1015: 15 Transactions for Week 2

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacherasa. Hey je zacher reson.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone?

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode oney fifteen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: The Crown is yours.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler New York call eight seven to seven eight Hope n y in Connecticut called eight eight eight seventy nine seven seven seven seven eighteen plus and most stage eligibility restrictions apply ends December thirty first see terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions. It's a fifteen transactions episode. We've got a lot of moves to make before Week two hits, so let's do it.

00:01:07
Speaker 2: Add Hollywood Brown.

00:01:08
Speaker 1: So the Chiefs are kind of weak at wide receiver, right, Now Xavier Worthy has a shoulder injury that he's dealing with. Rashi Rice he suspended for the first six games of the season. Well, now he's suspended for five more games. So Kansas City's gonna have to rely on Hollywood Brown and that's exactly what they did. In Week one against the Chargers, he had a forty two percent target share. He caught ten of sixteen targets for ninety nine yards. Now, he's not going to maintain that type of volume, but he was very clearly the top target in this offense one Xavier Worthy went down. And another thing to note here is that according to Pro Football Focus, Hollywood Brown ran fifty two percent of his routes from the slot in that game against LA He's never finished the season with at least eight games played with a slot rate above forty percent. That's the role that we've seen Rashie Rice thrive in in this offense. Now, Brown probably won't be a winner across the entire season because eventually Rashi Rice will be back and eventually, hopefully, cross our fingers, Xavier Worthy is fine too, but we could get some short term production from Brown. That's why you need to add him. Off the wire this week, sell Travis Kelcey. Now, look, it's no secret I wasn't very high on Travis Kelcey entering the season, and then in Week one.

00:02:24
Speaker 2: He had a usable performance.

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Speaker 1: He had that long touchdown against the Chargers, and you might be wondering, was Xavier Worthy injured, Rashi Rice suspended? Why would we trade away Travis Kelcey. Well, the idea here is that the market's more bullish on Kelsey than I am, because the market understands that those pass catchers they're not available. And while he might see a target share bump, I'm still concerned. Kelsey finished Week one with those guys not in the lineup with a ten and a half percent target share. It was the first time that he was below an eleven percent target shair in a game since Week three of twenty seventeen. So even without Rashi Rice, even without Xavier Worthy, he still couldn't see a high target share against the Chargers. And it'd be one thing if this were prime Travis Kelcey, but he's gonna be thirty six years old. In October, he saw his yards per rout run rate, his yards after the catch per catch rate.

00:03:17
Speaker 2: They both fell last year.

00:03:19
Speaker 1: Maybe he can get by on volume, But what happens when this wide receiver room looks better and healthier? Because his stat line looked fine, I think now's an opportunity to get something out of Travis Kelcey.

00:03:34
Speaker 2: Hold Jaden Blue.

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Speaker 1: So I took plenty of l's last week, especially within this podcast this episode, but Jaden Blue might be the biggest L of all. Last week I mentioned that Jaden Blue was rostered in forty percent of Yahoo leagues, and I said that it should be closer to eighty percent. And then the Cowboys in Week one made him a surprise healthy scratch. So I look like an idiot, But when I take a step back, I'm not that surprised that all of that went down. He's a Day three running back and he missed a lot of camp due to injury. I didn't think that he would be a healthy scratch, But in hindsight, I don't think it was completely unpredictable. Now, about a quarter of the managers who drafted Jayden Blue they've dropped him now, and I'm sure more are going to be doing the same. But don't be one of those managers. Javonte Williams he saw a bell cow workload in Week one for Dallas. He did nothing to ruin that in the short term. Some see Williams as an obvious cell. I think he's more of a hold. But look at Miles Sanders. What did Miles Sanders provide for this Cowboys offense. He got caught from behind on a breakaway run that was his only successful run by EPA, and he fumbled the ball away during a crucial point in the game. We have years of recent data pointing to Miles Sanders not being a very trustworthy running back, even if things don't come to fruition for Jayden Blue this year. This is the exact type of stash that you on your bench in season long leagues. He's a rookie, so there's the unknown in this uncertain upside, and he brings an element to that backfield that doesn't currently exist, which is the shiftiness in speed. So I would keep blueing my roster and if he was dropped in your league, I think he's a great end of bench stash.

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Speaker 2: Add Kaishan Booty.

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Speaker 1: So when Kaishan Booty came out, does that model actually liked him quite a bit. He was a Day three prospect, but versus where he was drafted, the model.

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Speaker 2: Did like him. Some of you might remember that.

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Speaker 1: Now, Booty's NFL production through the first two seasons of his career has been kind of booty, But he had a really solid Week one, and I think that's noteworthy given all the changes that this Patriots team has seen year over year. He ended Week one against the Raiders with six catches for one hundred and three yards on an eighteen percent target shair He was top twenty in air yard share across the wide receiver position across the league. Now, keep in mind Booty's still only twenty three years old. He entered the NFL early, so after that performance, I wouldn't want to keep him on the waiver wire in most twelve team leagues. By Chris alave So. The Saints may have a quarterback problem, just a long term quarterback problem.

00:06:17
Speaker 2: But one of the.

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Speaker 1: Things to love about this offense, this is what I talked about during the offseason, is pace. Kellen Moore was an offensive coordinator in the NFL for five seasons before taking this head coaching gig.

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Speaker 2: In those campaigns, his.

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Speaker 1: Team's never finished the season with fewer than sixty five plays per game. For contexts, last year, the average team ran sixty two point two plays per game after Sunday's games were over, No team in football ran at a faster pace than the New Orleans Saints, and that translated to more passing volume. Spencer Ratler had forty six pass attempts. The highest pass attempt tally for Saints quarterback last year was forty two. This is really good news for the pass catchers, specific Chris Alave. He saw absurdly good peripherals against the Cardinals. He had a thirty one point seven percent target share. Now his seven point seven averaged up of target that wasn't great, but he could be a PPR machine in this offense. So if the Alave manager they're looking at that seven catch fifty four yard line and they're seeing nothing special, you might be able to get in before a bigger performance inevitably hits. And it helps that the Saints play in a division where we could see some good offensive performances.

00:07:31
Speaker 2: Add Juwan Johnson.

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Speaker 1: So Chris Alave is not the only Saints player that you should be going after this week. Juwan Johnson definitely needs to be added off the waiver wire pre Monday Night Football. Only Trey McBride as a higher route participation rate than Juwan Johnson At tight end. He ran around on ninety six percent in New Orleans dropbacks. That translated into a twenty six point eight percent target share and fifteen point six PPR points. Like I just said, New Orleans runs at a fast pace, there could be a lot of passing volume in this offense this season. You cannot leave Juwan Johnson on the waiver wire, especially if you need some tight end help. Ad Cedric Tillman. So last week on the Late Round Fantasy Football show, if you listen to that, it's in the podcast feed now. But if you listen to that, or maybe you watch it over on YouTube, I went over some look ahead waiver wire ads and one of those ads was Cedric Tillman and here we are.

00:08:28
Speaker 2: The Browns traded.

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Speaker 1: A Mariy Cooper after Week six last year. That allowed Tilman to step in and get more work in that offense. He then completed four games before his season ending injury. In those games, he scored eighteen twenty nine, twenty and eight PPR points. That was an eighteen point six PPR points per game average, and it was on a twenty two percent target chair per game rate. Meanwhile, during those exact same games, Jerry Judy, his teammate, scored three, thirteen, fourteen, and twenty six PPR points. He averaged fourteen point one PPR points per game. His target chair per game was just below twenty percent. In Week one, Tilman and Judy played the same number of snaps, they ran the same number of routes, and they saw the same number of targets. Tilman scored sixteen point two PPR points, Jerry Judy eleven point six. Let me put all this another way. Since Amari Cooper left Cleveland, Cedric Tillman has completed five games with Jerry Judy. Tilman's target share has been higher, and he's outscored Jerry Judy and four of those five contests. This really is a continuation of how I felt about Jerry Judy over the offseason. I thought that he was overrated and Tilman a little bit underrated, And I think Week one just emphasized that even more. Now. The Browns an't gonna face the Bengals every single week. That's a beatable defense. But listen to their upcoming schedule over their next five games, they get the Ravens, Packers, Lions, Vikings, and Steelers. Those are bound to be some heavy scripts. And then after that stretch they get a Dolphins defense that was just man handled by Daniel Jones. If Cedric Tillman is out there, he's a priority off the waiver wire. Ad Harold Fannin. So since we're talking about the Cleveland Browns, a shift our focus to the tight end position and rookie Harold Fannon.

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Speaker 2: His first game was awesome.

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Speaker 1: He ended up catching seven of nine targets for thirteen point six PPR points and he had a twenty one point six percent target share. Now, I would be surprised if Fannon finishes twenty twenty five as a tight end one in fantasy. I like Harold Fannon a lot. I liked him as a prospect. I even met his mom over the summer, and she's awesome. I want Harold Fannin to crush it in the NFL, But David and Joku is still there. And then Joku ran nine more routes than Harold Fannon in Week one. It's just that most of the looks ended up going Fannin's way. Now, with that being said, Kevin Stefanski likes twelve personnel. He will use two tight end sets frequently, and we saw that in Week one. So I do think Fannin is a very usable piece. And there is that contingent upside if David and Joku were to go down or really any other injury in that offense to the pass catchers. And as I mentioned with Cedric Tillman, Cleveland had some pass heavy scripts upcoming that should help on the volume front. Add Dylan Samson, so we'll go one more Cleveland Brown now. During the summer, my rankings like Dylan Samson more than both Quinchawn Judkins and Jerome Ford. With that being said pre Week one, as we entered that Week one game, I thought the Browns were gonna use Jerome Ford more than they did. That was wrong advice on my end. We watched Dylan Sampson see a nineteen percent target chair and he scored seventeen point three PPR points. The crazy thing about Samson's usage in that game was that Ford actually played eight more snaps, he ran eleven more routes than Samson, but when Samson was on the field, they were just straight up feeding him. He's still out there in over half of Yahoo leagues, so I have to shout him out as a result. I know Quinn Shawn Judkins is set to return, but I don't think Dylan Sampson's gonna just go away, So I would be holding on to him or adding him if he's out there.

00:12:18
Speaker 2: Sell Deebo Samuel. So look, Terry McLaurin held out.

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Speaker 1: We knew he was going to start the season off slow, and that's what we saw in Week one. He had a thirteen point eight percent target chair. He was lower than that mark just once last year. Now Deebo Samuel's now in the mix. He's better competition than anything Terry McLaurin faced last year. But the target discrepancy that we saw in Week one between Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, that's not going to remain all season long. Samuel had a thirty four point five percent target chair and scored twenty two point six PPR points against the Giants. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that. He had awesome usage and he came through. But one slight problem was he did score eight points on one play.

00:13:00
Speaker 2: It was a rush. So his receiving numbers were good, just not great.

00:13:04
Speaker 1: This transaction is really just to say, if you can truly sell high on this performance, maybe package Deebo Samuel up with another player and move up to an elite wide receiver who underperformed in Week one.

00:13:15
Speaker 2: You should go for that. You should do that.

00:13:18
Speaker 1: Samuel is not someone that you absolutely need to get off of your roster, and I do like him in this Cliff Kingsbury offense. It's just that might have been his best usage that we're gonna see from him all year. That's a very real possibility. After all, it's just the sixth time that he's hit a thirty four percent target chair in a game, and it's the first time that he's gotten there since Week three of twenty twenty three. Add Quinton Johnston. One of the biggest surprises of Week one was undoubtedly Quinton Johnston. He's been labeled to bust through his first two seasons in the league. He scored almost twenty five PPERO points against the Chiefs with a twenty one percent target chair. Now, the favorable case for Johnston would be that he's a great red zone threat in lad looks like they may be continuing their pass heavier trend from the second portion of last year. They were a lot more pass heavy last year when Justin Herbert got healthy. According to NFELO, the Chargers that have pass right over expected a plus fifteen percent against the Chiefs. Now, that was surely driven a little bit by matchup, but even still it was good to see. Now on the other side of the argument for Quentin Johnson, the bad side is competition. Lad McConkie and Keenan Allen each ran a similar number of routes as QJ this past week. You have to imagine that McConkie, at the very least he's gonna earn the most targets on the team this year. There's a cap ceiling inherently for Quentin Johnston. Now, I'd still prefer both McConkie and Allen to Johnston, but after this performance, you should still be intrigued off the waiver wire. He's a former first round pick. I just wouldn't go nuts throwing a bunch of free agent budget at him. Typically, this type of profile doesn't turn into a league winner, just more of a bye week.

00:14:56
Speaker 2: Fill in by time Tracy.

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Speaker 1: If you want more of a high variance move this week, you could look at Tyrone Tracy. Fantasy managers are likely scared off of Tracy because Camp Scataboo. He's already getting looks out of the backfield, and Devin Singletary he played some snaps two and that might be really scared because Tracy only scored five and a half PPR points against Washington. Why would they want that? Well, here's the deal. Tracy operated as a bell cow for the Giants in Week one. He played about seventy four percent of the team's offensive snaps. He had a fifteen percent target chair, He had two thirds of the team's running back rushes. His usage was awesome. If that continues, better production's gonna come. Since twenty eleven, we've had over one hundred and forty instances where a running back played at least eight games and saw at least a sixty percent running back rush share and a ten percent target share. Those numbers are a decent bit below where Tracy was in Week one. Of those backs, only eight of them finished outside the top twenty four at the position. Only two of them were outside the top thirty. This is obviously assuming that Tracy can maintain his workload. That's far from a lock. But if he does He's gonna have better outings than this one, and I know that's a big if, but that's why this is a riskier move to make. I just think that right now he might be pretty cheap, so why not take on that risk. Ad Calvin Austen Aaron Rodgers looked competent in Week one. Calvin Austin. He was the number two wide receiver for Pittsburgh. He ran around on eighty eight percent of pittsburgh'sdropbacks. He scored seventeen p P points on a twenty one percent target share. When new quarterbacks are in the mix like this, I never want to ignore a potential connection. Maybe Aaron Rodgers really likes Calvin Austin, so look, the odds aren't in Calvin Austen's favor. I wouldn't be super super aggressive in adding him off the waiver wire, but I do think you should be looking at him. Ad elck eyamanor The Tennessee Titans offense was not amazing in Week one, but that was predictable. They have a rookie quarterback. They were facing one of the best defenses in football. This is where we need to focus on peripherals. Calvin Ridley, he led that team and snaps in routes run he had a thirty two percent target chair. He only scored six point seven PPR points, but he should be fine. I'd still be comfortable with Calvin Ridley, but don't sleep on elk Iaman or either. Iamanner was a really intriguing prospect who everyone thought was going to be a Day two pick, and then he ended up dropping and he went to the Titans on Day three. In Week one, he operated as Tennessee's number two wide receiver. He ran around on eighty two percent of the team's dropbacks. He was top fifteen among all wide receivers in air yard chair, and he also saw a twenty eight percent target share. A rookie wide receiver getting in to a twenty five percent target chair in week one is not common. Since twenty eleven, it looks like the only players to get there have been Pokinakua, Will Fuller, Jamar Chase, Zey Flowers, Rashad Green, Taj Sharp, dk Metcalf, Kyle Phillips, My Evans, and Lad McConkie. Now, funny enough, there are two Day three wide receivers on that list that came from Tennessee. But I can at least tell you that the ZAP model it liked elick Iamanner more than those players he was given a low risk draft capital delta. In that model, the model liked him a lot more versus where he was drafted. Strictly, from a process standpoint, when a rookie shows us something, let alone early on in the season, we should be going after him on the waiver wire. Not a lot of people are gonna be looking elk Iamanner's way because he only scored three point three PPR points.

00:18:34
Speaker 2: But you should add the Seattle Seahawks defense.

00:18:40
Speaker 1: Look, I think the Seahawks defense is good, and I don't think fantasy managers are totally aware. They finished Week one with the highest pressure rate in football. They pressured Brock Purdy on over sixty percent of his dropbacks according to next Gen Stats. This week they get Pittsburgh and that game has a forty and a half point total, and Aaron Rodgers is coming off a game where he was set four times on nine total pressures. And what I like about Seattle is that you could use them next week too, even if this week's not an ideal matchup, even if it's just okay, next week they get New Orleans, this could be a two week defense. So I was sitting here, I was all finished with a fifteen transactions episode in the newsletter, and then all of a sudden, I see the news that Tank Bigsby is traded to Philadelphia for a fifth and sixth round pick, and as a result, we have the first bonus transaction of the season. Now, obviously, Tank Bigsby becomes more of a handcuff to Saquon Barklay now, but this Jacksonville Jaguars backfield, it opens up quite a bit. Instead of a four headed monster that's what we saw last week against Carolina, we're now down to three and that makes this backfield a little bit clearer. Travis Etn gets the biggest immediate bump, or at least he should be able to maintain what he saw this past week when he saw sixty four percent running back rush. Share My guy bay Shall Tuton, who I love this summer, is my favorite Jacksonville Jaguars target. He's someone that becomes a more intriguing stash. I think he's gonna get a little bit more work this week, and if he shows out, he could just carve out a bigger and bigger role in that backfield. If you guys recall the ZAP model loved Bashall Tuton, but you.

00:20:19
Speaker 2: Know who else is ZAT model liked Laquin Allen.

00:20:22
Speaker 1: He had arguably the best pass catching profile of any running back in this year's draft class, and we already saw him with a role in this Jags backfield. He was on the field for eighty percent of their long down and distance snaps against Carolina, that's according to Fantasy Life data. And that's why this bonus transaction is to add Laquent Allen. I probably should have gotten too that earlier with ETN and Tuton rostered in a lot of leagues already. Allen's a more traditional ad, especially in PPR formats, but if base shall Tuton is available in your league, I'd prefer him for upside purposes. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are messaging for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening.

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Speaker 2: I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trends Episode