539: Mailbag 9/2/21

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachersa J J Zacherson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyeson, the editor in chief at fandle and at Number five dot com, in this episode five and thirty nine of the Late Round podcast on many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in, Hey, football fans. The twenty twenty one NFL season is right around the corner, and Fandel is giving fans the opportunity to get in on the action by playing fantasy football. Right now. Fandal has daily Bestball fantasy drafts that you can compete in. Pick a league with your desired amount of teams, draft your squad, and compete for prizes. All you have to do is head over to Fandel dot com to get started. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the Fandle app for more details. Today's a mailbag show. There's a lot of great questions. Let's do it. The first question this week is from at J Conro, what do we make of Gus Edwards? Is he a cell? Because the Ravens are contenders and will do what the Rams did and trade for a back like David Johnson or a hold because he's a stud stay golden, JJ. Okay, let's talk about this whole Gus Edwards situation. I feel terrible because literally just last week on this show, I talked about Gus Edwards ceiling if something were going to happen to JK. Dobbins, and something did Dobbins towards ACL He's now done for the year. Sometimes my job makes me cringe, but I've got to move on. I was drafting Gus Edwards a good bit before this injury because, as I noted in the Players to Avoid episode, I wasn't convinced the Ravens would just simply give JK. Dobbins this insane role in the offense. No team has split their backfield up more than the Baltimore Ravens since Greg Roman took over as offensive coordinator. Edwards was going to be the one B in that backfield. Now, I'm prefacing with that to show you guys how a shift in the market in dramatic shift the way that you view a player. Edwards went from someone I was getting in a ton of spots to someone I'm likely avoiding now at ADP. Why because the ADP has shifted. Edwards is in a spot similar to the spot that JK. Dobbins was in, where he's likely to lead that backfield and see a lot of goal line work. But there's still plenty of concern about what the pass catching role is going to look like. And it's even more concerning than what we saw with JK. Dobbins because Edwards has not shown to be much of a pass catcher. He caught sixteen total passes during his entire collegiate career. He has eighteen receptions in his three years in the NFL. Baltimore, meanwhile, has been the most run heavy team in the league over the last two years. That's with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. They ring twenty fifth and twenty ninth and running back target share over this time, so they're a run heavy team and they don't target running backs very often. Now, Edwards ADP won't get as high as Dobbins was, But for the same logic of why I wasn't on JK. Dobbins this year, I'm not in on Edwards. The argument that Edwards shouldn't be ranked that much lower than Dobbin's because edwards competition is now worse than Dobbins competition was in that backfield. Gus Edwards is tougher competition than Tyson Williams, and I don't have Edwards ranked dramatically lower than where I had JK. Dobbins. It's just that I wasn't high on Dobbins, so I'm not that high on Edwards. We analyze the player, we analyze the player's situation, and we analyze the market around that player. Right now, I don't totally agree with the market with Gus Edwards because I like the wide receivers who go in that range where he's being drafted, and I'm basing that not necessarily off of where I have Edwards ranked at RB twenty three versus where ADP has him ranked. I've done a lot of drafts since that injury occurred, and I haven't drafted Gus Edwards once. That alone tells me that I'm lower than the market. And reports have said the Ravens apparently like their running back room. Maybe that changes, but I also don't think there's an obvious running back out there who would take over the Gus Edwards role or be a better fantasy asset than Gus Edwards. And like I said on Twitter when this injury happened, Tyson Williams is the back to add off the waiver wire. He's the new Gus Edwards. Justice Hill is more of a pass catching back and that's really not something that you want to target in a Raven's offense. That just won't bring a lot of volume through the air to running backs. So my overall stance, I was very into Gus Edwards before the injury, and I'm not anymore. I know that seems counterintuitive, but has everything to do with the market. This test question is from at Stop Loafing based on my Fantasy league ADP for PPR leagues where Heem Mostard is now going ahead of Trey Sermon. Wouldn't this now mean Mostard is the running back to draft based on the ambiguous RB one theory. Also, do you see this as a flaw in that analysis that a late ADP change could change the takeaway? Okay, so if you haven't been around the Late Round podcast this offseason, you might not know what the ambiguous RB one theory is. Ambiguous RB one theory states that when you're looking for ambiguous backfields to target in your draft, you should be attacking middle round team RB ones who have teammates who are also being selected in the middle rounds. So, for example, Chase Edmonds versus James Connor, you should prefer Chase Edmonds because he's the team's RB one by average draft position. Historically, those RB ones they've worked out and hit at a much more significant rate than the RB twos. I think what's being missed, and what I clearly haven't communicated well given the questions that I get around this theory, but I think it is being missed is that this theory isn't everything. It was a subset of something bigger that I was analyzing. It's just simply a piece of the puzzle and finding breakout running backs. There are other pieces defining these breakout backs, like, first and foremost, we should be targeting ambiguous backfields, not backfields with clearcut starters. We don't want handcuffs. We also want pass catchers. Those are the things that are just as important as the ambiguous RB one theory, because those are the traits that break out running backs typically share. I've said from the very beginning with the ambiguous RB one theory that ADP data is going to fluctuate depending on the source, and that data is going to even fluctuate within the same source. I mean, we know this, right. We know that players rise and fall in ADP all the time. When I checked my fantasy league's ADP data just a couple of weeks ago, and that's where I sourced the data for the studies I did on breakout running backs, Trey Simmon was being drafted ahead of Raheem Mostard. Since then, that's flipped when we have situations where there's a chance ADP flip flops or better yet, when we're seeing ADP flip flopping that we know we can't have as much confidence in the theory with that particular backfield period. That doesn't mean that we ignore the other aspects of spotting breakout running backs, though, Like because Raheem Moster is the RB one in that backfield versus Trey Sermon number one, it doesn't mean I'm automatically favoring Mostard over Sermon. But it doesn't mean I'm going to avoid Sermon altogether either. Because one of the main things we know with breakout running backs is that they come from ambiguous backfields, and the forty nine ers backfield is ambiguous. We have to remember that any theory or any study that I'm doing that leads to a recommendation, it's based on probability, not certainty ambiguous RB one theory. Running backs have historically had like a twenty five percent hit rate, and it's in a small sample size. So if we assume that rate is slightly inflated because of the sample size, and then we recognize that this is a slightly easier thing to do in hindsight than in real time, then the numbers aren't as glaring. Now, don't get me wrong, they're still glaring. I'm not backpedaling here. I'm not saying don't utilize the theory. I'm saying that this is how probability works. We shouldn't be drafting these running backs simply because they're the RB ones on their team by adp with a teammate who's also being drafted in the middle rounds with them. I mean, historically, if you want to talk about sample sized middle round RB ones do indeed outperform middle round RB twos. If you have an RB one from a team and you have an RB two from a different team, that RB one has hit at a better rate. But we shouldn't just sit here and ignore the pass catching potential of that running back, the team situation, and all the other factors that we look at when deciding to draft a player or not. With the forty nine ers backfield fluctuating in ADP the way that it is, i'd say there's no longer an obvious choice there from the perspective of the ambiguous RB one theory. If you're in a lot of leagues, I'd recommend that you draft one of those running backs a lot, because there's a ton of upside and we know they fit some of the criteria that we generally are looking for in spotting breakout running backs. I've gotten a ton of both Raheem Mostert and Trey Sermon this year, but this has narrowed things down to basically Chase Edmonds and Javonte Williams. It seems like in hindsight there may be more, but right now there's not. It's at least not obvious, but hopefully this clears things up once and for all. I'm getting so many questions about this theory, and I just want to be as clear as humanly possible. I'm excited about what the data and the theory says. I'm excited about the theory itself. I think there's a lot of intuitive logic baked into it, and that's always a plus. Just don't let this one single thing overshadow all the other things that I've talked about when looking for breakout running backs, and don't let it overshadow the player himself. I may be into finding trends and being a strategist within fantasy football, but I'm not dumb. Player analysis is important too. This asks questions from at burnsall what effects would a transaction limit have on your draft strategy? I e. Only thirteen AD drops in a season. I'm in a league where you pay actual money for your players on waivers. I don't love it, but it's a nice little wrinkle in leagues like this. I just play it safer because the waiver wire isn't nearly as much of an extension of my roster as it otherwise would be. I'll spend up more to get a quarterback. For example, maybe instead of going with a player like Justin Fields and then streaming until Justin Fields is the starter, I'll get someone like Ryan Tannehill. With Justin Fields, I may be more inclined to spend up at tight end as well. I take a slightly safer approach overall, because I don't have the waiver wire to depend on. If you only get thirteen ads, then I'd say it's one of the rare instances where handcuffing actually makes sense too. And I hate that I just admitted that this SYS questions from at pitt to the With the recent Sutton rise in rankings post third preseason game, are you walking back any of the Judy hype at all? No. I think both players can be fined in that offense and have good seasons. It's not crazy to think that we could look back on this season and see the two of them combined for like a four forty five percent target share in that offense. I think Judy should mesh well with Teddy Bridgewater's style, and I think that he's going to out target Courtland Sutton if they're both healthy. But it wouldn't surprise me if Sutton still comes close to finishing with as many Fantasy points because of the type of targets that he gets and the red zone threat that he is. So No, Sutton looking good doesn't make me feel different about Jerry Judy's breakout He's still a strong breakout candidate. Desas questions from at gark Shark. HEYJJ love the show. Thanks. I hear a lot of analysts who are down on Kyle Pitts because he'd have to have the best rookie tight end season of all time in order to return on ADP. But if the Falcons use him as their legit wide receiver too, doesn't that justify where he's going in drafts? Thanks? Yeah, I don't really understand the historical tight end argument for Kyle Pitts because he's very clearly as a prospect, he's very clearly not a historical tight end. We haven't seen a tight end get drafted in the top five of the NFL drafts nineteen seventy two. And what's funny is one of the two players to get drafted at pick five was Mike Ditka, who had the best rookie tight end season ever. He almost had eleven hundred yards and twelve touchdowns during an era where we didn't have nearly as many pass attempts. Guys, Kyle Pitts is not a TJ. Hockinson type prospect, and Hockinson was and is great. That's not a knock on him. Pitts is just entering the league with an entirely different skill set, and that's being recognized in fantasy drafts. It's fine if you'd rather not get Kyle Pitts where he's going, but I certainly understand the logic. I understand why he's going where he's going. I've gotten him in some redraft leagues. He's got a very high ceiling right away. This has questions from at f F underscore CEO. I regrettably missed your James Robinson advice last year. Is there anyone your models love this year that is still going nearly undrafted? The James Robinson thing isn't going to happen very often. It was the perfect alignment of me and my model liking a player and that player walking into a situation where he had a real opportunity to showcase his talent. I don't think we're gonna get a rookie running back like that this year. The one guy who I kept calling out during the draft process is my favorite late round target. That was Kylon Hill because he looked good in my model, he had good size, and he was also a really good pass catcher. That's a combination I'm always looking for because it shows versatility. That could be an early down back. They can also be a third down back, a workhorse if you will. But obviously Kylon Hill is buried on the Green Bay death chart. Now, had he landed on a team like Atlanta, I would be all in. And we've already seen him showcase his talent in the preseason. He's good. I just don't think that we have that kind of James Robinson's situation here in twenty twenty one. This as question is from at Little Denden thirteen. I'm a zero RB and hero RB stan. But there are so so many mid wide receivers Judy Claypole, DeVante Smith and late wide receivers Jacoby Myers, Terras Marshall, Elijah More, et cetera that I like a lot. If I were to pivot this year, do you prefer the early tight end quarterback or additional running backs? The answer to this is that it depends if you decide to not draft wide receivers early this year. It just depends on where you are in your draft and who's available. I don't want to say absolutely, get a tight end because you might not be in the right position to do that. I'm totally open to getting a tight end early. Maybe that helps. I just think that you need to be more flexible than saying I'm getting an early tight end no matter what. And I can also tell you that I'm more inclined to get a tight end early than a quarterback early. I've been getting tight ends in the first five rounds at a much much higher rate than a quarterback in the first five rounds. But I'd also ask that you rethink this. It's important to remember that how we view players before the season starts, that's not always right. Every year people say wide receiver so deep, and then every year it's not. I feel like I talk about this each season, but the episode on League Winning Players, episode three hundred and seventy nine, that one really spells this out. The vast majority of league winning wide receivers are coming in the early rounds. You're going to have an easier time finding running backs in the middle in the late rounds who are gonna hit than wide receivers. It may not look that way on paper right now, but this is how things generally pan out. We shouldn't be over confident in our projections. Like guys, I do this for a living. I feel confident that I know more about fantasy football than ninety nine percent of the population, probably more. But I fully recognize that even though I really like Jacoby Myers, he's an undrafted player who doesn't have a big sample size. With Mac Jones, he doesn't have any sample size. I recognize that Terris Marshall, even though I'm obsessed with the talent, I recognize that he very easily could be the fourth option on that team and not be very relevant in year one. I recognize that Chase Claypowle could still lose work to Juju Smith Schuster, that Devonte Smith won't hit because Jalen Hurts is not a good passer, that Elijah Moore just doesn't live up to the hype. Like I love each of those wide receivers, and I've drafted a ton of those wide receivers, but you can't just assume that they're all gonna work out. And as each one doesn't work out, your roster all of a sudden has a bigger wide receiver problem than you expected. Your league settings and all of that matters for this discussion of course, I'm just saying to not be over confident in your ability to find those guys. This last questions from at Spokes and Beer. With the tight end landscape as bad as it is, who are some middle round guys you are targeting? There are not a lot that fit your breakout criteria. No, there really aren't a lot, But I've noted that on the show. I think that it's smarter to fade the middle round tight ends this year. Just in general, I would much rather have John hus Smith at his ADP than Dallas Goddard or Tyler Higbee at THEIRS, those types of players which just don't hit at that high of a rate. I talked about that in the Bold Predictions episode, and there's a more substantial opportunity cost in drafting them. So I'm very much a drafter who's just gonna throw some darts late at the tight end position if I'm not able to get one of the top six tight ends. The last question this week is from at eat Scrapple. Do you think Sam Darnold is capable of sustaining four Fantasy relevant skill position players. If so, shouldn't his ADP be higher? If Terris Marshall blossoms who suffers most. Thanks love the pod. So to answer the Sam Darnold question, Yeah, I think that he could sustain four relevant pieces in fantasy football. It just depends on your definition of relevant. Do I think Dj Moore, Robbie Anderson, and Terris Marshall could all be top twenty five players all while Christian McCaffrey being RB one overall. No, that's highly doubtful. But could Dj Moore finishes like a top twenty guy, Robby Anderson top twenty five, and maybe Terris Marshall top forty. Yeah? I think that can happen. And that doesn't mean that Sam Darnald will be this ultra relevant passer in fantasy football. Look at Teddy Bridgewater last year. He sustained some good fantasy assets. And I know that Christian McCaffrey is back, but Mike Davis was good in fantasy football last year too. That doesn't mean that Sam Darnald is automatically going to be good. And one tip I have with this kind of question, when you're thinking about how things could go down for a particular team, try your best to not think in absolutes. When I go to Twitter and I say that I like Terris Marshall as a later round pick. People come back and they say, oh, that means that you must not like Robby Anderson and DJ Moore. But that's not true. I'm playing out scenarios with my draft selections. There's a scenario in which Terris Marshall emerges and it does really hurt DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson. But there's also a scenario where Tarris Marshall doesn't emerge and DJ Moore and Robby Anderson are able to do what they did last year with more touchdowns. By ranking Marshall higher than the consensus and still having Anderson in more ranked where everyone else has them ranked, I'm recognizing a path to relevancy for Marshall. My rankings don't have to reflect that lower than fifty percent probability outcome because he's a late round pick. As I like to say, we're throwing darts there. If you're drafting a lot of teams, you should be thinking about these different paths to relevancy. It wouldn't make sense for me to go all in on Terras Marshall becoming this force as a rookie. I mean, I hope to God that it happens. But that doesn't make sense logically because if I locked that in, if I said Terris Marshall is going to dominate, then I'll never have Robbie Anderson and DJ Moore and my other fantasy teams when it's not hard to see them having great seasons if Terris Marshall is just average. This is the way my brain works with fantasy football. I think in range of outcomes. I don't think that I have all the answers with my projections because I don't. You have to embrace variants like this, So hopefully that makes sense. It's a little tough to explain, but this is why I don't need to bump Anderson in more down my rankings when I like Terris Marshall. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've get subscribed to Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and I forgets follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Starting next week, I'll be doing four episodes per week, a fifteen transaction show, a ten trend show, an episode on Weekly Sleepers, which is really just the matchup show and then obviously the mailback episode. I'm really pumped for the season, guys, and I'm ready to win some fantasy football championships. Thanks as always for listening. Enjoy your long weekend, and I'll be back in your ears on Tuesday.