660: Mailbag 8/5/22

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Speaker 1: This is the Label Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J Zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zach er Eesen in this episode six hundred and sixty of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Before get into the questions this week, I want to let you know about the Established the Run Draft kit. Established Run has rankings for any fantasy format that you might be playing in, and they continuously update as news breaks. You can get access to Evan Silva's top one fifty and along with it a change log that you can read to see why players are moving up and down his draft board. It's a great way to make sure you understand why players are ranked where they are. The goals to help you make better decisions, not tell you who to pick, and if you're into bestball drafting, their strategy, rankings and insight can help you out a ton with roster construction. I know I've learned a lot from their analysis. Established Run gives you a different perspective on fantasy football than I do, and I think the combination of my work and theirs can out make this draft season a successful one. So head over to Established Run dot com and purchase their draftkit, and when you do, use promo CODEJJ for a ten percent discount. That's promo code Jay J. And speaking of Established the Run, they reached out and they want to hop in and join some of the others who have purchased and given out some late round draft guides. We've done this over the last few weeks and the response has been awesome. But basically, I know that not everyone has the means just go out and buy a twenty five dollars fantasy football draft guide, and in turn, listeners of the show have bought guides to give out to other listeners, other listeners who wouldn't be able to get the guide otherwise, Establish the Run wants to join in. 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Please use the honor system and don't use the code if you're planning on purchasing the guide or if you can purchase the guide. I really appreciate it, and thanks to ETR for their generosity. And one more thing, don't forget to sign up for Fandle Fantasy. For users who have got to make a deposit on Fandle Fantasy, you can deposit today to receive two free entries. All I have to do is deposit a minimum of ten dollars in your fandal dfs account and you'll be instantly rewarded with two free vouchers. Be sure to posit now. And play for free. Head over to fandle dot com or download the Fandle Fantasy app today. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the fandal app for more details. I know that was a lot at the top, but it's question time, and this first question is from Robert from Patreon. It says Deebo said he doesn't mind the usage in the backfield. Plus his new contract has some incentives to outdo what he did last season as a running back. How does this affect his ranking and other forty nine ers? So, Deebo's work last year, his production last year when he was used more as a running back, wasn't that much better than when he was just a wide receiver from a fantasy perspective. That's largely because Deepot had a target share per game of thirty three percent before his role change, and then when the role changed, he ended up scoring rushing touchdowns at an absolutely obscene rate. He scored seven rushing touchdowns over his final eight games on just fifty three rush attempts, and then he scored another one in the playoffs. I do think he's obviously better than the app average. Swiss Army knife player, and it'll probably score rushing touchdowns at a higher rate than normal. I'm not that ignorant when talking about regression, but a lot of what he did in twenty twenty one was just unsustainable. And now we've got a quarterback change where that quarterback may be more inclined to throw it down the field and he may take some of that rushing production near the end zone himself. When you've got a mobile quarterback, the wide receivers on that team need a few percentage points higher in target share in order to maintain their production. So not only was Debo going to see natural volume regression, but now we've got a team with a mobile quarterback. I think Debot is still fine this year, and he's good, but I have a hard time drafting him as high as some will inevitably draft him. And how this impacts the running backs on the team is actually pretty interesting. Deebo started seeing more work on the ground last year in Week ten, so he had eight games where he wasn't seeing a lot of backfield work and then eight games where he would be in that seven rush attempt or so range. When you split that season up in half, the other running backs on the team saw a slightly lower rush share overall. When Diebo was seeing work in the backfield, they scored a similar number of Fantasy points, but the rush share did drop, which is not surprising. Deebo missed a game against Seattle last year and in that game Elijah Mitchell saw eighty eight percent of the team's rushes. And his other games during that Deebo Samuel split, where Samuel was used more in the backfield, he averaged a rush share of sixty four percent, and that leads me to the next question. This best question is from at noninator on Twitter. It says, hey, JJ, I know you've covered ambiguous backfields in the running back dead zone, but my question is regarding Elijah Mitchell. The Shanahan narrative falls apart once the circumstances are considered injuries. Is Eli actually a dead zoner considering what he would have done in seventeen weeks. I don't think Mitchell is the worst running back dead zone pick, but I do think that he belongs in the dead zone. Now. I just mentioned that stuff about Debo, and that's not necessarily good news. If Samuel is in that backfield more, that means Mitchell won't be And even though Tiryan Davis Price may not become anything, the forty nine Ers' actions indicated that they may not be totally sold that Mitchell can be a true belcal back. Will he lead that backfield and touches as long as he's healthy? We should bet on that. Yes, But a huge problem for Mitchell, even aside from Deebo, and aside from Trey Lance potentially stealing goal line looks, and aside from the competition in the backfield, it's the receiving work. Mitchell had five games last year without a target. He saw two or fewer targets in seventy three percent of his games. And I'm not that bullish if the forty nine ers are going to target him at a much much higher rate this year with Deebo Samuel back and with a mobile quarterback under center. Now he's at least a second year back. That's what you won out of the dead zone. You want rookies and second year guys, and the forty nine ers should be a decent team with a run heavy approach. I think he's someone who can meet expectation at his ADP, but far exceeding it. May be difficult. This test question is from Patreon. It's from Dan. It says, hey, JJ is Cordero Patterson criminally underrated by everyone, including yourself. You have him at RB thirty three, one hundred overall on your latest Redraft rankings. I know he takes a lot of the quote pass metrics from your draft guide, like Age, but I'd argue that he hasn't had the running back wear and tear, so I'm not sure age is as much of an issue. He finished top ten at both running back and wide receiver in PPR. The Falcons lost Matt Ryan and replace him with Mariota. I see this as a positive for Patterson, as the option game could be interesting. The Falcons will be playing from behind a lot of the time, so increased dump offs to Patterson are likely there for Patterson's ADP eight h six, where he'll likely have running back slash wide receiver position eligibility, no real competition at running back on the team depth chart, and favorable game scripts for a pass catching running back, I think he's in absolute steal. Okay, so with this one, there's a lot to unpack. I mentioned this on a recent Mailbag episode. I think it was last week with Ezekiel Elliott. But we have to stop talking about cumulative numbers when referencing where a player ranked the previous season. Cordero Patterson was the RB nine and PPR points scored last year, Yes, but he was the RB eighteen on a points per game basis. And as for the wide receiver ranking, he would have ranked nineteenth at wide receiver in total points scored last year had he been a wide receiver, not top ten. So really, Patterson was a mid range RB two last year. There's nothing wrong with that, and if he repeats that exact same performance this season, he will indeed exceed expectation. I talked about this a few weeks ago in a Mailbag episode. If you were guaranteed fourteen point seven PPR points per game from Cordero Patterson, he would end up being a moderate breakout, meaning he'd exceed ADP expectation by three or more PPR points per game. And I'm not here to tell you that you're wrong, because we're all just projecting right now. No one is right or wrong. This is a safe space. We're just talking about how we feel about fantasy football. But I can at least share some evidence as to why I don't think Patterson is as much of a Locke. First off, age we've had one true breakout or a player to exceed ADP expectation by six or more points per game. We've had one of them come from the middle round since twenty eleven who was passed his fifth year in the league. And for the record, that subset of players, those older guys, they made up about thirty four percent of all middle round running backs. Now I wrote about this in my draft guide. But to put this another way, nine percent of the true middle round breakouts at running back since twenty eleven were from older players, But thirty four percent of the overall sample of middle round running backs were past their fifth year in the league, and even their moderate breakout rates weren't very good either. So that's a concern. The historical trend is a concern even if you think and you understand that Cordero Patterson hasn't gone through a traditional path to being a starter. I also don't really buy the idea that the Falcons are going to be trailing going to use Patterson more. The Falcons were bad last year. They ran the eighth most plays while trailing in twenty twenty one. I don't know if there would be an increased number of dumpoffs when they not only added Drake London to the offense and not only as Kyle Pitts another year in. But they were a bad team last year too, so yes, they're gonna be trailing, but I don't know if there's an increase happening. And remember, mobile quarterbacks aren't necessarily a good thing for running backs in fantasy football. It's more neutral. But episode five hundred and ten covers that idea in more detail. And don't forget either, Patterson really dropped off towards the tail end of last year. A lot of his numbers came during the front half, and his production was boosted by a touchdown total that was about three touchdowns too high according to Pro Football Focus as expected touchdowns model. I just don't draft players like Cordero Patterson very heavily in fantasy football. I'm not gonna fault anyone for thinking that he's somewhat of an outlier, because he is. He's got a non traditional route to get here, But he seems like a player like Elijah Mitchell, who's more likely to just match adp rather than be some league winner. This last question is an email and it says, hey, JJ, love your work. Thanks. I was just wondering about your thoughts on cam Acres. I don't necessarily love him because the last time we saw him he didn't look great, but he seems to hit a lot of the marks for a breakout. He's one of my keeper options in a redraft auction league for one dollar. He's hard to pass up. But I have a lot of great options and just trying to work through all of them. Thanks. Ronnie Acres is one of those players where it entirely depends where you're drafting him, like what platform you're using to draft him. In a best ball format where he sometimes falls into the fifth round, I have no problem getting him there. He'll have some spiked weeks in a good offense, and if you want him as part of a game stack or a team stack, that's totally reasonable. But in the late round draft guide update this week, I actually added cam Akers as a player to avoid, and the main reason for that is because, according to most EIGHTYP sources, the sources that people are gonna be drafting with in their home leagues, Acres is like an early to mid third rounder. And I cannot get behind that when there's so much good wide receiver talent in that range. I'm not even putting a lot of stock in how he performed last year either. He was actually better than Sony michelle In's success rate during the Rams playoff run. The Rams just didn't get a lot of push with their offensive line and they faced some really good rush defenses. My issue is twofold number one. I think there's a chance that we see more Darryl Henderson than some think, and that was reinforced when Sean McVeigh just this week talked about how he feels like they have two starting running backs on that roster. On top of that, the Rams just aren't using their running backs in the receiving game all that much. Since Todd Gurley left, no team has targeted the running back position at a lower rate than the LA Rams. Only Baltimore has fewer total running back targets than LA during this time. I just think a lot has to go acres way for him to be a solid RB one in fantasy football, and if you're getting him in the third round, you need that in his range of outcomes. This is why he's sort of a quintessential dead zone running back. He's someone who can return value, but I opt to go for wide receivers in that range who have better odds of being true difference makers. The last question this week is an emo from at signerscore Claw thirteen. It says Naji Harris was first in touches and second in touches per game last season among running backs. He had ten touchdowns last season in seventeen games. How does Harris's expected touchdowns compared to actual touchdowns last season and his more touchdowns the only way Nause improves from last season? Does Big Ben leaving affect his pass game upside? I currently have Harris as my RB seven. Am I too low on him? Thanks in advance? So Harris last year more or less scored the number of touchdowns that he should have. I had him at a little over eleven. He scored ten, so he could have gotten a little bit more, but it wasn't egregious. I have concerns about Nause this year, though, and I've pushed him down my draft board seemingly every single week with more thoughts about his situation. He's gonna see a ton of work, There's no doubt about it. He should at the very least be a top two round pick. I think that we should all agree there, but I do have concerns about how the volume is going to fluctuate through the air. As a receiver, we might see his fourteen percent target share per game rate once again this year, but it might be a little bit lower with a more mobile passer. But the Steelers are very likely to not be as pass heavy as they've been over the last couple of seasons. They've been second in the NFL in each of the last two seasons in pass rate. With the quarterback change and a strong enough defense, I would be shocked if that remains the same. So a slight bump down in target chair he'd be able to usually handle right, it wouldn't be that big of a deal. But then NAT's on top of the Steelers not throwing the ball more throwing the ball the same amount, and that's where the can certain lies. He might not see nearly as much volume through the air. So I think RB seven is fine for Nase, and I have him in that range as well, but I don't know if his ceiling is as high as someone like DeAndre Swift or even Saquon Barkley, so it just depends on your preference. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, you know, if it's to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Remember to check out lateround dot com. You can subscribe to the free newsletter, you can become a patron, and you can also buy the Late Round Draft Guide for twenty four ninety nine. People seem to like it. I think it would really help you out during your draft. But thanks everyone, really appreciate you listening. I'll talk to you next week.