924: Week 6 Sleepers

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacheratha j J zacher reefan, what's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode nine and twenty four of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's Sleeper Show results. They weren't terrible, but they weren't great. Romeo Dobbs didn't even end up playing, and we all know how Dantavian Wix's week went. Deshaun Watson was pathetic in a PLUS matchup and that resulted in a poor Jerry Judy game. Gabe Davis n Emmanuel Wilson did nothing too, but Trevor Lawrence had a good game against the Colts and Joe Flacco had a good game against the Jags. Trey Sermon was fine, Wandel Robinson had a good game, Keyon Coleman thankfully caught a long one, Josh Downs was solid, Roshawn Johnson scored twice, and Tucker Kraft had a monster day. So overall, like I said, definitely not terrible. Now, before we get to this week's sleep I want to remind you about Underdog. Underdog is the best place to play fantasy sports. You can play pick them in Champions mode, or if you're like me, you can join some snake drafts for each week's slate of games. During October, Underdog's running a different promo every single day with Boost Tober. You can take advantage of those promos by signing up today, and if you sign up, you'll also get access to my rest of season rankings, which are updated in season every Tuesday. All you have to do is head to Underdog Fantasy dot Com or download the Underdog app. Sign up, and when you do, use promo code late Round. That'll get you access to the promos, a deposit bonus, and again my rest of season rankings. I'm telling you, Underdog is so much fun. Check it out now with promo code Late Round. This first tier includes players rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues.

00:01:52
Speaker 2: Who you might want to start this week.

00:01:54
Speaker 1: We've got a lot of injuries, we got a lot of bye weeks. You may need some help at quarterback. I really like Daniel Jones. I mentioned him on the fifteen Transaction Show earlier this week because he's been playing really well. He set eighteen plus Fantasy points in three of his last four. He's fifth in the NFL and quarterback rushes, and he gets a Bengals defense. It's been the fifth most desirable matchup for quarterbacks this year. The Giants actually have the eleventh best implied team total on this week. Slate sportsbooks know that his Bengals defense has been struggling. That makes him a fun play this week. You could also look at Andy Dalton in this tier. He's rostered in just over ten percent of leagues, and while I don't feel as good about him as I do Danny Dimes, I do think he's okay as a streamer, just okay. The Panthers get the Falcons in the game with a decent forty seven and a half point over under, and the Falcons have been an above average matchup for quarterbacks this year. Now, I know Andy Dalton wasn't great last week, but he also played the Bears. The Bears have been the toughest matchup for quarterbacks this season. This one's a little bit better, so he could come away with a score or two. Now, Jonathan Taylor didn't practice on Wednesday, so he might be out again this week. If he is that, we should expect a combination of Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson. Once again, Sermon is the preferred choice here, but keep in mind he's also banged up in Week five. Though Sermon had the snapshare advantage, he handled more work on the ground too. Goodson, though, did run more routes even if Sermon had a better target share. According to Fantasy Life data, they split long down and distant snaps. Basically, what I'm getting at is that this is a split backfield, with Tray Sermon basically being the one A in that backfield as long as he's healthy. But the matchup's kind of mid. Tennessee's been below average for running backs this year and adjusted points allowed. However, they do rank third and adjusted target share allowed that could elevate the floors for both of these players in PPR formats. Ramandre Stevenson has banged up right now and at this moment, no one knows if he's gonna play this weekend. Obviously, that means that Antonio Gibson could then see a big workload. Here's the thing, though, this has been a really tough matchup for running backs this year. They've allowed the second fewest adjusted points in the season to the position, and they're actually a top two team and adjusted target share allowed to the position in a bad way. So Gibson works strictly on volume, but do keep in mind that the matchup is not ideal. Now, on the flip side, you have Tyler Algier who may not see a ton of volume, but the Falcons get the Panthers this week, and the Panthers have not been great against running backs. They've been fine on a per rush basis, mostly averaging yards over expected allowed per rush and EPA allowed per rush, but teams are running the ball against them, which isn't that surprising this defense. The Carolina Panthers defense has faced the second lowest pass rate against them this season. That's largely due to game script and matchup. That's great though for someone like Tyler Algeer. The Falcons are six point favorites and Algier is average of forty three percent running back rush share over his last two he should be fine. That logic is pretty similar for Roshan Johnson too. He was able to take advantage of that Carolina matchup last week. He's consistently been seeing running back rush share rates of about thirty one percent over his last three games, and he's seen four goal line attempts during this stretch, DeAndre Swift has seen five, but Swift has only scored once on those five. Roshan Johnson has scored three times. Swift has minus seven yards on those attempts, Johnson has four. Johnson has been the better goal line back, and this is something that we've seen with DeAndre Swift throughout his career. He's not a great back at the goal line. So we might see that again this week because the Bears get the Jags. The Jags have been really bad against the pass, but they've also been bad against the run. They've run into the third most adjusted fantasy points of the running back position, So I think you could do worse than Roshan Johnson this week. Now, a wide receiver Josh Downs, for whatever reason, he's still below the fifty percent roster mark over on Yahoo. Downs has now seen a twenty nine percent target share per game RN and his three games played this year, and the Colts get the Titans this week. Now, Tennessee's actually been pretty good against wide receivers this season. They rank second best and the adjusted Fantasy points allowed Metric, but their opponents have targeted slot receivers against them pretty often.

00:06:15
Speaker 2: The Titans rank first and adjusted slot.

00:06:18
Speaker 1: Target share allowed to wide receivers this year, so that's target share to slot wide receivers adjusted for strength of opponent. That could mean a good day once again for Josh Downs because he's run eighty nine percent of his routes out of the slot this year according to PFF. Now, Romeo Dobbs should be back this week after he was suspended in Week five. I don't mind him against Arizona. He's been the Packers' top wide receiver by routes run when he's been active this year, and the Cardinals are an average opponent to wide receivers on paper. This recommendation really comes down to the fact that Dobbs should be running routes and this game against Arizona is giving the Packers the third best implied team total on this week's slate. Arizona has faced pretty run heavy offense this year in neutral gamescript environments, teams are running the ball against.

00:07:04
Speaker 2: Them, but overall.

00:07:06
Speaker 1: I don't think this environment is that bad for Romeo Dobbs, given the Packers are supposed to score a lot of points in that same game. As Michael Wilson, Green Bay struggled a bit against wide receivers to start the year, but most importantly, Wilson himself, he's getting looks in this Arizona offense. He hasn't dipped below a twenty one percent target share in any of his last three games. He's seen just two fewer targets than Marvin Harrison Junior during this time. In a game where Arizona might trail, Wilson's an okay enough wide receiver four type play.

00:07:38
Speaker 2: Now.

00:07:39
Speaker 1: Jalen Tolbert had a big game against the Steelers his past week, and without Brandon Cooks in the lineup, he ended up hitting season highs in role participation, targets per route run, and target share. If that maintains into Week six, he could be in a good spot for production. Dallas gets Detroit in a game with a fifty two and a half point over under, and the Lines have been the third best team for wide receivers this year and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. Now, moving on to tight end, there's a handful of them this week. We'll start with our usual suspects, the guys who are running a lot of routes who may not be the centerpieces of their offenses, but they're kind of higher end, mid range tight end twos each week. The first is Tyler Conklin Cardio. Conklin is now tied with Travis Kelcey for the league lead and route participation. He's seen at least a seventeen percent target share in each of his last three games, and the Jets get the Bills this week. While Buffalo has been really bad against running backs, they've been really good against wide receivers, and they've been really okay against tight ends. I do expect the Jets backfield duo to have a good game, but Conklin can be okay too. Kate Atton is third in the NFL and tight end route participation, and like Tyler Conklin, he's been seeing more work in his offense. He's had target shaars of twenty five percent, nineteen percent, and seventeen percent over his last three and there's nothing scary about New Orleans as an opponent. The only downside I think is that there's less back and forth action potentially this week with Derek Carr sidelined, so the Bucks might not throw it as much. But I think Kay Totten's okay, and then I like Zach Ertz this week in neutral gamescript environments. No defense has faced a higher pass rate this year than the Baltimore Ravens, so I expect Washington to throw the ball more than usual this week. That could be good for Zach Ertz. He's basically been right around the top ten in rout participation and targets here at tight end this year, so I think Ertz is a decent play. And then before we move on to the deeper plays, I got a shout out Taysom Hill. Without Derek Carr, there's a chance that we see more Hill. He's just got to be healthy, and as of right now at the time of this recording, I don't know if he is, but if he plays, he's a very intriguing tight end option. We're now looking at players roster in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues deep sleepers at quarterback. We have to admit that Will Levis on paper in a good spot. The Cults are the fourth best matchup for quarterbacks by justin fantasy points allowed, and Levis hasn't faced a matchup this easy on paper all year. They played games against the Bears, Jets, Packers, and Dolphins. Three of those four teams rank in the top five as most difficult matchups for quarterbacks by adjusted points allowed. It's no coincidence that his most usable start came against the Packers, the one.

00:10:25
Speaker 2: Team that doesn't rank as high.

00:10:28
Speaker 1: Basically, the Cults are the easiest matchup that Will Levis has had all year, so I'm intrigued by that. I'm intrigued by him as a deeper sleeper as long as he plays. We've got a pair of rookies playing this week too. I prefer Drake May given the pedigree, given the rushing upside, and there could be a negative game script for New England against Houston Spencer Rattler. He's mostly interesting because the matchup is better on paper, he's got a better team environment around him. Now, we don't have any data on these guys, obviously, and I think that you should only go a rookies direction when you're desperate. But they're not in terrible, terrible spots in Week six now running back in this tier, we've got to look at that Houston backfield. Joe Mixon didn't practice again on Wednesday. His status continues to be up in the air, but Damian Pierce did. We've seen cam Akers go from an eighty two percent running back rush are in week three to a sixty two percent one in week four to a thirty eight percent one in week five. He's seeing less and less work dar A Goombawallea. He was the back that you wonted in their game last week. If Damian Pierce ends up playing, he'd beat my bet to see the most work on the ground for Houston, and I'd imagine a Goomba walle is more of the receiving thread, but Pierce is more interesting because this is a game against the Patriots where the Texans will likely see a positive game script. So don't sleep on Damian Pierce if he does return this week. That game has two wide receiver sleepers in it too. Jalen Polk is one of them. Polk ran a route on every New England drop.

00:11:58
Speaker 2: Back last week. He's seen back to back.

00:12:00
Speaker 1: Games with a twenty percent target chair. Houston's been in above average matchup for wide receivers this year in terms of a justin fantasy points allowed, and they've seen their wide receiver targets against them go to the perimeter more frequently than all but one team, and that's adjusted for strength of opponent. That's where Jalen Polk lines up, and then with Nico Collins out, Xavier Hutchinson should get more run for the Texans. That's at least what we saw last week. Hutchinson basically played as a starter without Collins. He finished with an eight percent target chair. That's not a high number, but he didn't play the full game. So if he's a starter in this offense, he needs to be on all of our radars. Now, I think the safer bet for a deeperish sleeper out of Vegas is Trey Tucker. Like, we can't have Jacobe Myers as a sleeper because he's rostered in way too many leagues. But I'm gonna go back to my go to matchup and that slot receivers against the Steelers and with DeVante Adams out, the way the Raiders have deployed their wideouts is by having DJ Turner at their primary slot guy.

00:13:02
Speaker 2: Not to be confused with DJ Tanner.

00:13:04
Speaker 1: Over the last two weeks without Adams, Turner has run fewer routes in boat of Kobe Myers and Trey Tucker. That's not surprising, that's why you're preferring those wide receivers. But he's seen a slot rate of eighty eight percent, and he's coming off a game where he had an eleven percent target share and his seventy six percent rale participation rate. This is only a deep deep league play. I'm talking deep, but I do think the matchup is there. Lastly, I've got one tight end in this tier. It's Chigakonquo. The Colts are bad defensively. They rank us the third best matchup for tight ends by justin fantasy points allowed this year. They've also given up the eighth highest adjusted target share to the tight end position. A Conko saw season high seventy four percent rale participation the last time that we saw the Titans. That led to an eighteen percent target share, so he's not a bad dart throat. When it comes to streaming defenses this week, I like the Chargers against the Broncos the most out of the more highly available defenses. I also think that you could look at Tampa Bay against Spencer Rattler, and then Atlanta against Carolina and Andy Dalton. Overall, though it's a tougher week for streaming. Lastly, we got to look at some pickums over an underdog. Last week, we had Trevor Lawrence going higher in his passing yards that one hit. It's actually been a good couple of weeks with these picks. This week, I'm looking at zach Ertz higher than twenty seven and a half receiving yards, and then we'll go with Tyler Algeer higher than half of a touchdown. So we're saying that Tyler Algier is going to score just to ease the tilt a little bit for when Bijon Robinson doesn't get that touchdown. You guys know how that goes. You can use those if you'd like to by heading to Underdog Fantasy dot com. Make sure if you're new there and you're signing up, you use promo code Late Round. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB.

00:14:58
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening everyone.

00:14:59
Speaker 1: As as usual, tomorrow I will drop the Mailbag episode and then later in the day you get another episode of Late Round Perspectives.

00:15:06
Speaker 2: I'll talk to you then