820: Week 7 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Lady Podcast with your host JJ zacher rethas j.

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Speaker 2: Jake zacher Reason.

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Speaker 1: What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Eson in this episode eight hundred and twenty of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. I was happy with last week's Sleeper Show results. On the negative side of things, Baker Mayfield and Gardner Minshew they were not good streamers. Kenneth Gainwell didn't exactly get the game script that I was hoping for. Dawson Knox and Logan Thomas they weren't very good streaming options either, and some of the deeper wide receiver plays they didn't pan out. Now, with all that being said, Sam Howe was a viable option. Brandon Cooks, Josh Downs, Robert Woods, Curtis, Samuel Savon, Ackman, and Chuba Hubbard all scored touchdowns, and none of the defensive streamers sank you either. The Vikings in particular were a really good choice. Overall, pretty decent week for a show like this. Hopefully things continue this week because it's a really rough one with so many buys.

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Speaker 2: Let's get to it.

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Speaker 1: This first tier of players is rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, so they're out there in the majority of leagues.

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Speaker 2: As usual. I'm gonna kick things off.

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Speaker 1: With some quarterback options, but I have to admit that the quarterback streamers this week they're not great, at least on paper. I'm gonna start with Josh Dobbs. Dobbs get Seattle this week, and the Seahawks have been the eighth best matchup for quarterbacks this year, and ad justin fantasy points allowed. Dobbs hasn't been great over his last two, but at least in Week six we saw some of that rushing juice return. He's now rushed for forty or more yards in four of his last five games. That's essentially an extra passing touchdown in fantasy production. If we see a negative game script hit, we might get more scrambling from Josh Dobbs, and that's really what we want because the Cardinals aren't projected from many points this week. Now, there's also Derek Carr. He's another guy who works if you're in a pinch, but I'm not overly excited about him. Carr plays on Thursday night, which probably isn't a plus, and he gets a pretty average matchup against the Jacks. The over under in that game is currently said at just thirty nine and a half points, and Trevor Lawrence isn't one hundred percent healthy. That gives us less of a chance of a true back and forth. Even still, like I talked about on the ten Trends episode, Carr does have some favorable regression coming his way.

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Speaker 2: He's thrown about three fewer.

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Speaker 1: Touchdowns this year than he should have based on his yardage total and his two and a half percent touchdown rate.

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Speaker 2: That's a career low. I think he's more of.

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Speaker 1: A mid range QB two this week, but that might be good enough for you because it's a rough week in general now, Moving on a running back, it's an absolute disaster. Honestly though, When the position is as messy as it is right now, it gives me an opportunity to pick off some potential sleepers. One guy you might be able to lean on this week is Zach Charbonnet's under that fifty percent roster number now because people dropped him after a pretty poor performance in Week six. He saw just nine and a half percent of Seattle's running back rushes, when he was closer to that twenty five thirty percent range during his two games prior Seattle, though wasn't in a positive game script. That's gonna be big for Sharps. When the Seahawks are leading, they're gonna deploy their two headed monster more. They're gonna want to use both running backs to close out games, like we saw in Week three for example. Now they get Arizona this week. Fandel's sportsbook has the Seahawks is a pretty big seven and a half point home favorite. Kenneth Walker's obviously the preferred choice, but Sharbonnay could end up getting like ten touches in this game. Next on the list Jalil McLoughlin. We saw Denver's three man backfield in Week six, but Samaj p Ryan really was just seeing pass catching snaps for the Broncos. So yes, it's a three headed monster, but p Rin had just a seventeen percent snapshare this past week. McLoughlin was at forty percent, Javonte Williams thirty five percent. Mclafflin also had the highest route participation by far on that team, and McLoughlin's been really good this year. He has by far the best expected points added per Kerry among Broncos running backs, and he's the only one with the rushing yards over expected per rush that's north of zero, and it's well north of zero. He gets a Packers team this week that's been the fourth worst against running backs this year and a justin fantasy points allowed. I don't think he's a terrible flex play given the situation at running back across the league. Now, I've got to mention the San Francisco running backs here because both those guys are still under that fifty percent mark. Like I said in the fifteen Transaction Show, I'm only leaning Jordan Mason because he played more snaps than Elijah Mitchell last week and that's our most recent sample. Of course, though Elijah Mitchell was coming off an injury, so anything's possible. The reason we care about this, though, is because San Francisco is one of the most efficient offenses in football, and they could see a positive game script this week against Minnesota. So realistically, both Mason and Mitchell they could be Okay. I'm projecting this to be a split backfield. Latavious Murray is seeing more work in the Bills backfield, and Damian Harris had a scary injury this past week, so Murray's role is even more secure now. But in Week six, Murray ended up with the same snapshare as James Cook. Cook still ran more routes, he saw more touches on the ground, but Murray hit a season high forty four percent running back rush here that was more than double his previous high. Buffalo gets New England, and while the Patriots have been fine against running backs this year, Gamescript could dictate a lot of running back touches for Buffalo, and Murray's also the favorite to see goal line work that makes him intriguing. We'll have to see what happens with Jamiir Gibbs this week, because right now as I record this, it's not confirmed that he's gonna play. If he goes, Craig Reynolds is less attractive as an option. I still think Reynolds would maybe see seven to ten rushes, but Gibbs would likely dominate the receiving work out of the backfield in that scenario. Now, if Gibbs does not go, it could be the Craig Reynolds show for Detroit. David Montgomery's hurt. Gibbs would be hurt in this scenario. Two and even Bam Knight is hurt. He's out for the year, so Reynolds is the last healthy back on this team. In this scenario where Gibbs doesn't play, it's him and Divine a zigbo. So keep an eye on that because if Gibbs is out, Reynolds could be in RB two this week. If Gibbs is in, he's more of a cross your fingers flex. Moving on, let's take a look at some wide receivers. I think a lot of people are gonna look at Josh Down's opponent this week, which is Cleveland, and be turned off. But as individual matchup, it's not that bad. Cleveland actually ranks first and percentage of targets that have been funneled to the slot this year, and they've allowed the most slot receptions in football. That's despite being the toughest opponent for wide receivers and adjusted fantasy points allowed. So yeah, maybe the ceiling won't be crazy for Josh Downs, but as ind slotman, maybe he'll still see seven or eight targets in payoff. Curtis Samuel's another slot guy who's been producing, and I think he makes some senses of flex this week. I think we need to realize he's running really hot in the touchdown department, but like I talked about in the fifty Transaction Show, he's been averaging an eighteen percent target share per game over his last three and that's in a pretty pass heavy offense. The matchup for him is average on paper this week, but as a waiver wire option, he definitely makes sense. And then one more wide receiver for you in this yere is Wan Del Robinson. I've got slot guy's galore here. Robinson saw his best route participation of the season in Week six. He ran around on seventy two percent of New York's dropbacks that led to a twenty six percent target share. Now he doesn't get high quality down the field targets, but in PPR formats he can be usable. That's what we saw last week with his eight catch performance. And now he gets Washington, a team that's really struggled against wide receivers this year. They've allowed the second most adjusted fantasy points per game to the position at tight end. Luke Musgrave gets Denver this week, the perfect matchup. The Broncos are the most advantageous matchup for tight ends and adjusted fantasy points allowed, and Musgrave projects to see like a seventeen to eighteen percent target share. That's enough for him to be a reasonable streaming option. And then there's also the fifteen transactions ad in Michael Mayer, he's seen target shares of ten percent and nineteen percent over his last two He's coming off a tight end one performance. This week he gets Chicago. The Bears have been a top ten opponent for tight ends and the justin fantasy points allowed, so Mayer's not a bad streaming choice. This next tier consists of player's rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues you may be able to start, so they're worse than the tier before this one, and generally speaking, I hope you don't actually have to play them. As of right now, we don't know if Daniel Jones is going to play this weekend. If we assume that he's out, I don't mind to Rod Taylor at quarterback, Washington has been torched by passing attacks this year. Since facing Arizona in Week one, they've seen Russell Wilson capture a QB three performance, Josh Allen QB eight, Jalen Hurts QB five, Justin Field's QB one, and Desmond Ridder Desmond Freaking Ridder. He was the QB ten last week. Taylor looked confident enough in a much more difficult matchup in Week six, so he could take advantage in this one. Washington's secondary has been horrible at running back in this tier. A lot of people are understandably paying up for Zach Evans right now. I think he's the favorite to see the most touches in that backfield, but he's now rostered in over fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, so I can't talk about him on this show, at least as a play as a sleeper. But I also think there's a chance that he just isn't the guy, that he hasn't earned Sean mcvay's trust, or that he's not good enough. The Rams went out they got a couple of running backs this week, largely because they just needed some depth. They needed bodies there with Ronnie Rivers and Kyron Williams being hurt. But they also have Royce Freeman. Royce Freeman is my sub ten percent running back choice this week. The Rams have a plus matchup against a bad Pittsburgh defense, and Freeman's the only non Evans running back who's been on that roster for more than just a few days. So if there's a split backfield, which is possible, or if they don't trust Evans that much that's also possible, then Royce Freeman could see more work than people expect. And not only that, but he's probably a more capable goal line back too. Now a wide receiver, I think you could look at multiple New York Giants pass catchers. Darius Slayton that's probably the safer choice here, But I'm kind of intrigued by Jalen Hyatt. This is the second time this year that I'm talking up Hyatt. The last time I did it, it amounted to absolutely nothing, So be aware of that. Take this with a grain of salt. Well, like I said, Washington's secondary has been torched this year. They're the second best matchup for wide receivers and austin fantasy points allowed. And Jalen Hyatt saw seventy seven percent route participation last week. That was a season high. He also had a thirteen percent target share, also a season high. I think he has some sneaky appeal and as we know, he's someone who's capable of making some big, big plays. And then another wide out in this group, Rondell Moore. This is more of a high floor option compared to Jalen Hyatt, but Moore has seen target shairs of twenty nine percent, five percent, seventeen percent, and eighteen percent over his last four games. He's hit five targets in three of those contests. The Cardinals could have a pass heavy script against Seattle, and the Seahawks haven't been great against wide receivers this year. In fact, they've been the third best matchup for wide receivers and adjusted fantasy points allowed, so more makes some sense. And then, lastly, a tight end, you could look at Taysom Hill. He was actually used as a pass catcher last week. He had eight targets. He caught seven of them for forty nine yards. Those targets are pretty much all low averaged up the target throws, but that's an intriguing number for any tight end streamer. I think there's obvious risk here because that's not how they use Taysom Hill week in and week out. But it's a short week. That might mean that they don't dramatically change up their game plan for this Thursday night game. So I think he's a tight end two this week and one of the go tos in this percent rostered range. As for streaming defenses, there's a lot of them this week. I'll quickly run through them. Washington gets a big, big advantage defensively at the line this week. Their twelfth and pressure rate defensively and the Giants are thirty first and pressure rate allowed, So I think Washington's a very good option. Seattle has a big favorite against Arizona. They make plenty of sense. Tampa Bay is the one that I talked about in the fifteen transaction show. The Rams get the Steelers, who struggled offensively and rank as a top half matchup for fantasy defenses. And then Green Bay against Denver. That's not a terrible play. And also don't sleep on Indianapolis against Cleveland, especially if Deshaun Watson is not back this week. But I think Washington, Seattle, Tampa Bay those three make the most sense this week, and I've bought more into Washington as the week's gone on. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you've get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found inter to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to everyone.

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Speaker 1: I've got a mailbag show and a Late Round Perspectives episode dropping tomorrow. I'll talk to you then