899: Risers and Fallers

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Speaker 1: This is the lad podcast with your host JJ zacherathis j J zacher Reef. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode eight hundred and ninety nine of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. I really start my redraft research, my season long fantasy football research in early May. The winter months are spent figuring out the NFL Draft and doing some dynasty research. But once the draft is over, things flip. My brain goes into redraft mode. I start really working on the draft guide, and the content that you consume on here is geared towards that particular season that starts in May. By the time the season kicks off it's early September. A lot can change in those three or four months, and that's why I feel this episode is necessary to do each and every year. On today's episode, I'm gonna talk about the players who have gone up the to my rankings over the last weeks and months, and then I'm going to talk about the guys who have fallen the most. That way, we're on the same page as we approach the fantasy football season. Now, before get into things, I want to send another reminder about signing up on Underdog Fantasy. Underdog is awesome. They've got best ball drafts and tournaments going on all the time for this year's fantasy season, and those drafts are at all entry points. You don't need tons and tons of money to play. You can join tournaments for three dollars and five dollars entry fees too. I've been becoming a best ball bro this offseason, and while you don't need to go that hardcore, you can still use those episodes in the podcast feed to help you out to make you a better best ball player. And I've got a special offer for you too. If you sign up on Underdog Fantasy with promo code Late Round, not only will you get a nice deposit offer, but Underdog will send you a free late Round Draft guide. You can make a ten dollars deposit and get the guide. The guide cost twenty five dollars. You're literally saving cash by taking advantage of the offer. Just head to Underdog Fantasy dot com, sign up, and use promo code late Round when you do. Once you make a deposit, the guide will be sent your way. Now let's get to this year's big risers and Follers. The Chiefs wide receiver room has been kind of a roller coaster this offseason. You had all of the Rashi Rice stuff go down earlier in the year, they signed Marquise Brown, they drafted Xavier Worthy, then Marquise Brown got hurt, and it's looking less and less likely that Rashie Rice is going to be suspended this year, all the while Xavier Worthy has looked the part so far and camping in the preseason. Now, I'm not that surprised by that last note. Worthy with something that my model really liked. He's someone that I'm into. I did have some concern about what his target total might look like in year one, but I've become less and less concerned about that when look at how they've deployed him in the preseason. Not only that, but Hollywood Brown is banged up already in the early parts of the season. That could very easily force more looks to these other two young wide receivers. So Brown was looking really good in like June. He was competing with Worthy for targets, and there were some real questions as to how the Chiefs might use Worthy here in year one. But that's at least been squashed to some degree, and then all the while this Rashi Rice suspension is looking more unlikely for twenty twenty four, and then Marquise Brown got hurt, so things have gone really south for Brown. He's seen a pretty big drop in my rankings. The other two wide receivers have risen. Rice is interesting because the market still clearly has people who believe that he could be suspended. That's why I added him as a player to target in the draft guy just a couple of weeks ago. And while I'm with some people who are a little bit afraid of Rice's true ceiling in the league after what we saw last year and last year was this low aid dot role where he generated a lot of yards after the catch. He likely saw a bump in target share last year due to lack of competition. I get all of that. I don't think we can just dismiss, though, the idea that Rice just gets better as a second year player. He scored well in my year two model. He was in the range where we see a lot of elite players, and just look at history. Rice hit thirteen point three PPR points per game last year. There have been nineteen wideouts since twenty eleven with next season data who hit thirteen or more PPR points per game as a rookie. Of those nineteen, only three of them ended up scoring fewer than fourteen PPR points per game. He's actually fourteen point four during year two. That's a wide receiver two season. Sixteen of the nineteen wide receivers were wide receiver twos during their sophomore year in the NFL. Now, like I said, I've had my own concerns about Rashi Rice the player. He didn't really play a typical wide receiver role last year. It was sort of Jarvis Landry esque. But that doesn't mean that he can in or that he won't still see a relatively decent target share even with more offensive weapons in Kansas City. So basically, I'm higher than the market on Rice and Worthy now, and I'm more concerned about Hollywood Brown. That's been a shift in my rankings. I've brought up the Seattle backfield quite a bit on the show over the last handful of weeks, whether it be on this show, last week's Mailbag episode, or becoming a Best Ball bro Now, I was initially very in on Zach Sharboney, at least in Best Ball, I wasn't as an on Walker. I was still drafting Walker in Best Ball, but not at the same rate as I was drafting Zach Sharboney. That's flipped a little bit over the last month. I still think Sharbonay is fine in Best Ball because of the injury upside, but my fear in a managed season long league is he just ends up being strictly a handcuff without much flex appeal. Because the Seahawks coaching staff does seem to really like Kenneth Walker. But let's take a step back. Why was I into Sharbonne at cost versus Walker at his in the first place? Well, first off, he was cheaper and he still is cheaper. Spending a double digit round pick on Zach Sharbonet is not going to burn you. But also a lot of Charbonnay's numbers last year weren't any worse than Kenneth Walker's. In fact, they were arguably better. Sharps had a better yards after contact per attempt rate, he had a better success rate. His yards over expected per attempt was also better, and he gained ten or more yards at a better clip than Walker too. Now he faced stacked boxes less frequently than Kenneth Walker did. But Walker wasn't so glaringly better than Zach Sharbonay. Walker's always been more of a home run hitting running back with a ton of explosiveness. There was a chance at this coaching staff just like Sharboney's style more and they would end up giving him more work than expected. And that last part is key to the June and into July Sharbonnay thesis for me. But this coaching stafle is talking very clearly about Walker being the starter, and they've said multiple times that they think that he's a three down back. More importantly, they've talked up using Walker more as a receiver. Now, this is something I talked through on last week's Mailbag episode, but I think the masses sometimes do a poor job in understanding what this kind of coach speak can look like, what it means. We have to always lead with talent. We have to lead with our talent based evidence. Kenneth Walker might not be a bad pass catcher, but he's never been a volume receiver out of the backfield. He wasn't one in college, he's yet to be one in the NFL. To me, though, being a good enough pass catcher isn't overly difficult for an NFL running back. You'll have some guys who are just not that natural in doing it, and then you'll have some players like Christian McCaffrey who are absolutely insane at catching passes. But the majority of players, the majority of running backs, are somewhere in the middle. That's where Kenneth Walker likely is. Even if he's below average, he can still see some volume there. So that means it is eight percent target share. Based on the reports and how they might want to deploy him, that hypothetically could turn into a ten percent eleven percent target share. The problem is people then taking those reports way too far and ignoring the body of work, and they start making assumptions that the target chair will get to fifteen or sixteen percent, that Kenneth Walker is going to be a sixty or seventy catch running back. Not only is that just way too high for a player like Walker, but Seattle has a lot of competition in that passing attack. Now, coach speak matters to me more running back than wide receiver and tight end because coaches can completely change a running back's volume based on who they have on the field. If they want to split backfield. We have to recognize that and play into it and try to read it. The talent profile matters because it's going to guide those coaches to a rational decision. But it's not that simple. So I originally had Walker in that tier after Joe Mixon, Rashad White, and Josh Jacobs. I think he belongs in that tier. Now I think he belongs with those guys, and that's made me actually slightly higher than the market on Kenneth Walker. At the very least. I'm definitely not lower than the market with Walker, and I know that because I've gotten him in season long drafts this month, and then meanwhile with Sharboney, I've sort of let him just be the upside best ball pick as opposed to a season long pick. I think he's much easier to take in a season long league with big benches because you can just stash him, but if you're in a ten or twelve team league with five bench spots, I tried to get a little bit more secured production I was in on DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. There are two trends with middle round wide receivers. Whereas I've defined it wide out to go in that wide receiver twenty five to wide receiver forty two range. There are two trends that he fits really well, trends that we look for and break out wide receivers wide receivers who far out play their ADP. One of those is that really old wide receivers in that range have historically actually been quite good. My reasoning as to why that's the case is because sort of a survivorship bias. The fact that these guys are still getting drafted as wide receiver threes in high end wide receiver fours despite being in their tenth their eleventh year in the league. That tells us that they're good players. But also players in that range with strong previous season peripherals also do well, specifically in yards per route run, and Hopkins was right in line. It was actually better in yards per route run last year than his previous two seasons. The issue is that he's now dealing with this knee injury. He's a thirty two year old wide receiver entering the year with a banged up knee. Now the Titans are optimistic about Week one with DeAndre Hopkins. That's great, but that's obviously going to push the dude down in my rankings. Again, he's a thirty two year old wide receiver with a bad knee. Now, with all that being said, a lot of other drafters have done the same with DeAndre Hopkins, so I'm actually still drafting him at his new ADP, but there's definitely a lot more risk than there was a month ago. Here he's not as much of a glaring value, so he's been a foller for me. We know to target ambiguous backfields in Fantasy football, or at least if you've consumed my content over the last decade, you know that's the type of backfield that you want to look for in the middle rounds, not a backfield where there's a standalone RB one. There are a ton of intriguing backfields that I'm targeting this year, intriguing ambiguous backfields, and it's not just one player from those backfields. I like both Pittsburgh backs Jalen Warren injury aside. I like the Tennessee backfield and getting exposure to both Pollard and Spears, and then they's Cincinnati. At the start of the offseason, I was higher than the market on both Zach Moss and Chase Brown, but I had Moss straight up up ahead of Brown cost a side. But the more that I've thought about that situation over the last couple of months, and the more that I've read about that situation, I've flipped. I'm more into Brown now, though I still think Moss is fine to grab two. Brown's always been an explosive back. He tested well at the Combine and we saw his big playability in action as a rookie last year. He didn't see a ton of work, but he definitely showed off his explosiveness. The fear with Brown was that maybe, just maybe the Bengals wouldn't use him as much in a receiving role this year, because in twenty twenty three he didn't really play that much on third down. He had just four rush attempts on third down and two of his receptions were on third down. Every sign points to him being the pass catching back for that team this year, though maybe something happens where something like Samaje p RAN's cut by the Broncos and then he's signed by the Bengals, and maybe Cincinnati wants to use p Ryan in that role. But Brown is looking like a player who's at least gonna split early down work and then see most of the receiving work. And it's not even a lock that Zack Moss sees all the goal line work. Chase Brown is a lot bigger than people realize. Pass Catching generally trumps any other trend than we might be looking for with middle round running backs. With running backs in general, in most formats, you'd prefer a pass catching running back over a goal line running back because it's not like the pass catching running back can't score touchdowns. It's not like he'll never see a single goal line rush. Brown's also a second year running back. That's usually the kind of runner that you want to target in the middle rounds Now, there's nothing wrong with Zach Moss at his price, but there does seem to be a lot more upside with Chase Brown, and that upside has become more and more evident over the last couple of months. So I'm higher than the market on this entire backfield, but especially with Chase Brown specifically in a redraft format. Of course. Now, I talked at length about this last Week's becoming a Best Ball bro but I know that not everyone listens to that show. I also want to provide more detail about the backfield here, that backfield being the Chargers backfield. Daniel Popper of The Athletic published an article last week which left Camani Videll off the Chargers final roster, and the fantasy football world went absolutely nuts over it. Anyone who listens to this show knows that I like Viadel the talent. It's not even the situation that I bought into, which is a good situation. Vinell is a prospect who had good production on a smaller program. He has burst, he can pass protect, he's a good pass catcher. Layer the team situation on top of that, which is a run heavy environment with two beatable running backs at the top of the depth chart, and he seemed like a slam dunk, late round dart throat. Now when I say something like that, the reaction is the thing that I'm obsessed with the guy, and I think that there's no chance that things can go south. Folks, He's a Day three pick. Day three running backs do not work out at a high rate whatsoever. Of course, this might not work out. In fact, the chance that it doesn't work out far far exceeds the chance that it does. And with a Day three pick, there's always a chance the player gets cut. Now. With that being said, it was tough to go all in on that article and make the assumption that Viadell was gonna get cut. I said as much on becoming a Best Ball bro last week. Videll got off to a slow start because of an injury, and that's what largely was being reported in that article. He then finally got some work this past weekend and he looked pretty good. That was nice to see, but videl still dropped in my rankings simply because he hasn't been on the field. He'll move back up a bit after seeing him over the weekend, though now. Videll has stayed as a late round target for me in re draft leagues. I stopped drafting him over the last week and a half in Best Ball, but I'm more optimistic now because he actually was able to play. So he's been a foller, but he's bouncing back now. On the flip side, a big riser for me has been JK. Dobbins, and he's honestly the player who matters more for this episode in my opinion, Dobbins has not been able to stay healthy throughout his NFL career. He's coming off an injury that usually derails a running backs career. But the fact that we've just seen him play that he's healthier than I at least expected, you have to move him up. He looks like he's going to open the year as their starter. Now how long that lasts is totally up in the air, and we should be absolutely cautious with Dobbin's health. But he's clear to hurdle that I didn't even know that he'd clear, and I'm not sure the market has totally caught up. Throwing darts at this backfield is not a bad idea, whether it's Vaidell or Dobbins. Now I've gotten more in their direction because Gus Edward's lack of receiving upside alongside his cost, but I felt like they were a good pair to shout out on today's show. I like Jermaine Burton as a prospect. He's someone I targeted pretty heavily in Best Ball drafts and June and early July, and that was kind of a mistake because there's been a lot of Andre josebash hype over this offseason, especially over the last month. He may be the one to one Tyler Boyd replacement in that Bengals offense. Now, Burton can play all over the field, but there's a real chance that he's more of a field stretcher early on here in year one, and that puts the Bengals in an interesting spot. Given Jamar Chase and t Higgins are both perimeter guys. I thought they'd maybe shift Chase to the slot in three wide sets, but Josebash is almost definitely gonna be the starter to open up the year. So Yosebash has gotten a bump, Burton has been pushed down my rankings. With that being said, I have a hard time thinking a guy from Princeton who is just a fine prospect who didn't do that much as a rookie. I have a hard time assuming that he's gonna be the one that keeps Jermaine Burton, a guy from Alabama who had a really good prospect profile, that he's going to keep him off the field at least for the entirety of the season. Just from a town an evaluation standpoint and what my model says, I do still prefer Jermaine Burton, but if the team wants to go in a direction, they'll go in that direction. It's hard to remember a coach going out to the media and talking down on a running back the way that Dennis Allen has done so with Kendra Miller. Three weeks ago, Alan voices annoyance with Miller's health, and then just a handful of days ago, according to Roto World, Alan said that nothing's changed with Miller's health in the way that he feels. That was ronal World talking about an ESPN report and SoundBite. Now, I don't know if Miller's going to be straight up cut, but there are huge concerns there. So he's obviously bumped down my rankings over the last month, though he wasn't super high to begin with, and the market's adjusted too. Kendre Miller has fallen a lot in drafts. But one thing that's kind of weird is that Alvin Kamara's rankover on Fantasy Pros or even his ADP in a lot of places, it's maybe risen a tad but not by a whole lot. Kamara, to me is a riser. I get why people are hesitant to draft him. He's twenty nine years old, it's his eighth year. Only ten running back since twenty eleven have hit fifteen or more PPR points. Per game in year eight or later, odds are not in Alvin Kamara's favor, But I can't stress this enough. Pass catching running max are so important in fantasy football. Kamara is still gonna at least play that role despite his lack of efficiency over the last couple of years. And for the record, that lack of efficiency needs some context. He was better than Jamal Williams last year in yards after contact per attempt, and he was way better in success rate, and then in twenty twenty two it was the exact same deal against his backfield competition. The Saints' offense just has not been giving him any help, but he's still seeing receiving work, and that receiving work is making him a very good fantasy asset. And why should we think that's gonna go away this year? Jamal Williams and probably Kendre Miller that's his toughest competition. Williams isn't used heavily as a receiver, Miller didn't have a fantastic receiving profile in college. Like this is still Alvin Kamara's backfield at the very least from a pass catching perspective, and it's an offense that should look better year over year simply because of their offensive coordinator change. But Kamara finishes the RB three and PPR points per game last year. And running backs drafted as RB twos so RB thirteen to RB twenty four since twenty fourteen who have strong pass catching profiles, they've done very very well. Seventy five percent of them who had a ten percent target share ended up scoring fourteen or more PPR points per game. Forty one percent of them hit sixteen or more PPR points per game. A ten percent target share for a healthy Alvin Kamara is basically a lock. So I've been targeting Kamara more than avoiding, and the stuff with Kendre Miller only reinforces that idea. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and do for to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Make sure you're also subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel. I'm doing live streams over there all the time. We also have videos of becoming a Best ball bro and Lateround perspectives there too. Check it out and subscribe. It's YouTube dot com slash at Laterounddeff. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with another episode of becoming a Best ball Bro