1031: 15 Transactions for Week 6

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zappertha j J zacher.

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Speaker 2: Reefon what's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode ten thirty one of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code Late Round to play free for your share of millions.

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Speaker 2: The Crown is yours.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one hundred gambler in New York call eight seven to seven and eight hope n Why in Connecticut called eighty eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven eighteen plus the most States. Eligibility supply ends December thirty first Sea terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions. Let's get to these fifteen transactions, add Michael Carter. So when I did this fifteen transaction show last week, we had no idea that Trey Benson was about to go on IR. We barely knew that he was hurt. We just knew he was a little.

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Speaker 2: Bit banged up now.

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Speaker 1: Fortunately, on the Sleepers episode last week, I talked about the Cardinals backfield. I talked about liking Michael Carter more than a Mari de Marcado, and I discussed it with late round fantasy football patrons as well. So hopefully anyone consuming my content already has Michael Carter, but regardless if you don't, he's probably the number one priority this week off the waiver wire. Now, I'll be honest that Arizona backfield split, it could have gotten in a different direction. In situations like that, we don't know exactly what's gonna happen.

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Speaker 2: I'm not on the Arizona Cardinals coaching staff.

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Speaker 1: I'm just using context clues to try to get us the best answer, and that answer in Week five was Michael Carter. He played twenty more snaps than a Mari de Marcado, and despite de Marcado being that third down back, Carter still ran eight more routes. Michael Carter ended that game with a seventy two percent running back rush share in a seventeen percent target share. Those are kind of awesome numbers. And then, as we know, Amaro de Marcado had that costly.

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Speaker 2: Fumble in the game.

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Speaker 1: That only makes me feel more bullish about Michael Carter's workload moving forward. Trey Benson's injury it's supposed to sideline him for four to six weeks, we realistically could get another month of solid Michael Carter production by Trey McBride. So let's stick with the Cardinals here and let's shift our focus to Trey McBride. He's basically doing what he did last year, except just a little bit worse. And twenty twenty four is target share per game rate twenty nine point nine percent. This year it's closer to twenty seven percent. Last year, he averaged fifteen point nine expected Fantasy points per game. That's in PPR formats, and that's according to PFF's model. This year he's at thirteen point nine. But this season, McBride's playing further below expectation. He's averaging twelve and a half peep Zer points per game despite getting eight point four targets per contest. And as I just said, he has twelve and a half PPR points per game. He should be closer to fourteen just based on where he's seeing his targets. There might be a frustrated trademcbride.

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Speaker 2: Manager out there.

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Speaker 1: I know that some people in the late round Fantasy Football discord they've been kind of frustrated with them, and maybe this is just what he is this season. He's just a high floor, low ceiling tight end. But I do think he's more by than sell. The Cardinals have a favorable rest of seasons schedule for tight ends. He's playing below expectation, like I said, and over the last few weeks, only Jake Ferguson is averaging more expected Fantasy points per game than Trey McBride is. That's at the tight end position. And it doesn't hurt that Marvin Harrison Junior has not taken that next step this season. He's a twenty percent target chair. This is admittedly a transaction that I wouldn't go nuts over, Like, definitely don't pay draft day costs to get Trey McBride. But if you want to little bit more stability at the tight end position, and you know the manager in your league is a little bit frustrated with his production.

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Speaker 2: Then why not send an offer.

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Speaker 1: And Kendre Miller so I talked about Kendre Miller a couple times on last week's show, and in week five we saw his snapshare get even better. His snapshare was thirty nine percent. It was thirty two percent in week four, and that resulted in him hitting a season high fifty five point six percent running back rush share. Now, the issue with Kendra Miller, and I talked about this last week, is going to be his pass catching. Alvin Kamara is still in that backfield. We've yet to see Miller get to a five percent target share in a game this year, and his rot participation rates have all been below thirty percent. And then the other obvious thing here is that Kendre Miller is going to work better in positive game scripts. In New Orleans, They're not going to see many positive game scripts, and that offense is not very good. They were fine against the Giants this past weekend. Fine, but any poor game script is going to lead to more Alvin Kamara, not Kendre Miller. According to Fantasy Life data, Kamara has played about eighty percent of the team's long down in distant snaps this year. So it's fine to have Kendre Miller rostered. It's a really weak waiver wire week. If he's still out there, go ahead and Adam workloads can shift, injuries can happen, trades can happen, But at this moment, he's more like a random bye week fill in than a true top thirty running back.

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Speaker 2: Sell Jamar Chase.

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Speaker 1: So the Bengals offense was able to move the ball a little bit better against the Lions this past weekend. I talked about that with James Coe on last week's Late Round Perspectives episode. It was good to see that come to fruition. But guys, this Cincinnati offense is still not very good. That Detroit defense is pretty banged up, and it still took garbage time for the Bengals to compile fantasy production. Jamar Chase is the one who benefited most. He scored twenty nine PPR points. He had a twenty five five percent target share, And trust me, guys, this transaction has nothing to do with Jamar Chase the player. He's obviously a fantastic player, one of the best in the league, if not the best. I'm just not convinced he's back from a fantasy perspective entering the week. I talked about this on last week's ten Trends episode. Entering the week, Chase had played eight games with Jake Browning under center. He averaged eleven point two PPR points per game in those contests. Outside of those games, since the start of twenty twenty three, Chase was at twenty two PPR points per game. He was a totally different wide receiver in Fantasy football with and without Jake Browning, which is not that surprising, but those splits are pretty glaring. Now that twenty nine point outing is gonna help that average, but we're still looking at a player, an unbelievably talented player who's likely going to see some valleys with his peaks this year. And honestly, the only reason why I'm calling out Jamar Chase is because of rest of season rankings. Entering Week five, Fantasy Pros rankers, they were still listing Chase as a top ten player in Fantasy football, ahead of players like James Cook, ahead of C. D. Lamb, ahead of Devon A. Chan I was well below the market, even knowing that he could have a great Week five performance. And he had that great Week five performance, So what's gonna happen to his rest of season ranking? It's more than likely gonna rise, but I'm still concerned the Bengals in that spot. Against the Lions, they still finished outside the top twenty in total yards and EPA per play. They were bottom half in the league and rushing success rate. They allowed a top five pressure rate. This offense is probably not gonna be very good as long as Jake Browning is under center.

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Speaker 2: Like I could sit on this podcast and.

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Speaker 1: Easily call out T Higgins, but no one's buying t Higgins right now given the rankings that I'm seeing, though, people might be buying Jamar Chase still, and if you can get them for a price of a top ten player, I would do that. At Darnell Mooney, It's been a pretty weird season for Darnell Mooney. He was banged up throughout training camp and in the preseason, and then he wasn't able to find the field until Week two against the Vikings. But if you remember that game, the Falcons had a pretty run heavy script because they were leading, so we only had four targets, but he had a nineteen percent target.

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Speaker 2: Share in that game.

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Speaker 1: And then in Week three the Falcons couldn't do anything offensively against the Panthers, Mooney still saw eleven targets in a twenty seven percent target share, and then in Week four, the last time we saw Atlanta, Mooney got hurt again. But the team seems optimistic that he's gonna be able to play this weekend. And given what I just said, if we're just being totally objective here, we haven't really seen a normal situation for Darnell Mooney this year, and yet his fantasy managers have been dropping him. He's only rostered in thirty three percent of Yahoo leagues right now. Last season, he was one of the best deep ball players in the NFL. He only trailed George Pickens, DK Metcalf and Justin Jefferson in twenty plus air yard catches. He had a twenty one percent target chair in that Falcons offense. There's really no reason that he should be sitting on the waiver wire in twelve team leagues. Atlanta has a top ten rest of season schedule for wide receivers according to my ad Justin Fantasy points allowed numbers two. So you should be adding Darnell Mooney if he's out there. Ad Kendrick Bourne, I have no idea at the time of this recording how healthy Ricky Pierson and Juwan Jennings are. But what I do know is that Kendrick Bourne had a great Week five. He tied for the team lead and target chair against the Rams. He ended up catching ten of eleven targets for one hundred and forty two yards. I think if one of Jennings or pearsall don't go this weekend, Kendrick Bourne is probably going to operate as a number two receiver. He's gonna be rewarded for how he performed on Thursday night. You would think it seems like that connection with Mac Jones was very, very real, But I will say he technically did run fewer routes than DeMarcus Robinson. But I'm still adding Kendrick Bourne given that performance. Add Jake Toanjis now, since we're talking about the forty nine ers, we might as well get this out of the way too. Jake Toanjas is a reasonable streamer for Week six. Kyle Shanahan said it was a long shot for George Kittle to have his practice window opened before Week six, so it's likely going to be Toanjis as the primary pass catching tight end for the forty nine ers. He finished Week five with a good twenty two point nine percent target share. He's found the end zone in back to back games, and in those two games he scored fourteen point eight and seventeen point one PPR points. The forty nine Ers to the Buccaneers this weekend too. Tampa Bay ranks as a top five opponent for tight ends by justin fantasy points allowed so far this year, so Toanjas is a very reason nile streamer. Now, for the record, I wouldn't be adding him over Mason Taylor or Theo Johnson. I just talked about Taylor and Johnson last week. They have more season long upside, but for this week you could add Tanjas by Juwan Jennings. This fifteen transaction show is sponsored by the San Francisco forty nine Ers. Now, in all seriousness, I wrote this in the newsletter, but I said in fantasy football, sometimes absence doesn't make the heart grow fonder. Sometimes absence makes the heart forget the person even exists. And that's what I feel like with Jawan Jennings right now. He was a pretty high draft selection earlier in the summer, before this holdout happened, and before that calf injury happened. Whether that was an injury or not. Then it was a shoulder injury, and now it's his ankle and ribs.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: I know Jennings plays a very physical style of ball, but even by his standards, he's been beat up this year. This transaction, it's kind like the Darnell Mooney transaction. We really haven't seen much normalcy from Jennings in twenty twenty five, but we've seen these glimpses of him being a very usable fantasy asset. Back in Week two, the only game where he was moderately healthy, and he ran a round on at least eighty percent of San Francisco's dropbacks. He finished the game with nineteen point nine PPR points in a twenty six percent target share. There's obviously nothing wrong with that at all, And right now you could probably take someone on your bench and trade them for Juwan Jennings, and over their next two games, San Francisco gets the Buccaneers and the Falcons. Those are two strong matchups and they have a strong rest of season schedule for wide receivers according to justin Fantasy points allowed numbers, So why not take a chance on Juwan Jennings and just cross your fingers that he plays this weekend, and if he doesn't play this weekend, he could still have decent value rest of season. It feels like Juwan Jennings, which just one decent game could totally flip perception, could totally flip this script because there hasn't really been a normal game for him this season. Actually, the only normal game that he's played in he was great ad Isaac Teslaw. So Khalif Raymond suffered a neck injury in the first quarter of Detroit's game against Cincinnati in Week five, and that opened the door for Isaac Teslaw to get some run in that line's offense. According to PFF eighta, Tesla had a fifty four percent route chare, which was the highest of his season. Now, he only saw one target, but of course, in typical Isaac Teslaw fashion, he scored on it.

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Speaker 2: Raymond could miss Week six, that would make.

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Speaker 1: Tesla a deeper sleeper and if he shows out, he can maybe carve out a larger role in this offense. It's one of the best offenses in football, and let's be honest, he's one injury away from having an even bigger role than that. So I don't think he's a bad ad this week because the waiver wire is pretty weak. Sell Tony Pollard. Tony Pollard had his best Fantasy total of the season on Sunday, fourteen point eight PPR points. He's now scored thirteen point nine, ten point six and fourteen point eight PPR points over his last three games. During his first two, he didn't hit double digits. We know this Titans offense, though, isn't very good. It's likely gonna cap pollard ceiling, but Tajy Spears being back, he's gonna cap his ceiling two now. Spears only played twenty six percent of Tennessee snaps on Sunday, but there's a chance that they're just easing him back in. After all, last season, when him and Pollard were both healthy, Tajay Spears' snapshare hovered around the forty percent range, and Spears's presence has already impacted Pollard, even though the bottom line didn't show that. Pollard played a season low seventy two percent snapshare against the Cardinals this past weekend. So thanks to that usable performance, you might have an opportunity right now to sell Tony Pollard, and I would do that if I could add Ryan Flanoy. So I spent about twenty minutes on YouTube trying to figure out how to pronounce this dude's last name. I remember prospecting him when he came out, but when I'm prospecting players, I'm not always listening to how you pronounce their last names. And I haven't had to talk about him on this podcast, or really on any podcast. Some people say floor Noy, but then others say Flinoy, and I kind of like that second pronunciation more, and it's kind of how he sounded like he said it.

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna save Flanoy. Okay, we good, good, And I'm.

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Speaker 1: Talking about the wide receiver for the Dallas Cowboys, the wide receiver who went off this past week against the Jets with Ceedee lamb out. In Week five, we saw kind of a breakout game from Ryan Flanoy. He had a thirty two percent target share. His previous career high was only nine percent. He ended up catching six of nine passes for one hundred and fourteen yards. Now, according to PFF data, when you're looking at routes, run and rout participation rate, Jalen Tolbert was still the number two wide receiver for the Cowboys. With that being said, Tolbert's been pretty mid. This is Flanoy's first game of the year with a roundeshare above forty percent, and he went nuts and that opportunity. It was largely driven by the fact that Cavante Turpin was out. Remember I talked about Jalen Tolbert as a sleeper this past week. Right process, wrong result, Ceedee Lamb may not be back until week seven or later.

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Speaker 2: In Dallas.

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Speaker 1: This week they get a fine matchup against the Panthers, so Flinoy might work as a deeper play.

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Speaker 2: By Tetoa McMillan.

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Speaker 1: Wide receivers are scoring a touchdown this year on about every one hundred and fifty three receiving yards. Teteroa McMillan has three hundred and fifty one yards. He still hasn't found the end zone. Now, I'm fully aware that I've talked about buying Tetroh McMillan in the past, but McMillan's a regression candidate who needs to be called out. He's seen no fewer than eight targets in a single game this year. His target share is over twenty five percent according to PFS Expected Fantasy Points Model, Based on where mc millan is seeing his looks, he should have about fifteen point two Ppero points per game. Instead, he's at eleven point eight. His expected touchdown total is two and a half. He scored zero Carolina gets Dallas this week. This could be the last chance that you can buy low on McMillan.

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Speaker 2: Add Michael Mayer. We've got a lot.

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Speaker 1: Of tight end potential out there. There's Theo Johnson, there's Mason Taylor, but don't sleep on Michael Mayer. Brock Bauers has been dealing with his knee injury. He's been described as week to week. Mayer didn't play last week because of a concussion, but if he's back for week six, he could have some usability. He'd likely step in and play a legit role in this Raiders offense, and it's one that doesn't have these like locked in surefire weapons. We should find out soon if Michael Mayor clears concussion protocol, and if he does, he's a legit streamer here in week six. And if this brock Bauers injury lingers he could be worthwhile beyond that too. Add Hassan Haskins and Kamani Videll. Amarion Hampton is efficient on IR He's gonna miss at least the next four weeks. Sometimes I hate fantasy football. Hassan Haskins and Kamani Videll are next up for the Chargers with Naji Harris out of the picture. Haskins has played as Hampton's backup. He was the one who saw more immediate snaps when Hampton's injury occurred on Sunday, So because of that, you should probably spend a little bit more of your free agent budget on Haskins versus Videll. But I think this is just going to be a committee until Hampton returns, which hopefully is closer to that four week mark than longer. I do think there's some chance we get some production here though. This weekend, the Chargers get Miami. The Dolphins just let ric o'dowdell run all over them. Then it's Indianapolis, which is a below average matchup for running backs by jesseph points allowed, than Minnesota, who's been about average, and then Tennessee, which is a great matchup. And keep an eye on any movement the Chargers make too. They're gonna have to add a running back to that room. But for now, it's Haskins and then Invitel just slightly below him, just slightly add the Las Vegas Raiders defense. The Raiders get the Titans this week. Tennessee has been an awesome opponent for opposing defenses. They have a lot of top twelve performance every week this season, including three top six ones. The Raiders are at home and I triple check that, and they're five and a half point favorites in a game with a forty one and a half point total. That means Tennessee has an implied total that's well below twenty points. And Tennessee's allowed the fifth highest pressure rate in the league this year, So I think process wise, Vegas, they might not be a great defense, but they do make sense as a streamer.

00:19:50
Speaker 2: That's it for today's show, though, Thanks all of you for listening.

00:19:52
Speaker 1: If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are busterting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and defer it to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening, everyone, greatly appreciate you.

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Speaker 1: I'll talk to you tomorrow with the Weekly ten Trends episode.