Late-Round Perspectives: Chris Harris

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Chris Harris is a former Yahoo and ESPN fantasy analyst who's now the owner of Harris Football and the host of the popular Harris Football podcast. He believes film doesn't lie, he sends fascist emails, he hates crutch arguments, and he might live on a yacht. These are his Late Round perspectives. You know, I realized after I had asked you to come on the show that we are facing each other in the Eckler Invitational semi final.

00:00:38
Speaker 2: This week, and good luck.

00:00:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's hilarious because so I gotta I have to preface this so that everyone, you know, understands what's going on here. So my team in that league is pretty trash, and I lost three of my first five picks of It's a fourteen team league, and when you lose, you know, you get injuries and stuff. It's very very rough. Right Meanwhile, meanwhile, Chris's team is just just destroying everyone undefeated. Right now, You're sitting with Josh Allen and Christian McCaffrey and Kenneth Walker and Isaiah pa Checko's hopefully gonna be healthy this week, and I'm sitting there and I'm like, please can Jonathan Taylor just play with one hand, I would be I really appreciate that. So I don't have to play Chris Rodriguez for a second straight week in this playoff. But somehow, as a seventh seed, because there's seven there's seven playoff teams in this league. Somehow, as a seventh seed, I beat Josh Norris last week, who had by far the better team. It's just one of those situations where like I didn't even think this, Like I didn't, you know, like week ten, I'm like, Okay, this team's done, Like this isn't gonna be a team that I care about. And then now I'm sitting ready to just be absolutely annihilated by you here here in Week sixteen.

00:01:49
Speaker 2: So I hope you.

00:01:49
Speaker 3: Enjoy that w this week, Chris.

00:01:52
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm trying to think of the number of times in the many, many many years that I've had an undefeated team that actually won. Hmm. I don't know that I can ever remember such a thing. Yeah, I don't know that I can. I mean usually spit the bit, Yeah, yeah.

00:02:06
Speaker 2: There's usually.

00:02:07
Speaker 1: I mean, like that's what I felt like last week with Norris, Like I legitimately because you know, this is like a fun league. We're all playing with Austin Eckler that kind of deal. And I'm like, you know, if I win this league somehow, sure, that'd be great. We all want to win. But at the same time, I'm like, I want the best teams to also do well, you know, in these kinds of situations where there's not like tons of money on the line or anything like that. And for Norris, like his team was really well put together, you know, like he did a great job. It was a really strong team. He just happened to have a Dallas stack on that team with Dak and Tony Pollard, and like things just didn't go his way. And I had like Jordan Addison who had done absolutely nothing or you know, not a lot for the last month and a half and just completely blows up. And now you know, I'm not gonna get that kind of performance against you again. That would just be insane luck and just very very unlikely.

00:02:55
Speaker 4: I had Harmon on my so Matt Harmon is the someone who put the lead together, and he was on my show Money Day and and he was like, Eckler wants you so bad in the finals.

00:03:05
Speaker 3: Bring it on, little man.

00:03:09
Speaker 4: He also said there's a there's like a there's an actual, like physical trophy they.

00:03:13
Speaker 3: Bought for it.

00:03:14
Speaker 1: Oh so he's like, oh no, now I wish I would have cared a little bit more about that.

00:03:18
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:03:19
Speaker 4: So I don't want the thing, I know. I'm like, if I win, can I send it to JJ? Yes, you can say, Look.

00:03:23
Speaker 1: Look you can send it to the person that you beat by sixty points in the semi finals if you end up winning it, I will gladly, gladly get that fourth place trophy and display it behind me. Here be a fantastic addition. But yeah, man, I'm excited for you to be on the show. You know, you and I have had a relationship for a while now, basically since you've kind of gone out on your own.

00:03:43
Speaker 2: Which how long has it been since you left ES?

00:03:45
Speaker 3: Nine years? Baby? Nine years?

00:03:47
Speaker 4: Well, I mean nine seasons. I guess eight and a half. It was twenty fifteen summer. I mean when I left, when I when I left ESPN, I don't know anybody in the business. You're allowed to when you're in ESPN, they don't let you like do other shows, right, So I put out the call and you were one of like the second person who who I think Andy Barns was probably the first because I've known him since.

00:04:06
Speaker 3: The nineties, and then you were probably the next one. Yeah.

00:04:09
Speaker 1: So I had Andy on Perspectives a couple of weeks ago, and he brought you up a little bit. We obviously just said horrible things about you, and so you know, he comes on, he talks about you, and we had talked earlier in the off season. I really really wanted you to come on the show because you know, we approach fantasy football in a little bit different ways. But I also think that listeners and you know, folks who are consuming fantasy content probably unfairly bucket some analysts in different ways in the way that we are approaching the game. But first, before getting into some of that, let's just talk about your journey so that everyone's sort of on the same page. You have been around a while, Like I said, this is this is not an age joke or anything.

00:04:49
Speaker 3: Chris.

00:04:49
Speaker 2: I promise you that.

00:04:51
Speaker 1: You just you know, I am now old within the industry, which is wild to me because I remember I was like twenty three years old when I was starting to do all this kind of stuff. But look, you've been around for a while. You know, you had stops at some really really big media companies and stuff. Just let us know sort of how you got into this space and what that adventure was like for you.

00:05:14
Speaker 4: Adventure, my god, if it was an adventure, I hesitate to.

00:05:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think that much.

00:05:21
Speaker 4: So I was in grad school for the second time. I got a creative writing and MFA and creative writing because I wanted to be a fiction writer, and fortunately worked out. I have turned into a fiction writer, but you can't make a living doing that anymore. So I was also doing some freelance writing and wound up going to Yahoo, very very briefly at Yahoo, and Brandon Funston was my boss, our mutual friend, Brandon Funston, and then Barry went to ESPN and suddenly they were building out ESPN and they said, hey, like, come to ESPN. We'll pay you with their pania and we'll put you on TV. And I was like, if a contract. And Brandon, to his eternal credit, I'll always thank him for this, he said, it's too good an opportunity.

00:06:05
Speaker 3: You need to go.

00:06:06
Speaker 4: It's fine, Like go, It's cool, And it was really really nice of him. And actually, in exchange, did Barons tell you this in exchange, I said, hey, I know this guy named Danny Barns, and that's how Baron's wind up.

00:06:16
Speaker 1: But yeahoo yeah kind of he did, Yes, he did. That was that was I think the reason that your name got brought up in the first place. And then we that's before we.

00:06:23
Speaker 2: Started trashing you.

00:06:24
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, no, I mean Baron's has been there all this time.

00:06:29
Speaker 3: My god, he really should just he should get a life.

00:06:33
Speaker 4: So then I was at ESPN for eight years and it was good, and then it was maybe somewhat less good. It just got frustrating, and so the last kind of got last couple of contracts, I was like teetering, do I want to come back?

00:06:47
Speaker 3: Listen.

00:06:48
Speaker 4: I mean, you always feel like an idiot complaining that you have a job where you're making money to go on television and talk about stupid things, really unimportant stupid things like you know, you got a so like in the vast scheme of the world, that's.

00:07:03
Speaker 3: Not a hardship.

00:07:04
Speaker 4: But the years kind of started to feel like groundhog years, where every year was the same. My responsibilities weren't going to change. There was a lot of talk about my responsibility changing never really did, and in the end I the last time around they offered, and I just said, I don't want to do it anymore. And I left and didn't.

00:07:22
Speaker 3: Leave to start the thing that I wound up starting.

00:07:24
Speaker 4: I left just to leave, like my contract was up at the end of July of twenty fifteen. And if, honestly, if it had been like February of twenty fifteen, I would be a clerk somewhere.

00:07:36
Speaker 3: I don't know what I would be doing.

00:07:37
Speaker 4: I'd be I'd be doing something else, because I doubt I would have even started my own show. But because it happened to be at the end of right prep I had written. I used to write the magazine, like that print magazine that I wrote the whole thing. I wrote all the player profiles.

00:07:52
Speaker 3: And so.

00:07:54
Speaker 4: Like that was all in my head for twenty fifteen. And so I said, all right, well, I don't know how to make up pod cast, and I don't know how to sell ads for a pie. I don't know anything. I know how to talk, that's it. And and I learned how to do it. And I said, basically like I'll give myself this season, since I have the twenty fifteen season in my head, I'll do a daily podcast. I'd had a show at ESPN that I like had to really like debase myself to get where they let me do two days a week. But JJ, I don't know if you know this, but any more than that, that would have been two podcasts. That that would have been like, can you imagine having Wow two? Who has who has the production resources to have two podcasts and a massive.

00:08:36
Speaker 3: Media at Enterprise? I can't.

00:08:38
Speaker 4: You know, if they'd been a little more on the ball, they'd have two of the whatever five most popular fantasy shows in the world.

00:08:44
Speaker 3: You know.

00:08:44
Speaker 4: But so I so I left and learned how to do all the things you need to do to make a show. And you know, my presumptive scenario was I would I would be at Nomber twelfth or something, and I would feel like, Okay, I've made a go of it. You know, seven one hundred and two people are listening, and that's lovely, but it's not enough to sustain a show. And it's a bummer because I've promised that i'd finished the rest of the show, but I already the season.

00:09:16
Speaker 3: You know, i't have to go make a bunch of more shows. But it's a failure.

00:09:19
Speaker 4: And in January I'll wind up doing something else and instead, within like three weeks, suddenly, you know, I had a really big audience. It was also twenty fifteen, like my mom didn't know what the podcast was.

00:09:30
Speaker 1: I was actually about to say that that you did that early to the point where, you know, obviously I left FanDuel a couple of years ago, and I don't think that I would have had even remotely the confidence to do that if not for someone like you and then others who have sort of gone out on their own.

00:09:44
Speaker 2: And I like, like, when you.

00:09:46
Speaker 1: Did it, it was not a an easy.

00:09:48
Speaker 2: Like for me to do it.

00:09:49
Speaker 1: It was kind of easy, Like it wasn't that you know realistically, Yeah, it was kind of a difficult decision because it's like, you know, it's a jump you're going on in your own but it's like I've seen other people succeed in doing this. I already had this backbone of the podcast and stuff already sitting there for me to help me, and I knew the kind of numbers I was doing with that and feeling.

00:10:07
Speaker 2: Good about it.

00:10:07
Speaker 1: But you doing that, when you did that, what had to have felt pretty scary and to some degree like it like I know, that you say that, like you at least you had this like ambiguity of what was going to go on in my life after leaving ESPN.

00:10:25
Speaker 4: Sure, but like I'm being truthful when I say I left to leave. Yeah, yeah, I left because it had run its course and no no offense intended to anybody there, just had run its course. It's all good, you know, it's fine, and uh, but like I left to leave, and you know I had, like I have an MBA and I have an mf ancreative writing, and like I have enough, I'm employable.

00:10:47
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll figure something out. You know.

00:10:48
Speaker 4: I was living in Amherst, Massachusetts. I owned my house, you know, like I was, I was going to probably be all right. Yeah, like yeah, so I didn't. I didn't like the The hardest part was just saying, hey, here's this job that you know, many many, many people think they would kill to have, and you're saying you're gonna leave it. And that was the scariest part. That was the thing I wrecked over. It wasn't so much to start the show, because I starting the show was much secondary thought, Like, as it turns out, you know, I should have left three years earlier, Like I should have left. You know, it's worked out, JJ, I can't tell you it's worked I live on a yacht, for heaven's sake, right, yeah, yes, yeah, I feel forget it, I live a yat but no, it it worked out well and like. But but I didn't have anxiety about the show as much as I did about just uh, I guess I'm doing this. You know, I have to listen to what my brain is telling me rather than what you know.

00:11:42
Speaker 3: The people will think he's crazy for having left that job, you know.

00:11:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Well, the kind of content that you were doing for ESPN is naturally going to be different than the kind of content that you do on your own. I mean it was the same. I probably had more flexibility and freedom with what I was doing at FANDUL, and even I felt, hey, I can do a little bit more of this, or I really want to publish this prospect guide and do more with that, where I can't necessarily do that under this larger umbrella. You definitely approach the game of fantasy football different than a lot of other analysts. And I don't say different in a bad way whatsoever. I say that in the most respectful way possible. Like, genuinely, how did you Because you know, you you look at film and break down film for those who might not be familiar with your work as much, but you know, you break down film way more than the vast majority of fantasy analysts. The vast majority of fantasy analysts are sitting in their mom's basement looking at spreadsheets, and you're you're you're on a yacht.

00:12:37
Speaker 2: You're on a yacht watching film, right.

00:12:40
Speaker 1: How did you get to the point of having the confidence that you have in your film watching ability to then go out there and say, hey, this is how I feel about this player, this is what you.

00:12:51
Speaker 2: Should do in fantasy. Where did you learn all that too?

00:12:58
Speaker 4: So I'll say, you know, I my favorite sport growing up was baseball. My first fantasy experiences were fantasy baseball, and the thing that I thought I was going to be doing probably more at ESPN. When I went there, it was probably more baseball. I was doing both baseball and football, and football hadn't really exploded yet, you know, like it was about to, but it hadn't really like lapped baseball to the extent that it would in a year or two. And the way we covered baseball was correctly, not worrying so much about the raw home run totals of the raw save totals or whatever. It was a lot more like, you know, the rudiments of sabermetrics, the rudiments of the things that were all way bad of bag average and balls and play. You know, that started to get known, and then all anybody in that space did was be like, don't worry. His batting average of balls and play is still fine. He'll be okay, you know, like, and that's now. So in other words, numbers were the answer with baseball. That was how that was your path to being a good analysts because it's such a simple, repeatable batter on pitcher, six hundred times a year kind of thing. They're just they're usually the numbers come out, and when they don't, you go, huh, that was weird. But you know it's five guys and everyone else in their numbers worked, so we're good. And and I don't mean to demean analytics and baseball. That's like that's why it works, you know, because and there are new analytics and there are different ways of looking at it, and like, I think the data is where baseball is at, so it's natural that everybody who'd been I think most people, maybe not your age, but most people like my age and a little bit younger maybe cut their teeth more doing fantasy baseball, and it was natural to start applying the way that you did analyze to fantasy baseball to fantasy football. And so I just remember, I just remember so many dumb arguments in these rooms at ESPN, going hit.

00:14:53
Speaker 3: But his yard's per carry is so good?

00:14:55
Speaker 4: Yeah, and yeah, this is before there were sensors in pads.

00:15:00
Speaker 3: But even that, I am somewhat skeptical. Love we'll get to that.

00:15:03
Speaker 4: So early on covering football at ESPN, I was like, there's something missing here, the thing that I always would hear.

00:15:12
Speaker 3: It's funny.

00:15:13
Speaker 4: Scott Fish was on my show Tuesday and we were doing waivers and we were, you know, pretty simple shit. You've done that show on my show several times, and like he goes, now this game, I watched this one. He was talking about, Oh, Chase Brown. He was like, I still would add Chase Brown and numbers didn't look good. But I watched this one and I saw him and I was like, welcome, welcome to my Because the way people talk about it is always like you know, yes, the numbers say this, but this is one that I got to see, and I think therefore, counterintuitively, this is what it looked like. And I would hear that a lot, and I would think that a lot, and eventually got to the point where I was like, you know, it would be great as if you saw everything, if you just if you just watched everything. And so at the last few years of ESPN, that's what I started to do. I started be able to watch it everything. I don't think that's that you like Baron's watches every game, Yeah, I do in course of the week. For the rest you watch every game during a week. Jim McCormick watch every game in a week. Where the difference, the craziness comes in, is that I do it by Tuesday morning. Yeah, you know, the you know, I I basically make my Monday and Tuesday shows be about that weekend's film. So you're going to have heard from somebody who watched the game on every single game by Tuesday morning, and I don't see, you know, that's really the only difference. That's the that's the main difference. And like I think as far as like how you got good at knowing when a good, when a player was good, and how you got good at knowing when a player was bad. I think your answer is probably going to be exactly the same as mine, which is that you watch enough and you just can't help it. Like you don't, you don't. It doesn't have to be like super skilled. You just go I've seen it all. I've seen every single Like, I know that guy looks different, and I think that's really all it boy was down to.

00:17:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a really good point, even through data, when you see things and you know when regression could be coming, or if a player is seeing a certain workload over and over and over again and people are getting really frustrated, I mean there's still that sort of like back of your head, Yeah, this is still going to be possible for this player, just because I've seen this play out so frequently. I think you're really correct with the like, sometimes we don't need to just answer and say this is definitively how I know, or this is the process of exactly how I know when you've just been doing it for a really long time, you know, I if you've just been watching this stuff for a while and you have a track record too It's not like you're stepping into the Fantasy space for the first time and no one's heard of you before, and you're just like, trust me, bro, I know what I'm doing here.

00:17:48
Speaker 2: You know, it's a little bit different.

00:17:50
Speaker 1: But if you have a track record of, you know, being successful and showing that success, I think that's important too. Was there was there anyone this out of curiosity? Was there anyone at ESPN? Is obviously resource wise, there's a lot at ESPN, But was there anyone there that helped you at all, like learn the game better? Or was it really just an individual journey on your end.

00:18:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, it wasn't one ninebody. It was just me.

00:18:15
Speaker 4: I mean at the time, through most of my my tenure there, Fantasy was a very ugly stepchild and to be scoffed at. Like I spent Sundays in Bristol for too many years that I.

00:18:30
Speaker 3: Don't want to remember.

00:18:31
Speaker 4: Yeah, and Herm Edwards one time in the in the war room when we were watching the games, like saw me in a nice suit because I would do TV before I would watch the games, right, and and like at the end of the season he made some like whatever Herm is what he is.

00:18:45
Speaker 3: Like you fantasy. You fantasy all this time, you've been fantasy.

00:18:48
Speaker 4: And I gotta tell you, I didn't say anything in that room, but but like you know, there was basically not a not a happy relationship really between like the real football guys and the fantasy football guys, which I don't know if it's changed, it's been a long time.

00:19:01
Speaker 3: It's possible.

00:19:03
Speaker 4: The fact that Field, who's a great guy, is both a newsbreaker and the and the fancy host is good. It probably me brings brings the bridge together and feel.

00:19:12
Speaker 3: Just a wonderful guy, like so amazing person. So yeah, I I was not aided. I was not I was not I was not aided to know.

00:19:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just curious.

00:19:23
Speaker 1: So so going back to sort of the data and film thing, let's just let's just throw this out there because it irritates the living you know what out of me. Like it's it's one of the most frustrating things with the way that people consume content and sort of bucket analysts in these certain ways and talk about analysts. There are a group of people who say, oh, you're a film guy, which sure, if you were to describe yourself, you say, yeah, I'm breaking down film.

00:19:46
Speaker 2: This is what I'm doing, and this is the way that I.

00:19:48
Speaker 1: And they'll say, oh JJ has models, like he's this this nerd Again, I'm one of the people living in my my parents' basement. But but I I really get frustrated because it's not you know, you just mentioned like it's not like I'm not watching this stuff. Because I think it's incredibly important to still go that route and still understand what you're saying. I don't want to sound like a moron when I hop on shows and I start talking about some player who doesn't the numbers don't match what I'm just seeing, right, And so I have to ask you, like, how you from like a process standpoint. Clearly you're not just ignoring numbers completely. Clearly you know what's going on from a target share perspective or what have you. How do you sort of mesh those worlds together? And how are you I know this is a really really high level and loaded question for sure, but how are you sort of bringing those worlds together?

00:20:43
Speaker 4: I mean, I probably don't as much as you do. That's the honest truth is that I probably try to be as as untainted by numbers as I physically can but of course it always works its way in I would never had you on my show if I didn't think you watched football, Like that's the whole thing. Yeah, you know you've done Monday shows on my on my show where I see where you can't do them anymore because you have a child. But you know, back in the day when you had time, when you had time, used to come on My Monday show where it was not data at all. JJ, what are three games you want to watch and we'll just talk about what happened in the three of them.

00:21:16
Speaker 3: You remember those good old days, right? Yeah? Man, of course, of course you can't do it anymore.

00:21:20
Speaker 4: I wish you could, because you're great at it, because you do watch football. So I think you're a little more of the blender than I am. Of put of marrying the two the best of both worlds, I I am not so much. I mean, of course, I'm looking at you know, the actual the actual production itself. I'm looking at Snapshare, I'm looking at target Share. I'm doing the basics. But you know, you can miss me, not you, anyone can miss me on like he reached a maximum miles per hour of this, Like I just don't just don't care. And I, you know, like I am, I'm deeply suspicious, honestly of like expected points added per play.

00:21:57
Speaker 3: Deeply suspicious, deeply suspicious.

00:22:00
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna say, other than the obvious stuff, I'm probably not marrying as much data as you are, and I'm definitely not modeling anything at all. But like anybody who is working with data models and watching football, you know, the way I view that is a very positive. I view that as you know, that's creating a rubric and then allowing the actual facts of the case to break the rubric.

00:22:29
Speaker 3: Because the.

00:22:32
Speaker 4: Biggest difference between covering baseball in this way and covering football in this way is that future past performance doesn't necessarily indicate future returns.

00:22:41
Speaker 3: It just doesn't. Like baseball it just does, and football it just doesn't.

00:22:45
Speaker 4: All the models and stuff like that, they do a wonderful job of describing what happened, But the problem is that what happened is fricking chaos. What happened is eleven on eleven madness, where if the left defensive end falls down, I don't have a way to account for that in any data. You know, Like there's a there's a ridiculous. The Denver defense in Week three against Miami given up seventy points and letting uh Devon H.

00:23:11
Speaker 3: Chan go for fifty fantasy points.

00:23:14
Speaker 4: It's really hard to get a model that doesn't go, wow, Devon A.

00:23:17
Speaker 3: Chan's amazing at football. You know, he's so good.

00:23:20
Speaker 4: Uh. And so that's why I don't mind a model that tells you that. But that's why they need the JJ. They need the person sitting in front of the model that goes, yeah, but you know, like I gotta I gotta tell you, the Denver defense is pretty bad then and now it's pretty good. And if he was playing against them now, it probably wouldn't be you know. That's that's essentially. If people didn't need you, you know, then they would just use the model. Everybody could do the same thing. The point is you put the you put the work in, and then you can go here's the model saying. However, I'm just gonna warn you I saw that and it's maybe not the complete truth.

00:23:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is exactly why I wanted to bring you on because I I feel like, I mean, you're you're sort of giving me the outlet to talk to talk about this, but I'm being honest, do it. But it's one of those things where one of the most tilting things that I see is, you know, again going back to the bucketing of you're watching film, you're the nerd.

00:24:12
Speaker 2: Okay, you know, there's these two two separate buckets.

00:24:15
Speaker 1: For some reason, film guys are always the the the the guys. Yeah, yeah, the popular ones, the ones, the ones who look awesome. But there is so much bad data analysis out there. That's my that's my problem with it. You know.

00:24:28
Speaker 2: It's it's not that data analysis is bad.

00:24:30
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously, I think data analysis is brilliantly good if you are if you know what you're looking for and you know what you're doing. I think that no greater example of this, Chris is with running backs in particular, because there are so you know, quarterbacks at least are controlling so much of the game, and they can overcome certain situation. Obviously, every player is dependent on thousands of factors, you know, whether you're talking personnel on the field, you're talking schematic stuff, you're talking even even uh way that that coaches are handling things whatever. I mean, there's just so many different factors for every single player. But the way that I've sort of broken this down, is that you know, a quarterback obviously controlling the most of a game, they're doing the most on the field. Then then the other other player because they're touching the ball thirty five plus times a game. And then you go to wide receiver for instance. And I do think wide receiver data is a little bit stickier than let's say, running back data because in order to and I'm not saying that it's perfect or flawless, but at least wide receivers, you know, in order to earn target share in order to get the volume that you have to get open and you have to do things independently of what's going on. But then again you have to fall back on scheme and you have to fall back on quarterback play a little bit, like there's still other factors involved. I go back to running back all the time, though, because there are so many things, so many things that have to go right or wrong for a running back in order for us to see whatever the end stat line is. And so you know, I can sit here and say I try to evaluate running back talent. Of course I do it both through what I'm just visually seeing and then sort of what the data saying, but I'll be honest, when I'm looking at advanced metrics at running back, I don't really care. I don't care that much about what this guy is doing.

00:26:13
Speaker 3: You know.

00:26:13
Speaker 1: I will sometimes compare Hi can Trast versus teammates because you get somewhat of an apples to apples comparison. I say somewhat because there are going to be players who are satellite backs and on the field in a lot more favorable situations than guys who are seeing stack boxes on early downs and what have you. But really, I mean, like, look at Rashad White.

00:26:32
Speaker 2: This past year.

00:26:33
Speaker 1: People were fading Rashad White, and you can fade him for whatever reason. I'm saying, the reason for fading, that's the crux here. The reason for fading was because his advanced metrics were bad last year. On the ground. You know, he was always fine as a receiver, but on the ground, his advanced metrics didn't look that good, especially when compared to a Leonard Fournette type. And the issue I had with that is, if you're going to compare him to his teammate and they look fairly comparable from teammate to teammate, maybe situation had something to do with that. Maybe there is something going on with the Bucks offensive line, And then you watched them last year and the Bucks offensive line got absolutely zero push, and they were getting zero push also at the beginning of this season, and so I think that just to wrap this all up, I think that running back in particular is just a great example of just rough data analysis that's out there. And I always tell people when I'm analyzing through data.

00:27:26
Speaker 2: Use this as a guide.

00:27:28
Speaker 1: This is not the end all, this is not the My prospect guide that I published is all analytical. The whole thing that I published is purely analytical. But you know, my model didn't love pookin Akua. But in my blurb I wrote about liking pokin Akua and not necessarily just taking what the model says and just running with it, because there's a lot more to this game than just looking at that data.

00:27:49
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean you could say it, JJ, you're fooling people. You're tricking people with data, You're hoodwinking them. It's okay, you can admit it. No, I mean, yeah, I of course I'm kidding. And I don't know. I wouldn't I wouldn't have you on my show, and I wouldn't have like a professional relationship with you if I didn't think you also understood football. The point of it is the way you feel, the way you want to shape. The beginnings of your arguments are by putting a lot of numbers into some complicated models that you've developed, and then it comes out with some thoughts. And if that were the end of the thoughts, I think your your fans wouldn't need you right right.

00:28:31
Speaker 3: But that's not the end of the thoughts.

00:28:32
Speaker 4: The most important part comes next, which is you interpreting the data, deciding that that's maybe going to trick you. No, that's I'm gonna stand by that. That seems good to me, and you're going to always going to filter it through the lens of what you've seen yourself.

00:28:45
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:28:45
Speaker 1: One of the really interesting things too, is that you know, like I said, you approach the game different than other analysts because a lot of other analysts are analyzing through data. There's a low key advantage to not then analyzing through data because you know the market and the way that people are are are drafting, if you will, especially like like rookie drafts for instance, Like, yeah, there there was a lot. Two years ago, when Chris A. Lave was coming out, I don't know you, you might have no idea that this battle even existed. Chris, So I don't. Okay, So so to this is gonna make you. This is gonna make you sick at your stomach. So two years ago, okay, so there there is so so you know, early declare status. Right, a guy either declares early for the NFL draft or he doesn't. There is some signal for wide receivers in particular who declare early, and uh, them declaring early, they're they're better as fantasy assets in the NFL. Now you can take a step back and you can then think about the narrative around that, right where Okay, you're declaring early, you're probably more talented of course, versus a guy who's declaring later. And so yeah, you would get some signal. The problem is not understanding that there is some signal there. It's then taking that and running with that to some absurd degree and then fading Chris A Lave as a result of it, you know, like a guy who you know. And that's where the modeling can really be impactful too, where a lot of people are just like looking at different inputs and they're saying, oh, he's not an early declar he's now not part of my consideration set during this rookie draft because I don't I don't need this player if he played four years in college. But you know, with the modeling, at least you're saying, this is the right, the proper way to to to wait this thing, this aspect, and then obviously layering on top what the markets saying or what other film watchers are saying and going, you know that route with it too, And it's fine to lean on other analysts and with that kind of thing. I don't think there's any problem with that if if you're not you know, uh, necessarily the best at analyzing through film and so I just it's it's crazy that, you know, there's one metric like that which there are a plethora of reasons as to why a guy would or would not. Now with nil it's completely different, you know, with with guys staying in college and stuff. But it was a really real thing and people were not drafting Chris Lave because he stayed in school for an extra year.

00:30:58
Speaker 2: It's very real. It's crazy.

00:31:00
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I will just say as I've grown in this industry, and as you know, the industry has just gotten so big, a lot of bad analysis. There's a lot of very bad ADP numbers.

00:31:15
Speaker 3: Every year.

00:31:15
Speaker 4: There are just so many dumb, bad ADP numbers that are so easy to take advantage of.

00:31:20
Speaker 3: And this year it happened to.

00:31:22
Speaker 4: Be rookies, you know, just all the rookies went went too early because and then all the all the players who were the other position, the same guy on their same position, on the same team that drafted them also were like, well, you can't you can't want ken Walker. Why would you want ken Walker? And I was like, because he's awesome. I don't know that's a good reason. So like, yeah, there's a lot of there's a lot of bad analysis out there, no question.

00:31:45
Speaker 1: So you kind of talked about your your weekly process a little bit, how you're I mean, so, Okay, Sunday happens, Sunday ends, what are you then doing? Like it's Sunday night, the game is about to start. Are you doing anything on Sunday? Or is it all after that game? I guess you're You've been on your in the West Coast most of the time throughout the season, so you have that advantage, which I'm a.

00:32:04
Speaker 2: Little bit jealous of.

00:32:05
Speaker 3: But no, it's unbelievable. I don't know how. I don't know what I was doing all those years.

00:32:09
Speaker 1: I feel that I feel that way, especially especially with kids now, where I'm like, I gotta get up at six am now, no matter what, because this is just their schedule.

00:32:17
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, I do.

00:32:18
Speaker 1: I do kind of wish that I had that extra three hours. But how how are you approaching then watching this stuff? You know after games conclude?

00:32:26
Speaker 4: Well, it starts during during games, so I'm usually behind because I'm making notes like crazy. So I would say there's two levels to film analysis. In my show, what I do people listen to my show? Who are watching this high?

00:32:39
Speaker 3: Uh? You know this?

00:32:41
Speaker 4: There's there's reviewing the game that's literally just me watching it the game. I'm not pausing it. I'm not ISO wating. I don't have any means I'm watching the game broadcast. I can't ISO. I don't you know. I can't watch all the routes that Chris Olave ran because they don't show it on the Fox broadcast whatever. So the there's the sun the stuff that I do like midweek or later in the week. That's when I'll take one player, watch everything he's done the entire season, and that's like a breakdown of that person's entire my thoughts about him, not not related to each individual game. So so Sunday I'm behind, I'm making notes, I'm watching whatever's over broadcast. I'm picking out like the most fruitful potential games to stream that that solution for streaming changes every year, but hopefully now it's on YouTube for a while because now I've got a process again, figured it out. So by the time Sunday night comes, I've usually watched six games, seven games, something like that, and it's time for me to work up, right, you know, I got to write. I'm I'm writing a lot of what I am going to say, not in full sentences, but I got to have my thoughts figured out, right, So I'm outlining. I'm figuring out what to say on the show on Monday morning, because Monday show is going to consist of all the all the games that I was able to watch on Sunday, and then and I have a guest and they pick three games, so I make sure I've watched those three games too, so I can talk about that so that that takes.

00:34:02
Speaker 3: Care of Sunday.

00:34:02
Speaker 4: I wake up very early Monday morning, five point thirty, make the show. It's usually done by like seven thirty eight, and then it's whatever I didn't watch on Sunday I got to watch in arrears. I watch them, you know, on stream them. It's usually four or five six games in time for Monday night. Then I watch Monday Night long with everybody else, and then again I've worked up what I'm going to say about those games on Tuesday, and then a lot of Tuesday show is wrapping it up with all the games you know that I didn't talk about on Monday, and then do waivers, and then from from Wednesday.

00:34:35
Speaker 3: On it's a little more of a typical grind.

00:34:38
Speaker 4: It's like, you know, you and Barons and everybody who's Pianowski, all the people who are going to watch the games. You guys just do it at a more sane pace.

00:34:45
Speaker 3: You know.

00:34:46
Speaker 4: I've I've spent like sixteen to sixteen hour days probably with nothing but football in my face.

00:34:52
Speaker 3: It's crazy. No sane person should do this. Yeah, I would never.

00:34:56
Speaker 1: I would never do that.

00:34:56
Speaker 4: No, it's so much, But I have a yacht because of it. Uh, by the way, I don't really heal.

00:35:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, everyone's clear he does not have a yacht.

00:35:10
Speaker 3: So uh yeah.

00:35:11
Speaker 4: I I from that point, you know, it's it's it's making three more shows, it's doing some film breakdown, but you know, having a guest on talk about ranks. Having from that point forward, it's more recognizable as what everybody else's routine is like. But my my Sundays and Mondays, I'm really ready for them to be over because it's a lot.

00:35:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean that is a lot.

00:35:31
Speaker 1: I can't imagine doing that to to to kick off the week, and I you know, my mine is like the the opposite basically, where I'm doing data collection early in the week, and then as the week sort of goes on, I'm watching a little bit more and more.

00:35:43
Speaker 2: And that's it's it's a little.

00:35:44
Speaker 1: Bit frustrating because my biggest podcast and column that I do is the fifteen Transactions one where I'm telling people to buy, sell and stuff, and I haven't always gotten to everything at that point. And it's just it's tough with the Fantasy schedule because everything's really really truncated to like the very beginning parts of the week. You know, you you got to get your waivers ready.

00:36:03
Speaker 2: You gotta get them done.

00:36:04
Speaker 1: People are so thirsty for him, and a lot of it is because the platforms have the default at Tuesday to Wednesday, uh, you know for waivers, And I would love if the default. It would make analysts lives a little bit easier if the default were to be, you know, Wednesday to Thursday, which is very doable.

00:36:20
Speaker 2: I don't know why it's not the default, but but.

00:36:22
Speaker 3: JJ would take my yataway.

00:36:23
Speaker 1: That would be happily exactly. So, you know, you've talked about your process a little bit. You've obviously had a track record of success. Everyone has blind spots, though everyone is not, you know, no one's perfect.

00:36:35
Speaker 2: Where do you think your.

00:36:38
Speaker 3: Where?

00:36:38
Speaker 1: Where do you think your biggest blind spot is? With the way that you approach things?

00:36:46
Speaker 3: You know? I don't. I don't.

00:36:47
Speaker 4: I don't think I could say that, oh it's definitely this kind of play or this. I don't think I have one except for except for what I'll describe it in a second, because I really really really try to go into watching every single game.

00:37:03
Speaker 3: I always say it on my show. I'm an eyeball.

00:37:06
Speaker 4: I'm trying not to come in with it saying, well, I like Josh Jacobs, so anything he does, if he lifts his little pinky, I'm gonna be like, ooh, swoon.

00:37:13
Speaker 3: Josh Jacobs.

00:37:13
Speaker 4: You know, I'm really just gonna try to be honest about what I saw in that game. And I think if you have that, if you come in with as few access to grind as possible, you will do the best job possible. But in terms of trying to predict whether something unexpectedly good that happened will continue or something unexpectedly bad that happened won't continue, you know, I think it falls back to like film model breakers. You know, it's not stat model it's like film model breakers. It's guys who aren't doing it in a way that you're really familiar with as a consistent mode of success in the NFL. Dereck Henry is my best example of this.

00:37:54
Speaker 2: And say, from a data perspective, so this is perfect.

00:37:57
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, Derek hen Well, I mean Austin Eckler's a good one. I don't know, like I think a'mon Ras Saint Brown's kind of a good one. Yeah, even though I still suspect that aman Ras Saint Brown is going to become a number two on a Super Bowl type winning offense. I still I think he's really really good, but I think he's like more like Edelman and and like there's a reason they drafted Jamison Williams because they feel like they need he. You know, you could still have Am and Rob be your number one, but maybe not a fantasy number one if you had the outside receiver.

00:38:25
Speaker 3: Let's not go down that path right now.

00:38:27
Speaker 4: But these are players whose abilities that I see on film don't usually lead to protracted success. In Henry's case, he spent like five years of his professional life with the first three quarters in like most of his games, maybe a lot of his games, if not most, floating around. It's just, you know, like a balloon trying to find a window, you know, like falling down. And he'd be at you know, seventeen carries for forty three are and you're like, yeah, this guy's bad. And then the fourth quarter, just because he is a rule breaker and is in I think the size is probably less to do with it as this guy's cardiovascular apparatus, This pulmonary apparatus must just be he is literally built different, literally built on precedent. Yeah, because inevitably he would on the twenty third carry break one. You know, it just kept happening and happening, and I kept going, it's not gonna happen. It kept happening, and so, yeah, I think maybe it's guys who who are doing it in ways that I'm not so familiar with. And usually I gotta be honest. Usually when I say someone is doing it in a way that I'm not so familiar with, usually they crap out. You know, Usually I'm right. But if I miss on guys at like on stars, on guys who wind up being you know, first, second, third round fantasy picks, it's because of that they have something that doesn't look like a traditional good player at their position.

00:39:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, and sometimes you know, like if that's happening for me from like a data perspective, let's say, sometimes you know, it's fine to just say like, this is what generally happens, uh, but this guy has been breaking this generally happens mold for a really long time at this point, and you know, we just have to recognize that this could just be a different you know, like with the Dereck Henry thing, this could just be a different scenario that I'm not going to change. You know, a lot of a lot of people see a single result and they're like, oh, you got to change your process now, Chris, you gotta, you got to you got to watch film differently. But I think it's really really important for people to understand that when there are these one off examples of Derrick Henry being Derrick Henry and having the career that he's had, doesn't mean that you're doing anything wrong, you know, like like it's it's fine to still recognize that, you know, my process has gotten me to x y z uh, this is just some separate thing that's happening that Yeah, I might be wrong about it, but I'm not going to really change the overall you know, the body of work here, because Derrick Henry has a great heart.

00:40:52
Speaker 3: You know.

00:40:53
Speaker 2: It's just it's very, very very hard for that to happen.

00:40:56
Speaker 4: Yeah, Like I would say, you know, McCaffrey for years with Carolina, Like not a dude that I would personally be giving thirty touches to in a game.

00:41:06
Speaker 3: Still not a dude.

00:41:07
Speaker 4: Like It's worked out this year and I mean I had the first pick in the Austin Eckler League, and I yeah, took him took McAffrey, he's.

00:41:14
Speaker 3: Been pretty good.

00:41:15
Speaker 4: Like, like, so, I'm not telling you that I was disrespecting her or whatever, but like, I.

00:41:19
Speaker 3: Think it's a bad path too.

00:41:21
Speaker 4: I think Christian McCaffrey would be safer, better fantasy asset if he averaged eighteen touches a game. Yeah, and he's it's you know, with when it was Carolina, it was just him. It was really you know, it was like, boy, oh boy, are you sure you want to do this? Because he's gonna get the crap beat out of him. With San Francisco, you know, he's he is taking less punishment because they have so much wide open space. But yeah, I still I still don't think I would be treating him that way.

00:41:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's get into some player takes. We've been talking to sort of theory so far. Let's let's talk some individual players. We've been talking about Austin Eckler. We've mentioned him like forty times so far throughout this conversation. He's been rough the last like month or so, especially, have you seen visually a decline in his game versus previous seasons. You said that he was a player that you've just kind of been you know, not necessarily, you know, when you watch him, seeing the production aspect and seeing how he's so good in fantasy or has been so good in Fantasy over the last three years or so, have you seen any sort of decline this season, especially maybe after that high ankle.

00:42:23
Speaker 4: I think not, honestly, Like I think if the way it's manifested itself is the way that they're choosing not to use him. And it's really hard to see on film, like what they're not doing. It's jazz, it's the notes you don't hear. So they're just they've decided clearly not to throw to Austin Eckler very much. And I couldn't very much imagine that's related to injury that he just he just doesn't really want to be in space, not doesn't want to, like his ankle doesn't want him to be in space, and and like have to make all the adjustments you have to make in space and go hard and go fast and then take hits from the side and all that stuff that happens in space. Because it couldn't be any clearer. They're not using them that way, right, It's crazy. It's like they've been the one reliable thing about Austin Nickler's whole life in the league has been Yeah, they're going to give them ten targets, and when they consistently give them three, you know, you go, huh, but that's hard to know why. All you know is it's not happening. Yeah, he's never been a great between the tackles runner. It's always been more they keep him honest kind of thing and not a huge part of his game. And frankly, another dude who's way better off when they're not giving them twenty plus touches. It's clear clear in his career is way better off. Like if they've been scrambling around for a second running back for years, trying different guys, and you know, I wouldn't say Josh Kelly. I think Josh Kelly's rookieyear, who's terrible. I think these last two years he's been okay and had some bad numbers and some fumbles that are not acceptable. Isaiah Spiller just seems like they've decided can't play because he can't get on the field.

00:43:58
Speaker 3: They just can't find another guy.

00:43:59
Speaker 4: But I gotta be honest, I'm not seeing like, oh, you know, he used to make that guy miss and he doesn't anymore.

00:44:05
Speaker 3: I mostly you know, he's also trapped in disaster space.

00:44:09
Speaker 4: You know, there's there's just no there's nobody else you're worried about, my god, And then Keenan Allen doesn't play in a game like who are you gonna key on?

00:44:14
Speaker 3: You know? Yeah, So I'm.

00:44:17
Speaker 4: Gonna say, at full health, either with the Chargers or maybe more likely with another team next year, I'm not gonna want him to be like an RB one, I don't think. But I don't think I'm gonna say, well, no, the dude's skills have completely fallen off the table.

00:44:30
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:44:30
Speaker 1: Really interesting too, And I think this gives credit to the injury speculation and that being a reason for the lack of like target shair and stuff. I mean, they've had so many injuries on that offense and the fact that it has it we haven't seen because even if you look at it splits historically, like when Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are both out, his target share spikes like crazy, right, and then if one of them are in now yeah right, and it's not now and you have to say, like, why is that not happening? And that makes sense, right, that would be a logical reason as to why another player who you know, again you could go. You could also argue with Eckler is that there's not a lot of competition going on within that offense, so defenses can very easily try to take that check down away a little bit more because they're not worried about Quentin Johnston and what he's been doing this season.

00:45:18
Speaker 4: It's true, but I would say, just like you can argue that the other way exactly, Yeah, but he should still be getting seventeen sark like that doesn't necessarily mean one argument of the other.

00:45:27
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:45:27
Speaker 1: I also think that a lot of teams defensively and schematically would would gladly just give checkdowns, and they do a lot of times.

00:45:34
Speaker 2: Versus a down the field throw to an open receiver.

00:45:36
Speaker 1: But you know, I say that because Stefan Diggs is another player who obviously has the talent, right, it's obviously there, But look at the surrounding cast with him, and they've needed a two for a really long time, you know, they they haven't had a very reliable guy there. I mean, Gave Davis has shown flashes, but he's just not that dude at all. And so I want to ask you why he's been I mean despite that we I mean, Stephan Diggs has been playing with Gabe Davis now for a couple of for a few years. It's not like this has been a new thing where they haven't had this second option. If anything, now they have at least an interesting option in Dalton Kink they can move around. I still think Khalil Shakir is not that terrible of a player out of the slot. But regardless, regardless of that, we haven't seen a stretch like this from Stefan Diggs at all, And I have to ask.

00:46:24
Speaker 2: You, is he okay?

00:46:29
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna be completely honest and say I haven't done like advanced film work and advanced what that means, Like, I haven't done the thing that I said that I do. If I go take a four game sample size and watch every route, right, I haven't done that. All I've done is been watching the game broadcast that goes along. And sometimes the hardest thing you can just figure out, have to figure out, is why the ball isn't even going to a guy. When you're watching the broadcast, all you know is wait, yeah, it's been a quarter and they haven't.

00:46:54
Speaker 3: Thrown a ball just to fun Digs.

00:46:56
Speaker 4: Right, that's troublesome but also hard to diagnose. You really do need to go back and do the Matt Harmon.

00:47:02
Speaker 3: Thing, right, Matt is reception perception.

00:47:04
Speaker 4: Matt breaks down every single route, and like, I can't do that for every player. Matt's crazy he does, so, like I will do that for Stefan Digs at some point this summer and look at this bad or this winter rather and look at this bad stretch and see if I can figure out did something go wrong? He is elderly, he's twenty nine, right, did he just turn thirty? Maybe like he's getting close he's on that border. But it I mean, if we were having this conversation five.

00:47:30
Speaker 3: Weeks ago, people will be like, what he's been unbelievable? What are you talking about?

00:47:34
Speaker 4: Right? So probably this comes down to much much more the offense, the offensive coordinator change, the sort of rededication to running to maybe a pounding into Josh Allen's head that a double coupvered. Stefan Diggs isn't someone you should be throwing to, even though it's worked for you in the past. We want you doing something else instead, realizing we should also that like the Dallas game isn't a good measure of anything because Josh Allen didn't throw the ball, Like there's no throwing.

00:48:04
Speaker 3: Not gonna blame Digs for that. There's just no reason to throw.

00:48:06
Speaker 4: They ran it eighty seven times, like they just Dellas couldn't stop it. So you know, people are gonna have to make a decision here going forward. I don't I think I would have a hard time not going down, you know, like benching stuff on Diggs and playing I don't know, like Drake London, you know, and being like yeah cool, you know, I.

00:48:29
Speaker 3: Would not be able to do that. I wouldn't be able to sleep.

00:48:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, exactly.

00:48:33
Speaker 1: I think from like an actual utility perspective, like no one's benching Stephan Diggs, you know, like like we're at the point of season where you can't you can't bench Stephan Digs, even if it's one of those things where you just it would be very tough to live with that decision, you know, if he then goes off on your bench, I mean, that's just a very difficult, you know, thing to But but I do think that when we have a very clear change in something offensively where in this case, Ken Dorsey getting fired and Joe Brady stepping in. When there's this clear like divide and change, I don't think that we should necessarily brought And you definitely did not say this, but we definitely should not brush it off as nothing, you know, like like, oh, it's just variance that Stefan Diggs isn't doing anything right now, No big deal. Well, I mean they're usings. James Cook is being targeted at twice the rate that he was being targeted. And it's literally the defining line is when they changed offensive coordinators, they're using their running backs not just in the run game, but in the passing game two more. And I think that realistically, like that kind of shift in game plan can be a little bit more forced when you're talking about the running back, where you know, running backs are just getting these cheaper dump offs. It's not like they like have to run these crisp routes to get open all the time and such. When there's this very clear distinction, that's where I think there is some some reason to believe that you know, I'm not saying in week sixteen and seventeen, Digs is gonna fall flat, but I'm saying that I do think the coordinator change has made Stefan Diggs probably a little bit more volatile than he was before. Do you think that there's any sort of reason to believe that?

00:50:02
Speaker 4: It's probably a blend of necessity being the mother of invention and the Bills having been like way outside the playoff hunt and needing to do something really different, and so a mandate coming to say, okay, in the short windows stuff on, you're just gonna need to bite the bullet. You know, you're just gonna need to understand you're not gonna get the ball as much because we need to do something radically different because we're in trouble and we have to surprise teams. Did anybody think the Bills are gonna be able to run the Cowboys like that?

00:50:27
Speaker 3: You know? Some of it is variants.

00:50:30
Speaker 4: Some of it is just weird game flow variants where the Bills are a two point favorite or whatever it was and won by one hundred. You know, like that's just weird and not Diggs's fault at all. But sure, I mean, in the end, it's how many angels are dancing on the head of a pin because we're in mid December, and we're not telling I'm ranking stuff on Diggs below where I had them ranked earlier. You know, I was ranking them five among receivers the first three months of the year, two months of the year, and now I'm ranking them fifteen.

00:50:54
Speaker 3: But I don't know how you're sitting wide receiver fifteen.

00:50:56
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, think about the think about the Week five Buffalo Bills facing this Carter's defense, Stephan Diggs would arguably the wide receiver one, right like that, That's how we would probably be ranking him and that at least like in that Tyreek range, right. And now you're like, well, I mean, look at the way things have been trending, and yeah, I mean last week. I don't really look at last week as anything significant. When you throw the ball, when the team throws the ball fifteenth, they had seven completions in that game. Yeah, Like, how do you really take that much away from like a you know, a game script perspective and stuff, But yeah, I mean in a game plan perspective. But yeah, it's a very very interesting case. At least you mentioned rookies and rookies sort of falling flat. My my thing with rookies this year has been a lot of the early round guys, I mean, Jamior Gibbs obviously, second half of the season has bounced back. I have Bejon Robinson against you this week, and you're probably hoping, not that it matters because you're gonna steamroll me anyway, but.

00:51:44
Speaker 4: You're probably this is the verbal sandbag that's just gonna be awful, But you know, you're probably hoping that Bejon plays thirty, you know, fifty percent of the team snaps like he did last week, and is barely used.

00:51:57
Speaker 1: And to be honest, I didn't think that Beijon looked very good last It was probably his worst game. I know that his stat line shows that and his peripheral show that, but he had that that bad fumble that that forced him off the field. They just did not use him after that fumble, which is another thing that we could probably rant about for days. But yeah, I mean, I just I didn't think he looked very good in that game. Maybe it was the weather and like he's just not as good of a player in those kinds of conditions. I don't know, but I just didn't think that he looked that great, you know, watching him in that game. But regardless, this this rookie class. You know, I'd say the earlier round guys have been semi disappointing or just straight up disappointing. Of JSN, who you know, he had kind of the contingent upside of like, well, if something happens to Tyler Locket or DK Metcalf, those are two players that could elevate JSN if if you know, one of them were to get hurt. Jordan Andison's been hit, hit or miss obviously, Quentin Johnson's been been pretty bad. You know, Zay Flowers has had his moments, but he's been this like low aid dot more sort of gadgety guy at times this season. But then there's some Lake guys. There's the the Pukaakuas of the world. You know, Ja and Read, the guy that I remember talking about on your podcast at the beginning of the season. He's looked, he's he's looked really really good. How are you viewing the rookie class in general? Is there anyone watching throughout the season that you think, you know, you don't have to say, oh I like this guy more than the market does or consensus does, but anyone that's sort of like really caught your eye and you're like, Wow, this guy actually might be pretty special, and maybe not enough people are talking about him.

00:53:24
Speaker 3: So I'm glad you're saying.

00:53:25
Speaker 4: I don't have to say it relative to the market, because I don't know what the market thinks about anything. I don't really pay that much attention, and I don't know who people are talking about either, But uh, you know, I'll just say that what I meant by the rookies when we were talking before is the ones who went too high for fantasy, just like we joke about it on my show all the time about like, oh, you say, Jamiir Gibbs is a fourth rounder, Well I'm taking him in the third. Oh yeah, well I'm taking him in the second. Like there's a lot of that in the industry, and it leads to, you know, if you're gonna if ADP is like all the rough edges sanded down right, everybody's analysis lumped into a ball. Diferent people doing drafts are listening to wildly different people with weldly different opinions. But you got enough voices one up being a hipster and one uping each other on b Jhon Robinson.

00:54:08
Speaker 3: No, he should be the two overall.

00:54:09
Speaker 4: No, he should be the one overall, you know, it becomes for me very easy to just fade them and worry about them next year.

00:54:15
Speaker 3: Yep.

00:54:16
Speaker 4: And that's where I mostly feel like my take is with rookies now, Like, if there's a rookie that you're gonna tell me the ADPs in the first four rounds, I'm almost always gonna say, just fade him.

00:54:26
Speaker 3: What's the best case for b Jon Robinson.

00:54:28
Speaker 4: He does sake one Barkley's rookie season, cool, then you drafted him perfect. If he does anything less than that, you messed up, you know.

00:54:33
Speaker 1: Like, yeah, yeah, what's really interesting, I'm sorry to cut you off. What's really interesting about the rookie and ADPs is so I publish my draft guide at the beginning of July every year, right, so, like July first, and yeah, when I do that, like I had Robinson and Gibbs as players to target in that guide. The problem was when I wrote that Jamier Gibbs was a late fourth rounder and b John Robinson was like a one two turn kind of guy. And then things just shift as the season, you know, as things progress.

00:55:04
Speaker 2: And yeah, that's part.

00:55:05
Speaker 1: Of the issue too, is that you literally see the steam rolling and the the you know, these guys getting boosted in ADP.

00:55:12
Speaker 2: When I was doing f FPC drafts.

00:55:14
Speaker 1: Uh, you know, in late August, Jamiir Gibbs was like a mid to late second round pick, and so I do think that, like that's also from like a content creation standpoint too. It's really hard to like keep up with that and let your audience know that things are shifting. This is all based on ADP, but it is to some degree based on ADP. Where I'm not drafting Jamiir Gibbs at the two three turn. I was not drafting at the two three turn. I still have some Gibbs across my leagues, got them a lot in Dynasty too. But like that's a really big piece of this too, is that you do see like like perfect evidence this season. You see those early round rookies really get pushed up, especially once like late July and early August starts.

00:55:54
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's been happening for if Clyde Edwardsilire's a first round pick as rookie.

00:55:58
Speaker 3: I'm like, Okay, you don't know anything about him.

00:56:00
Speaker 4: You're just like the color of his pajamas, you know, Like what if you can't play.

00:56:03
Speaker 3: It turns out you can't play.

00:56:06
Speaker 4: So a rookie who I don't know what people are talking about, but I'll say that when Michael Wilson had the little blip, the little three week window where he got a lot of work and his shoulder wasn't hurt, I was like, ooh, now I kind of see what people were talking about. Like JJ, I'm I don't do work on rookies. You do all this work, and you watch all this college film, and you do college metrics and stuff, and bless your heart, I don't do any of it. I have you on my show and you tell me who you like. And I have Matt Waldmen on my show, and I have him tell me who I like. And then I go into the season with a picture in my head. But I go, yeah, probably that picture is gonna get you know, it's gonna be too hyped. So people said what people said about Michael Wilson, that the size was great, and you won't believe the ball skills, Like I kind of couldn't believe the ball skills, like absolutely amazing. Actually, Arizona has two of those guys and he's not a rookie.

00:56:54
Speaker 3: But McBride Trey McBride like it isn't. I don't care about the fantasy production because tight end is a wasteland. He's not a tight end.

00:57:01
Speaker 4: He's a slot receiver, right, you know, He's like, I don't care about any of it. All I care about is every time I watch a Cardinal game, Trey McBride does a thing that goes, oh, so, Kyler Murry should have three interceptions, and because two of them were thrown to Trey McBride, he only has one interception because McBride somehow stole it away from a defensive back. Yeah, those two guys in terms of like crazy ball skills, Like woo, what I mean, I'm really interested.

00:57:23
Speaker 1: That's great that you're saying about about Michael Wilson. I think he's an interesting player in week sixteen and seventeen, only as more of a dart deeper format. Obviously, if you're in like a twelve team league or whatever, you probably in you're in the semi final. Chances are unless you're my team in the Eckler Invitation, are you adding I'm I'm gonna add Michael Wilson and use him this weekend against you?

00:57:44
Speaker 3: No?

00:57:45
Speaker 1: So I do think though that he like, they have a pretty favorable schedule on paper and such, and matchup wise, it looks pretty good for him. And you know, you have this heel injury from Marquise Brown too, that could you know, Wilson's playing a lot.

00:57:56
Speaker 2: Regardless and he's on the field.

00:57:57
Speaker 1: You know, he returned from his injury last week, ran around a lot on a high percentage dropbacks and such.

00:58:02
Speaker 2: But I think he's pretty interesting.

00:58:04
Speaker 1: You know, I didn't love him as a prospect admittedly, but I've thought the same. I mean, that game against San Francisco was was pretty telling to me, and it was it was definitely an important game for me to then change my opinion a bit on him. I thought he looked pretty good. A follow up to this one rookie who's just surging right now from a fantasy perspective is Rashie Rice, again, a player who I didn't think. You know, I work with Matt a lot throughout the the off season, Matt Harmon where you know, like, for instance, I remember dming him and being like, dude, you got to check out Jayden Reid right now, and then he checks out Jaden Reid and he's like he's a reception perception hero. And then that's when I'm like doubling down on my Jaden Reid take and being like.

00:58:43
Speaker 3: This guy's gonna be good.

00:58:45
Speaker 1: But regardless, you know, Rashie Rice, you know Harmon had charted him, he didn't look that great as a route runner. I watched him and felt the same way. Analytically, also wasn't totally there. I mean, there were definitely some negative analytical marks to his profile. Now you watch this Chiefs offense and they seem to be forcing the ball to him to some degree. There's a lot of manufactured touches. But have you've seen some positive things out of him too, at least like developmentally too, from the start of the season to now.

00:59:15
Speaker 4: Yeah, Like it's a split conversation because on the one hand, why get cute if you've been riding Rishie Rice to where you are and you're just keep using him, Like, that's not what we're talking about.

00:59:26
Speaker 3: We're talking about for the future exactly.

00:59:28
Speaker 4: Is he is he a wide receiver one in the future. I did a film breakdown of him on the show, and I came away feeling like he would have to show a lot more than they've let him show to this point, I don't know that he's Again once again, it's really hard to prove a negative when when a team doesn't do a thing, but they're not doing the thing, which is to say, they're really not having him run that many routes down the field that they wind up throwing to him. He'll run down the field, they just don't throw to him that much down there. That the vast majority of his stuff is gadgety and screens.

00:59:57
Speaker 3: And and he's kind of a running back. Yeah, with the ball in his hands.

01:00:00
Speaker 4: He has some Debo to him, and he's not he's not Deebo size, and he's also just not Debo's crazy like insanity, the level of craziness and the level of risk that Deebo Samuel puts puts his body in. I'm not quite seeing that from anyone because Debo's crazy. So a lot of this production has been manufactured touches. They don't have anybody who can make a play. Please just be like an extension of the run game or you know, the the quote unquote touchdown catch last week Anst. Patriots is Jeric McKinnon forward wildcat flip to him on the one yard line. It's not it's not really how it usually works right for wide receivers. So, you know, I think the worry you have is that he's Cordero Patterson, you know, the worry that he has that he's just that he's that he's freakin Jamichael Hasty, that he's who you know, all these guys that were touted as you know, Time Montgomery, like slashy kind of guys. But don't worry either going to always have the ball in their hands, and usually most of them don't.

01:01:00
Speaker 1: I don't think it's Canarious Tony on the same team, right.

01:01:03
Speaker 3: But but different very different kinds. Yea, yeah, yeah, oh yeah, yeah yeah. Tony had a brain in his head, he'd be an all Tony.

01:01:10
Speaker 1: Tony is much twitchier and has does things with his body that I have never seen a wide receiver do, whereas where she Rice is very much the bulldozing yak type.

01:01:18
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah yeah, so uh I, I you know, he's a he's a kid. He played it a small sm is not that small, but you know, like didn't play elite level of competition. This is all all new to him and this could be absolutely part of a ramp up plan with him, or like this season, what we're gonna give you is a bunch of five yard routes, buddy, like, go go nuts, learn how to do this, and then next summer we're gonna get you on an NFL training program and get you even stronger. And uh, I don't know how they do that.

01:01:46
Speaker 3: JJ, how do they get themselves stronger? It's so so odd how they do that?

01:01:51
Speaker 4: And uh and and uh, you know, we'll we'll teach you how to run routes later. But yeah, I the insinuation of your question is like, is this sustained? And I would say, you know, if this is all he is, it's a very narrow line. It's a very narrow path to being really good for fantasy for the long term. Deebo does it, but he's the only one, so I would say I would I would want him to show more in the future.

01:02:17
Speaker 3: Yeah.

01:02:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean to your point too, when teams aren't doing something with a player, yes, there's the idea that Okay, we haven't seen that yet, But at the same time you also have to look, I'm not saying that coaches are rational by any means could because there's plenty of instances where they're not, but you have to ask yourself like, Okay, is there a reason why he's not, Like, look at the Kansas City passing attack right now.

01:02:40
Speaker 3: Number one sure could use it, Yeah.

01:02:41
Speaker 1: Exactly exactly, they could use that kind of true X that that true just number one wide on on that team. And if they're gonna use Rashi Rice only in this way or mostly in this way, you know, there's there's at least that belief in the back of my mind of like this is a red flag potentially, right, not not to say that he's gonna bust or anything, but at least watch out for this and don't just look at his production over the last month where he's seeing thirty percent target shairs and he's giving you, you know, fringe wide receiver one production. It's more so like, look at the sustainability of this because the instant that you know, uh, Kansas City either goes a free agency or drafts a true number one, what's gonna happen to that player? And that's the question that you really should be asking.

01:03:22
Speaker 4: I mean, the one thing we know for sure is that there's gonna be another big name in the receiving room next year.

01:03:27
Speaker 3: There has yeah, there has to be there or less.

01:03:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, or they'll just spend another second round pick on a bad receiver, one of those.

01:03:35
Speaker 4: I mean, here's the thing, the path for I said in my film review of Rice. The path could be Chris Godwin.

01:03:41
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, like the.

01:03:43
Speaker 4: Path could be because because Chris Godwin had some of these things too, you know, Chris Godwin had like how's he really gonna separate? And in the end the Buccaneers kind of decided, he's not gonna and we don't care.

01:03:53
Speaker 3: He's gonna run the middle of field.

01:03:55
Speaker 4: He's gonna be a big, strong, tough guy and against zone we're gonna throw I mean, god less week. Gee, I wonder why Godwin had such a big game next last week. Like, not that I predicted it was gonna happen, but I can put the pieces together. Afterwards, Green Bay didn't do anything. They played zone, they played back. They had two linebackers standing in the middle of field. Chris gott went, cool, I'm gonna run a hook here, and I'm gonna run a hook here.

01:04:13
Speaker 3: I'm gonna run here. Any caught eleven passes.

01:04:15
Speaker 4: Or like, so Rice isn't even that yet, right, but maybe maybe maybe there's a way for him to become that, which can be great if if you've got an all time quarterback, which they do.

01:04:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, one more question before I let you go. It's the fantasy football playoffs. Like I said, you're about to destroy me in the fantasy football playoffs? Are you gonna be managing things any differently in your leagues that you're still alive?

01:04:39
Speaker 2: And like do you do?

01:04:41
Speaker 1: Like I get this question all the time, people are like, how should I handle things in the fantasy playoffs? And you know, to me, there's you know, like it's still.

01:04:48
Speaker 2: The same game.

01:04:49
Speaker 1: You know, you're still playing the same game that that you played throughout, but there are some tweaks that you can and potentially make, whether it starts sit or whether it's uh, you know, through the waiver wire, your roster management. So is there anything that you're doing in particular this time of year?

01:05:05
Speaker 4: I think the waiver wires a great point. That's probably the place where I would be.

01:05:09
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, I didn't have to in the ecler league because my team is already perfect, so I don't have to.

01:05:14
Speaker 1: But meanwhile, meanwhile, the whole waiver transactions list right now is just JJ's Majestic team, which is the team name, and in that league, just over and over again, adding like Chris Rodriguez and just these backup running backs everywhere.

01:05:25
Speaker 3: It's a fourteen team league. We should mention.

01:05:27
Speaker 4: And also, I'm probably not gonna win, like you keep sandbagging, but yeah, we'll see you'll win. So you know, there's there's You just don't need a lot of the extra guys that you were carrying. You don't need an extra tight dad, don't need an extra quarterback. You probably don't need the third receiver who might have broken. You don't need Jamison Williams. You don't you know the guys who may so like drop them all and add running back handcuffs just go down the list. And because they did, even if they weren't hurt for week sixteen, they could get hurt in week sixteen. In week seventeen, you might have the golden tickets sitting on your bench. I can't tell you which guys that it's gonna be, but the usual suspect feel pretty like you should know the names by now, five or six of them, and you can. I'd say number one is just take a chance on that. That's that's mandatory. If you're still alive in your playoffs, definitely do that and then lineup strategy. I don't think there's definitely one way to do it. I think it comes down to what you personally can live with. I say this a lot on my show. We said it before with Stefan Diggs, like I can't live with myself as Steffan Diggs goes off on my bench, I'll have a bad winter, Like I won't sleep for a few months.

01:06:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, I will.

01:06:30
Speaker 4: I don't care that much. But you know, let's pretend I do the you know, I don't. I don't want to start whoever, you know, like Noah Brown, hey man, Steffan Diggs has done nothing for a month. Somehow I survive. Noah Brown's the number one receiver for Houston. Nobody else is playing. How am I not using Noah Brown? Like, I personally can't do that because I don't want that to happen to me. I don't want Digs to go off on my bench.

01:06:56
Speaker 3: But I do think it's defensible if somebody else feels like.

01:07:00
Speaker 4: I'm done with Steffan Diggs. I don't care anymore if he goes on a bench.

01:07:03
Speaker 3: I don't care.

01:07:04
Speaker 4: I want to give him. I don't believe it's gonna happen. I don't think they want to throw it to him. And I'm gonna go ahead and pick up the hotter young model and put him in. And I don't think that's wrong. I think it Like what what keeps you up? You know, Steffan Diggs being terrible in your lineup?

01:07:20
Speaker 3: Again? Is that more annoying to you?

01:07:22
Speaker 4: Or Stefan Digg's going off on your bench? For me, the answer is definitely Steffan Dig's going off on my bench. Yeah, But if someone else, the answer is not that.

01:07:29
Speaker 3: If he goes on a bench I can deal with.

01:07:31
Speaker 4: I just can't look at his damn name in my lineup anymore. Like I respect that take. I don't think it's a wrong take, don't. I don't know what's gonna happen. You don't know what's gonna happen. Diggs has been terrible, Like, I can't tell you that for sure that it's gonna go okay. But that's probably the lineup philosophy question. You have to ask yourself, like the dude who's frustrating you, who hasn't produced, which is gonna tick you off more him doing well on your bench him doing poor in your lineup.

01:07:55
Speaker 3: Yeah.

01:07:55
Speaker 1: I also think you know this is it's the end of the season, so we do have a full season and worth of watching these guys, looking at how their usage is and how these teams are using these players, and so you might feel this feeling of and again we're not saying to bench Stefon Diggs at all here, but you might feel this feeling of, like Diggs has been bad, I'm gonna bench him for some player like Rashid Rice, let's say, or something like that, where uh, you know, Digs might be ranked ahead or like you could easily yeah, right, right, exactly exactly. But I'm saying that if you look at the brand name there, right, you're gonna say to yourself, it's very easy to say to yourself, oh man, I'm gonna bench Stefan Diggs for a rookie wide out who did not a whole lot during the front half of the season. And you know that that feels really uncomfortable to me.

01:08:42
Speaker 2: But the way that I would see it is just be logical.

01:08:45
Speaker 3: Right.

01:08:45
Speaker 1: If if you can be logical with your decision making, you've won. You know, like like stuff is gonna happen, Like I beat Norris last week in that league, Like I said, I shouldn't have beaten him from like a logical perspective, Yeah right, like yeah, the river's gonna be yeah, right, right right, Like something crazy is gonna happen. You're gonna have ninety four to six odds and you're gonna you're gonna have very very small odds to win a game. And sometimes it just happens, and that's the way the fantasy football is. But it's not gonna happen this week. Between us.

01:09:15
Speaker 4: You are you are going to look just run down the whole team, run down my whole team for the phone.

01:09:22
Speaker 1: Usually usually I reverse jinks, Chris, Like, usually this would be a trying. This is not a reverse Jings. This is a you are going to absolutely annihilate me. Josh Allen, DK Metcalf, Jacobe Myers, Christian McCaffrey, Isaiah Pacheco, George Kittle, Kenneth Walker. And then you have the Eagles, who I have right now is the top rank defense this week, so or at least in that in that conversation, and then I'm sitting there with Brock Perdy who's been great but gets Baltimore this week. And then Jordan Addison, who was great last week, and I you know, he gets Detroit at least maybe a relatively interesting game overall from a scoring perspective. Drake London, who's you know in that just horrific Offensive's A bold strategy of mine in this league was to draft to Atlanta Falcons with my first five picks because I'd be Jon Robinson too. Jonathan Taylor's back, which is nice, but or hopefully back. I should say, I'm crossing my fingers that he's back. And then Isaiah likely Jayden Reid might not even play.

01:10:16
Speaker 2: I'm screwed. I'm beyond screwed, but we'll let this thing play.

01:10:19
Speaker 3: I mean, the you know what a draft it was.

01:10:23
Speaker 4: It's very funny because Harmon and Eckler talk on on Harmon's show every week, and for weeks they would be I was told, I don't really listen, but I was told like they would. They would be like, who's this guy? Who's this Harris guy? How's he undefeated?

01:10:34
Speaker 3: This is annoying? And then and then they were like he hasn't made a transaction. Yeah. He was like, yeah, yeah, I had.

01:10:42
Speaker 4: I had no transactions. It was it was a flawless draft. I don't always have them, but in that league it seems like it did well. We'll see he got two more, two more.

01:10:48
Speaker 3: I gotta win.

01:10:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, Chris, it was awesome talking to you, man. I wish that we would have been able to do this earlier this season, which is my fault because I should have talked to you earlier in the season about this.

01:10:56
Speaker 2: But I also this is the last.

01:10:58
Speaker 1: Perspective's episode of the fantasy football season, and I think capping it off with you and again your different perspective and the way that you approach fantasy was gonna be is gonna be great for people to listen to. So why don't you let everyone who doesn't know know where they can find you? You know, you could say it you Okay, You're you're on Twitter at Harris Football.

01:11:20
Speaker 2: You can go to Harris football dot com check out the podcast.

01:11:23
Speaker 1: Definitely again, just a different approach than what you would probably get with or what you would definitely beginning with, like the Late Round podcast. One of the things that's great too is I'll look at like a Reddit or something, or someone will direct me to a post on Reddit. And one of the cool things that I love to see is when people say that they mesh our processes together and that when you and I are aligned on a player, that's when it's like, you know, rocket ship emojis, like just go after that guy.

01:11:48
Speaker 2: So that's really cool to see.

01:11:49
Speaker 3: I just I just think you.

01:11:51
Speaker 4: I think you're doing it to yourself calling yourself a data guy. You're a film guy too, Yeah, yeah, I mean it is a bunch of how what takes more? You gotta watch the stupid games that it takes way longer than doing the model, So like you're a film guy too.

01:12:02
Speaker 2: I agree with that. I agree with that.

01:12:03
Speaker 1: But I would say that I am more confident in a lot of the data analysis that I'm doing just in general, because that's like where sort of I've all be more confident good at and stuff.

01:12:13
Speaker 3: You're good at the football stuff.

01:12:15
Speaker 4: I would never have had you on my show in the first place if you weren't excellent at the football stuff.

01:12:18
Speaker 1: Thank you.

01:12:19
Speaker 4: That's what matters most to me, and you were excellent at it. Like we never like if you and I are having a conversation about player on my show, I never I never have to go.

01:12:27
Speaker 3: Hold on a second. You're saying something stupid here.

01:12:29
Speaker 4: This is never true, Like you're you're always grounding it, thank you. You're always like, here's some data for you, but I'm going to ground this in some real football knowledge.

01:12:37
Speaker 3: You have tons and tons of football now, thank you.

01:12:39
Speaker 1: Maybe it's the thing that we were talking about earlier where it's just like you've been doing it for a long time and then all of a sudden you're like, oh.

01:12:45
Speaker 2: I can actually know I'm actually not too careful at this.

01:12:48
Speaker 3: Yeah, you are good at it.

01:12:49
Speaker 1: Well, I appreciate it, man, I really really loved having chats with you just in general about this nerdy, nerdy game that we are involved with and making a living off of. But if anyone's not following me on Twitter at let round QB check out all the stuff over on lateround dot com. And as always, everyone, thank you for tuning in.