AvTalk Episode 235: 1200 pilots short

AVT 235 Transcript
EPISODE 235
[EPISODE]
[0:00:07] IP: Hello, and welcome to Episode 235 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik, here, as always
with –
[0:00:17] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Welcome back. How are you, Ian?
[0:00:20] IP: I'm doing all right, Jason. How are you, sir?
[0:00:23] JR: I'm good. Thank you.
[0:00:24] IP: That was my best Midwestern answer for you.
[0:00:27] JR: That was great.
[0:00:28] IP: Thank you. As you know, it's a soft, okay. But we're hanging in there. It's been a
good week, so far, as far as the aviation business is concerned. Although I should say, for
regular listener to the podcast, that a few things that we've talked about, oh, I don't know,
months ago, are finally kind of in the works, and we're getting ready to release them. So, we'll
have a lot more to say about some really cool new features coming to the web and apps at the
same time, in the next couple of weeks.
So, pencil down episode 237, I think, it's going to be, where we'll talk about those. But I've been
playing around with that this week in some beta testing. But other than that, we've got a
hodgepodge of a show this week. Nothing huge. I wouldn't say there's a real main story this
week. It's just some updates and some good news, mostly all around the industry. Then, the
news that's maybe not categorized as good isn't terrible. So, I think we've got ourselves a pretty
good show. Should we dive in?
[0:01:36] JR: Yes, not terrible news. We'll take it.
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AVT 235 Transcript
[0:01:39] IP: Yes, we'll take. So, we got a little bit more information from the Russian
investigators on the Ural Airlines A320 that landed in a field near, well, I shouldn't say near, but
landed in a field on its –
[0:01:55] JR: In a field.
[0:01:54] IP: In a field, as it was trying to divert to Novosibirsk, from Omsk, and Rosaviatsiya, I
think I got that right, is the Russian Air Transport Investigator. And they provided a bit more
information about how, what happened, happened. As it turns out, the pilots didn't know that the
gear was still down, which kind of explains what happened as far as the aircraft running out of
fuel.
Jason, I think you flagged this particular bit of information when they landed with nearly no fuel
remaining. Two hundred and sixteen liters left in the tank.
[0:02:40] JR: That is not a lot of fuel.
[0:02:42] IP: Not a lot.
[0:02:44] JR: Not a lot. So not only did they run out of fuel, but they didn't come anywhere close
to their diversion point with anywhere near the fuel they would have needed to get there. So,
this wasn't even like a slight miscalculation. They were way off, and it turns out that when they
had this hydraulic issue, apparently with the green system on this 320, and initiated to go
around, they went to retract the gear as they would do. And they, according to the FDR data, the
gear did not retract, as we know. But the crew somehow didn't notice that. They didn't look to
make sure that the, I guess, that the lights were turned off, the gear indication lights were off,
and that the gear was up and locked. And they just ran their fuel calculations to their diversion
point, thinking they had a totally clean aircraft, aerodynamically speaking. When in reality, it
seems like the flaps and the slats and all the gear was down, which is quite problematic if you're
trying to do a fuel calculation to get to a diversion point, because they didn't take any of that
seemingly into account, and that is how they ended up in a field.
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AVT 235 Transcript
So, all the early posturing and congratulation to the crew, probably a bit premature because they
themselves put themselves in that field, which probably isn't something that should be
celebrated.
[0:04:03] IP: Yes, I mean the –
[0:04:04] JR: it's tough. You got to congratulate them that they put the aircraft down and no one
was hurt. But it's hard to do that at the same time knowing that it should never have happened
due to their own miscalculation and their own lack of awareness that their aircraft was
significantly in a different configuration than they thought it was.
[0:04:25] IP: Right. Exactly. That's the double-edged sword to use – well, pick a metaphor. We
also learned a little bit more this week about what Ural plans to do with the aircraft. As it turns
out, they're going –
[0:04:40] JR: You’re going to get your hat.
[0:04:41] IP: I am. I am. They're going to fly this plane out. Well, they're going to move it
somehow. All signs point to them actually flying it out. A few of the fan blades were damaged by
the ingestion of debris as the aircraft landed in the field. Those fan blades are going to be
replaced. The aircraft is going to be placed up on platforms to help keep the aircraft safe from
whatever's happening underneath it. And it sounds like once the aircraft has been repaired as
best it can, it will be moved and Ural Airlines says that the aircraft will fly again.
Well, they say will likely fly again, I guess there's some hedging there. But the airline has shared
pictures of its technicians in the field, and I mean that literally, servicing the engines. There's a
nice little like Great British bake-off tent thing next to the engine. If we go back a few years,
there was the purpose-built inflatable tent that Swiss and Boeing used to replace the engine, on
I believe it was a Swiss like 49 which diverted to Iqaluit in Northern Canada. It was super cold,
so they brought in a tent so they could work on the engine, not in Northern Canada.
This tent, very different, much more having a birthday party in a backyard kind of thing. But a
tent nonetheless. And they'll replace what needs replacing and it sounds like they're going to fly
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AVT 235 Transcript
it out. So yes, I guess I need to figure out whether I'm going to have ketchup or barbecue sauce
in my hand.
[0:06:22] JR: Make it Chicago style.
[0:06:23] IP: There you go. I'll get some celery salt and we’ll call it a day.
[0:06:26] JR: Make it interesting. It shouldn't be impossible to do that the field they landed in is
quite large, actually. And if they pave the field in front of them, or I can't imagine they're just
going to wait for the ground to freeze and then just give it a go with the ground as is, I assume
they're going to do something. Flatten it, compress the soil like you would do before you pave,
or maybe they will actually pave it. But there's no real reason they couldn't or shouldn't do this
as we know they need every aircraft they can get their hands on. If this one is perfectly
serviceable outside of a few fan blades that happens from time to time anyway, why not give it a
shot? You get the same pilots that put the aircraft there in the first place. Bring them back. Have
them get the plane out of there. Make it their responsibility.
[0:07:10] IP: There you go. There you go. Well, I mean, we'll keep an eye on it –
[0:07:14] JR: You put it there, you get it out.
[0:07:18] IP: Yes, I like that. We'll keep an eye on it, and if it does, in fact, fly again, we'll track it.
So, we have our first contestant in the – Mexico has been returned to category one. We're going
to add new routes in the name of Viva Aerobus. They are adding five new routes to the United
States post return to category one. So, they are the first, but by no means will they be the last to
add new routes to the US. That's good to see.
[0:07:49] JR: Yes. If you're interested in some of these routes, with Aerobus heading five new
dots in US to the map, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Miami, Florida, Oakland, California,
Orlando, Florida. So, kind of all over the place a little bit, and all of those are out of Monterrey,
which is interesting and operate less than daily. But for anyone trying to fight Trenton’s border
down to Mexico, this is a nice, nice development for you. I'm surprised that even took this long
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to get our first announcement and I'm sure other Mexican and US airlines will be right behind
Viva Aerobus announcing something.
[0:08:25] IP: Yes. Maybe it takes a while to get the filing in or something like that. But good to
see it happening, and we'll keep an eye on who else is adding new routes, because I'm sure it'll
start to fall into place rather quickly.
[0:08:38] JR: Yes.
[0:08:38] IP: This one is kind of unusual, in that when I looked at the data, it clearly showed an
issue. But then looking at the weather, there wasn't anything that really popped out at me. I'm
talking about JetBlue flight 1256, into which the NTSB is opening an investigation because the
aircraft suffered severe turbulence and eight people, including seven passengers, and one flight
attendant were injured as the aircraft passed near Jamaica at about 34,000 feet.
This is, I mean, not the first turbulence investigation that the NTSB has opened in recent
memory. Though, before I say they're becoming more common, I want to definitely check the
data on that one. But my anecdotal evidence detector says that this is becoming more common
where we're seeing the NTSB not necessarily that turbulence events are becoming more
common, but that the NTSB is then investigating them.
[0:09:43] JR: Yes. It's interesting to see what exactly they're investigating for. What are they
hoping to get out of this? Is it simply a human factor thing of like how are these passengers
injured onboard the aircraft, rather than why is this turbulence happening in the first place? I
assumed that's what the NTSB is looking at here, since if there are any recommendations they
can make on how to make the cabin safer. They'll do that. But yes, I don't really recall this kind
of thing happening in years past.
[0:10:12] IP: Yes, wear your seatbelt. Even when the seatbelt sign is off, wear your seatbelt.
[0:10:17] JR: That is sound advice, Ian.
[0:10:20] IP: It's the only kind of advice I have, I think. I hope.
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[0:10:23] JR: Excellent.
[0:10:22] IP: Let's see, just kind of bouncing around the board, I feel like that one contestant on
Jeopardy who just kind of bounced around the board, and it made all the other contestants
angry.
[0:10:31] JR: You never get the Double Daily. Just all over the place.
[0:10:34] IP: Yes. Just going all over the place. But this comes from an interview that SkyWest
CEO, Chip Childs, gave late last week, where he talked about the pilot shortage that SkyWest
has been facing, and put a number to it. So, SkyWest is down 1,200 pilots from 2019. In 2019,
they had 5,500 pilots, and they currently employ 4,300 pilots. He said, “We still have a major
pilot shortage. It’s having a huge impact on us as a company, the entire industry, and small
communities.” SkyWest, of course, is a regional carrier that flies for United Airlines, among
others. And he says, “We are literally 1,200 pilots short.”
[0:11:21] JR: Yes, I mean, the numbers check out if you look at plane spotters.net and look up
SkyWest. Of their 574 aircraft, they have 124 parked, which is a significant chunk of their fleet,
which I guess can be explained by those pilots that they do not have. Granted, 67 of those
aircraft are aging, unwanted CRJ200s, so the actual number is more like 43 CRJ700s, and a
little under a dozen CRJ900s, but those add up.
So, it's unfortunate to see them with so many aircraft that they just cannot operate because they
don't have the pilots. But to have an actual number assigned to that is wow. You're not fixing
that anytime soon.
[0:12:07] IP: But wait, there's more. Because as Jason mentioned, there are about 100 aircraft
parked. But here's the thing. There's also a big shortage of aircraft maintenance technicians.
So, even if you had 1,200 pilots to fly those aircraft tomorrow, which is not going to happen, but
even if you did, you would still have a squeeze on people who can make sure that those aircraft
are ready to fly.
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AVT 235 Transcript
[0:12:37] JR: And even if you had all of those aircraft mechanics in place, we don't have
enough air traffic controllers to route them through the sky anyway. So, I don't know if this is
exactly a supply chain thing. But it's a lot conspiring against these regional aircraft getting back
in the air anytime soon.
[0:12:54] IP: Yes.
[0:12:55] JR: If they did get in the air, they probably had severe turbulence anyway, right?
[0:12:57] IP: I mean, who knows at this point? You want to do some orders now?
[0:13:03] JR: Yes, that's the good stuff.
[0:13:04] IP: All right, here we go. Air France-KLM group has gone for the A350. I think this was
reported a couple of weeks ago, kind of previewed by Jon Ostrower over The Air Current.
[0:13:15] JR: With a taste, a preview.
[0:13:17] IP: Yes. John presents an interesting framing here. In a context of a fleet choice, Air
France-KLM group is going with the A350 in part, because those particular aircraft have the
range at the moment to make routes around Russian airspace work. Because Air France-KLM
and other airlines absolutely are operating under the same, I guess, set of priors. Russian
airspace is going to be unavailable to all of these Airlines for some years to come.
[0:13:50] JR: At least, through the range of the delivery of these aircraft, which ranges from
2026 to 2030.
[0:13:57] IP: I mean, this is an interesting thing where, I mean, geopolitics have always been a
consideration for aircraft purchasing, and which routes airlines are going to operate. But I mean,
this is physically a large problem that airlines are solving for by ordering specific aircraft. I think
that's something that we'll explore a bit more in the future, as we start talking about other kinds
of ultra-long-range routes coming online, beginning in the next few years.
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AVT 235 Transcript
[0:14:29] JR: Yes. So, this order covers 50 A350-900s and A350-1000s, which are a bit shorter
range, and an additional purchase rights for 40 of these aircraft. Like I mentioned, they're
expected delivery, which is always kind of air quoting these days from 2026 to 2030. These are
primarily to replace older aircraft, specifically, the Airbus A330, and older 777s. I assume the
777-200s that are getting quite elderly over at Air France. I think, some of these, it's fair to say,
we'll end up at KLM as well, not just at Air France. But we don't have any sort of breakdown of
which will go to Air France, which will go to KLM. But combined for the Air France-KLM group
that brings them up to 99 A350s on order, including the A350 dedicated freighter which Air
France-KLM is the launch operator, I believe, or launch customer for.
So, that's interesting. But I really wish Airbus had like a buy 99, get one free A350 on order.
Because 99 is just like one more. Come on. You need one more. Right?
[0:15:36] IP: I think they need one more.
[0:15:37] JR: Yes. One more, can't hurt.
[0:15:39] IP: All right. We'll write a letter or something and go from there.
[0:15:42] JR: Another interesting stat, Air France-KLM group says by 2028, the share of new
generation aircraft in the Air France-KLM fleet will reach 64% compared to just 5% in 2019. I
thought that was an interesting stat, and I'm happy they included that. Because I assume that
includes everything Neo, everything A350, everything 787 as well. So, that's a pretty major stat
there, 5% to 64% in just half a decade is pretty outstanding.
[0:16:15] IP: Yes. But Air France-KLM is not the only airline group to order some new aircraft
this week. On the other side of the ocean, and in another manufacturer’s pocket book comes Air
Canada, taking 18 787-10s. But Jason, no 777 freighters. They've canceled that order as part of
the 787 order, or in conjunction with it.
[0:16:40] JR: Interesting move. Interesting.
[0:16:43] IP: Well, a bit of a bummer.
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[0:16:44] JR: Yes. This order is for 18 787-10 aircraft with options for 12 more. The delivery
date for these is, I guess, somewhat soon, late 2025. Again, I'm air quoting because delivery
date estimates mean nothing these days, especially with Boeing. So, check back in a year or
two. I don't know whose delivery slots they may have taken. But these will last through the first
quarter of 2027.
Yes, very interesting that Air Canada only last year, had agreed to take two Boeing 777
dedicated freighters. And then, I guess, this 787-10 order they somehow, I don't know, maybe
traded them in or got credit for it. They just decided, “You know what, nah, we don't need those.
We're good with our 767s.”
[0:17:31] IP: Yes, we don't need it.
[0:17:32] JR: Yes. I mean, the aviation freight industry has cooled off substantially since
COVID. But only like not even a year, I think, it was maybe 11 months since they announced the
777 order. Very quick turnaround on that. But I don't know, that's good, being nimble and not
taking aircraft you don't actually need is a good thing.
[0:17:51] IP: And 777 freighters are not – they're not small. So, I mean, that's a lot of aircraft to
be stuck with if you reassessed your need and say, “You know what, we don't need that.” Air
Canada also has a number of aircraft in the conversion pipeline. So, you could say that the 767,
that's good enough for us. We're just going to stick with that and leave the 777s to somebody
else.
On the other side of things, though, IAI is opening up a new conversion house in Arizona for the
triple 777-300ERSF, also known, I guess, under the marketing name of The Big Twin, which I
think is kind of amusing still, but we'll go with it. That's going to open up a pair of conversion
lines for the 777-300ER into freighters. So, who knows, maybe Air Canada will come back once
those are open and take converted freighters instead of brand-new ones. I don’t know.
[0:18:43] JR: That’s possible. It has its own 300ERs, maybe it's more economical for them to
trash those from passenger to freight. I don't know. Buying an outright, brand-new, dedicated
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777 freighter, that's a lot more expensive than a conversion. So, maybe we'll hear more from Air
Canada soon.
[0:19:03] IP: I'm looking at Eric Kulisch’s article on FreightWaves, and he says they didn't call
me back when I asked why. They're keeping them on exactly why they did what they did so far.
But hopefully, we'll –
[0:19:13] JR: I'm sure they had a reason.
[0:19:14] IP: Jason, we're approaching the cliff, which is a possible US government shutdown.
And as we like to stay out of the politics of things, I just wanted to touch for a moment because
I'm sure there are a million other podcasts where that's the topic of discussion. But I do just
want to touch on for a moment, kind of some of the more interesting, or more less thought of
things that a government shutdown would affect. Of course, the aviation industry being denoted
as a critical industry keeps moving, things keep happening. Air traffic controllers still, like we
talked about last week, air traffic controllers still have to work. People that are entrusted with the
safety of aviation must continue to show up even when they're not getting paid.
But things that don't keep happening if the government is shut down, include ATC training. So,
while existing air traffic controllers still need to show up for work. Those who are currently in
training, don't get trained anymore. So, that backs up that pipeline even further. One of the
interesting things that I did not think about, which makes sense to me, is that the JetBlue-Spirit
merger trial, which is scheduled to begin next month, might be delayed.
[0:20:28] JR: Well, I mean, it's JetBlue related. So of course, it's going to be delayed. That is
just natural.
[0:20:34] IP: Oh, wow. That was a T-ball right there. That was some T-ball.
[0:20:36] JR: Thank you. You teed me up for that one. But the longer this is dragged on and
delayed, the better, because I just booked the Spirit flight the other day, and it was like $130
less than JetBlue. So, there's your evidence. I hope this goes on forever, and Spirit remains an
independent airline. I'm kind of afraid that the outcome of this trial might not go the way I want it
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to. So, I don't know, maybe that's good. But if we could avoid another government shutdown,
which anecdotally may have ended last time, because air traffic controllers said enough is
enough, and kind of staged an unofficial walkout, and kind of had a sickout, and that slowed
down, let's say, Congress people from getting to and from DC to do their job, had a hand in
expediting the end of the last government shutdown. I hope it doesn't come to that again. But if
we could just avoid that, go back to Washington and do your damn jobs.
[0:21:32] IP: There you go. We will leave that, but we'll stick with legal news. Here is an
interesting one following up on a story we talked about last week, where Akasa Air over the
summer and through this month, had to stop expansion and cut flying, because pilots left the
airline and went flying somewhere else. Akasa is now filing suit against those pilots saying they
did not give enough notice, and therefore, are in breach of their contracts. So, the airline is
saying that pilots were required to provide a six-month notice before leaving. They did not do
that. And therefore, they're filing suit in India's High Court.
A quote from Akasa says, “Our commitment to be reliable remains sacrosanct.” I love this quote.
“This means that we have chosen to fly less and give up market share in the short term in order
to offer more reliable network to our customers.”
[0:22:39] JR: Good on them. Go get them.
[0:22:41] IP: Very interesting scenario here. They're just not great, all around, especially if the
court rules in in favor of the airline, and then what happens to the pilots? Do they come back to
Akasa? Do they – I don't know what the end result here is. But it's going to be an interesting one
to follow.
[0:22:58] JR: Restitution? I don't know, kind of hard to drag them back forcibly to no job, but
maybe they get some restitution out of it. I don't know. Yet another case in the Indian aviation
drama sphere, which just doesn't seem to be relaxing anytime soon.
[0:23:17] IP: The drama sphere.
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AVT 235 Transcript
[0:23:16] JR: Between this the Pratt & Whitney Neo engines outright impacting Indian Airlines,
to a higher degree than most other regions, going off the schedule here. But Cranky Flier put
together a nice analysis of the airline's most impacted by the Pratt & Whitney PW1100G issues
and Indigo is probably one of the most exposed airlines in the world to this, other than Go First
which isn't even operating anymore. So, that's a fun twist. But between Indigo having half its
fleet exposed to being grounded, and Go First not flying at all, and Akasa having its pilots defect
to another airline. This is just one heck of a turbulent country, as far as just trying to get from A
to B is defined. This is never a dull moment.
[0:24:06] IP: Just to note on the Pratt & Whitney issues, a small note, but seemingly important
here. Pratt & Whitney is expanding its MRO capabilities at Singapore facilities, and they will
have a two-thirds increase in facility capacity. So further making sure that they can get aircraft
back in the air, get engines back on wings, even quicker than they've already had.
Good to see that they're doing this. They have 13 active geared turbofan MRO centers around
the world and they're going to have 6 more online by 2025, and it sounds like they're all going to
be needed.
[0:24:43] JR: And then some. Whatever they're adding, it's not going to be enough.
[0:24:47] IP: Add more.
[0:24:47] JR: There's still going to be quite a dramatic impact, but we will keep an eye on it, or
Brett Snyder will keep an eye on it for us, again.
[0:24:54] IP: There you go.
[0:24:55] JR: Good on him.
[0:24:57] IP: More good news. I mean, maybe not for you, but for the people of San Antonio
and the people of Frankfurt, I suppose. Condor is launching a Frankfurt-San Antonio route
beginning next year. I did not see that one coming.
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[0:25:12] JR: No. But I'm assuming there is some degree of subsidies or financial incentive for
Condor, which is fine, and normal, happens all the time. But San Antonio is not an airport I
expected to get transatlantic service from a well-known airline. This is not a North Atlantic, sorry,
or a Norwegian. This is Condor. This is a legitimate, well-known airline, at least, in my opinion.
Again, Cranky Flier, that guy's everywhere today. Put together a pretty good analysis of why two
very similar Texas cities being San Antonio and Austin, have dramatically different international
services while Austin BA and had Condor, Norwegian, Lufthansa, KLM, Virgin Atlantic. San
Antonio had absolutely nothing, and there's some interesting socio economic and other
reasons, well, just looking at the companies that are in Austin like Amazon, Apple, IBM, and then
the companies that are in San Antonio, being what a burger, and USAA, and I think a cheese
burger. Another cheeseburger – no H-E-B. What is that? That's a supermarket, right?
[0:26:24] IP: Supermarket.
[0:26:25] JR: Supermarket. I'm probably pronouncing it wrong. We're going to get a lot of hate
mail. But we don't have that here. We have different supermarkets than you. But it's interesting
to see an airport like San Antonio get international service – not just international because they
already have service to Mexico. But transatlantic service on an A330neo, nonetheless, with a
really premium business class. That's great for them.
[0:26:45] IP: Yes. So, quoting the San Antonio Express News, which has an article on this.
Jason is correct, of course. They are offering some concessions to the airline in order to begin
seasonal service.
[0:26:56] JR: Again, not out of the ordinary. This happens all the time.
[0:26:59] IP: No. This is completely normal. This goes back to a lot of things we talked about.
But one of the big head scratchers that we had was the Lufthansa-St. Louis flight, which a
podcast listener helpfully wrote in and explained, and it was good to see them at Dorkfest a few
weeks ago. But basically, there's one company buying all these tickets and the City of St. Louis
said, “Here's a whole bunch of money”, along the way.
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But in the Condor-San Antonio case, Condor is getting $1.5 million in fee waivers and marketing
grants. And the greater San Antonio, Texas and Visit San Antonio Visitor, and Conventions
Bureau has an agreement with the airlines to pay the airline if passenger numbers do not hit a
certain level. So basically, there's a floor, a revenue floor for the airline guaranteed.
[0:27:49] JR: It’s a win-win for Condor. They either fill the plane up and make a profit, or they
don't fill the plane up, and somebody pays them, and they make a profit. So, why not? If you've
got the aircraft to spare, do it.
[0:28:00] IP: Yes. One of the interesting things as well here, as far as this kind of particular flight
goes. It seems like condors going to be the first of what San Antonio hopes is a much larger
expansion of international traffic. They're spending about two and a half billion dollars to expand
the airport. And they're hoping that this kicks off a major expansion for San Antonio in the
airport. So, it'll be interesting to see if this works out. Do other airlines come in and say, “All
right, we'll give it a shot now.” Then, what are they going to demand as far as concessions go?
Or San Antonio say, “No, no. Condor was first and you can all just pay your own way.”
[0:28:42] JR: We'll see.
[0:28:44] IP: We will see. So, this is an interesting one, and one that we've talked about a few
times in the context of individual reports. But it's interesting to see IATA paying attention to this
as well. Mark Searle who is IATA’s global safety director was speaking at the World Safety and
Operations Conference in Hanoi, and gave a presentation on why IATA is concerned about the
timely release of aviation incident and accident final reports.
So, the overarching concern is that the investigations that are being conducted aren't being
reported on in a timely manner. So, airlines, especially those that are looking to aviation safety
investigators, to tell them, is there something wrong with this aircraft? Is there something that
pilots are doing that we should make sure our pilots don't do, to make sure that this aircraft
doesn't crash, because we operate the same aircraft in our fleet? So, LATAM’s head of safety
gave a presentation on the issue and of 242 accidents between 2018 and the middle of this
year, just slightly less than half have had their final accident investigation report published.
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[0:29:58] JR: It's interesting.
[0:30:00] IP: Yes. The time to reporting is lengthened.
[0:30:04] JR: Yes. I mean, even here in the US with the NTSB, I feel like we are often very
quickly getting an initial report, which they are obligated to do within a two-week window. And
then the final report often seems to take a very, very, very long time to get. I mean, there are
cases where I'm thinking of like the American A321, taking off from JFK that almost rolled over,
but thankfully didn't. It took years to get that final report, after an initial report was put out,
basically said nothing. It was radio silence for years.
So, I understand that airlines would want these final reports in a more timely manner. But if
there are X number of reports and Y number of investigators, you're only going to be able to put
out so many final reports. So, I guess what they're asking for is more investigators? Would that
be it? How else do you solve that?
[0:30:55] IP: That's an interesting question, because in the US, the NTSB says that it is
currently hiring more investigators, or hiring more investigators, and they're hopeful that they will
continue to clear the backlog faster. So, plenty of open positions at the NTSB now, if you want to
join the NTSB, but also, they've already hired a bunch of people and will continue to do so. So
yes, I think that's a big part of it.
But also, I think there's some things playing into it here, where we're looking at, to use the crash
that occurred in China a few years ago now, where China Eastern 737-800, crashed into a
mountainside, and there's no report yet. And the 737-800 is perhaps the most widely flown
aircraft around the world, and leasing commercial.
[0:31:49] JR: That's a tricky one. But part of me feels like we're never going to get that final
report, because we all know what happened, or we all think we know what happened. I think
that particular government isn't one that will ever want to admit what we all know, and that's
what happened. So, that's an interesting example to pick. There still needs to be a final report. It
still needs to be issued and it can still be questioned by the international community. But yes,
they do need to eventually issue something, because I'm pretty sure the investigation on that
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one probably stopped the day it began. And here we are years later and there's still nothing. So
yes, that's a very, very interesting topic for IATA to bring up. Good on them for that.
[0:32:28] IP: Speaking of I guess, an incident that will certainly require a report or has required
report, this was an odd one, Jason, that you flagged. What happened to an Air Canada Dash 8
or I should say, Canada Jazz Dash 8?
[0:32:41] JR: Yes, Air Canada branded. Let’s go Air Canada Express branded. A Dash 8 on a
maintenance flight, so there were no passengers on this, had work done to replace a spoiler
cable and was carrying out a test flight at a Toronto Pearson, September 6th. This article comes
to us as usual these days from Flight Global, and there was an issue where there was an
unsafe gear indication with the left main gear. They did their analysis, their troubleshooting, their
quick analysis of what was going on in the air. They climb to 5,000 feet tucked. They use their
quick reference handbook procedures, and they landed without incident. But when investigators
literally dug into the aircraft to find out why did this happen, and I'm quoting here, “Subsequent
investigation determined that the tool found was an extension magnetic tool, not under the
operator's control, and lacking any identification markers.” So, they actually found an
unidentified tool that interfered with the gear mechanism on this Dash 8. “The operator
conducted research into prior maintenance in the area, but found no documented reason for the
tool to be located there.” That's really interesting.
So, whatever happened here, in the investigation, they found an unidentified tool with no
markings in an area where there had been no documented maintenance. That's all sorts of
interesting. It raises a lot of questions. Was this a tool that was left there during the manufacture
of the aircraft? Or was this some unapproved, undocumented repair of the aircraft? Was
someone working on the aircraft using an unapproved tool, just to make life easy, and then
forgot about it? I don't know. But that is not something you hear of all that often.
[0:34:19] IP: Yes. An extension magnetic tool. So, I'm thinking it's some sort of pole with a
magnet on it? Did they like roll over it? It magnetized to the area and got jammed in there?
That's an interesting one. Just a very strange set of circumstances –
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[0:34:35] JR: Then for it to coincidentally happen, impact on a maintenance fight with no
passengers. That's a mighty big coincidence, too.
[0:34:40] IP: Yes. Okay, let's close the show with a discussion that we love to talk about, and
that of course, I refer to slot usage at Tokyo's Haneda Airport. I mean, who doesn't love that?
[0:34:52] JR: I mean, I'm going to use in part with several hundred other people, one of those
slots coming up in November.
[0:35:00] IP: There you go. Love those slots. Go ahead, Jason. You have actually been
following on this one more closely than I.
[0:35:06] JR: Yes, the Haneda slots are a very contentious topic here in the US. The USDOT
and the US airlines are only granted so many of these prime slots to Haneda. Think of it like
LaGuardia. You can only operate to Haneda as you would LaGuardia. You have slots. They are
divvied out to airlines and only those airlines can only operate to that airport at that given time.
The DOT had kind of, not really an option, but it divvied up the slots to the US major airlines. But
they did that with the express conditions that the airlines had to apply with specific routes in
mind. One of those routes happened to be granted to Delta for Portland to Tokyo Haneda.
But Delta, I guess overestimated the demand on that particular, and never really launched the
route in earnest. It would operate it at the absolute bare minimum required amount of flights. It
operated once every three months or something like that. I'm making that up for dramatic effect,
but it was something like exceptionally rarely at the absolute minimum requirement would Delta
operate this flight, and eventually finally, Delta said, “You know what, okay, we don't need it.”
And it returned to the USDOT. At that point, United absolutely pounced on the opportunity to
apply to operate from Houston to Haneda, and also Guam to Haneda, which is an interesting
option. If you get a chance to read the press release, and also the actual United DOT filing,
there's a lot of snark and a lot of condescension on Delta, on United's part to get those slots.
But we will see –
[0:36:41] IP: Lawyers with too much time on their hands.
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[0:36:43] JR: A lot of these DOT filings from the US airlines are actually quite sarcastic and
overly dramatic and interesting, and this one is no exception. But it is interesting that United said
if you grant us these rights to Haneda, we will start operating them as soon as feasibly possible
coming up, as soon as December of this year. Even if we haven't had a chance to put it on sale
yet, we're going to start operating it. That's how badly we want these routes. And that's just an
interesting twist.
[0:37:08] IP: You have a plane sitting at the end of the runway right now. We are feeling it while
it’s running.
[0:37:15] JR: It’s constantly revving its engines ready to go. It's just interesting to see a
conclusion of something where Delta was really screwing around with these slots and had
clearly no intention to ever fly. And at the same time, United said, “You know what, since we're
talking about it, we've already had our sights set on these Delta sites. What we also want to do
is take the slots from Hawaiian. They're not using them, so we'll take those too.” But Ned
Russell reports from the Skift Forum in New York this week that Hawaiian claimed it intends to
use those slots at some point. But much like delta has not actually done so. But I am, oh, for
United taking these slots, if it's actually going to launch flights, and I don't know, maybe fares
come down a little bit.
[0:37:54] IP: There you go. I mean, that's always nice when fewer dollars come out of my
pocket, I'm in favor of that.
[0:38:03] JR: Yes. And there are not many real-world applications of the term, use it or lose it.
But in this case, Delta didn't use its slots. So, it's losing them. Good. That's how it should be.
[0:38:13] IP: There you go. On that note, we shall end this particular episode of the podcast. If
you've enjoyed this episode, or any of the previous episodes, or if you're thinking to yourself,
“You know what, I have some ideas about how this could be better.” Let us know. Email us at
podcast@fr24.com, or leave a rating and a review wherever you get your podcasts so that other
people can learn about this particular podcast. Find it, listen to it, and then they can email us
and tell us how to make the podcast better.
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AVT 235 Transcript
But in the meantime, this has been episode 235 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik here, as always,
with –
[0:38:53] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Thanks for listening.
[END]
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