854: Week 16 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha, j J Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode eight hundred and fifty four of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. I feel just okay with how last week went with the sleeper show the quarterback streamers. They were all pretty usable, though none of them were amazing. Deontay Forman didn't see the workload that I thought that he'd see. Josh Downs was a massive disappointment, and Chris Rodriguez didn't really get that much work or at least do that well. Despite Brian Robinson being sidelined, I at least nailed the Raiders backfield situation, DeMarcus Robinson found the end zone, and ty Chandler was a freaking monster. It was a below average week overall, though it was also a really weird week in fantasy football. Let's hope for a more predictable one here in Week sixteen. We'll begin by looking at players rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues who you might consider starting this week, and we'll start with some admittedly average quarterback streamers. I talked about Joe Flacco in the fifteen Transactions episode. He's been hovering that seventeen point mark during his three starts, and those three games were against top half opponents by justin points allowed to quarterbacks. He's been in good matchups well. This week he gets another top ten matchup against the Texans. Flacco's thrown it down the field at a higher rate than the other Browns quarterbacks this year, and Houston ranks fifth and air yards per attempt allowed this season. They've also given up the ninth highest completion percentage on fifteen plus air yard throws. So there's a chance for a big play from Joe Flacco in this game, so he could score some points in chunks. The downside right now for Flacco, though, is that this game lost a little appeal with the news that CJ. Stroud's unlikely to play this weekend. We'd rather have a back and forth shootout and that's less likely with case Keenum under center. But Flacco's still an OKQB two type this week. Gardner minshew once again, he's an option this week. I do have some fear that this could go south if Michael Pittman doesn't play, but if Pittman goes, which actually could happen based on some early week reports. If Pittman goes, I'd be okay with Minshew. The Colts have a pretty average team total this week, and Atlanta's the ninth best matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. Minshew has been a QB one and two of his last three. He's been a top fifteen option in weekly scoring in three of his last four. He could get it done again this week. Now I hesitate to say this, but I do think that Derek Carr is kind of in this bucket too. I'd probably lean the other two quarterbacks over Car, just because the inconsistencies that we've seen from Car this year. But the Rams are the eighth best matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed this season. The matchups at least there, and Carr looked a little bit better in Week fifteen. I do think he's more of a desperate play though. At running back. Let's go back to a fifteen Transactions running back, and that's Justice Hill. As I mentioned on that fifteen Transaction show, the Ravens have used Hill much more in their hurry up their two minute offense than Gus Edwards. According to Fantasy Life's data, Hill has played on seventy six percent of Baltimore's two minute snaps this year. Edwards he's at thirteen percent. That could matter against San Francisco because the forty nine Ers are five and a half point favorites. I mean, Hill can see work even when that game's close. I'm just saying that if this game goes south, if they're trailing, he's gonna be on the field more than Gus Edwards. And the forty nine Ers are third in the league this year and adjusted target shair allowed to running backs, meaning teams are targeting their running backs at a higher than average rate when they face the forty nine Ers. So Justice Hill is actually okay in some instances this week. I've got two game script related plays this week too. The first one Tajy Spears. Spears, as usual, could have a natural chance to just see a high target shair. Prior to last week, he had seen a double digit percentage target share in seven straight games. The Titans get Seattle this week. The Seahawks are road favorites. Seattle's also an above average team and adjusted target shair allowed to running backs, which could help Spears in the passing game and they're the tenth best matchup and adjusted Fantasy points allowed to the position. Now, I don't Adore Spears this week, but he's in that high end RB four ranger, so you might be able to play him. And then the other game script back is Kenneth Gainwell. The Eagles are eleven and a half point home favorites this week against the Giants, and the g Men rank is an above average matchup for running backs by justin points allowed. This is really just to play on a positive game script. If Philly gets up, if they're leading by a lot of points, we might see less DeAndre Swift and more Kenneth Gainwell. Gainwall's seen at least a twenty two percent running back rush share in each of his last three and he's played at least forty percent of the team snaps in those games. It wouldn't surprise me if those numbers are a little bit higher this week if this game goes how we think it's gonna go. Moving on to wide receiver, I'm gonna talk about Tyler Boyd again. I did on the fifteen Transactions episode, and he's technically at fifty one percent rostered, but I think it's a worthwhile callout. Pittsburgh's been one of the worst teams against slot players this year when looking at numbers like yards per route run, and Jamar Chase is likely sidelined. That could at least raise Boyd's target shair a little bit, and in a plus matchup, it can make them viable. Now. I know that Josh Downs burned me, burned us last week and Michael Pittman's trending in the right direction for this week, but Atlanta is a great slot matchup for Downs. They've given up the third highest slot target share this season and they've allowed one of the highest yards per route run rates. Maybe Downs has hit some rookie wall maybe he's banged up a little. It was definitely disappointing that he couldn't come through last week in a plus matchup, but I'm gonna trust the talent profile here and say that he's a solid sleeper. Josh Palmer didn't see a huge target shair last week, but he ran the second most routes for the Chargers and he had a good end of game stat line. Keenan Allen didn't practice on Wednesday, and the Chargers get the Bills this week. More than likely it's gonna be a pass heavy script for LA I don't think you can on touchdown production, but eight to ten targets is definitely in play for Josh Palmer this week. That makes him a sleeper now. I've gotten to Kate otten a lot this year because his route participation is one of the best in football at tight end. Only George Kittle has a higher route participation in his offense. He obviously isn't the first look for Tampa Bay with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin there, his targets per route run is actually one of the lowest that you're gonna find. With that being said, Kate Oughten's out there, he's running routes, and Jacksonville's an average the plus matchup by justin points allowed to tight ends, so he's fine enough as a cross your fingers type of option. The better play, though, at tight end, in my opinion, is Hunter Henry. The Patriots face Denver and the Broncos are the second best matchup for tight ends by justin points allowed. This season, Henry has back to back nineteen point outings, and he saw a nice spike and target share last week up to twenty nine percent. His route participation has also been higher for New England over the last month and a half, so to me, he's the obvious tops stream at tight end this week. Now moving on, it's time to look at players rostered and zero to ten percent of Yahoo leagues. As I always say, I generally hope that you don't have to start these guys, but you never know. I've got two quarterbacks for you here. Tommy DeVito is one. I don't feel great about it, but Philly's been pretty bad this season in the secondary. They rank is the second best opponent for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. The Giants likely won't be able to play conservatively in this matchup because they're big underdocks that could benefit to Vito. That's all I really got for him. Nick Mullins is the other quarterback, though You've got a good supporting cast for Mullins with Justin Jefferson back. There's a decent over under in this game against Detroit to forty six and a half, and the Lions are the fifth best matchup for quarterbacks by justin points allowed. I like Nick Mullins more than Tommy DeVito because this is a pretty friendly game, so I think you have to like Mullins as a deep option. Now at running back, I think a lot of people might go to Latavius Murray this week with the Bills monster favorites against the Chargers, and I can understand that Murray's fine, But don't sleep on Tie Johnson either. Johnson's actually seen a better running back rush here and rout participation rate over the last two weeks compared to Latavius Murray. I think Murray has a touchdown upside, But if this game does get out of hand, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a lot of Johnson towards the tail end of that game. So both of these guys work, but I want to call out Johnson so you don't forget about him if you're searching in a super deep format. As we know, the Chargers defense has been brutal. Now keep an eye on the Raiders and the Colts backfields this week. If Josh Jacobs or Jonathan Taylor and Zach Moss can't go, then we might see Zamir White and Trey Sermon become reasonable plays. But for the record, I think we might see more Mir Abdullah if Josh Jacobs doesn't go. Because the Raiders get the Chiefs this week, they're not likely to see the same game script that they saw against the Chargers, and a Mir Abdullah is the pass catching back in that backfield. But at the time of this recording, it does sound good for Josh Jacobs and both of those Colts running backs. We'll just see what happens now. Wide receiver I like Wandel Robinson this week. The Eagles are second in the NFL and slot target share allowed, and they've given up by far the most slot yards this season. That's where Robinson has run eighty one percent of his routes. He's also hit an eighty percent round participation in each of his last four games. He's probably just a high floor option, but that's okay in this range. Another slot player who could be interesting in Week sixteen is Parker Washington. Zay Jones is banged up. Washington wouldn't likely be pushed to the perimeter because he's a slot player, but it would mean that if Jay Jones doesn't go, Washington could be forced into more looks out of the slot. That's especially true when you consider that Tampa Bay has allowed the eighth highest target share to that area of the field, and they're one of the least efficient teams at defending the slot. I'd rather play Washington if Trevor Lawrence goes, but at least understand that the matchup is there for him this recording. I'm not sure what's gonna happen with Christian Watson and Jaden Reid. They didn't practice on Wednesday. If they don't go, that would open things up for Dontavian Wicks. He continues to impress during his rookie year. He's leading the Packers in yards per route run and he would be a full time starter. If Reid and Watson are out, the matchup could be better, but he'll be out there running routes for the Packers. And then, lastly in this tier, let's talk about Arizona Real Quick. Markis Brown is dealing with a heel injury. Let's pretend he doesn't play this week and against Chicago. That would leave Michael Wilson in his eighty eight percent route participation from last week to continue being a starter. But then also there's Greg Dortch. Dorts ran around on seventy one percent of his routes last week, but he finished with a similar target share as Wilson. Both of those guys would have some opportunity against a relatively beatable Chicago secondary. I'd probably slightly prefer Wilson over Dortsch, but I do think that's more of a ceiling play between the two. Now, at defense, there are a good number of streamers to choose from this week, so I'm just gonna go through the d defenses rostered in under sixty percent of Yahoo leagues very quickly, just to give you some options. Green Bay gets Carolina, and each of the Panthers' last eight opponents have finished with at least seven standard Fantasy points scored. Houston gets Cleveland. I would like Houston Moore if Stroud goes, but it doesn't sound like he is. But Flacco, despite being an okay option in fantasy, he's thrown one to one in three interceptions over his last three starts. Chicago's defense ranks in the top ten in the league in pressure rate since the trade deadline, and they get an Arizona team that's a lot about three sacks per game. With Kyler Murray under center, this year, Seattle's likely facing Ryan Tannehill. I think the Rams still work against New Orleans, and you might even get away with using Washington against the Jets, especially if Zach Wilson doesn't go, which is a crazy thing to say. But that's it for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't fit to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. I got the Mailbag episode dropping tomorrow and then another episode of Late Round Perspectives. I'll talk to you then