1084: NFL Combine Winners and Losers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha JJ zacher reefon what's up everyone. It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode ten eighty four of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Before I get to the topic today, I just want to send another reminder that the Late Round Prospect Guide is currently available for pre order and it's better than ever. This year's guide includes an outline of what goes into the models, prospect profiles for every running back, wide receiver and tight end who is at the combine over thirty year two profile write ups. There's rankings and more. It'll launch in mid March, so pre order it now at fourteen ninety nine because that's going to rise to nineteen ninety nine in just a couple of weeks. You can find out more over on lateround dot com. When I tell people that I have prospect models, they often respond with something NFL combine related that if I'm inputting a bunch of data, clearly the combine is going to play a role and how well the model likes a player. But really, there aren't a ton of inputs in the models that have to deal with the NFL combine sort of speed score matters for running backs and tight ends, and heightened weight measurements. Those are all taken from the NFL combine, So I can't say that nothing matters of the combine as it relates to the ZAPT model. But I've seen a lot of discourse on social media this week about what does and doesn't matter, how wide receiver forties are irrelevant, how this drill or that drill, how none of it really matters, at least analytically. I don't totally agree with all of that, because not only are their direct inputs for me, like height, weight, and speed score, but draft capital is the single most important input in these ZAT models where these dudes get drafted. And even though it's true that NFL teams often overdraft wide receivers when they're really, really fast, how players perform in the combine is still more than likely having an impact on draft capital when you think of it from perspective. Even if our little models in our corner of this football world may not care that much about what happens in Indianapolis each year, what's happening in Indie is still having a pretty real impact on the landscape overall at running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Now, as you know, the combine just concluded for this year's class, and naturally there's a lot to talk about. On today's show, I'm gonna go through who I think are the biggest winners and losers from that combine. Keeping this whole draft capital impact in mind, let's do it. One of the main stories from this year's combine was how fast the wide receiver group was. We had eleven wideouts run faster than a four four forty. Those one of the highest marks that we've seen at the combine dating back to when the thing started. This is going to undoubtedly get a lot of players pushed up draft boards who probably shouldn't be pushed up draft boards. Some of them I don't mind as players necessarily, but the vast majority of them have serious problems with their production profiles. Like Zacharai branch I talked about this at length in The Perspective's episode last week. But Branch to me fits the mold of the type of wide receiver that's just completely burned teams in the past consistently. This is straight from this year's Prospect Guide. It says if Branch is selected inside the top one hundred, as NFL Mock Draft database currently projects, he'll be the eleventh player drafted in that range since twenty twenty with a career behind the line target share above thirty percent, and the first to exceed forty percent. Only two players in that bucket, Wandel Robinson and Luther Burden, posted breakout scores above seventy five, which, by the way, Zacharia Branch way below that seventy five mark. The others Lynn Boden, Amari Rodgers, Anthony Schwartz, Kadarius Tony, Rondel Moore, Vaalis Jones, Trey Tucker, and Malachi Corley. I know you guys have heard this before. I've said this now multiple times in the podcast, but it's important to repeat. Zachariah Branch's production profile is not very strong. And then there's Dion Burks. Burks is getting some love from bigger name draft experts. An NFL mock Draft database right now has him as a potential Day two pick, but he has a one point three to five career yards per rout run rate that's third worse than the class. Since twenty twenty, The ZAP model has twenty four wide receivers who have entered the league with career yards per out run rates below one point five. The only one to provide any meaningful fantasy production is Josh Palmer. Jeff Caldwell tested like an absolute beast when his production profile isn't overly special. Brenton Thompson, he's kind of interesting as like a tank down maybe Calvin Austin type player, and he ran the fastest forty of the group that was expected. But even his production profile has some flaws. And there's Bryce Lance, Trey Lance's brother. He tested really, really well. He ran a four to three four forty at six three two oh four. I guarantee you that people are gonna fall in love with him. They're gonna that Christian Watson comp on him and go after him in rookie drafts, and look for any of these guys. I see the vision. I see the vision with Bryce Lance. I don't think they're autobus. I'm just telling you that a lot more marks don't favor them than do favor them. For Lance, he broke out very late, to the point where he doesn't even have a breakout score in the model, and he's gonna be over twenty four and a half years old at draft time. That's a clear red flag, even if that upside case is evident. There's a lot of that in this year's class. I allude to this on the wide receiver prospects who produce like studs episode, but I do think we're bound to see one or two of these guys really buck some trends this year, just because of the sheer number of wide receivers in this class who are fine but not special. Fine prospects will slip through the cracks. I'm talking about fine analytically, and sometimes every once in a while athleticism will translate. So I'm not gonna be shocked to some like Bryce Lance makes a legit impact in the NFL. It's just that over the long run, if you generally fade the uber athletes who didn't produce in college, you're gonna win out. And when I say producing college, I mean good age adjusted production, and there's a lot of that in this year's class. The combine really showed that we have some really good athletes, but the production profiles they're not amazing. Nevertheless, all those guys that I just mentioned they were winners. I'd expect better draft Capital. Now that the combine is over, Jeremiah Love was already far and away the best running back in this year's class, and nothing from the combine remotely changed that. I've had a lot of people ask me if he's better than Bejon Robinson or Jamior Gibbs or Ashen Gente as a prospect, if the Zap model likes him more or less, And the answer is that the Zap Model still likes him less. But as I've discussed, it really doesn't matter. He's still an incredibly great prospect, and his comps they are just stud after stud after stud. I really don't want people to get hung up on the fact that he's gonna likely be an elite producer as opposed to a legendary performer. These are tags within the Zap model. That's just a quick and dirty label to help us wrap our heads around the scores. To me, he's a fantastic prospect, and his four to three six forty at two hundred and twelve pounds, which gave him a one hundred and seventeen speed score, that just cemented that the model just has a decent amount of weight for the receiving metrics, and his receiving numbers in college, they were great, not excellent. Love is the rookie one oh one in all formats. I actually don't think it's very close when you consider the hit rates for these early first round running backs and the talent and size profile that he's bringing to the table, and with so many running backs not even running the forty at the combine this year, and with the position just being super thin overall, Jeremiah Love is a clear, clear winner stemming from the combine. Now, like I just talked about this running back class, it hasn't had this obvious RB two in it. I talked about Emmett Johnson possibly being that guy because of his great receiving profile. I'll talk about him in just a second. But the running back who probably saw his stock rise most, who someone now places the RB two in this class was Mike Washington out of Arkansas. Now, Washington had a minor red flag and adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt within the ZAP model, but overall the production profile could be worse. He had a best season reception share above twelve percent. His best season in adjusted yards per team play was one point eighty seven. That was fifth best in the class. Maybe he's a little bit older, but he won't be twenty three until the summer. I'm not even that concerned about age. Meanwhile, his size is good. He's six foot one, two hundred and twenty three pounds, and at that size he ran a four to three three point forty at the combine. That is absurd. That generated the second best speed score in ZAP model history, trailing Onlykeith Marshall, and he barely trailed Marshall. Speed scores an input in the ZAP model. So Washington's great speed score gave him a little bit of a bump to his overall ZAPP score. But I think it's unbelievably important to know that it doesn't just completely change his outlook. In fact, if he ran a four to four to three instead of a four to three three without any change in draft capital, his ZAP score would barely change at all. What I think happened with Washington, though, is what I said at the top. Even at running back, a showing like that can improve a player's draft stock. It will improve it, especially when there's no clearcut RB two in this draft class. Washington has a pretty good profile. Now, I don't think it's elite, but I think it's good enough to the point where I wouldn't be shocked if he goes Day two in the draft, and in this running back class where it's pretty weak after Jeremiah Love, that matters a lot. Now, speaking of Emmett Johnson, let's talk about him. Something that we all need to keep in mind is that these days, when players tested the combine, in my opinion, it's for one of two reasons. Number One, they're not locked into a particular draft spot, and they want to prove their worth, even if they're not as athletic as they probably should be. I'm talking like day three picks who want to prove that they can be Day two guys or undrafted players who just want to get drafted. They want to show why they should be drafted, so they test. And then number two, they test because they just know they're athletic. Jeremiah Love did this. He was gonna go high no matter what, but he saw an opportunity to just lock that in, whereas other players often don't want to risk that. What that means is that we're moving more and more to a sample of players who are just generally athletic because the players who aren't athletic are waiting for their pro days to test. Now, with all that being said, Emmett Johnson posted the worst speed score in the class at ninety three point four, which honestly wasn't a huge surprise if you watch him play. He's not a long speed guy. Actually, his ten yard split was more middle of the road in this class. That just plays into the long speed idea even more. Now. I'm not overly concerned about that speed score. We've seen this pass catching archetype not bring the craziest speed scores in the past. The problem for Johnson, in my opinion, was that he decided to do the three cone and he was the only running back to do it, and it resulted in like a twenty fifth percentile rate. I'm at the point with Emmett Johnson where I think he needs to find a very specific landing spot in order to thrive in fantasy football as a three down back. His top comps in the model are Michael Carter, Kenneth Gainwell, and James White. All of them had their moments, and I think Johnson can have his too, But to be a kyn Williams type, he needs to find a team that's going to just fall in love with him the way the Rams did with Williams. And maybe there's like an Aaron Jones like outcome here too. But all of these situations just tells you that we need some nuance when evaluating Johnson and his transition the NFL. Overall, it was an l for him at this year's combine, even within this below average running back class. Jeremy Bernard continues to be a very tough prospect for me during this draft cycle. I know a lot of analytical models they're not gonna like him. He had a career one point nine yards per out run rate and typically Day two wide receivers have underperformed versus draft capital expectation by almost two PPR points per game when they've been under that two point zero mark. But the ZAP model looks at versatility too, and Bernard had that. He got rushing work. And I've said this before in the show, but Bernard played in Washington before going to Alabama. He was on that team with Jalen Polk, Jayleen McMillan, Romadunze, and Denzel Boston, and he was able to see a lot more production in that offense than Boston did. Now, they are different types of wide receivers, but I still think that's noteworthy. Bernard ran a solid forty at two hundred and six pounds, and then he went out hit the best three cone of any player at the combine. That fits his profile pretty well. He's quick, he's a good yards after the catch guy. He's got the right build for that kind of thing, that kind of role. I do think that we could be looking at a Paris Campbell type prospect, though that's the fear that's in his range of outcomes. In fact, so many of his comps in the ZAP model consists of bus unfortunately, but even if the analytics community is more out than in with Bernard, I'm still kind of intrigued, especially after this good combine. I thought ted Hurst was another winner at this year's Combine. I've let it be known that I don't think he has the greatest production profile in the world, especially when adjusted for strength of schedule he played at Georgia State. His breakout score at ranks in the fifty fourth percentile. That's good, it's not great. His best season in yards per team pass attempts was only two point one four, But there's definitely some intrigue with this archetype. It's often a go big or go home archetype. It's a high variance one and post combine. According to the Zapp model, his third best comp is Nico Collins. Now that's not even considering the fact that he had a ninety fifth percentile speed score while having the best broad jump in the class. Considering herst is coming from a smaller program at Georgia State, having a good combine was so important, and in my opinion, he had a great one. Carnal Tate was listed at six three, one hundred and ninety five pounds in college. At the combine, he came in at six foot two, one hundred and ninety two pounds. It's not significant, but it is a little bit smaller than what we initially thought. That wasn't the problem for Tait though. The bigger issue was he's a vertical threat who ran a four to five three forty. Now after that forty, there's a tweet that came out from Adam Schefter and it said, quote Ohio state wide receiver Carnel Tate, a potential top ten pick, was timed by several NFL executives and gms on Saturday with a forty time in the range of four four five to four four seven seconds. Although the comp buying registers official times, teams always conduct their own timing, and those measurements with some teams were lower than his clocks four or five to two, which actually was a four or five to three. What I found funny about that was number one, there seemed to be a little bit of damage control going on, Let's be honest, but number two. Within the ZAP model Pro Day numbers, they're adjusted by point zero five. We add that to the forty time because often we'll get faster times at pro days, a little home cooking. And what's funny is that if you make those adjustments to Tait, you get a pretty similar forty as his clock time. Now, look, this change is absolutely nothing in the ZAP model for Tait. Kind of I mean, there is a chance that Tait now goes lower in the NFL draft because of this. Honestly, I'm not sure why he even ran if he was in this vicinity for the forty, since he was already likely to be a high end pick. But regardless, if he falls a few spots in the draft because of this. Number one, I think that's silly, but number two, it could impact his ZAP score just slightly. I'm calling him out today because, yes, he was a loser at the Combine, but no, I wouldn't really care that deeply about what happened there. I think Tait's a good prospect. I don't think he's as elite as the other Ohio State guys who have come out over last half decade or so, but he's a very good prospect. Seth mcgallan was a really interesting winner at the Combine this year. For those who don't know him, he's a running back who kind of went all over the place in college. He started in Oklahoma in twenty twenty, was dismissed due to legal issues which were eventually dropped, took some time off, went to Butler Community College, transferred to Mexico State, where he played with the aforementioned Mike Washington, and then he finished things off in twenty twenty five in Kentucky. Considering he started in twenty twenty, Yes, he's old. He's over twenty five years old actually, which is incredibly uncommon for a running back and should make us not go crazy with him. But I thought he had a good combine. His vertical in broad jumps put him in the ninety nine percentile on BURS score according to Player Profiler, and he ran a four four nine forty at two hundred and fifteen pounds. That's a great speed score. He was arguably the most athletic running back in this class, behind Mike Washington. Again, I think the age profile here, it's definitely a huge red flag. You should not prioritize him early on in your rookie drafts, but McGowan is definitely something that you should keep an eye on. Kenyan Sadik absolutely destroyed the combine at tight end. I haven't talked about a ton of tight ends because I've been so focused on running back and wide receiver. But Brandon Gadoula and I we've been working on the modeling side of things for the position and we're in a great place with it now. Actually, on Wednesday, I'll be sending out a newsletter about that new tight end model. You can check that out by signing up for the free newsletter lateround dot com. But Sadiq had a one hundred percentile forty in speed score while also crushing his jumps I mean he tests is basically the best tight end athlete, at least one of them in combine history, and I would imagine that his draft capital is going to rise as a result of that. Sadik looks good in the tight end model. If he goes top ten, he'll have a real shot to land in that legendary performer category. But right now he's just an elite producer. His production profile has gotten some heat and it's not flawless, but the model doesn't see it as terrible either. Now, another tight end the model really likes is Eli Stowers, and this isn't even influenced by late round coo David Kitchen, who's a big Vandy fan. Stowers was six four two and thirty nine pounds of the combine and he ran a four to five one forty that gave him a ninety fifth percentile speed score, and then he showed off a freaking forty five and a half inch vertical by far the best of the combine. Breakout score is one of the inputs in the tight end model too, not just the wide receiver one, and it's based on receiving yards per team pass attempt, and Stowurs score is one of the best in the class, and it's actually better than Sadik's. There's a lot to like about his profile. Those two tight ends, they look like the clear best two according to the model. They both slayed the combine. The final player I want to talk about today is Jenaium Price. Now there's still some chance that Price ends up as my RB two in this class if he gets the draft capital and if no other player in this class gets that capital outside of Jeremiah Love. But there's very little chance that I'm gonna be high on him, that I'm gonna like Jenireum Price more than the market. There's so much missing from his production profile because he played with Jeremiah Love, and I get that. I talked through that in the Prospect Guide at length. But here's the thing. If we're gonna make excuses for Price, reasonable excuses, we need to fall back on something objective and tangible to feel good about a strong investment. And the combine did Price no favors. In my opinion. He was listening at five eleven two hundred and nine pounds in college. At the combine. He came in at five eleven two hundred and three pounds. That's not nothing. When players are lighter than expected, you hope they run a faster forty than you expect. You I hope that's the reason. But Price had an incredibly normal four four nine that resulted in an incredibly normal ninety nine point nine speed score. He had the second best explosive run rate in this class across his career, that's according to PFF data, but that speed didn't necessarily match up with his speed score. I'm just concerned about this profile. I think it's really reasonable to be concerned. You have arguably the worst production profile and this entire draft class, and it's for a player who tested as just an above average athlete. There's a lot of projecting that has to go on here, and maybe that ends up working out. Maybe every single excuse ends up being totally valid. But to me, Price is going to have to find the perfect landing spot for me to get excited. Now, there were a lot of other players of the combine this year. I could have talked about a lot of different guys, like, for instance, I think Skyler Bell had a great combine. McKay lemon apparently had bad interviews. But I wanted to shout out who I think deserved to be shouted out the most, and now we just have to wait for these Pro Day numbers to come rolling in. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are bestwarching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be talking about some broader combine takeaways in the Late Round show this week over on YouTube. That'll be on Wednesday at noon Eastern YouTube dot com slash at LATEROUNDFF and then it's a mailbag week, so i'll have that on Friday. I'll talk to you guys then