All Eyes On Starting Pitching Market As Spring Training Nears

00:00:21
Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome back to the Hemmer Territory Podcast. This is episode three two eight. My name is Brad Rowland and I'm joined on this Sunday. It's February first, a new month, and by the way, it's a baseball month.

00:00:34
Speaker 2: I'm joined by Scott Coleman. Scott, what's going on?

00:00:37
Speaker 3: Hello, Brad? You are absolutely right, it is baseball month. We are about three weeks away as we record, from the first spring training games for the Atlanta Braves, and that's exciting. And I would say the earlier parts of this offseason probably had a little more activity than what we've seen in the last few weeks for the Braves.

00:00:55
Speaker 2: Who knows.

00:00:55
Speaker 3: We're basically in the final week of the off season now. You would sure think that these remaining free agents would need to find a place to call home here pretty soon before things really ramp up down in Florida and out in Arizona. But yeah, we're almost here. We're like less than sixty days away from opening day at this point, and you know, every day we're just one day closer and closer to real baseball being back in our lives.

00:01:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean pictures and cutchers report in nine days. February tenth is the brave state for the first bit of actual activity. We make fun of this all the time, but like you get the one video shot of guys walking into the facility, and that's kind of it the first couple of days, but hey, it does mark the start of something. The full squad is due to arrive two weeks from today, the fifteenth of February, so we're getting closer and closer to that. And as you mentioned, the first game setting and not every game was televised, all that fun stuff, but we're three weeks away from that. So baseball is kind of here. We're in that nether region where you and I like football, and this is the dead zone of Super Bowl week. It kind of begins now, but there's no football this week. The Pro Bowl nons all this stuff. But it's like, oh, baseball is happening. If people kind of turn their attention if you're not about If you're a basketball person, then it's basketball season. If you don't like basketball, it's basically it's baseball or baseball and baseball from now until football returns basically in August September. So some excitement there. If you are new to the podcast. We are here a territory.

00:02:22
Speaker 2: We cover the.

00:02:22
Speaker 1: Braves all year round. Every week of the year, we will have content on this fee, whether in audio form or video form. We're part of Foul Territory and they do a great job every single day. Those guys are always on the air. It seems like shouts to them. There are bosses, but also great content and there's a lot of like there's like a lead thing today, there's no like breaking news. We'll talk about some stuff that's happening in the Braves world. There's some nuggets, there's some reporting to get to. There was a signing that is of interest, not a blockbuster by any means, but of interest to me. First though, we got some questions about a report from Mark finesand MLB dot com and he listed the Brave as one of seven. So it's a lot of suitors, but seven suitors for Frebrivaldez, who is still unsigned. Our most recent show on this feed was our colleagues Sean Coleman Steven Tolbert talking about the recent Braves ties to guys like Chris Bassett and Lucas Gielito.

00:03:18
Speaker 2: Still have Zach Gallon.

00:03:19
Speaker 1: Out there on the market, there are four real starring pitchers that will command real money that are still available right now into February, which is not the usual thing. And what that is jumping off point Scott, like, are these guys gonna sign at some point? And also what did you make of the Braves being somewhat officially tied to Frebrivaldez.

00:03:39
Speaker 3: I mean they have to sign soon, right, do they?

00:03:42
Speaker 2: I got to know, I guess not.

00:03:44
Speaker 3: I mean it's about six o'clock Eastern time on Sunday as we are recording this, just to put that time stamp on. But yeah, I mean, especially pictures with spring training. Spring training is very long for pitchers and catchers. And I know hitters usually say they need like three or four weeks to really get their timing and their legs under them and all that. But pitchers they really have to build up. They go out there and they start throwing bullpens, and then of course they throw one inning and two inning and three inning and four inning in the first couple of starts of the spring. And it's it's just such a build up process that you don't want any pitcher to be delayed in the spring. And if these guys don't sign in the next I don't know, ninety six hours. I mean, they're almost certainly going to be delayed. I'm fascinated by Framber Valdez. I know he has the very ugly one pitch that I am sure he wished he could take back where he appeared to intentionally cross up his catcher. I guarantee you that alex Enthopolis and all the GMS in baseball with even some level of interest in Fraanmber Valdez are doing their homework on Framber, talking to former teammates, former coaches, trying to get an idea of what this guy is. Because, make no mistake about it, if that one pitch was just like wiped off the earth, I think Framber was gonna have no problem getting a five, six, seven year deal at twenty five plus million dollars a year. I don't know how much ultimately that one pitch is going to impact his market, but it makes sense to connect the Braves to Framber Valdez. They could absolutely use him. I think he would make a marked improvement in the rotation for this team and really give them a chance to have a special year. I just we've said it before on the show. I guess I will believe a mega free agent pitcher signing for alex Enthopolis if and when it happens.

00:05:31
Speaker 2: We agree there.

00:05:32
Speaker 1: I think the longer this goes, the more likely it becomes that the Braves get in the mix on someone like this because of what you just said, like the market may not be that what it was supposed to be, and a lot of these guys, a lot of their position players. But there have been several players who wanted the six to seven year monster deal that ended up signing the three or four three four year deal with higher aav perhaps, and it's not apples to apples, but the Braves are probably more willing to do something like that than they would be to give six years seven years from Valdez. And because there's four guys like and then I B. Framber, he's the best of the bunch. But we've talked about it a lot, and so Sean Stevens won't have to repeat all that stuff again. But Chris Bassett would help this team. He would, and he's available right now. Giolito's a little bit less sure of that for me, but like a guy that's interesting at least. And then Zach Gallen if the price comes down a little bit from where it was, and I think it almost has to come down a little bit now from where it was perhaps three months ago. Like when there are four real pitchers available at least three three and a half ro pictures available on February first, the chances of you signing one seem to be a little bit higher, just because not every team is still looking at this point the Brave I was ist looking from stry pitching. Some teams that actually might have been in the market for these guys have already done their other business and maybe have pulled away and just by proxy, by proxy process of elimination, like the pie is slimmer, and that means the part of the pie that's the Brave Spy is bigger. If that makes sense. I might be rambling at this point, but no, it.

00:06:58
Speaker 3: Makes total sense. Because if teams know they have to get a starter, a lot of the time they don't want to wait around till the first week of February in order to do it, or they might want to use use their money elsewhere and not put all their eggs in this basket. And it's fascinating if you look at the free agent market. Basically, the only kind of real market that's left is that starting pitching market.

00:07:21
Speaker 2: It really is.

00:07:22
Speaker 1: You actually put me before the show. I didn't fully realize until you brought it up. It is stark how little else there is available other than those four starting pitchers.

00:07:30
Speaker 2: Basically, it's kind of it.

00:07:32
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, there's a couple of old, kind of good hitters who are like DH first base types, Paul Goldschmidt, Marcelo Zuna, Rhys Hoskins. That's pretty much it. Man, Like, you can probably find like a fourth outfielder or someone who can kind of like platoon and DH four you or something, But it's pretty much that kind of big group of starting pitchers. I don't know, Brad, let me let me ask you this. We've talked about Framber. I mean, yes, they would lose the draft pick, but Brave signed Framber.

00:07:59
Speaker 2: Vell don't care.

00:08:01
Speaker 3: And I also would sleep well knowing that I know that Alex did all of his background on Framer. Yeah, but Zach Gallen, Like, what do you think about Zach Gallen? A couple of years ago, he was so good with the Diamondbacks. One of the best pitchers in baseball was maddening and just I mean, to be blunt, pretty terrible with the Diamondbacks this past year. If you ask a Diamondbacks fan and I have those in my life, they want no real part of Zach Gallen, which is kind of telling. But he's clearly a talented guy. He's been largely durable, he throws a lot of pitches, and he's been with the Diamondbacks his entire career. So maybe a team like the Braves with new pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, see Zach Gallen and go, you know, maybe if if he threw this pitch more and stop throwing his whatever pitch like you know, there's there's probably ideas of ways to get Gallon back to being a cy young candidate as he was a few years ago.

00:08:52
Speaker 2: But I mean, where are you at with Gallen? Interested?

00:08:57
Speaker 1: You know, he's the one where I know I said I didn't care about Framber. The only limitation about the draft pick commensation is like, you don't want to do a one year deal and give up a draft pick, even me as like I don't care about the draft as much as everybody else does. I wouldn't want to do that, probably unless it was comically cheap, which it won't be for Framber. Maybe if if Gallon's market just is like totally gone and it's like, hey, one year and eighteen million, like sure, I'll probably do that because it's so cheap that it's kind of worth it. But I'm interested. I've never been in love with with a Gallon experience. The way you friend it is the right way. If you're looking to argue on his behalf is like, hey, talent's still there. He's been a workhorse, has had upside in the past. Perhaps the Braves and It had success with this in the past, like identifying something that they like in a picture, magnifying it, and then kind of damping down what they don't like in that picture. So if the Brave signs that Gallon, I I mean, depending on price, if they give him nine figures, which I think would be a surprise at this point on February first, but assuming it's a relatively reasonable sum, I'd be like, you know, but I kind of trust this front office in this organization to have a plan for someone like that, and doing it would mean that they like him enough to do that and like see something. So I'm not like a blind appeal to authority person. But given the history with Gallen, there's enough in there to like someone smarter than I am about pitching, could like identify something to highlight with him. So long story long, like I don't know, three year deal, like at at a reasonable number, like sign me up for Zach Gallen. I wouldn't be as excited about as that would be about Framber because Framer's a lot better. I think I should say a lot better. I think Framber is a lot safer to be good early on and safe to the world that I hate with pitchers, but it is what it is. Yeah, But I think Gallen's just kind of He's perfectly in the middle of Valdez and Bassett for me, where it's like Bassett we know exactly what he is, not sexy, but we know what he is. Framber much sexier, we know what he is. Gallon's we don't know what he is, but the upside is so much higher than Bassett. Then it's like tantalizing if it works.

00:11:01
Speaker 2: I don't know.

00:11:01
Speaker 3: Yeah, No, I absolutely, I mean I think you talk about a postseason starter. Could Zach Gallon be someone you you comfortably give a ball to to pitch game one or game two of a playoff series. I think so, Like, if he makes some improvements, but there's also a chance that his days are mostly done as being a top end starting pitcher and he just turns into like the back of the rotation inning Zeter. And if that's what Gallen is moving forward, or if that's what the Braves think Zach Kllen is going to be moving forward, then you just signed Chris Bassett for less money and you don't lose that very valuable draft pick and the money that comes with it. Like, I don't know. I mean, if you held my feet to the fire, who has a better twenty twenty six Zach Gallen or Chris Bassett? I mean, I guess I would lean towards Gallen by a little bit.

00:11:48
Speaker 2: But I don't know if I would.

00:11:50
Speaker 1: I think I honestly, if it was just like the median outcome, I think I would probably take Bassett, to be honest, It's just the upside's lower for Bassett. Like if you told me one of those guys was gonna be a top fix the young in a shure, it's gonna be Gallon. But if it's like, hey, who's gonna fish with more fangrafts war next season, I think I might take might take Bassett. Honestly, so I get it.

00:12:10
Speaker 2: Bassett's old.

00:12:11
Speaker 1: I understand my my predilection towards old short contract pictures, but I still, for me, I still go that direction, and less Framberg comes in at a price that I don't think is going to come, maybe it will. My combination of investment and picture still leans toward Bassett. Because look, as much as you and I have repeatedly said, despite disagreement for a lot of listeners, that the Braves need a starting pitcher, their need is a little bit different than other teams, which I will certainly acknowledge. There is some freedom if you're Alex in saying, look, we want a starting pitcher, but we you know, we can't be bowled over. A desperation level may not be there for the Braves that it is for some teams, and Alex likes that position, I think, But uh, look, listen, we've said this a number of times. We'll set again now is I will a month from now? If the Braves have not added a picture, I'm not going to be terribly happy about that. So yeah, here we are.

00:13:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it would just really round out this offseason, even if it's just Chris Bassett, like a reliable number four to put behind your big three. It gives versatility and allows for versatility with Ronaldo Lopez and Grand Holmes, and you're not counting on those guys necessarily for your rotation. You don't have to throw Bryce Elder to the Wolves. You don't have to. I mean, it gives you so many more options for how you want to construct not just your rotation, but you're pitching staff one through thirteen. It just looks so much better with one more starting pitcher in there, just like the bullpen looks much better with Tyler Kinley added in. Even if Tyler Kinley by himself is nothing spectacular. The Braves just look better with one more pitcher and hopefully in the next couple of days the Braves can get something done. Yeah, that's very similar. Even though it's not apples to apples, it's a good point to say, like just strengthening the whole, giving yourself another out innings, covering a lot of innings like you have to cover a certain amount of nings o ofver a course of the season, and being able to assume with some confidence that you can cover another one hundred and seventy of those innings with Chris Bassett would be very helpful, you know.

00:14:15
Speaker 1: So anyway, we'll see. But as we just led, with only nine days to people are arriving at Braves camp, and that's a kind of jarring notion honestly here on February first. But we're getting close. Yeah, okay, Scott. In a second, I want to dive into the picture of the Braves added on a minor league deal. But it's actually a familiar name, a more familiar name than you might expect on a minor league deal. We'll get into all that more in just a moment after a word from our partners, Scott. The Braves made an addition in the last few days, and I would call it risk free starting pitching depth. That's a not I'm not trying to sell it to anyone.

00:14:54
Speaker 2: It is.

00:14:54
Speaker 3: It is risk free. It's a minor league deal.

00:14:57
Speaker 1: It's a guy who has been a major league starting pitcher for a long time, including last season. His name is Martin Perez, veteran leftander, turns thirty five soon again one more time minor league deal.

00:15:10
Speaker 2: So like the bare minimum investment. What did you make of this?

00:15:14
Speaker 1: Because he was an All Star in twenty twenty two, that's not that long ago. I also don't want to lead with that because it's like, that's not what he's actually going to be under any real world circumstance. But I think I think it was capitin Labnu. Something on Twitter was like, I will never complain about a major league starter on a minor league contract, and that's kind of what I thought. I was like, Hey, I don't know if it'll work, you might be cooked, but sign me up for a guy who might be a fifth starter for sure zero dollars Basically.

00:15:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean Martin Perez, a veteran lefty who is about as boring as it gets. He doesn't yeah, it doesn't throw hard. You look at his Baseball Savant and stat Cast profile. There's nothing here that's sexy. I mean, this guy is a boring, tried and true veteran who's been around the game for a lot long time. But it's a minor league deal and no money is guaranteed. Why not Like whether or not the Brave sign a starting pitcher, like a better starting pitcher in the next couple of days, why not bring Martin Perez to camp, or if there's similar guys to Martin Perez, bring them to camp too, because of all of a sudden they unlock something or throwing the ball really well for you in the spring, it might kind of give you a lottery ticket for free. And if a guy stinks, If Martin Perez makes three starts and on March tenth he has an ERA of fourteen, you shake hands, you bring him in the clubhouse. Walt White shakes hands and says good luck. Try to catch on with another team, but you're not gonna make the club. No harm, no foul, You're out. I mean literally, probably a couple thousand dollars is what Perez will get to basically try out and work out for the team. If you hit gold, awesome, but if you don't, then then no harm, no foul.

00:16:53
Speaker 2: That's right.

00:16:54
Speaker 1: And like last year with the White Sox he was fine. He had some elbow and shoulder issues, only only made ten starts. He got traded from Pittsburgh to San Diego at the twenty four deadline. It's like a year and a half ago, and since then he throwed one hundred eight innings with an era in the mid threes, that's kind of misleading FIP of like four point five, so like that's not particularly good. But again for free like Zips by the way, which is that gospel and Danzipborsi is a great I'll say front of the podcast actually was on the show long long ago. He will tell you that he's the creator of zips. But they have him projected for a four point four to six era, a four point four to five FIP and one point three fangrafts war and one hundred and seven innings. Is that gonna change your life? No, but that's better than what the brands were using last year in rotation at times, I mean all joking aside, it is like and you're one hundred percent right. I would say maybe the most likely scenario is that he gets cut in six weeks from now, But there is a non zero and I would say easily non zero chance that he is like better than Price older, or better than Joey Wentz or better whoever the whoever your picture does du jor sixth starter is he might be better than that guy. We don't know, but that's at least possible. So I didn't want to lead with this because remember this is funny. Remember last winter when we were starved for content and we did an entire show on Brian dey la Cruz because I do.

00:18:31
Speaker 3: Uh I remember it. I try not to remember.

00:18:35
Speaker 2: And then that was it was very clear, very fast that that was not going to be a thing. He was on the team. It didn't, it didn't go very well.

00:18:41
Speaker 1: This is not that, and that Perez is the opposite, Like Perez is an old, boring guy and Adela Cruz was a failed prospect who like had some talent and his just sense refailed basically, but it's kind of the same, Like I don't want to leave the show with Martine Perez, but it's a it's a deal that we agree, Like it's just yeah, one you make if it's this available to you, you press the button, you signed the contract for seventy four dollars and thirty six cents.

00:19:07
Speaker 2: And you call it a yeah. Yeah.

00:19:09
Speaker 3: Even if Martin Prez makes the roster, it's probably for a million dollars million and a half, and not only the rotation, but the Braves probably want to carry a long man of some kind in the bullpen. It could be it could be Martin Prez. It could be Joey Wentz. I mean, it could be Bryce Elder if they don't want to risk losing him. You know, we'll see you got.

00:19:30
Speaker 1: You just set ups up for a teach you didn't even know. You didn't know what's gonna happen, Scott, you had no idea.

00:19:35
Speaker 2: What was going to happen.

00:19:35
Speaker 1: Here, we've got a mail back question that we buried and didn't use recently. I'm asking you it right now because it's on that topic. Ready, Okay, let's do it. It's from It's from Tarren Edgecombe, who says, how much of a chance would you give Bryce Elder or Joey Wentz of making the opening day roster. Obviously we can't know the answer to this because it depends on a lot of different factors. Part I thought it was very very relevant to what you just because you're right, like, there's so much uncertainty, and I'm still going to give you time to think about your answer, Scott. There's so much uncertainty between Grant Holmes, Ronald A. Lopez, potential free agent Picture X, whether it's Framber or Bassett or Gilida or whoever, or none of the above and now you're throwing more Team Perez even but Elder and Wentz have no minor league options. So it's either they're the fifth starter, or they're in the bullpen, or they're dfaide, or they're traded. Those are the four options for these two guys. So long wind up. How much of a chance what one of them? Both of them, none of them? What's your best thought about? Like, I mean, again, this is very unscientific on February first, but like it's an interesting topic.

00:20:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, So the chance that either Bryce Elder or Joey Wentz is on the roster opening day roster, I'm gonna say like seventy percent, But then one of them are both one of them, I don't.

00:21:01
Speaker 2: Think you can.

00:21:01
Speaker 3: I don't think you can get both of them on the roster.

00:21:04
Speaker 2: I agree with that.

00:21:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, But for whatever reason, the Braves like to keep Bryce Elder around and why why?

00:21:14
Speaker 1: By the way, I've made plenty of fun of Bryce Elder in the past. I do think there's a reason, like to keep him around if you can. He is a guy that can. He's a major league pitcher. I don't think he's a particularly good one, but he's probably got a little bit too mucheap for me in the past, so I'll soften my stance a little bit on this one. Like we have seen Bryce Elder go out there and throw six shutout innings before, we've also seen him get absolutely blasted and in the fourth inning Brian Snitker is walking out to the mound because the Astros have scored nine runs.

00:21:43
Speaker 3: Like, there's everything in between for Elder. But I do think that between Elder and Wentz, I think the Braves and Anthopolis, who really prioritize depth, will want to keep one of those guys around. You know. Joey Wentz was interesting last year. He got off to that fantastic start with Atlanta off the scrap heap, but then in the last month things went kind of sideways. His era was like eight in his last handful of appearances, but his underlying data was actually pretty strong. He had like a FIP and an ex FIP and an expected ray in like the upper threes, but his era was double that. So I don't really know what to make of Joey Wentz. He's a journeyman at this point. He's been right on the cusp of the majors, but really hasn't been good enough. But to answer the question, I would lean towards Bryce Elder because of the familiarity. He has a rubber arm. Maybe in a bullpen roll Bryce could increase his velocity a little bit and throw that slider that has been effective at times. Maybe Elder is like your eighth man who can eat multiple innings, and if he's throwing the ball well out of the bullpen, he could go an inning or two in middle leverage or even high leverage if you had to. That would be my guess.

00:22:54
Speaker 2: What about you?

00:22:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one where I will be reading the tea leaves from what is said by wat Weiss. If Alex never talks about like what they make of these guys, what's been reported, maybe I Bomy gets something down there. I know there's some flux, there's a new agency writer all that stuff. Because Whence has experience in the bullpen and Elder does not, Elder's had one major League appearance of the bullpen once?

00:23:20
Speaker 2: Is it's seventy eight of those? Does that matter? Maybe not?

00:23:24
Speaker 1: Because I think you're right. I think there's a world where Elders stuff plays up a little bit. He does have that one pitch that's his best pitch that you could probably throw more out of the bullpen perhaps once he's lefty. Does that matter at all? I don't know, but that's a I'm not trying to copy, I promise. It's like so hard to answer without knowing what they're going to do, what they're willing to do with Lopez and Holmes, Like forget for a second, forget Framber, Gallon, Bassett, whatever, Please sign on those guys. But if they don't, are are they willing to have Lopez just being the bullpen? Are they willing to have Holmes being the bullpen? Carson Waldrup? Is he just penciled into a spot in rotation? Like there's always end of course, there's questions at the end of rotation, to the point where it's like hard to answer between Elder and Wentz. I'm kind of with you if you do the math of it all, maybe a little bit lower, but like I would go about fifty percent though that one of them is on the team, because they could just be in different roles and Wiss we haven't seen whist that is he gonna want a long man.

00:24:30
Speaker 2: I would want a long man.

00:24:31
Speaker 1: Like the Josh Tomlin memorial role whatever, you want to pick your old or one of our old friends. But like, oh, but at the same time, what if that's grand Holmes.

00:24:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, it could be.

00:24:44
Speaker 1: And if it is, like, then you really don't need Elder or Wentz. And could you sneak Joey Wentz? Could you df Joey Wentz and bring him back to Gwinette? I think maybe I think Older might get claimed. I think Elder is like.

00:24:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think like Elder has been productive enough over the years that somebody the Chicago White Sox, who probably are looking for innings, or the detro you know, pick a bad baseball team, and that's honestly, that's probably Elder's like death.

00:25:10
Speaker 1: I don't mean that in a negative way, but like he should probably be a major league starting pitcher, just like a fourth or fifth on a not so good team. That's kind of what I think Bryce Older's level is. But look, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe maybe they'll put them in the bullpen this spring and they'll be like, huh, Bryce Elder might play up a little bit, And that's definitely possible to me. I'm not crossing that off. So I appreciate the question. I wish we had a more straight ahead answer. I think we're both in the camp of like probably one of them. Uh, it's just hard and just by math, the chances go down if they sign one of the pictures. If they signed Framber or Bassett, everyone's down a pig. So by proxy, those guys get down in the pig. Yeah, because look, I mean the people that always yell at us for one to start a picture, they're gonna lee, They're gonna do the thing with the name of every on a list, my favorite thing. And then it's like, whoa Renaldo Greg Holmes is our seventh starter. It's like, well, yes, but also he's gonna be in the bullpen.

00:26:09
Speaker 3: Or whatever, so we'll.

00:26:11
Speaker 2: Stop talking about this.

00:26:12
Speaker 1: But I thought it was interesting to kind of bring up now because it is kind of related to Martine Perez. I don't know if, in fact, I do know Martin Perez makes no sense of the bullpen. In my opinion, I think he is a starter only, whereas I could at least see a world where Elder or Wentz are in the bullpen.

00:26:31
Speaker 2: So sure, yeah, and no options.

00:26:33
Speaker 1: If they had options, I can guarantee you Alex would just be like all right, seeing Bunette. We'll call you back up later.

00:26:39
Speaker 3: Yeah, but they don't have opositions this time around, so we'll see. Yeah, especially early in the year, Like you, pictures are usually a little more restricted in the first couple of weeks of the season. If pick a picture in the rotation is just getting schlacked in the first couple of weeks for the Braves, I think Walt Weis will want to get him out of the game. You don't want to push somebody to one hundred pitches just for the sake of eating one hundred pitches on April ninth, when you have one hundred and fifty games ahead of you. I just I think that it makes sense to carry a long man. It could be Elder, it could be Once, It could be someone else they sign up the scrap heap. It could be Holmes in a hybrid role. I mean, there's these are It's a storyline, to be sure, It's one of the real storylines for spring training for.

00:27:19
Speaker 1: The Braves, other than injury updates, which I know Steven and Sean covered last week a little bit on the show. The number two thing I'm looking for, as far as like public comments and public reporting is like all the stuff about this this kind of picture. Yeah, Holmes, Lopez, even Waldrip, who I know, Like people are like, there's a world of wich he's in triple A. Like I'm not saying that's gonna happen, but that's like a non zero chance.

00:27:45
Speaker 3: So I will say this, I think because of the options, I think there is a higher probability that Bryce Elder is on the opening day roster than Hirston Waldrop.

00:27:56
Speaker 2: And that's not baby.

00:27:58
Speaker 3: That is not because Bryce Elder is a better pitcher than Herston Mardrips. But you can send Hurston to Gwinnette, you probably cannot send Bryce Elder to Gwinnette. And just knowing how this team likes to operate, I really do think that Waldrip is probably going to get squeezed, even if it's not fair to him. He could have a great spring, it's it's not going to be fair to him. But having options this time of year is a curse for players who probably could be on the roster but don't have to be on the roster. I think Waldrip is probably going to be the poster child for at this spring, even if he's probably going to find himself back with the Braves, and I mean it could be weeks into the season.

00:28:37
Speaker 2: Quite honestly, I.

00:28:38
Speaker 1: Feel like every spring we have to explain that to people that it's not necessarily who's the better player. It's kind of like deo options or don't you Alex is big? Maybe to his detriment, I kind of. I think he's right about this most of the time. But Alex really really likes to go down the rabbit hole of maximum flexibility with options and things, and that leads you to something like that. While I'm not sure I would go as far as you just did, I think it's very reasonable the point you're making, like, no one should be shocked if Herson Walter IP is not on the opening day roster. Even if that sounds crazy to people right now, I'm sure it does. People are probably young at their phones or whatever. It's not because we like Kirsten Walter. It's not about that. It's that if they have if everybody else is healthy, which is a good problem to have, they start doing the math and he's like the only one that can send it to triple at literally the only one homes down of options too, like do the math everybody, So we'll see that'd be interesting. I will put a pin in that a note to follow, But yeah, watch Braineury updates and watch for.

00:29:38
Speaker 2: Like, hey, this guy's in the bullpen.

00:29:39
Speaker 1: This guy's doing it's gonna be uh a lot of moving parts in the coming days. It's going. Before we get out of here, I wanted to ask you about a couple of farm system rankings, which is not usually what you and I specialize in, and we will always admit that on the podcast. We're not prospect experts. We hope to have on the show to cover this stuff more than we do to inform us. But in the last like four days, ESPN and The Athletic which is kind of Daniel Espn, Keith Wawt the Athletic, two big names in the industry, came out with their farm system rankings, and the Braves were in the bottom five in both of them. I wasn't surprised. I don't think you were either. But it's been a talking point this winter because of like I know, Steve and I talked about perhaps the Freddy Parolta trade as a barometer of this well, like could the bres even offer this package that that landed Freddy Perarolta tell me about that. But it's just a reminder to people. While there are guys in a system that we like that Gorvidak likes, the people that cover system like that know these things. The system overall from the experts is not seen as terribly strong, and it's still pitching heavy. Yeah, and pitching is just more volatile than position players. To the Brad's credit, as we talked about with Steven and that I last week, part of this is that they've hit a lot of guys quickly. Like Drake Baldwin could still be a prospect right now, he's not. He graduated last year, was Rookie of the Year. So, like, it's a good problem to have. But did you have a reaction to bottom five and a couple of the major prospects things at this point?

00:31:17
Speaker 3: You know, I don't think it was a big surprise necessarily, And you know what, at the end of the day, defarm system rankings mean all that much, Like.

00:31:27
Speaker 1: Well, well, no they don't, but it helps. It helps that if you're number two, you'd be excited about it. I mean, you and I covered the You and I covered the Braves when they were rebuilding and they were up there in the top five a lot, and it helped them. It did help them in the end to either trade prospects or promote them, like it's better to be one than thirty. But I also see your point, like it's not an exact science, nor would I know Kylie a little bit, like he would even tell you like it doesn't mean that much, Like who's number of twenty three versus number twenty Eight's kind of like irrelevant basically.

00:31:56
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, so you know, I thought it was good to see cam Kmen is a consensus top one hundred prospect. He was in the top forty for Keith Law, which is good. Jr. Richie is also pretty close to being a consensus top one hundred guy. I think one of the big outlets did not have Richie top one hundred. But as players graduate in the coming weeks, Ritchie'll probably find himself, especially if he gets off to a good start in the miners. And then Ditty or Fintez got some love as well. Our guy did heer. I mean, it's amazing that poor kid thrown to the wolves. I still don't know what the braves are doing. That was that was.

00:32:34
Speaker 1: It was, It was a rare time when I think, even if we disagree with the Braves, we can usually explain what they're maybe thinking and like, hey, there's a rationale behind it. That was a rare time when all four of us were like, I don't really know what's going on here, and like you got Bowman making fun of him about it like every single day, and it was just this weird like cycle of And I think because of that, people have kind of memory hold Diddier like he's a real prospect, Like he shouldn't be cast aside because he got killed last year.

00:33:03
Speaker 2: He wish he wasn't ready. He's still one of.

00:33:05
Speaker 1: Their best five prospects, Like it seems like by the people that don't think's more than I do.

00:33:09
Speaker 2: So remember remember him. He's still important for sure. Yeah.

00:33:12
Speaker 3: I mean the fact they kept throwing him out there for what he made five starts before they finally pulled the plug. It was that's all bad for the kid. I mean, it's it's rare that I feel bad for a professional athlete. But I was like, dear God, get this poor kid. I don't want his confidence like permanently shaken. Get him back to Gwinett. I think Diddier will really benefit from regular starter.

00:33:31
Speaker 1: He's still twenty He's twenty years old right now. I mean I forgot, I actually forgot how young he was. I know he was young. I checked just now he's he doesn't turn twenty one until June. That's good, he was. I believe Diddyer was the youngest player in the major leagues when he was called up last summer. But yeah, so again, in the eyes of the objective prospect evaluators, the Braves did not grade out super well. At the same time, man, like the Dodgers have a top five farm system every year, who who is the last like really good homegrown player the Dodgers have developed, like it is what it is. And if the Braves have not great farm rankings, but every summer they call up Spencer Schwallenbach and Drake Baldwin and Hurston Waldrip and like, I guarantee you there's someone who is nowhere near a top one hundred prospect list who is going to get called up in June or July and will make a big impact for the team.

00:34:22
Speaker 3: It's not a perfect science. And as you said, I think the prospect evaluators and writers would tell you it's not a perfect science, but like, I'm not losing sleep over the Braves being ranked twenty six by MLB Pipeline in in farm system talent.

00:34:36
Speaker 1: No, I hope you would. I don't think you mind be saying this. I sent a text to our good friend Carls Colazo, former co host of this podcast, just to do some like dummy checks on the system at one point in the last couple of weeks, and he was just kind of like, there's some guys that the like, Like, there's some guys in the system that people like. It's just more about it's the quality. It's how close there are the majors a lot of these things and are like not for the Lake in total, but it's they're gonna lead position player heavy for the top systems, and the brands are not that the brands are pitching heavy, so it's like there's a downgrade there already. Kem Netty's like kind of far away still, he's there to no more prospect. All these things kind of matter in the rankings part of this, But it does not mean the brands are hopeless there. It's just that they are not stocked in the way they were maybe eight years ago or whatever it.

00:35:23
Speaker 3: Was, and you're really feeling the impacts now of the international free agent bank.

00:35:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, that this team.

00:35:30
Speaker 3: Because those kids are sixteen years old when they sign, while that was six years ago, seven years ago, Well, they would be prime prospect age at this.

00:35:39
Speaker 1: Well then, and they missed on one recently I think Steve talked about on the podcast, but there was one in twenty two or twenty three one of their biggest guys like already flamed out like a guard.

00:35:46
Speaker 2: I'm it's not in exact science. It's more about like do you.

00:35:50
Speaker 1: Have the resources to just keep throwing stuff at it and eventually it hit some guys. That's that's what the international market is, even more so than the college guiding in high school stocky markets, it's like, well.

00:36:00
Speaker 2: Bunch of guys and hopefully you hit one or two again.

00:36:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean you're scouting these kids in foreign countries when they're fifteen years old. I mean, go to a high school baseball showcase in America and scout the freshman games and try to pick out what kids are potential major leaguers. I mean, good freaking luck. I know they have training academies. There's more. It's more refined than that, but trying to guess what fifteen year olds are going to be good major League baseball players eight years later. I mean, the hit rate is tiny, and that's why you just kind of roll the dice. And I mean, if you hit on one every couple of years, you're coming out well ahead.

00:36:38
Speaker 1: Good freaking luck, says Scott Coleman about the prospect industry in general, which I kind of agree with. Okay, before we get out of here, our colleagues did a few minutes on this last week, but I wanted to make sure that we wait in quickly on this. A lot of the major betting outlets name your favorite one, DraftKings, FanDuel, whatever it is, out with their over unders relatively recently on win totals, and you know, it's a big cottage industry people. It informs projections all these things. The Braves are projected to win, like eighty eight and a half, eighty nine and a half games, that's their overunder.

00:37:17
Speaker 2: Do you have a reaction to that? Did that seem right to you? It seem low to seem high?

00:37:20
Speaker 1: Like did you have an initial like, oh, were you surprised?

00:37:23
Speaker 2: Is that what you thought?

00:37:24
Speaker 3: Like? What was your thought when you saw that feels about right, like, yeah, eighty eight wins. I mean, it feels like everything is on the table for this year's Braves team. If you tell me right now that in October, this team just won the NL East and is looking good for a World Series run, I'd believe you, Like sincerely, I would believe you. If you tell me in early October that the offense continued to be maddening and they had another bad luck year of injuries and they missed the playoffs, I believe you. I'd be disappointed, I'd be really disappointed, but I would believe you. I think everything in between. I could see them sneaking into the playoffs. I could see them comfortably being in the playoffs. I could see them making the playoffs and then flaming out in the first round as they have done the last few years. I really do feel like the range of outcomes for this team is enormous, and I am sincerely hoping for a bounce back year. I don't know if we can do another one sixty two of just the absolute pain that we have had to talk about on this podcast since I mean, really, what like May of twenty twenty four at this point. But I really do hope, God Willing, the entire pitching staff won't be hurt again. They're going to have some more consistent consistency in the lineup. Like there's reasons for optimism here. But I mean, where are you at with this game? I mean, let me ask you, Brad, I hand you a million dollars eighty eight eighty eight and a half wins for the Braves free free house. Bet million dollars over under eighty eight and a half wins for the Atlanta Braves next year.

00:38:59
Speaker 1: I would ask if I can wait until I see if they sign a picture that wasn't only the options you were giving me. The house house does not wait for any house does not wait for me. I think I would lean I think I would lean over. I don't like it, though, that means it's a good for me. It's a good number. I I think it. If you maye project the Braves wintle, it might be literally like it might be literally eighty nine, which means I lean over. I think it bounce backs coming. I thought that was gonna happen before this winter, and I've liked the winter so far. I haven't like, I don't give it an a plus, but I think it's been a good winter they've added well. The loss of Kim hurts some of the updated projections or discussions about I'm still like my guards up on the injury timelines that have been floated out there on Gosaswick Murphy, but if we assume he's out for a while, that stuff's all downgrades on some level. Do I believe the bread are going to sign a starting picture between now and March first? I hope they do, but I wouldn't bet my money on that, if that makes sense, So like.

00:40:10
Speaker 2: I wouldn't want to have the under.

00:40:12
Speaker 1: I think the upside of his team is still like a high nineties kind of win team if it comes together.

00:40:17
Speaker 2: We've seen them do that.

00:40:20
Speaker 1: But I also wouldn't like be telling people to run out and bet their money on the over, you know what I mean? Like I do a lot of pre season over under like recommended bets content on my Atlanta Hawks coverage, and I usually have a couple of things where I'm like pretty confident, not like tell people spend their money, but I'm like, hey, I like I really actually like proactively like this whatever it is, Awards bat or something like that.

00:40:45
Speaker 2: I don't have that feeling about the Braves over under.

00:40:47
Speaker 1: I think I would be like, all right, ninety wins, Sure, I'll take the over if you make me bet, but my favorite, honestly, my favorite NL East over under. I like the Phillies under, I run. I would take my I take the million dollars you gave me, and bet on the Phillies under versus anything with the Braves.

00:41:05
Speaker 2: How about that.

00:41:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually kind of agree with you. I'm kind of out on the Phillies. I think the Mets are If I had to pick a team that was not the Braves to win the division, I would pick the Mets today.

00:41:17
Speaker 2: Yep.

00:41:17
Speaker 3: But it's close. And it also it stinks that I think, objectively, three of the six best rosters in baseball are arguably in the NL East, and one of them is also in the NL West. And there's probably a couple of American League teams sprinkled in there too, so it's going to be a dogfight. I think it reinforces why we want to see the team go out and add another starter in the next couple of weeks, because it really will elevate both the ceiling and the floor for this team. But yeah, it should be. I mean, it's going to be a real fight in the East. I have a hard time seeing any of these three things, three teams just running away with this thing by you know, mid mid September. If it's all just basically ceremonial at that point, I would be surprised. And really the entire National League outside of the Dodgers without a budget. I mean, it feels like the difference between the Braves, the Mets, the Phillies, the Cubs, the Padres, the Brewers, like you can make a real stonefaced argument for any of those teams as like the second best team in the National League is going to be really close, and as always, it's going to come down to who can stay healthy, which is something the Braves have absolutely not had on their side the last two years.

00:42:31
Speaker 2: But also just how does the ball balance?

00:42:33
Speaker 3: How do you do in one run baseball games? That's something the Braves were god awful in, especially early last year when they were still technically kind of in it. You would like to think that's going to balance out, just baseball being baseball, but sometimes just run into bad luck. And I really hope the Braves being more complete of a team and a deeper baseball team, that those are going to kind of balance out and get the Braves back towards the top of the East.

00:43:00
Speaker 1: Agree unsurprisingly if you listen to the show, but occasionally we don't agree, just not so much today.

00:43:06
Speaker 3: That's fine. We will do our Arizona Michigan segment in about a month.

00:43:12
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I'll take a I'll take Final four weekend for that would be fun for us, but we're not fun for us either.

00:43:18
Speaker 3: One.

00:43:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, plenty of content to come about on college basketball in the future if you are into that sort of thing. But yeah, this is a it's a podcast that's February first. I'm excited about baseball. We're getting there, not quite there yet, but we're getting there. And I do think that there's legitimately stuff to watch for Like I. On one hand, it'd be nice if the Braves didn't have uncertainty and they just had this like gauntlet of a roster that was like locked in.

00:43:46
Speaker 2: That'd be nice.

00:43:47
Speaker 1: On one hand, it'd be boring for content. The Brads don't really have that. They have some stuff that's locked in for sure. We understand what what the line up looks like for the most part, but there is some There are some storylines to follow in the next month, six weeks, seven weeks, eight weeks, and we'll be here throughout all of that to cover it for you in detail. If you hate it or whatever, so Scott, anything else you want to say before get out of here.

00:44:11
Speaker 3: That's right. Hate listening is also encouraged, Like.

00:44:14
Speaker 1: I'm fin with hate listening. I mean, people, I don't I'd rather you'd rather you like the show. But if you don't like it, it's better if you still listen.

00:44:21
Speaker 2: That's right.

00:44:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, yell at your radio as you are commuting to and from work if you if you don't love us. But as Bred said, hopefully with baseball on the horizon, we have some good exciting content on the horizon, of course, I mean the off season. We really try to bridge the gap. We try to have a couple of shows every week, but podcast is just so much more fun during baseball season, at least when the team is good. So we'll be here. If you're a new listener, welcome aboard. If you're a longtime listener, thank you for sticking with us through the off season. And I mean, shoot, less than ten days, we will have Atlanta Braids down in Florida camp and a couple days after that, the whole team will be there, and maybe they'll have a couple more new faces between now and then, but nonetheless we'll be here to cover it all absolutely.

00:45:05
Speaker 1: So please subscribe to Hammer Territory anywhere you find your podcast. Just search for Hammer Territory, Apple, Spotify, YouTube, et cetera. Follow the show on social media as well. But I would say this but if you are a YouTube subscriber already thank you. But if you're not here for listening on audio most of the time, just subscribe on YouTube. It definitely helps us to raise the profile of that channel. Algorithms and all that fun stuff help us grow the podcast. So do us a solid like and subscribe on YouTube and vice versa. If you're a YouTube watcher, please subscribe and download on an audio platform.

00:45:36
Speaker 2: Choice that helps us and hopefully you want to help us a long way.

00:45:40
Speaker 1: Scott think for being here. Everybody else will have more talfent later on this week. Stay tuned, subscribe, we'll see everybody next time.