296: Mailbag 10/11/19

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j.

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Speaker 2: J zacher Reson.

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Speaker 1: What's up everyone, It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at FanDuel and at number five dot com. And this is episode two hundred and ninety six of the Late Round Podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 1: So I got a question this week from at R and d Lyon that said, no, you are against vetoing trades, which is true, but what about someone dropping a good player? Someone just dropped Aaron Rodgers not on the Yahoo No cut list and our league is in an uproar. And then I also got one from at from Underscore the Underscore Barn that said, doe to not performing quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield. I have been losing literally by less than five points. Have these stud players become streamers?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 1: So let's approach this time on quarterback studs in fantasy football, or more specifically, big name quarterbacks in fantasy football. Here's what we know about the position in fantasy It's devalued given the number of usable players who play it and the fact that you only need to start one. There are other reasons like predictability that help showcase the lack of value, but that's the high level reasoning. So what that means is that there really are only a handful of quarterbacks each year who are consistent enough to be week in and week out starters, and there are only one or two of them each season that are giving you a big edge over the competition. The name brand that these quarterbacks have is completely irrelevant as a result. I mean, name brand shouldn't really matter that much to begin with, but it really doesn't matter at a position that's relatively replaceable in fantasy football. I mean, look at reality here. Aaron Rodgers has finished higher than QB nineteen and weekly scoring once this season. There are eighteen quarterbacks with the higher points per game average than Aaron Rodgers. Right now, Andy Dalton is averaging more fantasy points per game than Aaron Rodgers. Why on earth should Aaron Rodgers be on a do not cut list? Why are we so attached to Rogers Like I'll give you this, His schedule hasn't been amazing and better days are probably ahead for Aaron Rodgers. Without knowing the details of the league. I probably wouldn't have cut Rogers, but you could easily argue that sending him to free agency isn't even a bad move. You're freeing yourself from taking potentially QB two numbers in your lineup every single week. That's really the key here. I think when we're so tied to what players have done in the past without looking at how they're currently performing, we start to play suboptimally. This is why I keep bringing up Juju Smith Schuster on my matchup show. Yeah, he was able to come through last week with a touchdown, but Juju's peripheral numbers right now aren't even close to what we thought that they would be entering the season. And that's for a variety of reasons, the main one likely being the fact that Ben Roethlisberger is no longer his quarterback. But even still, he's being ranked as a solid wide receiver to every single week. But why so far of the season, over thirty wide receivers have a higher target share than Juju Smith Schuster. He's now playing with backup quarterbacks. You mean to tell me that his talent alone pushes him to that spot. I mean, you can listen back to my podcast over the off season where I gushed about Juju's talent, and even I realize that this is a situation that you should be fearful of, Like, yeah, Juju can be a wide receiver too from here on out. It's certainly possible. But we also have to recognize that so much of the way that rankers and people are viewing him right now has to do with who he is and what we perceived his role to look like entering the season, not right now. So the bottom line here is this, look at the numbers, look at the film, look at the situation, don't look at the player's name and assume that he's a good fantasy asset. Before getting to more questions this week, I wanted to let you guys know about this week's FanDuel free role.

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Speaker 2: For all FanDuel.

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Speaker 1: Podcast network listeners, just go to fandle dot com slash League slash JJ, my name JJ, make a lineup, submit it and see if you can win a number five or premium subscription or even a little litle bit of cash. That's fandul dot Com Slash League slash JJ to enter this week's contest for free. This first question is from at Tampa two tone. Do you anticipate any offenses shifting gears away from their current neutral game script play calling. Minnesota comes to mind as an example that could start passing more. Yeah. So I don't know about offenses shifting away from their current neutral gamescript play calling, but I think we need to always recognize when offenses are calling plays in a drastically different way when in neutral gamescripts. That's something I try to highlight each week on the ten Trend Show. So, for instance, Minnesota has the second lowest pass the rush attempt ratio this season in football, behind only San Francisco or ahead of only San Francisco. But when games are within six points are in neutral gamescripts, Minnesota ranks twenty third. This tells us that Minnesota has likely seen some positive game scripts this year, which they have, but it also tells us that if games are closer, we're not going to see a ten attempt game from Kirk Cousins. This is why I don't mind Kirk Cousins as a streamer this week against Philadelphia. So what you need to do is look at teams who have drastically different ratios overall versus in neutral game scripts. And then ask yourself why Atlanta, for example, has the highest difference between the two when looking at pass heavy offenses versus what they do in.

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Speaker 2: Neutral game scripts.

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Speaker 1: They would be more run heavy if the team was in closer games, But will they be in closer games? Well, the defense is atrocious, so maybe the answer to that is no. On the flip side, Buffalo, New England, and Kansas City have been far more pass heavy in neutral game scripts than what their overall ratio is showing. Will that continue? Well, I think that you can make the argument for New England, for example, that with tougher competition, the pass catchers on that team may end up benefiting a bit from a more pass heavy game plan. So that's sort of how I look at these things. If you guys want, I can publish this chart to Twitter each week as well.

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Speaker 2: Just let me know.

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Speaker 1: This next question is from at Real Joel Miracle. When is it reasonable to start looking at playoff schedules and start making moves accordingly example Aaron Jones versus Chicago week fifteen and at Minnesota in week sixteen. I'm very much a player who always tries to win in the short term because you've got to get there first. But if it's like Week seven and you can sell high on a player who has a tough playoff schedule and objectively tough playoff schedule and you're undefeated or something.

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Speaker 2: Then that's fine.

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Speaker 1: It's not like you're not getting anything in return. And Aaron Jones is honestly a borderline cell candidate right now. I didn't like his peripherals before Jamal Williams got hurt, and that really really helped his cause in fantasy. Aaron Jones wouldn't have done what he did last week if Jamal Williams was healthy. But from a yards to touchdowns conversion standpoint, or when you look at the number of yards that he has versus the number of touchdowns that he should have based on that total, Jones's tops in the league and overperforming in the touchdown column. Now that's not a surprise, and he probably should be overperforming given his usage close to the goal line. But once we hit week fifteen or sixteen, he might be in a committee more than we'd like. That's going to lower his fantasy value anyway. And you guys know that I love me some Aaron Jones. I'm just trying to be realistic. So to answer this question more directly, I mostly look forward to the next four weeks or so until a playoff spot is mostly guaranteed. Then I'll do some work for the playoffs. This last question from at rs Jones fourteen is there anyone better to buy low on than Le'Veon Bell?

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Speaker 2: Usage is insane?

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Speaker 1: Donald back means the offense looks competent again and the rest of season's schedule after week seven is ridiculously easy. Yeah. I mean, if you can trade for Le'Veon Bell to discount, then do it. I'd be under the assumption that the person who has Bell understands that things haven't been that great because they've been playing with a third string quarterback, but it never hurts a shooting offer their way. On the year, Bell has a crazy high twenty seven percent target share and he's seen eighty eight percent of the team's running back rushes. He's got elite usage, and with Darnald back, his scoring opportunities should hypothetically increase. This next question says, what is the best strategy when approaching a one and four underachieving team in redraft or a keeper league? Stay the course sell two for ones? Is there a particular statistic that can be helpful. Keep up the great work. Love your content.

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Speaker 2: Thanks.

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Speaker 1: So I talked about this a little bit in the past, but i'd really focus on how truly lucky or unlucky you've been so far. In this case unlucky, like, do you have a lot of points and you've just faced a lot of big performances. For example, I'm in a lot of fantasy leagues, more than I'd like to admit, and my worst team record wise right now in redraft leagues is in the awesome O charity league that I'm doing with other analysts. I'm one in four in that league right now. It's my only redraft team without multiple wins. But my team on paper is probably a borderline playoff team. It's not really that bad. I've had some bad luck with injuries, but I'm still right in the middle of the pack in point scored. So I'm trying to make some moves to improve my roster. But I don't think it's necessary to just sell everything off. I don't love my chances of making the playoffs, but selling just to sell doesn't make.

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Speaker 2: A ton of sense.

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Speaker 1: Now, if your team completely sucks, then yeah, you've got to make some sacrifices. You've got to give up some of your best players. Be okay with giving those players up. And then the other thing that you can do is look at touchdown regression. Do you have underachievers in the touchdown column who are still getting volume. If that's the case, then your team is probably still okay. But those are the types of questions that I ask. This next question is from at E Kicks MK. What are the numbers saying about Joe Mixon? Do you think that he's due for bigger games or should expect the same. The biggest problem with Mixon is that he's not being used a whole lot in the passing game.

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Speaker 2: He has just an eight percent target share this year.

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Speaker 1: Now, fortunately Cincinnati's been pretty pass heavy, but even still that low of a share one Allowl player like that and a bad offense to be an RB one, and it really is a bad situation.

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Speaker 2: Cincinnati ranks eighth worst.

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Speaker 1: And yards per drive this year, and they've run plays within their opponent's ten yard line at one of the lowest rates in the league. It's because the offense isn't good. Those scoring opportunities just aren't there. I mean Mixon's usable because a running back seeing pretty significant work will be usable, but he's become an RB two.

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Speaker 2: This year given that situation.

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Speaker 1: This next question from at Suspect nineteen eighty three rest of season Smokey Brown or Curtis Samuel.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with John Brown here.

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Speaker 1: Actually I talked about him this week on the fifteen Transaction Show and how after this week's by Buffalo has basically five straight games of good matchups, and Brown this year has seen about two percent more of his team's targets than Curtis Samuel has for Carolina. So I think i'd lean Brown at this point, though I don't think that Samuel is a bad player to have this next questions from at D Heck fifty one. Are both Brida and Coleman viable weekly options? A dip into the San Francisco backfield would be nice? Love the show, thanks, so yeah, let's dig into this backfield. This past week we had a three headed monster back there with Brita Coleman and Mosterd Coleman coming off his injury, saw sixteen carries, Brita eleven and most at seven, but it should be noted that most only had two carries before the middle of the fourth quarter when that game was out of hand. I think that's good news for both Coleman and Brita. But the way I view the backfield is that we may see Coleman get most of the early down work and probably most of the goal line work, whereas Brida is more of the explosive change of pace guy who's going to find the field more on third downs. The fact that Jeff Wilson saw goal line work when Coleman was out tells you that Bred is probably not going to be that guy. So both players can be usable as long as the forty nine ers keep playing in positive game scripts. If things go south, though, then Brida may become the better PPR play. This next question is from at Adam Underscore Perky what's up? JJ, Hey, what's up Adam? I have an ethics question. If you are winning your matchup going into the Monday night game and your opponent is done, are you obligated to field a full roster and chance someone pulling a Baker to lose you the matchup? You're definitely not obligated to do this because your first priority is winning. You just have to make sure that there won't be any scoring airs fixed. But no, there's no ethical problem in doing this. In the end, it may even hurt you more than anything else, not just because you could lose, but because you're also leaving points on the table for potential tie breakers. But the top priority is to win. Do what you have to do to win. Sometimes that means benching players on Monday night. This last question is from at the Mike Rager. Hey, JJ, love the info and the supporting data.

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Speaker 2: Thanks.

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Speaker 1: One question I have is what wide receiver three do you see becoming a wide receiver one by the end of the season. Yeah, so, statistically, there won't be a ton of players who jump from wide receiver three range to wide receiver one range, or at least players who won't finish as wide receiver ones who are currently wide receiver threes. But there are a couple of players who are in that range that seem kind of obvious to me. And I'm going by points per game here, but DeAndre Hopkins is the most obvious one. We've seen him consistently perform in fantasy football, and he still has the peripherals to do it. He's still seen a twenty percent target share. Are better in every single game this year, so at wide receiver twenty seven, he's in obvious choice.

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Speaker 2: Robert Woods is somewhat of an interesting candidate as well.

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Speaker 1: He's at wide receiver thirty one right now in points per game, but he hasn't found the end zone. He's one of the bigger positive regression candidates in fantasy football. And then I guess I should just mention OBJ because of who he is. Like, would it shock anyone if OBJ turns his season around and is really really fantasy relevant? Probably not. We know he's really talented, but I don't think I see that happening. I think he's more in that wide receiver too range. From here on out, that's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've get to subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. And if you're listening to the show on Apple Podcasts, do me a favor and leave.

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Speaker 2: Me a rating and review there.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to everyone, and enjoy your weekend