301: 15 Transactions for Week 8

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher reson. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharesen, the editor in chief at FanDuel and at Number five dot com. And this is episode three hundred and one of the Late Round Podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Week seven was a week to forget for a lot of us. So I'll spare you an introduction for today's show, because I'm sure a lot of you listen to this are tilting hard enough about some of the insane things that went down on Sunday. We'll just get right into things before looking at this week's transactions. Though the NBA is back. I'm not telling you to go become a big NBA fan because you're tilting so hard at the NFL, but I am telling you to check out Fandel's one million dollar MBA Clutch Shot contest that's happening tonight. Take your pick of Pelicans, Raptors, Lakers and Clippers stars and compete for your share of the one million dollar prize pool, including a two hundred and fifty thousand dollars first place prize all for just four dollars. All you have to do is fill out a nine man roster, turn on the game, and follow along using fandl's incredible live scoring feature. It's that easy. For more details, visit fandle dot com or download the fandel app today. Eligibility restrictions apply by Leonard Fournette. As I talk about every single week and almost every single episode of this show, yards correlate strongly to touchdowns. The more yards a player has, the more touchdowns he generally scores, and we can use that information when spotting regression. When a player has a whole lot of yards but he hasn't found the end zone a lot, generally speaking, he's probably going to positively regress. And that's where Leonard Fournette is at right now. Only three players in the NFL have nine hundred and more yards from scrimmage this year. Christian McCaffrey is one of them, Dalvin Cook is one of them, and the third one is Leonard Fournette. But the reason that Leonard Fournette isn't in their Tier and fantasy is because he hasn't found the end zone. McCaffrey has nine touchdowns this year. Dalvin Cook has eight. Leonard Fournette has won. Now this isn't me trying to say that Leonard Fournett should have just as many touchdowns as Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. They're in better situations. But he should also have more than one touchdown based on his rushing and receiving yardage totals. And this is through taking averages from the last five years of running back data. But using his yardage totals, he should have roughly five more touchdowns than he currently has. Even if you cut that by sixty percent, you're looking at eighteen more fantasy points across the season. That would give him over twenty PPR points per game. That would be elite production for Leonard Fournette. He has over ninety one percent of Jacksonville's running back rushes. He has a seventeen percent target share. You should want Leonard Fourdett on your fantasy football team. Sell Aaron Jones. Now on the opposite side of the yards to touchdowns conversion is Aaron Jones now has nine touchdowns this year, but his rushing and receiving yards tell us that number should be closer to four. That's the largest gap of has versus should have touchdowns in the NFL, And yes, context is always needed with this type of analysis. Don't think that I'm looking at this stuff blindly. Aaron Jones has seen the second most goal line attempts in the NFL this year, and he's in a pretty good offense, so scoring opportunities are going to be better in somewhere like Green Bay than in Jacksonville. But of the nine goal line rushes that Aaron Jones has, he saw six of the nine nice in two games without Jamal Williams. The first was against Philadelphia where Williams was concussed at the beginning of the contest, and the second was against Dallas, where Aaron Jones had a career day. And unsurprisingly, in those two games without Jamal Williams, Aaron Jones saw his highest snapshare of the season. When Jamal Williams has been active this year, Jones hasn't hit a sixty percent snapshare. With Jamal Williams, Aaron Jones has seen about sixty percent of Green Bay's running back touches. Without him, it's eighty two percent. So all this being said, with Jamal Williams active and in the lineup, we shouldn't expect Aaron Jones to continue to keep up this pace. We can't expect Aaron Jones to be a top five running back from here on out. Even though I love him as a talent, even though I think he's the best running back in that Green Bay backfield, I think you can sell him by Kenny Galladay. So, entering Week seven, Baby Tron was one of the few NFL wide receivers with at least a twenty percent target chair in every single game that they played this season. So of course, because Week seven was so wild, he had a four percent target chair against Minnesota. And I'm using this transaction to simply say that this stuff happens, and it makes a lot of sense to bank on the multi game sample of Kenny Galladay seeing a lot of work in this Lions offense versus one game, whereas quarterback may have liked a particular matchup, and with the Giants and Raiders upcoming on the Lions' schedule, Baby Tron should be able to bounce back right away. Ad Tye Johnson. So at the time in this recording, we don't know what's going on with Carryon Johnson and his knee. What we do know is that he was injured in Sunday's game and Ty Johnson took over that Lion's backfield. Ty Johnson should be added off the waiver wire no matter what the severity of carry on. Johnson's injury will tell you how much FOB you should actually spend on him by Tyler Boyd. So, like I said in my fifteen Transactions column this week, the Bengals offense is hot trash, but as a result, you shouldn't be paying a lot to acquire Tyler Boyd. But I do think that there's enough positive surrounding him right now to at least warrant some sort of by low transaction. He currently ranks in the top ten in wide receiver target share. He's seen at least sixteen percent of Cincinnati's targets in every single game this year. Boyd's actually had a twenty two percent share or better in all but two games. And we should always buy volume and fantasy football, it's what correlates to production. The targets that are going Boyd's way aren't as valuable as someone getting targets from someone like Aaron Rodgers. But that doesn't mean that we just push aside his volume, and we ignore it, especially when he's been underperforming recently. Over his last two games, he's caught just eight of twenty one targets. But over a larger sample, which is the first five games of the season, that catch rate was a lot better. We shouldn't let recency bias overshadow what Tyler Boyd is. And if you're worried about Boyd's potential if and when AJ Green returns, don't be worried because Boyd's actually average more points with aj Green historically than without him. To me, it's just always about buying volume, even when it's bad volume or mediocre volume, because generally speaking, when it's bad volume or volume for a player in a bad offense, that poor situation is reflected in the price that you have to pay to acquire that player. In other words, everyone knows that Tyler Boyd is playing in a bad offense. That makes it easier to acquire him. Sell Corey Davis. Look. I like Corey Davis, and I think that he's a good wide receiver. The problem is, I don't like his situation at all. Yes, he did have a twenty five percent target share on Sunday against the Chargers, and he did perform, and it was the first game with Ryan Tannehill. So maybe there's something between Ryan Tannehill and Corey Davis. But this is still a run first offense. We know what they want to do offensively. They're not going to want to put the ball on Ryan Tannehill's hands week in and week out. And there's a lot of competition on top of that. You have Aj Brown, you have Adam Humphries out of the slot. You have capable pass catching tight ends. You know, despite the fact that he had a twenty five percent target share, he still only saw seven targets on Sunday. It's because they have a run heavy offense. Maybe you're buying into this Tannehill narrative. I can understand it. It makes some sense. And maybe you're buying into the fact that this week they get Tampa Bay. That's a plus matchup for Corey Davis. To me, though, I would use those two things to try to sell Davis this week because chances are we're not going to see week in and week out consistency from a really good wide receiver add Kenny Stills. So it sounds like Will Fuller is going to be sidelined for some time with a hamstring poll, so that means Kenny Stills gets a big bump. He ended up playing about ninety four percent of Houston snaps on Sunday, which is the second most at wide receiver behind DeAndre Hopkins, and he had a fifteen percent target share. He has a thirteen point two average depth of target this year. That's about a yard shy of Will Fuller's. For all intents and purposes, he's going to take will Fuller's job. He's taking that role in the offense. So Kenny still should be a priority ad this week. And I don't mind Kiki Qt either. Buy Alvin Kamara. So according to pro footballdoc dot com, Alvin Kamara has a reasonable chance to play in Week eight and then all the while Drew Brees intends to practice this week. Maybe they both play in Week eight, maybe they don't. Either way, I still think this is a good time to buy Kamara. And honestly, if Kamara doesn't go in Week eight, you can probably get him for even cheaper because he's a buy in week nine. But we know that he's in the lead asset in fantasy football and with Teddy Bridgewater under center, his numbers have suffered, and four or five games played with Teddy Bridgewater this year, Kamara's failed to score seventeen PPR Fantasy points. He averaged nineteen point six and twenty three point six points per game over his last two seasons, and I think that he can get back to those levels when Drew Brees returns. The Saints and Teddy Bridgewater have been winning. That's great. Sean Payton's doing an awesome job, but it's not like the offense is the sole reason for that. Since Week three, which is when Teddy Bridgewater officially took over, they're fourteenth in yards per drive and their fifteenth and touchdown rate per drive. They've been a fairly average offense. Now that's good considering what they're working with, but it's not Drew Brees good. We know they're ceiling. With Drew Brees. We know they can be a top five offense, and with a better offense comes more scoring opportunities. Kamara's found the end zone in just one game this year. He scored twice against Seattle, and according to his rushing and receiving yardage totals, he should have about two more touchdowns. Than he currently has, make him one of the bigger positive regression candidates in fantasy football. And historically, kamaras outpaced has expected touchdown total because the Saints' offense has typically been good. So moving forward, it would be wise to consider Kamara as a locked in RB one in fantasy football, a higher end RB one because this injury doesn't sound severe. So if you can get him for cheap because of the injury and because of the bye week, I think you do it. Sell Todd Gurley. Yes, I know the Rams are playing the Bengals this week. That's one of the best matchups, if not the best matchup on paper. So if you want to wait to get rid of Todd Gurley, be my guest. It's hard to fault that logic, but I tend to play things more conservatively and not bank on matchups, especially when there's a clear sell high opportunity, and that's what you've got with Todd Gurley. Gurley's now finished as a top fifteen running back in each of his last three games played. But over these three games, he's found the end zone five times, and he's only had one hundred and eight rushing and seventy three receiving yards. Guys, he's averaged sixty point three total yards per game when the Rams have scored forty twenty nine and thirty seven points over this three game stretch. Now, historically, over the last five years of running back data, a running back with three hundred and eleven rushing yards and eighty one receiving yards they've scored roughly two and a half touchdowns. Gurley has those totals this year, and he has six touchdowns. And we've also watched Todd Gurley fail to reach a sixty percent running back rush share in half of his games played this year when he was healthy. Last year, he was handling eighty four point five percent of LA's running back rushes, and on Sunday he played a season low sixty point five percent of the RAMS snaps. You might say it was because the Rams were far ahead, but that's also the point. If the Rams are far ahead, Todd Gurley isn't used as much. That still hurts his fantasy total. It's smart for the Rams to do that, but it's not good for your fantasy team. All of this is to say that Todd Gurley's been a touchdown dependent fantasy app and that's not something that I can confidently bank on week in and week out. Add Mark Walton. So the Dolphins started using Mark Walton a little bit more before their bye week. He saw thirty five point three percent of the team's running back carries back then, and then out of the bye in Week six he had a similar share of thirty one point six percent, and then he has solid fourteen point three percent target share in that game. But then Sunday happened. Walton ended the day with a sixty point nine percent running back rush share, which was easily the highest mark of the season, and he had the highest snap share of any Miami running back. Now, Walton's probably not going to be a plug and play running back this year given the offense that he's in, but the running back position is not a very good position. It's tough to find depth, and with bye weeks here, you might be able to use Mark Walton at some point. By Tevin Coleman. So that game against Washington and San Francisco this week didn't bring a lot of production for the players, but we got to see some peripherals. Specifically, we got to see how that forty nine ers backfield would be split it's another data point to work with now. Matt Breida did miss a little bit of time in that game because he was being evaluated for a concussion, but even still, Tevin Coleman finished the day seeing over sixty percent of the forty nine ers running back rushes and over ten percent of the team's targets. That rush share was a season high and the target share was the most that he's seen since Week one. So Coleman's been back for three weeks now, he's not only led the forty nine ers in rush attempts with at least sixteen per game, he's also been the team's primary goal line rusher. Now San Francisco schedule does get a little bit tougher going forwards. They may not be as run heavy as they've been, but the peripherals are there for Coleman to be in RB two from here on out, especially if the forty nine Ers keep winning. Ad Dallas Goddard Week seven was a tough one to forecast, but at least Dallas Goddard someone that I mentioned a lot on last week's shows. At least Dallas Goddard was a thing. He ended up scoring a touchdown on a very nice sixty nine yards, and it was the fourth straight contest where he was able to hit a ten percent target shair. Remember last week's ten Trend show where I talked about this. Over the last four weeks where he's been healthy, Goddard ranks in the top twenty five and routes run at the tight end position according to Pro Football Focus, and he's played at least fifty nine percent of the team snaps in every single game. Prior to Week four. His highest snap share was fifty one percent. Basically, the way that I feel about Goddar is the same that I felt last week. He's probably gonna give you similar production as other tight end streamers would, but the upside is there something gonna happen to zach Ertz all of a sudden, Dallas Goddard would be a fringe top five tight end add Ryan Tannehill. So I don't think that you should be thrilled to use Ryan Tannehill this week as a streamer, but he's not an awful awful option. He's facing the Buccaneers and the Titans are two and a half point home favorites, and there's a forty six and a half point over under according to Fanduels Sportsbook, Tampa Bay's allowed a multi touchdown performance in each of their last four games played, and they've gone up against Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Allen. They rank eleventh in yards per attempt allowed despite going against those really mediocre passers this year, and they haven't really been able to get to the quarterback. They have the ninth worst sack rate in football. So with Tannehill looking competent in Week seven, I think he can give you some production in Week eight by Robbie Anderson. So the Jets offense just looked awful Monday Night against New England, but it was against the Patriots, they have the best defense in football. Robbie Anderson got the Stefan Gilmour treatment and as a result, he wasn't very productive. But that happens against New England and it should change through the rest of the season because New York over their next seven games, they get a Jalen Ramsey list Jacksonville team in Week eight, then they get Miami, New York, Washington, Oakland, Cincinnati, and then Miami again. That's over their next seven games. Five of those seven matchups are against teams that currently rank in the bottom ten and wide receiver fantasy points against, while the other two Jacksonville and Cincinnati, those are still beatable defenses. And don't forget I talked about this on the ten Trend Show last week, but before this New England game on Monday night, Anderson had been pretty good with Sam Darnold over his last six games. He had averaged nine targets, five point two receptions, eighty point seven receiving yards, and point seven touchdowns per game over that stretch. So don't let a down game against a really good New England defense change the way that you view Robbie Anderson. He's a great buy right now. Add the Detroit Lions defense. There are a few directions that you can go on the waiver wire this week, but Detroit is probably my favorite. They'll be playing at home a seven point favorites according to FANDLS Sportsbook, and they're facing Danny Dimes and Daniel Jones' last four starts, so all of his starts since his breakout game against Tampa Bay, he's thrown more interceptions during these starts than touchdowns. He's a four to seven touchdown interception ratio, and he's been sacked thirteen times defenses in general, so this includes the Tampa Bay game. They're averaging three point six sacks per game against Daniel Jones. That gives them nice floor each week, and that makes the Lions a nice play as heavy favorites. Okay, for this week's sixteenth transaction that you can't get in my fifteen transactions column over on number fire dot com, I'm gonna go a little Galaxy brain here. I'm gonna say to buy Melvin Gordon. Now, if you ask me, I think Austin Eckler is playing better than Melvin Gordon right now. I think ninety nine percent of people listening to this would agree, and every single metric tells us the same thing. But Gordon has seen eighty percent, sixty two percent, and seventy six percent of the Chargers running back rushes in his three games played this year, and he's hit an eight percent target chair in each of those contests as well. And he's also seen goal line work. And that's what the Chargers easing him back into things, or at least that's what we've been told. And look at the market right now for Melvin Gordon. Go log on to Twitter and see everyone including myself, hating on the guy saying that the Chargers will be better off without Melvin Gordon. Even though that kind of talk doesn't directly relate to fantasy football and how all player scores, it can change a player's market value, It changes perception. If people are down on a player in general, he's going to be easier to acquire in fantasy football. But the good news is he's seeing work in that backfield and Russell o'coon is probably back this week. So if there's going to be a time to buy Melvin Gordon low, if Melvin Gordon is going to rebound at all and be a usable fantasy asset, now is the time to buy him. That's going to do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round podcast. Make sure you are pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly ten Trend Show. Thanks for listening, everyone,