he I mean, look was one of those players where if we look back and he has a six and a half percent touchdown right this year, we're not gonna be surprised at all. Right, Like, this is the way the offense is built right now, we should feel confident that they're gonna throw the ball a lot and be efficient in doing so. So all of that. The other thing too, me has contingent upside. Right of two guys, if digs or tank, they'll go down, We're gonna see an increase in a spike in target share. So that's also you know, in Nico Collins favor, I'm gonna move on. I'm gonna go to a sort of a boring pick here. I'm gonna talk about a tight end and we'll go with Pat Fryermouth. And the reason I want to bring him up is because you know, I'm gonna probably lean on going especially in home leagues, in uh, managed season long leagues, I'm probably gonna take the elite tight end discount this year and get a lot of Kelsey, get a lot of Mark Andrews, get some Trey McBride, and go that route pretty frequently. And then I don't mind either going with like a David n Joku or something or whoever ends up being the last tight end in that like next tier of players. I think that's fine as well. But you know, if you do get screwed and you're not able to get some of those tight ends, I think your last ditch effort of getting a potential plug and play tight end, you know, there are some that I don't mind late for sure, but I think Pat Fryermuth could be a nice floor ceiling guy for you where you know, maybe the ceiling isn't like tight top three tight end per se, but I think top six is in his range of outcomes and he should have a decently high floor. Main reason being, you look at this Pittsburgh offense. You know they're obviously going to be a run heavy team, and the way to combat that obviously would be a higher target share. And if you look at the weapons that they have right now, it's George Pickens, not a whole lot. You got good running backs out of the backfield that can catch passes. You know, Roman Wilson's already banged up, Calvin Austen has not shown us anything as a professional yet, and so it's really Pat Fryarmuth and I think that if you look at this Arthur Smith offense, you know, a lot of people are probably discounting Friarmouth because of how Arthur Smith used Kyle Pitts and the frustration that ensued. But if you look at how Arthur Smith uses tight ends in general in his offenses, it's really really favorable. I mean we're talking literally every team that he's had since becoming offensive coordinator in the league. He's been on, you know, his offensive coordinator in Tennessee, then he was head coach in Atlanta. His teams ranked eighth, fourth, fourth, fourth, and first and tight end target share during those five seasons, and we saw it last year obviously with John new Smith. I think the difference is that Pittsburgh doesn't have a that Pittsburgh guy's blocking tight ends and you know, has some tight end depth, but they don't have a John new Smith type player that can hypothetically take looks away from Pat Fryarmuth. So I think that if you're in those double digit rounds, you missed out on some of the other tight ends that I talked about. I don't think Pat Fryermuth is a bad consolation prize for.

00:19:48
Speaker 2: You, you know, That's interesting because I've been down on Pat Fryermuth pretty much for all the reasons that you laid out and just kind of considered him a guy that was going to almost fully depend on touchdowns because just I didn't think that the volume was going to be that. There are a lot of tight ends that just depend on touchdowns. Sure, but you know what Pat Firemouth is a touchdown score. I mean, go back and look at his touchdown touchdown rates at Penn State. He's going to be on the field the entire time for the reasons that you outlined. So I might be, you know, you might be changing my mind a little bit on Pat Firemuth. He's not a bad sleeper.

00:20:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the thing. It's not so much that because I think that we would all agree or anyone doing fantasy analysis. We don't feel very confident in late round tight ends this year, right, Like, no, you know, we're throwing darts at John news Smith and these guys who are like no offense, and we're like, do we feel that great about them? Compared to last year we were doing it with these rookie tight ends with like crazy upside like Sam Laporter or even at Dalton Kincaid, and so you know, we're looking at a tight end landscape where I think a lot of people sort of need a name that they might be able to go to in those double digit rounds. I think Friarmuth makes some sense. Now, there are gonna be some drafts where he goes a little bit higher, you know than a true sleeper, true late round guy. But I do think that there's enough of a uh, the situation is good enough for him to you know, match expectation and potentially get in that top six this year. I like it, all right, number three, let's go, let's hear it.

00:21:24
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Kyler Murray. And I think just let's just zoom out again and look at the complexion of the Arizona Cardinals roster. They have upgraded wide receiver. I think their offensive line is in a cent their defense is still a major problem. When Sean Murphy Bunting is projected as your top cornerback, you're probably gonna end up getting giving up a lot of points, especially in the NFC West. This is the first time that we've seen Kyler Murray at you know, relatively close to full strength, full health in years. And we also saw him that he was. You know, he came back in his eight games last year, in his first year under Drew Petsing, in a year where some people thought he wasn't eve gonna play the entire season, he played pretty darn well with nothing around him. He's got more around him this year. Second year of the offense. Nothing on the defensive side plays beneath, you know, a dome slash retractable roof the addition of Marvin Harrison, I mean Marvin Harrison. I know he's a rookie and everything else. He's the perfect fit for Kyler Murray, who is not necessarily an over the middle passer. Awesome when he's thrown to the perimeter. You think about DeAndre Hopkins' twenty twenty season with Kyler Murray when he went for fourteen hundred yards and one hundred and fifteen catches, Like Marvin Harrison probably won't reach that, but I think he can get fairly close. Trey McBride in his first full full season with Kyler Murray. Also, Michael Wilson, I think has a chance to take a pretty big step forward in his second season, showed some promising flashes as a third round pick. This coming off that major injury going into last season. Kyler Murray himself has admitted that he was not where he needed to be from an athletic standpoint. I think we get the full Kyler Murray experience this year, you know, an almost optimal fantasy environment. He's a really exciting fantasy pick this year.

00:23:26
Speaker 1: To me, Yeah, I think that there. You know, every year there seems to be like one or two very obvious quarterback picks, right like whether it was the Lamar Jackson MVP season or when Jalen Hurts broke out, there's always like one guy that's either in the middle or like in the late rounds that seems like the obvious go to player. Kyler Murray is that guy. This year, it just seems like the obvious top value pick at quarterback. My favorite stat with him is that he's hit four point nine or more rushing points per game every year of his career, So that's five seasons, he's hit five in four of those. In four of those five. Since twenty eleven, we've had thirty five quarterbacks hit three hundred pass attempts in a season while running to five or more points per game on the ground. Of those thirty five, every single one of them scored at least seventeen points seven points per game. Thirty one of them hit eighteen points per game. Twenty of the thirty five got to twenty points per game. So you're talking better than fifty to fifty odds with Murray to basically be you know, top six ish quarterback. And he's being drafted after a guy like Stroud and you know, close to a guy like Burrow and these pocket passers. To me, he just seems like the obvious pick with all of these improvements you know, surrounding him, and you know, you mentioned like the other players that are there. I think the Cardinals have done a really really good job of finding complimentary pieces too, right, like Michael Wilson works in the perimeter with Marvin Harrison Junior and Greg Dorch, who's seemingly doing well at camp and who's always been a pretty underrated slot guy. I think he'll win the slot job and be their slot dude. And then Trey McBride is obviously one of the best pass catching tight ends now in the league. You know, the offensive line is a little bit iffy, but they add Trey Benson, you know, during the in the draft to compliment James Connor from when he inevitably goes down with an injury. I mean, they're they're doing all of the things that they need to do to surround Kyler Murray with talent. So I'm I'm with it, man. I think Kyler Murray is the quintessential value quarterback this year. I think I think he's the dude. All right, next player on my list, I'm gonna go with Molikue Neighbors. I think there's a chance that Neighbors goes way way later in a lot of home league drafts and more casual drafts, just because he's a rookie. People don't like to lean in on rookies, even though rookies have proven year in and year out to be really good values in redraft leagues. You know, he has a more respectable ADP than I thought based on what I was looking at at Fantasy Pros. It's wide receiver twenty five, which I thought there was a chance he would be pasted like wide receiver thirty. But even so, I'm in terms of overall I'm twenty spots higher, and in terms of positional ADP, I'm like seven ish spots higher with my league neighbors. So I think that people don't realize fully that he was just as good of a prospect, at least in my eyes and in my model's eyes, as Marvin Harrison Junior. He actually had a slightly better prospect scorer in my model than Harrison did. He's one of thirteen wide receivers in that model to score above a ninety eight, which is obviously elite of those twelve who played a rookie season because obviously Marvin Harrison Junior, part of that group hasn't played yet. Five of them scored fourteen plus PPR points per game at Neighbors ADP. His ADP expectation is about twelve and a half points per game. So right away you're looking at a scenario where you got a bout of fifty to fifty chance of him getting to that fourteen mark of being a solid wide receiver too, and you know his expectation is sincerely lower than that. You know, the offense obviously will probably struggle this year. We have question mark about the quarterback. I know that you're someone who thinks that Drew Locke is going to start sooner rather than later or potentially start sooner rather than later in that offense, which I don't even think that's necessarily a bad thing for Neighbors, just because you know, there's gonna be probably a little bit more passing with the lack of rushing than from the quarterback position, and he might just be a better passer than what we've seen out of Daniel Jones. But I think regardless of all that, Neighbors could approach a twenty eight twenty nine percent target yere in this offense, like, like very realistically, given the alternatives that they have in that offense, he can play inside out. He's already dominating in camp. I want Molikue Neighbors on my fantasy squads this year because I think he's a special talent.

00:27:40
Speaker 2: I love this one so much. It's funny you mentioned that Milite Neighbors ADP is like wide receiver twenty five. Yeah, I think I have him as the nineteenth overall player. Yeah, I'm like huge on Moliite Neighbors. Yeah. Actually he should have showed up on my list, But I don't want to take too many early early round guys for the targets. But this one is easy. They use the number six overall pick on him. If you watch the what is it the front office hard knocks or whatever, like the Colts made a legit offer to try to go get him, and the Giants are like, na, no, We're taking Elite Neighbors. There were definitely people in the league that thought that Eliite Neighbors was a superior prospect to Marvin Harrison junior. Elite Neighbors is a player that you build your offense around. You think about Brian Dable and how he did that with Stefan Diggs when Stefan Diggs originally arrived in Buffalo. I don't care if it's Daniel Jones or Drew Locke, like they are going to be focused on getting the ball to Elite Neighbors in New York. And I really have an extreme level of confidence that Molite Neighbors is going to have a monster rookie year. I haven't looked at the op or they odds lately, but I mean, if he's anything like ten to one or longer, like I think you took a shot on that.

00:29:09
Speaker 1: You're still drafting Marvin Harrison over him, or do you have Neighbors ahead of Marvin Harrison.

00:29:13
Speaker 2: No, I have Harrison I think thirteen or fourteen. Yeah, a little bit ahead of elite neighbors, but you know it's close enough they have him in the same round.

00:29:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean that's the thing I think that Marvin Harrison Junior's situation and the other thing too, Like I ranked Marvin Harrison Junior ahead of eliite neighbors and my rookie draft rank and my rookie rankings. That's partially because in Dynasty you also have to play the market, and the market just favors Marvin Harrison Junior more than elakue neighbors, so you're gonna get a little bit more trade value out of it and such too. But I think as talents as players, it is it is not even a one A and one B situation. This is a they are both one. They are both that elite, they are that good of players.

00:29:57
Speaker 2: Yeah. We had actually we did a podcast early today with Matt Harmon and he said the same thing. He you know, analyzes them on a route per route basis, and he's like, if anyone was arguing for league neighbors over at Marvin Harrison Junior, they're not wrong.

00:30:13
Speaker 1: Yeah right right, Like there, this is a special class. I mean, there's a lot of really, really good wide receivers and we got to lean into that in redraft because not only have they been values historically, but this is a more talented class than we typically see. All right, I mean we got two more each, So give us your fourth player.

00:30:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, Chase Brown here. I think he's a really exciting second year player. He played under one hundred offensive snaps as a rookie. He never had more than twelve touches in a single game as a rookie. You know, he was like and I feel like because of that, because of one really small sample sized rookie, he has been and he had only one third down snap all season, and because of those factors, I believe that he has been sort of pigeonholed and stereotyped. Is just to change up back because that's what he was behind Joe Mixon. Joe Mixon is gone now, and Chase Brown at Illinois was a workhorse. He had three hundred and sixty five carries in twelve games as a senior at Illinois. He averaged twenty nine point six touches per game. He can catch the ball out of the backfield. He's not super small. He is two hundred and nine pounds. That's not you know, prototypical workhorse back, you know size, but it's not too far off of that. And his competition is Zach Moss, who I think is going to be a factor throughout the season. Probably has a higher floor theoretically than Chase Brown. Doesn't have remotely the upside that does Chase Chase Brown in home leagues right now, his ADP is like one twenty. It needs to be much higher than that. He this guy can actually be a true difference maker as an RB two with weekly RB one upside in a very good offense that runs the ball efficiently. I mean they're average averaging four point five yards per carry with Joe Mixon who has like zero explosiveness and Chase Brown has a ton of explosiveness. I think it was per next gen. Chase Brown, on one of his plays last year, had the fastest ball carrying time of any player. That is a massive jug of water.

00:32:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm drinking. The patrons call it MOLEI Cox. I just had to take a sip of it so I could when I respond, I could, you know.

00:32:40
Speaker 2: Have dehydrated exactly exactly, Stay hard, Stay hard. Yeah, but yeah, Chase Brown has you know, just astronomical upside compared to Zach Moss, and look, he may you know, kind of plateau as as a change of pace back this year. Suppose, you know, I think, but what I really think is that he's going to overtake Zach Moss and be the guy who gets you know, an Aaron Jones type who gets fifteen to seventeen touches per game, is really efficient with those touches, makes a difference in both the running pass games, and Zack Moss is sort of like a little bit better version of AJ Dillon.

00:33:20
Speaker 1: I've had a really weird journey with Chase Brown because as a prospect in my prospect guide and from a you know, analysis standpoint, he was a call out as a target, right, so I have you know, I was telling people to draft him, YadA, YadA, YadA. But then at the beginning of this offseason in January, I thought he was a dynasty cell because I was worried about how he performed. Year one was fine, but when you combine you know, the lack of volume and the fact that he was a Day three pick. How often do those kinds of players really pan out not very because I have a year two model that tells me that his odds of really exceed you know, succeeding, are not very high.

00:33:59
Speaker 2: Right.

00:33:59
Speaker 1: And then I did analysis in February March where in redraft leagues that year two model, when you're getting that late in the draft, like in the middle into the late rounds, is really irrelevant for running backs. It's not that big of a deal. It matters a lot more for early round guys. And then I was looking at the situation, I'm like, well, there's a chance they don't even go out and really do anything in the draft and get a running back, right, So I changed my tune back to being pro Chase Brown in like March, right, and then throughout the summer, I've just naturally just based on the market and based on how I thought this backfield might work out. I've had Zack Moss ranked ahead of Chase Brown. That changed. I have Chase Brown straight up ahead of Zach Moss when the market does not have that at all, like right now, Zack Moss is more in that like you know RB twenty six to twenty nine range, and then Chase Brown. You'll often find in that like RB thirty five range now underdog and in Best Ball drafts were starting to see Chase Brown's ADP rise a lot more. But he's my third highest exposed running back. Chase Brown is over there after four hundred and fifty drafts, like he you know, it's one of those things though, we're like I've said this on live streams. I said this on becoming a Best Ball bro But you know, I don't need to. I don't need to just like stick to my guns whenever I make a recommendation. You know, when I get new information, right, I'm getting new info, I want people to win. And my new info said, you know, the stuff that you thought mattered, it actually doesn't matter that much. And if you just look at this situation right now, you know, Chase Brown, Yeah, I.

00:35:27
Speaker 2: So basically like you're you're a flip flopper, like like John Carrit don't just don't run for president?

00:35:32
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, oh I Fortunately I'm not planning on running for president. But you know, with with with with Moss and Brown, I think it's very easy to throw them into these archetypes of you know, Moss is the early down bruiser, goal line guy, and Brown is the pass catcher. Uh, But the third down stuff did worry me a little bit that that they didn't really use him in that role that much last year. But where I think the upside is starting to show, and you sort of alluded to this, is what if he just becomes the like an earlier down guy, Like I don't think it's out of the question that he sees just as much work on the ground as Zach Moss this year, and they don't have a go to goal line like Zach Moss isn't necessarily the only dude getting the goal line work, Whereas I feel much more confident in Chase Brown having a role as a receiver than Zach Moss having a role as a receiver. And that's really what drives this stuff in fantasy is the receiving numbers and having that dual threat ability. So Chase Brown definitely someone that I think everyone should be targeting, especially like you said, man, if you look at if you look at more of the home leagues, or like you look at ESPN or Yahoo and like where they're gonna rank in those draft where he's gonna rank in those draft rooms, it's silly, like you're gonna be able to get him in with a very very late round pick. All right, my next guy, I'm gonna go back to the early rounds and go with Jalen Waddle. I think Waddle is one of those players where he's being drafted clos ish to his floor. You know, realistically, he's not a very sexy name because he's a wide receiver two on his own team, and people get scared off by that, especially after last year we saw like Devonte Smith sort of you know, underperformed versus expectation, and then you know, Waddle underperformed versus expectation. Realistically, though, if you look at the last ten years of data wide receiver twos by ADP who are team wide receiver twos, they actually outperformed the alternative they've done. They've been better than team wide receiver ones who were drafted as wide receiver twos. It doesn't mean that you should go seek them out. It's more so don't be afraid of them, you know. Overall, but Waddle has ranked fifteenth, eleventh, and twenty first and PPR points per game over his three year career. His target share per game has never been below twenty percent. It was twenty three percent last year. Last year he couldn't stay healthy, and that's why a lot of people are frustrated by his performance and his fantasy output. But if you look at him on a per route basis, ninety fourth percentile in yards per route run, ninety second percentile on targets per uwa run. We know this offense. You know, while there might be some touchdown regression, they might not score as many touchdowns as they did last year, still going to probably be a top tennish offense in the league, just based on personnel and Mike McDaniel being a really good offensive mind. And so you know, I just think Waddle not only that, but Waddle has contingent upside too. If Tyreek Hill goes down, Jalen Wattle is going to see a thirty percent target here a week in and week out in that offense, which would be yeah, he would be money, right, So I think I think Waddle is being drafted you know, maybe around his projection. That's fine, but there is that contingent upside of what if Tyreek Hill either takes a step back for whatever reason, which I don't anticipate happening, or just gets hurt and then all of a sudden Jalen Wattle is a freak of a fantasy asset.

00:38:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like this one. You know, Tyreek Hill is thirty and a half years old also, and obviously he showed zero signs of decline last year and he probably is gonna have another monster season. I definitely think he belongs as a top three overall pick. But he is thirty and a half years old, and you know, we player starts to decline at that age. The Dolphins obviously believe that Jalen Waddle is, you know, a star or a future start. Jalen Waddle, by the way, it's twenty five, you know, more than a half decade younger than Tyreek Hill because the Dolphins gave him a really big extension. You're right, the contingent value. I mean, Jalen Waddle becomes a league winner if something happens to Tyreek Hill. And you know, even if Tyreek Hill stays healthy for the entire season, Jalen Waddle can cook as long as he stays healthy. Mike McDaniel runs this offense through Tyreek Hill and Jalen Wattle, and I think he will obviously Devon ah Chan as well, but from a wide receiver from a pass catching standpoint, like they didn't even throw it to Durham smythe last year. People are out here trying to make John new Smith happen. I even am to an extent, I just took him in like the seventeenth round of an FFPC best ball, but from a pass catching standpoint. If we're being real with ourselves, it's Tyreek Kill and Jalen Waddle and you know, a sprinkle of eight chan. But he's gonna have a big target share regardless. And if something happens to Tyreek monster target share.

00:40:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, the John new Smith thing is like just the perfect example again of how bad the tight end landscape is late because like I think he's a great real fit and I think I can see the vision for John who in that offense, right, and I think that you know, obviously he's a better player than Durham smythe But yeah, like at the end of the day, are we gonna be shocked if he has a twelve percent target share this year? No, not at all, Like that's that's probably a projection for Smith at the end of the day. And so you know, I think that that obviously leads leads us to those two wide receivers, and Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle are probably gonna see over half of the team's targets this season if they're healthy. All Right, we got one more from you.

00:41:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, And this one goes a little bit later because Dantavian Wicks ADP is somewhere close to one sixty five or one seventy on Fantasy Pros, and I have him inside the top one hundred, which is very aggressive. But it's a player that I believe in, and I think it's a player that Matt Lafleur, the Packers head coach, believes in, because he's repeatedly compared Danavion Wicks to DeVante Adams, who, of course is like, you know, borderline hall of famer, you know, probably will be a Hall of Famer the problem, and I believe I also believe in the the as a unit, the Packers passing offense. I think Jordan Love is the real deal. He was, you know, he didn't look like it, I know in the first six games, but he had the number one Cuba QBR over the final ten games of last season. The Packers obviously believe in him. They gave him just a massive contract extension. The issue here is that there are so many, you know, theoretical mouths to feel in Green Bay. They've got five receivers on down to bo Melton that they have confidence in playing. They have two tight ends assuming that Tucker Kraft is going to be healthy that they can play, so they can use a lot of rotation stuff. They can use a lot of different personnel packages and only have two receivers on the field. But I think at the end of the day, what they're going to settle on and it might not happen, you know, with definition before Week four, Week five, Week six is Jalen Reid in the slot, Christian Watson as the number four situational vertical threat, Dantevion Wicks as the Z receiver, and Romeo Dobbs as the X receiver who doesn't get a ton of targets but commands attention, runs good routes, et cetera, et cetera. But in terms of playing time, that's kind of how I'm projecting it right now. Dante to be the flanker in this offense, and at the cost of like not even inside the top one fifty, I think he's an easy sell as like a late round sleeper.

00:43:14
Speaker 1: Yeah. The thing too with Green Bay is a lot of people are gonna be worried about that rotation, and I think there's reason to be worried about it in a season long format. But for the guys that get drafted earlier, like a Jaden Reid for instance, who I adore as a player and I love them as a prospect, I think that those players like him or Christian Watson are your best ball bets right like, because there's gonna be the roller coaster if they're all healthy, there's probably gonna be somewhat of a roller coaster in terms of how they perform. But when you're talking late round dart throws, because I have wis as a dart throw and the draft guide as well, and when you're talking about late round dart throws, you can take on that risk, it doesn't matter nearly as much. And then on top of that, what if what you're saying does come to fruition and he is more of an every down player than what's being projected right now after having a yards perrou run rate, after being a Day three pick, but having a yards PERU run rate above two last year, which is nice.

00:44:12
Speaker 2: Above two nice. I thought it was like one point nine seven. I think it was the best among the top four last year.

00:44:18
Speaker 1: It was, it was so Jayden depends, I guess, depending on your source because because there might be different routes run numbers out there. But him and Jayden Reid were right next to each other. Bo Meltons was really good last year too, but obviously not a rookie. But you know, Jayden Reid and him both have profiles that suggest that they could be very very good players, right, like like.

00:44:37
Speaker 2: Play different roles. Is more of like a sort of a little souped up Curtis Samuel.

00:44:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, they could use him in a debo role if they wanted to, like realistically, right, Whereas D'antavian Wicks is a more prototypical perimeter receiver who you know, could could could warrant and see a lot of volume in the offense of everything sort of hits. And you know, I don't mind Romeo Dobbs, like I think he's a fine player, but when we're talking about like game changing, you know, difference making upside in fantasy football, it seems like that would just lean Wicks because we've just seen a larger sample of Dobbs, you know, like we've seen him in stretches even in the playoffs last year, like he was really really good, and he's he's given us really strong production. But if we're if we're betting on a player to be like a superstar or a very very good weekend and week out starter, I think it would probably be Wis Between those two, I think if costa side, let me ask you this costa side. I've asked this too. I asked this to Dave Klugy last week when he brought up the Packers wide receivers, But costa side, which wide receiver would you want on your fantasy team?

00:45:44
Speaker 2: Most?

00:45:44
Speaker 1: Would it be Jaden Reid?

00:45:46
Speaker 2: Yeah? Probably, I mean yeah, I would say so. I mean I think that he's he's got a lot of playmaking ability. He's probably the slight favorite for targets, and we saw what he did last season. I would lean in his direction. But I do think it's closer than adp suggests right now.

00:46:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's the key. And like I said, in like best Ball, like on Underdog, I think Reid is still fine at like the five to six turn and then Watson and the whatever it's just that Wix is a better value right than those players. But getting exposed to the Packers offense in any way, shape or form, to me is a good idea because that offense has a chance to be really, really good this year. And then again we're going back to the contingent upside thing. It's nice when there are so many different pieces that could get I mean, obviously I'm not hoping that these guys get hurt, but it's nice for the player that we're analyzing, you know, for the upside to really hit when there's more than one out. You know, there's a lot of wide receivers in the league, you know, like Jayalen Waddell, who we just talked about. The way that he really hits his upside is like the insane upside is if Tyreek Hill, that one singular player gets hurt, but if Romeo Dobbs or Christian Watson or eve Jaden Reed who doesn't play a similar position, but will force the three of them to then be on the field at the same time if any of them get hurt. D'antavian Wicks sees an eighty percent snap count a snap rate, right, and all of a Sudden is a potential wide receiver two, wide receiver three on your fantasy team, so I think he's an obvious late round pick this year. Is I got one more for you guys. We're gonna go with Taj Spears as the last call out for these players to target second year pass catcher. Pass catching running backs who go in the middle rounds who are part of ambiguous backfields are always always good bets, and Taj Spears I think as a really underrated pass catching profile. Last year he had a fourteen point eight percent target share per game rate okay, since twenty eleven among rookie running backs that trailed only Christian McCaffrey, Sakuon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Bijon Robinson, and Tarik Cohen. Those the only five since twenty eleven and who had a better target chair per game rate as a rookie than Taj Spears. Someone would say, or someone might say, oh, Tie Cohen's on that list. Obviously, that's the path that Tajy Spears is gonna go down. Tarik Cohen was the RB fifteen his second year in the league. Like he was, he was a very dynamic and good pass catcher. And he's not the same kind of player as Taj Spears either. He's not He's not a complete duplicate. But my point is is that if that's the outcome, that's not a bad outcome at all for Spears. I'm really bullish on the Titans offense in general. I think the offensive line should be better, even if it's just the coaching staff that makes it better. Brian Callahan steps in. He was a really pass heavy coordinator in Cincinnati, even without Joe Burrow. Like this isn't even a you know, I know that he wasn't necessarily doing everything for the offense and calling plays all the time, but you know, he was a pass heavy and pass friendly coordinator even before the season that Joe Burrow got there, like he was the the OC and twenty nineteen before Burrow became a Bengals. So I'm very bullish on how pass heavy this Titans offense might be. And if you look at all their moves this offseason, they get Calvin Ridley, you know, instead of getting a bruising running back like like everyone thought they would that would compliment Tajy Spears, like going out and getting like a Zach Moss or something. They go out and they get Tony Pollard, who's more of a an interchangeable piece. That's the way that they've been describing that backfield, more of an interchangeable piece of Spears. He can catch passes out of the backfield. They go get, they get Tyler Boyd demand the slot. I mean, they're doing everything that points to them being a more pass heavy offense, and I think that's actually a big It's a good thing because the team will probably score more points because passing is more efficient than rushing. But also Taj Spears is a player who could benefit from that because Spears is a pass catching back. He proved that last season. So I think Spears is one of the best middle round running back picks on the board right now.

00:49:58
Speaker 2: So I have been on Tony Pollard as the guy who I think will emerge as like the fifty five forty five favorite, But man, you make a you make a pretty good case. I think I need to move up Taj Spears number one. They just lost DeAndre Hopkins for who knows how long you know, and he you know, that's going to leave some targets behind number one. And obviously they played different positions, but Taja. Taj Spears had fifty two catches. Yeah, last year as a rookie in college. This dude averaged almost seven yards per carry and was a factor all four years at Tulane. And it's not, you know, it's I think it's a coin flip between Tony Pollard exactly and Taj Speared. Who was going to Taja Spears? Who is going to be I end up being the you know, the semi lead back. And Brian Callahan in an interview early in the offseason, I think it was at the Coaches Breakfast, was talking about how, yes, we view them as interchangeable, but we think that one of them will emerge as the sort of lead back. And I don't know who that's going to be. I think it's going to be Tony Pollard, but it could just as easily be Taj Spears. And you have always done a good job of highlighting, Yo, Let's attack these ambiguous backfields. Let's not shy away from them. Let's attack these because the ambiguity. Ambiguity makes them cheaper to us. And if we can hit on one of those guys, we're getting a floor, right, We're getting a floor from taij Spears, He's probably gonna get a baseline of forty catches and you know, one hundred and ten or one hundred carries. Okay, so we're getting a floor. If something happens to Tony Power, which by the way, has things have happened to Tony Power before, or Taiji Spears just beats him out, then we you know, we have a big time back on our hands.

00:51:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent. And look, this isn't even an anti Tony Pollard take. If I'm being honest with you, I've I've had them pretty close to back to back throughout my throughout the off season and my rankings. And the only reason why I'm I've been calling Spears out so much is because throughout the offseason he's been the cheaper back of the two. When when I see them as what the what the Tennessee coaching staff has said, you know, they see him as interchangeable, one of them might emerge. And if one of them emerges, you know, I will say I'm gonna bet more, you know, just based on history and just based on what we've seen, you know, market trend wise and all of that. On the middle round second year player, the emerging talent versus the what is the year six Tony Pollard, who is coming off you know, a season where people overstated how bad it was, but a season that was not necessarily Tony Pollard esque, right, And so that's that's the main reason why I think, you know, Spears is at least the better value between the two. But a lot of the argument that we're making for Spears you can make for Tony Pollard, like the ambiguous backfield, you know, the the offense being better all that. So if Pollard ends up falling in your draft, I would still go after Pollard. This is more so in most drafts. You're gonna get Spears a little bit later. But yeah, that does it. Those are the ten players that we're targeting this year. Evan, as usual, thank you so much for your time. For anyone not following Evan in his work, check him out on Twitter at Evansilva and check out Established the Run at Establish the Run. I'm on Twitter at Late Round QB, and make sure checking out the Late Round Draft Guide, which you can find on lateround dot com. And you can take advantage of that underdog promo too. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back later this week with a fresh episode of Late Round Perspectives.